AJ Preller is considering trading Fernando Tatis, Jr. The team AJ Preller has built around Tati hasn’t met expectations for many years now, and it has collapsed in 2026. The Padres aren’t a good team anymore. As a fan, I gave up on the 2026 Padres on July 1, when they lost 23-3 to the Cubs.

By the numbers they have the worst starting pitching in MLB and the worst LF. Catcher is still a black hole, and they don’t get nearly enough from their DH. The Padres are punchless. Their once elite defense is now league average. Their elite bullpen is overused and succumbing to injuries & fatigue.

AJ Preller is the Padres GM and he’s at a crossroads with Fernando Tatis, Jr. AJ Preller stole Tati from the White Sox in 2016, but the kid hasn’t performed up to expectations. Fernando Tatis, Jr has incredible talent, but lacks maturity & focus. He gives away too many at-bats and gets himself out too often. His kind of carefree leadership doesn’t beat the Dodgers. Still, he’s age 27 and a generational talent– and that’s worth a lot. I believe Tati needs to be on a good team with an established leader, and I think AJ Preller knows this too.

The MLB trade deadline is approaching in a few weeks, and AJ Preller is already gauging the market. Ace closer Mason Miller is the prize every contender covets. AJ Preller paid a lot to get Mason Miller last trade deadline, and he can probably get the same or more now. AJ Preller also knows the winter hot stove season is the best time to deal, in terms of trading away established talent because the 8/3 trade deadline puts a gun to the head of any GM that has to sell.

Over the winter, everyone is a buyer & seller. This makes it easier to put together big deals, and trade bigger players. More teams can get involved and there is no rush from November through mid-February when pitchers & catchers report. The Yankees, Mets, Red Sox & Dodgers will always shortchange any team compelled to trade high-end talent at the August deadline– in any season.

So what AJ Preller is doing, through his MLB press secretary AJ Cassavell, is determining what the top return value is for this trade deadline. Ace closer Mason Miller would be the top asset, so that sets the market. AJ Preller is a master at this on every end– buying, selling & holding. When Padres star Juan Soto needed to be traded, he was first floated at the 2023 trade deadline. When paltry returns were the market response, AJ Preller held. He instead traded Juan Soto to the Yankees that winter for a much better package than he would have gotten in a trade deadline deal.

Manny Machado & Xander Bogaerts will also go if Fernando Tatis Jr is dealt. AJ Preller needs fresh prospects, particularly pitchers. It probably won’t happen at the 8/3 trade deadline, but you never know with AJ Preller. He’ll have his hand in the market, influencing it profoundly. For sure AJ Preller will be busy from November onward rebuilding his team that collapsed.

The biggest problem AJ Preller has is being up against the bleeping Dodgers. It’s simply impossible for the Padres to compete anymore. After the Dodgers won the World Series in 2024, they went out and signed ace starter Blake Snell that winter. That was bad enough, but it was the Dodgers also signing lefty closer Tanner Scott to a 4/$72M deal that exasperated AJ Preller and many other MLB executives.

Tanner Scott has been acquired by AJ Preller from the Marlins at the 2024 trade deadline, and was an ace for the Padres against the Dodgers in the divisional round series the Dodgers won in 5 games. Tanner Scott completely neutralized Shohei Ohtani at the plate, so that winter the Dodgers went out and signed Tanner Scott so no other contender would have that lefty reliever who could neutralize their best hitter late in games. No other team could afford to do that, but that’s how the Dodgers take out insurance on winning the next World Series, which they did in 2025. Tanner Scott had arm issues in 2025 and wasn’t even on the Dodgers post-season roster last fall. This year he’s healthy again and now their ace closer.

The Padres are currently being sold by the Seidler family for a MLB record $3.9B to an investor group led by private equity billionaire José E. Feliciano and his wife, Kwanza Jones. What’s next, who knows? Since Peter Seidler’s death from cancer and the bankruptcy of the Diamond Sports Group (DSG) in 2023, the Padres have been existing on borrowed time. The Padres are now one of 8-10 fringe teams which has MLB broadcast their games directly, meaning they get much less TV revenue than the Yankees, Dodgers & Cubs. The Padres are a squeezed team in the same division with the Dodgers, meaning their immediate future looks pretty hopeless.

The San Diego Padres don’t have enough money to comp[ete, and they can’t make up the difference with their farm system because the Dodgers already have a top minor league system. Since Andrew Friedman took over as GM of the Dodgers after leaving the Tampa Bay Rays in October 2014, the Dodgers have figured it out and there are no organizational holes for other teams to exploit. Plus, they have unmatchable clout.

In 2026, the Dodgers carry a competitive balance tax payroll of $413M. MLB is the only sport where teams are still allowed to crush each other with crazy big-market spending. The penalties for overspending aren’t enough to stop the Dodgers from monopolizing the top talent. Every winter and every trade deadline. the Dodgers get what they want. They get the best talent, and they get it first. After they have fed, everyone else gets to fight over the remaining crumbs. It’s not very interesting to watch anymore.

This has been a frustrating season for the Padres and AJ Preller has kept himself quiet throughout. That’s a red flag right there. AJ Preller surprises MLB with his moves. It’s when you hear no whispers that you should be expecting. AJ Preller’s moves are bold & innovative. They always have a managerial logic that withstands fan & media scrutiny. No GM can be perfect, it’s about winning more than you lose and building a solid organization over time. AJ Preller has done that.

The Padres were a joke when he took over in 2014. AJ Preller has had to endure meddling ownership that brain-childed the Matt Kemp deal, trading away young prospects Max Fried, Trea Turner, etc. It’s an organization that needed a total rebuild, and the Padres competitive foundation is much better than it was 12 years ago. It’s the only extended period of competitiveness in franchise history, which goes back to 1969.

With new ownership, I don’t know how long AJ Preller will have his job. For many Padres fans, he’s our team favorite. AJ Preller made the Padres respectable, and they’re now selling for $3.9B because of it. How much new ownership values &  respects that is to be seen.

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