Padres, Fish swing 7-player deal featuring Cashner  7-29-16

Andrew Cashner pitched for 7 seasons in SD: 3.73 ERA, 30-49 W/L, 673.2 IP. He was pretty good when healthy, which wasn’t often enough, but his teams were mostly poor. Cashner has the stuff to dominate, but too often loses focus and allows the big inning. He has to handle this better to reach ceiling as a #3 starter on a good team.

It looks like a pretty good haul for the Padres RHPs Andrew Cashner, Colin Rea and a fringy prospect.  GM A.J. Preller had plenty to sift through, and he likely got the best deal for the Padres. RHP Jarred Cosart (age 26) is a project, with some potential. Rea had #4 starter written all over him. Injured closer Carter Capps too. Wow!

RHP Jarred Cosart was drafted in the 38th round by the Phillies in 2008, coincidentally their WS championship year. He shot through their system, and became the main piece of the RF Hunter Pence deal that sent Cosart to HOU in 2011. The deal was another bust for the Astros, and old-school GM Ed Wade was finally fired by new ownership after Drayton McLane, Jr sold out that winter. Cosart’s best year was 2014, he was age 24; 13-11 W/L, 3.68 ERA, 180.1 IP with HOU the MIA. He was dealt at the 7/31 deadline to the Marlins in a low-level 7-player deal that amounted to little. His issue has always been walks, and lack of punchouts. What scouts love is his low HR/9 rate and his projectable Texan frame. He seems to start well with an organization, then gets sidetracked. Jarred Cosart has <20 IP this year, so he’s fresh if he’s not hurt, which he may be. A.J. Preller has nothing to lose, so let Darren Balsley & Andy Green go to work on him. He’s a project, for sure.

Last deadline it was David Price, Cole Hamels & Johnny Cueto available, so Preller hung onto Cashner. Patience & vision; supply & demand. I tip my hat to this organization, this rebuild has been beautifully planned & executed.

[Update 7-30-16]  GM Mike Hill and a few others in the Marlins front office must have been enamoured with RHP Colin Rea. In his interview during the MIA/STL game last night, Hill expressed his adamants that Rea is a big piece of this deal.  That’s how Preller got Jarred Cosart & Carter Capps thrown in, on top of two of their best prospects for Cashner.  Rea can probably pitch ~30-40 more innings in 2016, before he has to be shut down, which won’t help the Marlins down the stretch.  Besides that, he’s meat: 4.98 ERA, 99.1 IP, 1.46 WHIP.

The BJ Upton deal to TOR indicates the market for OF’s.  Josh Reddick (A’s) and Jay Bruce (Reds) should be retained by their teams, for what OF’s are going for. The service time and QO compensation are more valuable. My $.02

Age-29 LOOGY Ryan Buchter 2-0, 2.93 ERA, 46 IP is probably all A.J. Preller has left for this deadline. Possibly CF Jon Jay?  We’ll see how the Federalist responds to having his wrist cast removed in a day or two… Preller likely keeps C Derek Norris because he’s cheap & valuable, just having a tough season, and therefore undervalued. RF Matt Kemp is untradeable.

Jon Jay is a decent CF and left-handed bat: .296/.345/.407. His strange 2016 batting splits: vs RHP: .275/.312/.397; and vs LHP: .346/.418/.432; indicate his value is on the short side of the platoon.  Some teams are hovering around replacement level in CF, and the Federalist (if healthy) is an upgrade.  Otherwise he’s a 4th outfielder on a championship-level team. Much depends on his recovery, and if teams are willing to wait a few more weeks.  He may be considered as a one-month rental, on a team with solid post-season expectations.  He’s owed ~$2M remaining on his last arbitration deal, and is not a player A.J. Preller can QO, because he’ll accept it and he’s not worth $17M/year. Jay would probably have been traded already, if he hadn’t gotten drilled in the wrist by Gio Gonzalez.

Espinoza (No. 21) leads three Padres prospects in Top 100
San Diego also lands Margot (No. 36), Renfroe (No. 52) on midseason list 7-28-16

The Padres owe Matt Kemp $18.25M/year for 2017-19. They’ve paid $21.5M for his first two seasons in San Diego, which is reasonable. What’s unreasonable is what A.J. Preller would have to do to deal Kemp, which is eat $40-45M (of the $54.75M owed). That’s ridiculous, but it’s what he learned in the BJ Upton deal. Therefore, Preller traded BJ Upton at a loss, because he couldn’t have both on his roster anymore, and BJ’s contract hurts less. Another year (or two) needs to expire off Kemp’s contract before he’s tradeable, so the Padres have to find a way to make the best use of him. His biggest assets are his power & durability, as he plays everyday and slugs well enough. Kemp will be age 32 in September, and lesser players start to breakdown at his age, but he’s tapered fairly well and that’s a credit to him & the Padres.

Kemp’s biggest issue is his lack of range on defense & low OBP, which needs to be remedied by moving him down in the lineup, as fresh talent displaces him. When Matt Kemp is hitting 6th or 7th (like he should be on a championship team), then the Padres will have a formidable lineup. After the trade deadline, look for: CF (L) Jankowski, 3B (S) Solarte, 1B (R) Myers, LF (L) Dickerson, RF (R) Kemp, 2B (L) Schimpf, C (R) Hedges, SS (R) Ramirez, pitcher’s spot. Better OBP at the top, with good SLG at the bottom of the order– except for Alexei Ramirez.
Next spring the rotation lines up as: Tyson Ross, Luis Perdomo, Cal Quantrill (?), Colin Rea [about to be traded], and a large 5th-starter mix. Note that Ross will be rested, rehabilitated, and in his contract year.

A.J. Preller has really owned this trade deadline, and he now holds the next big piece– RHP Andrew Cashner. Every contender would like to upgrade their rotation with a rental arm, and Cashner is coveted by the Giants, Rangers, Marlins, Orioles & Red Sox. Preller is holding out for the best package of what’s left of available prospects. Also, by taking his time, he’s running out the clock somewhat and putting pressure on other teams trying to make deals. Padres fans like that. Preller will also use that leverage, especially after how he was squeezed in the BJ Upton deal.

Preller got in first with Fernando Rodney & Drew Pomeranz, and it’s a lesson in being first to market. Pomeranz was the plum starter available, and Preller got top value in return. Rodney isn’t nearly as good as Aroldis Chapman, but Padres still did very well with the Marlins because Preller dealt him early.

[Update 7-30-16]:  Fernando Rodney since being traded to the Marlins: 1-2 W/L, 4.15 ERA, 13 IP. >>>——–//————> He was legendary for the Padres for half a season. Bad deal for both teams so far as RHP Chris Paddack, the 20-year old prospect sent in return, now needs Tommy John surgery. At least Paddack and the Padres have time on their side.

C Derek Norris has had a tough season at the plate, having to work way too hard defensively, with all the injuries & trades to the Padres pitching staff. When Cashner is traded, 3/5 of the rotation (w/ Pomeranz & Shields) will have been traded, with their #1 starter Tyson Ross on the DL for the season. [With Colin Rea also to the Marlins, 4/5 of the Padres rotation was traded in 2016] .  That takes a tremendous toll on the primary catcher, and Norris often looks tired because he surely is. Backup C Christian Bethancourt has a lively bat, but poor receivership skills, and catcher is too important defensively. Keep Norris and bring up Austin Hedges to start the majority of what’s left of 2016. Send Bethancourt to winter ball, where he must dramatically improve his defensive skills, or else find another position or team.

It’s really interesting to hear the CWS are now trying to trade James Shields, who is suddenly pitching really well. Last start against the Cubs was W, 7.2 IP, 0 R, and he’s keeping the ball down in the zone much better, with livelier movement. He just needed to be on a competitive team, which the Padres weren’t. Whether the Sox can trade him or not, there’s a significant chance he will exercise his opt-out at season’s end. It’s a very weak pitcher’s free-agent market this coming off-season, and the White Sox FO are definitely concerned that Shields may only be a rental, and if that’s true, they overpaid and are try to make it up since they’re basically out of contention now. That’s a crazy organization to play for, and Shields may opt-out just to get away. It also depends on performance, so it’s definitely not decided, we’ll see…

Padres go for NL home run record

San Diego has homered in 25 straight games, two shy of Major League mark 7-28-16

Padres are going home for a series with the Reds who have a team ERA of 5.31. With those stats, a fan would expect the Padres to break the record, but it would be just like baseball (and this Padres season in particular), if it didn’t happen. Note that lots of bad pitching everywhere makes this kind of streak more & more possible. This one started 7-1 against the Yankees, and the Padres are 11-14 during, indicative of their own pitching woes. [Update 7-30-16: Padres shut out by CIN 6-0 last night, team HR streak ends at 25]

Left-handed power is always an asset, and new additions 2B Ryan Schimpf & LF Alex Dickerson have delivered it, giving Andy Green contributions up & down his lineup. Padres weren’t getting anything close to this early on. Nice improvement offensively, and it’s a great sign for this organization, which has had a history of being punchless.

Power pitching is in the minors, so fans remain patiently optimistic. After the trade deadline, the rotation will be Colorado Rockies-bad, with RHP Luis Perdomo (Rule 5 from STL) leading the staff. Higher injury-risk for pitchers, means an organization has to develop plenty of arms to remain competitive, due to attrition. The summer drafts and deadline trades have helped fill all levels with high-upside arms. The 2017 season will likely be the first year of relative stability under A.J. Preller, as he now has a team & system he mostly likes. Everything began with the Wil Myers deal.

Padres storm past Nats with late surge  7-24-16

Really nice win for the Padres! They win the season series 4-3, from a good team. Nice bullpen work, and great AB’s up & down the lineup. Honestly, I don’t understand Dusty Baker NOT using Bryce Harper in a game situation in the 8th, then substituting him for Papelbon in the 9th, down 10-6. Either give your star the day off, or PH him in the correct situation.

Ankle keeping recovering Ross off mound 7-23-16
No point in bringing RHP Tyson Ross back this year. Padres are long out of contention and can’t trade him for fair value now. It will be mid-August at the soonest for any 2016 return.  Many bad things can happen, with little reward for the Padres. The priority is getting Ross right for 2017, as the Padres will need him to front a very young rotation. Shoulder injuries are the career-enders (vs. elbows), so a pitcher can’t take too long in coming back. Err on the side of caution, play it smart, and see the big picture.

Schimpf’s moonshot sends SD’s HR streak to 21 games 7-24-16
Ryan Schimpf’s line in 101 PA’s is .229/.356/.614, which is amazing. It’s the walks that make him playable, with the left-handed power skyrocketing his value. He’s 28, so he won’t get too much better, but what he’s shown (in a small sample size) is extremely valuable.

This is a great example of how A.J Preller covered himself at 2B, where the projected starter was Cory Spangenberg. Spangenberg performed poorly early, then injured himself and has been unable to recover. Preller anticipated this possibility and added Jemile Weeks, Jose Pirella, Adam Rosales and Ryan Schimpf– all on minor league contracts during the off-season. Everyone received a shot at one point or another, and fifth-in-line Ryan Schimpf has made the most of it. Preller found yet another (low cost) way to add a winning player to his team; on top of trades, the Rule 5, Amateur & International drafts. An improved coaching staff (remember he cleared out the system when he fired Pat Murphy & the rest of the deadwood after 2015), with an outstanding new manager Andy Green, also makes a huge difference in player development success.

I rate the best managers in baseball in the AL: Terry Francona CLE, Ned Yost KCR; and in the NL: Bruce Bochy SFG, Joe Maddon CHC, Mike Matheny STL, and Andy Green. Managers are more important in the NL, with the pitcher’s hitting, bullpen use, double switching, etc… Note that catcher’s tend to make very good managers, as the have to know all sides of the game.

If BJ Upton is moved to the AL East, it’s Toronto. They’re trying to win it all, and their current CF situation is Kevin Pillar, age 27; hitting .261/.290/.385 in 2016.

The Braves him use his “government name” when he signed as a FA from the Rays. BJ is a handle. He also made the best double play I ever saw a few weeks ago off J.J. Hardy’s bat: 8-3 to nail Mark Trumbo who was trying to make sure he scores on an extra base hit, on a ball hit over the fence to the left of dead center in Petco. Unbelievable

AL East clubs discussing deals for Upton, Cashner
BJ to the O’s doesn’t make sense, as he’s basically the same player as CF Adam Jones. RHP Andrew Cashner makes more sense with their needs. Padres have no need for RHP Ubaldo Jimenez. It seems there needs to be a third team involved to get the prospects A.J. Preller needs in return, as the O’s system is pretty bare. We’ll see…

The 8/1 deadline is it for the 2016 Padres season, fans. Once these veterans are dealt, it’s full rebuild mode. Padres September call-ups will be interesting for a change. It’s been a beautiful transformation to behold. This planned window of competitiveness is cause for optimism, and has rarely (if ever) existed in franchise history.

Padres sign Cuban outfielder Jorge Ona  7-20-16
This caps it for the Padres in the International Draft, and they pretty much stole the show. Padres now have a much-improved farm system, and still have young controllable talent at the MLB level (Myers, Solarte), putting them far ahead of the Braves, Brewers, etc… in rebuilding. A.J. Preller still has a few assets to deal, whenever an agreeable offer presents itself. So far it’s been an astounding transformation for this organization, with Preller now on the job almost 2 years in San Diego.

Padres could use a good start from Andrew Cashner tonight against Adam Wainwright & the Cardinals, as it would make dealing him much easier. It would also help if the lineup scored some runs to support him.

Jackson flirts with no-no as Padres sweep Giants 7-17-16
That 12-pitch walk by Alex Dickerson in the 6th was huge, as it really drained Johnny Cueto. It helps to have some OBP at the bottom of the lineup with him & 2B Ryan Schimpf. Christian Bethancourt’s bat helps too, but his defense (passed balls & framing) is really poor, and that’s why he doesn’t play more. Nice sweep Padres. They needed it, as their schedule gets rough for the next 6 weeks.

Padres tab Jackson to start finale vs. Giants 7-17-16
RHP Edwin Jackson is here to eat up innings at low cost. Padres just traded Drew Pomeranz for the future, and the remaining current options are him and RHP Paul Clemens. Paul is not Roger, and he needs some more work, if there is any upside (though not likely) to be tapped. Therefore it becomes the enigma/riddle: Edwin Jackson. For perspective: GM Andrew Friedman traded him as a Devil Ray, to Detroit for RF Matt Joyce, and it helped Joe Maddon a lot. Padres first series sweep of 2016 is not likely today. [Padres won]

Padres deal Pomeranz to Red Sox 7-14-17
2B Cory Spangenberg was GM Jed Hoyer’s #1 pick (10th overall) in 2011– his last draft with the Padres before he left for the Cubs GM that October. This season Spangenberg is age 25, and ‘hit’ .229/.302/.354 in 14 games, before tearing his quadriceps while sliding into first base. He’s now re-injured himself twice in rehabilitation to end his season, after an initial 6-8 week recovery diagnosis. He has shown neither the talent, nor the brains to be a winning player. If Preller can keep him on the 40-man roster, then ST 2017 is his last shot with the Padres.

Padres win stunner in 10th on walk-off balk 7-17-17
For a team that’s out of contention and in the process of trading away most of their assets, the Padres are making a good showing of themselves. This is largely a credit to manager Andy Green, who won’t let his team give up, despite their current hopeless situation. Remember, this team has been ravished with injuries. Showing resolve and finishing strong are winning qualities that will carry through to the future, when the Padres have more talent.

This could have easily been a 100-loss season, and it’s now clear it won’t be (even with the salary dumps), and that’s actually a huge step forward for SD. The Padres are rebuilding without becoming an embarrassment to their fans. This maintains precious hope & optimism among the fanbase. It’s been a tough 2016 season for the Padres, but it’s also been a success for GM A.J. Preller with his turnover & acquisition of organizational talent. A competitive window will open in their future, in about 2-3 years.

Padres break through for victory over Giants 7-16-16
Andrew Cashner’s next 2-3 starts are worth a lot of money, to a lot of people. If Cashner throws well with no injury setbacks, he’s in line to be traded to a contender, with a shot at a huge payday if he succeeds. If he blows up, then Preller has to consider QO options on him, which he’d rather not. Padres have done everything possible to get him healthy and showcase him. It now falls on him to perform, as Preller can’t trade junk.

Padres place Upton on bereavement list 7-15-16
Bereavement leave is a player’s right, earned through solidarity & the collective bargaining process. MLB players didn’t have this before Marvin Miller became their MLBPA representative.  Best to BJ & his family

Offense falls flat following Solarte’s early blast 7-10-16
Pitchers who throw ground balls are huge, as they give up less extra-base hits and home runs than fly-ball pitchers. Also, with a solid defense they are always one pitch away from a double play. The stuff is there for power sinker-baller Luis Perdomo, he just needs more experience & polish, which he’s getting under Green & Balsley. This has been a developmental season for him and the Padres in general, and there is noticeable progress.

Pomeranz, Marte, Bruce added to NL squad 7-9-16
LHP Drew Pomeranz is fair, for the Padres trading Rodney, who makes it as a Marlin, on his merits as a Padre.

Pomeranz leads Padres’ two-hit shutout in LA 7-8-16
Nice win for the Padres to climb out of last, after the Dodgers put them there to start. Drew Pomeranz is definitely for real, and it doesn’t matter about the All-Star situation. Kershaw obviously was the choice, and keeping him healthy is primary for the Dodgers. He’s 28 and has carried too much of the load for too long. He may need to be DL’ed the remainder of the season with his herniated disc in his back, depending on the severity and his rehabilitation. If necessary, the Dodgers must do it and deal with it. They owe Kershaw $35M/season through 2020.

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