Meat Puppets @ Will’s Pub

Cris & Curt Kirkwood

Meat Puppets played at Will’s in Orlando last night–  supersonic loud!!

Curt Kirkwood

This is still an amazing band that any rock music fan should see– they tour everywhere.

SST-label Classics

Their best records were the SST-label releases in the 1980’s, and while their live performance rests heavily on that catalog, the Meat Puppets still make interesting music and play with hypnotic intensity.

Meat Puppets 2015: Elmo, Cris, Shandon Sahm, Curt Kirkwood

Their lineup now includes (Curt’s son) Elmo on guitar, and the impressive beats of Shandon Sahm.

Drummer Shandon Sahm

Cool footnote: Shandon is the son of Doug Sahm.

Away…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Questions for U.S. Presidential Candidates

Since the spring of 2015, Democrats & Republicans have begun jockeying for the next US presidency, and there is still over a year before voting on November 8, 2016.  As of yet, nothing serious has been discussed by any of these hopefuls– call it a severe case of the Emperor’s New Clothes.

Here is a list of questions that people should ask, since they won’t ever be brought up by the corporate-controlled media which manages this deranged circus.  These queries are then answered with an honesty & directness that is unheard of in official political discourse.

Q: What is being done to end this bogus ‘war on terror?’

Nothing. The US military invaded Afghanistan in October of 2001, in response to 9/11; and has been ravaging & terrorizing this part of the world ever since. The latest highlighted atrocity is the willful bombing of a Doctors Without Borders hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan– killing 22, including 12 medical personnel.  This is a war crime by any definition.

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) Kunduz Trauma Center

Photo above by Andrew Quilty

Q: If you are a candidate who insists on maintaining (or increasing) troop levels in the Middle East, with the continued indiscriminate use of violence on the population as a whole; how do you not consider yourself a war criminal?

It is politically incorrect to compare today’s fascists with yesterday’s Nazis.  Violence abroad and attacks on democratic rights at home are two sides of the same coin.  Police violence against the poor of all races is the domestic extension of this foreign policy.

Q: Why do all Dems/Reps support law enforcement when they murder innocent civilians?

The truth is, Dems/Reps support police/military violence against the American workers because it has increasingly becoming the only way to maintain the current levels of social inequality.  The US social safety net has been shredded by decades of budget cuts, so the jackboot of the ruling class is now used to control mass discontent.

Q: How can a campaign that raises so much Super PAC money respond to the needs of ordinary working people who can’t afford to donate such sums?

To ask the question is to answer it.  Politicians are bought & paid for, long before the voters go to the polls.  The only representation that goes on in Washington is done by high-powered lobbying groups, representing big capital.

Q: What about global warming?

No capitalist candidate wants to seriously address this problem.  Unplanned industrialization has led mankind into the downward spiral of climate change, with potentially disastrous consequences.  Capitalists are only concerned with this quarter’s profits.  This important question, which affects the future of everyone on this planet is always ignored or marginalized by mainstream politicians.  They have no answer, because in fact, they represent the problem.

Q: What about the risk of nuclear war with Russia and/or China?

That’s a classified secret.  All foreign policy is strictly controlled & monitored by the Pentagon & CIA, with no public input.

Q: Why does Donald Trump get so much press?

Donald Trump is a reactionary bigot.  His role in this election cycle is to push all discourse to the right– and down into the muck.  The corporate media has fully participated in this degraded celebration of ignorance and personal wealth.

Q: Is there a candidate who can give a fair definition of socialism?

Bernie Sanders (Democrat) is the pseudo-socialist; he supports militarism abroad and an anti-immigration policy at home– which is the polar opposite of socialism.  Socialism is the revolutionary transformation of society from private ownership of wealth (capitalism), into public ownership of the means-of-production, via a worker’s revolution.  The major candidates and their philistine lapdogs in the media have likely never read Karl Marx, or any other classical Marxist– including V.I. Lenin or Leon Trotsky.

Q: Will my vote count?

Probably not.  Elections are manipulated by the puppet-masters who fund campaigns and control the media.  The election of a U.S. president can’t be left up to the population, as they may make the ‘wrong’ choice; therefore biased media coverage and electronic voting manipulation will be decisive in determining the next presidency.

Q: So who will get the nominations and eventually the presidency?

The candidates who raise the most money.  Hillary Clinton (Democrat) and Jeb Bush (Republican) have the most cash & machinery in place to win (or if necessary, steal) an election.

Q: That sounds like more of the same garbage, what other options are there for working people?

Socialism or barbarism.

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Fan Message #75

Electrified! promo

Thanks to all of you who have downloaded, enjoyed & shared the mp3s from Electrified!  At this point we have still received ZERO press, and have not been offered any venue in which to perform.  We’re hopeful this will change soon, but we are not holding our breath.

It is YOU, the fans who truly make it happen.  The early response to Electrified! has been sensational, as the number of visits to the site (and downloads!) has jumped dramatically.  Anytime you share the songs or direct someone to our site, it helps.  If you really love the music & the message– then keep doing this!!

We have just uploaded the entire album onto Spotify, iTunes, Rhapsody, I Heart Radio, etc…. and it should proliferate completely within a week.  We don’t expect fans to pay for it (especially when we already have it FREE on this site), but it does help us with distribution & promotion.  This is how most people (kids) find new music these days, as the Internet is new radio.  Superfans will add us to their playlists, share on social media, forums & blogs, etc…

At this point, as artists, we have done (and will continue to do) all we can to distribute this music as widely as possible.  The anti-capitalist themes of this art will continue to keep us blacklisted from corporate-owned media & venues.   We leave it up to music lovers everywhere to decide the merits of this art.  If you are among those who passionately love this music, then become part of its success.  This revolution doesn’t happen without your participation!

Thank you again for all the love & support!!

RicSize/TomP

Electrified! FREE Download, Notes & Lyrics

Electrified! cover
Download  ELECTRIFIED!
Dark-Grey-Free-Download-Button-PSD
Credits:

Tom Pearce: percussion, backing vocals
Craig Roy: bass
Bill Pelick: lead guitar, bass
Jessy Lynn Martens: violin, backing vocals
Rachel Decker: chanteuse
RS: vocal, guitar, bass, harmonica

Recorded at Jay Stanley Productions in Apopka, FL; summer/fall 2013

Produced by TomP

Cover photo is a video still shot by Susan Cameron; layout & artwork by TomP/RS

All tunes Published & Copyrighted: No Cliché Songs/ Infinitelink Records 2015

Electrified! is the soundtrack to this unfinished film:

mp3/blogs from Electrified!

No one buys CDs anymore; the mp3/blog is a self-invented format upgrade– discussed fully here.

All tunes individually credited on their mp3/blog link.

mp3                                 blog link

Spirit of the Road             The Spirit of the Road
Schooldaze                      The Circus of Dr. Lao & the SOL
Ridiculous                        The NBA: I Can’t Watch this Game
Atheist Psalm                  What is Zionism & Anti-Semitism?
Anna Rex                         Modelling as Art
Old Friends                      Action Cinema: Keepin’ it Real
Tip of the Cap                  What is Grunge?
Just Because                  Why Marxism?
Listen to the Woman       Understanding Men & LieSpotting
Brothers                          Children of Alcoholics
Moneybug                       Zombieland Redux
Kararak                           Plutocracy & Marxism
More Like Us?                John Lennon: Working Class Hero

Anna Rex-Modelling as Art

ELECTRIFIED!  LYRICS

SPIRIT OF THE ROAD

Twin-cam sixteen valve FI
Sunroof down with the crankin’ hi-fi
Out on the road up on I-95
No room to pass only two lanes wide
With the air-bags off no cruise control
Carburetor’s blown check the manifold
Rain pourin’ down at twelve at night
Battery’s dead got no headlights
With my baby by my side it’s such a relief
We’ve got wind in our hair we’ve got bugs in our teeth
At 110 I’m losing my nerve
Suspension is shot and we’re starting to swerve
Six hours on the road and I’m starting to freak
Pull over for gas and to take a leak
Need and oil change the cylinder’s stuck
It’s been fifty thousand miles and we’re pushin’ our luck
Call AAA and get the tow truck here
Brake line’s gone can’t power steer
With three flat tires and a spare in the trunk
Oughta strip it for parts and sell it as junk

That’s my fuel-injected hotrod driving fast around Deadman’s Curve

Road rage behind don’t tailgate me
Rearview check another SUV
Those US cars look sick I note
Guzzle too much gas and drives like a boat
Loaded with gadgets they’ve got all the toys
Expensive options make too much noise
Japanese cars are better for me
Reliably built for efficiency
My Toyota Tacoma she’s a haulin’ machine
My Honda Accord runs super clean
My Toyota Corolla she’s a mini-jet rocket
When she gets up to speed you just can’t stop it

That’s my fuel-injected hotrod driving fast around Deadman’s Curve

MORE LIKE US?

Are there more like us?
Someone you trust
To show you some guts
Are there more like us?

Song of youth, make it rhyme, rock & roll music right in time
Contagious joy infects my soul, I’m in love with rock and roll
Are there more like us?

Show us your stuff
We’re calling your bluff
Do you have enough?
For when things get rough

KARARAK

July 1, 2002
Out of the night their gunships flew
Fifty women and children mowed down that day
By Uncle Sam and his Green Berets

In God We Trust defend our cause
On Eagle’s wings and imperialist claws
Who pulls the strings? We cannot say
Of our Special Forces and CIA

Johnny’s remains were laid to rest
They pinned a medal where he had a chest
How many more must die this way
For the Stars & Stripes of the USA?

OLD FRIENDS

Today is a good day for and old friend to slip away
Promises that we keep, promises we just make
An instinct hard to find a habit that’s hard to break
Today is a good day for an old friend to slip away

An old friend calls me up asks me who I was
Someone he once knew someone she once loved
A dream lost in the past a forgotten point of view
Someone who holds on someone I outgrew

On what I rely it’s just a crutch
If less is more then I’m too much
Who I am is hard to know
This cool facade is just a show
That stays too long when it should go
Living high means sinking low

RIDICULOUS

The ridiculous nature of US life
For most of the people it’s hardship and strife
This hourly grind for our daily bread
We keep falling behind we can’t get ahead
With bumper to bumper everyday
It’s hard to believe we’re living this way
Rush hour crunch in sweltering heat
Drizzling rain freezing cold sleet
This constant rat race is unpaid labor
Why doesn’t it count as work in your favor?
And when you get home there’s a TV to face
To reinforce values put you in your place
That it’s money and power and beauty and fame
And if you don’t have this then you’re not in the game
Creativity and talent they don’t want any here
Too hard to control it’s hype that they cheer
So the new season’s line-up is more pabulum for you
Some really weak stuff it’s the best they could do
So sit with your Friends, Seinfeld and Ed
American Idol live it all in your head
Because you don’t have a life and you’re going nowhere
And you forgot how to think so you don’t even care

Ridiculous/Quit

In central Florida I’m tellin’  y’all
Doc River’s team could not get a call
Heart & Hustle did not mean a thing
It’s size and strength that gets the ring
So the bigger you are the harder you hit
The more that you win well that’s about it
Shaquille O’Neal bull-rush to the hoop
Lacking the skill to set up and shoot
At the charity stripe even money he’ll brick it
Painful to watch for c-notes a ticket!
It’s a wrestling match down in the paint
Grabbing and holding pretty it ain’t
Unwritten rules just part of the game
It’s one of those things no one can explain
How veteran players use all the tricks
To maintain advantage the whole league’s a fix

Bills pile up so you can’t pay the rent
You’re throw in the street to live in a tent
Credit card balance stuffed to the limit
Twenty five percent well who can afford it?
So pawn all the chairs and rummage the table
US economy is highly unstable
The American Dream has bitten the dust
It’s all a big lie In God We Trust
When pension funds and retirement savings
Are stolen and looted for capitalist cravings
A shrug of the shoulders it’s out of our hands
The invisible market a shift of the sands
The working people get only contempt from above
The ruling elite incapable of love
It’s time to organize the laboring classes
An independent perspective of militant masses
To end the corruption in this critical hour
With socialist goals of seizing the power

Because the whole capitalistic system is…

BROTHERS

Two boys from the same home
Raised in the country where the sweet corn’s grown
With baseball games and snowball fights
And flashlight tag of summer nights

So long ago as brothers and friends
In our tree fort and on our bikes
From joy and laughter two brothers start
How did it happen we grew apart?

We had a father with a bottle of gin
Became addiction killed the man within
And all that was left became bitterness and shame
And the roles we played in a twisted game

I played the hero because I came first
Born to succeed with obsessive thirst
But all that guilt became such a cost
For trying to save a family lost

As the scapegoat you took the blame
For an affliction we could not name
That hurt and anger which pushed you away
Remains deep inside up to this day

November wind blows through the trees
These naked branches have lost their leaves
Oh how I long for the boughs of June
And the robin’s nest and iris bloom

Our childhood lost still lives inside
Beneath the loneliness and compulsive pride
It’s not too late if we try hard
We can reclaim who we are

TIP OF THE CAP

This train ride’s a tip of the cap
American music all across the map
So climb aboard we’re moving fast
To show our love celebrate the past

Now modern rock is NYC
And country time Nashville Opry
I’ve got a ticket for that Memphis soul
Stax/Volt/Sun Records rock and roll

It’s a northbound ride for electric blues
Windy shoulders and stockyard crews
Where guitars sting and mouth harps blow
That urban vibe of Chicago

This Mystery Train rolls southbound too
Jambalaya and crawfish stew
Jazz& blues is what it means
Mississippi delta and New Orleans

I’m on that train I’m westward bound
for LA punk and that surf-rock sound
but I’ll jump rail for the riffs I dig
Those lightnin’ leads flash Texas big

Train, train roll down the line
Tune your ear and you will find
that the sound you hear at every destination
is the folk-rock-soul of a heartbeat nation

JUST BECAUSE

Shake
Slither slide snake
No need to fake
Don’t be a flake

Just because
You feel the buzz
Don’t call the fuzz
Act like you was

Get up and dance
Step from stance
This could be your last chance
To snap out of that trance

Hey beautiful– smile
It never goes out of style
Haven’t seen it in a while
Why impose self denial?

Feelin’ kinda groovy
Starring in a crazy movie
Well this flick should have some nudie
With myself and a cutie

SCHOOLDAZE

I think back to schooldaze I think back to fifth grade
My first love a deep crush, how it felt how it stayed
To notice the first time the features in her face
I can’t help to just stare and daydream into space
Her eyes and her lips and her hair are so pleasing
Does she feel the same way or is she just teasing?

In high school a dull day perfume note thrown my way
Such boldness and fashion and humor on display
A quick sketch endowed with a caption that’s asking
Why is it your true love is afraid of unmasking?
I turn to her blue eyes and my nerve is unsteady
A flower in full bloom I don’t think I’m ready

Cute girl I don’t know asked her friend to meet you
Why is it so hard for emotion to break through
Words of confusion advice that is all wrong
Frustration is the rule peer pressure is so strong

Athletic young lady I don’t know your name
Weak stomach and no spine were always my shame
I buried my feelings of true love down inside
With dumb stuff like jealousy machismo and false pride

Music is my love that never was spoken
This song is a gift to the hearts that I’ve broken
What means love is yourself the essence of being
Expression whose life force is vital and breathing
A love that extends through the cosmos and all time
A passion so pure it transcends sublime

ATHEIST PSALM

For bedtime stories of ancient belief
An atheist psalm is welcome relief
A revolutionary theory the Church will dismiss
Made for today we’re ready for this
It’s a vision of God with 20/20 sight
From an unholy roller; Oh I’m feeling it tonight
The power to heal is back in my hands
And control of my fate is in my command
I rely on myself and what is around me
It’s removed all the doubts that used to confound me
It’s cleared the confusion of a head that was reeling
To believe there’s no God is a cleansing feeling
It’s cleared the confusion of a head that was reeling
To say there’s no God is a cleansing feeling

There is no God
Just a theistic clan
Superstitious fraud
Do you understand me man?

Jesus and Allah and Buddha and Yahweh
Tall tales of old help little today
So on guard defense spine up straight
For hysterical attacks of right-wing hate
From an invalid pope in a flowing cape
And a Vatican that harbors bishops who rape
Little boys molested silenced to tears
Intimidated to protect orthodox careers
Priests hide in the closet as pious pretenders
It’s the Holy Roman Church and its sex offenders
They don’t believe what they preach and neither should you
These hypocrites and liars teach little that’s true
So clear the confusion of a head that was reeling
To declare there’s no God is a cleansing feeling
So clear the confusion of a head that was reeling
To yell there’s no God is a cleansing feeling

Because of different faiths
We must kill each other
Doesn’t this seem stupid?
Can I get an “Amen” brother?

Will my life matter to humanity?
How long can I live and fight off insanity?
On the vigor of youth works the grit and the sweat
It weathers my face so I don’t forget
That the strong and the brave with the weak and the measly
Can live just as long and die just as easily
So I keep no illusions concerning mortality
Death is the end the spiritual finality
When I look in the mirror I see the wisdom is there
In the lines in my skin and the strength of my stare
It’s cleared the confusion of a head that was reeling
To know there’s no God is a cleansing feeling
It’s cleared the confusion of a head that was reeling
To scream there’s no God is a cleansing feeling

ANNA REX

Anna Rex what happened to you what makes you see yourself this way?
That beautiful girl, not much left on that skin and skeleton frame
It’s not fair what men expect I wish we all could feel the same
Distorted view is food for thought while the body wastes away

Video killed the brain that’s how it goes it’s such a shame
Supermodels on TV dream of fortune, desire fame
The message to us all: what’s life without sex appeal?
Just illusions of ourselves in a world we can’t see what’s real

Anna Rex how can I help?
I wish I knew just how you felt

Obsession in the mirror reveals the ghost that was your face
Your self-denial robs youthful glow and leaves a husk in its place
The conflict over want and need rages in your mind
Always yearning ever searching for satisfaction it won’t find

MONEYBUG

In America we’re mostly the same
In our cities the pace is insane
In our leisure we must be entertained
That’s why drugs numb all the pain

TV Billy stays up late
In school he can’t concentrate
But there’s a pill to keep him calm and sedate
That his parents feed him twice a day

Moneybug– the cure is a new drug
Moneybug– always with the… / the cost of these… / the side-effects of these… new drugs

Doc, I got a tooth that hurts
If you touch it just makes it worse
Can you give me a prescription first?
Narcotics are what I prefer

Pedro young and gay
He’s sick dying of AIDS
The cost of treatment is beyond his means
With healthcare run by insurance schemes
So he can’t afford the….

Martha disabled and old
Wasting away in a nursing home
With a dozen meds side effects unknown
Would you want this life to be your own?

More research is to find a cure
But it’s a business that’s for sure
Profit & loss is how they keep score
We forgot what we’re fighting for…

 

LISTEN TO THE WOMAN

The words I say to you will always be true it’s a promise I won’t betray
Kiss me on the lips with a look and a smile, I forget how to play
I love you so much somewhere in my heart for reasons I can’t explain
I listen to the woman even if she’s wrong, there’s something in her way

A toast to our love it will conquer all take away the pain
Believe it in your heart feel it in your soul sear it in your brain
When I became strong I wrote this song it put me on a plain
Stretched me to the limit then I went beyond I’ll never be the same

When I say “I love you”
She knows that I do
What else matters if that’s true?

With infinite patience always in her nature to be warm and kind
A sensing intuition knowing what to say and when to change her mind
She knows herself well, measures all her words in what & how to say
Listen to the woman even if she’s wrong there’s something in her way

Electrified! promo 2

MLB General Manager 101

On top of this list are egomaniac owners, with way more money than brains:

MLB Cost per Win 2015

Where you REALLY don’t want to be on this chart is near the top & out of the post-season– those team’s CEO’s & GM’s all deserve scrutiny.

MLB teams spent an average of $1,573,000 per win in 2015.  In today’s free agent market, teams pay an average of $6M/win.  Teams determine player value by calculating the number of wins a player will add above replacement level (WAR), using a blend of scouting and advanced metrics. A championship-level player at any position is 2-3 WAR, an all-star is 4-6 WAR, and a MVP is 8-10 WAR.  Finding & signing bargains, while minimizing mistakes, is how you win as a GM.

All players need to be objectively valued, starting with the most important baseball skill– hitting.  Hitting is best measured using the triple slash stats of AVG/OBP/SLG which gives a true measure of a hitter’s ability.  OBP is life in baseball.  It is the most important measure of a hitter’s value, carrying around three times the weight of SLG, which is second in importance.  AVG is prone to severe fluctuations, even from season to season, and doesn’t measure the batter’s ability to take a walk– a critical hitting skill.

For reference, 2015 MLB triple slash averages for all players was .254/.317/.405.

Q: What is a batter is trying to do at the plate?  A: Create runs.  He does this by: 1) not making outs, and 2) hitting for power.

Productive outs are WAY over-rated in most situations.  Sacrifice bunts give the other team an out, which is generally bad in terms of winning.  Base stealing is also over-hyped, as caught stealing hurts– especially in this modern power-hitting era.  Team SB% needs to be >75% to be effective towards winning.

A hitter’s value always needs to be understood in the context of the defensive position he plays.  Catcher, shortstop, centerfield, and second base are critical & difficult defensive positions, which must be played competently for a pitching staff to be successful & stay healthy.  Power & run production is usually expected from the less-demanding defensive positions: first base, corner outfielders, and third base.  Of course, DH has always been about power in the AL, since 1973.

Pitching, as related to winning, is also about power.  Pitchers with high K/9 and low BB/9 have the low ERA’s.  Strikeout pitchers handle the best hitters with their stuff, and cover up for poor defense.  The value of true-ace pitching in the post-season is exponentially higher than in the regular season.

Relief pitching has only the fraction of the value of starting pitching.  Most organizations still overpay on closers and set-up relievers.  Smart organizations stockpile power arms, then convert them to relievers if they fail as starters, in order to keep payroll costs down.

Defense was the final baseball frontier to be conquered by sabermetrics, begrudgingly earning respect from the old-timers.  With the advent of digital video technology in the 2000’s, each player is now more accurately measured for their true defensive value.  As recently as the 1990’s, assists, put outs, and errors were the only stats for individual defense; making Gold Glove awards (and any other opinions on defensive ability) highly subjective.  Now, Zone Ratings, etc… use statistical analysis to objectify range, accuracy, arm strength, and competence at all positions.

As productive players at premium defensive positions get older, their defensive skills erode necessitating their being moved to easier spots, usually 1B or DH.   Baseball history proves that it is nearly impossible to move a major-league player up the defensive spectrum, which runs C-SS-2B-CF-3B-RF-LF-1B-DH.

All this new data gives savvy GM’s (with a competitive payroll) the ability to budget their ball club, from its rebuilding to World Series champion. This is exactly how in 2015, the Houston Astros & Chicago Cubs rose from the ashes into the post-season.  The St. Louis Cardinals are an example of an organization that is always competitively-funded & well-run from top to bottom.

Pennants & WS championships are won in the off-season.  The deals a general manager makes through trades, free agent signings, and Rule 5 draft acquisitions shape the roster for the field manager.  Most big league skippers will manage their talent equally well; and even the best, such as Joe Maddon can only add a few wins to a season’s total.  The field manager’s primary value is in the post-season where game-management skills win & lose pennants. That’s why rebuilding organizations punt on experience and often give the manager job to a rookie at minimum salary– because they aren’t too worried about the post-season.

Generally, you need a good manager to win it all, and having a great one really helps.  The most infamous example of an incompetent manager winning the World Series was in 2001, when Arizona Diamondbacks skipper Bob Brenly so horribly mismanaged his 2 HOF aces– Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling; along with his bullpen to the point where HOF NY Yankee closer Mariano Rivera was pitching in the bottom of the 9th of Game 7 with a one-run lead.  A last-gasp rally started by Mark Grace, and aided by a Rivera throwing error, saved the Diamondbacks from eternal ridicule.

BTW, the Diamondbacks/Yankees 2001 was (IMO) the greatest World Series in the history of the game.

The most important GM questions of each off-season are: What is the payroll budget and where is this organization on the win curve?  Understanding where a team is on its win curve determines spending priorities.  Is this a team ready to win it all, or does it need to keep building, or rebuild?  With an answer fairly determined, spending is then balanced accordingly on MLB payroll and draft/player development.  Teams with no shot at winning (<75 wins projected) are well-advised to dump veteran payroll, in order to re-invest in prospects, the draft, and young international free agents.

Looking at basic team numbers can reveal much about where an organization sits on the win curve.  Today with two Wild Cards, a team can virtually guarantee a playoff birth with 92-94 wins.  Runs Scored (RS) & Runs Allowed (RA) objectify won/loss record, through Pythagorean projections.  Intelligent GM’s can look at their roster before the season and use advanced metrics to estimate RS/RA, in order to approximate their team’s final W/L record.

Proof of this is in hindsight too.  For instance, in 2015, the NY Mets were 90-72 scoring 683 runs and allowing 613, projecting to an 89-73 record.  Most teams fall near their RS/RA projection, but not all.  Sometimes teams can be lucky or unlucky in one-run games and/or extra innings– usually these contests are split around 50/50.  This can distort a team’s final record, and reflect a false picture of their true talent.

An example of this were the 2015 Oakland A’s, who were 68-94, yet they were only outscored by 35 runs on the season (694-729).  OAK’s Pythagorean projection was 77-85, but a 19-35 record in one-run games, the worst winning % in MLB, sunk their season.  The good news for A’s fans is that OAK probably isn’t as bad as their 2015 record, and their Moneyball GM Billy Beane knows it.

Other GM’s don’t understand this so well, and they are usually found in organizations that perennially miss the post-season.   Managers are hired and fired more often, and with more fanfare.  Field managers probably receive too much of the credit & blame for winning & losing, while the GM’s off-season moves have much more impact on a team’s performance & final result.

Fans who don’t know their team’s general manger have very little clue as to why their team succeeds or not.   For franchises that continually lose, this is likely the way it will continue to be, until their fans take a closer (and more serious) look at the business of baseball.

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