Talkin’ Padres 2024 hot stove

TRADE DETAILS
Padres receive: RHP Dylan Cease
White Sox receive: RHP Drew Thorpe (MLB Pipeline’s No. 85 prospect; SD No. 5), OF Samuel Zavala (SD No. 7), RHP Jairo Iriarte (SD No. 8), RHP Steven Wilson

Love this deal consummated yesterday for the San Diego Padres. AJ Preller used the top pitching prospect he didn’t like in the Juan Soto deal (Drew Thorpe) as a primary trade chip to acquire a front-of-the-rotation starter. RHP Dylan Cease is not as good as Corbin Burnes, but the Padres get two years of affordable team control without surrendering their top prospects.

Padres gave up three prospects and a reliever in the deal: RHP Drew Thorpe, a high floor soft-tossing top 100 pitcher with a 3rd starter ceiling; RHP Jairo Iriarte, a riskier high-ceiling top 100 pitcher and the key to this deal for the White Sox; OF Samuel Zavala, a 19yo lottery ticket; RHP Steven Wilson, a decent cheap reliever. If you are interested in winning, you would rather have Dylan Cease than what the Padres gave up.

This keeps the Padres competitive AND under the luxury tax, so they can reset after splurging and coming up snake eyes. Teams pay huge penalty amounts for being over certain tiers of payroll, and it’s difficult to get back under without tearing a team apart. For example, in 2020 the Red Sox traded RF Mookie Betts to the Dodgers and dumped LHP David Price as part of the deal. Red Sox ownership was no longer willing to pay the penalty for being over the payroll threshold, especially for a team that didn’t win. Red Sox haven’t been competitive since and currently are a mess.

Splurging in free agency sure ain’t what it used to be. Teams lose multiple draft choices and/or international draft money for signing free agents that rejected qualifying offers, especially when the signing team is over certain team-payroll tiers. That’s why the Yankees are locked-in with ace RHP Gerrit Cole now on the IL for ~3 months. GM Brian Cashman can’t sign LHP Blake Snell even though they desperately need him after losing out on Cease. The Yankees luxury tax on any Blake Snell contract would be 110%, meaning if they offer him $30M/year, the Yankees must also pay MLB another $33M in tax penalty. Plus, they lose their 2nd & 5th round amateur draft picks in the 2024 & international draft money [!].

That hurts, and it’s what happens when you spend yourself into a corner. What really hurts the Yankees is the Padres using trade capital (Drew Thorpe) from the Juan Soto deal to get Cease. If the NYY pitching staff falls apart, Soto is long gone after 2024. Padres dumped Juan Soto to the Yankees (because they had to) and acquired three pitchers who are going to fill out their 2024 rotation in Micheal King, Jhony Brito & Randy Vásquez. C Kyle Higashioka for CF Trent Grisham was an even swap based on the Padres need for a reliable veteran catcher; and Drew Thorpe reduced the Padres organizational cost of acquiring Dylan Cease to flame-throwing pitching prospect Jairo Iriarte.

The DSG bankruptcy in 2023 cost the Padres an estimated $60-80M in TV revenue, and caused them to operate at a financial loss of over $50M for the season. The death of majority owner Peter Seidler after last season reset the Padres onto a ‘get younger & cheaper’ trajectory. Padres GM grade: A+

The Padres are replacing veterans they lost with younger players, especially on the pitching side. The only opening day hole that remains is LF after trading Juan Soto, the rest they are filling internally. They even filled their manager vacancy internally, which I like.

Several years ago the Padres had the consensus ‘best farm system’ in baseball, but only Fernando Tatis Jr remains from that crop. The rest of those prospects were traded and most disappointed. This time around the Padres have drafted better & improved their player development, yielding a farm system that can feed more of its own talent onto their big league roster instead of becoming exclusively trade chips. It’s all about developing young talent in a way that helps a team win. It helps there is an organizational foundation now, because when AJ Preller arrived in San Diego there was little-to-nothing.

Trading Juan Soto to the Yankees helps the Padres because they won’t have the “will Soto resign” questions all season which was a distraction for the team in 2023. The Yankees get that headache in 2024. LHP Blake Snell was reportedly offered a 6-year deal at $28M/year by the Yankees in December, but refused it on the advice of his agent Scott Boras. Yankees then pivoted to RHP Marcus Stroman on a shorter deal.

Yankees, Giants, Angels & Rangers have been reported as being interested in the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, but no team wants to give up draft picks and international pool money for him on a short-term free agent deal, and no team will match the Yankees earlier offer for Snell. That’s how a professional athlete overplays his hand in looking for the big payday while not understanding the market and letting greed go to his head.

Those teams I listed as being in on Snell are it. Padres, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers are all taking a pass. No other teams are interested because 1) too expensive in dollars/win, and/or 2) too costly in draft capital. For what it costs in draft capital, you have to get at least a 4-year deal on Blake Snell. Maybe $20M/year at this point. Snell says he prefers the Angels. Rangers, Giants (& Yankees) need him more. Significant risk he busts.

If Blake Snell really wants to be an Angel, then he shouldn’t have retained Scott Boras (pic above) as his agent. Boras clients (Juan Soto, etc) go where the money is highest. I feel like Blake Snell is yet another case of an elite-level athlete who is very confused and it’s costing him dearly. At this point, he needs to think outside the box, possibly a deferred money deal like Shohei Ohtani with the Dodgers.

As a bookend, this is the first significant trade AJ Preller has made with the White Sox since he dumped RHP James Shields in 2016, eating half his remaining contract to get a prospect to go with injured LHP Erik Johnson. AJ Preller selected a recent international signee, not yet ranked on any organizational prospect list– Fernando Tatis, Jr and the White Sox agreed to it. Before long ESPN was asking, “Who is Fernando Tatis, Jr?” and that was the LAST time an old-school MLB franchise got robbed of a generational prospect. So it is fitting that the White Sox firesale from this failed era ends with AJ Preller getting just what he needs at a price he likes.

This winter I read a series of articles on Fangraphs written by their prospect guru Eric Longenhagen. For the record, I respect his method & scouting reports for young players whom I can’t see personally and don’t have time (or inclination) to research. One thing Eric Longenhagen admitted (that I very much agree with) is that player/prospect evaluation in the minors has taken a quantum leap in the last 5-10 years. It used to be so much guesswork and biased opinions of old school scouts, where now there is more raw data & video out there that can be analyzed & used.

This is good because it used to be that organizations such as the Yankees, Red Sox & Dodgers could hype their latest top prospects on TV and thus fool rival GMs into thinking they were better than they actually were. Today, input from analytic understanding fans on social media & blog sites won’t allow that crap to gain traction.

Prospect rankings are much more of a science now, with the clear understanding that a few organizations have outstanding farm systems, while most will be mediocre, spotty, or weak. Top prospects across organizations aren’t equal and depth is just as important in terms of winning. Top talent is identified more readily in this ‘stathead fan’ era, but sleepers still do exist, and that’s a GM focal point in most player-for-prospects deals.

It’s not that teams are less willing to trade prospects today, it’s teams valuing their prospects more correctly (more highly) than in the past. It started for real when the 2016-17 hot stove season froze out non-superstar free agents, and the analytic ‘Moneyball’ philosophy was proven correct. Young players were more highly valued by most GMs by then, and so the market for veteran free agents cratered. Guys who thought they were getting 4/$80M were settling for 2/$16M or 1/$8M. Free agents who refused qualifying offers were shunned by a majority of teams that valued draft picks & young prospects above expensive veterans.

There was huge player anger at MLBPA leader Tony Clark in spring training 2017 for him signing CBA’s (since 2003 when tax thresholds were first set) that allowed a de facto salary cap on free agents through a Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) on team payrolls by MLB. A competitive balance or luxury tax was first levied upon the five highest-payroll teams from 1997 to 1999, in response to Florida Marlins ownership buying a World Series in 1997 and then selling off the team before Opening Day 1998. That was a wild card team that got hot in October and so their title wasn’t respected by many baseball purists.

In the 2000’s a system was put in place to ensure the biggest spenders would eventually be reigned in by CBT penalties, while the pretenders could collect MLB revenue sharing and be profitable with 90-100 losses per season. Commissioner (and former Brewers owner) Bud Selig was hailed as a genius for this and installed into the HoF for keep the peace among the owners during this boom period in MLB revenue due to satellite TV & internet streaming.

What the old system of MLB free agency (1977- 2002) always relied upon was another willing spender. Today, at least a third of MLB franchises are in survival mode. The A’s don’t have a home, Marlins never draw, Rockies can’t develop pitchers at high altitude, Brewers, Pirates, Reds, White Sox, Tigers, Royals have cheap owners… When a top talent goes on the market, it’s always the same teams getting the cream. The smartest teams budget & plan for it.

The Rays are the best at developing and dealing their young talent. Rays say they can’t afford to pay top arbitration salary, so they deal early and look for sleepers in other systems they’ve scouted. They are the best at the modern Moneyball game. Everybody respects them, but they never quite have enough in October. The last homegrown ‘small-market’ team that won it all was the Royals in 2015. That was less than ten years ago and yet that era of baseball seems a lifetime away.

It’s fear that drives many of these decisions. Fear of being wrong and crucified in the media & on social media. Fear of losing your job. GMs who operate based on fear are doomed. You can’t win like that. It’s the boldest and most ruthless organizations that are able to exploit the fears of those who are just happy to survive. In between the haves and have-nots, there are a few interesting teams like the Rays, Orioles & Diamondbacks who know what they are doing. It makes this unpredictable game more predictable than ever in terms of who will win in 2024. Is that progress? It depends on who you ask.

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Banned from Fakebook (again): Super Tuesday edition

Preface: Before I had a chance to post this paragraph below, I was locked out of my Facebook account ~9:30 AM CST on Super Tuesday.

Super Tuesday notes– the “Uncommitted” campaign is a DSA strategy to save Joe Biden. It is meant to corral leftist-leaning voters (ie- young kids) back into the Democratic Party. Since Trump isn’t an option for this massive voter constituency, it can’t be allowed to find a 3rd party. Understand that the DSA, Greens, etc, orbit the Democrats; and the Libertarians, Teabaggers, etc, orbit the Republicans. That is the two-party strait-jacket of modern bourgeois politics which always shifts to the right.

Here’s the text from the three (3) emails I sent to Facebook tech support:

What’s the deal with FB locking me out? I entered the code you people emailed (multiple times before it was accepted as valid), but then wasn’t allowed to reset my PW.

I keep entering a new PW and it’s strong, but your system fails to register it every time. Remarkable

It’s Super Tuesday, and I’m blacklisted (again) on Facebook because Mark Zuckerberg is a fascist tool. This is why people call it Fakebook. To Zuckerberg: Make your peace with Trump, he’s your daddy now.

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  • BTW, I’m an “antisemite” for calling Mark Zuckerberg a fascist. I’ll update here when/if my unexplained Facebook ban is lifted. Thank you to all who love & support what I do!!

Wed 06 Mar 2024 07:47 AM CST

Tried to log in again, but the still locked out. Here’s my email message to FB in response:

Your code never works. Why can’t you people just admit you’re blacklisting me? Weak

Mon 11 Mar 2024 12:25 PM CDT

I’ve been banned before and have learned to deal with it. Facebook always allows me back because THEY NEED ME. It is exactly the same as a capitalist’s need for a worker to exploit. My posts create interest & provoke thought, and you don’t get that with most people on social media. From personal friends I get mostly family pics, pets & vacations, which is fine, but it’s usually nothing enlightening or thought provoking. For most users, social media is telling your group what your life is like. For celebrities (& wannabes) it’s about shaping an image & brand which they can sell. Celebrities sell to corporate as that is the BIG money which can satisfy them.

I have changed the dynamic of social media by being who I am and connecting with my preferred celebrities though comments & the ‘like’ button. It’s how I talk to my friends, except these people are more worldly & experienced. Always be respectful, since there is a level of admiration, but don’t worship them as idols, which only patronizes & cheapens them. Artists seek to be understood above all else. If you can respectfully understand an artist they will always approve it.

This is how I converse with artists and others on social media. I respect talent and what it does, with the understanding that I’m also at that level, perhaps even beyond. The blacklisting issue is what sets me apart. I was never allowed to break through commercially as a musical artist in any way. No record or distribution deal, no venues available for me. Therefore no tours or merch for the fans. I don’t apologize for it, I just explain it. I publish myself here, so when I’m cut off from social media, I still have an independent online organ.

This always allows me a voice, so fans can understand what’s going on. Being banned from Facebook is a blessing in many ways. Social media can be addictive, and action in the real world is what counts most. Social media is a tool to describe those activities to the world without having to tour & travel. It allows an alternative explanation of events. Without corporate backing, social media is a critical tool for connecting with fans. The contradiction of course is that Facebook (and all the rest) are corporate entities tied into US intelligence, police & the military– and these institutions are the enemy of peace & freedom.

A long time ago I tried Twitter and quickly abandoned it. I should have cancelled my account before Elon Musk bought it, but whatever. Twitter was 120 characters-a-post back then and far too limiting as compared to Facebook. It is mostly gossip and too much white noise, with little depth of thought. It’s like everyone on Twitter is trying to be superficially clever, or make a witty joke. Twitter is for people who don’t want to read too much, and all this is why it didn’t appeal to me.

YouTube has turned me down (sonically) and attacked my videos with algorithms since I started in 2011. Obama/Biden had their Intelligence fingers on me instantly, it was unmistakable. If YouTube is going to turn you down, de-list, and shadow-ban you, then just post thumbnail videos for each song and forget about it. That’s all you can do until things seriously change with YouTube. I have videos for every song I’ve released, a film, interviews, etc, but they are extremely difficult-to-find in searches, and all my ‘likes’ and ‘views’ get deleted. My YouTube page looks abandoned because I had to.

The reason I’m so viciously attacked by corporate is because I’m too good. I’m better than all that corporate fake rock they’ve been jamming down your throat (and up your ass) for the past 20+ years. I kick ass over all that and for the correct reasons. Nothing in modern popular music can beat me– and they know it. That’s why I’m at the top of the blacklist.

To continue with my social media history, I used Disqus for awhile because it was the best option for posting on the WSWS when they started allowing reader’s comments. After becoming a prolific commenter in that forum for years, I was shadow-banned by Disqus on the WSWS, just as the MeToo campaign was coming into being. My comments on Russia Today were also through Disqus, but they weren’t shadow banned. They were selectively deleted at times by RT, but not shadow-banned.

Shadow-banning is when you post and it shows up on your computer/device, but not on anyone else’s. You know you’re shadow-banned when you no longer get any responses or likes to what you post. Disqus clearly didn’t want me posting as Ric Size on WSWS articles. Too influential in the wrong direction. Today, all my WSWS comments have been scrubbed away by Disqus. I have many screenshots to prove their existence. I also dominated the ESPN.com & MLB.com forums, until comments were abruptly ended around the same time period- largely due to my activity in both cases.

This is what you face for being critical of authority. Julian Assange is in prison on trumped-up charges for exposing the criminality of the ruling elite. Facebook is owned by Mark Zuckerberg, and he is owned by Uncle Sam, which is the unaccountable & hidden power behind this blacklist. Expose a blacklist and its authors to the light, and they will shrivel-up in their own ugliness.

All I can do is ask my fans to unite and take action against this evil force known as capitalist imperialism. It is ruthless, unapologetic & stupid. Its arrogance knows no bounds with this class of parasitic billionaires that has been created in the past 30 years. They only answer to their own greed & avarice, and must be beaten down by the masses to be made to yield. Until then, the blacklist & all this suckitude will continue…

Tue 12 Mar 2024 09:15 AM CDT

Logged into FB this morning for the first time in about a week, and PRESTO I’m back. No explanation given to me for being banned. Told you.

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The NCAA & NIL $$

Ed O’Bannon, a former UCLA Bruins basketball player who led his team to a national championship in 1995, saw his college-era image on the cover of a video game, and got upset. Then he got a lawyer, eventually bringing an antitrust class action lawsuit against the NCAA which would change college sports forever. The suit was first brought to court in 2009, finally tried in 2014 as Ed O’Bannon v NCAA, with a verdict declaring that college players are entitled to own & sell their Name, Image & Likeness (NIL) rights for money. The NCAA appealed, and as this case bounced around higher courts, its ruling was amended in the process until it finally was appealed to the US Supreme Court, which denied to hear the case in October 2016.

It was a slow rollout for NIL rights in their inception. No one in the NCAA knew how to do this under these new legal guidelines. Finally, in July 2021, NIL rights became codified into NCAA bylaws, and universities could now allow their student athletes to be paid. NIL rights means endorsement money. Micheal Jordan was the first modern athlete who was highly charismatic & marketable in this sense. NIL deals go to players who can win, but also those who are marketable. Winning makes you marketable in sports. Having a famous father who was/is a great athlete helps even more.

Bronny James is the eldest son of NBA superstar LeBron James. Bronny James is a freshman at USC, averaging 5.0 pts, 2.8 rebs, 2.4 asst coming off the bench for the 6-12 Trojans. Yet, Bronny James NIL valuation is $6.1M, the highest in college athletics. “Will he go to the NBA?”, the pundits ask. My reply, “Why should he? He’s the six million dollar kid, paid though a corrupt system of glorified paternalism. As far as making money goes, it doesn’t get much easier than that. Stay in school, son.”

Of course this NIL money doesn’t disappear once the athlete goes pro. But in turn, it’s harder to win in the NFL & NBA, the competition is tougher & more skilled. It’s easier to win and be a star in the NCAA, so staying makes sense with the money involved. Case in point is Angel Reese, the LSU women’s basketball star in her junior year.

Angel Reese’s NIL valuation is $1.7M. She has at least 15-20 deals where she sells her NIL rights to a business that uses her for their commercials, advertising & marketing campaigns. This allows any university booster to directly pay an athlete through legal channels. It’s an advertising expense for the booster’s business, and it’s NIL money for the athlete. Slush funds for top recruits are no longer necessary.

The rookie salary for top WNBA draft picks is ~$70K/year. Angel Reese is considered a top WNBA draft pick, but why come out early after her junior year, when she’s winning at LSU and making NIL money that dwarfs her expected WNBA salary? Obviously there will be endorsements for her as a pro, but it’s easier guaranteed money if she stays.

NIL money incentivizes athletes to stay in college, so now we have 5th-year & even 6th-year seniors with NCAA eligibility. Iowa basketball star Caitlin Clark just announced she will forgo her 5th year of eligibility and declare for the WNBA draft. It wasn’t an easy choice for her.

A lot of the men’s athletes aren’t good enough for the NFL or NBA, but they can help their college team win, and that means NIL money for them. This is what the transfer portal is all about. Free agent college athletes looking for the best deals for themselves, at the expense of team & university. This has hurt college football & men’s basketball irreparably. There are very few college football & basketball programs anymore.

Here’s Tom Brady in The Athletic last November: “I actually think college players were better prepared when I came out than they are now. Just because so many coaches are changing programs, and I would say there’s not even a lot of college programs anymore. There’s a lot of college teams, but not programs that are developing players. So as they get delivered to the NFL, they may be athletic, but they don’t have much of the skills developed to be a professional. When I played at Michigan, I essentially played at a college program that was very similar to a pro environment. When I see these different players come in, they’re not quite as prepared as they were, and I think the game has shown that over the last 12 to 13 years. I think things have slipped a little bit.”

The blueblood, win-at-all-cost universities are all-in on paying athletes NIL money. Take a look at this list below, published less than 6 months ago, which gives the reader a good indication of which college teams are going to be good this year. These are the going rates for top players, and if your school isn’t paying, it likely isn’t winning.

Top 20 College Athletes With The Highest NIL Valuations
Published on September 15, 2023

Bronny James – $6.1M (LeBron’s eldest son) USC hoops freshman
Shedeur Sanders – $4.1M (Deion’s son) QB junior Colorado
Livvy Dunne – $3.2M gymnastics LSU junior
Arch Manning – $2.9M (Peyton’s son) Texas QB freshman
Caleb Williams – $2.6M junior USC QB
Travis Hunter – $1.8M soph Colorado CB
Evan Stewart – $1.7M Texas A&M soph WR
Angel Reese – $1.7M LSU junior hoops
Drake Maye – $1.5M QB UNC, redshirt soph
Bo Nix – $1.4M QB Oregon, QB senior
Marvin Harrison Jr. – $1.4M WR Ohio State junior
Michael Penix Jr. – $1.3M QB Washington senior
Bryce James – $1.2M (LeBron’s 2nd-eldest son) Committed to Duquesne University
Quinn Ewers – $1.2M QB Texas, redshirt soph
Hansel Emmanuel – $1.2M Austin Peay freshman hoops
Jordan Travis – $1.2M QB FSU redshirt senior
Nico Iamaleava – $1.1M QB Tennessee freshman
Jared McCain – $1.1M V Duke freshman hoops
Flau’jae Johnson – $1.1M LSU women’s hoops freshman
Blake Corum – $1.1M Michigan RB senior

NCAA cheating used to consist of boosters creating a slush fund to entice top recruits to attend their university. Suitcases of cash, money secretly wired into accounts, expensive cars, and other perks were funneled to players through the boosters using hidden means to evade NCAA enforcement & sanctions. Bluebloods are allowed to get away with an acceptable level of this because their programs have great traditions of winning which makes money for everyone involved. Pony Exce$$  (2010) is the ESPN ’30 for 30′ film that best examines this style of “old school” cheating in NCAA football.

ESPN’s ’30 for 30′ film series was perhaps the best thing that network has done in the 21st century. For those too young to remember, ESPN used to show regular sports, new sports (X-games, monster trucks, Asian kickboxing, etc), PLUS the highlights of all the MLB, NBA & NHL games. That was ESPN’s staple programming from its 1979 inception through 2000.

When ESPN started broadcasting Texas Hold Em poker in the early 2000’s, the network changed forever. Gambling & fantasy sports became mainstream, and thus football boomed, because the NFL is by far the highest-wagered sports book, with NCAA football second. This is when Stephen A Smith, Michael Wilbon, Chris Russo, etc, rose to prominence by screaming about sports on ESPN.

Classic ESPN at least had Bob Lea going Outside the Lines once in awhile, in an effort to educate sports fans. But when ESPN became Skip Bayless & Pat McAfee yacking everyday, all day, sports journalism became so degraded that it wasn’t taken seriously anymore by most sports fans. ESPN’s decline is a large reason why so many Americans have cut the cord. ESPN is a large part of your cable/satellite TV bill, whether you want it or not.

Sports are expensive. It costs a lot to broadcast & televise these games (NCAA & professional league), and that is reflected in the number of commercials you see during a game on TV. It is reflected in the salaries of the players in the professional leagues, the high cost of team merchandise, and now in the Name, Image & Likeness money available to college athletes.

Epilogue: What we have in college sports now is a few great individual performers and then a bunch of crap. Not only are coaches & players coming & going at will, but major conferences are falling apart. USC & UCLA are abandoning the Pac-12 to join the Big 10 in 2024, which will then have close to twenty teams from coast to coast. The travel & logistics of all this scream “DON’T DO IT”, but it’s about to happen and it’s all about money. The SEC is the power conference everyone else in the NCAA is chasing. The SEC is absorbing Texas & Oklahoma from the Big 12. Gee, I remember when Texas was in the Southwest Conference and Oklahoma was a Big 8 football powerhouse under Barry Switzer. Back then, coaches stayed at their schools forever and their teams were arguably better and certainly more entertaining to watch. It’s the big money that turns everything to crap.

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US Supreme Court v 14th Amendment

The 14th Amendment established birthright citizenship & freed black slaves. It also contains this paragraph below, which specifically applied at the time to President Andrew Johnson who sought to conspire with Southern Democrats after Abraham Lincoln was assassinated. President Johnson attempted to use his veto power to block congressional efforts to carry out the Reconstruction of the South.

“No Person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two thirds of each House, remove such disability.”

As the WSWS has written, ‘This constitutional language leaves little room for interpretation. Trump was “an officer of the United States”— indeed, the chief officer— who took “an oath… to support the Constitution,” but who then “engaged in insurrection or rebellion.” The clause also bars from public office those who have given “aid and comfort” to an insurrection. Donald Trump is therefore barred from holding “any office” by the Fourteenth Amendment, just as Confederate president Jefferson Davis was banned from running for US office after the Civil War.’

FILE PHOTO: U.S. Supreme Court justices Amy Coney Barrett, Neil M. Gorsuch, Brett M. Kavanaugh, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Sonia Sotomayor, Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John G. Roberts, Jr., Samuel A. Alito, Jr. and Elena Kagan pose for their group portrait at the Supreme Court in Washington, U.S., October 7, 2022. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo

Last week the US Supreme Court heard arguments from both sides over a Colorado ruling that Donald Trump should be disqualified from the ballot on the grounds of him violating the 14th Amendment on 1/6/21. The US Supreme Court is packed with far right zealots & Trump appointees, so their decision has already been made– just like ‘Bush v Gore’ in 2000. If the US Supreme Court needed to rule that ‘2+2=5’ then it would find some technicality or distort whatever reality is necessary to confirm that majority opinion. There are no checks & balances on government power, just class interests concealed under the illusion of democracy.

Thousands of MAGA Trumpists swarmed over the Capitol building on 1/6/21 with the purpose of stopping the certification of the 2020 election for Joe Biden. Trumpists attacked Capitol & DC police and were chanting “Hang Mike Pence!” Scores of cops were injured and five people died as a result. Donald Trump told his mob to “Fight like hell or you won’t have a country anymore.” That’s as clear-cut a violation of the US Constitution as it gets, and everyone saw it on live TV. Trumpists act like they are so persecuted, but Joe Biden & his Democrats protect Trump more than anyone.

The State of Colorado’s oral arguments are legally sound, but have been met with hostility & indifference from the justices. Clarence Thomas & Samuel Alito directed a barrage of politically-loaded questions at the attorneys for the State of Colorado, as compared to Trump’s lawyer who rambled technically & incoherently for a few minutes & then quickly signed off with no questions from any of the justices concerning their paper-thin defense [!]. Basically, Trumpists are threatening another insurrection if the Supreme Court upholds Colorado’s decision.

The US Supreme Court is being asked to make a decision it doesn’t want to make– a sure sign it has outlived its usefulness. The State of Colorado (and its voters) are seeking clarity, while the Supreme Court tries to dodge & duck the issue. Justice Clarence Thomas & his wife Ginny were part of the 1/6 insurrection, yet he has not recused himself due to conflict of interest. These are the ethics of the SC, where justices consider themselves (& Trump) to be above the law in a constitutional system of ‘checks & balances’ that is nothing more than out-of-control corruption.

There are six Republican appointed justices and three Democrat appointees on the SC. None of the Democrat appointees are challenging the Trump narrative. No discussion of Trump’s failed coup attempt and what it means. All the Supreme Court wants to do is deflect, split hairs, and keep Trump on the ballot. That’s pre-decided here. The critical question the SC is avoiding is, “Did Trump attempt an insurrection to overthrow the US Constitution on 1/6/21?”

If the Supreme Court refuses to examine the issue of whether Donald Trump incited an insurrection on 1/6/21, then what purpose do they serve except to protect privilege? Two states (Colorado & Maine) have defined Trump’s actions as insurrection. The Supreme Court’s job is to address that issue directly and with impartiality. They are doing neither.

Trump lawyers argue it’s up to Congress to rule on this matter. It’s been three years since the House voted to impeach Trump for insurrection and the Senate acquitted him behind Republican majority leader Mitch McConnell who himself was a target of the Trump mob on 1/6. Nothing since from Congress, or Joe Biden, so it now falls to the Supreme Court. A clear & Constitutionally-sound ruling by the US Supreme Court is required to maintain any illusion of democracy in American politics, yet it will not be allowed to happen. What is being illustrated now is the complete rot & corruption of capitalist politics.

To be fair & balanced, the 25th Amendment, proposed by Congress and ratified by the states in the aftermath of the assassination of JFK provides the procedures for replacing the president or vice president in the event of death, removal, resignation, or incapacitation. Clearly Joe Biden is mentally incapacitated. Disqualification of Donald Trump under the 14th Amendment is entirely justified, just as is removing Joe Biden from the office of President due to his diminished mental capacity. It is entirely reasonable that the people of the Untied States should expect any Presidential candidate to take a mental exam to prove competency, and it is likewise reasonable to bar from public office those who willfully violate the Constitution.

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December 8, 2023

How do US representatives who tried to overthrow the US Constitution avoid jail & all accountability for their criminal actions? It’s because Joe Biden & the Democrats have covered for them in the name of ruling class “bipartisanship.” Democrats enable fascists while attacking & censoring true leftists. That’s how Biden’s proxy war in the Ukraine (and now ethnic cleansing of Palestines in Gaza) are being sustained, despite their unpopularity among American working people & youth.

Both Democrats & Republicans agree we need to be at war with China over Taiwan sometime in the near future. Obama/Biden ‘pivoted to China’ after the “war on terror” under Bush/Cheney became an untenable US foreign policy doctrine to sell to the American people.

Donald Trump pushed past that on the far right, by reneging on the long agreed-upon doctrine of One China, which was Richard Nixon’s foreign policy baby to open up China to US business interests. It got him re-elected in 1972 despite strong anti-war & youth opposition on Vietnam, and capitalism flourished through the 1970’s into the early 2000’s because of it.

US recognition of One China was a conscious ruling class policy of economic globalization to lower costs for American corporations and make them more profitable. It brought humanity the internet, mp3s & social media– but it has wrecked our planet with pollution, deforestation & runaway global warming which isn’t being addressed at all. The US military can’t win a world war for many reasons, foremost are: 1) Russia & China (and Israel [!!]) have nuclear weapons and will use them if their existence is seriously threatened, and 2) US businesses depend on the world for supply chains & cheap labor.

Cheap oil means affordable global transportation, and that’s what all the fighting is about in the Middle East and why the Zionist Netanyahu regime of fascists are always proclaimed to be inseparable partners in US foreign policy, which is imperialism. That’s what the IDF’s ethic cleansing of Palestinians in Gaza is about. To Zionists. a multi-ethnic state living in peace is out of the question. This racist ruling ideology is opposed by many Jews in Israel, the US & beyond, but this fact is never mentioned in the American fake media.

Zionists are today’s Nazi’s, as is Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev, whose fascist cabal are the direct political descendants of Nazis under Adolph Hitler. Zelensky’s war over Crimea with Russia is unwinnable, yet Joe Biden & his CIA Democrat cohorts keep doubling down on it. Republicans will hold up funding in Congress for awhile (when it is politically convenient) to get more anti-immigrant militarization for the US-Mexico border.

Canada is our friendly neighbor to the North, historically a safe haven for Nazis who fled Europe after WW2. Death squad democracies under Truman (Dem) & Eisenhower (Rep) administrations in Latin America harbored WW2 Nazis under US protectorate. They were used to teach the CIA their methods for becoming known globally as Murder, Inc.

This capitalist economic boom period ends with WW3, unless the youth & working class unite to overthrow capitalism before it’s too late. Workers of the world, unite– by joining the Socialist Equality Party in whatever country you live, or form one if there isn’t one yet. The SEP is the only political party of Trotskyism, which is the true socialism of Karl Marx & Friedrich Engels.

All other ‘left’ variants, from the DSA & the labor union bureaucracies, are the fake left. So is PBS, CNN, the New York Times, Washington Post & Rolling Stone magazine. Pussy Riot is fake, they reek of CIA provocation as its members have been designated “foreign agents” by Russian president Vladimir Putin. Hillary Clinton was Pussy Riot’s biggest fan back in the day. Pop music & entertainment have been thoroughly fake since American Idol & 9/11.

For publishing these truths, you are branded a ‘class reductionist antisemite’ by the fake left, which is well-funded by the CIA Democrats. The Black Lives Matter & MeToo campaigns also originate with the CIA Democrats.

MAGA Trumpists are the ultra-nationalists on the far right. This means white supremacists, holocaust deniers, anti-vaxers, Christian fundamentalists, and other reactionary variants of militia anarchism. They all prefer to let their fists & guns do their talking when it comes to politics, since their limited talking points never hold up.

Historically speaking, December 8 is the day after the date that lives in infamy. What was the American workers’ mood on December 8, 1941? It was anger, which was exploited to the benefit of the American ruling elite. Working kids got drafted and sent overseas to fight & die, while rich kids got deferred. Just like Bill Clinton and just like Donald Trump. They’re all cowards. Enabled bullies, actually.

The danger is this sociopathic class controls all the levers of power, and Trump has fascist shock troops at his behest & command, which the world saw on January 6, 2021. That was a coup attempt by Donald Trump & his fascist cabal which extended to all branches of government & the military/police, and intended to establish a presidential dictatorship.

This threat to human democracy needs to be overwhelmingly crushed by an internationally united working class & youth. That’s the path to victory and saving our planet (& ourselves!) from self-inflicted destruction. The work is in party building and the development of political conscious & united leadership of the working class. Social media is what unites us, so all platforms must be democratized to be de-Nazified.

Leading antisemite Elon Musk bought Twitter last year and changed its name to X. He’s had to cash in more than a few bitcoins to do it, but for Musk it’s worth it. Elon Musk is a Nazi, who pretends he’s a prodigy. He’s acts as if he’s intelligent, but he’s a proven philistine– even in his so-called fields of expertise. Elon Musk needed a big platform he could dominate on every level, so he overpaid for Twitter, which was estimated at around $12B, but Musk was forced to pay $44B.

Elon Musk had to recoup lost value somehow, so he has encouraged his fascist followers by inviting Donald Trump back onto the platform– which the Donald refused. Trump now rants exclusively on his Truth Social platform. Trump, Inc is always lying, ripping people off, and going bankrupt– that’s the Trump business cycle. His hardcore supporters are on Parlor & Breitbart spreading their filth.

A sign of global financial turmoil is the crypto bubble being re-inflated, with bitcoin now at ~$44K after starting 2023 at ~$17K. Bitcoin as ‘digital gold” is a myth, but it’s being hyped as a ‘safe haven’ & ‘good investment’ in the face of weakening currencies. Crypto has to get past SBF/FTX  & CZ/Binance before Elon Musk can sell his crypto garbage as good coin again. The bitcoin market is being pumped again, for sure, but there is still strong opposition among powerful US business & political interests. As mentioned before, US intelligence is the Black Hand in crypto.

Finally, December 8, 1980 was the day John Lennon was murdered in NYC. Beatles fans around the world mourn this tragic anniversary every year by trying to celebrate what John Lennon’s existence brought to humanity. Pop culture & art changed with the Beatles, and the idea that there are deranged people out there who want to kill that is deeply offensive to anyone who thinks & feels.

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Bluebloods

Bluebloods means privileged status. Until the very end of the 20th-century AP sports-writers were the pollsters who decided the NCAA football champion. Then came the BCS (one letter too many), and now CFP.

This writer has been advocating for a 16-team playoff format since the days of the AP writers picking the winner. Next year the CFP goes from 4 to 12 teams, which will make a lot of this Michigan shit easier for others to swallow.

Conor Stalions was a “low level” Michigan football staffer who advanced scouted opposing teams in clear violation of NCAA rules. He’s been fired by Michigan in the wake of revelations of grainy images (fan screenshots) of Conor Stalions disguised in Central Michigan University coaching garb, standing on the sidelines wearing sunglasses at night to advance-scout Michigan State.

Apparently, no one has been able to contact Conor Stalions since his firing, and here we have this game of cat-and-mouse Michigan gets to play with the NCAA.  The University of Michigan is intentionally not cooperating with an open investigation by making Conor Stalions unavailable for questioning by independent media writers, legal experts, etc. Michigan gets the NCAA nod because they are the bluest of the bluebloods. Plenty of  Wolverine alumni running the NCAA.

Bluebloods rake in BIG buck$ and alumni elites are INTENSELY interested. Football bluebloods are Michigan & Notre Dame, distantly followed by USC, Texas, Oklahoma, FSU. Bluebloods always get favorable treatment because they have prestigious journalism & law schools with alumni who will do anything to support winning in football & basketball.

Basketball bluebloods come from traditions of winning and include Kentucky, Kansas, UCLA & North Carolina. These programs always get the legal wink & nod from the NCAA & conference commissioners. Big 10 commissioner Tony Petitti is in an impossible situation, where all the other football coaches are pointing to evidence of egregious misconduct in sportsmanship, but bluebloods rule.

What Michigan did was clearly against NCAA rules and everyone has seen some of it. There’s a lot more that isn’t being shared because the rule is you don’t punish bluebloods, especially during a championship run even when they’ve been caught cheating to their advantage. It’s Alabama, Oregon, Texas, Washington (in alphabetical order) that are hurt most by Michigan cheating. What it’s really about is who makes the final Football Final Four.

Tomorrow (Friday) is apparently a court holiday and I’m not a lawyer, so I don’t know how that precisely impacts a potential University of Michigan legal challenge to an unfavorable Big 10 ruling. Everyone is expecting a ruling by tomorrow, with Michigan @ Penn State on Saturday. A ruling on punishment has been delayed as long as possible in this matter, all to the advantage of Michigan football.

The Pac 10 is dust with UCLA & USC joining the Big 10 next year, so Oregon & Washington are expendable in the Michigan advanced scouting scandal. Texas is a blueblood, but they don’t trump Michigan. Alabama is SEC so forget about it. My prediction of punishment is that Michigan gets a slap on the wrist fine, and Jim Harbaugh stays on the sidelines & at practices. You can’t take away a potential championship season that Michigan cheated so hard for, they’re bluebloods.

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Sam Bankman-Fried trial update: Where’s the money?

The SBF trial finished last week with the boy wonder himself testifying, as his attorney Mark Cohen comfortably led the defendant through a benign & naive narrative they are trying to spin to the judge & jury. Below is a courtroom sketch of Mark Cohen, the completely incompetent, ineffective & overpaid defense lawyer for SBF, as depicted by CoinDesk courtroom artist/reporter Nik De.

The SBF trial was paused Monday through Wednesday last week (Oct 23-25), because Mark Cohen was testifying with lots of press, cameras, reporters, etc, in another Manhattan courtroom– specifically in the Donald Trump v. New York fraud trial. That is a civil trial in its punishment & compensation phase, as Donald Trump has already been found guilty of fraud.

DOJ prosecution cross-examination in the criminal trial of SBF is expected to begin Monday (tomorrow), with the trial possibly ending next week, allowing the jury to deliberate a verdict. If convicted, the judge is going to come down hard on SBF, with an appeal highly unlikely to change anything, meaning SBF will need a Presidential pardon to get out of jail. SBF spread a LOT of money around into dark places and Trump loves NFTs, so it could happen. The other murky, unanswered question is, “Did SBF already cut a secret deal?” Its answer is unknowable to the public, but known in inner ruling circles.

Trump pardoned dozens of criminals (pic above) at the end of his Presidency simply because they paid his under-the-table extortion money, or they pledged their undying loyalty to the Donald.

Over $8 billion in customer funds is still missing from the FTX/Alameda fraud. Everyone in crypto assumes SBF has the stolen crypto stashed away in hidden wallet(s) somewhere in dark cyberspace. SBF was allowed plenty of time to do that– as FTX collapsed last November, as he was extradited back to the US from the Bahamas, and surely after he was allowed more-than-generous bail terms by a lenient Manhattan judge who let SBF stay with his parents in Palo Alto, California and work online, even after repeated violations of his bail terms.

Obviously US intelligence was monitoring & scrutinizing SBF’s online activities, but none of this (or its findings & conclusions) have ever been revealed to the public. What was SBF doing online during those months he was out on bail?

Without question, SBF moved massive crypto transfers from the time he was held by the Bahamian police, up until his bail being revoked after he published the personal diary of key DOJ witness (& former girlfriend) Caroline Ellison, who was SBF’s partner in crime. She pleaded guilty, as did a few others at FTX/Alameda, so their prison sentences will be much lighter. But the question still remains, “Where’s the money, SBF?”

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A year to Election 2024: The political outlook

One year to election day 2024 and the field is set. It will incumbent Joe Biden as the Democrat nominee and Donald Trump for the Republicans. Biden is running unopposed because no opposition (particularly from the left) is allowed within the Democratic Party or its corporate media apparatus. Any criticism from the left is branded as racist, misogynist and/or anti-semetic by the philistine fake media.

The experiences of 2016 & 2020 have taught the Democrats that primaries can be dangerous to elite interests. Bernie Sanders undermined Hillary Clinton in 2016, and as Wikileaks reported, the Democrats rigged that primary to ensure her nomination over a fake left figure in Bernie. In 2020, Joe Biden got hammered in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada before the Democrats pulled the machinery in South Carolina and rigged the vote for him from then on. By Super Tuesday 2020, the path had been cleared for Biden to grab the nomination and Bernie had dropped out– again.

The Democratic Party last year approved the reordering of its 2024 presidential primary, replacing Iowa with South Carolina in the leadoff spot to ensure a smooth nomination process for Joe Biden. In 2020, Biden received only 14% of the caucus vote in Iowa, then 8% in New Hampshire, and 19% in Nevada, which allowed Bernie Sanders to take an early delegate lead. It’s those pesky voters who screw things up for the Democrats in the primaries and this is how they are brought under control by the ruling establishment.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump took over the Party in 2016 and has held it in a stranglehold since. Not even the events of 1/6/21 can dissuade his most emboldened supporters who are given platforms throughout the right-wing media. The rest of the Republicans are a combination of career bureaucrats & businessmen who have no appeal to grassroots Republican voters. Everyone from Mike Pence to Ron DeSantis to Vivek Ramaswamy is a stick figure. None of them can speak to voter frustrations with any degree of empathy or believability, and thus they have been left by the wayside despite attempts from conservative Republicans to prop them up as legitimate alternatives to Trump.

The fact is both parties aren’t happy with their presumed nominees. Roughly 70% of Democrat voters don’t want Joe Biden to run again, and over 60% of Republicans don’t want Donald Trump as their candidate– yet this political re-match is set in stone. Joe Biden is semi-senile & non-responsive to the problems facing most Americans such as rising living costs, declining wages, attacks on democratic rights & imperialist wars abroad. The truth is Joe Biden supports attacks on workers & more wars everywhere. It’s how he plans to stay in power.

As for Trump, the problem is a lack of political backbone anywhere in two-party politics. Neither major party has the courage or the will to fight fascism, so Trump is allowed to do whatever he wants, including an insurrection & coup attempt on 1/6, and is never held accountable for his actions. This is what makes him so dangerous. As much as he is criticized & vilified by the fake left, Trump is seen as an essential backstop for capitalism in its late-stage crisis. If democratic forms of rule are no longer able to contain & control the working population, then dictatorial forms of rule will become the law of the land and that’s where Donald Trump comes in, as he’s being protected by powerful elites who understand this dynamic.

So where does that leave ~85% of people, who see no choice in either party or its pre-selected candidates? It’s time to organize rank-and-file workers across all industries for an all-out political fight against the two-party system. This will take the forms of massive workers’ strikes in heavy industry, education, health care & the rest. This is the ONLY way the workers can make their voices heard. It must be collective & internationally coordinated action with the goal of overthrowing capitalist parasites who rule every industry & business, and establishing worker control over production in all sectors.

This is the only way to stop the madness in Israel/Gaza, Ukraine/Russia, Taiwan/China, etc. It is the US government that is the world’s largest sponsor of terrorism, inequality & violence against civilians. It is Wall Street that commands this, in order to extract ever greater profits for itself. It’s the CIA & US intelligence apparatus that coordinates with fascists in Kiev & Tel Aviv to silence dissidents & bomb hospitals. It’s been like this since the end of WW2, and we have now reached a point where if it isn’t stopped, we will be hurled into a Third World War by madmen with no ethics.

The only viable political option outside of the two-party system is the Socialist Equality Party (SEP) and it’s daily organ the World Socialist Web Site (WSWS). All the other so-called “left” parties are frauds whose purpose is to funnel workers & youth back into the orbit of the Democrats. This includes the Green Party, the DSA’s, and the corrupt trade unions which are run by bureaucrats who sell out their rank-and-file constituents every time. The bottom line is that nothing is going to change for the better until workers & youth unite internationally and take matters into their own hands.

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Crypto’s day in court: SBF trial preview

In the future, everyone will be famous for 15 minutes. — Andy Warhol

Crypto is now dying, largely because of SBF’s FTX/Alameda fraud. The crypto venture capital has now gone to AI. This upcoming trial is a first (& perhaps last) for crypto: a high profile criminal case that exposes the entire industry as a Ponzi scheme.

Bitcoin was founded after the 2008 sub-prime loan banking crisis, on the white paper notion that if you do some fancy math & computer programming, you’ve created digital gold. It was a brave new world in finance back then.

People who believe this anti-materialist nonsense don’t understand where money comes from. Money comes from human labor producing useful commodities. Nothing else. Of course, capitalism allows capitalists to monopolize money and use it as a tool of class warfare to exploit the working class. This is how obscene levels of wealth are accrued with massive inequality.

Crypto posits that a digital token can be minted and that it has value, even though there is nothing behind it. Gold is real, and it has use value. Thus it can be used as a store of monetary value, and has been for millennia. Modern governments issue fiat currency, which since 1971, floats on the value of that nation’s economy. Stronger economies have stronger (more valuable) currencies. Since WW2, the US dollar has been the strongest currency, globally.

But in this era of global competition, China & Russia are increasingly unwilling to allow themselves to be shackled to US dollars for international commerce & exchange, especially with its non-US aligned trading partners. Oil is this most prized commodity, and Russia continues to cut back its production & output available on world markets, which is causing gas prices to rise globally. Furthermore, Putin has convinced the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia & Iran to do the same. That worries US military planners.

Joe Biden has been exhausting US strategic reserves just to keep pump prices below $4.00/gallon. Once gas gets above that, American consumer anger increases, as the price of everything goes up.

This affects crypto mining, blockchain storage, processing, etc, as these activities are energy intensive. When electricity prices reach a certain level, bitcoin is no longer feasible. Interest rates have been increased by a hawkish Federal Reserve to cause a recession and weaken the labor market to control worker wage demands.

This macro-economic shift in ruling class policy (from near 0% interest rates for over a decade) has sent crypto into a death spiral. US intelligence agencies are keeping bitcoin alive because they have a use for it, but otherwise there is very little government support for crypto after the FTX collapse in November 2022. That’s why the SEC is now taking a hard line.

The hedge funds have moved into AI for their speculative urges. This is why the writers & actors strike must be crushed so ruthlessly. Venture capital is waiting to use AI in Hollywood to create its own vision, without having to pay actors. Just scan someone’s body and have them sign their likeness rights away, etc.

It’s the same vague concept for these libertarians & capitalists, whether its crypto or AI. Promote it as freedom & the future. Remain indistinct about rosy ideas such as effective altruism, while keeping the operational details secret. Keep all the money.

Everyone wants to get rich. Everyone wants to be famous & cool. This is how it’s pitched, and when so many people are desperate and see no future, this will resonate with a segment of them. The young people who actually believe in crypto are idealists. They lack seriousness of mind, and tend to look for (and settle on) easy answers. That defines the crypto community which less than a year ago held Sam Bankman-Fried as their boy genius savior.

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Padres 2023: the final countdown

Preface: First posted on Facebook just before the Padres-Cardinals series began @ Petco. Updates will continue until they are mathematically eliminated, or (miraculously) make the post-season.

Padres have won 7 in a row to increase their chances of making the post-season from <0.1% to 0.7%. RHP’s Joe Musgrove & Hu Darvish, along with C Gary Sanchez & UT Jake Cronenworth, etc, all shut down for the season. The Padres still have a strong rotation with Blake Snell, Michael Wacha & Seth Lugo, but they NEED a 4th starter. Young righty knuckleballer Matt Waldron (PTBNL in the Mike Clevinger deal with Indians) starts for the Padres tonight against the Cardinals.

Pedro Avila is their 5th starter but he can be skipped this time through the rotation because the Padres just had a off day. They’ll either need Avila to win a game in the Giants series next week, or continue to be an effective bullpen option. Pedro Avila is a young promising righty arm, who has been a good bullpen guy that can also spot start. AJP got him in the Derek Norris heist from the Nationals in December 2016. That farm system depth needs to play more for the Padres in 2024.

Sat 23 Sep 2023 10:30 AM CDT

Matt Waldron (pic above) pitched great, as the Padres won 4-2 last night for their 8th straight (post-season chances now 1.7%). It’s RHP Nick Martinez starting for the Friars tonight, not Pedro Avila. Martinez is the other duel use Padres option. It just shows how much talent this roster has.

The Padres are being aggressive and using their 5th starter now, at home against a poor team, instead of against the Giants next Wednesday. It will be Matt Waldron for that start, then an off day, allowing their rotation to flip back to Wacha-Snell-Lugo @ White Sox to close the season. I describe all this to prove this team is well managed. Bob Melvin is a good manager. That’s not the problem.

The Padres now sit four games behind the Cubs with eight left. Padres lose the tiebreakers to the Cubs & Snakes, so it ain’t happenin’, but as a fan you kinda have to follow your team until the end… The 2023 Padres are the most frustrating & confounding team I’ve ever rooted for.

As a Reds fan in 1981, that was the most frustrating. Most baseball fans don’t recognize that season as legitimate. The post-season should have been the Brewers v A’s in the AL, and the Reds v Cardinals in the NL. But MLB owners wanted to reset the season for everybody after the players strike was settled, so the Dodgers beat the Yankees in the WS that year. Total joke. Fans don’t blame their teams for that.

When the Rays traded ace LHP David Price in 2014, that was frustrating as a fan. Same goes for Brewers fans with dumping ace closer Josh Hader last year. Fans rightly blame ownership & management for that crap.

But the 2023 Padres were given everything they needed to win, by management & the fans. Padres set an attendance record this season, and they had their highest payroll ever, both 3rd in MLB. But the Padres players never showed any urgency, and seemingly lost every close ballgame they played, until these final three weeks of the season. For the first 5+ months, they underperformed with very little fight.

I honestly never expected the Padres to win the NL West this year, as they finished 22 GB the Dodgers last year. But they were expected to nab a Wild Card and be a dangerous team in the playoffs again. Instead, GM AJP was forced to consider selling at the trade deadline, but the market was cold, so he flipped to being a soft buyer and got cheap reinforcements for his squad. It was better than doing what the Mets did, but nothing worked for the 2023 Padres and sometimes it’s just not your year.

As a fan you have to applaud the player effort up to the end, but then ask, “Where was this all season?” This franchise will be in the news again this winter, you can be sure. AJ Preller has some team chemistry issues that need to be addressed if the Padres are going to be a serious WS contender going forward.

The Padres lineup was clicking in spring training. I know ST doesn’t matter, but in this case they had Fernando Tatis, Jr. Then the season started and Tatis was placed on the suspended list until April 20, as a carry-over from his PED suspension in 2022.

This happened because Tatis hurt his wrist in a motorbike accident(s), and it happened in the Dominican Republic during the MLB owners lockout, so the Padres didn’t know about it, as teams were not allowed to communicate with any of their players during this collective bargaining stand-off. The CBA was ratified just before 2022 Spring Training, and then the Padres found out he had been hurt. Tatis then used a banned substance out of stupidity & recklessness, and was busted for it just as he was about to return from his wrist injury. This is why AJP had to empty the farm system to get Juan Soto. The 2022 Padres never would have made the post-season without all the deals AJP made that trade deadline.

Tatis, who was once hailed as the franchise leader, wasn’t there with his teammates on Opening Day 2023. The Padres struggled out of the gate, anxiously awaiting Tatis’ return, fans were told. When he re-joined the team, he’s now the RF, with splash FA signing Xander Bogaerts taking over at SS. But the question remained, “Who is the leader of this team?” It can’t be the PED guy, he’s got to produce and win back the team, organization & fans. He ALONE has to face to the jeers, boo birds & harsh critics. That divides a team, and it was inevitable.

Padres got very little production at CF, 1B & DH in 2023. When AJP nabbed C Gary Sanchez off waivers on May 29, it filled a HUGE hole– until he got hurt in September. It still begged the question, “How come this expensive team has so many holes?”

LF Juan Soto had a great season, and that’s the guy the Padres give money to this off-season, if ownership insists on making a splash. Not DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, due to his 2nd TJ. That’s how much the market has shifted on that.

With Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts & Soto the Padres should be competitive. They have a decent pitching staff and a good farm system (again), as they’ve gotten better at drafting & player development, which they needed to do to catch the Dodgers. At this point, the Padres need to get better than the Phillies & Brewers before they can set their sights on the Dodgers & Braves. The 2024 Padres need to be younger & more homegrown, otherwise they will turn into the Mets & Yankees.

Sat 23 Sep 2023 11:30 PM CDT

Padres stacked righties Nick Martinez (4.0 IP) with Pedro Avila (2.2 IP), and it worked for six scoreless innings. But Avila cracked for two runs in the 7th, and the Padres lost 5-2 to the Cardinals in 11 innings. Padres fall to 0-12 in extra innings in 2023, and in many ways it capsulized the Padres season. They had a solid game plan to win. They had a lead & pitched well, but couldn’t tack-on when opportunities arose, either through bad luck or bad play. They couldn’t produce good AB’s when it mattered most. Just enough to beat them.

This time a main culprit was Luis Campusano not running hard out-of-the-box and getting hosed easily at second base to kill a potential rally in the 6th. The normally supportive home fans booed, and deservedly so. In 2023, that crap happened over & over against bad teams in front of capacity Petco crowds. Padres players have work to do to win back their fans in 2024, as Friar faithful feel betrayed by a careless lack of effort this past season.

Padres then started to press and it snowballed into defeat. Ha-Seong Kim got picked off 1st base to end the 8th. Bottom of the 9th, Padres down 2-1, they load the bases with no outs, and the top of the order coming up. Bogaerts grounds into a force play for a game-tying RBI, then Tatis & Soto strike out, which means extra innings. A couple of GIDP’s late in the game were leitmotifs for the 2023 Padres. Twelve walks, but only six hits in 11 innings for the Padres, all singles.

Cubs & Marlins won, while the Giants & Reds lost, so the Padres are virtually eliminated, which means I’m done after this update. The Diamondbacks were weathered-out @ Yankees on Saturday by Tropical Storm Ophelia, and will try to make it up as a doubleheader on Monday (hopefully), as they have no more off days. Sunday’s game is questionable at this point. The most likely NL team to collapse down the stretch is the D-backs, who along with the Reds & Marlins have a negative run differential.

Climate change has created havoc with the MLB schedule this season, and it’s hurting the Snakes here. Earlier in the summer (June 27-29), the Padres played a series @ Pirates where Canadian wildfire smoke choked the air for three games. Players weren’t allowed to complain too loudly, as getting the games in was primary. What was supposed to be a soft spot in their road schedule turned into a disaster, as the Padres got swept in Pittsburgh and then lost 2-of-3 in Cincinnati. There were times during the season I felt players were put in a position where winning the game was secondary compared to what was going on around them. No doubt this affected their effort & performance at times. This happened to every team to a varying degree.

Padres hot stove season outlook

Austin Nola, the older brother of Phillies RHP Aaron Nola, is an interesting Padres arbitration case. He’s gonna be 34, which is very old for a catcher, and he was sent down to the minors in July after posting an anemic .146/.260/.192 batting line in 2023. Austin Nola has 3.1 years of MLB service time, making him arbitration eligible this winter after making $2.35M this year. He’s possibly/likely a non-tender for the Padres. Look for AJP to try to package him in a deal, if possible– or re-sign him to a minor league contract.

Padres are still hopeful on C Luis Campusano who is about to turn 25. He’s had defensive issues and injuries have hampered his development. Health is a skill, but the raw talent is there. He can really hit. Also recall, the Padres went all-in on C Ethan Salas during the Jan 15, 2023 International Draft. He was the top prospect available and the Padres gave Salas all their slot money to get him. Ethan Salas is the Padres #1 prospect, playing at AA at age 17. Padres need a veteran C to start 2024, so re-signing Gary Sanchez remains a possibility. AJP will explore the market, but their catching future appears to be in the system.

LHP Robby Snelling is the Padres #3 prospect, one of three finalists for minor league pitcher of the year. This high school draftee, above-slot bonus baby, the #39 overall pick in the 2022 Draft, could be competing for a Padres rotation slot some time in 2024. Padres #6 prospect, 2018 International Draft selection RHP Jairo Iriarte, age 21, is expected to compete for the Padres rotation in 2024. RHP Adam Mazur, a 2022 college draft pick, age 22 has a 2025 ETA. Padres farm system doesn’t have the depth it had a few years back when it was the best in baseball, but it has some high-end talent.

Padres have RHPs Joe Musgrove & Hu Darvish locked up, so it’s ‘however AJP decides’ to fill out his rotation after losing LHP Blake Snell (NL Cy Young 2023) to free agency. Padres will take the compensation pick on Blake Snell, and for Josh Hader too. Those were a couple of GREAT trades that will continue to bear fruit for the Padres. One way to build talent & depth in a farm system is by acquiring compensation picks* and using them well. For the record, AJP was set up to deal Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and possibly Juan Soto at the 2023 trade deadline– the BEST rental starter, closer, AND positional player available. When the seller market froze (due to East Coast Bias collusion), AJ Preller pulled back and left the Mets high & dry as they proceeded to dump for pennies on the dollar because they had no choice.

* Compensation picks are more valuable than many of the top prospects that were dealt this past trade deadline, including the players in the Max Scherzer & Justin Verlander deals. The Mets paid $43.3M to the Rangers to get SS/2B Luisangel Acuña in the Max Scherzer trade deadline dump. Luisangel Acuña is now the Mets top prospect (#38 in MLB), expected to arrive in 2024 at age 22. A compensation pick costs a team <1/10th (top pick, ~1/5th) of that in terms of dollars, which means if the player busts, it’s not devastating. But if this “$43M prospect” doesn’t cut it in the Big Apple, then fans, players & media will immediately point fingers.

That’s the risk of overvaluing prospects, which GM’s tend to do when their farm system is barren and a re-build is in order. RHP Justin Verlander was also dumped by the Mets, to the Astros for OF Drew Gilbert (#2 Mets, [#52 MLB], 2025 ETA), and OF/1B Ryan Clifford (#6 Mets, 2026 ETA). Mets paid $39.1M to get those two prospects, neither of them a pitcher. In total, the Mets paid $82M on August 1, 2023 for three non-pitcher prospects (now #1, #2 & #6 in their system), in exchange for their two veteran aces. Was it worth it? Probably not, but we’ll see.

The bigger point is a GM should never put an organization in that situation. With all those resources made available, the Mets had no back-up plan if their 2023 team collapsed, which it did– and it cost them dearly. Mets GM Billy Eppler then had to do as ownership commanded at the trade deadline and recoup what he could regardless of the cost, knowing all along he was going to be replaced by David Stearns. It was the worst kept secret in MLB for over two years.

This is the Amazin’ Mess which new GM David Stearns now inherits. He’s a bright guy who built the Brewers pitching staff of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff Freddie Peralta which is as good as any trio in MLB. The Brew Crew have a deep bullpen, and a manager who knows how to use it. Craig Counsell is a top-3 MLB manager every year. David Stearns also made great trades over the years to build the Brewers into a consistent winner on a budget. He leaves Milwaukee in good hands and will now have a top-tier payroll in the #1 media market. It’s comparable to Andrew Friedman leaving the Rays for the Dodgers in 2015. The Mets will be good again very soon with David Stearns as their GM.  ****

Padres have an interesting decision on RHP Michael Wacha, age 32, who has a player option for $6.5M, while the Padres hold a $16M team option for 2024 & 2025. Wacha earned $7.5 in 2023, and was their 2nd-best starter, behind Blake Snell. I suspect the Padres will pick up Michael Wacha’s option for $16M.

RHP Seth Lugo also pitched great, after being signed as a 5th/6th starter, he ended up as the Padres 3rd starter. Seth Lugo has a $7.5M player option for 2024, but may decline that after having a nice age-33 season for the Friars. He might be looking for a multi-year deal on the free agent market. The Padres are looking to get younger on the pitching side, but on the other hand, if Seth Lugo exercises his player option, the Padres would be ecstatic. You can never have too much pitching, especially when it’s a reliable team player.

Padres #2 prospect, SS Jackson Merrill, age 20, is expected to arrive in 2024. I don’t envision AJ Preller dealing any of his top prospects, as they’re part of his plan to get younger, cheaper & better. If AJP deals any of them, it’s this one, and only for a young stud pitcher. CF Trent Grisham & UT Jake Cronenworth are different stories. Unless they can become invaluable bench/utility pieces, they don’t fit on the Padres active roster, and thus become tradeable.

Trent Grisham is my favorite Padres player, but he’s done two things I don’t like. He changed his number, and he grew a porn mustache which has coincided with his two-year hitting slump. Go back to the old #2, and shave the stache! That’s old school coaching. As far as advanced metrics go, Trent Grisham is a pure lefty, so I don’t understand his splits. According to his 2023 numbers (with ~ a week to go), Trent Grisham (overall .199/.315/.353) can’t hit righties. He’s a punchless .180/.300/.329 with three times the at-bats against righties, while hitting .252/.355/.420 against lefties. This is the opposite of what’s expected in lefty/righty splits for a lefty hitter.

It’s just one of the MANY things that is so confounding about this Padres team. Why can’t Trent Grisham hit righties? It would solve so many problems! Perhaps the most difficult part of evaluating a player like Trent Grisham is distinguishing what a player is from what you want him to be. For prospects, its infinitely tougher because they are all so far away from the Majors that projections are tentative at best & always subject to change. Baseball is the toughest game to predict.

Padres just signed Jake Cronenworth to an extension through 2030 last winter, while Trent Grisham has two more arbitration years remaining, after earning $3.175M in 2023. Of the two, CF Trent Grisham is a more coveted asset because he’s younger, cheaper, and plays a more valuable defensive position at a gold glove level. He can be seen as a guy who needs a change-of-scenery, and still has upside. Jake Cronenworth has value, due to his positional flexibility, good defense & lefty bat. He needs to be a utility guy for the Padres, not a DH or 1B. The Padres would have to eat contract to maximize his trade value. How much is the rub, so most likely the Padres keep Jake Cronenworth, but he could be floated this winter.

AJP reserves the right to do that with all his players, except those with no trade clauses. GM’s maximize the value of their players & prospects by offering deals for them. If another organization over-values that player, a smart GM will know what players he/she wants from EVERY organization, top to bottom. That’s when they make a deal. If that organization also undervalues their player/prospect, it becomes a steal.

2B Ha-Seong Kim is an underrated player signed to a team-friendly deal through 2026. Padres want to keep him, but they have too many middle infielders, so he could be dangled as trade bait. AJP refused Ha-Seong Kim-for-RHP Pablo López from the Marlins last winter, so the righty pitcher went to the Twins instead, who extended him before his arbitration expired. Good move by the Twins. That was also a good ‘no trade’ by AJP. Marlins new GM Kim Ng moved on and made a great deal getting 2B Luis Arraez from the Twins for Pablo López. This ‘non-trade’ was a vast improvement in team relations, as AJP couldn’t even talk to Marlins ex-GM Mike Hill after the 2016 trade deadline.

The best thing about being a Padres fan in this era is knowing the management side of things is being taken care of. This team no longer gets ripped-off in trades. They do that to other unwitting franchises now. Padres scouting & drafting has improved by light years from when AJP took over in 2014. It’s a long way to the top, it’s VERY competitive, and success isn’t always linear. Padres need to stick with their process, even as the doubters persist. This was a necessary step back year for them, as they still owed on Fernando Tatis Jr’s PED baggage. They weren’t as good as they finished in 2022, but they aren’t as bad as they played in 2023. The hardest part is recognizing, understanding & accepting this.

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