Tag Archives: AJ Preller

Padres & the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes

Posted on by

Read my preview analysis here

Silence from the Padres on the first day of the 2025 international draft means intense conversations with other GM’s regarding acquiring more bonus money for Roki Sasaki. This may be part of a series of trades AJP is about to make. Increments of $250,000 in international bonus money can now be traded. It’s not the money teams are trading, but the rights to spend that money on signing a player. How it is valued we are about to find out. AJP is a GM pioneer like that.

Consider this, if you were Padres GM AJP and wanted Roki Sasaki more than anything this winter, then you would do whatever it took to impress him, right? Money talks, so AJP is looking for 14 chunks of $250K from teams around the league who have international bonus money to spare. He’s letting all the other top talent get signed so every spender is spent, then AJP can get the international bonus money cheaper.

Timing is surely important to his plan, and that’s why it was so critical to keep East Coast Bias off his back while he executes it. AJP has until January 23 to sign Roki Sasaki before his Japanese posting window closes. Remember, the Blue Jays are the kicker team if MLB blows up AJP’s plan, as he brilliantly neutralized East Coast Bias with Laurentian Bias. It was a masterstroke of baseball GM genius.

By my calculations, the Padres & Blue Jays can acquire up to $3.5M, as no more than 60% from the base amount is allowed. The Dodgers can acquire up to $3M extra. If AJP is running this show, and I have postulated that he has from the start, then the Dodgers & Blue Jays are in no man’s land right now. Unable to act in the international draft in the vain hope of signing the ultimate prize: Roki Sasaki.

Every MLB team had a contingency plan to pivot from Sasaki if their bid failed. Some teams pivoted earlier than others. In many ways, the teams that were never in on Sasaki were the best off, as the weren’t distracted by something they weren’t going to get anyway. A Sasaki level of talent is like a drug that has you in the grips of addiction, you can’t quit as it consumes you. If affects your judgment because it’s so emotional.

Whatever the Dodgers Plan B on Sasaki is, it is slipping away as teams sign the top remaining international talent for 2025. This after they left $2.1M unspent last year on an early Sasaki signing gambit, that was as insulting as it was short-sighted. Andrew Friedman is currently in an impossible situation which he partly put himself in. If he keeps waiting, all the other top talent will have signed elsewhere and the Dodgers risk getting shut out of the 2025 international draft. The same dynamic applies to the Blue Jays, and that’s what happens when you go all in & fall short. If the Dodgers/Blue Jays sign another top talent, it’s a concession they aren’t getting Roki Sasaki. What do you do? Tick, tick, tick…

The only MLB team that didn’t have a Plan B on Roki Sasaki was the Padres. With their current payroll situation, this was simply a matter of failure not being an option for AJP and the Padres. You can follow this action from afar by monitoring which teams are signing the top-50 international prospects, and who still has bonus money to spare. Anticipate some complex 3-way deals trying to line up competing interests for the Padres purpose of AJP acquiring bonus money for Roki Sasaki.

Wed 15 Jan 2025 09:32 PM CST

End of Day 1 summary & analysis

Beyond the SDP, LAD & TOR, other WS contending teams that have been noticeably quiet so far are: NYY, BOS, ATL & PHI. Small market teams have feasted on Day 1 of the MLB international draft. On the big market side, the SFG & NYM each signed a top-5 prospect, but it’s the middle & small market teams that are reaping the early benefit of neutralized East Coast Bias.

Kudos to the Rays, Brewers, Twins, Marlins, Cardinals, etc, who are signing talent and using their pool money early & aggressively to improve their organizations. This is their big chance at low-cost future stars. Every draft class has a few guys who come out of nowhere to become impact players or stars. When the top prize is out of reach, a baseball GM must be realistic and find that talent amongst what remains available. That’s what organizational scouting departments are for.

AJ Preller is the type of GM who has the gonads to say to all of them: “I’m getting Sasaki. Who’s gonna deal me the $3.5M in Monopoly money in their bonus pool so I can pay this kid what he deserves?” It’s better to get it all at once and AJP will eventually find a price he likes in that market.

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro are at the helm in a long-shot situation in Toronto. They certainly know they are the kicker in this AJP deal. When do they act? Or do they just wait & see? Would they dare try to acquire $3.5M in bonus pool money? What would it cost them & what are the chances they will get stuck with it?

How about Andrew Friedman who is in a similar (but different) spot with the Dodgers? That $3.5M in funny money isn’t worth a whole lot, but perhaps it’ll return a better prospect from the Padres system than what was available in the 2025 international draft. Who knows? It will be worth a gamble for some team(s), and it only takes one with the unusable money to make a deal.

Too many teams still have most or all their bonus pool money for this not to be on MLB GM’s minds. Most heavyweights have usually signed a top player or two from this top-50 list by the end of day 1. The pickins’ only get slimmer on day two if you don’t hit the jackpot. From #2-50, only twenty prospects remain unsigned as of this writing. #2-7 are signed, with the Mets paying #3 prospect Elian Peña, SS, D.R. $5M. Other prospects around him got ~3$M. The other top prospects left will go for $1M-$2M. Prospects at the bottom end of the top-50 are going for $800,000+.

Beyond that it is a murky free-for-all, and that’s why it’s so important for an eligible international prospect to be on this top-50 MLB list. Most of the top prospects are from the Dominican Republic, Venezuela & Cuba– in that order. Prospects signed for <$10K don’t count towards the team’s bonus pool, and there are more than a few of those guys every year.

Sometimes the easiest answer to a difficult problem is a direct approach. A Padres three-way trade (as posited earlier) probably involves too many moving parts which can drop out, especially when Black Hand influence is in the midst. It allows for too many media leaks also. AJP needs one team (or two at most) to deliver the money for Roki Sasaki. Then he can sign the coveted ace with the proper financial respect, and all other Padres deals in the works can then be made.

Thu 16 Jan 2025 1:05 PM CST

It is now being reported on MLB dot com that the Padres & Dodgers have been calling other teams about acquiring bonus pool money– which is what I postulated yesterday. The Blue Jays apparently haven’t, which makes sense as I’ve outlined already. As a surprise dark hose, the Blue Jays have to be cautious with all these sharks in the water. The Dodgers are the beast of MLB right now, and clearly Andrew Friedman feels they should be all-in on Roki Sasaki to the end.

It’s a calculated risk based on the premise that Roki Sasaki is infinitely more valuable than any other eligible international draft prospect in 2025. It’s also his competitive nature to not give into the Padres on anything, who at this point are the Dodgers fiercest rival. Giving in is the worst sin.

Hypothetically, if the Padres currently have a 70% chance in these sweepstakes, with the Blue Jays at 20%, and the Dodgers 10%; Friedman would still play this same strategy. Andrew Friedman is (at minimum) trying to drive up the price for AJP to obtain the $3.5M he’s seeking from other teams. The Dodgers can only obtain up to $3M more, as they have a smaller original bonus pool.

Remember, this isn’t money that is being traded, it’s the right to spend that money on signing a player. In other words, the $3.5M (or $3M) these teams are seeking is monetary credit that can be traded and turned into bonus money which that team can pay to a new signee. Other MLB teams are now realizing they can possibly get a prospect in return for their bonus money credit, which both the Padres & Dodgers are seeking. Only one team can use this money to sign Sasaki, so it’s a game of blind-mans’ bluff between the Padres & Dodgers GM’s. If AJP suddenly acquires $3.5M, what does Andrew Friedman do? Or vice versa?

What the value of that bonus pool credit will be is what’s being discussed by these GMs, with other GM’s. The longer the international draft goes, the softer the market becomes for acquiring bonus money. The remaining international prospects aren’t as attractive, so acquiring a Padres or Dodgers prospect for Monopoly money gets teams excited to make a deal. As I wrote earlier, the Padres/Dodgers prospect they could receive may be better than anything left in the international draft, plus it won’t cost that team any real money to acquire that prospect. Nothing gets MLB GM’s more aroused than potentially getting something for nothing.

The Red Sox spent their pool money since my last update, so they are eliminated from this group of teams that have been inactive with possibly this trade strategy in mind. There is more than enough surplus bonus pool money around MLB for both the Padres & Dodgers to acquire their max limit, and even the Blue Jays too ($3.5M) if they were inclined. I don’t believe Andrew Friedman or AJP would give up anything close to a top-30 prospect in a trade market this soft, but it’s still unknown.

What I do know is that if the Black Hand of MLB blocks AJP’s pool money deal, he’s already picked out the Blue Jays prospect he wants for the $3.5M bonus money he has available in his bonus pool. AJP is far ahead of his competitors on this, as Andrew Friedman is stalking AJP’s every GM move.

If you want Roki Sasaki, then you have to go the extra mile and then some. Both Friedman & Preller know what is at stake, while knowing everything about how the system works. The Padres have more money to offer and can add more than the Dodgers. That is a fact. The Blue Jays can’t risk this gamble, which is an appraisal.

Between the Padres & Dodgers, one team is going to bust and go home with nothing in the 2025 international draft. Set-backs like that have rarely happened to the Dodgers under Andrew Friedman, as AJP seeks to level the competitive playing field with his arch-rival by doing whatever it takes to get Roki Sasaki ALL his bonus money.

This process is really about more than the money. It’s about doing your job as a GM to take care of a coveted player’s interests. It’s about proving your organization’s worth to that player to earn his loyalty. The team that does that best will win the Sasaki sweepstakes.

Fri 17 Jan 2025 11:52 AM CST

The Black Hand intervenes–again

It has just been reported by MLB that the Padres are out of the Sasaki sweepstakes and the Blue Jays have made a deal with the Guardians for the bonus pool money needed to sign Sasaki. Padres fans have seen this before, as this eerily recalls their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani in 2018. I suspect Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman convinced MLB to not approve any type of Sasaki-Padres deal– and they agreed out of competitive self interest. Clearly, AJP tried to get the bonus money for Roki Sasaki, but apparently no one would trade it to him– because the Black Hand was looming.

Notice that the Dodgers never got that bonus money the were talking so loudly about acquiring in the media for the past two days. Why not? It’s because they knew they were already out, and were doing anything (by hook or crook) to keep the coveted ace from ending up in a Padres uniform. Dirty tricks are part of the Black Hand’s modus operandi, and Andrew Friedman used his big-market clout to block his arch-rival AJP by that means. I have no respect for that. It’s equivalent to losing at something, then asking your parents to intervene on your behalf because you didn’t like the results.

This happened in 2018 when the Red Sox convinced MLB (in a more open & ham-fisted manner) that the Padres didn’t deserve Shohei Ohtani. How else does anyone explain Roki Sasaki to the Blue Jays? A few weeks ago, Toronto wasn’t even on Sasaki’s list, after he had been planning this jump to MLB for years. Once again, the Black Hand has revealed itself, and once again MLB writers & reporters who know better will bury this story. They could get fired & blacklisted for telling the truth here.

For seven years, no one (but me) has explained how Shohei Ohtani got to the Angels, the same way no one will honestly explain how Roki Sasaki is going to end up with the Blue Jays. AJP has been forced to pivot to the remaining international prospects after his Sasaki master plan was nullified by the wave of MLB’s Black Hand. The Padres organization & their fans wish Roki Sasaki the best in Toronto, but they are not only disappointed, they are disgusted by all this.

No, the best team doesn’t always win. That’s because there’s too many behind-the-scene machinations which rig the game in favor of the big market teams and their interests. It’s sad to realize this truth of life through a kid’s game like baseball, but these sports are big business and money rules.

Fri 17 Jan 2025 12:49 PM CST

Conclusion

The lesson of lessons in major sports, business & politics (which all this is) is: You must ALWAYS account for the Black Hand. Read that last sentence a few more times until it has absorbed into your marrow before reading on. I understand I’ve sounded somewhat like a lunatic-fringe conspiracy theorist at times as the Black Hand has been a leitmotif during my writings on the Sasaki Affair. But now that story has been written (largely by me), and it has unfolded in the context I provided beforehand, giving the reader everything necessary to understand this murky process, I feel it is time for me to take my leave.

Once again, it was NEVER an open contest among 30 MLB peer competitors. It is instead a monopoly capitalist rigged playing field. That is the Black Hand. Exposing that is more important to this writer than who gets Roki Sasaki. I love baseball, but it’s just a tool in life, and that’s the difference between me; and MLB writers such as Jon Morosi, Ken Rosenthal, Jeff Passan, etc, who have been reading & sharing me during the Sasaki Affair. My message to all of them is. “Tell the fans the whole truth– for a change… and fuck Buster Olney.”

In this spirit of sportsmanship, there are no hard feelings towards Roki Sasaki from Padres fans– particularly this one. This Padres fan holds those who are truly accountable to blame. The Black Hand hates exposure above all else, and this is how to strike back.

That’s what made my 2018 Ohtani Affair coverage so valuable, and why MLB has hidden its facts since. I believe my artist name was heatedly discussed at the MLB owners meeting held in Orlando, FL shortly after that murky 2018 international affair. My MLB account (handle: Ric Size) was deactivated and commenting became near impossible for me, until MLB killed all the team message boards later that year.

That’s an event that REALLY affected baseball fans and was never reported in the mass media, due to the Black Hand. If allowed to remain in the murky shadows, the Black Hand becomes the all-powerful nefarious force which violently consumes us all. In Trotskyist Marxist terms based on dialectical materialism, the Black Hand is imperialist capitalism.

Postscript

It was later announced in the day that Roki Sasaki chose the Dodgers. No surprise there either, which team would you rather play for? The Blue Jays were AJP’s kicker if his deal went bad, which it did, but it was Roki Sasaki’s choice to make. Sasaki made the ‘smart choice’ according to baseball insiders. I believe in his heart that he (& Shohei Ohtani in 2018) wanted to be in a Padres uniform, but elite athletic talent can’t resist the Black Hand as it is only a pawn in this game. Roki Sasaki understands that much better now and I hope those who are reading me do too.

The Dodgers are giving Roki Sasaki a $6.5M signing bonus. To get to $6.5M, the Dodgers must acquire an additional $1,353,800 in bonus pool money by next Thursday, January 23– an impossible task for AJP, but easy living for the Dodgers. As proof of favorable bias, the Dodgers get to announce the deal before they even have the money, something the Padres & Blue Jays would never be allowed to do by MLB.

After the first two days, AJP was unable to find another MLB team willing to trade him any Monopoly money to increase the Padres bonus pool for Sasaki and that was a clear signal from the Black Hand. Note that this Dodgers $6.5 is slightly more than the Padres had available at $6.2M. An appearance of legitimacy is what counts here.

Since the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy in 2023, the Padres are now one of 7 (possibly 9) teams that broadcast through MLB in 2025. The significance of that is if MLB doesn’t want Roki Sasaki in San Diego, then MLB can coerce Padres ownership into yielding by threatening their broadcast deal, etc– meaning their revenue streams. I have a sense that when this ‘business proposition’ was presented to Padres ownership sometime last night, the decision was for AJP to drop his Sasaki pursuit for the ‘good of the organization’.

It’s this type of blackmail, coercion, tampering, collusion, or whatever else you want to call it, that sent Roki Sasaki to the Dodgers. It’s exactly this type of ownership dirty dealing & league interference that turns off fans. The Padres will obviously have no comment on any of this. Just business as usual for MLB.

Over & Out

………..<><>><><><>………

Colin Rea & San Diego Padres history

Posted on by

Colin Rea just signed a 1yr/$5M contract with the Cubs.

RHP Colin Rea was the other starter in the infamous Andrew Cashner trade deadline deal in 2016. Rea was healthy when the Padres traded him, but Marlins manager Don Mattingly wrecked then-rookie Colin Rea the first day they got him, after which the Marlins front office whined & demanded the Padres take Rea back while returning pitching prospect Luis Castillo, whom the Marlins would later deal to the Reds for junk. In the wake of his heist of Fernando Tatis Jr from the CWS, and Red Sox whining over trades they won (Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz), MLB forced Padres GM AJ Preller to acquiesce to the Marlins demands. GM Mike Hill was a principal part of this sordid Marlins history and a huge reason why they stink today.

Marlins started Colin Rea the day they acquired him, on his normal 4-days rest after a cross-country flight to Miami. The Marlins were more of a max-effort staff, based on ace RHP Jose Fernandez (RIP). Rea, who had 99.1 IP as a rookie starter for a soft tossing stinky Padres staff, went directly into a playoff chase atmosphere where he was expected by everyone in the organization to go max effort to help his team win. It lasted 3.1 IP, before his elbow snapped, as he signaled to manager Don Mattingly he was hurt and needed to leave the game. Before this on Sunshine Sports Network, Marlins GM Mike Hill was raving about how Colin Rea was such an important throw-in to this trade and expected him to help them win for years. The next day, Mike Hill is demanding the Padres compensate the Marlins for their stupidity & reckless handling of a rookie pitcher clearly near his season’s innings limit.

To Colin Rea’s credit, he didn’t let all these murky MLB machinations in 2016 define his career. The Brewers deserve serious kudos for resurrecting Colin Rea as a respectable pitcher, to the point where a big market team in 2025 will pay him $5M to fill out their rotation. Colin Rea as Brewers starter beat the Padres a few years back, and AJP was quoted afterwards, “Who saw that coming?!” This from the GM who was suspended by MLB for a month over all this, No overview of Colin Rea’s MLB career can ignore this fascinating GM history.

Upon returning to the Padres, Colin Rea had his TJ surgery, but the soft-tosser was eventually released by them in November 2018. Rea pitched in Japan for a few years until the Brewers took him on as a reclamation project in 2021. He didn’t pitch in MLB in 2022, but then had two productive years with the Brewers in 2023-24.

As background, in the 2016 J2 (July 2) international) draft, Padres GM AJP spent $70-80M on young Latin talent. Before that, no MLB team had ever spent over $5M in a signing year. Teams got REALLY upset over that, so MLB changed their international draft rules & money allotments due to AJP. All that 2016 international draft madness happened around the time of the Colin Rea trade fiasco, and this is why some baseball people love AJP, and others don’t. He’s definitely not boring, which used to define the Padres. For a long time during AJP’s early years, there was a solid majority among the MLB owners & media that the Padres should be boring.

AJP has made the Padres competitive & relevant and kept them there, which no other GM has ever done. With all the trades AJP made to dump his veteran roster in 2016, the Padres never lost 100 games in a season during their building process. MLB media would endlessly accuse them of “tanking”, as they patiently rebuilt their entire system from within. “Why aren’t the Padres signing free agent Ian Desmond? They need a shortstop!!” These-type hysterics of irrational baseball thought would echo from every MLB & ESPN writer onto AJP. Beating the Dodgers is a monumental task, especially from inside their division. The reality of the all-powerful Dodgers has driven AJP to every extreme, and he has run headlong into the old guard of MLB repeatedly, which has done everything in their power to slow down the Padres, including tampering in AJP’s pursuit of RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani in 2017-18.

Buster Olney of the Red Sox/ESPN was lead hatchet man on that. If the Padres would have signed Ohtani, MLB would have confiscated their record 2016 international draft haul, so AJP kicked Ohtani to Angels GM Billy Eppler because it did the Padres the least harm. East coast bias markets (Red Sox, Yankees & Mets) were violently upset that Ohtani had spurned them for the west coast, and the Padres as an early favorite to land the two-way star was too much for them to stand. That murky chain of events is why no one in MLB can ever explain why Shohei Ohtani ended up with the stinky Angels in 2018.

AJP was then forced by ownership to pivot to 1B Eric Hosmer, who was handed a record free-agent contract whose main purpose was to buy the Padres ownership into the “respectable” club of MLB owners. This status was solidified when they signed 3B Manny Machado next winter. SS/2B Xander Bogaerts was another ownership splash from which AJP now has to recover. When deep-pocketed Padres owner (Peter Seidler) died of cancer in the same year their cable deal with Diamond Sports Group went bankrupt, Preller was forced to cut payroll under new ownership. First Juan Soto to the Yankees, and now Xander Bogaerts is the next contract AJP needs to move.

The Padres have taken extra care to make sure the ‘Ohtani affair’ doesn’t happen to them again in 2024-25 as they prepare to sign Japanese pitching phenom Roki Sasaki. Padres are in on him, as AJP is definitely one of the top-3 GM’s in MLB– along with Andrew Friedman & David Stearns. After Roki Sasaki makes his decision this week, the Padres will become hyperactive in the trade & talent acquisition market.

The Roki Sasaki countdown:

Mon 13 Jan 2025 06:50 PM CST

It was just reported on ESPN & MLB dot com that Roki Sasaki has narrowed his list to three MLB teams: San Diego Padres & Toronto Blue Jays, who have a $6,261,000 bonus pool this year, and the LA Dodgers at $5,146,200. No one has picked the Blue Jays, and some could view this as a respectful nod to Canada. Blue Jays fans should feel delighted they made the final list, over their rivals in New York & Boston, but they aren’t signing Roki Sasaki.

The Dodgers have been picked as the favorites in the Sasaki sweepstakes from the start, and conventional wisdom favors it. But there was a revealing sign the Dodgers are being played, or at least out-of-the-loop, when it was reported they had left $2.1M in their 2024 international bonus pool to sign Roki Sasaki early in the posting period, if possible. The Baltimore Orioles also played this losing strategy, leaving $1.9M in their pool which expired December 15.

On Wednesday morning, 9:00 AM EST, the new international signing period opens and Roki Sasaki can be signed for maximum bonus pool money, and teams can make trades to increase their signing bonus allotment by up to 60% from their initial figure.

In the last two international signing periods, the Padres have given all their money to sign the top prospect on the first day: C Ethan Salas in 2023, then SS Leodalis De Vries in 2024. AJP will give all his pool money to Roki Sasaki in 2025, save possibly a few hundred thousand dollars to sign a kid (or two) he likes from Latin America.

Mon 13 Jan 2025 08:42 PM CST

Toronto is a brilliant third choice finalist. It neutralizes the Yankees & Red Sox from messing with AJP’s business. If MLB ruins his deal now, he’ll encourage Roki Sasaki to sign with the Blue Jays and see how fans like that in New York & Boston. No one wants the Dodgers to get Roki Sasaki except Dodgers fans, so it creates acceptance from MLB towards the Padres, which AJP couldn’t get back in 2018 when he got jerked by East Coast Bias on Shohei Ohtani. Very well played by AJP.

One ironic note, the tip-off article on the Dodgers & Orioles leaving bonus money to potentially sign Roki Sasaki early in the posting period was written by Buster Olney, and posted in the Padres ESPN page. No mention of the Padres in that article [!], so why did Olney put it in the Padres ESPN news feed?

Tue 14 Jan 2025 11:23 AM CST

Roki Sasaki has cooled the MLB Hot Stove for weeks now, until he can sign for maximum bonus money starting tomorrow. This is what top talent does, it freezes the market until a decision is made. Until then everyone has hope & anticipation, and ideas based on that, but nothing to act on. Reducing the field to three still doesn’t resolve much, even for the 27 teams on the outside, because they need partners to trade with and the Padres are MLB’s leading trade partner. The Dodgers make deals too, but notice they’ve already been active in the free agent market before the Sasaki sweepstakes started coming to a head. The Dodgers weren’t as sure on Sasaki as the Padres, so they signed Blake Snell early. Andrew Friedman is no dummy.

After Roki Sasaki signs, I see Xander Bogaerts to the Yankees who are looking for another middle infielder. Both GM’s know what they are doing and have made mutually beneficial trades in the past, namely the Juan Soto deal. AJP needs to move contract with Bogaerts and get something in return, which may involve throwing-in another good player– or pitcher. I don’t see AJP dealing any prospects at this point. C Luis Campusano needs a change of scenery and is another trade chip for AJP this winter. Perhaps the most valuable Padres trade chip is ace closer Robert Suarez who is due $10M in 2025 and team controllable through 2027. Yankees already snatched ace closer Devin Williams from the Brewers, leaving free agent Tanner Scott & trade candidate Robert Suarez as the top remaining closer options for contending teams to acquire this winter. RHP Dylan Cease is yet another AJP blockbuster trade candidate. Padres need to fill holes (or upgrade) at C, DH, 1B & LF if they want to beat the Dodgers in 2025, and that’s assuming they sign Roki Sasaki. AJP has a plan, and Sasaki (& the international draft) come first.

Tue 14 Jan 2025 12:40 PM CST

This will be my final installment of this piece. I’ve predicted & explained Roki Sasaki to the Padres, before it happens, because I’ve seen this before from AJP. At no time during this process did I believe AJP wouldn’t get Roki Sasaki. AJP is controlling the market until he gets what he wants. He does it consistently, and as a fan, it’s always exciting to witness– even when he gets screwed by MLB.

Not this time, I’ve predicted. Too many aware eyeballs on the process this time prevents Black Hand machinations in the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes. The illusion of the Sasaki sweepstakes is that it was an open process to all 30 teams. In reality, only a handful were allowed to be considered and East Coast Bias had a word on which teams would be best for MLB.

Can you imagine what MLB would do if Roki Sasaki agreed to sign with the Reds or Pirates? [!!] That isn’t good for baseball according to those who own & run baseball, and on that they have a point, but when it comes to directly interfering with the amateur free agent process through East Coast Bias leverage with the MLB commissioner’s office, that needs to be called out as tampering. In 2018, the Red Sox & MLB tampered with the Padres in their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani. That lesson hasn’t been forgotten by AJP and his Padres organization, or their fans. May the best team win the Sasaki sweepstakes!

………<><><><><><><><>………

Talkin’ Padres 2024 hot stove

Posted on by

TRADE DETAILS
Padres receive: RHP Dylan Cease
White Sox receive: RHP Drew Thorpe (MLB Pipeline’s No. 85 prospect; SD No. 5), OF Samuel Zavala (SD No. 7), RHP Jairo Iriarte (SD No. 8), RHP Steven Wilson

Love this deal consummated yesterday for the San Diego Padres. AJ Preller used the top pitching prospect he didn’t like in the Juan Soto deal (Drew Thorpe) as a primary trade chip to acquire a front-of-the-rotation starter. RHP Dylan Cease is not as good as Corbin Burnes, but the Padres get two years of affordable team control without surrendering their top prospects.

Padres gave up three prospects and a reliever in the deal: RHP Drew Thorpe, a high floor soft-tossing top 100 pitcher with a 3rd starter ceiling; RHP Jairo Iriarte, a riskier high-ceiling top 100 pitcher and the key to this deal for the White Sox; OF Samuel Zavala, a 19yo lottery ticket; RHP Steven Wilson, a decent cheap reliever. If you are interested in winning, you would rather have Dylan Cease than what the Padres gave up.

This keeps the Padres competitive AND under the luxury tax, so they can reset after splurging and coming up snake eyes. Teams pay huge penalty amounts for being over certain tiers of payroll, and it’s difficult to get back under without tearing a team apart. For example, in 2020 the Red Sox traded RF Mookie Betts to the Dodgers and dumped LHP David Price as part of the deal. Red Sox ownership was no longer willing to pay the penalty for being over the payroll threshold, especially for a team that didn’t win. Red Sox haven’t been competitive since and currently are a mess.

Splurging in free agency sure ain’t what it used to be. Teams lose multiple draft choices and/or international draft money for signing free agents that rejected qualifying offers, especially when the signing team is over certain team-payroll tiers. That’s why the Yankees are locked-in with ace RHP Gerrit Cole now on the IL for ~3 months. GM Brian Cashman can’t sign LHP Blake Snell even though they desperately need him after losing out on Cease. The Yankees luxury tax on any Blake Snell contract would be 110%, meaning if they offer him $30M/year, the Yankees must also pay MLB another $33M in tax penalty. Plus, they lose their 2nd & 5th round amateur draft picks in the 2024 & international draft money [!].

That hurts, and it’s what happens when you spend yourself into a corner. What really hurts the Yankees is the Padres using trade capital (Drew Thorpe) from the Juan Soto deal to get Cease. If the NYY pitching staff falls apart, Soto is long gone after 2024. Padres dumped Juan Soto to the Yankees (because they had to) and acquired three pitchers who are going to fill out their 2024 rotation in Micheal King, Jhony Brito & Randy Vásquez. C Kyle Higashioka for CF Trent Grisham was an even swap based on the Padres need for a reliable veteran catcher; and Drew Thorpe reduced the Padres organizational cost of acquiring Dylan Cease to flame-throwing pitching prospect Jairo Iriarte.

The DSG bankruptcy in 2023 cost the Padres an estimated $60-80M in TV revenue, and caused them to operate at a financial loss of over $50M for the season. The death of majority owner Peter Seidler after last season reset the Padres onto a ‘get younger & cheaper’ trajectory. Padres GM grade: A+

The Padres are replacing veterans they lost with younger players, especially on the pitching side. The only opening day hole that remains is LF after trading Juan Soto, the rest they are filling internally. They even filled their manager vacancy internally, which I like.

Several years ago the Padres had the consensus ‘best farm system’ in baseball, but only Fernando Tatis Jr remains from that crop. The rest of those prospects were traded and most disappointed. This time around the Padres have drafted better & improved their player development, yielding a farm system that can feed more of its own talent onto their big league roster instead of becoming exclusively trade chips. It’s all about developing young talent in a way that helps a team win. It helps there is an organizational foundation now, because when AJ Preller arrived in San Diego there was little-to-nothing.

Trading Juan Soto to the Yankees helps the Padres because they won’t have the “will Soto resign” questions all season which was a distraction for the team in 2023. The Yankees get that headache in 2024. LHP Blake Snell was reportedly offered a 6-year deal at $28M/year by the Yankees in December, but refused it on the advice of his agent Scott Boras. Yankees then pivoted to RHP Marcus Stroman on a shorter deal.

Yankees, Giants, Angels & Rangers have been reported as being interested in the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, but no team wants to give up draft picks and international pool money for him on a short-term free agent deal, and no team will match the Yankees earlier offer for Snell. That’s how a professional athlete overplays his hand in looking for the big payday while not understanding the market and letting greed go to his head.

Those teams I listed as being in on Snell are it. Padres, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers are all taking a pass. No other teams are interested because 1) too expensive in dollars/win, and/or 2) too costly in draft capital. For what it costs in draft capital, you have to get at least a 4-year deal on Blake Snell. Maybe $20M/year at this point. Snell says he prefers the Angels. Rangers, Giants (& Yankees) need him more. Significant risk he busts.

If Blake Snell really wants to be an Angel, then he shouldn’t have retained Scott Boras (pic above) as his agent. Boras clients (Juan Soto, etc) go where the money is highest. I feel like Blake Snell is yet another case of an elite-level athlete who is very confused and it’s costing him dearly. At this point, he needs to think outside the box, possibly a deferred money deal like Shohei Ohtani with the Dodgers.

As a bookend, this is the first significant trade AJ Preller has made with the White Sox since he dumped RHP James Shields in 2016, eating half his remaining contract to get a prospect to go with injured LHP Erik Johnson. AJ Preller selected a recent international signee, not yet ranked on any organizational prospect list– Fernando Tatis, Jr and the White Sox agreed to it. Before long ESPN was asking, “Who is Fernando Tatis, Jr?” and that was the LAST time an old-school MLB franchise got robbed of a generational prospect. So it is fitting that the White Sox firesale from this failed era ends with AJ Preller getting just what he needs at a price he likes.

This winter I read a series of articles on Fangraphs written by their prospect guru Eric Longenhagen. For the record, I respect his method & scouting reports for young players whom I can’t see personally and don’t have time (or inclination) to research. One thing Eric Longenhagen admitted (that I very much agree with) is that player/prospect evaluation in the minors has taken a quantum leap in the last 5-10 years. It used to be so much guesswork and biased opinions of old school scouts, where now there is more raw data & video out there that can be analyzed & used.

This is good because it used to be that organizations such as the Yankees, Red Sox & Dodgers could hype their latest top prospects on TV and thus fool rival GMs into thinking they were better than they actually were. Today, input from analytic understanding fans on social media & blog sites won’t allow that crap to gain traction.

Prospect rankings are much more of a science now, with the clear understanding that a few organizations have outstanding farm systems, while most will be mediocre, spotty, or weak. Top prospects across organizations aren’t equal and depth is just as important in terms of winning. Top talent is identified more readily in this ‘stathead fan’ era, but sleepers still do exist, and that’s a GM focal point in most player-for-prospects deals.

It’s not that teams are less willing to trade prospects today, it’s teams valuing their prospects more correctly (more highly) than in the past. It started for real when the 2016-17 hot stove season froze out non-superstar free agents, and the analytic ‘Moneyball’ philosophy was proven correct. Young players were more highly valued by most GMs by then, and so the market for veteran free agents cratered. Guys who thought they were getting 4/$80M were settling for 2/$16M or 1/$8M. Free agents who refused qualifying offers were shunned by a majority of teams that valued draft picks & young prospects above expensive veterans.

There was huge player anger at MLBPA leader Tony Clark in spring training 2017 for him signing CBA’s (since 2003 when tax thresholds were first set) that allowed a de facto salary cap on free agents through a Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) on team payrolls by MLB. A competitive balance or luxury tax was first levied upon the five highest-payroll teams from 1997 to 1999, in response to Florida Marlins ownership buying a World Series in 1997 and then selling off the team before Opening Day 1998. That was a wild card team that got hot in October and so their title wasn’t respected by many baseball purists.

In the 2000’s a system was put in place to ensure the biggest spenders would eventually be reigned in by CBT penalties, while the pretenders could collect MLB revenue sharing and be profitable with 90-100 losses per season. Commissioner (and former Brewers owner) Bud Selig was hailed as a genius for this and installed into the HoF for keep the peace among the owners during this boom period in MLB revenue due to satellite TV & internet streaming.

What the old system of MLB free agency (1977- 2002) always relied upon was another willing spender. Today, at least a third of MLB franchises are in survival mode. The A’s don’t have a home, Marlins never draw, Rockies can’t develop pitchers at high altitude, Brewers, Pirates, Reds, White Sox, Tigers, Royals have cheap owners… When a top talent goes on the market, it’s always the same teams getting the cream. The smartest teams budget & plan for it.

The Rays are the best at developing and dealing their young talent. Rays say they can’t afford to pay top arbitration salary, so they deal early and look for sleepers in other systems they’ve scouted. They are the best at the modern Moneyball game. Everybody respects them, but they never quite have enough in October. The last homegrown ‘small-market’ team that won it all was the Royals in 2015. That was less than ten years ago and yet that era of baseball seems a lifetime away.

It’s fear that drives many of these decisions. Fear of being wrong and crucified in the media & on social media. Fear of losing your job. GMs who operate based on fear are doomed. You can’t win like that. It’s the boldest and most ruthless organizations that are able to exploit the fears of those who are just happy to survive. In between the haves and have-nots, there are a few interesting teams like the Rays, Orioles & Diamondbacks who know what they are doing. It makes this unpredictable game more predictable than ever in terms of who will win in 2024. Is that progress? It depends on who you ask.

Tue 19 Mar 2024 10:30 AM CDT

MLB sources now report that LHP Blake Snell is about to sign a 2-year contract worth $62M, with a player opt-out after 2024. Blake Snell rejected a QO from the Padres, so the Giants will lose their third-round draft pick in 2024, as well as $500,000 from their international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. San Francisco had already forfeited its second-round pick (and international pool $) after signing 3B Matt Chapman, who declined a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays.

For the Giants, this is an expensive price to pay for what could be one year of Blake Snell. If Snell pitches well in 2024, he can re-enter the free agent market and try his luck again, without a QO tag attached to him. If Snell pitches poorly this year, he will pick up his (overpriced) 2025 option. That $31M option for 2025 makes Blake Snell tougher to trade at the Aug 1 deadline if things fall apart for the Giants in 2024. They would have to eat significant contract to deal him for any prospect value in return. Deals that are so costly, and lock a franchise in like this, are extremely risky. That’s why most teams stayed away.

Blake Snell didn’t get the long-term deal he was seeking because he played his cards poorly, and/or he was never serious about joining the Yankees. He didn’t wind up with the Angels either, which was his preferred destination. Most MLB players who are fortunate enough to reach free agency, only get one chance to negotiate a deal of a lifetime and Blake Snell blew it with Scott Boras as his agent.

The only way the Giants can win this deal is if Blake Snell pitches great and leads them on a deep post-season run. Every other scenario pans out with the Giants losing value & paying the price. When you do risk assessment as a GM, this screams, “DON’T DO IT”, but teams can’t help themselves. They have billionaire owners who want to win, pushing the front office to foolishly go for it when it’s a bad risk, which if it fails will set the organization back. That’s what Scott Boras & MLBPA executives have always counted on, but it’s getting harder to pull off. That’s the current dynamic in MLB.

Final thoughts: If QO free agents can’t find the long-term deal they are seeking, the next-best option is to take a 1-year deal for maximum money with a player option for a second year in case they have a bad season or get hurt. Teams have WAR/$ projections, injury risk analysis, etc, for every MLB player, so coveted players really don’t need an agent to represent them. Players simply need to understand their true value– warts and all (particularly the QO tag)– to determine what the market is and what they can get.

Scott Boras & the MLBPA executives represent the star players (& now top prospects) of MLB. The young players & non-star players are the majority who sacrifice themselves the most for these superstar salaries & MLB owner profits. Most MLB players are well-underpaid for their first 6 years, and since 2017-18 they have been squeezed in free agency, as it is well understood that (in most cases) veterans can be adequately replaced with younger cheaper players. This is how MLB free agent salaries have been driven down for the majority of the players, while a thin layer of superstars get mega-deal$.

……….<><><>><><>…………

Padres 2023: the final countdown

Posted on by

Preface: First posted on Facebook just before the Padres-Cardinals series began @ Petco. Updates will continue until they are mathematically eliminated, or (miraculously) make the post-season.

Padres have won 7 in a row to increase their chances of making the post-season from <0.1% to 0.7%. RHP’s Joe Musgrove & Hu Darvish, along with C Gary Sanchez & UT Jake Cronenworth, etc, all shut down for the season. The Padres still have a strong rotation with Blake Snell, Michael Wacha & Seth Lugo, but they NEED a 4th starter. Young righty knuckleballer Matt Waldron (PTBNL in the Mike Clevinger deal with Indians) starts for the Padres tonight against the Cardinals.

Pedro Avila is their 5th starter but he can be skipped this time through the rotation because the Padres just had a off day. They’ll either need Avila to win a game in the Giants series next week, or continue to be an effective bullpen option. Pedro Avila is a young promising righty arm, who has been a good bullpen guy that can also spot start. AJP got him in the Derek Norris heist from the Nationals in December 2016. That farm system depth needs to play more for the Padres in 2024.

Sat 23 Sep 2023 10:30 AM CDT

Matt Waldron (pic above) pitched great, as the Padres won 4-2 last night for their 8th straight (post-season chances now 1.7%). It’s RHP Nick Martinez starting for the Friars tonight, not Pedro Avila. Martinez is the other duel use Padres option. It just shows how much talent this roster has.

The Padres are being aggressive and using their 5th starter now, at home against a poor team, instead of against the Giants next Wednesday. It will be Matt Waldron for that start, then an off day, allowing their rotation to flip back to Wacha-Snell-Lugo @ White Sox to close the season. I describe all this to prove this team is well managed. Bob Melvin is a good manager. That’s not the problem.

The Padres now sit four games behind the Cubs with eight left. Padres lose the tiebreakers to the Cubs & Snakes, so it ain’t happenin’, but as a fan you kinda have to follow your team until the end… The 2023 Padres are the most frustrating & confounding team I’ve ever rooted for.

As a Reds fan in 1981, that was the most frustrating. Most baseball fans don’t recognize that season as legitimate. The post-season should have been the Brewers v A’s in the AL, and the Reds v Cardinals in the NL. But MLB owners wanted to reset the season for everybody after the players strike was settled, so the Dodgers beat the Yankees in the WS that year. Total joke. Fans don’t blame their teams for that.

When the Rays traded ace LHP David Price in 2014, that was frustrating as a fan. Same goes for Brewers fans with dumping ace closer Josh Hader last year. Fans rightly blame ownership & management for that crap.

But the 2023 Padres were given everything they needed to win, by management & the fans. Padres set an attendance record this season, and they had their highest payroll ever, both 3rd in MLB. But the Padres players never showed any urgency, and seemingly lost every close ballgame they played, until these final three weeks of the season. For the first 5+ months, they underperformed with very little fight.

I honestly never expected the Padres to win the NL West this year, as they finished 22 GB the Dodgers last year. But they were expected to nab a Wild Card and be a dangerous team in the playoffs again. Instead, GM AJP was forced to consider selling at the trade deadline, but the market was cold, so he flipped to being a soft buyer and got cheap reinforcements for his squad. It was better than doing what the Mets did, but nothing worked for the 2023 Padres and sometimes it’s just not your year.

As a fan you have to applaud the player effort up to the end, but then ask, “Where was this all season?” This franchise will be in the news again this winter, you can be sure. AJ Preller has some team chemistry issues that need to be addressed if the Padres are going to be a serious WS contender going forward.

The Padres lineup was clicking in spring training. I know ST doesn’t matter, but in this case they had Fernando Tatis, Jr. Then the season started and Tatis was placed on the suspended list until April 20, as a carry-over from his PED suspension in 2022.

This happened because Tatis hurt his wrist in a motorbike accident(s), and it happened in the Dominican Republic during the MLB owners lockout, so the Padres didn’t know about it, as teams were not allowed to communicate with any of their players during this collective bargaining stand-off. The CBA was ratified just before 2022 Spring Training, and then the Padres found out he had been hurt. Tatis then used a banned substance out of stupidity & recklessness, and was busted for it just as he was about to return from his wrist injury. This is why AJP had to empty the farm system to get Juan Soto. The 2022 Padres never would have made the post-season without all the deals AJP made that trade deadline.

Tatis, who was once hailed as the franchise leader, wasn’t there with his teammates on Opening Day 2023. The Padres struggled out of the gate, anxiously awaiting Tatis’ return, fans were told. When he re-joined the team, he’s now the RF, with splash FA signing Xander Bogaerts taking over at SS. But the question remained, “Who is the leader of this team?” It can’t be the PED guy, he’s got to produce and win back the team, organization & fans. He ALONE has to face to the jeers, boo birds & harsh critics. That divides a team, and it was inevitable.

Padres got very little production at CF, 1B & DH in 2023. When AJP nabbed C Gary Sanchez off waivers on May 29, it filled a HUGE hole– until he got hurt in September. It still begged the question, “How come this expensive team has so many holes?”

LF Juan Soto had a great season, and that’s the guy the Padres give money to this off-season, if ownership insists on making a splash. Not DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, due to his 2nd TJ. That’s how much the market has shifted on that.

With Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts & Soto the Padres should be competitive. They have a decent pitching staff and a good farm system (again), as they’ve gotten better at drafting & player development, which they needed to do to catch the Dodgers. At this point, the Padres need to get better than the Phillies & Brewers before they can set their sights on the Dodgers & Braves. The 2024 Padres need to be younger & more homegrown, otherwise they will turn into the Mets & Yankees.

Sat 23 Sep 2023 11:30 PM CDT

Padres stacked righties Nick Martinez (4.0 IP) with Pedro Avila (2.2 IP), and it worked for six scoreless innings. But Avila cracked for two runs in the 7th, and the Padres lost 5-2 to the Cardinals in 11 innings. Padres fall to 0-12 in extra innings in 2023, and in many ways it capsulized the Padres season. They had a solid game plan to win. They had a lead & pitched well, but couldn’t tack-on when opportunities arose, either through bad luck or bad play. They couldn’t produce good AB’s when it mattered most. Just enough to beat them.

This time a main culprit was Luis Campusano not running hard out-of-the-box and getting hosed easily at second base to kill a potential rally in the 6th. The normally supportive home fans booed, and deservedly so. In 2023, that crap happened over & over against bad teams in front of capacity Petco crowds. Padres players have work to do to win back their fans in 2024, as Friar faithful feel betrayed by a careless lack of effort this past season.

Padres then started to press and it snowballed into defeat. Ha-Seong Kim got picked off 1st base to end the 8th. Bottom of the 9th, Padres down 2-1, they load the bases with no outs, and the top of the order coming up. Bogaerts grounds into a force play for a game-tying RBI, then Tatis & Soto strike out, which means extra innings. A couple of GIDP’s late in the game were leitmotifs for the 2023 Padres. Twelve walks, but only six hits in 11 innings for the Padres, all singles.

Cubs & Marlins won, while the Giants & Reds lost, so the Padres are virtually eliminated, which means I’m done after this update. The Diamondbacks were weathered-out @ Yankees on Saturday by Tropical Storm Ophelia, and will try to make it up as a doubleheader on Monday (hopefully), as they have no more off days. Sunday’s game is questionable at this point. The most likely NL team to collapse down the stretch is the D-backs, who along with the Reds & Marlins have a negative run differential.

Climate change has created havoc with the MLB schedule this season, and it’s hurting the Snakes here. Earlier in the summer (June 27-29), the Padres played a series @ Pirates where Canadian wildfire smoke choked the air for three games. Players weren’t allowed to complain too loudly, as getting the games in was primary. What was supposed to be a soft spot in their road schedule turned into a disaster, as the Padres got swept in Pittsburgh and then lost 2-of-3 in Cincinnati. There were times during the season I felt players were put in a position where winning the game was secondary compared to what was going on around them. No doubt this affected their effort & performance at times. This happened to every team to a varying degree.

Padres hot stove season outlook

Austin Nola, the older brother of Phillies RHP Aaron Nola, is an interesting Padres arbitration case. He’s gonna be 34, which is very old for a catcher, and he was sent down to the minors in July after posting an anemic .146/.260/.192 batting line in 2023. Austin Nola has 3.1 years of MLB service time, making him arbitration eligible this winter after making $2.35M this year. He’s possibly/likely a non-tender for the Padres. Look for AJP to try to package him in a deal, if possible– or re-sign him to a minor league contract.

Padres are still hopeful on C Luis Campusano who is about to turn 25. He’s had defensive issues and injuries have hampered his development. Health is a skill, but the raw talent is there. He can really hit. Also recall, the Padres went all-in on C Ethan Salas during the Jan 15, 2023 International Draft. He was the top prospect available and the Padres gave Salas all their slot money to get him. Ethan Salas is the Padres #1 prospect, playing at AA at age 17. Padres need a veteran C to start 2024, so re-signing Gary Sanchez remains a possibility. AJP will explore the market, but their catching future appears to be in the system.

LHP Robby Snelling is the Padres #3 prospect, one of three finalists for minor league pitcher of the year. This high school draftee, above-slot bonus baby, the #39 overall pick in the 2022 Draft, could be competing for a Padres rotation slot some time in 2024. Padres #6 prospect, 2018 International Draft selection RHP Jairo Iriarte, age 21, is expected to compete for the Padres rotation in 2024. RHP Adam Mazur, a 2022 college draft pick, age 22 has a 2025 ETA. Padres farm system doesn’t have the depth it had a few years back when it was the best in baseball, but it has some high-end talent.

Padres have RHPs Joe Musgrove & Hu Darvish locked up, so it’s ‘however AJP decides’ to fill out his rotation after losing LHP Blake Snell (NL Cy Young 2023) to free agency. Padres will take the compensation pick on Blake Snell, and for Josh Hader too. Those were a couple of GREAT trades that will continue to bear fruit for the Padres. One way to build talent & depth in a farm system is by acquiring compensation picks* and using them well. For the record, AJP was set up to deal Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and possibly Juan Soto at the 2023 trade deadline– the BEST rental starter, closer, AND positional player available. When the seller market froze (due to East Coast Bias collusion), AJ Preller pulled back and left the Mets high & dry as they proceeded to dump for pennies on the dollar because they had no choice.

* Compensation picks are more valuable than many of the top prospects that were dealt this past trade deadline, including the players in the Max Scherzer & Justin Verlander deals. The Mets paid $43.3M to the Rangers to get SS/2B Luisangel Acuña in the Max Scherzer trade deadline dump. Luisangel Acuña is now the Mets top prospect (#38 in MLB), expected to arrive in 2024 at age 22. A compensation pick costs a team <1/10th (top pick, ~1/5th) of that in terms of dollars, which means if the player busts, it’s not devastating. But if this “$43M prospect” doesn’t cut it in the Big Apple, then fans, players & media will immediately point fingers.

That’s the risk of overvaluing prospects, which GM’s tend to do when their farm system is barren and a re-build is in order. RHP Justin Verlander was also dumped by the Mets, to the Astros for OF Drew Gilbert (#2 Mets, [#52 MLB], 2025 ETA), and OF/1B Ryan Clifford (#6 Mets, 2026 ETA). Mets paid $39.1M to get those two prospects, neither of them a pitcher. In total, the Mets paid $82M on August 1, 2023 for three non-pitcher prospects (now #1, #2 & #6 in their system), in exchange for their two veteran aces. Was it worth it? Probably not, but we’ll see.

The bigger point is a GM should never put an organization in that situation. With all those resources made available, the Mets had no back-up plan if their 2023 team collapsed, which it did– and it cost them dearly. Mets GM Billy Eppler then had to do as ownership commanded at the trade deadline and recoup what he could regardless of the cost, knowing all along he was going to be replaced by David Stearns. It was the worst kept secret in MLB for over two years.

This is the Amazin’ Mess which new GM David Stearns now inherits. He’s a bright guy who built the Brewers pitching staff of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff Freddie Peralta which is as good as any trio in MLB. The Brew Crew have a deep bullpen, and a manager who knows how to use it. Craig Counsell is a top-3 MLB manager every year. David Stearns also made great trades over the years to build the Brewers into a consistent winner on a budget. He leaves Milwaukee in good hands and will now have a top-tier payroll in the #1 media market. It’s comparable to Andrew Friedman leaving the Rays for the Dodgers in 2015. The Mets will be good again very soon with David Stearns as their GM.  ****

Padres have an interesting decision on RHP Michael Wacha, age 32, who has a player option for $6.5M, while the Padres hold a $16M team option for 2024 & 2025. Wacha earned $7.5 in 2023, and was their 2nd-best starter, behind Blake Snell. I suspect the Padres will pick up Michael Wacha’s option for $16M.

RHP Seth Lugo also pitched great, after being signed as a 5th/6th starter, he ended up as the Padres 3rd starter. Seth Lugo has a $7.5M player option for 2024, but may decline that after having a nice age-33 season for the Friars. He might be looking for a multi-year deal on the free agent market. The Padres are looking to get younger on the pitching side, but on the other hand, if Seth Lugo exercises his player option, the Padres would be ecstatic. You can never have too much pitching, especially when it’s a reliable team player.

Padres #2 prospect, SS Jackson Merrill, age 20, is expected to arrive in 2024. I don’t envision AJ Preller dealing any of his top prospects, as they’re part of his plan to get younger, cheaper & better. If AJP deals any of them, it’s this one, and only for a young stud pitcher. CF Trent Grisham & UT Jake Cronenworth are different stories. Unless they can become invaluable bench/utility pieces, they don’t fit on the Padres active roster, and thus become tradeable.

Trent Grisham is my favorite Padres player, but he’s done two things I don’t like. He changed his number, and he grew a porn mustache which has coincided with his two-year hitting slump. Go back to the old #2, and shave the stache! That’s old school coaching. As far as advanced metrics go, Trent Grisham is a pure lefty, so I don’t understand his splits. According to his 2023 numbers (with ~ a week to go), Trent Grisham (overall .199/.315/.353) can’t hit righties. He’s a punchless .180/.300/.329 with three times the at-bats against righties, while hitting .252/.355/.420 against lefties. This is the opposite of what’s expected in lefty/righty splits for a lefty hitter.

It’s just one of the MANY things that is so confounding about this Padres team. Why can’t Trent Grisham hit righties? It would solve so many problems! Perhaps the most difficult part of evaluating a player like Trent Grisham is distinguishing what a player is from what you want him to be. For prospects, its infinitely tougher because they are all so far away from the Majors that projections are tentative at best & always subject to change. Baseball is the toughest game to predict.

Padres just signed Jake Cronenworth to an extension through 2030 last winter, while Trent Grisham has two more arbitration years remaining, after earning $3.175M in 2023. Of the two, CF Trent Grisham is a more coveted asset because he’s younger, cheaper, and plays a more valuable defensive position at a gold glove level. He can be seen as a guy who needs a change-of-scenery, and still has upside. Jake Cronenworth has value, due to his positional flexibility, good defense & lefty bat. He needs to be a utility guy for the Padres, not a DH or 1B. The Padres would have to eat contract to maximize his trade value. How much is the rub, so most likely the Padres keep Jake Cronenworth, but he could be floated this winter.

AJP reserves the right to do that with all his players, except those with no trade clauses. GM’s maximize the value of their players & prospects by offering deals for them. If another organization over-values that player, a smart GM will know what players he/she wants from EVERY organization, top to bottom. That’s when they make a deal. If that organization also undervalues their player/prospect, it becomes a steal.

2B Ha-Seong Kim is an underrated player signed to a team-friendly deal through 2026. Padres want to keep him, but they have too many middle infielders, so he could be dangled as trade bait. AJP refused Ha-Seong Kim-for-RHP Pablo López from the Marlins last winter, so the righty pitcher went to the Twins instead, who extended him before his arbitration expired. Good move by the Twins. That was also a good ‘no trade’ by AJP. Marlins new GM Kim Ng moved on and made a great deal getting 2B Luis Arraez from the Twins for Pablo López. This ‘non-trade’ was a vast improvement in team relations, as AJP couldn’t even talk to Marlins ex-GM Mike Hill after the 2016 trade deadline.

The best thing about being a Padres fan in this era is knowing the management side of things is being taken care of. This team no longer gets ripped-off in trades. They do that to other unwitting franchises now. Padres scouting & drafting has improved by light years from when AJP took over in 2014. It’s a long way to the top, it’s VERY competitive, and success isn’t always linear. Padres need to stick with their process, even as the doubters persist. This was a necessary step back year for them, as they still owed on Fernando Tatis Jr’s PED baggage. They weren’t as good as they finished in 2022, but they aren’t as bad as they played in 2023. The hardest part is recognizing, understanding & accepting this.

…………<><><><><><><><><>………….

 

Postscript on the Mookie Betts salary dump

Posted on by

Well it finally happened. The Red Sox have announced the dumping of RF Mookie Betts & LHP David Price to the Los Angeles Dodgers. It turns out that LA GM Andrew Friedman was willing to give up young RF Alex Verdugo, which is the key piece in the deal. Verdugo missed the last two months of the 2019 season with core & back issues, which is a red flag.

If Alex Verdugo is an injury bust, then the Dodgers may win this trade. Unless Price goes down. That’s the only risk the Red Sox are taking in this deal. If Verdugo comes back healthy & productive, then the Red Sox did well to get what they could in this dump, as he’s under team control through 2024. That’s how the trade rates–meaning it’s wait & see.

The Dodgers also gave up RHP Kenta Maeda, a bargain starter who is locked in at $3.125M per year for the next four seasons, to the Twins for RHP Brusdar Graterol (MLB Pipeline’s No. 83 prospect), who was also sent to the Red Sox.

The Dodgers then sent RF Joc Pederson to the LA Angels, along with OF prospect Andy Pages, for young 2B Luis Rengifo who is still pre-arbitration. This makes room for Mookie Betts in the Dodgers outfield with Cody Bellinger & AJ Pollock.

The problem with these deals from the Dodgers perspective is that it makes them older in the outfield, as compared to Pederson, Bellinger & Verdugo. Plus, the extra productivity they get from Mookie Betts only lasts one season. But the real problem is that AJ Pollock is replacement level, and needed to be dumped. Instead he’s now being made an Opening Day starter for the Dodgers.

When that all washes out, this isn’t as much improvement as one would expect from getting a MVP-type player in Betts. In short, the Dodgers gave up too much to an organization that had no choice but to dump salary. They also took on too much risk in David Price for three years.

The Red Sox accomplished their goal of getting under the Competitive Balance Threshold (CBT) by dumping Mookie Betts & RHP David Price. Reports are the Red Sox will eat around half of the $96M Price is owed over his next three season, and all that money will count towards Boston’s CBT.

So the Dodgers get age-34 David Price, with all his elbow calcifications and other wear & tear. The Dodgers wanted to make a splash, and they did. But does it really help? Once again, time will tell. It’s questionable, for sure.

The other Mookie Betts suitor this winter was the San Diego Padres, who were reportedly engaged with Boston until the end. Padres had no interest in Price. A few proposals the Red Sox were floating through the media were as follows: 1) Padres get Mookie Betts; Red Sox get: C Luis Campusano (MLB’s No. 50 prospect), OF Taylor Trammell (MLB’s No. 57 prospect), OF Josh Naylor, LHP Joey Lucchesi, OF Wil Myers & cash. It was the Padres dumping Wil ‘WAR nil” Myers that made this deal untenable for the Red Sox.

Another rumored trade option was Mookie Betts (& cash) for: C Luis Campusano, OF Manuel Margot & LHP Joey Lucchesi. The problem there was the Padres being asked to give up too much cost-controlled talent for one year of Mookie Betts. Padres GM AJ Preller wisely refused both these scenarios. It’s catching prospect Luis Campusano that everyone wanted from the Padres this winter, after Preller declared top prospects MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patiño & CJ Abrams untouchable.

Sometimes there comes a point where you have to let go of a deal you’ve worked on for a very long time. This is what happened to AJ Preller. He wanted Betts, but more importantly he wanted to dump OF/1B Wil Myers. But that doesn’t mean giving away the farm, and that’s what the Red Sox were demanding. Remember, it’s the Red Sox who had to make a deal. They needed to dump to get under the CBT.

The Dodgers got their superstar for one season, and the Red Sox are now reset on the CBT, so they can go crazy again with payroll next year. Padres GM AJ Preller wanted Mookie Betts, but never lost sight of what was more important. He needs to dump Wil Myers, and therefore has to hold onto enough tradeable talent to make that happen.

If Preller trades for Betts to dump Myers on Red Sox terms, he empties his pool of young talent. That’s not worth one season of superstar production in RF for the Padres. It’s tough to walk away when one is so close, but it’s better than making a bad deal. It’s easier just to bench Wil Myers, and look for another deal. That’s what the 26th man on a roster can be used for now.

Since the Dodgers are in the same division with the Padres, these trades have major NL West ramifications. The Dodgers are again the clear favorite, but they’ve shortened their window of contention with this deal, and added major injury risk in David Price. If they don’t win a World Series in 2020, or if Price needs major surgery, then this deal busted and that’s a tough position to put your franchise in as a GM.

That’s why I don’t like this deal for the Dodgers, but love it as a Padres fan. The Dodgers were already top dogs in the  NL, and didn’t need to take this gamble. They just needed to make the right deal at the July 31 deadline. Andrew Friedman thinks they need help now. Mookie Betts is nice for this season, but David Price is a huge roll of the dice. We’ll see in 2020, and beyond.

The Padres are still much improved this winter. They are at least 10-12 wins better with the moves AJ Preller has made. But the MLB establishment keeps denying Preller the big prize he needs to take the next step up in competitiveness– whether is Shohei Ohtani, Christian Yelich or Mookie Betts. Preller was in on all of these players when they were available, and was in a great position to obtain them all, but got none of them. It’s clear the Padres are expected to give up more than anybody else to get the same player, and AJ Preller doesn’t subscribe to that. That’s why Mookie Betts & David Price ended up with the Dodgers.

Thu 06 Feb 2020 03:00 PM EST

Like the Iowa caucus, this deal has yet to be finalized. Here’s why?

The Red Sox projected hard-throwing righty Brusdar Graterol to be a starter, but now that they’ve seen the Twins medical, they’ve adjusted their projections to him being a reliever. Therefore the Dodgers or Twins [!] have to kick in another prospect, or send money back to Boston. Otherwise the deal is off, and this includes the Dodgers-Angels swap.

This is what it’s like doing business with the Red Sox. Padres GM AJ Preller must be really happy he let it go. Catching prospect Luis Campusano is now untouchable, and the Dodgers have a mess on their hands– either way. I can only imagine what Twins & Angels management are thinking. They thought this was an easy deal for them. Now they’re stuck, while the Red Sox bitch about their return, after their main goal was accomplished in dumping Betts & Price and getting RF Alex Verdugo.

Once again with the Red Sox can’t stop whining, while insisting on cheating everyone. The sports media is in their pocket, so these errors in scouting & evaluation by the Red Sox become an excuse to rescind, or “adjust” a deal they had to make.  Fans are still waiting on their punishment from MLB for sign stealing in 2018. The Red Sox get away with all this, because they are baseball’s equivalent of Joe Biden in politics. Zombies propped up by unlimited cash & idealist nonsense

Here’s my Ken Rosenthal impression on “adjusting” the Mookie Betts-David Price dump. “In a deal of this magnitude, with a lot of pieces moving, there can be glitches. The Red Sox mis-valued a prospect they agreed on, and therefore expect someone else to pay for that mistake. This happens all the time in trades [with the Red Sox].”

What everyone involved (including MLB) needs to tell the Red Sox is: the deal is “as agreed-up,” no changes, otherwise the Red Sox keep Betts & Price. Then what are the Red Sox going to do about getting under the CBT? The organizations involved need to unite and call out this Red Sox media bluff, in order to put an end to these garbage tactics. We’ll see what happens…

…………..<><><><><><><><>…………..

The Mookie Betts salary dump

Posted on by

First & foremost, Red Sox fans need to realize this is a salary dump coming, which they aren’t used to, but is necessary. Ownership has mandated the new GM get under the Competitive Balance Threshold (CBT). The projected CBT in 2020 MLB is estimated to be just under $228M by Cot’s Contracts. Right now the Boston Red Sox have $236M allocated for 2020. Once players report to camp, the payroll checks start going out, so the Sox need to dump soon.

Here’s another rule in MLB trading. When you dump something, the other side gets to do the same. There’s no way Los Angeles Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman gives up young OF Alex Verdugo for one season of Mookie Betts at $27 million. If the Red Sox eat contract to sweeten the deal, then they defeat the purpose of the dump. The other top Dodgers prospects are too steep a price too, so it’s second tier prospects and no MLB players in return concerning any possible deal for Betts to LA. I don’t see it happening.

Zero interest in LHP David Price by the Padres, Dodgers (and everyone else), since it was reported he has calcifications in his left elbow around his Tommy John ligament. Red Sox will eat all the $96 million remaining on that deal, as well as the rest of their overpaid veterans– Sale, Eovaldi & Pedroia. GM’s would have to be talking Devers or Bogaerts to get significant prospect value in return, so no way, right?

This is about the Red Sox taking Padres 1B/OF Wil Myers and doing something with him. Myers could be worth something, but he needs a change of scenery and the discipline of a winning organization like the Red Sox. I say (as a fan) it’s a perfect fit. It’s the only way the Red Sox can get at the Padres young talent, and it’ll be nothing close to their best. That’s what happens when you put yourself in a jam by spending too much, year after year. Eventually you have to take your medicine, and the Padres are there as the only real suitors– I believe.

This burns Red Sox Nation who have hated on the lowly San Diego Padres since “undisclosed anti-inflammatories” in 2016. Ironically, Drew Pomeranz is now back with the Padres– as a reliever. The Red Sox need to get creative with Wil Myers, and find ways to extract value since they’re gonna be stuck with him, the same way the Padres have done/are doing with Pomeranz & so many others.

It sucks for fans when their franchise has to dump their best player one season before free agency. It used to be only the Marlins did stuff like that, but times have caught up to everybody. Give Padres GM AJ Preller credit for being ready to deal when the Red Sox were most desperate. Preller’s got the best available young talent and the deepest pool, so everybody wants to make a deal with him. That’s what ultimately gets this done, I say.

The Dodgers rumors & scenarios are to create a stalking horse in order to gain the Red Sox leverage in negotiations. Padres fans & management have seen this familiar media game, and understand they have to deal with big-time east coast bias here. Those are all the factors in play. I outlined much of this back in December.

This piece was published as the Mookie Betts trade rumors have reached a fever pitch, so we’ll see what happens in the coming days. Most in the industry now feel it is inevitable, because Red Sox ownership has put a gun to their new GM’s head, and this has to be done for a better franchise future. If it’s “no deal” then it was the Wil Myers’ money (and thus his valuation) which was the sticking point.

Apparently at this point, the Red Sox are willing to take on $30M of Myers remaining $68M owed, with only $4M/year counting against the all-important CBT, due to his average annual contract value of $13.8M. The Padres are pushing towards $45M, which means the Red Sox would pay $15M per year on Myers, with only $9M per counting against the CBT for the next 3 years. That’s what the Red Sox have to take on, to get prospects & young talent, for one season of Mookie Betts at $27M. This is a fascinating baseball deal going down, or at least being seriously discussed.

…………<><><><><><><>………..

MLB 2019 Winter Meetings Round-up

Posted on by

Here’s the latest analysis on what’s going on in major league baseball this hot stove season.

MLB is pushing the new Red Sox GM to trade ace lefty David Price to the Angels, only they don’t have the prospects to make it happen. No way the Red Sox deal him to the Yankees. The only teams left with the prospects & payroll flexibility are in the NL– namely the Dodgers & Padres. One of these two teams will end up with David Price, if he’s dealt, which could happen this winter.

David Price is owed $32M/year for the final three seasons of his 7-year deal. The Red Sox need to get under the Luxury Tax threshold of $208M by dealing one of their high-payroll stars. Price is the pitcher everyone covets, and thus the easiest asset to deal. This is where having payroll flexibility and a good farm system pays off for contenders.

The Astros are also interested & able, but the Red Sox view them the same as the Yankees, a team in their league who is ahead of them. You can’t help them get better. Thus, David Price needs to be traded to the NL.

The Nationals just resigned ace RHP Stephen Strasburg, so they are done on starters. The Braves need a true ace to move beyond the Divisional round of the post-season, but do they have they the prospects & ownership approval for such a payroll increase? LHP Cole Hamels is probably not enough.

The Chicago Cubs maxed themselves on payroll with RHP Hu Darvish, and busted. The Milwaukee Brewers don’t have the budget for David Price. Neither have the prospects. The Cardinals are similar to the Giants: old, expensive & mediocre, so no one who is great & wants to win goes there.

In the NL West, the rebuilding Diamondbacks just dealt their ace Zack Greinke to the Astros last July, and aren’t in the market, even though they have the prospects. They may yet deal their best lefty starter Robbie Ray this winter. The Rockies are bloated with payroll, and still too many needs, with few prospects. Besides, pitchers never want to go there. I don’t know if David Price has a no-trade clause.

So it comes down to the Dodgers, who are looking for another ace to keep them ahead of the rest of the NL West; and the Padres who are looking to crash their party by establishing themselves as contenders in 2020. If AJ Preller & the Padres land David Price, they will have done that.

Remember that Dave Dombrowski was fired as Red Sox GM last summer. He was the one who made the Craig Kimbrel deal with Preller, for what turned out to be CF Manny Margot, and three other prospects who washed out, in what was hyped as a steal for the Padres at the time. Kimbrel gave the Red Sox everything he had, until his arm went dead in late 2018. Craig Kimbrel helped them win the World Series that year, which deserves respect & gratitude from every Red Sox fan. It was a fair trade in the end.

The other Dombrowski-Preller deal was the now infamous Drew Pomeranz-Anderson Espinoza deal. Many in the Red Sox Nation howled that Dombrowski had been “ripped off again by the Padres” when this deal was announced in summer 2016. A MLB/ESPN media lynch mob was formed to sanction AJ Preller, for “undisclosed anti-inflammatories” in Drew Pomeranz’s medical history with the Padres, as retribution.

AJ Preller even offered to rescind the deal, and take Drew Pomeranz back, but Dave Dombrowski refused, while the east coast media went into overdrive. This is why AJ Preller was suspended by MLB for a month in 2016. RHP prospect Anderson Espinoza never made it out of the minors, and is currently recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. The Red Sox won that trade too, yet many within the organization still complain.

The fact is, you can’t do business with liars & haters. That’s the Padres perspective. The final irony here is the Padres signing Drew Pomeranz to a 4-year $34M deal this winter, to be an ace set-up man. The only thing that makes David Price to the Padres a possibility now, was the removal of Dave Dombrowski as GM. There are still many in the Red Sox organization who harbor hate for the Padres, for making them look bad in how they have abused their clout with MLB.

The lowest point in the Padres-Red Sox relationship was the “Shohei Ohtani Affair” in which the Boston Red Sox used ESPN/MLB hatchet-man Buster Olney to openly tamper, in order to stop AJ Preller from getting Shohei Ohtani in free agency when he was posted from Japan. That’s how the most coveted Japanese two-way player ever ended up as an Los Angeles Angel.

These are the undercurrents of what’s going on in the David Price trade market. Ace lefties are rare birds, and it’s a better value to get them for 3 years, versus paying for 7-9 years in free agency. It cost teams about the same in average annual value, while limiting the long-term payroll commitment & risk. The Dodgers & Padres are all over this, you can be sure.

What’s going on this hot stove season is remarkable, which is why I’m commenting so extensively. It’s clear that teams are trending more towards being open & honest about their off-season plans. Unsurprisingly, honesty makes it easier for teams to accurately judge the market and make deals, whether it’s trades, free agency, or Rule 5 Draft selections. The 26-man roster creates new possibilities for all 30 teams.

As explained earlier, the good teams with strong farm systems are now making their moves at the Winter Meetings, because they are now clear of Rule 5 Draft considerations. The Nationals re-upped with Stephen Strasburg, and then the Yankee inked Gerrit Cole to a new record-breaking MLB 9/$324M deal a day later.

When each team better understands the other’s interests & position, then teams can reach a comfort level in dealing with each other. Conversely, when one is a arrogant, with more money than brains, then one doesn’t think about the other side when dealing SS Fernando Tatis, Jr for a cooked RHP James Shields. Or RHP Chris Paddack for closer Fernando Rodney.

In the past, many teams took a Red Auerbach (deceptive misdirection) approach to their off-season plans, which doesn’t work in a competitive & balanced league like MLB. That only insults the intelligence of the people you need to do business with in today’s world.

The Padres have been open about their intentions, and have followed through on them. They said they were going to trade players they felt had under-performed; and 2B Luis Urias, LHP Eric Lauer, RF Hunter Renfroe, and a few prospects are now gone.

The players they received in return are better, but more expensive & for shorter team control. Preller is winning deals, but he’s not ripping anyone off. Most of these deals look win-win to me, with teams lining up different needs. Preller is dealing from strength, which is his supply of young controllable MLB talent & interesting prospects.

Unloading OF/1B Wil Myers will be his final order of business before Spring Training. Wil Myers has gone from franchise player to clubhouse problem, and needs a change of scenery. The organization is frustrated with his lack of growth & make-up. He has tantalizing hot streaks, where you see the potential come through, then he falls into a funk for two months or gets hurt.

A rebuilding team may target Wil Myers as a buy-low candidate. The Padres will eat salary (3/$61M remaining) to move him. If they can’t deal him, he’ll likely be a utility player. That has value to the Padres, but is very expensive for their needs. That’s their situation, and AJ Preller hasn’t locked himself into anything. That’s how you fix a mistake, without making the bigger situation worse. Hard work, due diligence & patience.

Wil Myers turned 29 on December 10, and hit .239/.321/.418 in 155 games in 2019. His manager Andy Green was fired near season’s end, in a move meant to shake up the organization. It was the performance of Wil Myers and a few others that cost Andy Green his job. Andy Green was an excellent manager in his nearly 4 seasons with the Padres.

Green was put in impossible situations every year, with a weak roster & no depth. He held the Padres together in 2016, and again in 2017, when Preller traded everything he could to rebuild the system. It paid off for the organization, so it seems unfair that Andy Green isn’t a part of what is already a much better Padres roster. Andy Green certainly deserves another shot in MLB as a manager, with a roster that can win or an organization that requires patience.

Jayce Tingler is the new San Diego Padres skipper, following an established trend of young manager hires, which AJ Preller started when he hired Andy Green, after Bud Black was fired in mid-2015. Tingler is bilingual in Spanish, which is another trend you see in new MLB dugout skippers.

As mentioned, the organizations that are masking their intentions, are being left behind. I see the NY Mets as an example of this. They’ve spent so much time waffling back-and-forth on trading RHP Noah Syndergaard, finally stating after the World Series that he’s “off the market,” that they clearly had no “Plan B.” The Mets get a compensation pick from the Philadelphia Phillies for signing free agent RHP Zack Wheeler.

The Mets took forever to hire Carlos Beltran as their new manager, whom everyone loves, but he can only do so much with this roster. They aren’t making big splashes like they did last winter, after it blew up in their face. But they don’t seem to be hunting for mid-level free agent upgrades, or looking to make any serious trades either. They’re hoping for rebound years & better health from what they have.

A wish isn’t a plan. That’s my favorite Herman Edwards (NFL player/head coach/analyst) saying. The Mets have acquired platoon CF Jake Marsnick from the Astros for two prospects. Neither were on their Top 30 list, but they keep making these deals, and are running out of organizational depth. With all the holes they have on their roster, and no ownership commitment for a significant payroll increase, no MLB team is more caught in “no man’s land” than the New York Mets.

I’ve read more than a few articles on MLB’s site (& elsewhere) which cite an “un-named AL executive” and “un-named NL executive” in their analysis. I take this as Yankees GM Brian Cashman & Padres GM AJ Preller. Those are the two sharks running the MLB talent acquisition market this winter. These two teams made their intentions clear, and have followed through, and that sets the market.

Much of the top talent is now off the board, and that helps the free agent market move along. The lessons to players & agents is: when it’s your turn, don’t dick around. The market will make its best offer, and if you don’t take it, they will move on and leave you behind. Draft pick compensation matters, as free agents Mike Moustakis, Dallas Keuchel & Craig Kimbrel all learned the hard way.

The Rule 5 Draft will happen tomorrow morning, and there will be an update here. The Yankees were one team that needed to add 6-8 prospects to its 40 man roster to avoid them being taken in the Rule 5 Draft. That’s why they waited until the Winter Meetings to sign Gerrit Cole.

Among the Padres prospects left unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft were: Esteury Ruiz, Buddy Reed, Trevor Megill, Dauris Valdez and Michael Gettys. None are anything close to MLB ready, and are more like organizational depth, so selecting any one of these players means sacrificing a MLB roster spot for a season, for a long-shot.

With analytics and obsession over young talent, it’s harder to hit on this Rule 5 lottery than in the past. The point is that the San Diego Padres have the best farm system, and the New York Yankees are they deepest organization– and both left very little available.

The final storyline leaving the Winter Meetings is that if you haven’t helped yourself by now, it’s probably too late, as most of the top talent is already gone, as bargains are few in that market. After 3B Anthony Rendon signs, what’s left is second-tier talent– starting with LHP Madison Bumgarner. He’ll be the top QO free agent left, followed by 3B Josh Donaldson who declined Atlanta’s QO. Everyone needs pitching, and Josh Donaldson still puts up numbers, so they’ll both probably sign soon.

It’s OF Marcell Ozuna who may be the one frozen out this winter. The age-29 slugging outfielder declined his qualifying offer from the Cardinals. The Cards still want him back, but at less money. No one else seems to be interested. He’s too similar to Wil Myers, and thus not worth losing the draft pick to every other team outside of St. Louis. Padres GM AJ Preller’s desire to move Wil Myers dramatically affects the market for Marcell Ozuna and all other free agent sluggers.

The hottest markets are starting pitching, relief pitching, and then catching. Organizations now understand catching as a tandem, meaning there needs to be depth at that position. That’s why all the best catchers were quickly signed (or acquired in trade) as free agency opened. More importantly, catching is now understood to be an extension of the pitching staff, so defense really matters. Twenty-six man rosters in 2020 means some teams will go with three catchers.

Teams in need are looking for players that will give them 2+ WAR at a position in free agency. According to MLB’s 2019 metrics among position players: only LF Marcell Ozuna (age 29, 2.6 WAR); CF Brett Gardner (age 36, 3.5 WAR); RF’s Nicholas Castellanos (age 28, 2.8 WAR) & Kole Calhoun (age 32, 2.5 WAR); DH Edwin Encarnación (age 37, 2.5 WAR); 2B Eric Sogard (age 34, 2.6 WAR); and catcher Robinson Chirinos (age 36, 2.3 WAR) meet those qualifications. Note that most of them are old, so none of them will get lucrative long-term deal. Look for the younger players, with better futures to get the better free agent deals.

RHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (age 33, 4.8 WAR), LHP Madison Bumgarner (age 30, 3.2 WAR), and RHP Homer Bailey (age 34, 2.9 WAR) are the only free agent starting pitchers with a 2+ WAR in 2019. Lots of age & mileage on these arms, which is what makes them second-tier. Still, it’s pitching so it should move along, as long as egos don’t get out of control.

It’s when a Craig Kimbrel type of talent brings unrealistic expectations to the market, that things get messed up. Remember Kimbrel wanted 5/$85M or something crazy like that last year, when he was QO-tagged by the Red Sox, who didn’t want him back. After sitting out until the June Draft, and then signing with the Cubs, he was a disaster.

The Cubs re-upped with him at 3/$43M this winter, which doesn’t sound like a winning move for the Northsiders, but now we at least know what Craig Kimbrel is worth in free agency. The few known relievers who could help contenders were snatched up early, and what’s left is a crapshoot. That’s the second-tier reliever market.

No one in MLB wanted a repeat of last winter (or the winter before), where star players & their agents were holding up the market. It appears teams & free agent players/agents have come to an understanding on how the market is to work. This is the primary reason star players have moved much more quickly this hot stove season. It has been largely fan analysis & player push back on this, which has fueled this step forward.

Final Update: Wed 11 Dec 2019 11:35 PM EST

My timing is uncanny, as just after publishing on Wednesday ~6 PM EST, a flood of lower-tier free agent signings occurred as the Winter Meetings wrapped up in San Diego.

Dodgers have deal with righty reliever Blake Treinen (report): 1/$10M
Mets, Wacha agree to deal (source): MLB Network insider Joel Sherman reports Wacha will receive $3 million guaranteed with $7 million possible in incentives
Roark, Blue Jays agree to deal (source): 2/$24M
Crew has deal with KBO MVP Lindblom (source): 3/$9.125M for an age-32 starting RHP

Analysis: This is bullpen desperation for the Dodgers, and back-of-the-rotation rotation filler for the rest, with age-33 RHP Tanner Roark being the most obvious overpay by the Toronto Blue Jays– who are going nowhere. This is an example of the difference between trying to compete, and giving fans the illusion of trying to compete.

Later in the evening, it was reported by MLB that 3B Anthony Rendon agreed to a seven-year, $245 million deal with the Angels.

Analysis: The LA Angels needed to make a splash and improve themselves, and this helps. Unfortunately, they still have no pitching past Shohei Ohtani, who is coming off Tommy John surgery and will surely have innings limits. A six-man rotation is their plan, so they need at least two more quality starting pitchers after acquiring RHP Dylan Bundy from the Orioles.

Even better if they get three, because Dylan Bundy stinks. The problem is quality starters don’t exist in free agency anymore, as the Yanks & Nats ate them up. Look for the Halos to throw desperate money at big-name free agent pitchers, after they fail to land David Price. CF Mike Trout is still the best player in baseball, and he is worth the extension; but 1B/DH Albert Pujols is their franchise albatross since Josh Hamilton’s contract expired in 2017. OF Justin Upton ain’t no bargain either.

Final NL Winter Meeting Wrap-up: There have been a few head-scratchers already, none more than the Miami Marlins, who lost 105 games in 2019, acquiring 2B Jonathan Villar on December 2 from the Baltimore Orioles, after he was non-tendered due to his cost in arbitration, which will be ~$10M in 2020. This replaces 2B Starlin Castro who departs as a free agent, after being the lone MLB return in the Giancarlo Stanton salary dump to the Yankees.

Jonathan Villar is set to be a free agent after 2021, so he is an expensive rental which cost the last place Marlins a lefty pitching prospect. It won’t move them out of last place, and Villar can’t be flipped for more value, so I don’t understand what the Marlins are doing here and I’m not alone.

Righty rotation filler Jordan Yamamoto is the best player the Marlins received for MVP LF Christian Yelich to the Brewers. Top prospect in the deal CF Lewis Brinson is a bust. Twenty-four year old CF prospect Monte Harrison is a bust too. It’s also how quickly (& predictably) they busted which is very alarming to Fish fans. A bunch of nothing for Christian Yelich and his long, team friendly contract.

RHP Sandy Alcantra LHP & Zac Gallen are nice rotation pieces, as the Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis deal was by far their best trade of this teardown, their third or fourth firesale in franchise history going all the way back to 1993. Second baseman Dee Gordon was a salary dump to Seattle, and nothing materialized from the fringy prospects they acquired.

Catcher JT Realmuto was the last All-Star Derek Jeter & Mike Hill dealt, and he apparently netted a decent return from the Phillies. Catcher Jorge Alfaro is adequate and cost controllable, while prized young righty starter Sixto Sanchez is now a top-20 MLB pipeline prospect. The Phillies got an All-star catcher for a lot of years, so they already “won” this deal on their end. How Sixto Sanchez develops determines if the Marlins “win” their end of the deal, as everything else is now knowable. In summary, the Marlins gave away two MVP’s for nothing, and only acquired quality players in the Marcell Ozuna deal, and possibly the JT Realmuto deal.

The Cincinnati Reds keep making noise like they are players, when all they really have to be excited about is 3B Eugenio Suárez & young RHP Luis Castillo, whom they received from the Marlins for meatball pitcher Dan Strally in January 2017. Luis Castillo had previously been traded to the Padres for RHP Colin Rea in the Andrew Cashner deal on July 29, and then back on August 1, 2016, and this is perhaps the most infamous deal in AJ Preller trade lore.

The Reds were the beneficiary of all that foolishness as the traumatized & confused Marlins front office dealt Luis Castillo again a few months later. The tragic end of Colin Rea’s MLB career was the Marlins’ ugly unspoken organizational shame. When ace RHP Jose Fernandez was tragically killed in a boating accident a few weeks later, the Marlins fate was doomed. Soon after, longtime owner & new stadium swindler Jeffery Loria sold the Marlins for a billion dollars in profit, and Project Wolverine was implemented by new ownership.

Getting back to the Reds who have a history of never developing enough quality starters, they have gone the trade route to acquire a respectable rotation, maybe their best ever and this franchise has been in existence since 1869. Ex-Yankee RHP Sonny Gray has been extended through 2023 at an affordable cost, but RHP Trevor Bauer will be a free agent after 2020. The Reds are still a frontline pitched or two short, with big holes in their line-up. The Joey Votto extension ($25M per year 2020-2023, plus a $7M buyout) is their albatross.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been forced into the second-tier of free agency in 2020, after splashing with RHP Jake Arrieta & RF Bryce Harper the past two winters. Those signings already look bad, and it’s still early, which is scary if you are a Phillies fanatic. RHP Zack Wheeler (5/$118M) is their last plunge, and it better pay off, otherwise the Phils are sunk.

They may be sunk even if Wheeler pitches well, as their roster has too many holes in their line-up, rotation & bullpen. Didi Gregorius (1/$11.75M) at SS is risky & an overpay, which is hard to accomplish with a one-year deal, yet the Phils managed to do it. Very poor planning & money management in Philadelphia already has them near the $208M Luxury Tax threshold. They went for it before they were actually ready, and now they are stuck in the middle. Bryce Harper is their albatross.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are the last NL team to discuss. Once again, they are trading their top veteran player, this time it’s CF Starling Marte, who is age-31 and has two years of team control remaining at $24M. The last place Pirates won’t get much for him, and would do best to keep him, but recall this is the organization that traded ace RHP Gerrit Cole to Houston two years ago. Historically, this is the organization that let Barry Bonds walk. The Marlins are the worst team in the NL, with the Pirates not far ahead of them. With the fall of the Cubs, the NL Central is now the weakest division in the senior circuit.

After coveted 3B Josh Donaldson signs, there will be very few impact players left in free agency who can move the needle on any of this. It’s pitching that everyone needs. The challenge, especially for AL teams like the Rays & A’s, is to identify & sign this year’s Charlie Morton. The AL is tougher on pitchers because of the DH. Therefore the AL’s best & brightest GM’s take the top pitchers first, and leave the leftovers for the NL.

Since LHP Madison Bumgarner garners no interest from the Yankees, Astros or Rays, he has diminished value to their competitors. Notice how they weren’t interested in Zack Wheeler either. A mid-level NL team, or desperate AL team will make Madison Bumgarner (and his like) the best offers in the coming weeks of free agency. But it’s actual performance which drives wins in MLB, and it’s mostly diminishing futures for old starters. This much we know, and the rest will play out and reveal itself next season.

Many top teams don’t stick around for the Rule 5 Draft, as they aren’t making selections. Therefore this writer is also signing off on the 2019 Winter Meetings, because there is no Josh Hamilton available. Here’s a MLB preview of the Rule 5 Draft, and I’ll let readers figure the results out for themselves.

…………….<><><><><><><><><>……………

MLB Trade Deadline Notes

Posted on by

Postscript: Thu 01 Aug 2019 01:16 PM EDT

The only blockbusters of this year’s MLB Trade Deadline were the Zack Greinke & Jake Bauer deals. Both were for controllable, elite starting pitchers, which is what wins the World Series. Houston won this Deadline as a buyer, by getting Greinke for 2+ years which means 3 play-off runs. Jake Bauer is only signed through 2020, and the Reds aren’t a play-off team, so they lose. The San Diego Padres won that 3-way deal, by acquiring the best prospect dealt this trade season, while only giving up a young, cost-controlled slugger– of which they had a surplus. Taylor Trammell is in AA, and has star make-up & tools in CF.

Besides me, only AJ Cassavell, the beat writer for the Padres on MLB.com has reported these facts & goings-on accurately. Only prospect guru Keith Law correctly called this as a big win for the Padres. As outlined below, most ESPN & MLB head writers are too biased to provide any objectivity or clarity on what occurred. They represent fake news in sports.

Once again, San Diego Padres GM AJ Preller pulled off the biggest deal of the MLB Trade Deadline. Cleveland’s RHP Jake Bauer was the best value pitcher who moved this trade season, and San Diego landing center-fielder Taylor Trammell from Cincinnati was the best prospect. That’s the name of the game when you are a seller– get the best prospect(s).

AJ Preller did it again, as the Padres receive lefty-hitting CF prospect (#30 MLB pipeline) Taylor Trammell (below) from Cincinnati. The Reds get Trevor Bauer from Cleveland. The Indians get OF Yasiel Puig & LHP Scott Moss from Cincinnati; OF Franmil Reyes, LHP Logan Allen & A-level 3B prospect Victor Nova from San Diego.

It only cost the Padres slugger Franmil Reyes, who slots better as a DH in the AL. Padres have depth in the corner outfield with Hunter Renfroe having a similar profile and being better defensively. Wil Myers has been benched due to poor performance, with a near-40% strikeout rate. He will now get more starts again, which is needed, but Myers is an expensive problem. The San Diego Padres will have to eat contract to move him, and I imagine he was brought up in proposed trade discussions by Preller. The Padres are again stuck with Wil Myers, and expect him to perform better, otherwise he’ll be benched again. They still have CF’s Franchy Cordero & Travis Jankowski as in-house outfield options.

At this point, I will admit that I was wrong about the famous Wil Myers–Steven Souza Jr–Trea Turner deal. AJ Preller gave up the best player, but it was justifiable. He was looking for a franchise player, and Wil Myers had that potential as a former minor league player-of-the-year. Turner has a more limited upside and is an injury risk due to his style. Trea Turner was the best Padres prospect Preller inherited when he took over as GM in August 2014. The Padres farm system was ranked dead last in MLB. Five years later it is #1, by far. This is one of his few mistakes, but it wasn’t too costly.

Trea Turner currently has 11.0 WAR to Wil Myers 9.7 according the baseball reference, so it wasn’t a huge loss, but still the Padres would be better with SS/2B Trea Turner than OF/1B Will Myers. Turner is two years younger. It’s a gamble AJ Preller lost, and that will happen when you have to turn everything over as the new GM of a sad-sack franchise that has never won anything.

General managers in MLB are judged by their colleagues not in terms of straight “wins & losses” on each deal, but in the aggregate. Actions need to coordinate with overall objectives that improve the organization’s chances of winning a World Series– either this year or in the near future. In these terms with the Padres it’s always the future, but now the future is closer than ever. Each year that AJ Preller can continue to acquire the best prospects, the longer and more open the Padres “window of contention” becomes.

AJ Preller played this deadline beautifully– AGAIN. By that I mean for the 4th year running. Since his legendary performance in 2016, when he acquired SS Fernando Tatis, Jr & RHP Chris Paddack for stale beans to the White Sox & Marlins, AJ Preller has been the leading GM in MLB. He locks up the trade market these days, because he has what every other team covets– top prospects in numbers at all levels.

AJ Preller has that blend of “scout’s eye” for baseball, along with analytic understanding of what it takes to win. He has an owner with deep pockets, who will spend on whatever AJ Preller needs. Every trade deadline, or hot stove season now seems to begin with, “Who can make a deal with AJ Preller for some of his top prospects?” But it never happens. Preller and Padres beat writer AJ Cassavell played this Trade Deadline beautifully, by downplaying & stringing the Mets along on Noah Syndergaard (below) trade rumors, all of which came straight from New York.

For the record, the Padres have acknowledged they would love to add Noah Syndergaard to their rotation, but not at the price the Mets ask. Keep in mind it’s the Mets & the east coast media who have been pushing a Thor deal to the Padres for at least 18 months now. Last year I recall it was SS Fernando Tatis, Jr and a few pitching prospects, Chris Paddack, Cal Quantrill, etc. for the mighty Mets hurler. That was the Mets proposal, or something like that…

Unfortunately Thor contracted Hand Foot & Mouth disease around the 2018 deadline, which killed any idea of that deal. The Mets & company tried again this past winter, but Preller decided to go with his young arms, until it’s time to get a real ace. A good GM goes into that acquisition mode when his team is a threat to win the World Series, which the Padres aren’t in 2019.

Nevertheless, the Mets went hard after the Padres farm system again this Trade Deadline, demanding MLB players & prospects this time around for their superhero pitcher with an 2019 ERA over 4.00. Top hitting prospect 2B Luis Urias & CF Manny Margot were floated in the NY/ESPN media, but there was no way AJ Preller was dealing either of them for 2+ years of Syndergaard. How about ace pitching prospects Mackenzie Gore or Luis Patino? These wishful speculations reflecting extreme east coast bias hooked the NY sports media. Preller & his media team fed them enough to remain hopeful, in order to keep them occupied, while he consummated his three-team deal with Cleveland & Cincinnati.

The Amazin’ Mess

So what are the Mets doing? Acquiring RHP Marcus Stroman from the Blue Jays for their top pitching prospects three days earlier was a head-scratcher. Was it to flip him? Why did the Mets keep Stroman from the NY media until after the trade deadline? How can the Mets expect to flip a pitcher they just acquired, for more than they paid, with only three days with which to do it? Doesn’t make any sense, but these are the Mets, so anything is possible.

Of course the industry responded by collectively sitting on their hands, while the clock expired on the Mets. So much for that idea. Stroman now can’t be traded until after the season, making him less valuable. The people running this Amazin’ Mess, behave similarly to those at the Federal Reserve who believe they can will things to happen– through hype & fiat.

The Mets still have too many expensive starting pitchers, for a team that sits in 4th place in the lackluster (over-rated) NL East. Their bullpen is a disaster, offense inconsistent, and defense one of the worst in MLB. Being in the same division as the Miami Marlins keeps them out of last place, while inflating their deluded expectations. This team has no chance of winning in the post-season, yet they are trying to spin their inability to deal Noah Syndergaard (and the rest) for a boatload of top prospects, as a commitment to “winning in 2019.” And people wonder where fake news comes from, and why it exists.

After the Marcus Stroman acquisition, the Mets traded starter Jason Vargas to the Phillies for 26-yo AA catcher Austin Bossart, to compensate for dealing away their two best pitching prospects. I have no idea what the Mets are doing, but what ever it is, it’s going to fail badly. These deals have no chance of turning out well in the short term, or long term.

By mid-day Wednesday, July 31, 2019, the MLB “Trade Talk” headlines led with “Mets pull Thor off trade market (source).” Noah Syndergaard pitched 7 innings last night against the White Sox in Chicago giving up one run, unearned, in a no-decision the Mets won. Syndergaard in 2019: 7-5, 4.10 ERA in 134.0 IP. That’s not an ace, but his stuff is good enough to be priced as a #2 starter with two years of team-control remaining.

The problem is the Mets publicly value Thor as an ace, when in 5 years he’s never pitched 200 innings in a season. Noah Syndergaard is a huge injury risk, and the Mets have a reputation for mishandling pitching. You can not get the NY media/Mets management to admit to any of these facts, nor rationally discuss what they mean.

An analogy that personifies Mets management in this situation is the high school boy who boasts he will only take the prettiest girl to prom. He arrogantly claims he is the stud on the market, and any girl should be honored to be his date. Of course, it’s human nature to reject such chutzpah. So when prom day arrives, and our self-acclaimed Don Juan still has no date, he proclaims to take himself off the market, because he didn’t receive an acceptable offer. All his loser buddies (ESPN, etc) prop him up, as group-think rules in this crowd.

The Mets think they are stockpiling pitching, for when it becomes a “seller’s market.” The problem is that markets move on, and the Mets are stuck with devaluing assets they don’t need, can’t afford, and can’t get return value in trade– due to their own incompetence & intransigence.

Trade Deadline Conclusions

The second Wild Card has changed the MLB Trade Deadline significantly, to the point where 1) there is just one deadline, July 31; and 2) the fact that so many teams remain in contention that it’s hard to determine who is (and who should be) buying or selling. The San Francisco Giants were out of contention a month ago, but have become hot since. Therefore they aren’t trading their ace LHP Madison Bumgarner. The second wild card is within reach.

It’s the right move to hold on, because the Giants wouldn’t get fair value for him anyways. The ace pitching market values prospects above rentals. Expect the Giants to offer Bumgarner a qualifying offer (QO) in November, and it will be interesting to see if he accepts. It will be ~$18M for one year. If MadBum declines, he could end up like Astros LHP Dallas Keuchel, who had to wait until the following June amateur draft for the draft pick compensation to expire for him to sign a fair “free agent” deal.

I haven’t published on MLB since relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel & starter Dallas Keuchel signed with the Cubs & Braves in June. Here’s the bottom line. Kimbrel is toast, and the Red Sox knew it. Kimbrel still got a 3/$43 from the Cubs, which is another disaster free agent overpay for the northsiders. So far in 2019 Kimbrel is: 0-2, 6.75 ERA in 10.2 IP.

LHP Dallas Keuchel signed with the Braves on June 7 for 1/$13, and is 3-4, 3.86 ERA in 49 IP so far. As you can see, the Braves did better here, but still Dallas Keuchel isn’t anything that moves the needle significantly towards them winning a World Series. That’s why teams didn’t want to give up the draft pick to sign either of these pitchers. That’s the risk a free agent takes these days when he declines a QO. The rule is: you need to be worth MUCH more than that pick to decline, otherwise accept, and become a unrestricted free agent next year. Otherwise the QO-tagged player will get squeezed in free agency. A player can only be made a QO once.

RHP Hyun-Jin Ryu of the Los Angeles Dodgers is an example of someone who understood this situation correctly and is now set for his payday, because he was patient and willing to play one more year at $18 million, in order to become a true free agent next year. Ryu didn’t have to wait out suitors that weren’t calling this past winter like Keuchel, Kimbrel and so many others. Maybe that’s why Hyun-Jin Ryu is having a career year, just when he needs one. It’s like he planned it.

Frontline starters Robbie Ray, Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard, Zach Wheeler, etc were all rumored to be available, and they all stayed put. The fact is all these pitchers have more value to their teams than what they would net in trade return, due to their contracts and/or 2019 performance.

In a last-minute Trade Deadline blockbuster, the Astros acquired Diamondbacks ace RHP Zack Greinke for 1B/OF Seth Beer (Astros’ No. 3 prospect, per MLB Pipeline), right-hander J.B. Bukauskas (No. 4), righty Corbin Martin (No. 5) and infielder Josh Rojas (No. 22). Houston receives $24 million as part of the deal. Greinke has two more years at $35M/year on his contract. The Houston Astros are a smart organization trying to win it again, and this is how you do it. Notice that they held on to their top prospect OF Kyle Tucker. The best GM’s are the ones who can declare certain players & prospects untouchable, and still make deals.

Outside of Stroman, Bauer & Greinke it was the likes of innings-eaters such as Tanner Roark, Daniel Hudson Aaron Sanchez & Drew Pomeranz that led the list of pitchers moved at the deadline. The market had already been set by the Jake Bauer-Taylor Trammell trade, and few teams were willing to or capable of making that kind of deal. That’s why movement in the trade market was so limited.

The truth is that the Mets & Reds had no business obtaining these starters, for what they gave up. These are two 4th-place teams, giving up valuable prospects for one-year pitcher rentals. The Mets decided to make a splash & crapped out, while the Indians & Padres needed a third team to take on Jake Bauer to make their deal. The Reds were there, and they’ll probably be in 4th place next July, shopping Jake Bauer before he leaves as a free agent. That isn’t planning, it’s impulsive buying.

Relievers were also capped by AJ Preller in the form of Kirby Yates (above), the best closer available. For the past two seasons it was Brad Hand. This time, no one made an acceptable offer, so there was no deal for the Padres ace closer. The market followed by going after lower-end relievers at the finish. Lots of middle relievers, bench players, PTBNL & international slot money was exchanged, but few impact players or pitchers. That was the story of this MLB trade season.

………………….<><><><><><><><><>………………..

Manny Machado Signs Record Free Agent Deal with the Padres

Posted on by

This didn’t seem possible a few weeks back, but in the end the San Diego Padres have signed the biggest MLB free-agent prize of this winter. Manny Machado is a SS, but will soon move to 3B when top prospect Fernando Tatis, Jr (acquired James Shields to White Sox) arrives sometime in 2019. Along with prospect hitting-machine 2B Luis Urias, the Padres have a good infield that will be under team control through at least 2022.

Their current outfield mix is young and has upside, with legit prospects in the minors. All their stud pitching is in the minors, and the first wave is set to arrive in 2019. RHP Chris Paddack (Fernando Rodney to the Marlins), & LHP Logan Allen (Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox) will get their first opportunities in 2019.

The Machado signing signals the Padres will be aggressive in bringing their young pitchers up. The Padres haven’t made any free-agent pitching acquisitions in the off season, starter or reliever, that will pitch for them in 2019. The signal is that they believe in their young talent and are ready to promote their top performers to Petco. Padres fans have never seen anything like this in franchise history: a fertile farm system, along with ownership that spends on free agent talent as needed. In the last two off seasons, the Padres have signed the 2 richest free agents: 1B Eric Hosmer $144M last winter, and now SS/3B Manny Machado for 10 years, $300M.

Note that all the arguments & protests made by veteran MLB players & know-nothing media pundits over “collusion,” have now fallen to the wayside. There is no collusion in modern MLB free agency. There is only MLBPA stupidity & blindness, by agreeing to a system that will only reward the biggest stars, and freeze out the rest. Outspoken players should re-direct their anger towards those who agreed to this rotten CBA deal. The word is RF Bryce Harper is about to sign a deal with the Phillies. Whether it is more or less than Machado’s deal is irrelevant, next to the bigger point, which is that no one else will get anything close to what these two get.

Lefty starter Dallas Keuchel & righty reliever Craig Kimbrel remain available, and can be had for a song. The reason they are still available is because they probably don’t have much left, and are high-risk signings that also cost a high draft pick. That’s the value killer. Impending free agents (who aren’t superstars) that are made qualifying offers, need to start taking them.

A player can only be offered a QO once, so by accepting, they become unrestricted free agents the next winter. Otherwise, they’re taking less money under this system. Both Keuchel & Kimbrel refused a $17.9M qualifying offer (QO) offer by their clubs last November. This isn’t collusion, it’s lack of understanding by the MLB players, MLBPA bureaucrats & their agents.

Keuchel won’t get a multi-year deal that matches the AAV of his QO, and Kimbrel probably won’t even get $10M on a 1-year deal at this point. The Red Sox have said they can’t afford him, as he puts them over the luxury tax threshold, which means his salary would cost ~50% more (in MLB penalty taxes) if the Red Sox re-sign him. That’s the only team that doesn’t lose a pick if they sign him, saying they won’t sign him. So who wants him? Answer: No one who spends big money on a closer.

Kimbrel & his agent should have seen this early, and lowered their demands. Now it’s too late, and Kimbrel is at the mercy of the market full of hungry vultures who missed out on the real prizes, and are now bargain shopping. The 6/$80M deal Craig Kimbrel was seeking has not materialized, and now he’ll have to take whatever he can get– just like the rest of the remaining free agents. Those non-superstar free agents who signed early (generally speaking) got the best deals. Those who held out, got left behind. So when the Twins, etc, come a-calling with their low-ball offers, remaining free-agents better be ready to sign.

Pitchers & catchers have been in camp for a week, and by now all the signed players have reported too. When Bryce Harper’s signing is soon announced, every other unsigned free agent officially moves into panic mode. They have to sign and get to camp, otherwise they risk losing the season to someone else who took their spot, simply because they said “Yes” to an offer as the available jobs ran out. That’s the way teams are with veteran free agents these days, and it’s called hardball moneyball.

Remember that Harper & Machado are both age 26, which means they are young and in their prime. They both have Hall-of-Fame arcs, so every franchise that wants to win is seeking to add them. This market fell to the Padres because so many teams have already maxed-out their payrolls. The Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs & Dodgers are big market heavyweights that weren’t in on either superstar this winter. Why? Because they all have high payrolls, and can’t afford either Harper or Machado.

I’m not saying 10 years, $300 million is a bargain (it’s actually crazy money), but I will say that not having any of those 4 aforementioned teams involved kept the cost down, if that seems possible. That’s the only way the Padres were able to get precisely the superstar they needed. Until this deal, it was Ty France at 3B for the Padres.

This adds 5-6 wins to the Padres in 2019, and makes the Fernando Tatis, Jr. transition to the majors a much easier process. Any time you can add a HoFer in his prime to your team, it’s a good move. Especially when you’ve planned so you can afford it. The was a brilliant campaign by Padres GM AJ Preller, who has done it again. What looked like a quiet (but dominant) winter for him, turned into his biggest coup yet. No one seriously thought the Padres would get Manny Machado– myself included. Ownership support is crucial, and anyone can see that management is leading, with ownership on the same page, which is what you want as a fan.

I am a Padres fan, so I’m now officially excited for 2019. I had heard the Machado rumors in the wind, and dreamed on it for a bit, but never took it too seriously– and neither did anyone else. Only a few weeks back, did the buzz start to become more focused on the Padres, who also met with Bryce Harper. The Padres did a great job of staying under-the-radar, and then striking when the time was right, getting exactly the player they needed.

Evidentially, Manny Machado didn’t like the White Sox or the Phillies as much, which says something, because both teams needed him. In the case of the White Sox, it’s the fact that they’re going to be bad for awhile which is the turn-off. For the Phillies, I see them as an organization that can’t make up their mind on what they really need, because you can’t sign both. The Phillies seemed to believe they could. Only the Yankees can do that, and they don’t anymore, as even they have limits.

The Phillies are now the favorites to sign Bryce Harper, as they need him the most (which means they’ll spend the most) among the remaining suitors. They signed RHP Jake Arrieta late last spring to 3/$75M, and the first year was a disappointment, as his ERA was near 4.00, and he faded down the stretch. This team has good young pitchers, but have too many holes to fill. Harper will help them, of course, but he maxes them out on payroll, while still leaving too many positions at replacement level. That’s why the Phillies signing Harper, won’t mean as much as the Padres signing Machado. When you sign a free-agent for this much money, he has to fulfill all your needs, otherwise it will be an overpay and/or bust. Those are the hard lessons of MLB free agency.

San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy (above) announced this would be his last season the other day. He’s won 3 World Series managing the Giants. Bochy lost one (1998 to NYY) as the skipper of the Padres from 1995-2006. He never should have been fired, but the Friars had unstable ownership & constantly-changing management back then. He’s still one of the best, but his team is old. The Padres 2019 win projection before the Machado signing was 76, meaning the NL West is (again) the toughest division in the senior circuit.

……………<><><><><><><><>…………..

Padres & the MLB Trade Deadline Breakdown

Posted on by

If you’ve been through a few MLB Trade deadlines (and I have), then you know this is a feeding frenzy. You have two sub-sets of teams; those trading away MLB assets for prospects & young talent, and those competitive teams acquiring winning MLB talent. Everyone is trying to improve themselves, whether the focus is on this October, or the future. The most-coveted MLB asset for championship contenders is top-tier relief pitching, as that’s what October baseball comes down to. Who can get those crucial final outs from their bullpen?

The most coveted return for sellers are top prospects: top-100 MLB prospects, top organizational prospects, top pitching prospects, top left-handed pitching prospects, etc. Position players are added for depth, and to plug holes, but they don’t move the needle towards winning like relief pitching or front-line starters.

The fascinating (and mostly unmentioned) thing about this trade deadline is that Padres GM AJ Preller held aces on both ends of this spectrum, and once again exerted influence & control over the trade market. He dealt coveted lefty closer Brad Hand (and righty set-up guy Adam Cimber) on July 19, 2018 to Cleveland, in return for C Francisco Mejia, their top prospect– ~15th overall in MLB. The Padres needed a catcher, as Austin Hedges is elite defensively, but isn’t the everyday answer. Hedges is an elite caddy in a catching tandem. Padres won’t be dealing Mejia, you can be sure.

As the above screenshot indicates, Francisco Mejia currently ranks 3rd in the Padres stacked farm system– behind SS Fernando Tatis, Jr. and LHP Mackenzie Gore. The list of talent in this top-12 is the envy of MLB. There are more-than-a-few teams in MLB who don’t have a single player in their farm system that is better than any of the Padres top-12 prospects. This represents championship level talent at bargain basement salary, which means you can keep it together. Every savvy GM & organized front office understands that.

This is what put the San Diego Padres in the RHP Chris Archer trade conversation. Any GM of a last-place team needs to look at ways to improve their starting pitching. AJ Preller did this, but what the Rays wanted in return was too high a price. Besides, Chris Archer isn’t an ace. He’s a valuable #2 starter on championship NL roster, and a #3 in the AL.

AJ Preller knows you don’t give up the farm for that, especially at this point in their competitive cycle. Padres don’t need to pay Archer’s (affordable) salary either. So what was Preller doing? He was doing what any good GM in his advantageous position should do, test the market and get an idea of how other organizations value your prospects. It turns out that rival GM’s value Padres prospects very highly. More reason to hold onto them.

There was non-stop speculation from the MLB/ESPN driven media, that the Mets were going to deal their “aces.” Let’s back up for a moment here. First, the only ace the Mets currently have is RHP Jacob deGrom, and the Mets have said repeatedly they don’t want to trade him, unless it’s an offer that’s over-the-top and they can’t refuse. Nothing of the sort was ever presented.

Somehow by mentioning a deGrom trade possibility through the media, the Mets front office reasoned that would make RHP’s Noah Syndergaard (above pic) & Zack Wheeler appear more valuable. It doesn’t work that way with astute GM’s. Let’s examine the true trade value here.

The best pitcher the Mets actually had available was Syndergaard. The problem is he never stays healthy, and he just went on the DL again, this time with hand, foot & mouth (HF&M) disease. HF&M disease is a viral infection, that wipes you out– similar to mononucleosis or hepatitis. No team wants to bring a carrier of a contagious disease into their clubhouse. Yet the MLB/ESPN sports media kept trying to push a trade possibility, and it (curiously) was often linked to the Padres, as they have the prospects to make it happen.

The media also underplayed the causes of HF&M disease, which is poor hygiene, not washing your hands, etc. A responsible MLB GM can’t blow that off as incidental. It says something about who that person is, and their intellect. Unlike a bone fracture or muscle/ligament tear; this could wipe out an entire clubhouse– for a month or more!

The kid may have talent, but his head is a huge question mark, along with the Mets medical staff. Therefore Noah Syndergaard is definitely not worth the gamble of trading away the farm system to obtain. The Padres would rather keep top LHP prospect Mackenzie Gore, and that’s what AJ Preller did.

Zack Wheeler was endlessly floated over the past few weeks as a starter that could help a contender. He’s viewed by GM’s as a #4/5 guy- so that was a non-starter. Wheeler was the beneficiary of possibly the worst umpiring decision in the history of MLB, in a recent start against the Padres at Citi Field.

This trade deadline was most cruel to the New York Mets, who are currently 44-59, sitting 4th in the NL East with a bad farm system, and unable to trade any of their best starters for the prospects they so desperately needed. The Mets team owner is bankrupt, so winter free-agent splashes are probably not an option. That’s an Amazing Mess.

As mentioned, all the serious focus up to the deadline (outside of Chris Archer) was on top-tier relievers. AJ Preller still held the best cards in this market, even after dealing Brad Hand. Reliever Kirby Yates (1.60 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP) is controllable through 2020, and Craig Stammen has a 2.63 ERA, with a 1.11 WHIP. They both have been used frequently, and in high-leverage situations.

Those were (by far) the best available reliever options, as the trade deadline passed. An actual problem at this point for AJ Preller is that no GM wants to trade him any more prospects. They see the Padres future, and they don’t want one of their own to be part of it. This slightly suppressed the value for everyone else, since Yates & Stammen were the top of the bar. After the deadline both are still Padres, despite all the media talk that they would be dealt to contenders.

The best starter available, Chris Archer was eventually dealt by the Rays to the Pirates at the deadline for two young MLB players: outfielder Austin Meadows and right-hander Tyler Glasnow. That’s probably less that what Archer is worth, but the Rays were determined to sell. That’s how you control a trade market, and this isn’t the first time AJ Preller has done it. More importantly, Preller held onto all of his prospects. Below is a screenshot of all the last-minute deals made at the 4:00 PM ET MLB trade deadline, posted at mlb.com. As you can see, beyond Chris Archer it was all low-level stuff:

Wrap-up: The fact is that in another year or two, all of the names on the Padres top-30 prospects list are going to be either: 1) producing in the majors, 2) knocking on the door, or 3) washed out. Not every top prospect makes it, but the level of talent and unbelievable depth in the Padres system makes them the odds-on favorite to become the next Houston Astros. The Padres will be doing it in the easier league, with an AL-type roster and organizational depth built around power pitching & hitting. They are in this position because of their general manager, who is a baseball & organizational genius.

…………<><><><><>………….