The Shohei Ohtani Pitch

This piece was originally written as a baseball free-agent signing analysis– but became much, much more. It now reads as a serial, dating November 29 – December 8.

 

The biggest news of this MLB off-season is the soon-to-happen posting of Japanese two-way pitching & hitting star Shohei Ohtani. It will cost one MLB team a $20 million fee, but the winner will likely be getting an ace pitcher, who can also hit like a regular player– at a bargain salary & signing bonus. That has every organization and their fans’ attention. Every team in MLB is waiting to see where he signs before making a significant move.

Where he goes apparently depends on the terms of use & marketability, as all 30 teams get to make their pitch in writing to his agent, per his request. That’s poise & presence, and Shohei Ohtani is a generational talent– age 23. These are the teams that can offer Ohtani the most bonus money according to the new international draft rules:

Rangers ($3,535,000)
Yankees ($3,500,000)
Twins ($3,070,000)
Pirates ($2,266,750)
Giants ($1,835,000) *
Mariners ($1,557,500)
Royals ($1,505,000) *
Marlins ($1,490,000)
Cardinals ($1,247,500) *
Braves ($1,210,000) *
* Teams that exceeded their bonus pool under previous CBA and cannot sign a player for more than $300K [1]

As shown above, the difference in bonus money for Shohei Ohtani ranges from a minimum of $300,000, up to $3.5 million for a few teams. He’ll make many times more than this difference in endorsements, so bonus money isn’t a deciding issue, which certainly irks some big-market behemoths. This is limited form of free agency, and Ohtani is handling it with a maturity that has obviously caught a few franchises off-guard. That makes him even more attractive to those who correctly judge & value talent.

Here is Shohei Ohtani’s summarized questionnaire to all 30 MLB organizations:

An evaluation of Shohei’s talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter;
• Player development, medical, training and player performance philosophies and capabilities;
• Major League, Minor League, and Spring Training facilities;
• Resources for Shohei’s cultural assimilation;
• A detailed plan for integrating Shohei into the organization;
• Why the city and franchise are a desirable place to play;
• Relevant marketplace characteristics.

Facts: an ace pitcher makes an entire rotation & bullpen better. It makes a manager’s job infinitely easier. There are only a few true aces in all of MLB at any given time. This is probably one, who can also hit [!], so he fits best in the NL. Why?

Assuming Shohei Ohtani gets 35 starts for an NL team and he pitches well enough to get 3.5 AB’s per start, this translates into ~125 AB’s over a season. Furthermore, these AB’s come with much less pressure to produce, as compared to DH-ing in the AL. He doesn’t need the extra pressure to produce at the plate, when he’s already considered an ace pitcher. In the NL, his plate production is “bonus,” which makes his job easier, and exponentially increases his value to those teams.

Furthermore, he could pinch hit (left-handed hitter) in every non-start game where a pitcher is removed, allowing the creative manger to maximize his value in versatility. That could be another 100 NL AB’s– at least. If he doesn’t produce at the plate, there’s limited downside in the NL. In the AL, he must produce on the mound and at the plate (at the DH standard) to be perceived as valuable.

Plus the fact he wouldn’t have to face the DH on the mound regularly in the NL. Which would you prefer for career longevity. and better numbers as a pitcher? Shohei Ohtani fits best in the NL and from a senior-circuit fan perspective, it would be nice to see the AL get hurt by their DH (artificial offense) rule once in awhile. They get too many advantages from it already.

There’s been only one Babe Ruth for a reason, baseball is the hardest sport. Even Ruth didn’t do both full-time simultaneously, and that was in the pre-integration era. Being a two-way player is a tough enough task in the easier baseball league, which is the NL. Shohei Ohtani is worth an extra 2-3 WAR per year in the NL because of this.

Everyone is just guessing where he lands, as no one knows the content the any of the teams’ questionnaire responses, or what’s in his heart. But undeniably, this is a brilliant approach for a man in Ohtani’s position.

He’ll likely choose a creative new-school manager & innovative organization. Maximum money is mostly out of the equation, to the dismay of the Yankees, Red Sox, and other big spenders. Any narrative that suggests the American League is Shohei Ohtani’s preferred destination is media propaganda & east coast bias, which favors AL power teams, but ignores inherent baseball logic & statistical analysis.

I’ll list my four National League favorites to land Shohei Ohtani. 1) Cubs have a championship roster and are in desperate need of an ace. They probably can’t win it again without one in their current window. Joe Maddon is a progressive manger, and so is their front office. Lots of media exposure and potential marketing deals in Chicago. One of the favorites, for sure. 2) Cardinals are another smart organization with qualification & need. They desperately need an ace to solidify their young starters, or else they face a rebuild. 3) Brewers need an ace to give them innings so their young starters can keep their arms attached. Their line-up is solid, and front office above average. Milwaukee is a tough blue-collar city.  4) Padres are a dark, dark horse in the media, but a serious contender in this sweepstakes. GM AJ Preller has been aggressive in the international draft, establishing baseball academies in the Pacific rim for just this reason. Ownership will now spend the posting fee, and they have plenty of young talent, as well as an ace manager & pitching coach. Ohtani could play LF for them if he’s serious (and qualified) at being a two-way player. They can only offer a $300,000 bonus.

The rest of the NL teams already have an ace (Dodgers, Nats), or are moving in the wrong direction in the win curve (Mets, Pirates, Marlins, Phillies, Reds), with behind-the-times front offices.  The Diamondbacks, Rockies & Giants have significant payroll issues affecting their rosters, making their attractiveness fleeting at best. The Braves just were sanctioned by MLB over previous improprieties, so that probably eliminates them.

If Shohei Ohtani goes to the AL, it’s the Yankees. The questionnaire sent by Shohei Ohtani to all the clubs asks specifically about game usage. The Yankees can’t really answer that question, because they haven’t hired a new manager as of this publication. [2] Ohtani will be posted in a few days, so the Yankees front office & ownership better decide on the correct skipper (& soon), so they can properly finish their homework assignment. Otherwise, they will surely lose the Ohtani sweepstakes.

So let’s summarize. This is potentially the biggest impact player to come into MLB since CF Mike Trout. That means 8-10 WAR per season, for 6-8 seasons before regression. That is inner circle HoF talent, which smart teams want for a career to be a superstar for their organization. Signing him will require more than the usual maximum money, as it will also entail a mutual agreement; first proof-of-goods by the player, then a career extension deal from the organization when it’s time. Every team has evaluated what he’s worth to them. Shohei Ohtani is methodically doing his evaluation of each organization, to find a best career fit.  I can’t wait to see him go to work on the mound.  Evey MLB fan wants him for their team, but the best fans really only wish him well in his decision….

Update: December 4, 2017– noon

It’s now Monday morning and the Padres are still the name everyone is mentioning on Shohei Ohtani. Or not mentioning actually, as “small market west coast team” is the buzz phrase, providing a fig-leaf of anonymity. Anyways– that eliminates the Dodgers, Angels & Giants. The Oakland A’s are also reportedly out. That leaves the Mariners as an AL team (disadvantage here), who are also a mess organizationally (HUGE problem). The media keeps clinging the the ghost of Ichiro-past, as if that will summon this Japanese baseball prodigy to the northwest. Anywhere but San Diego!! In reality, it is the Padres who will be getting RHP Shohei Ohtani. I know that still sounds impossible to some, but get used to it.

All the other possible-team names keep changing, and are getting no traction, but the Padres stubbornly remain on Ohtani’s list. It’s a mystery? These meetings he’s holding with the other teams are (probably) a formality, which he’s scheduled and will go through, but it’s clear (to those who see) that he’s already decided. This is also a play for time at this point by AJ Preller, with roster crunches and the Rule 5 Draft next week. That’s why the Yankees and the rest of the ESPN-led media are so upset, as they’ve been played by the maestro. It’s been beautiful to behold!

AJ Preller won this prize by out-thinking & out-hustling his opponent GM’s. He’s been the best GM in the game for awhile now, recognized by a few who notice & care. Now a few more will notice this baseball genius. Preller has a long-standing relationship with Shohei Ohtani. Preller even speaks fluent Japanese, as well as Spanish. How’s that for presentation?! Other teams are cry-babying over how they didn’t get a real chance to make their pitch, or they didn’t know what he wanted; while Preller has worked to know this kid personally for years. It’s over: Shohei Ohtani is going to San Diego, and that is why AJP just got a 3-year extension– yesterday. How upset is ESPN & the east coast media? They know all this, but don’t mention it in their write-ups or on TV. They can’t, they’re too enraged, self-interested & bitter…

AJP went into shutdown mode on Shohei Ohtani. There was zero media in the Padres forums concerning contending for Shohei Ohtani, which is what both sides (that mattered) wanted. The only flak or mentions in their forums came from this inquisitive independent baseball writer with too much time on his hands. When posting time came (Friday), AJ Preller flew in under-the-radar, and is about to land the pitching prodigy everyone coveted– for the minimum signing bonus & the $20 million posting fee.

It takes a genius to see the inconceivable and then pull it off. Preller has now won the last two international drafts by a wide margin, seeing how the Braves were recently stripped for their 2016-17 improprieties. Preller did it by spending more than anyone ever thought possible that time around. It was an ingenious strategy that caused great consternation & envy, leading to changes in the CBA rules last winter, with caps now set on international spending. This time around, with the Padres supposedly sitting in the $300,00 penalty box, Preller cashes in a longterm relationship for his organization, landing the biggest prize of them all. That’s magic [!], and Padres fans love it!!

A few points on usage with Padres manager Andy Green, and their ace pitching coach Darren Balsley. Shohei Ohtani is a pitcher first. Pitchers are typically at the mercy of their manager & organization, when it comes to game usage & medical brains. See RHP Mark Prior, who incidentally is now with the Padres front office. The best way for a stud pitcher to avoid a blowout, is to pick an organization that takes medical science seriously and values their players as more than just a piece of meat. An organization needs to take a pitcher’s opinions & philosophy into account on a human interaction level. The Padres now do this. Honestly they are the only team that checks all these boxes, so this choice is perfectly rational for Shohei Ohtani– despite what conventional-wisdom pundits may blather.

Too many old school managers push for too many innings from their young pitchers, while not expecting enough out of their veterans. The new school (correct) thinking is just the reverse, as young arms need extra protection from fatigue, until their arm strength builds up. Veteran starters need to pitch effectively through 6 innings minimum, and better yet into the 7th & 8th, to have much value. Veterans should 1) win games for good teams; and 2) have lower bullpen usage during their starts– as compared to younger starters. The same concept also applies to relievers on their usage scale.

Shohei Ohtani is probably a right handed ace (and no less than a #2), who hits left-handed. Reportedly as a hitter he strikes out a lot, but has good power. Possibly a left-handed Hunter Renfroe [?], meaning he could hit as high as 7th or 6th– on a good team. In any instance it gives him (and his team) an edge on the mound and makes his manager’s job much easier– if used properly. He’ll be giving his team more wins per start in the NL due to this. Baseball is much more interesting & real this way, don’t you think?

The San Diego Padres now jump two steps ahead in their winning curve, and every plan towards winning a World Series just got accelerated. This ship had already been moving faster than the rest in it’s building, and now they have signed the equivalent of LeBron James. In the NL West, Shohei Ohtani will be featured in LA, SF, Denver & Phoenix regularly as they play each other 18 times/season. I imagine the Yankees & Red Sox will now want the Padres to visit their ballparks when Interleague play rotates back around, instead of playing every game at Petco. The Padres are also about to sell 20,000+ new season tickets. How does that grab you?

Monday 6:00 PM

The Padres plan when Ohtani signs with them will be to sign a veteran pitcher to perform well and eat innings. I said it already: RHP Hu Darvish for 4 years for a rotation of #3 Clayton Richard, #4 Luis Perdomo & #5 Dinelson Lamet. LHP Robbie Erlin & RHP Colin Rea sent to AAA as TJ rehabs, waiting if someone falters or goes down, or a 6-man rotation becomes necessary. Plenty of young pitching depth with upside at AA on down, so it only gets better moving forward. No more talk anymore about reuniting with RHP Jhoulys Chacin, which is a nice upgrade.

LHP Brad Hand is the Padres closer, and everyone else will regret not getting him when they had their chance(s). Preller would have dealt him if someone had made a fair offer, but everyone low-balled him. That has a way of motivating players & organizations. A few effective bullpen pieces are also returning, with AJP likely finding the rest at a discount– as usual. RHP Carter Capps is the wild card in the 2018 bullpen mix.

C Hedges, 1B Myers, 2B Asuaje/Urias, SS stopgap FA/Tatis Jr, 3B Solarte/Spangenberg, RF Renfroe, CF- Margot, LF Pirela. In LF the Padres could make a trade for Christian Yelich or Ryan Braun to fill a huge need.  JD Martinez in free agency?  With Ohtani, Darvish & LF; the Padres are a wild card team in the NL West.

Padres will have improved OBP & defense, with a rotation to now match up with the big boys. AJ Preller needs to carefully manage payroll because Ohtani, Margot, Tatis and the rest need to be locked up for this plan to work. Note that neither Hu Darvish nor JD Martinez cost a compensation pick, because they were traded in 2017. In the NL, the Padres will have leap-frogged the Braves, Pirates, Marlins, Cardinals, Brewers & Rockies to be about even with the Diamondbacks, but with more upside. They were already better than the Reds, Phillies, Giants & Mets.

MLB Winter Meetings run December 10-14, and end with the Rule 5 Draft, which Preller takes seriously. I don’t know what the lag time is between signing Ohtani and having to add him to the roster, but it matters, if indeed the Padres are about to close this deal, which I believe they are. As far as the rest of MLB goes, everyone will be sour grapes and hate on the Padres for this. People publicly wish Shohei Ohtani the best, but really want him only for themselves. It’s human nature, but I agree it gets ugly too often in sports (and everywhere else) these days.

Here’s a lesson in cyber-warfare. During spring training 2017, I published an article on the possibility of the Padres acquiring Ryan Braun. It was a theoretical trade piece I wrote, because I had a strong notion that deal was being quietly discussed. Evidently was on the mark, and it exploded that trade possibility. Since then I have had a much-more difficult time posting in all MLB forums. It has required finding and removing an encryption code, which holds-up posts from publication. I was also never allowed to edit in the 5-minute window anymore. It had to be perfect when it was posted, or else I had to delete & repost, or just leave it. Responding to others was limited or impossible. Ghosting & playing with the window in-your-face, are other nasty tactics.

Since about a week ago, I’ve magically been allowed to do everything normally again.

Anyone seen this beauty before?

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Fangraphs published an Ohtani piece yesterday that mentioned the Padres, then immediately dismissed them as a serious option. And this is called “serious” sports journalism? The Hardball Times and the rest are all the same, meaning they’re in denial.

Today it’s a concession piece, that reads as if it’s been wrung out of them, as Fangraphs HATES this, but acceptance is slowly coming as we can see. It feels like outsiders are listening in here (sorta call & response like), don’t you think?  We’re all being played, Black Hand interests lurk everywhere with AJP conducting. Shohei Ohtani the subject, and I the artist narrating.

What is real & fake news? One dialectical discovery I’ve made in this process is the east coast bias is a specific political tendency, with serious reach & power. The puppet masters remain hidden, but their masks are being exposed, layer by layer. They fear & hate this above all.

Tuesday–  December 5, 2017:   ~10:00 AM

“Stability” has become the new Padres buzz word in their media releases. AJP will likely soon get back to scouting for next June’s amateur draft, where the Padres pick 7th. The international draft can be won even when sitting in the $300K penalty box, that is this year’s lesson. AJP is already planning his strategy for the next round, in which the Padres will again be limited to $300,000 max signing bonus. AJP is a baseball savant who outworks everyone else by miles.

BTW, “stability” is another signal for an Ohtani signing, as it means you have an ace, so you can settle down in the acquisition market. Stability in MLB means filling in needs, without making big trades– and then going with it. We’ll see if he actually means this, or if this is just another balloon being floated. Their current 2018 payroll commitments are well-under $40 million. Padres 2018 could be anything from another tough learning year, to a magical one. Certainly it will be more exciting.

The Padres dead money is: Matt Kemp (Hector Olivera), James Shields, Jedd Gyorko; minus KCR money for LHP Travis Wood, and LAD money for Matt Kemp– all of which balances to $6 million in 2018. Another $2M for the Padres in 2019, and that’s it.

AJP got compensation picks for J Upton & I Kennedy; traded Kimbrel for a bounty; then dumped the rest in 2016 including: Shields, Rodney, Pomeranz, M Upton, Kemp, Cashner & Norris; while keeping his best players: Myers, Solarte & Hand. Longtime prospects Renfroe, Hedges & Margot have filled in much better, with more to come. Soon it will be time to step up and fill in some needs, possibly in free agency, since they are acquiring an ace in Ohtani.

When Shohei Ohtani signs in San Diego, the Padres have the money to get a top-tier free-agent starter (ie– Darvish, Arrieta) and a LF bat (JD Martinez), without breaking their budget. This allows them to not have to trade any of their best prospects from their top-rated system. The Padres are about to become “instant contenders,” although knowledgeable fans know this took a lot of hard work. This team will have competitive staying power & upside, which is the last thing Dodgers & Giants want. That’s why this narrative is being dismissed by the biased media.

More reports of the Padres as leading contenders for Ohtani are starting to filter into MLB & ESPN news feeds. They’re going to have to report it, when it happens, after all this hype. Most aren’t thrilled, and certainly don’t understand. Anyone who has read this piece, knows more on this story & the Padres than all the mass media writers contributions– combined!

One week ago, I was the only person in the world (outside of those few who secretly already knew), who considered this deal a possibility for the Padres. I have written this story as it has developed, dissecting every relevant aspect. Normally a writer could expect to sell this story to a major media outlet (when it actually breaks), as this is the authentic account, and people would love to know how it actually happened. The only mainstream “analysis” will be clips, snippets & watered down versions from what I’ve written here. I will receive no references, nor acknowledgment that I was correct all along.

When you are blacklisted, you have to set your expectations differently. There will be no Sports Illustrated or Yahoo for me, only the satisfaction that I unfolded this story in inimitable artistic style in real time, and it will stand over everything else here for posterity. I did it when everyone else either: 1) didn’t have a clue, or 2) was lying.

Tuesday ~12:30 PM

Here’s my comment on this MLB piece concerning Shohei Ohtani’s meeting with the San Francisco Giants bandwagon delegation today.

Reality check for Giants fans: No Ohtani. No Stanton. Still old, contract-laden, and a last-place team. Time to rebuild.

This is fun.  Who’s next?  Working on a haiku for the Dodgers [!].  Seventy (70) people listening in that Giants MLB forum right now. This is how I have to market, promote & distribute myself as a blacklisted artist & journalist. Making money and getting ‘hits’ for others…

Tuesday ~2:00 PM

Source: Angels agree with prospect Maitan

Plan A: Ohtani, not happening

Plan B: top SS-prospect Kevin Maitan

A+ grade GM work getting that money from the Braves, to steal their stripped prospect!  I respect that, in this line of work.

Padres fan cheatsheet for Red Sox haters on the 2016 “AJP Suspension” by MLB

1) The suspension was officially for “undisclosed anti-inflammatories” used by LHP Drew Pomeranz. Pitchers take ibuprofen regularly, so figure that weak stuff out.
2) AJP offered Anderson Espinoza back, and the Red Sox (Dave Dombrowski) refused. They whine either way.
3) Red Sox used ESPN and their media mouthpieces (Buster Olney) to slant national coverage in their interest.
4) Red Sox have a notorious history of whining when they don’t win.
5) Red Sox are the most ungracious winners in MLB, their fan’s conduct is insufferable and that is why they’re hated even more than the Yankees these days.
6) RHP Anderson Espinoza is recovering from Tommy-John surgery, he’ll be back in 2019.

Tuesday 3:00 PM

I’ll publish my haiku titled “Sunday Match-up” now, since it’s unlikely to be seen or appreciated in the Dodgers MLB  forum– which moves at 10-12+ comments/minute, and ejects non-Dodgers fans quickly. Their television market is largely blacked-out, as ~60% of the LA residents can’t watch a Dodgers game on TV.  Thus the intense social media activity, which has more volume than the Yankees, by far. I wonder if the Dodgers brass even considered this to be a negative when they began in this “sweepstakes”?

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A haiku is a Japanese poem, 3 lines in length, with a 5-7-5 syllable structure.

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Sunday Match-up

Kershaw — Ohtani

Padres baseball thus springs forth

It’s best– don’t you think?

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Tuesday, ~5:30 PM

Fangraphs prospect chat today:

Gavin: Where would Shohei Ohtani the pitcher and Shohei Ohtani the hitter fall in MLB Prospect Rankings, respectively?

Eric A Longenhagen: #1/In the 125-200 range

Eric Longenhagen is one of the few baseball analysts in the media I actually respect. He takes prospects seriously, and uses a sound method in his analysis. He has quite an online following. The chat begins with a barrage of questions on Ohtani going to the Padres, which he really can’t answer.

Tuesday, 6:30 PM

Seattle Mariners record in 2017: 74-88

Seattle Mariners payroll obligations– no options 2018-23:

$151.5M $131.7M $108.3M $120.9M $129.2M $108.1M

So where do the Mariners fit in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes? They have an important role as the ever-hopeful dupes. The “west coast small market” label is Seattle, but comparable to the real winner– San Diego. This throws enough people off the scent for AJP, who needs until the end-of-the-week or so, to clear the Rule 5 Draft– as previously discussed. Hard to believe that a fringy minor-leaguer Preller is unwilling to part with, and a prospect arm from another organization whom he likes (?), are what’s holding everything up on Ohtani– but there you are.

Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto declined to comment on the current situation, he spoke openly of his team’s plans to pursue Ohtani on his Wheelhouse Podcast two weeks ago.

“We’re not joking around,” Dipoto said on the podcast. “We’re bringing the big guns. We’re bringing the ‘A’ team. When we sit down, we’ll be sitting down with very notable faces, and that is a part of what we want to sell. We want to sell the Seattle experience and what it means to Japanese-Americans, our culture and how this organization has trended so positively when we have the star Japanese player. And make no mistake, this is a star Japanese player. He’s gifted. He’s going to make some team a lot better.”

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Think of the Mariners as the dopey guy who thinks he is about to meet (and possibly win) the most beautiful woman anyone has ever seen, but in reality is being played– as she’s already taken. Even if Dipoto feels he being used (which he is), he still can’t resist, because the prize is too beautiful.

Tuesday 9:00 PM

The Rule 5 Draft is where many GM’s make mistakes that cost their organization, without anyone knowing until much later. AJP got right-handed starter Luis Perdomo from the Cardinals in the 2015 Rule 5 Draft. The Cards sure could use that extra starter now. Last year Preller traded to corner the top three picks [!] in the Rule 5 Draft, and every selection is still with the organization & protected.

Catcher Luis Torrens is an illustrative example of sloppy management leading to opportunistic vulturing. Preller knew the Padres weren’t going to win in 2017, so he gambled on talent acquisition and came up huge. NY Yankees GM Brian Cashman had four prospects Rule 5 drafted a year ago, and three were returned– all are now gone, either washing out or traded away. The fourth guy was Torrens, who now is safely tucked away in the Padres system. Luis Torrens will start in AA or AAA, and be ready for a call-up, as he saw quite a bit of MLB action in 2017. Padres kept three Rule 5 players, and went 71-91, as Andy Green & Brad Hand got them 12 wins above their Pythagorean.

The real reason the Yankees lost this valuable catching prospect is because Cashman was too hasty in signing free agent DH Matt Holliday. There wasn’t even a hot market for him, but Cashman inked him on December 7, 2016. and had to had him to their 40-man roster for the Rule 5 Draft on December 8, 2016, leaving Torrens exposed. If Brian Cashman had waited another day or two on Holliday, he could have avoided this loss. Holliday was worth 0.0 WAR in 2017, and is now a free agent again.

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The Rangers keep being mentioned in the Ohtani mix, but really were a shaky bet (at best) from the start, even when no one knew. When they dumped RHP Hu Darvish at the 7/31  deadline, that killed any chance they could ever have. Darvish was reportedly upset that he was even offered, then ultimately traded to the Dodgers for a prospect haul.  He wasn’t consulted, or asked how he felt about it. The Rangers have 0% chance of re-signing Darvish now, and the only “Ohtani connections” the Texas Rangers ever had, were when AJ Preller was their director of scouting before he came to be GM of the Padres. Those stale ‘connections’ won’t help Texas in this case.

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After the Yankees, the Cubs were the toughest competitor for the Padres in this hunt– in my earlier estimations.  Still a heavyweight but look closely, as this organization is already starting to crumble after its magical 2016 World Series season. RHP Jake Arrieta is gone, and not worth resigning– due to over-usage. Ace closer Aroldis Chapman even voiced his feelings over being abused my Maddon in the World Series after he signed with the Yankees.  Joe Maddon has slipped quite a bit in the eyes of those who seriously evaluate MLB managers, especially after a few Anthony Rizzo dirty slides, which he defended adamantly. Pitching coach Jim Hickey has been a big part of Maddon’s success, and that gets overlooked too much. Cubbies have the resources, but are not as progressive as some would have you believe.

That covers all the candidates, as of today the field has supposedly been reduced to seven (7) teams: Angels, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, Padres and Rangers. I’ve outlined the facts with all the reasoning. Now you decide: fake news or the truth?

Tuesday ~ 10:30 PM (Last post for today)

As typhoon Ohtani starts to zero in on San Diego, AJ Preller is doing what he’s done a few times already, to the irritation of more than a few rival GM’s. AJP is controlling the market, as he’s held the winning lottery ticket from the start, with the 29 other GM’s (more-or-less) in the dark. Recall that AJP managed the 2016 trading window up to the 8/1 deadline in that campaign in the same fashion; dumping junk and grabbing whatever he could get. He glutted the market with mediocrity, thus devaluing everything in its wake. It was a tsunami, and 15-20 teams got washed up in it.

As far as this Rule 5 Draft goes, which is to be held on  December 14th from 9-11 AM in Orlando, FL: there is no way AJP is scrapping any long-held plans for acquiring young talent on the cheap. The east coast media will surely pressure him to get this Ohtani deal done faster, when they figure out what’s been going on here. Leadership means hold fast, when others advise you to yield. All this is why AJ Preller is the best GM in MLB.

Wednesday  December 6, 2017:  ~11:00 AM

When Shohei Ohtani declares his intention to sign with the Padres, the other 29 teams can finally get back to business. The actual signing process involves the Padres paying the $20 million posting fee to MLB, which is then transferred to Ohtani’s former Japanese professional club. When the paperwork is finished & returned on that, then Ohtani is officially released from his Japanese-league contract, and can sign with the Padres. I’m estimating the whole process will take about a week or so. Just as long as Ohtani is officially inked with the Padres by next Friday (December 15), or later. This is so AJ Preller can do his Rule 5 Draft magic, and then make the necessary roster adjustments afterwards, so he doesn’t lose any assets. AJP dosen’t want to pull a Brian Cashman/Luis Torrens boner here.

Of course, the Padres brass will need to appear surprised & completely tickled over this unexpected turn-of-events, when the Ohtani decision is announced. They could never dream of being the recipients of such good fortune [!], but nonetheless it’s true. At that point, everybody in the Padres organization will have to screw on a straight face for the media, in the final act of this affair. By now, astute baseball readers should understand this whole ordeal to be the “Ohtani Affair,” as opposed to “sweepstakes.” There was never any ‘open’ competition, once it was agreed-to by MLB to post Ohtani– allowing him a 21-day free-agency window. When that owners’ agreement was unanimously ratified, the Padres had just won– although no else knew it. That’s the definition of under-the-radar.

More & more, the truth is start to filter into the major media sports news, and especially into the comments section of MLB forums. Most baseball fans are actually ahead of many of the MLB writers and “experts” in their assessments & conclusions. Many eager fans have been digging for days & weeks, trying to find some relevant facts & analysis they can hang their hats on– mostly to no avail. Slowing, but surely the facts & broad outline of events are seeping onto the Internet, somehow [?].

I expect Friday to be the Ohtani announcement day. After that, everyone in MLB packs up & flies to Orlando, for the Winter Meetings, which start on Monday, December 11. Not much left for me to discuss until then. I’ve covered it all, and once again have gotten ahead of the story. This happens to me a lot. I get my hooks into something compelling, just as it’s developing, and then find myself ahead of the curve during my research and writing. This has happened again, so now I will patiently wait for the predicted & inevitable result…

I also feel we are near the end, because this whole affair reminisces my Hurricane Irma Diary. In both situations, I place myself within the actual story, and consciously direct the action– while narrating it to the world. I feel this good-time movie is about to end, as it feels like Midnight Run (1988), in which I am Jonathan “The Duke” Mardukas (Charles Grodin); trapped, compelled, and carried along in a mad adventure that drives everyone crazy. It’s running time is 126 minutes, so it goes on somewhat longer than your typical movie, but you’re never bored; just exhausted, satisfied and relieved when it’s over. If anyone asks for my credentials: Special Agent Alonzo Mosely– FBI.

Wednesday ~2:30 PM

The Padres will end this charade with Seattle & themselves being the finalists. I forecast this list will go from 7 to 2– suddenly. Seattle’s GM Jerry Dipoto is comparable to Midnight Run-character Marvin Dorfler (John Ashton), a useful but greedy tool whom everyone keeps around when needed, but is cut-out when the pie is sliced at the end. Both see success in visions before their eyes, and both are always thinking– just before they crash their planes into a mountain. Dipoto too will be flying home, unfulfilled. All flights are non-smoking now, so I still wonder on that one a bit…

AJ Preller has to repair all this collateral damage which has occurred during this bloody campaign. This whole process was considered “going to war” by all 30 MLB teams. That’s how high the stakes are. Simply understanding AJP’s rationale (as I’ve shown) goes a long ways towards healing for many. Honestly, a lot of teams & their fans behaved very badly during this whole Ohtani-affair. The should be ashamed of themselves and look within, but instead heap derision & scorn at the victors and the prize. These haters all need to be exposed as frauds and shouted-down, permanently. The Ohtani campaign by the Padres since his posting, has been a coming-out party for this organization. Call it a surprise party, if you will.

This franchise is now officially a heavyweight, for the next 6-8 years. No other franchise outside the Yankees & Dodgers can own that statement. Can you imagine Clayton Kershaw facing Shohei Ohtani on the mound, AND in the Padres line-up? It’s happening, as it’s already a haiku. That’s going to be an AL-type batting order 1-9, when he pitches & hits for the Padres. No one in the NL wants to face that, and most in the AL doesn’t either.

Wednesday ~3:30 PM

I’ll admit I’ve had a roaring fun time crashing this Padres private party. I figure that after I get done bringing in Ohtani’s ass, I’ll call up AJP & get my cut of that $300,000, and then open up a nice coffee shop. For all you aspiring bloggers, let me just say that doing what I’ve done requires talent & dedication, as it’s a very tricky business. Over half of new blogs go under within a year. I’m not saying that as your advisor, I’m just saying that if I was your advisor, I’d have to strongly advise you against it, because it’s a very tricky business.

Wednesday  ~5:00 PM

A final significant parallel to this 1988 cinema classic are the surveillance teams. “Are they good or bad guys?” is the question that runs throughout the film. You can now figure out your own scorecard on any covert media activity in the Ohtani affair.

As far as the inner loop for the Padres goes, it starts with AJP & majority-owner Ron Fowler. AJP has been given complete control of baseball operations, so this was his baby all the way. His core group is manager: Andy Green, farm director: Sam Geaney, and scouting director: Mark Conner. They were undoubtedly in on this, early. Their media has been perfectly in-sync, indicating a long-planned & well-executed PR campaign, which went under-the-radar. That means the Padres media was in on it too. Preller unplugged the east coast immediately, particularly when the Yankees (and such) tried to bring out their brass bandwagons. That reduces buzz factor, and that was what the primary interested parties wanted.

The midwest big boys (Cubs & Rangers) have been left on low heat all along. Just being “alive” is consider awesome by some still. The west coast has been split between big & small market size. This put the Padres, Mariners & A’s in one camp; and the Dodgers, Giants & Angels in the other. The A’s were immediately eliminated. The big-market angle has been played as a negative, while small-market as positive. This keeps the west coast on a medium simmer overall. Nice hot stove cooking by AJP.

Wednesday  ~6:00 PM

In poker, it’s how you play em’ that counts. In this game AJP held a straight flush all along, even before the cards were supposedly dealt. The Angels adapted quickly, shifting to the top international prospects which the Atlanta Braves had just lost. That makes the Halos big secondary winners here. Meanwhile, the Yankees, Rangers, etc have all sat on their thumbs waiting for Ohtani to change his mind.

The Angels even used next year’s bonus pool money to make these valuable talent acquisitions. This year’s international talent is going… going… gone [!], and the east coast big boys are still at the table with the biggest piles of unused chips. Who do you spend those millions on now, if you are Brian Cashman or Jon Daniels? It’s only usable until early-July, 2018. Then everyone replenishes & resets, as the next wave of young exploitable intentional talent gets this form limited free agency. All the cream has been signed.

Look at the list I copied & pasted from MLB.com at the beginning of this piece, which showed top remaining international money to spend, by team & amount. Those teams that wished instead of worked, lost all around. You gotta admit it, AJ Preller played this one beautifully.

Shohei Ohtani has handled his interests impeccably, as he was obviously asked to work with the Padres organization concerning the exact date of his signing. His Japanese club the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Pacific League, and all his support staff have surely aided in this. Shohei Ohtani is already proving he’s an accommodating team player, even in making his American star debut.

====

I have to keep reminding myself that I need to report the mass media activity, as an accurate representation of what’s happened. Because as soon as this real story breaks, everyone changes their narrative and claims “I knew it was the Padres all along.”  I posted the earlier “Kershaw vs Ohtani AL-lineup,” snippet as a comment in the MLB Ohtani piece this afternoon. At the time, the Ohtani story was positioned second, below Aaron Boon as new Yankees manager, but above yet-another Giancarlo Stanton trade-talk piece. An hour later in the MLB main feed, the Ohtani story was dropped to 5th. Impressive, no?

Wednesday  ~8:15 PM

Bonzai!  I just checked the Padres MLB site and there’s this new article.

Preller expects to be busy at Winter Meetings

From talkin’ trade to the Rule 5 Draft, GM has full to-do list

Preller said. “I get the sense that things are going to start to open up, and you’ll start to see some activity.”

Padres beat writer AJ Cassavell & AJ Preller are just precious together, don’t you think?

I’m sitting in my underwear & t-shirt in central Florida, on the edge of my seat with anticipation…

Actually I’m grateful, as I interpret this as tomorrow. That’s nice, I can finally sign-off for the day. Sayonara.

Thursday  December 7, 2017  ~ 10:00 AM

As expected this morning, nothing new on MLB.com or the Padres MLB site, so I check back with Fangraphs. Fangraphs is baseball analytics site is run by Dave Cameron, who held an online fan Q & A chat yesterday. Here are some relevant questions he fielded on Shohei Ohtani, along with his replies…

12:05 PM
Jack: What team would benefit the most from acquiring Ohtani?

Dave Cameron: Probably the Giants or Mariners, both of whom have questionable futures once their core ages out of contention in the not too distant future.

12:14 PM
Hae-Lo Dee: You’re handed a thousand dollars with the stipulation that it has to be placed on a bet for what team Ohtani signs for. Which team do you put it on?

Dave Cameron: Probably the Mariners.

12:18 PM
Hae-Lo Dee: What do you think the chances are that Ohtani has decided already, but is playing out the decision for no reason other than due diligence?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess he probably had a preference going into this thing, but is open to a team changing his mind.

12:25 PM
Bob: Rank the 7 teams still in on Ohtani in order of probability of landing him (in your opinion).

Dave Cameron: SEA-SF-big gap-LAD-ANA-SD-TEX-CHC

12:33 PM
Matt H: What would a moderately optimistic estimate of Ohtani’s 2018 WAR be?

Dave Cameron: +6

12:59 PM
Dave Cameron: Alright, have to go meet with a lawyer for a bit. Thanks for hanging out everyone.

Fangraphs also published an Ohtani article, making a case for him going to the Cubs. I wrote-up that angle a few days ago, and today it’s dead; but here’s Fangraphs covering it now. Almost every time I go to their site, I get a pop-up window asking me for money. No thanks.

Thursday ~ noon

Why do I keep punishing Fansgraphs, ESPN and the shills at MLB? It’s not just because they are liars. AJ’s Cassavell & Preller lie too, but when I bust them in the comments section of their forums, they’ve learned to notice & react appropriately. They acknowledge my power & influence, and know they can’t fool me– so we’re cool. A lie only hurts, if you believe it.

With Fangraphs and the rest of those fucks, they simply refuse to admit they’ve been busted down to their underwear, and continue to lie as before. This is the same as Trump, Clinton, Bush, Sanders and all the rest of politics, personified and refracted through the lens of media manipulation– known as east coast bias.

====

Today is Pearl Harbor Day. On this day in 1941, Japanese imperialism launched a surprise attack on the US naval base in Hawaii, thus bringing the United States & Japan into conflict. World War II ended with two atomic bombs being dropped on the civilian cities of Hiroshima & Nagasaki. Most Japanese people still consider this horrible act to be a war crime. Most Americans view it differently.

San Diego maintains the largest naval fleet & marine base in the world, so any of this “small market” stereotyping that’s been going on during the Ohtani affair, is completely ridiculous. I often wonder how foreign players feel when the “Star-Spangled Banner” is being played, while they are surrounded by full military trappings & jet fly-overs? Sometimes, I feel like I’m the only one who thinks these thoughts.

I’ve gone back and edited everything from start to finish, correcting all typos and other mistakes, added links, etc. This running summary of events is around  7500 words, spanning a week-and-a-half in time.  The irony of this Ohtani story is that when it “breaks,” this authentic account will be completed, while everyone else scrambles to get their version of the truth published & noticed. That’s how blacklists and fake news interact.

Thursday  ~1:30 PM

This is new, (but listed 3rd) on the Padres MLB homepage:

Report: Padres met with Ohtani on Tuesday
By AJ Cassavell / MLB.com | @AJCassavell

SAN DIEGO — The Padres were the last of the seven teams to meet with two-way Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani, doing so on Tuesday night in Los Angeles, according to Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan…

It appears that Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan is about to “break the story,” Shohei Ohtani is going to the San Diego Padres! Soon will be “official.” Ain’t that something? I know I’ll be relieved, because if it had been the Mariners or Dodgers, I was going to have a lot of re-editing to do.

Also in the news during this 10-day span: Trump ready to go to war with North Korea; Wildfires burning out of control in California; Massive tax cuts for rich approved by both houses of Congress; Conflicts within US ruling class intensify following Flynn guilty plea; Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israeli capital sparks anger & protests; etc…

Over & Out

Friday, December 8, 2017 ~1:00 PM

There’s an old expression is baseball that goes; it ain’t over until it’s over.

It looks like there are a few clowns who want to go extra innings, when the score is 128-0. I’ve already introduced this Charlie Brown caricature, take a look at his latest weak stuff.

Despite scrutiny, officials expect MLB probe after Shohei Ohtani decision

11:55 AM ET Buster Olney ESPN Senior Writer

This will surely backfire into kamikazee, anti-east coast bias feedback– from fans who know the source.  But that doesn’t mean they won’t try their worst! These rabid dog pack-journalists never will learn, and therefore they must be beaten into submission. That is a valuable lesson. I’m thinking possibly an “undisclosed Rule 5 Draft agenda…”

=====

Still no “official” announcement Shohei Ohtani has chosen the Padres. Likely later this afternoon (IMO), west coast time. The posting & transfer process will then begin. Of course, it’s late on the east coast and already Saturday in Japan, so they’ll get back to it on Monday there, which will be Sunday here. Crazy timing, huh?

Here’s another little coincidence for you. When I went to check the MLB site(s) on Friday morning– December 8, their page format which they have used for the last 5+ years has been completely changed. This is for the main site and ALL the teams; COMPLETELY reformatted, with everything repositioned and jumbled around. People are obviously confused, as the number of comments is way down. Maybe this is due to the fact that many comments’ sections that don’t even load. I try to post something on the latest Stanton piece— forget-about-it!  This gets me thinking…

I click on a few of my links above, and they all load, but only the article [!]– no comments that others & I posted are to be seen. It’s a good thing I saved & published everything I posted, otherwise MLB, it’s writers, and fans wouldn’t have access to what happened during the Ohtani affair. Hey, I’m always thinking.

Friday,  2:18 PM

It would be wise & brave for the Padres war room to agree to whole-heartedly take on this unfair east coast bias, while the iron is hottest. The east coast powers-that-be will never respect the Padres, until they kick a little ass in this area.  Also, what about the kid’s feelings? Speak from your heart when you declare Shohei Ohtani!  This is a watershed franchise moment for the Padres, and a crossroads for MLB.

I can interfere no longer, you must use the force wisely AJP.

Friday,  3:40 PM

If A.J. Preller is a genius (and he is), then what am I?

Wile E. Coyote, super-genius, and it’s just like that Mel Blanc cartoon character, as we both have guile & ingenuity, but ACME keeps sending us defects, so everything always blows up in our faces. We’re both funnier & easier to understand when our voices are heard. It may be hilarious to watch on television, but how many times can you be sent off a cliff, plunging a thousand feet below into a ‘poof’ of smoke, and then dust yourself off still dazed & hungry, trying to figure out another brilliant plan while the brainless roadrunner zooms by again?

Proof: MLB reports Shohei Ohtani signs with the Angels.

Friday, December 8  6:11 PM

I had waited to see if this was a zig-zag by AJP, to short-circuit a potential MLB investigation, but it isn’t. He may still be investigated, even though he lost.  I leave what I’ve published above untouched, as this article is a character study more than anything else, and I have no issue admitting I was wrong about where RHP Shohei Ohtani would land in the end. It appears the Black Hand has stepped in, and there’s nothing anyone can do about that at this time.

The official Padres narrative is now that they lost Ohtani because they didn’t have enough money, and he wanted to DH. That’s just the opposite of what everybody claimed & indicated for weeks & weeks, but now it’s suddenly peddled as the truth.  In a nutshell, the Red Sox were never players here, so their strategy was to foil the apparent victors– the Padres (whom they HATE), forcing Preller to kick Ohtani to his buddy Billy Eppler, or else MLB (Red Sox) would have eventually stripped and sanctioned the Padres. When ESPN media ran out Buster Olney, that was the signal. AJP complied.

The Black Hand message: move along everybody– move along; nothing to see here. This blog has done major damage to MLB, ESPN, many others’ credibility– even the Padres. No apologies to any of them.

That was my ultimate purpose from the start, as I am a revolutionary socialist, against this form of capitalist exploitation. Shohei Ohtani is worth many times more than what he’s getting, and so are all the others. As a Padres fans I would have loved to have him, but wish him well with the Angels. In sum, AJP may have  overplayed his hand [?], and probably should have closed the deal with Ohtani as soon as he could of, instead of concerning himself too much with the Rule 5 Draft. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose, and sometimes something greater things matters more.

Wile E Coyote is at his wits end, a bit scathed, and “officially” Over & Out in this blog episode.

[Final editing completed 9:52 AM Saturday, December 9. No one is smart enough to figure all THAT out– instantly.]

Buster Busted:

Final image uploaded at 12:13 PM, Sunday December 10, 2017

Final score in extra, EXTRA innings: Angels— 150, as they got Ohtani, Maitan and a few others for being Johnny-on-the-spot, combined with good hustling by GM Billy Eppler. That earns him a promotion to Taipan; Padres-– 50, (for merit in wisely avoiding a bigger trap (set by the Red Sox); MLB & the rest— 0. Ric Size— infinity.

………….<><><><><><><>………..

Trade Deadline Results & NL Round-Up

Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make.

Steve Stone as color man to the late, great Harry Carey used to repeat that quote often on WGN Cubs’ broadcasts. Everyone said Padres GM AJ Preller HAD to trade Brad Hand (below). His value would never be higher! He’s useless on a bad team, etc…

The most coveted & valuable player this Trade deadline (now past), is staying in San Diego. The MLB Trade deadline is about competitive teams gearing up for a World Series run. Everyone talks about ace starters, and they are what’s most valuable during the regular season. But they aren’t what’s available, as RHP’s Sonny Gray (A’s) & Yu Darvish (Texas) topped the list of available starters that actually were traded.

Yu Darvish (above) was costly, even as a 3-month rental, but the Dodgers kept their top prospects. RHP Justin Verlander was even dicier for the Tigers, considering his age and contract owed, so he stayed in Detroit. None were more coveted than Padres ace lefty reliever Brad Hand.

As we all know, every post-season comes down to the bullpens. Aces can no longer pitch complete games with any regularity, so it’s constantly a battle of bullpens from the 6th and 7th inning on. It’s the team that gets the toughest outs (late) that wins, and that means premium value for ace set-up pitchers. Brad Hand is Andrew Miller valuable (with a better contract), so Padres GM AJ Preller valued him accordingly. There was a precedent set the year before by the Yankees GM Brian Cashman, to extract something similar to what he received in dealing Miller (below) to Cleveland & LHP Aroldis Chapman (a rental) to the Cubs.

Also notice in this discussion I haven’t mentioned the value of acquiring a hitter at the deadline. That’s because there is very little. The rule is: acquire only to keep a position from falling into replacement level & adding depth. The exception is: Unless a HOF-bat with some peak years left becomes available. There were no HOF hitters available this deadline.

Don’t “acquire a veteran bat” because basically they’re worthless due to bad defense, which means giving up prospects for something that isn’t an upgrade. That’s why OF’s Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, etc… attract so little interest. They’re overpaid, overrated players who perform at (or below) replacement level. Teams like the Mets who don’t understand this get stuck with players like these. One way to screw up a promising pitching core is to pay top dollar to put bad defense behind them, and poor hitters in the lineup. The Braves have the same issue.

AJ Preller controlled the market, by NOT trading the biggest prize. Detroit’s closer LHP Justin Wilson was the best reliever that was actually dealt (to the Cubs).  Baltimore couldn’t deal its lefty closer Zach Britton because of injury issues, as he’s too much of a TJ surgery candidate.  In the end, desperate teams had to scramble back to their second options, or worse. See: Nationals acquire closer Brandon Kintzler from the Twins.

Meanwhile the Padres retained their ace closer for another season– at least. Brad Hand will get a nice raise in arbitration, while still being an amazing bargain, helping the Padres win games they would otherwise lose. Those kind of players are really, really valuable. AJ Preller set a reasonable price, and no one was willing to pay what Brad Hand is actually worth, so no deal was consummated for the plum relief ace of this year’s trade season. Every contender, save one [!] is going to regret not trying a little harder to get Brad Hand at some point this October.

NL Round-Up:

Brewers lost another “must-win” game in their rubber match at Miller Park with the Cubs on Sunday (7-30). Brewers fans can choose to 1) believe in 2017, or 2) notice their righty set-up men all stink, and 3) their starting pitching is breaking down (as usual), with RHP Jimmy Nelson as their only front line horse currently not on the DL. The rest of their starters are mediocre-to-poor. The Brew Crew are also below replacement level at 2B & CF.

Brewers fans love 3B Travis Shaw (from the Red Sox), and especially RF Domingo Santana (above– acquired in the Carlos Gomez & Mike Fiers-to-HOU deal) because they are both young and productive. 1B Eric Thames had a fluky hot start, but has cooled since; proving he’s nothing the Brewers should invest a future in. RF Ryan Braun can’t stay healthy, so GM David Stearns can’t deal him. Braun’s chronic injuries are turning a Hall-of-Fame productive hitter into an albatross contract for the small-payroll Milwaukee Brewers.

There are still too many holes to fill, and neither enough money from ownership to cover to the necessary payroll increase, nor the willingness to pay what it would cost in prospects for Sonny Gray, Yu Darvish & Brad Hand (and that’s just pitching need alone) to stay with the Cubs. The Brewers would be emptying their farm system on what would still be a flawed team, which is a mistake.

The Cubs probably won the NL Central when they acquired LHP Jose Quintana (above) from the White Sox. Acquiring left-handed reliever Justin Wilson and backup catcher Alex Avila from the Tigers at the deadline filled the Cubs bullpen & depth needs. The Cubs have Theo Epstein & Jed Hoyer (below) running the show, which is about as good as it gets for baseball management. They made the best deals to get what they needed at the deadline, and improved themselves the most. Their chances of repeating have increased dramatically, while the cost in prospects was considerable, but tolerable.

The truly bad National League teams all currently reside in last place, and will finish there. These are the Phillies & Reds (no surprise), and the Giants which was unexpected. The Phils & Reds are direction-less, lacking leadership at the top. Don’t expect either of their fortunes to change until there are major front office shake-ups.

The Giants are now facing a complete rebuild, after a successful run in winning 3 World Series championships in 5 seasons. Giants GM Brian Sabean will need to take a long look at his organization this winter, as their championship window appears to have closed. They now have an aging & payroll-heavy roster that needs to be turned over. In many ways they are simliar to the Cardinals, but in a tougher division.

The NL West winner will be the Dodgers, and they will have the best overall record in MLB, which now decides home field advantage in the World Series match-up. More on them below. Both NL Wild Cards will come out of the West, in the Diamondbacks & Rockies– both of which were unexpected.

Of the two, the team more likely to be competitive in 2018-and-beyond are the Diamondbacks, with their ownership commitment and new front office. Arizona’s farm system needs to be rebuilt after the damage former-GM Dave Stewart inflicted upon it, and this limits their ceiling in 2017. They probably don’t have the organizational strength to match the Dodgers or Cubs in October, and will likely have to content themselves with a Wild Card and post-season appearance in 2017. But then again it’s baseball, and stranger things have happened…

The Rockies have a promising young pitching staff, which is carrying them in 2017. They will need to keep it healthy, and (of course) find an ace in order to take the next step competitively. I have my reasons for pessimism, and it mostly centers around Rockies GM Jeff Bridich’s decision making. The Ian Desmond signing (5/$70M) has been a bust for Colorado (-0.9 WAR in 2017, and currently on the DL). Only 3B Nolan Arenado (below), and SS Trevor Story are young enough to build around. The rest are veterans, some of whom are having great seasons (CF Charlie Blackmon & 2B DJ LeMahieu), but will soon be too expensive and in decline. Another example of how poorly the Rockies spend their money is LF Carlos Gonzalez. In 2017: -1.3 WAR (so far) for $20 million. The Rockies are having a great season (by their standards), but don’t expect a repeat of this team’s success in 2018.

As for the rest of the NL, most fit into an amorphic mass of slightly-below-average, veteran-heavy teams including: the Marlins, Braves, Mets, Cardinals & Pirates. Competitively, all these teams are similar to the Brewers as explained above; too many holes in their roster and not enough organizational strength & money to fix them. The Pirates are a typical example. The have the stud in CF Andrew McCutchen (below), but not enough around him. The have some decent young starters, but not enough… I can see how that would be frustrating for a Bucs fan…

The Marlins are impossible to deal with, as long as this team is up for sale. Right now, owner Jeffery Loria (below with NBA star Dwayne Wade) is trying to exploit every advantage in the market to maximize the sale price for his Miami Marlins. That means retaining all valuable assets, so nothing of significant value is moving here anytime soon. This franchise was decimated in 2016 by bad trades, and the tragic death of ace RHP Jose Fernandez.

Padres Update:

The San Diego Padres are again the outliers among the second-division in the NL, but this time in a good way. They are by far the youngest team in MLB, and yet they aren’t the worst. In the spring, the Padres were universally picked by MLB ‘experts’ to end up with the worst record in baseball– ~66 wins projected by most analysts. They currently sit in 4th place in the NL West at 47-58. Their current .448 winning percentage translates into 72.5 wins over 162 games.

The Padres are last in OBP. They have scored only 400 runs, while allowing 533. Their Pythagorean W-L is 39-66, which means the Padres have over-played their W-L record by eight games– so far. Padres are 4-4 in extra innings, and 13-13 in one-run games. Good & bad teams typically split those contests 50-50, which means extreme luck hasn’t been a factor in this over-performance by the Padres.

The reason the Padres record is so much better than their numbers is leadership & coaching. Last season I stated that rookie manager Andy Green was already a top-5 MLB manager. He’s moved up another notch, or two since. Andy Green handled Cubs manager Joe Maddon on Anthony Rizzo’s cheap-shot slide into C Austin Hedges perfectly.

Hedges missed a few days with a thigh contusion, while Cubs 1B Rizzo wasn’t suspended by Joe Torre and MLB. Padres fans weren’t surprised by any of this. Andy Green handled it, by not retaliating. This made headlines as Joe Maddon, Anthony Rizzo and the rest of their supporters looked like a bunch of bush-league blow-hards. Honestly, I was surprised by Maddon’s obtuse commentary & apologetics, after the fact.

The Padres started the season with three Rule 5 picks on their 25-man roster. All three are still with the team, as SS/UT Allen Cordoba (Cardinals) and C Luis Torrens (Yankees) are earning significant playing time for Andy Green. RHP Miguel Diaz (Brewers) is on the 10-day DL with forearm tightness, and may be shut down for the season. In that event, he’ll only need < 2 weeks with the Padres in 2018, before he’s sent back down to the minors. The point is, all three Rule 5 picks are staying with the Padres, and they won’t lose anywhere close to 100 games, despite what the ‘experts’ proclaimed.

Padres GM AJ Preller signed 4 [!] free-agent starters on one-year contracts this past winter, for <$2M each. Trevor Cahill pitched well-enough to be flipped to the Royals with LHP Ryan Buchter (valuable set-up guy) and Brandon Mauer (useless). In return Preller got LHP Travis Wood to start the rest of 2017 and all of 2018 for $1.5 million, along with a few prospects. That’s called getting ahead of the winter free-agent pitching market, while adding depth to your system.

The Padres always presume they can improve a pitcher’s performance, because they have the best pitching coaching in Darren Balsley (above). LHP Clayton Richard and RHP Jhoulys Chacin have performed as expected; innings eaters who get pounded too often. Only RHP Jered Weaver completely busted, and is probably finished for his career. Three-out-of-four on free-agent starting pitchers is an outstanding return-on-investment.

This is a developmental year for the Padres, and a big part of that is keeping their young starters (RHP’s Luis Perdomo & Dinelson Lamet) healthy by limiting their innings. This goes for Perdomo in particular, who threw 146.2 innings as a Rule 5 rookie in 2016. In that sense, the innings absorbed by Richard & Chacin have helped the franchise immensely, making their contracts a tremendous value to the Padres.

AJ Preller (above) has achieved a stunning organizational turn-around since the end of 2015. New manager Andy Green and longtime ace pitching coach Darren Balsley have worked with Preller in this development of young talent at all their levels. The results are now starting to show in the majors, as the Padres aren’t as bad as everyone claimed and what’s more, they’re also getting better faster than most anticipated. The OBP & SLG they lack in their MLB lineup, along with waves of premium pitching talent, are in the pipeline. Player development, as well as injury management & prevention, will determine this franchise’s fate.

Dodgers & Nationals:

A few weeks after the Rizzo/Hedges slide controversy, Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts completely lost face in this incident, and was suspended one [!] game by MLB for shoving Andy Green as he was walking back to his dugout. Doc Roberts claimed he felt provoked by what Green had said during their discussion with the umpires.

Dodgers fans should be concerned over Dave Roberts’ volatility & decision-making under duress. It’s suspect at best. It’s easy to manage when everything is clicking, so Roberts looks good now and will probably be voted “Manager of the Year” by the sports-writing media. In reality, he’s not even Top-10, if that tells you anything about what you’re told.

The Dodgers’ post-season hopes depend (as always) on a LHP Clayton Kershaw, who is currently on the DL with a chronic back issue. They’ve got a ton of talent and a loaded farm system under GM Andrew Friedman, and have been the best team all season. They won the Yu Darvish sweepstakes, while retaining their top prospects, so its their pennant to win without mortgaging the future. Sent to Texas were 2B/OF Willie Calhoun, who was the Dodgers’ No. 4-ranked prospect, RHP A.J. Alexy (No. 17) and IF Brendon Davis (No. 27). Good deal for both sides.

The Washington Nationals will win the NL East, but their post-season prospects are dimming. Already righty starter Joe Ross has been lost to TJ. Ace RHP Stephen Strasburg is currently on the 10-day DL. Max Schertzer & Gio Gonzalez are holding the rotation together, but another major injury will likely doom their WS chances in 2017.

Nationals starters (and players) are hitting the DL with regularity again. How bad is it?  Veteran RHP Edwin Jackson is now in their rotation due to injury attrition. Meanwhile the Nationals needed relief pitching help more desperately than any other serious contender. They would have had to deal the best of what’s left in their farm system to acquire Brad Hand. Nat’s GM Mike Rizzo instead acquired A’s relievers lefty Sean Doolittle & veteran righty Ryan Madson, along with Twins closer Brandon Kintzler at the deadline. As a rule, quantity over quality doesn’t work, especially in the post-season.

Nationals manager Dusty Baker (above) is once again pushing to get his injured players back sooner, rather than later: “You’ve got to get them back soon enough to be sharp and effective in the post-season,” Baker said. “Because [if they’re] back … just to be back and not sharp, it’s going to be detrimental to us. But we’d love to have them back, as they’re my starters. I’m hoping that we kind of get them back one at a time in chronological order to help us.” [1]

All this rushing (and useless “hoping”?) with the Nationals ahead comfortably, holding a 13-game lead in the National League East! And people wonder how Dusty Baker wrecks so many arms?

In conclusion, the NL post-season will be wide open with the Cubs having the most complete roster & best leadership, while not necessarily being the best team in 2017. I object to the DH, so I’ll leave the AL discussion– until the World Series.

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Catching Tandems in Focus

AJ Pierzynski_C_Age 39

MLB catchers always need to be discussed & understood as a tandem for their teams. Even the very best need a day (or two) off per week, and all catchers suffer at the plate from the fatigue & grind of the position. An adequate back-up catcher is crucial to late-season success for any team. Conversely, if C is inadequately stocked, this critical defensive position will quickly become an Achilles heel for any team. Exhibit A are the 2016 Atlanta Braves.

Tyler Flowers_C_Age 30

The narrative fed to Braves fans for the 2016 season has been rebuilding, yet ATL GM John Coppolella [on 12-10-15] traded age-24 C Christian Bethancourt to the Padres, for age-26 righty reliever Casey Kelly (2016 thru 8/13: 0-3, 5.82 ERA, 21.2 IP, 1.708 WHIP) & an age-18 (highly-iffy) prospect. The Braves organization & their fans made it clear they were frustrated with Bethancourt’s lack of development, despite his great potential. ATL had seen enough, and they instead went into 2016 with a catching tandem of A.J. Pierzynski (age 39, .216/.233/.301) & Tyler Flowers (age-30, .253/.343/.425, 53G, currently on the DL). Braves as of this writing are 44-73, worst record in MLB. That’s not rebuilding, that’s being stupid and selling a future short.

Craig Kimbrel & Christian Bethancourt

C Christian Bethancourt

Season Age Team G PA   AVG/OBP/SLG
2015      23   ATL   48 160  .200/.225/.290
2016      24   SDP   61 160  .243/.275/.414

The Padres, whom many ‘experts’ mocked as ‘directionless’ went with a catching tandem of Derek Norris & Christian Bethancourt (who is out of options); sending top-rookie catcher Austin Hedges to AAA. Hedges raked, then (unfortunately) broke his right hamate bone. Hedges had it surgically removed. He rehabilitated and returned to AAA El Paso, continuing to mash (65G .340/.373/.635). Austin Hedges always been rated as a top-level receiver. He’s being held at AAA by the Padres because; 1) El Paso Chihuahuas are in first place, and 2) arbitration clock management.

Austin Hedges_C_Age 23

Derek Norris was the Padres starting C in 2016, and had a tough season– for all kinds of reasons, many not his fault. Now the trade deadline is past (contract pitchers sold-off), so Bethancourt is getting more starts behind the plate. Norris remains a solid catcher, which has value. Norris is now arbitration eligible, and will be free-agent eligible in 2019. At age 27, he earns $2.9M in 2016, which is fair, despite the replacement-level batting line of .191/.254/.347. Norris has some pop, but makes too many outs at the plate, to be a championship-level starting catcher. He’s a top-10 defensive catcher and handles pitchers very well. That’s why AJP didn’t just give him away at the 8/1 deadline. Derek Norris is undervalued, in a market that mostly doesn’t understand defense.

Derek Norris_C_Age 27

Defensive runs-saved is a huge inefficiency that has been corrected by leading organizations including the Tampa Bay Rays & 2015 World Series champion Kansas City Royals. For reference, the defensive spectrum runs C-SS-2B-CF-3B-RF-LF-1B-DH. Active catchers, getting extra strikes (and all the rest) for their pitchers are HUGE. C Jose Molina (15 seasons .233/.282/.327) made a career of it, helping good teams win year-after-year, in spite of his punchless bat.

Jose Molina_C

A.J. Preller has a decision to make on catchers Derek Norris and Christian Bethancourt, as Austin Hedges will likely be the Padres Opening Day catcher in 2017. Bethancourt is still young, and has shown much improvement. He might profile more as a back-up catcher, with his rudimentary receivership skills. If he can continue to improve (especially defensively) at the MLB level, he could be just what the Padres need– a caddy for Hedges. Bethancourt’s chase rate (swinging at pitches outside the strike zone) is still too high, hence his low OBP (.275). The power has developed, but it needs to be tempered with a more-patient plate approach. He still swings himself into tough counts, and out of too many at-bats. Winter ball (or some other development league) is probably required for Christian Bethancourt.

Bethancourt can play OF some, which helps Andy Green, and he’s even mopped-up on the mound a few times during blow-outs. Right now with CF Jon Jay still on the DL, the Padres have only starting outfielders (Dickerson, Jankowski, Blash) on their active roster. Bethancourt can play corner OF, if needed. Adam Rosales works the same way, as Andy Green’s utility infielder, with some pop. Ben Zobrist is the championship-level version of this modern utility player. Ask Cubs manager Joe Maddon if this kind of flexibility is valuable?

Ben Zobrist_Utility Man

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Padres Patchwork Pitching

Padres recall veteran right-hander Morrow
Return to big leagues comes more than year after sustaining shoulder injury 8-13-16
Padres manager Andy Green really needs a reliable long man out of the pen, and Buddy Baumann (5.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 1.688 WHIP) wasn’t the answer. Plenty of reasons to be skeptical on Brandon Morrow being effective again, but at this point it’s try anything.

Brandon Morrow_RHP

[8/13 Results] James Shields vs. Marlins (ND) 3 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 2 HR, 0 SO
Jared Cosart vs. Mets (ND) 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 SO; 89 pitches, Padres committed 3 errors behind him. Jacob deGrom was a little better. Mets rallied for a run in the 7th inning, off young Padres reliever Jose Dominguez. Brandon Morrow pitched a 1-2-3 8th inning in his 2016 debut. Jeurys Familia brought in to close it out, but 1B Wil Myers homers with 2 outs, tying it at 2-2. Bullpen wars until the Mets manufacture a run in the 11th, winning 3-2.

Current 6-man rotation, all numbers with Padres through 8/13:

Age 28 LHP Christian Friedrich 4-8 W/L, 4.84 ERA, 87.1 IP, 1.489 WHIP
Age 23 RHP Luis Perdomo 5-6 W/L, 6.80 ERA, 94.0 IP, 1.862 WHIP
Age 32 RHP Edwin Jackson 3-1 W/L, 3.62 ERA, 32.1 IP, 1.237 WHIP
Age 28 RHP Paul Clemens 1-2 W/L, 4.03 ERA, 22.1 IP, 1.299 WHIP
Age 26 RHP Jared Cosart 0-0 W/L, 5.03 ERA, 14.1 IP, 1.560 WHIP
Age 32 LHP Clayton Richard 0-0 W/L, 6.75 ERA, 1.1 IP, 3.000 WHIP

Padres starting pitching is already scary bad, keeping in mind that Perdomo & Friedrich need to be shut down by September, or so. Edwin Jackson may well end up as their second-most valuable starter (after Drew Pomeranz– traded to BOS) when the season is over. Cubs are paying the last of his 4/$48M deal, which is nice.

RHP Edwin Jackson & GM Jed Hoyer

Jared Cosart is the intriguing project for Balsley & Green, so Padres fans are looking (hoping) for improvement. He’ll be in the 2017 rotation mix.  Paul Clemens is a long-shot at best, but the Padres are happy to have him. Clayton Richard is a usable arm to help finish this season, while reducing the workload on their young starters and relievers.

Ryan Buchter_lefty reliever

Righty set-up men Brandon Mauer & Jose Dominguez, and lefties Ryan Buchter (pictured above) & Brad Hand are valuable bullpen pieces. They also can’t be overworked. Brandon Morrow (and his like) are on the active roster to get the Padres through the season, so later effectiveness & health aren’t compromised in these young relievers. GM A. J. Preller & Andy Green have a lot more pieces in place, compared to one year ago. They just need to protect their young arms, and develop a few more.

Padres power up, hold off rally to top Mets 8-12-16
Andrew Cashner tonight 5 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 5 BB, L to CWS. In 16 1/3 innings since joining the Marlins, Cashner’s ERA is 6.61, allowing 22 hits and 12 earned runs. Next it’s James Shields against the Marlins; so far 3-7, 6.62 ERA in 62 IP for the White Sox. [see results above] Drew Pomeranz 0-2, 5.26 ERA in 5 starts, 25.2 IP for BOS. Fernando Rodney 1-2, 5.40 ERA 18,1 IP has also been a disaster for the Marlins bullpen. The waivers pick-ups (Edwin Jackson & Paul Clemens) have been better pitchers for the Padres.

RHP Paul Clemens

Nice work by Padres GM A.J. Preller, who has scraped up enough starters (three from the Marlins: Jackson, Clemens & Cosart) to get his young arms through the season, while maximizing their development.  If he needs more, he’ll find them.

Padres, Clemens eye turnaround at Citi Field 8-12-16
Padres have Clemens going for them tonight at Citi Field.  Game on, Mets fans!

Piazza-Clemens 2

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Best GM in MLB

The biggest winner at this year’s trade deadline has been the San Diego Padres, as they were involved in virtually every significant deal from mid-June through 7/31. This went all the way back to when GM A. J. Preller sent All-Star closer Fernando Rodney to the Marlins. Since then it was: RHP James Shields (White Sox), LHP Drew Pomeranz (Red Sox), LF BJ Upton (Blue Jays), and RHP’s Cashner & Rea (Marlins), and the final atom bomb– the RF Matt Kemp salary dump to ATL.

Outside of NYY/CHC closer Aroldis Chapman, up until the day of the trade deadline, Preller had the market under his control.  This year the trade deadline was extended to  8/1, due to the calendar, and there were 18 deals on that day alone [1], a veritable avalanche of trade activity, finally releasing itself after A.J. Preller dominated the market for 6 weeks.

Nationals land closer Melancon from Pirates 7-30-16
Padres fan here: Great deal for the Nationals. An ace closer is just what they needed. Hopefully the Pirates got value in return. Nats management did its job, now it’s up to Dusty and his players.

Mike Dee & AJ Preller

Sometime soon, all the baseball ‘experts’ are going to attempt to understand this trade deadline in terms of winners & losers, and will soon come to realize that Padres GM A.J. Preller owned most of this trading season, as he had first skim (Pomeranz), and second skim (Cashner/Rea) at the top prospect cream available, receiving ace-level prospect packages for each.

Rea leaves Marlins debut early with elbow soreness

Velocity dips in 3 1/3-inning start; righty will be evaluated over next couple of days 7-31-16

Really poor scouting & executive decision-making by the Marlins.  This was a red-flag injury risk. Colin Rea (a rookie) was at 99.1 IP– his career high, and was struggling to get batters out. Padres were preparing to shut him down, when suddenly he’s sought after by Marlins GM Mike Hill at the deadline. What’s Preller to do? Unfortunately for Rea, Hill was expecting him to be a reliable back-end starter on a contender. That plan lasted 3.1 IP, and now Rea’s on the 15-day DL, with the Marlins back in the market for a starting pitcher. Jared Cosart, perhaps?

Mike Hill_GM

It was silly for MIA to rush Rea onto the mound, after he was just dealt the day before. Medical staff- FAIL. Scouting- FAIL. GM- FAIL. This can kill a competitive window for a team on the edge like Miami. By contrast, manager Andy Green & pitching coach Darren Balsley got to look at newly acquired RHP Jared Cosart the same day in a bullpen session, just to get familiar with their latest asset.  Their pitching situation is much more desperate than the Marlins, yet the Padres are more patient & thorough.  The report was everything checked out, so Cosart starts on 8/2.  Meanwhile, he’ll get to know his new teammates for a few days before being asked to go into battle with them, which is nice.  He’s pitched only 19 innings this year, and has a live arm w/ sink. Just what the Marlins need.

Final Update 8-3-17: Marlins GM Mike Hill felt compelled to claim ‘damaged goods’ and demanded A.J. Preller to take RHP Colin Rea back, after just one start.  The Marlins ordered no MRI on his elbow before insisting, and had no idea to the extent of his injury.  Preller defended his position with the arguments given above, at the time of the deal, but felt obliged as ‘good business’ to revisit the deal. 

Marlins owner Jeff Loria & GM Mike Hill may have threatened to damage his and the Padres’ reputation, if they didn’t take Rea back.  Preller acquiesced on this, and returned A-ball prospect RHP Luis Castillo, who was part of the 7-player deal.  Padres immediately welcomed Colin Rea back, despite the abuse his elbow received in his 3-day stint with Marlins. Preller immediately sent for an MRI. If his elbow had no structural damage, then Preller would have immediately won this deal twice. They probably still have regardless, as recovery from Tommy John surgery is now very predictable.

It turns out to be (likely) TJ surgery for Colin Rea, who’s still under team control until 2022.  Eighteen months for recovery will put him ready for Spring Training 2018.  Young starting pitching proved a valuable commodity on the trade market this year (in case you didn’t notice), so it’s always a good idea to hold onto it.

Final, final updates:  After return to SD, Rea to undergo TJ surgery   8-5-16

Padres drawing scrutiny after trades with Marlins, Red Sox by Buster Olney @ ESPN.com  8-6-16  “According to sources [?], the Red Sox have become aware of medical information with Pomeranz that they believe was not properly disclosed during trade talks.”

If the Red Sox & MLB have any evidence, then please reveal it, otherwise this reeks of a smear campaign against the Padres. Would ESPN be part of any East coast bias? A.J. Preller made some great deals for his club this trade season, and MLB is now finally figuring it out. The Marlins GM Mike Hill & owner Jeffrey Loria are children who fail to practice due diligence, and it has cost their organization dearly. This is neither A.J. Preller’s, nor the San Diego Padres’ fault; as they were given complete access to all medical records on Colin Rea. Always consider the source, which is likely Loria here.

Colin Rea_Marlins

In other Padres news…

Matt Kemp

A.J. Preller handles Braves dirty laundry 7-30-16

RF Matt Kemp dumped to ATL w/ $10.5M, for Cuban OF Hector Olivera, whose $28M/4 years they eat by DFA-ing him, due to a pending misdemeanour assault charge.  Padres are eating $40M to move Matt Kemp to ATL, so they can start winning in 2017.  This proves a first-rate organization, and Padres fans should be ecstatic, as they now have brains & ownership working together.

Derek-Norris-C

Most teams approach the trade deadline, Preller attacked it; as he held his best trade option (RHP Andrew Cashner) hostage, until he was ready to deal him on the best terms possible, at the best time possible.  He came at his opposition (all other 29 GM’s) from every angle using: salary dumps (BJ Upton & Matt Kemp) to clog the market for OF sluggers (ex: Jay Bruce blocked, and the Reds got very little for him), while unloading his biggest contract (Kemp $40M), just after trading the top available starting pitcher (Cashner) at ace value.

He tried his best to block C Jonathan Lucroy to Texas with Derek Norris, or at least soften the market. A deal in place with him to CLE was vetoed by Lucroy at the 11th hour, a savior move for the MIL franchise.  Their foolish GM David Stearns was about to give away the best position player of the trade season for scraps, because he couldn’t handle the pressure.  His emotions must have rose early, in the excitement of finally consummating a deal; then the deflation from the overwhelmingly negative feedback– now realizing he’s made a huge mistake–> only to be rescued by Lucroy vetoing the deal at the finish line. Joy was temporarily restored to Mudville.  It just seemed like a lot of work & stress, for NOT trading a player.

Update 8-3-16: Brewers GM David Stearns was rescued again, when Texas approached MIL again on late 7/31, serious about making a deal.  MIL ended up getting a much better prospect package with TEX, as compared to the CLE deal for Lucroy.  He saved his GM twice.

The best news for Friars fans: outside of LHP Drew Pomeranz to BOS, Preller dealt junk.  GM’s and analysts kept trying to wrap their heads around his latest trade & determine what it meant in the market, meanwhile A. J. Preller completely rebuilt his team on-the-fly, gathering top prospects & keeping his best players.

There are two seasons going on in MLB; the one they play on the field from March – October, and the one that goes on year round– which really determines who wins & loses. Padres under A.J Preller & manager Andy Green have revolutionized the game, with their innovative approach to the International draft and now their trade deadline dominance.  MLB GM’s are now turning their heads, and the industry will notice.

Padres owner Ron Fowler is the benevolent owner who burns to win, and now fully trusts his GM, and hopefully, there will be no more meddling. This is the best type of MLB-owner that can be hoped for under capitalism.
COO Mike Dee is #2.
GM A.J. Preller is the deadliest of vipers.
First-year manager Andy Green is the Padres squeaky-clean front-man to the media, and already one of the games top skippers.

Padres’ HR streak comes to a halt in loss 7-30-16
The 2016 Padres are an incredible & most unlikely team to share the NL consecutive-game HR mark. They did it while trading away half their team for prospects, which is quite remarkable if you consider it.  Real Padres supporters thank them for giving fans something to cheer about on the field.

Final Analysis & Thoughts 7-31-16

Padres sunk costs (2016-17): Jedd Gyorko ($7M), BJ Upton ($17M), Matt Kemp (~$40M), Andrew Cashner ($2M), James Shields ($20M)– if he doesn’t opt out after this season.

Kemp Contract

Food for thought: there is a strong possibility that Matt Kemp was forced upon newly-minted GM A.J. Preller in 2014 by ownership as he arrived.  Call it an organizational rumor. It makes sense, if you consider that Preller is probably much too smart to get sucked into a deal like Matt Kemp’s contract.  For that, fans misjudged him as incompetent at first, simply because they didn’t (and couldn’t) know the circumstances.

Whoever was truly responsible for the albatross, it was surely the worst deal in Preller’s name, and he’s over it in less than 2 years, which shows what a brilliant magician he is.  Padres fans are excited that ownership can handle it.  It’s his creativity & decisiveness in action that currently make him the best GM in MLB.  Since last season ended, he has lapped the field, and written a new playbook on baseball front office management. Padres had a top-5 Amateur draft in June, and top-2 International draft in July, and dominated this trade season. Pretty impressive for a first-time GM in his second year.

Preller in Miami

I project the Padres to finish 2016 at 70-92, which coincides with their current winning percentage. They will likely finish 4th, in front of ARZ who are a complete disaster– sunk by bad trades & the Zack Grienke contract.  In 2017 the Padres will easily overtake COL who are perennially in a holding pattern, and challenge the troubled LA Dodgers for second in the division. Giants still project to be superior in the NL West.

>>>>—————–//—————>

Marlins GM’s Mike Hill wasn’t ready for this kind of assault from Preller. He got fleeced and cost his promising team their season, and possibly its future.  He deserves to be fired, along with a few other GM’s.

Toronto Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins deserves special mention, for driving the hardest consummated bargain on Preller. BJ Upton was probably the most difficult deal AJP had to swallow, because he was being short-changed on actual value, and the Jays had a huge need in CF. Preller ate $17M out of $23M owed, to dump him & gauge the market which was part of his greater purpose.
White Sox got middled on RHP James Shields, and now have a huge headache with his performance and possible opt-out situation. Preller doesn’t have any time for this, he’s busy building a Padres championship roster.
The Padres turnover is complete, and it’s now time for the ‘baby Pads’ which will feature more plate selectivity, higher OBP, and more SLG– up & down the lineup. Padres will play solid defense, while being aggressively smart on the bases. Preller’s Padres will feature hard throwers from both sides, in the rotation and bullpen. Have you noticed how many pitchers Preller has acquired recently? That’s what carries the most trade value, as we have seen. Systems are surely being put in place for improved injury prevention & rehabilitation.

Preller dumped Upton & Kemp on the market, just as opposing GM’s were hoping to move their own contracts, and start rebuilding with a nice prospect packages. Outfielders Jay Bruce (CIN), Carlos Beltran (NYY), Josh Reddick (OAK) all moved, but didn’t net as much in return as they should have. For example: Reddick had to be packaged with starting pitcher Rich Hill to maximize the return from the LAD.

Notes on Social Media & MLB

Up to half the 30 MLB teams may have been heavily relying on social media monitoring, as a form of ‘advanced scouting’ during this trade season. All teams use this to some degree. Raw fan data is valuable to an organization that listens, and all have access to it. Note that much of this ‘data’ can be manipulated and/or comprised in some essential way, if safeguards aren’t in place. This renders the ‘data’ useless, or possibly worse– vulnerable to a well-laid trap. The thesis here is: far too many unsuspecting organizations relied on social media monitoring far too much this trade deadline, and a few possibly got fleeced for it. Some were rendered impotent and bewildered by a rogue GM, who broke many long-standing rules of the trade deadline.

Bottom-tier front offices can easily be misled by online opinion leaders, whom influence what the majority believe & think. I played my part, by becoming becoming a most-respected commentator in the MLB.com forum in less than a year of activity. This MLB forum is shared by thousands daily, and influences organizational & media opinions by the minute.  That’s serious clout.

I began this task by energizing a demoralized Padres faithful, online only, at the end of their miserable 2015 campaign. I engaged ~20-or-so active posters in the Padres.com forum, and won their confidence & trust, by telling them the truth. I demanded accountability in return. The message unconsciously became: we’re now all in this together, it’s a team mission which includes everybody, and failure is not an option.

Now to stay focused & consistent, improving our understanding of what AJP was doing, because no one had ever seen a GM like this before.  Example: Four Rule 5 draft picks last December; one was RHP Luis Perdomo, who now projects as a top-of-the-rotation starter. Preller managed to retain another Rule 5 selection, OF Jabari Blash, by making a deal with the Mariners after the Padres could no longer afford to keep him on their 25-man roster. He was then optioned to AAA-El Paso, where he raked, and he’s now replaced Matt Kemp in RF. Jabari Blash is 27 and a long-shot at best, but the point is the process, which is a winning one of rewarding hard work with a deserved opportunity.

I patiently explained setbacks so understanding was quicker, and lessons were deeply absorbed, so everybody could now begin to find their own voice. After awhile, I mostly let the discussions run themselves, because I always knew another forum leader was watching & correcting as needed. I still check daily or so, and if there was something grossly off-track, I still patiently point out mistakes and reveal unseen facets, which empower others. Mostly, I speak with the ‘Like’ button for top comments. Do it that way, and everything flows towards success & love.

I discovered the tremendous power I wield, becoming a dominant commenter in MLB.com fan forum discussions. Everyone respected me instantly, and I was virtually impossible to dismiss, as long as I was polite & respectful. Yankees, Red Sox & Dodgers forums can be intimidating to comment in (as an opponent). I now can consistently drop in on them, make whatever point I need to make (however I need to make it), and then leave with grace & dignity. Sometimes I go back to check, sometimes not.  Note: mistakes must always be corrected, as someone always notices and remembers.

At this trade deadline, Padres faithful were a mobilized & alert fighting unit. Not everyone exactly on the same page, but more than enough understood the mission– dump contracts & get top prospects.  I live in Florida, and most of the Padres games are late with 10:40 PM EDT starts. I rely on Padres comrades to update me on any latest breaking Padres news. Breaking West coast news sometimes takes an hour or two to travel back east. That keeps me playing from behind at times, and that’s not where you want to be with AJP– in anything.

About 8-10 hardcore Padres fans have been nothing short of invaluable during my self-imposed assignment, as my ‘eyes & ears’ of the San Diego Padres social media world.  These fans actually go to the games, or at least watch most of them on TV, supplying first-hand accounts of the games, with their impressions.  Many live in San Diego, and share all the local buzz.  Minor league reports are now shared & discussed in depth, regularly.

Conversely, I’ve only seen ~ a dozen games this season. I’ve followed more games on MLB Gameday, and it’s a unique view with scouting value, but it’s limited.  Padres fans now share everything they know openly, in a dedicated & monitored forum.  This forum is not nearly as vulnerable to outside attacks (other team’s fans), as the Padres fan core is now more knowledgeable & resolute.

For example: I fell asleep bewildered on the mentioned BJ Upton to TOR deal (7-26-16). Next morning I entered the fan forum, and joined a lively discussion with everyone (50+ at least) focusing on their reasons as to why AJP made that crazy deal? It didn’t make any sense, with what everyone knew. There’s something we don’t know?  Sometimes it’s such a simple answer, you don’t consider it.  Leadership, serious purpose, and everyone invested, is what got me what I needed to know in less than an hour.

Upton to TOR was Preller finding out how much the Padres were going to have to eat in order to move Matt Kemp.  After the Upton deal, I had estimated $40-45M in the forum, and published an analysis write-up, linked at the bottom.  Preller got the best deal he could on the Matt Kemp dump, as he learned the absolute market limits from the Upton deal a few days earlier.

When I figured this out, I immediately dispatched my distillation back into the forum. Now most understand & accept the official Padres line, which is hidden to most. That does make a GM’s job easier. How much? I can’t say, but it is significant, and deserves more study.

The point is, the Padres instantly have 50+ loyalists spreading the word, strengthening the Padres ‘social media trending’ line. Trust me: it’s monitored & manipulated, because it matters; and Preller got all the help he needed (and more), from an energized online fanbase this time around. Opposition fans and data harvesters invade all team’s forums. No longer are they allowed to piss all over the Padres forum, without censure and repercussions. Yankees & Red Sox fans NEVER allow it, why should the Padres?

Final Update 8-4-17: One last serious organization improvement that deserves mention is the addition of Padres beat writer A.J. Cassavell, who replaced Corey Brock during Spring Training.  Cassavell’s reporting is more frequent, and has much more thought & depth than his predecessor. That has really helped improve fan dialogue in their forum.

Padres are officially no longer chumps. AJP just revolutionized MLB, much like in Michael Lewis’ sketch of Oakland A’s GM Billie Beane– Moneyball (2003).  I have no material proof concerning any of what I have just claimed, other than the content of this piece, which was updated in real-time during the weekend carnage, then finally updated on 8-4-16.  It’s accuracy, as related to what actually happened, speaks for itself.

By Monday 8/1 Preller was reclaiming his 26-YO starting pitcher, for a 23-YO A-ball pitching prospect, which satisfied the opposing GM in the deal. This was complete dominance for Preller over many weaker GM’s, who didn’t understand this market and how AJP controlled it up until the next-to-last day.  It takes planning & guts to eat $60M in salary, but what truly upped their value was the timing.  When played at precisely the correct moment, dumps will also block other teams from getting what they need for similar-type players.

Matt Kemp to ATL was brilliantly timed in the evening of 7/30, as it depressed the OF market just as selling teams had to make a deal.  For example: Reds GM Walt Jocketty didn’t have a clue on the market for Jay Bruce, and probably should have kept him, instead of getting reamed by the Mets GM Sandy Alderson.  Jocketty also desperately & unsuccessfully tried to trade SS Zack Cozart to the Mariners, but the return was too little even for him.

When it was all over, too many GM’s had enough of Preller’s antics, and no one made a deal for the two most valuable commodities remaining on the market: lefty relievers Ryan Buchter & Brad Hand, both effective and team-controllable for years to come.  Preller’s price was too high, so he held on to them, which is what smart GM’s do.  When the trade season was all over, about 6-8 buying teams (BOS, TEX, CLE, SFG, WAS, NYM, CHC) got what they needed; a few others didn’t (MIA, CWS, BAL); and too many sellers got short-changed,  One GM was ready for more, but it was all over– just as planned.  [2]

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The bizarreness of this trade deadline is wrapped up in it’s final deal, Rays sent LHP Matt Moore to SFG for 3B Matt Duffy and 2 iffy prospects. Rays GM Matt Silverman was interviewed before the Rays/Royals game that evening (8/1/16), saying they finished the deal with <10 seconds to go. He should have hung up on the Giants with 20 to go.

The deal wasn’t announced by MLB until ~6:00 PM EDT, nearly two hours after the deadline expired, so therefore Matt Moore (a TJ reclamation with ace stuff), and 3 years of affordable team controllability remaining, is suddenly moved for comparatively less than Pomeranz or Cashner.

Moore (whose velocity & spin-rate are now returning) was the most valuable pitcher who moved in this year’s market, where pitching was they most desperately sought-after commodity. Moore was dealt (squandered) in a last-second rush, by a GM who understands nothing about winning baseball or player value. Silverman is the same GM who dealt Wil Myers for Steven Souza, Jr.– with the Gnats being the intermediary.

Padres Cash Out

Padres, Fish swing 7-player deal featuring Cashner  7-29-16

Andrew Cashner_2

Andrew Cashner pitched for 7 seasons in SD: 3.73 ERA, 30-49 W/L, 673.2 IP. He was pretty good when healthy, which wasn’t often enough, but his teams were mostly poor. Cashner has the stuff to dominate, but too often loses focus and allows the big inning. He has to handle this better to reach ceiling as a #3 starter on a good team.

It looks like a pretty good haul for the Padres RHPs Andrew Cashner, Colin Rea and a fringy prospect.  GM A.J. Preller had plenty to sift through, and he likely got the best deal for the Padres. RHP Jarred Cosart (age 26) is a project, with some potential. Rea had #4 starter written all over him. Injured closer Carter Capps too. Wow!

RHP Jarred Cosart was drafted in the 38th round by the Phillies in 2008, coincidentally their WS championship year. He shot through their system, and became the main piece of the RF Hunter Pence deal that sent Cosart to HOU in 2011. The deal was another bust for the Astros, and old-school GM Ed Wade was finally fired by new ownership after Drayton McLane, Jr sold out that winter. Cosart’s best year was 2014, he was age 24; 13-11 W/L, 3.68 ERA, 180.1 IP with HOU the MIA. He was dealt at the 7/31 deadline to the Marlins in a low-level 7-player deal that amounted to little. His issue has always been walks, and lack of punchouts. What scouts love is his low HR/9 rate and his projectable Texan frame. He seems to start well with an organization, then gets sidetracked. Jarred Cosart has <20 IP this year, so he’s fresh if he’s not hurt, which he may be. A.J. Preller has nothing to lose, so let Darren Balsley & Andy Green go to work on him. He’s a project, for sure.

AJ Preller: Padres GM

Last deadline it was David Price, Cole Hamels & Johnny Cueto available, so Preller hung onto Cashner. Patience & vision; supply & demand. I tip my hat to this organization, this rebuild has been beautifully planned & executed.

[Update 7-30-16]  GM Mike Hill and a few others in the Marlins front office must have been enamoured with RHP Colin Rea. In his interview during the MIA/STL game last night, Hill expressed his adamants that Rea is a big piece of this deal.  That’s how Preller got Jarred Cosart & Carter Capps thrown in, on top of two of their best prospects for Cashner.  Rea can probably pitch ~30-40 more innings in 2016, before he has to be shut down, which won’t help the Marlins down the stretch.  Besides that, he’s meat: 4.98 ERA, 99.1 IP, 1.46 WHIP.

The BJ Upton deal to TOR indicates the market for OF’s.  Josh Reddick (A’s) and Jay Bruce (Reds) should be retained by their teams, for what OF’s are going for. The service time and QO compensation are more valuable. My $.02

Ryan Buchter

Age-29 LOOGY Ryan Buchter 2-0, 2.93 ERA, 46 IP is probably all A.J. Preller has left for this deadline. Possibly CF Jon Jay?  We’ll see how the Federalist responds to having his wrist cast removed in a day or two… Preller likely keeps C Derek Norris because he’s cheap & valuable, just having a tough season, and therefore undervalued. RF Matt Kemp is untradeable.

Jon Jay_Federalist

Jon Jay is a decent CF and left-handed bat: .296/.345/.407. His strange 2016 batting splits: vs RHP: .275/.312/.397; and vs LHP: .346/.418/.432; indicate his value is on the short side of the platoon.  Some teams are hovering around replacement level in CF, and the Federalist (if healthy) is an upgrade.  Otherwise he’s a 4th outfielder on a championship-level team. Much depends on his recovery, and if teams are willing to wait a few more weeks.  He may be considered as a one-month rental, on a team with solid post-season expectations.  He’s owed ~$2M remaining on his last arbitration deal, and is not a player A.J. Preller can QO, because he’ll accept it and he’s not worth $17M/year. Jay would probably have been traded already, if he hadn’t gotten drilled in the wrist by Gio Gonzalez.

Espinoza (No. 21) leads three Padres prospects in Top 100
San Diego also lands Margot (No. 36), Renfroe (No. 52) on midseason list 7-28-16

The Padres owe Matt Kemp $18.25M/year for 2017-19. They’ve paid $21.5M for his first two seasons in San Diego, which is reasonable. What’s unreasonable is what A.J. Preller would have to do to deal Kemp, which is eat $40-45M (of the $54.75M owed). That’s ridiculous, but it’s what he learned in the BJ Upton deal. Therefore, Preller traded BJ Upton at a loss, because he couldn’t have both on his roster anymore, and BJ’s contract hurts less. Another year (or two) needs to expire off Kemp’s contract before he’s tradeable, so the Padres have to find a way to make the best use of him. His biggest assets are his power & durability, as he plays everyday and slugs well enough. Kemp will be age 32 in September, and lesser players start to breakdown at his age, but he’s tapered fairly well and that’s a credit to him & the Padres.

Matt Kemp RF Padres

Kemp’s biggest issue is his lack of range on defense & low OBP, which needs to be remedied by moving him down in the lineup, as fresh talent displaces him. When Matt Kemp is hitting 6th or 7th (like he should be on a championship team), then the Padres will have a formidable lineup. After the trade deadline, look for: CF (L) Jankowski, 3B (S) Solarte, 1B (R) Myers, LF (L) Dickerson, RF (R) Kemp, 2B (L) Schimpf, C (R) Hedges, SS (R) Ramirez, pitcher’s spot. Better OBP at the top, with good SLG at the bottom of the order– except for Alexei Ramirez.
Next spring the rotation lines up as: Tyson Ross, Luis Perdomo, Cal Quantrill (?), Colin Rea [about to be traded], and a large 5th-starter mix. Note that Ross will be rested, rehabilitated, and in his contract year.

Cashner & Shields

A.J. Preller has really owned this trade deadline, and he now holds the next big piece– RHP Andrew Cashner. Every contender would like to upgrade their rotation with a rental arm, and Cashner is coveted by the Giants, Rangers, Marlins, Orioles & Red Sox. Preller is holding out for the best package of what’s left of available prospects. Also, by taking his time, he’s running out the clock somewhat and putting pressure on other teams trying to make deals. Padres fans like that. Preller will also use that leverage, especially after how he was squeezed in the BJ Upton deal.

Fernando Rodney: Closer for Sale

Preller got in first with Fernando Rodney & Drew Pomeranz, and it’s a lesson in being first to market. Pomeranz was the plum starter available, and Preller got top value in return. Rodney isn’t nearly as good as Aroldis Chapman, but Padres still did very well with the Marlins because Preller dealt him early.

[Update 7-30-16]:  Fernando Rodney since being traded to the Marlins: 1-2 W/L, 4.15 ERA, 13 IP. >>>——–//————> He was legendary for the Padres for half a season. Bad deal for both teams so far as RHP Chris Paddack, the 20-year old prospect sent in return, now needs Tommy John surgery. At least Paddack and the Padres have time on their side.

C Derek Norris has had a tough season at the plate, having to work way too hard defensively, with all the injuries & trades to the Padres pitching staff. When Cashner is traded, 3/5 of the rotation (w/ Pomeranz & Shields) will have been traded, with their #1 starter Tyson Ross on the DL for the season. [With Colin Rea also to the Marlins, 4/5 of the Padres rotation was traded in 2016] .  That takes a tremendous toll on the primary catcher, and Norris often looks tired because he surely is. Backup C Christian Bethancourt has a lively bat, but poor receivership skills, and catcher is too important defensively. Keep Norris and bring up Austin Hedges to start the majority of what’s left of 2016. Send Bethancourt to winter ball, where he must dramatically improve his defensive skills, or else find another position or team.

C Derek Norris

It’s really interesting to hear the CWS are now trying to trade James Shields, who is suddenly pitching really well. Last start against the Cubs was W, 7.2 IP, 0 R, and he’s keeping the ball down in the zone much better, with livelier movement. He just needed to be on a competitive team, which the Padres weren’t. Whether the Sox can trade him or not, there’s a significant chance he will exercise his opt-out at season’s end. It’s a very weak pitcher’s free-agent market this coming off-season, and the White Sox FO are definitely concerned that Shields may only be a rental, and if that’s true, they overpaid and are try to make it up since they’re basically out of contention now. That’s a crazy organization to play for, and Shields may opt-out just to get away. It also depends on performance, so it’s definitely not decided, we’ll see…

James Shields_White Sox

Padres go for NL home run record

San Diego has homered in 25 straight games, two shy of Major League mark 7-28-16

Padres are going home for a series with the Reds who have a team ERA of 5.31. With those stats, a fan would expect the Padres to break the record, but it would be just like baseball (and this Padres season in particular), if it didn’t happen. Note that lots of bad pitching everywhere makes this kind of streak more & more possible. This one started 7-1 against the Yankees, and the Padres are 11-14 during, indicative of their own pitching woes. [Update 7-30-16: Padres shut out by CIN 6-0 last night, team HR streak ends at 25]

Left-handed power is always an asset, and new additions 2B Ryan Schimpf & LF Alex Dickerson have delivered it, giving Andy Green contributions up & down his lineup. Padres weren’t getting anything close to this early on. Nice improvement offensively, and it’s a great sign for this organization, which has had a history of being punchless.

LF_Alex Dickerson

Power pitching is in the minors, so fans remain patiently optimistic. After the trade deadline, the rotation will be Colorado Rockies-bad, with RHP Luis Perdomo (Rule 5 from STL) leading the staff. Higher injury-risk for pitchers, means an organization has to develop plenty of arms to remain competitive, due to attrition. The summer drafts and deadline trades have helped fill all levels with high-upside arms. The 2017 season will likely be the first year of relative stability under A.J. Preller, as he now has a team & system he mostly likes. Everything began with the Wil Myers deal.

Padres storm past Nats with late surge  7-24-16

Really nice win for the Padres! They win the season series 4-3, from a good team. Nice bullpen work, and great AB’s up & down the lineup. Honestly, I don’t understand Dusty Baker NOT using Bryce Harper in a game situation in the 8th, then substituting him for Papelbon in the 9th, down 10-6. Either give your star the day off, or PH him in the correct situation.

Tyson-Ross-RHP

Ankle keeping recovering Ross off mound 7-23-16
No point in bringing RHP Tyson Ross back this year. Padres are long out of contention and can’t trade him for fair value now. It will be mid-August at the soonest for any 2016 return.  Many bad things can happen, with little reward for the Padres. The priority is getting Ross right for 2017, as the Padres will need him to front a very young rotation. Shoulder injuries are the career-enders (vs. elbows), so a pitcher can’t take too long in coming back. Err on the side of caution, play it smart, and see the big picture.

Schimpf’s moonshot sends SD’s HR streak to 21 games 7-24-16
Ryan Schimpf’s line in 101 PA’s is .229/.356/.614, which is amazing. It’s the walks that make him playable, with the left-handed power skyrocketing his value. He’s 28, so he won’t get too much better, but what he’s shown (in a small sample size) is extremely valuable.

2B Ryan Schimpf

This is a great example of how A.J Preller covered himself at 2B, where the projected starter was Cory Spangenberg. Spangenberg performed poorly early, then injured himself and has been unable to recover. Preller anticipated this possibility and added Jemile Weeks, Jose Pirella, Adam Rosales and Ryan Schimpf– all on minor league contracts during the off-season. Everyone received a shot at one point or another, and fifth-in-line Ryan Schimpf has made the most of it. Preller found yet another (low cost) way to add a winning player to his team; on top of trades, the Rule 5, Amateur & International drafts. An improved coaching staff (remember he cleared out the system when he fired Pat Murphy & the rest of the deadwood after 2015), with an outstanding new manager Andy Green, also makes a huge difference in player development success.

I rate the best managers in baseball in the AL: Terry Francona CLE, Ned Yost KCR; and in the NL: Bruce Bochy SFG, Joe Maddon CHC, Mike Matheny STL, and Andy Green. Managers are more important in the NL, with the pitcher’s hitting, bullpen use, double switching, etc… Note that catcher’s tend to make very good managers, as the have to know all sides of the game.

If BJ Upton is moved to the AL East, it’s Toronto. They’re trying to win it all, and their current CF situation is Kevin Pillar, age 27; hitting .261/.290/.385 in 2016.

BJ Upton_2

The Braves him use his “government name” when he signed as a FA from the Rays. BJ is a handle. He also made the best double play I ever saw a few weeks ago off J.J. Hardy’s bat: 8-3 to nail Mark Trumbo who was trying to make sure he scores on an extra base hit, on a ball hit over the fence to the left of dead center in Petco. Unbelievable

AL East clubs discussing deals for Upton, Cashner
BJ to the O’s doesn’t make sense, as he’s basically the same player as CF Adam Jones. RHP Andrew Cashner makes more sense with their needs. Padres have no need for RHP Ubaldo Jimenez. It seems there needs to be a third team involved to get the prospects A.J. Preller needs in return, as the O’s system is pretty bare. We’ll see…

The 8/1 deadline is it for the 2016 Padres season, fans. Once these veterans are dealt, it’s full rebuild mode. Padres September call-ups will be interesting for a change. It’s been a beautiful transformation to behold. This planned window of competitiveness is cause for optimism, and has rarely (if ever) existed in franchise history.

Padres sign Cuban outfielder Jorge Ona  7-20-16
This caps it for the Padres in the International Draft, and they pretty much stole the show. Padres now have a much-improved farm system, and still have young controllable talent at the MLB level (Myers, Solarte), putting them far ahead of the Braves, Brewers, etc… in rebuilding. A.J. Preller still has a few assets to deal, whenever an agreeable offer presents itself. So far it’s been an astounding transformation for this organization, with Preller now on the job almost 2 years in San Diego.

Padres could use a good start from Andrew Cashner tonight against Adam Wainwright & the Cardinals, as it would make dealing him much easier. It would also help if the lineup scored some runs to support him.

Edwin Jackson_Enigma

Jackson flirts with no-no as Padres sweep Giants 7-17-16
That 12-pitch walk by Alex Dickerson in the 6th was huge, as it really drained Johnny Cueto. It helps to have some OBP at the bottom of the lineup with him & 2B Ryan Schimpf. Christian Bethancourt’s bat helps too, but his defense (passed balls & framing) is really poor, and that’s why he doesn’t play more. Nice sweep Padres. They needed it, as their schedule gets rough for the next 6 weeks.

Padres tab Jackson to start finale vs. Giants 7-17-16
RHP Edwin Jackson is here to eat up innings at low cost. Padres just traded Drew Pomeranz for the future, and the remaining current options are him and RHP Paul Clemens. Paul is not Roger, and he needs some more work, if there is any upside (though not likely) to be tapped. Therefore it becomes the enigma/riddle: Edwin Jackson. For perspective: GM Andrew Friedman traded him as a Devil Ray, to Detroit for RF Matt Joyce, and it helped Joe Maddon a lot. Padres first series sweep of 2016 is not likely today. [Padres won]

Padres deal Pomeranz to Red Sox 7-14-17
2B Cory Spangenberg was GM Jed Hoyer’s #1 pick (10th overall) in 2011– his last draft with the Padres before he left for the Cubs GM that October. This season Spangenberg is age 25, and ‘hit’ .229/.302/.354 in 14 games, before tearing his quadriceps while sliding into first base. He’s now re-injured himself twice in rehabilitation to end his season, after an initial 6-8 week recovery diagnosis. He has shown neither the talent, nor the brains to be a winning player. If Preller can keep him on the 40-man roster, then ST 2017 is his last shot with the Padres.

2B Prospect_Cory Spangenberg

Padres win stunner in 10th on walk-off balk 7-17-17
For a team that’s out of contention and in the process of trading away most of their assets, the Padres are making a good showing of themselves. This is largely a credit to manager Andy Green, who won’t let his team give up, despite their current hopeless situation. Remember, this team has been ravished with injuries. Showing resolve and finishing strong are winning qualities that will carry through to the future, when the Padres have more talent.

Green & Preller

This could have easily been a 100-loss season, and it’s now clear it won’t be (even with the salary dumps), and that’s actually a huge step forward for SD. The Padres are rebuilding without becoming an embarrassment to their fans. This maintains precious hope & optimism among the fanbase. It’s been a tough 2016 season for the Padres, but it’s also been a success for GM A.J. Preller with his turnover & acquisition of organizational talent. A competitive window will open in their future, in about 2-3 years.

Padres break through for victory over Giants 7-16-16
Andrew Cashner’s next 2-3 starts are worth a lot of money, to a lot of people. If Cashner throws well with no injury setbacks, he’s in line to be traded to a contender, with a shot at a huge payday if he succeeds. If he blows up, then Preller has to consider QO options on him, which he’d rather not. Padres have done everything possible to get him healthy and showcase him. It now falls on him to perform, as Preller can’t trade junk.

Padres place Upton on bereavement list 7-15-16
Bereavement leave is a player’s right, earned through solidarity & the collective bargaining process. MLB players didn’t have this before Marvin Miller became their MLBPA representative.  Best to BJ & his family

Yangervais Solarte_3B

Offense falls flat following Solarte’s early blast 7-10-16
Pitchers who throw ground balls are huge, as they give up less extra-base hits and home runs than fly-ball pitchers. Also, with a solid defense they are always one pitch away from a double play. The stuff is there for power sinker-baller Luis Perdomo, he just needs more experience & polish, which he’s getting under Green & Balsley. This has been a developmental season for him and the Padres in general, and there is noticeable progress.

Pomeranz, Marte, Bruce added to NL squad 7-9-16
LHP Drew Pomeranz is fair, for the Padres trading Rodney, who makes it as a Marlin, on his merits as a Padre.

Pomeranz leads Padres’ two-hit shutout in LA 7-8-16
Nice win for the Padres to climb out of last, after the Dodgers put them there to start. Drew Pomeranz is definitely for real, and it doesn’t matter about the All-Star situation. Kershaw obviously was the choice, and keeping him healthy is primary for the Dodgers. He’s 28 and has carried too much of the load for too long. He may need to be DL’ed the remainder of the season with his herniated disc in his back, depending on the severity and his rehabilitation. If necessary, the Dodgers must do it and deal with it. They owe Kershaw $35M/season through 2020.

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Friar Wired: Around the Horn

Myers named All-Star Week ambassador
First baseman eager to represent Padres, MLB during festivities in San Diego 6-17-16
Fangraphs has a new article titled, “Wil Myers Utilizing All Fields in Return to Prominence.”  Of course they say the Padres should trade him, like everyone else. They’ve been wrong all along, but NOW they know…

Wil Myers 1B

Padres, Edwin Jackson agree to Minor League deal
San Diego seeks depth for depleted pitching staff 6-17-16
“There was a point in mid-March when projections had San Diego’s starting five as: Ross, Shields, Cashner, Erlin & Maurer.” Maurer is in the bullpen, Shields traded, and the rest are DL’d.  Padres are desperate, so this is what a GM does.
No way they trade Wil Myers, he’s their cornerstone.

Jon Jay for Jedd Gyorko (STL) was a great swap for the Padres, even with them eating $7M this year.  I hope the Padres extend him a few years.  Alexei Ramirez was a nice low-cost pick-up, instead of the overpay on Ian Desmond who couldn’t play SS anyways. A.J. Preller also snagged starting pitchers Drew Pomeranz, Luis Perdomo & Christian Friedrich this past off-season, which were all under-the-radar moves that have paid off and show future promise. He also restocked the farm system with the Craig Kimbrel trade, and set the Padres up a nice 2016 amateur draft.  Yes they are in last place this year, but they’re in better position than ARZ & COL for the future.

From the 2014-15 off-season, Wil Myers was a steal. Shields was an overpay, and costing them $20M to go away, but an understandable gamble at the time for rotation stability.  Preller did a great job unloading him before the bottom fell out, and we’ll see about RHP Erik Johnson & prospect Fernando Tatis, Jr.  Matt Kemp was Preller’s worst deal, but it is still better than a lot of other GM’s biggest blunders.  Overall Preller has done a fantastic job rebuilding an organization that was in shambles when he arrived.

Erik Johnson aims to impress in home debut 6-16-16
The Nationals are the last top NL team the Padres have yet to face. It’s another good test for this team, and die-hards hope it doesn’t get ugly. Luckily for the Padres, Stephen Strasburg pitched yesterday. Hopefully fans will get a good look at RHP Joe Ross, to get some measure on the Wil Myers deal. The other piece of that deal from the Padres system was (soon-to-be) age 23 SS Trea Turner, who was up briefly for 3B Ryan Zimmerman on paternity leave, but is now back in AAA Syracuse hitting .293/.357/.439.

Billy Joel at Petco in May 2016

MLB announces All-Star Concert Series lineup 6-16-16
Gwen Stefani, OneRepublic, Tori Kelly headline acts set to perform 6-16-16
Did anyone here see ‘piano man’ Billy Joel @ Petco?   Just wondering since they advertised it all off-season. [1]

Perdomo stays grounded, gets first win as starter 6-16-16
Like AJ Preller said, with Perdomo’s stuff he would be a top 10 draft pick, if that was his availability. Gotta stick with him, too much upside. Snagging Luis Perdomo from STL is hopefully going to make up for trading away Ozzie all those years ago.  That’s been A.J. Preller’s plan since the Rule 5 draft.  Perdomo’s 22, sits at 95-96, and gets to 98 w/ tons of ground balls. Electric stuff here.

Luis Perdomo

Padres best Rule 5 success was surely 2B Bip Roberts taken by the Padres from PIT in the Rule 5 draft in December 1985. At the plate OBP is life and making outs is bad. Bip Roberts (.294/.358/.380) was a super-utility player, and one of the most underrated players in franchise history.

Bip Roberts card

After 1991, GM Joe McIlvaine traded him to the Reds for lefty closer Randy Myers. Note, any deals during this period in Padres history must be understood in the context of Tom Werner ownership, which ran from June 1990 to December 1994. Roberts had injury issues in SD, so of course he tore himself up playing on the notoriously hard turf (and unpadded outfield walls) of Riverfront Stadium. Along with CF Eric Davis, (HoF) SS Barry Larkin, and others, Bip Roberts could never really stay healthy playing for the Reds.

Marge Schott

Marge Schott owned the Cincinnati Reds from her inheritance in 1984 to 1999. Schott was hailed by luminaries such as Oprah Winfrey as a model of ‘feminist success’ after the Reds won the World Series in 1990. She was later suspended by MLB (1996-98) then forced to sell-out, due to her statements in support of Nazi party leader Adolf Hitler.

Padres string together rally to sink Fish in finale 6-15-16

Ichiro

Ichiro is an amazing & unique player. Notice how well he takes care of himself. It makes all the difference.
RHP Luis Perdomo is now 2-2, and hitting .250 (1 for 4). He pinch runs and has a stolen base.  Reminds me a bit of Fletch with the Lakers– he does all the little things they need. I don’t know where the Padres would be without him?  An All-Star in my book, admittedly his current ERA (8.79) is a little high…

Fletch Dreams

Shields, Sox optimistic rough debut just a blip 6-9-16
Padres fan here: for those CWS fans who didn’t know, James Shields is cooked. If Reinsdorf, Hahn or Williams are interested in another bat, Matt Kemp is available– please contact Padres GM A.J. Preller ASAP.

Alexei Ramirez SS

BTW, Padres fans have developed much appreciation for Alexei Ramirez. For a long time, the Padres have been replacement level at SS, and while the Cuban Missile has very little pop in his bat and doesn’t walk much, he hits just enough & is super-slick with a great arm in the field. He’s improved the Padres defense tremendously, and therefore helps their pitching staff. The Padres mostly can’t score runs, and have been shutout 10 times already this season. It was a situation where the CWS wanted to move in a different direction at that position, and it worked out for another team. Wondering what White Sox fans think of Tyler Saladino & SS prospect Tim Anderson?  Best of luck with Jimmy Rollins!!

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Green: Padres deserving of ASG consideration 6-8-16
I don’t believe rookies should ever be All-Stars, as anyone can get hot for a few months & fool people. I think LHP Drew Pomeranz is for real, but this excludes him from consideration by my criteria.  Closer Fernando Rodney may be the only Padres 2016 All-Star. CF Jon Jay is very underrated. 1B Wil Myers may be their franchise guy, but it’s a deep position.  When 3B Yangervais Solarte stays healthy, he’s All-Star level.  A few pieces are there, but many are still missing for the Padres.

Amateur draft begins tomorrow night, so keep these thoughts in mind. There are only 30 or so MLB players in every amateur draft, so if a team get one player that’s average. If they get two, that’s spectacular. Three or more in one draft is extraordinary. There are one or two HoFer’s per draft, and obviously those are the picks to make. They aren’t always 1st round either, as Albert Pujols & Mike Piazza prove. It’s about scouting and the ‘eye for talent.’ This draft is considered ‘college light & high-school heavy,’ so expect many HS picks. People who have no clue will yell & scream no matter what GM A.J. Preller does, but the truth is no one will know how anyone did for at least 3-4 years.

Terry Collins

The All-Star manager (Terry Collins- Mets) gets to pick his staff, and obviously he takes his own guys. It would be really cool if he also selected Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley. I witnessed Jim Hickey in TB for many years and he deserves all his accolades, but for my money Balsley is the best pitching coach in baseball today. Without him, Drew Pomeranz isn’t a phenom.  [Andy Green was later invited by Collins. Cool]

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Arch-Rivals: Dodgers @ Petco

Posted (mostly) on MLB.com

Melvin’s walk-off homer drops Dodgers   5-20-16
Padres needed this, thanks again BJ!  Good to see Andy Green getting creative with his lineup, as there needs to be a shake-up. Another good challenge from Green got a HBP for Alexi Amarista, notice he’s won a bunch of them so far. Eight walks (4 by Brett Wallace & 3 from Adam Rosales) helps the Padres lineup work the opposing pitchers. More please!

Padres step on LA with walk-off walk in 11th    5-21-16
Padres lineup strikes out 19 times, and they still mange to win. I love this team!  Notice, those walks do help. Get some OBP in the lineup and good things start to happen with their solid defense & stellar pitching.

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Padres fans consider the Dodgers to be their arch-rivals, due to LA’s proximity and winning tradition.  Dodgers fans mostly don’t consider Padres fans, as their franchise has never won it.  That’s just how it is.  SF Giants fans (the Padres ‘other arch-rivals’) are always listening in on the Dodgers broadcasts & forums, which is no problem with most Padres supporters as long as they are respectful and have something useful to add.

Matt Kemp CF

Umpire exits after being hit by foul tip   5-22-16
The next time these two ‘arch-rivals’ meet (which is just before the All-Star break), the Padres may no longer have RF Matt Kemp who is on the trading block. Dodgers fans remember what a great player he was, before injuries diminished him. Padres fans are grateful for his efforts, which have helped them win a few (but not enough) games. Matt Kemp hit for his first cycle last year, which was also the first in Padres franchise history. I’ve read may fans comments in this forum along the lines of, “that alone makes whatever he costs worth it.”  It’s hard to argue against that.

Matt Kemp RF

What absolutely needs to be understood is that Matt Kemp must DH (at least occasionally), or else he will wear down and quickly breakdown. There are probably 8-10 AL teams faking it at DH.  When Matt Kemp is rested occasionally, he can be a productive bat in a championship-level AL lineup. This upcoming deal will be about how much the Padres eat on his remaining contract, which runs through 2019. Padres owe Matt Kemp $18.25M/season, with the Dodgers paying $3M/season. Also remember that the Padres only paid $3.5M for Kemp in 2016, so GM A.J. Preller knows he’s eating something on the back end. It’s a question of how much, and what’s the return? Recall that Preller gave up C Yasmani Grandal to get him.  I don’t know who won this trade yet, and no one will until long after Matt Kemp is traded from the Padres to the AL.

Note: this excessive annual ‘punting’ on DH in the AL is the best argument against expanding it to the NL. The NL is the senior circuit, so they don’t adopt the junior league’s gimmicky rule.

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Beer & Brats: Padres Hot Stove Discussion

The San Diego Padres have a strong military fanbase, and I love reading soldiers’ comments online, which typically go something like this:

“I’m in the Marines, and this team is what we call FUBAR’d…, this is what’s wrong…., this is what needs to be done…. BOOYAH!!!”

Rarely are the merits of these posts criticized or debated, and the poster often disappears for awhile; all of which I find fascinating.

It’s a very open & democratic forum, and generally laid-back with Padres fans. It’s a relief from being a Rays fan, having to deal with all the Red Sox/Yankees hyper-competitiveness. Here’s what I had to say about the Pads in their MLB forum this fall:

10-29-15:  Padres name D-backs’ Green manager

Andy Green is energetic, has managerial experience in the minors, embraces sabermetirics, and is well-respected in the Diamondbacks organization.  The San Diego Padres need to rebuild, so I like this hire.  [posted on Facebook]

11-02-15:  Padres move quickly to bring back Balsley

I too am relieved that Darren Balsley is staying. I wasn’t sure he’d stay with this mess in SD, but this is his home.  It appears the Nationals are even worse off in their management situation with the Black/Baker fiasco.  Balsley will help rebuild this pitching staff– he’s the best as so many have already pointed out. The fan support in this forum surely helped.

11-13-15:  Kennedy, Upton reject qualifying offers

A.J. Preller wins another one for San Diego this week– every little bit helps. Kennedy isn’t worth more than $10/year; he & agent Scott Boras are banking on an overpay deal. We’ll see…

Deal Matt Kemp who had decent numbers in 2015, but needs to be in the AL where he can DH. Shields & BJ Upton are surely on the block too, but Kemp is the priority. So far, so good for Padres fans, the Kimbrel deal is the right idea.  Keep adding depth to the farm system, and work on player development; that’s how the Royals, Astros & Cubs did it. No one really knows how any of these prospects are going to pan out. Smart GM’s look for prospects with high upside, and grab as many as they can get.

Note: Teams don’t keep their compensation pick if they re-sign their free agent. They would also have to forfeit the pick should they sign another qualifying free agent and not have a first-round pick to give up (either because they pick in the top 10, or because they sign more than one qualifying free agent and have previously surrendered their first-round selection).

These compensation picks currently sit at # 31 & #32. If the Padres don’t sign a qualifying-offer FA this off-season, these picks will end up in the low 20’s or high teens. They already have the #8 pick, so this will immediately add talent to a depleted system if Preller & Co. make good selections in the June draft. The Padres have historically had a terrible farm system, and this is how you fix it.

Preller has made his share of mistakes in his first year on the job, most noticeably the Matt Kemp trade.  However he also stole Wil Myers, who can be a franchise player if kept healthy. Franchise players don’t grow on trees, and this organization is still reeling from losing Adrian Gonzalez, and then giving away Anthony Rizzo. Preller cleaned house and got rid of many assets that were largely fungible. Preller is obviously a stat guy, and his blind spot seems to be baseball tactics and in-game management. He needs to get at least one lefty in the rotation, an adequate (affordable) shortstop, and another LOOGY (Left-Handed One Out Guy) in the pen, so his new manager isn’t handcuffed like Black & Murph were in 2015.

In response to another fan on the board who disagreed with SD trading Trea Turner & Joe Ross for Wil Myers:

How about “acquired Wil Myers?  For a 22-YO 2B who ‘hit’ .225/.295/.325 with the Nats in 2015 & a 22-YO potential 2/3 starter in Ross. 24-YO Myers has superstar upside, but he obviously has to stay healthy. His wrist injuries began in Tampa from diving for balls on their artificial turf. Diving for balls in CF last year didn’t help, which was Preller’s fault as much as Myers’. He’s a corner outfielder & stud prospect. It was a great trade for the Padres, and it’s been overlooked because the 2015 Padres were so badly put together.

How’d I do on the rest?

11-20-15: Padres announce Spring Training schedule

Below are the remaining off-season dates of which Padres fans should be aware. The Rule 5 draft is next, and it could be an opportunity for Preller to snag a prospect– depending on the talent available and their roster situation in 2016.

Rule 5 footnote:  Organizations may also draft players from AA or lower to play for their AAA affiliates for $12,000; and may draft players from A teams or lower to play for their AA affiliates for $4,000. Most 12/4K picks never approach becoming MLB players, but serve as organizational filler which has value in that they help true prospects develop quicker, and with more success.

Dec. 7-10 — Winter meetings, Nashville, Tenn.
Dec. 10 — Rule 5 draft

2016

Jan. 7 — Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2016 announced (Trevor Hoffman)
Jan. 12 — Salary arbitration filing
Jan. 15 — Salary arbitration figures exchanged
Feb. 1-21 — Salary arbitration hearings

Feb. 18 — Voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players
March 1 — Mandatory reporting date

Any updates on the AFL, winter ball action, or any other Padres buzz are always welcomed by out-of-area fans. Thanks!

11-21-15:  Henderson, Yount recount milestone moments

Pete Rose (24 seasons): .303/.375/.409, w/ 198 SB, 149 CS; Tim Raines (23 seasons): .294/.385/.425, w/ 808 SB, 146 CS.  Rock was more valuable, and it’s a joke he isn’t in the HoF.  Rose should obviously be in too, but that’s another discussion…

2016 MLB HoF Ballot

11-23-15:  Open-minded Green embraces defensive shifts

“He’s open to any idea that’s going to help a team, help an organization get better,” Preller said. “He’s not looking at any idea or a particular statistic as being gospel. I think that’s something we share. You present an idea, he wants to hear it and then he wants to see how it works.”

The GM & manager are communicating, and on the same page. This already makes the Padres better than last season.
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Andy Green has managed in the minors, so he presumably knows how a roster needs to be constructed in order to win. Green needs to be in agreement with A.J. Preller, and vise-versa. That isn’t interfering, it’s called attempting to understand one another so they both can do a better job.

Old-school vs sabermetrics is a misnomer. Statistical analysis is meant to illuminate parts of the game that were traditionally overlooked or had gotten lost. Run production & run prevention are thought of much differently today, than they were 20 years ago. If you fall behind, you get left behind.

Moneyball critics always point to the fact the Oakland A’s under GM Billy Beane have never won (or even reached) the World Series. All that proves is that you need SOME payroll investment from ownership, in order to win it. The TB Rays were the same way, and it was maddening to root for them when team owner Stuart Sternberg didn’t care to invest. Many Rays fans (such as myself) quit the day they traded David Price, and not coincidentally GM Andrew Friedman & Joe Maddon left soon after.

Stats GM Theo Epstein joined the Red Sox in November 2003, and ended their Curse in less than a year, building a mini-dynasty in the process. That’s what happens when you combine a more-than-adequate payroll with moneyball. Ask any true blue Brew Crew fan, “Which do you want: beer or brats?” and they will ALL correctly answer, “Both!” It’s the same way with old-school & sabermetrics.

11-20-15:  Report: McGwire in talks for Padres’ bench coach job

Mark McGwire would be an inspired selection for bench coach. He was a power hitter who knew the strike zone. See how much more valuable he is, over a contemporary 1B who didn’t control it as well:

Mark McGwire (16 seasons) .263/.394/.588 1626 H 1317 BB
Cecil Fielder (13 seasons) .255/.345/.482 1313 H 693 BB

They both could mash, and PEDs surely inflated McGwire’s .588 SLG%, but the ability to take a walk is a baseball skill which big Cecil lacked– hurting his value.
It’s Mac’s career .394 OBP that truly separates him as a HoF-level performer.

Mark McGwire acted honorably during the PED show trials of 2005, by quite correctly refusing to answer whether or not he had ever used PEDs– as any answer would have put him in legal jeopardy. He told the committee, “I will use whatever influence and popularity that I have to discourage young athletes from taking any drug that is not recommended by a doctor. What I will not do, however, is participate in naming names and implicating my friends and teammates.”

None of the players were granted immunity in exchange for testimony, which would have allowed them to speak freely. Instead of dealing with the public health crisis of PED usage in young athletes, the congressional hearing cynically entitled “Restoring Faith in America’s Pastime” was an exercise in bipartisan political grandstanding. Rafael Palmiero (lying then finger pointing) & Sammy Sosa (pretending he didn’t understand English) truly disgraced themselves; but no one topped Bud Selig. The commissioner of the Steroid Era, in a snivelling & gutless performance, repeatedly claimed “no knowledge” or was “unable to recall” over a decade’s worth of overwhelming evidence of widespread PED use in MLB. More than anyone else, Allan Huber “Bud” Selig is responsible for MLB’s PED era, which still persists today.

Mark McGwire confessed his steroid use in 2010, with contrition. He is a proud, yet humble man who burns for redemption. New manager Andy Green & hitting coach Alan Zinter are inexperienced at the MLB level, which can be a problem with veteran players. Big Mac’s presence in the dugout & around the hitting cage would be an asset for the Padres, commanding respect from the players, while not challenging Green’s authority. I believe if he is given a fair chance, he will act with integrity & work his butt off to help the Padres achieve their goal of finally winning a World Series. That’s all a fan can ask for.

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Open Letter on the Padres from an outsider’s perspective:

An argument can be made, that the only season the Padres had a true ace was in 1998. That was the only season the Padres had Kevin Brown, and unfortunately they ran into one of the best teams ever in the World Series. Jake Peavy had four seasons of ace-level pitching in San Diego, and is the best career starting pitcher the franchise has ever had. Who is #2? It’s a toss-up between Andy Benes and Andy Ashby.

Randy Jones and Alvin Dark Padres

The franchise all-time MVP pitcher, measured by WAR is closer Trevor Hoffman. The Padres have been in existence since 1969 and their franchise 5-man rotation leaders by IP is: Eric (Win, Lose or) Show, Randy Jones, Peavy, Ed Whitson and Benes; which clearly reveals an Achilles heel that has existed since inception. The Padres must develop (and retain) better starting pitching, or it will never win a World Series.

Dave Winfield Padres

Another organizational Achilles heel is their failure to recognize the talent within. Consider these players: Dave Winfield (left as FA), Ozzie Smith (traded after 4 seasons), and Roberto Alomar (about to turn 23, and by far the best player in that deal). In 1992 young 3B Gary Sheffield was handed to the Padres by Selig’s Brewers. He became an overnight star, then was shipped to the Marlins who won the WS with him in 1997. San Diego got Trevor Hoffman in the deal, but Sheffield (22 seasons, .292/.393/.514) was worth much more, PED arguments aside. Hoffman is a HoFer because you need a closer, but his overall value is limited by his 1098.1 career IP. For comparison, Tom Glavine (Braves) had 4413.1 IP. More game time means more value towards winning.

Ozzie Smith Padres

Dealing 1B Adrian Gonzalez was another deathblow to a Padres competitive window. He would have been Señor Padre at the end of his HoF career, if they had kept him. Organizations typically don’t recover from that, especially when they squander the trade’s centerpiece by sending 1B prospect Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs for Andrew Cashner. Cash definitely has good stuff, with 2/3 upside if he can figure it out & stay healthy, but who knows how good Rizzo will be?  He was age 25, hitting .278/.387/.512 in 701 PA in 2015.

Only RF Tony Gwynn (20 seasons: .338/.388/.459) and Trevor Hoffman (18 seasons:  2.87 ERA) stand out as HoF-level career Padres, and that’s just not enough to win consistently in 47 seasons.

This is the legacy new GM A.J. Preller inherits, so long-time fans (who are understandably frustrated from decades of incompetence) need to cut him some slack. He’s had some missteps, but he’s also proven a quick study. Let’s face it, this entire organization needed an enema. Much detritus has been flushed as the Padres start anew, hopefully with better planning, scouting, coaching, and eventually players. A winning philosophy combines the best of ALL baseball thinking, as this game is too vast to ignore either its historical lessons or its recent innovations.

As far as team president Mike Dee and owner Ron Fowler go, their job is to provide Preller with the necessary payroll, while staying out of the day-to-day operations. The mantra with GM Andrew Friedman while he was in TB was always “trust in the process,” meaning if you are doing things correctly you will eventually see good results. The Rays were a moneyball franchise that never won it all, because they were hamstrung by ownership– competing short-stacked in the AL East, always forced to play for future seasons. “Pile up enough tomorrows and you’ll end up with a bunch of empty yesterdays,” said Robert Preston in The Music Man (1962).

In this era, a MLB team needs a payroll of at least $100-120 million to win it all. Ownership supplies the money, so obviously it is let in on plan, but it shouldn’t be allowed to meddle. If Preller eventually needs a boost in payroll to acquire a player who will put the Padres over the top (as the KC Royals did in 2015 by acquiring Johnny Cueto at the trade deadline), then ownership is obliged to step up. Mike Dee’s job from a baseball standpoint is simply to hire & fire the GM. As team president, his job should mostly focus on revenue acquisition from media, ticket sales, promotions, etc… A winning organization make his job easier.

1979 Padres and Prospects

Padres fans need to be patient, and die-hards understand this all-too-well. It’s a long off-season to go, but don’t have any winning expectations for the Padres until 2018, at the earliest. Obviously things will change as players get traded, new prospects develop, etc… All we can do as fans is understand the process, and speak our voices in forums such as these.  Successes need to be understood objectively, and are also the best opportunity for fans to express their emotions. Organizational failures should be pointed out and discussed analytically and rationally, avoiding anger & hysterics– which don’t help. It also doesn’t help to list random, useless stats as an argument. All non-pitchers can be precisely measured using the triple slash stats, AVG/OBP/SLG. If it is a season comparison, provide plate appearances & player age; for careers, provide the number of seasons played and defensive position. Defense is now accurately determined, with advanced metrics replacing traditional errors, put-outs and assists.  Pitchers are accurately valued using ERA, IP and K/BB ratios– season & career.

All this is a reasonable fan contract. The more Padres fans get on board with this program, the easier it is for GM A.J. Preller to do his job. The STL Cardinals are a great example of an organization that has everyone in sync, from ownership down to the bat boys/ball girls. Their organization & fans understand when to let an old star go (Albert Pujols), and who to retain (Matt Holliday). They develop their own position players and pitchers. That’s why they are consistently competitive, and win their share of World Series. If this is indeed the model Preller is trying to build, then it deserves fan support.

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