Tag Archives: AJ Preller

Postscript on the Mookie Betts salary dump

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Well it finally happened. The Red Sox have announced the dumping of RF Mookie Betts & LHP David Price to the Los Angeles Dodgers. It turns out that LA GM Andrew Friedman was willing to give up young RF Alex Verdugo, which is the key piece in the deal. Verdugo missed the last two months of the 2019 season with core & back issues, which is a red flag.

If Alex Verdugo is an injury bust, then the Dodgers may win this trade. Unless Price goes down. That’s the only risk the Red Sox are taking in this deal. If Verdugo comes back healthy & productive, then the Red Sox did well to get what they could in this dump, as he’s under team control through 2024. That’s how the trade rates–meaning it’s wait & see.

The Dodgers also gave up RHP Kenta Maeda, a bargain starter who is locked in at $3.125M per year for the next four seasons, to the Twins for RHP Brusdar Graterol (MLB Pipeline’s No. 83 prospect), who was also sent to the Red Sox.

The Dodgers then sent RF Joc Pederson to the LA Angels, along with OF prospect Andy Pages, for young 2B Luis Rengifo who is still pre-arbitration. This makes room for Mookie Betts in the Dodgers outfield with Cody Bellinger & AJ Pollock.

The problem with these deals from the Dodgers perspective is that it makes them older in the outfield, as compared to Pederson, Bellinger & Verdugo. Plus, the extra productivity they get from Mookie Betts only lasts one season. But the real problem is that AJ Pollock is replacement level, and needed to be dumped. Instead he’s now being made an Opening Day starter for the Dodgers.

When that all washes out, this isn’t as much improvement as one would expect from getting a MVP-type player in Betts. In short, the Dodgers gave up too much to an organization that had no choice but to dump salary. They also took on too much risk in David Price for three years.

The Red Sox accomplished their goal of getting under the Competitive Balance Threshold (CBT) by dumping Mookie Betts & RHP David Price. Reports are the Red Sox will eat around half of the $96M Price is owed over his next three season, and all that money will count towards Boston’s CBT.

So the Dodgers get age-34 David Price, with all his elbow calcifications and other wear & tear. The Dodgers wanted to make a splash, and they did. But does it really help? Once again, time will tell. It’s questionable, for sure.

The other Mookie Betts suitor this winter was the San Diego Padres, who were reportedly engaged with Boston until the end. Padres had no interest in Price. A few proposals the Red Sox were floating through the media were as follows: 1) Padres get Mookie Betts; Red Sox get: C Luis Campusano (MLB’s No. 50 prospect), OF Taylor Trammell (MLB’s No. 57 prospect), OF Josh Naylor, LHP Joey Lucchesi, OF Wil Myers & cash. It was the Padres dumping Wil ‘WAR nil” Myers that made this deal untenable for the Red Sox.

Another rumored trade option was Mookie Betts (& cash) for: C Luis Campusano, OF Manuel Margot & LHP Joey Lucchesi. The problem there was the Padres being asked to give up too much cost-controlled talent for one year of Mookie Betts. Padres GM AJ Preller wisely refused both these scenarios. It’s catching prospect Luis Campusano that everyone wanted from the Padres this winter, after Preller declared top prospects MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patiño & CJ Abrams untouchable.

Sometimes there comes a point where you have to let go of a deal you’ve worked on for a very long time. This is what happened to AJ Preller. He wanted Betts, but more importantly he wanted to dump OF/1B Wil Myers. But that doesn’t mean giving away the farm, and that’s what the Red Sox were demanding. Remember, it’s the Red Sox who had to make a deal. They needed to dump to get under the CBT.

The Dodgers got their superstar for one season, and the Red Sox are now reset on the CBT, so they can go crazy again with payroll next year. Padres GM AJ Preller wanted Mookie Betts, but never lost sight of what was more important. He needs to dump Wil Myers, and therefore has to hold onto enough tradeable talent to make that happen.

If Preller trades for Betts to dump Myers on Red Sox terms, he empties his pool of young talent. That’s not worth one season of superstar production in RF for the Padres. It’s tough to walk away when one is so close, but it’s better than making a bad deal. It’s easier just to bench Wil Myers, and look for another deal. That’s what the 26th man on a roster can be used for now.

Since the Dodgers are in the same division with the Padres, these trades have major NL West ramifications. The Dodgers are again the clear favorite, but they’ve shortened their window of contention with this deal, and added major injury risk in David Price. If they don’t win a World Series in 2020, or if Price needs major surgery, then this deal busted and that’s a tough position to put your franchise in as a GM.

That’s why I don’t like this deal for the Dodgers, but love it as a Padres fan. The Dodgers were already top dogs in the  NL, and didn’t need to take this gamble. They just needed to make the right deal at the July 31 deadline. Andrew Friedman thinks they need help now. Mookie Betts is nice for this season, but David Price is a huge roll of the dice. We’ll see in 2020, and beyond.

The Padres are still much improved this winter. They are at least 10-12 wins better with the moves AJ Preller has made. But the MLB establishment keeps denying Preller the big prize he needs to take the next step up in competitiveness– whether is Shohei Ohtani, Christian Yelich or Mookie Betts. Preller was in on all of these players when they were available, and was in a great position to obtain them all, but got none of them. It’s clear the Padres are expected to give up more than anybody else to get the same player, and AJ Preller doesn’t subscribe to that. That’s why Mookie Betts & David Price ended up with the Dodgers.

Thu 06 Feb 2020 03:00 PM EST

Like the Iowa caucus, this deal has yet to be finalized. Here’s why?

The Red Sox projected hard-throwing righty Brusdar Graterol to be a starter, but now that they’ve seen the Twins medical, they’ve adjusted their projections to him being a reliever. Therefore the Dodgers or Twins [!] have to kick in another prospect, or send money back to Boston. Otherwise the deal is off, and this includes the Dodgers-Angels swap.

This is what it’s like doing business with the Red Sox. Padres GM AJ Preller must be really happy he let it go. Catching prospect Luis Campusano is now untouchable, and the Dodgers have a mess on their hands– either way. I can only imagine what Twins & Angels management are thinking. They thought this was an easy deal for them. Now they’re stuck, while the Red Sox bitch about their return, after their main goal was accomplished in dumping Betts & Price and getting RF Alex Verdugo.

Once again with the Red Sox can’t stop whining, while insisting on cheating everyone. The sports media is in their pocket, so these errors in scouting & evaluation by the Red Sox become an excuse to rescind, or “adjust” a deal they had to make.  Fans are still waiting on their punishment from MLB for sign stealing in 2018. The Red Sox get away with all this, because they are baseball’s equivalent of Joe Biden in politics. Zombies propped up by unlimited cash & idealist nonsense

Here’s my Ken Rosenthal impression on “adjusting” the Mookie Betts-David Price dump. “In a deal of this magnitude, with a lot of pieces moving, there can be glitches. The Red Sox mis-valued a prospect they agreed on, and therefore expect someone else to pay for that mistake. This happens all the time in trades [with the Red Sox].”

What everyone involved (including MLB) needs to tell the Red Sox is: the deal is “as agreed-up,” no changes, otherwise the Red Sox keep Betts & Price. Then what are the Red Sox going to do about getting under the CBT? The organizations involved need to unite and call out this Red Sox media bluff, in order to put an end to these garbage tactics. We’ll see what happens…

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The Mookie Betts salary dump

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First & foremost, Red Sox fans need to realize this is a salary dump coming, which they aren’t used to, but is necessary. Ownership has mandated the new GM get under the Competitive Balance Threshold (CBT). The projected CBT in 2020 MLB is estimated to be just under $228M by Cot’s Contracts. Right now the Boston Red Sox have $236M allocated for 2020. Once players report to camp, the payroll checks start going out, so the Sox need to dump soon.

Here’s another rule in MLB trading. When you dump something, the other side gets to do the same. There’s no way Los Angeles Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman gives up young OF Alex Verdugo for one season of Mookie Betts at $27 million. If the Red Sox eat contract to sweeten the deal, then they defeat the purpose of the dump. The other top Dodgers prospects are too steep a price too, so it’s second tier prospects and no MLB players in return concerning any possible deal for Betts to LA. I don’t see it happening.

Zero interest in LHP David Price by the Padres, Dodgers (and everyone else), since it was reported he has calcifications in his left elbow around his Tommy John ligament. Red Sox will eat all the $96 million remaining on that deal, as well as the rest of their overpaid veterans– Sale, Eovaldi & Pedroia. GM’s would have to be talking Devers or Bogaerts to get significant prospect value in return, so no way, right?

This is about the Red Sox taking Padres 1B/OF Wil Myers and doing something with him. Myers could be worth something, but he needs a change of scenery and the discipline of a winning organization like the Red Sox. I say (as a fan) it’s a perfect fit. It’s the only way the Red Sox can get at the Padres young talent, and it’ll be nothing close to their best. That’s what happens when you put yourself in a jam by spending too much, year after year. Eventually you have to take your medicine, and the Padres are there as the only real suitors– I believe.

This burns Red Sox Nation who have hated on the lowly San Diego Padres since “undisclosed anti-inflammatories” in 2016. Ironically, Drew Pomeranz is now back with the Padres– as a reliever. The Red Sox need to get creative with Wil Myers, and find ways to extract value since they’re gonna be stuck with him, the same way the Padres have done/are doing with Pomeranz & so many others.

It sucks for fans when their franchise has to dump their best player one season before free agency. It used to be only the Marlins did stuff like that, but times have caught up to everybody. Give Padres GM AJ Preller credit for being ready to deal when the Red Sox were most desperate. Preller’s got the best available young talent and the deepest pool, so everybody wants to make a deal with him. That’s what ultimately gets this done, I say.

The Dodgers rumors & scenarios are to create a stalking horse in order to gain the Red Sox leverage in negotiations. Padres fans & management have seen this familiar media game, and understand they have to deal with big-time east coast bias here. Those are all the factors in play. I outlined much of this back in December.

This piece was published as the Mookie Betts trade rumors have reached a fever pitch, so we’ll see what happens in the coming days. Most in the industry now feel it is inevitable, because Red Sox ownership has put a gun to their new GM’s head, and this has to be done for a better franchise future. If it’s “no deal” then it was the Wil Myers’ money (and thus his valuation) which was the sticking point.

Apparently at this point, the Red Sox are willing to take on $30M of Myers remaining $68M owed, with only $4M/year counting against the all-important CBT, due to his average annual contract value of $13.8M. The Padres are pushing towards $45M, which means the Red Sox would pay $15M per year on Myers, with only $9M per counting against the CBT for the next 3 years. That’s what the Red Sox have to take on, to get prospects & young talent, for one season of Mookie Betts at $27M. This is a fascinating baseball deal going down, or at least being seriously discussed.

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MLB 2019 Winter Meetings Round-up

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Here’s the latest analysis on what’s going on in major league baseball this hot stove season.

MLB is pushing the new Red Sox GM to trade ace lefty David Price to the Angels, only they don’t have the prospects to make it happen. No way the Red Sox deal him to the Yankees. The only teams left with the prospects & payroll flexibility are in the NL– namely the Dodgers & Padres. One of these two teams will end up with David Price, if he’s dealt, which could happen this winter.

David Price is owed $32M/year for the final three seasons of his 7-year deal. The Red Sox need to get under the Luxury Tax threshold of $208M by dealing one of their high-payroll stars. Price is the pitcher everyone covets, and thus the easiest asset to deal. This is where having payroll flexibility and a good farm system pays off for contenders.

The Astros are also interested & able, but the Red Sox view them the same as the Yankees, a team in their league who is ahead of them. You can’t help them get better. Thus, David Price needs to be traded to the NL.

The Nationals just resigned ace RHP Stephen Strasburg, so they are done on starters. The Braves need a true ace to move beyond the Divisional round of the post-season, but do they have they the prospects & ownership approval for such a payroll increase? LHP Cole Hamels is probably not enough.

The Chicago Cubs maxed themselves on payroll with RHP Hu Darvish, and busted. The Milwaukee Brewers don’t have the budget for David Price. Neither have the prospects. The Cardinals are similar to the Giants: old, expensive & mediocre, so no one who is great & wants to win goes there.

In the NL West, the rebuilding Diamondbacks just dealt their ace Zack Greinke to the Astros last July, and aren’t in the market, even though they have the prospects. They may yet deal their best lefty starter Robbie Ray this winter. The Rockies are bloated with payroll, and still too many needs, with few prospects. Besides, pitchers never want to go there. I don’t know if David Price has a no-trade clause.

So it comes down to the Dodgers, who are looking for another ace to keep them ahead of the rest of the NL West; and the Padres who are looking to crash their party by establishing themselves as contenders in 2020. If AJ Preller & the Padres land David Price, they will have done that.

Remember that Dave Dombrowski was fired as Red Sox GM last summer. He was the one who made the Craig Kimbrel deal with Preller, for what turned out to be CF Manny Margot, and three other prospects who washed out, in what was hyped as a steal for the Padres at the time. Kimbrel gave the Red Sox everything he had, until his arm went dead in late 2018. Craig Kimbrel helped them win the World Series that year, which deserves respect & gratitude from every Red Sox fan. It was a fair trade in the end.

The other Dombrowski-Preller deal was the now infamous Drew Pomeranz-Anderson Espinoza deal. Many in the Red Sox Nation howled that Dombrowski had been “ripped off again by the Padres” when this deal was announced in summer 2016. A MLB/ESPN media lynch mob was formed to sanction AJ Preller, for “undisclosed anti-inflammatories” in Drew Pomeranz’s medical history with the Padres, as retribution.

AJ Preller even offered to rescind the deal, and take Drew Pomeranz back, but Dave Dombrowski refused, while the east coast media went into overdrive. This is why AJ Preller was suspended by MLB for a month in 2016. RHP prospect Anderson Espinoza never made it out of the minors, and is currently recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. The Red Sox won that trade too, yet many within the organization still complain.

The fact is, you can’t do business with liars & haters. That’s the Padres perspective. The final irony here is the Padres signing Drew Pomeranz to a 4-year $34M deal this winter, to be an ace set-up man. The only thing that makes David Price to the Padres a possibility now, was the removal of Dave Dombrowski as GM. There are still many in the Red Sox organization who harbor hate for the Padres, for making them look bad in how they have abused their clout with MLB.

The lowest point in the Padres-Red Sox relationship was the “Shohei Ohtani Affair” in which the Boston Red Sox used ESPN/MLB hatchet-man Buster Olney to openly tamper, in order to stop AJ Preller from getting Shohei Ohtani in free agency when he was posted from Japan. That’s how the most coveted Japanese two-way player ever ended up as an Los Angeles Angel.

These are the undercurrents of what’s going on in the David Price trade market. Ace lefties are rare birds, and it’s a better value to get them for 3 years, versus paying for 7-9 years in free agency. It cost teams about the same in average annual value, while limiting the long-term payroll commitment & risk. The Dodgers & Padres are all over this, you can be sure.

What’s going on this hot stove season is remarkable, which is why I’m commenting so extensively. It’s clear that teams are trending more towards being open & honest about their off-season plans. Unsurprisingly, honesty makes it easier for teams to accurately judge the market and make deals, whether it’s trades, free agency, or Rule 5 Draft selections. The 26-man roster creates new possibilities for all 30 teams.

As explained earlier, the good teams with strong farm systems are now making their moves at the Winter Meetings, because they are now clear of Rule 5 Draft considerations. The Nationals re-upped with Stephen Strasburg, and then the Yankee inked Gerrit Cole to a new record-breaking MLB 9/$324M deal a day later.

When each team better understands the other’s interests & position, then teams can reach a comfort level in dealing with each other. Conversely, when one is a arrogant, with more money than brains, then one doesn’t think about the other side when dealing SS Fernando Tatis, Jr for a cooked RHP James Shields. Or RHP Chris Paddack for closer Fernando Rodney.

In the past, many teams took a Red Auerbach (deceptive misdirection) approach to their off-season plans, which doesn’t work in a competitive & balanced league like MLB. That only insults the intelligence of the people you need to do business with in today’s world.

The Padres have been open about their intentions, and have followed through on them. They said they were going to trade players they felt had under-performed; and 2B Luis Urias, LHP Eric Lauer, RF Hunter Renfroe, and a few prospects are now gone.

The players they received in return are better, but more expensive & for shorter team control. Preller is winning deals, but he’s not ripping anyone off. Most of these deals look win-win to me, with teams lining up different needs. Preller is dealing from strength, which is his supply of young controllable MLB talent & interesting prospects.

Unloading OF/1B Wil Myers will be his final order of business before Spring Training. Wil Myers has gone from franchise player to clubhouse problem, and needs a change of scenery. The organization is frustrated with his lack of growth & make-up. He has tantalizing hot streaks, where you see the potential come through, then he falls into a funk for two months or gets hurt.

A rebuilding team may target Wil Myers as a buy-low candidate. The Padres will eat salary (3/$61M remaining) to move him. If they can’t deal him, he’ll likely be a utility player. That has value to the Padres, but is very expensive for their needs. That’s their situation, and AJ Preller hasn’t locked himself into anything. That’s how you fix a mistake, without making the bigger situation worse. Hard work, due diligence & patience.

Wil Myers turned 29 on December 10, and hit .239/.321/.418 in 155 games in 2019. His manager Andy Green was fired near season’s end, in a move meant to shake up the organization. It was the performance of Wil Myers and a few others that cost Andy Green his job. Andy Green was an excellent manager in his nearly 4 seasons with the Padres.

Green was put in impossible situations every year, with a weak roster & no depth. He held the Padres together in 2016, and again in 2017, when Preller traded everything he could to rebuild the system. It paid off for the organization, so it seems unfair that Andy Green isn’t a part of what is already a much better Padres roster. Andy Green certainly deserves another shot in MLB as a manager, with a roster that can win or an organization that requires patience.

Jayce Tingler is the new San Diego Padres skipper, following an established trend of young manager hires, which AJ Preller started when he hired Andy Green, after Bud Black was fired in mid-2015. Tingler is bilingual in Spanish, which is another trend you see in new MLB dugout skippers.

As mentioned, the organizations that are masking their intentions, are being left behind. I see the NY Mets as an example of this. They’ve spent so much time waffling back-and-forth on trading RHP Noah Syndergaard, finally stating after the World Series that he’s “off the market,” that they clearly had no “Plan B.” The Mets get a compensation pick from the Philadelphia Phillies for signing free agent RHP Zack Wheeler.

The Mets took forever to hire Carlos Beltran as their new manager, whom everyone loves, but he can only do so much with this roster. They aren’t making big splashes like they did last winter, after it blew up in their face. But they don’t seem to be hunting for mid-level free agent upgrades, or looking to make any serious trades either. They’re hoping for rebound years & better health from what they have.

A wish isn’t a plan. That’s my favorite Herman Edwards (NFL player/head coach/analyst) saying. The Mets have acquired platoon CF Jake Marsnick from the Astros for two prospects. Neither were on their Top 30 list, but they keep making these deals, and are running out of organizational depth. With all the holes they have on their roster, and no ownership commitment for a significant payroll increase, no MLB team is more caught in “no man’s land” than the New York Mets.

I’ve read more than a few articles on MLB’s site (& elsewhere) which cite an “un-named AL executive” and “un-named NL executive” in their analysis. I take this as Yankees GM Brian Cashman & Padres GM AJ Preller. Those are the two sharks running the MLB talent acquisition market this winter. These two teams made their intentions clear, and have followed through, and that sets the market.

Much of the top talent is now off the board, and that helps the free agent market move along. The lessons to players & agents is: when it’s your turn, don’t dick around. The market will make its best offer, and if you don’t take it, they will move on and leave you behind. Draft pick compensation matters, as free agents Mike Moustakis, Dallas Keuchel & Craig Kimbrel all learned the hard way.

The Rule 5 Draft will happen tomorrow morning, and there will be an update here. The Yankees were one team that needed to add 6-8 prospects to its 40 man roster to avoid them being taken in the Rule 5 Draft. That’s why they waited until the Winter Meetings to sign Gerrit Cole.

Among the Padres prospects left unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft were: Esteury Ruiz, Buddy Reed, Trevor Megill, Dauris Valdez and Michael Gettys. None are anything close to MLB ready, and are more like organizational depth, so selecting any one of these players means sacrificing a MLB roster spot for a season, for a long-shot.

With analytics and obsession over young talent, it’s harder to hit on this Rule 5 lottery than in the past. The point is that the San Diego Padres have the best farm system, and the New York Yankees are they deepest organization– and both left very little available.

The final storyline leaving the Winter Meetings is that if you haven’t helped yourself by now, it’s probably too late, as most of the top talent is already gone, as bargains are few in that market. After 3B Anthony Rendon signs, what’s left is second-tier talent– starting with LHP Madison Bumgarner. He’ll be the top QO free agent left, followed by 3B Josh Donaldson who declined Atlanta’s QO. Everyone needs pitching, and Josh Donaldson still puts up numbers, so they’ll both probably sign soon.

It’s OF Marcell Ozuna who may be the one frozen out this winter. The age-29 slugging outfielder declined his qualifying offer from the Cardinals. The Cards still want him back, but at less money. No one else seems to be interested. He’s too similar to Wil Myers, and thus not worth losing the draft pick to every other team outside of St. Louis. Padres GM AJ Preller’s desire to move Wil Myers dramatically affects the market for Marcell Ozuna and all other free agent sluggers.

The hottest markets are starting pitching, relief pitching, and then catching. Organizations now understand catching as a tandem, meaning there needs to be depth at that position. That’s why all the best catchers were quickly signed (or acquired in trade) as free agency opened. More importantly, catching is now understood to be an extension of the pitching staff, so defense really matters. Twenty-six man rosters in 2020 means some teams will go with three catchers.

Teams in need are looking for players that will give them 2+ WAR at a position in free agency. According to MLB’s 2019 metrics among position players: only LF Marcell Ozuna (age 29, 2.6 WAR); CF Brett Gardner (age 36, 3.5 WAR); RF’s Nicholas Castellanos (age 28, 2.8 WAR) & Kole Calhoun (age 32, 2.5 WAR); DH Edwin Encarnación (age 37, 2.5 WAR); 2B Eric Sogard (age 34, 2.6 WAR); and catcher Robinson Chirinos (age 36, 2.3 WAR) meet those qualifications. Note that most of them are old, so none of them will get lucrative long-term deal. Look for the younger players, with better futures to get the better free agent deals.

RHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (age 33, 4.8 WAR), LHP Madison Bumgarner (age 30, 3.2 WAR), and RHP Homer Bailey (age 34, 2.9 WAR) are the only free agent starting pitchers with a 2+ WAR in 2019. Lots of age & mileage on these arms, which is what makes them second-tier. Still, it’s pitching so it should move along, as long as egos don’t get out of control.

It’s when a Craig Kimbrel type of talent brings unrealistic expectations to the market, that things get messed up. Remember Kimbrel wanted 5/$85M or something crazy like that last year, when he was QO-tagged by the Red Sox, who didn’t want him back. After sitting out until the June Draft, and then signing with the Cubs, he was a disaster.

The Cubs re-upped with him at 3/$43M this winter, which doesn’t sound like a winning move for the Northsiders, but now we at least know what Craig Kimbrel is worth in free agency. The few known relievers who could help contenders were snatched up early, and what’s left is a crapshoot. That’s the second-tier reliever market.

No one in MLB wanted a repeat of last winter (or the winter before), where star players & their agents were holding up the market. It appears teams & free agent players/agents have come to an understanding on how the market is to work. This is the primary reason star players have moved much more quickly this hot stove season. It has been largely fan analysis & player push back on this, which has fueled this step forward.

Final Update: Wed 11 Dec 2019 11:35 PM EST

My timing is uncanny, as just after publishing on Wednesday ~6 PM EST, a flood of lower-tier free agent signings occurred as the Winter Meetings wrapped up in San Diego.

Dodgers have deal with righty reliever Blake Treinen (report): 1/$10M
Mets, Wacha agree to deal (source): MLB Network insider Joel Sherman reports Wacha will receive $3 million guaranteed with $7 million possible in incentives
Roark, Blue Jays agree to deal (source): 2/$24M
Crew has deal with KBO MVP Lindblom (source): 3/$9.125M for an age-32 starting RHP

Analysis: This is bullpen desperation for the Dodgers, and back-of-the-rotation rotation filler for the rest, with age-33 RHP Tanner Roark being the most obvious overpay by the Toronto Blue Jays– who are going nowhere. This is an example of the difference between trying to compete, and giving fans the illusion of trying to compete.

Later in the evening, it was reported by MLB that 3B Anthony Rendon agreed to a seven-year, $245 million deal with the Angels.

Analysis: The LA Angels needed to make a splash and improve themselves, and this helps. Unfortunately, they still have no pitching past Shohei Ohtani, who is coming off Tommy John surgery and will surely have innings limits. A six-man rotation is their plan, so they need at least two more quality starting pitchers after acquiring RHP Dylan Bundy from the Orioles.

Even better if they get three, because Dylan Bundy stinks. The problem is quality starters don’t exist in free agency anymore, as the Yanks & Nats ate them up. Look for the Halos to throw desperate money at big-name free agent pitchers, after they fail to land David Price. CF Mike Trout is still the best player in baseball, and he is worth the extension; but 1B/DH Albert Pujols is their franchise albatross since Josh Hamilton’s contract expired in 2017. OF Justin Upton ain’t no bargain either.

Final NL Winter Meeting Wrap-up: There have been a few head-scratchers already, none more than the Miami Marlins, who lost 105 games in 2019, acquiring 2B Jonathan Villar on December 2 from the Baltimore Orioles, after he was non-tendered due to his cost in arbitration, which will be ~$10M in 2020. This replaces 2B Starlin Castro who departs as a free agent, after being the lone MLB return in the Giancarlo Stanton salary dump to the Yankees.

Jonathan Villar is set to be a free agent after 2021, so he is an expensive rental which cost the last place Marlins a lefty pitching prospect. It won’t move them out of last place, and Villar can’t be flipped for more value, so I don’t understand what the Marlins are doing here and I’m not alone.

Righty rotation filler Jordan Yamamoto is the best player the Marlins received for MVP LF Christian Yelich to the Brewers. Top prospect in the deal CF Lewis Brinson is a bust. Twenty-four year old CF prospect Monte Harrison is a bust too. It’s also how quickly (& predictably) they busted which is very alarming to Fish fans. A bunch of nothing for Christian Yelich and his long, team friendly contract.

RHP Sandy Alcantra LHP & Zac Gallen are nice rotation pieces, as the Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis deal was by far their best trade of this teardown, their third or fourth firesale in franchise history going all the way back to 1993. Second baseman Dee Gordon was a salary dump to Seattle, and nothing materialized from the fringy prospects they acquired.

Catcher JT Realmuto was the last All-Star Derek Jeter & Mike Hill dealt, and he apparently netted a decent return from the Phillies. Catcher Jorge Alfaro is adequate and cost controllable, while prized young righty starter Sixto Sanchez is now a top-20 MLB pipeline prospect. The Phillies got an All-star catcher for a lot of years, so they already “won” this deal on their end. How Sixto Sanchez develops determines if the Marlins “win” their end of the deal, as everything else is now knowable. In summary, the Marlins gave away two MVP’s for nothing, and only acquired quality players in the Marcell Ozuna deal, and possibly the JT Realmuto deal.

The Cincinnati Reds keep making noise like they are players, when all they really have to be excited about is 3B Eugenio Suárez & young RHP Luis Castillo, whom they received from the Marlins for meatball pitcher Dan Strally in January 2017. Luis Castillo had previously been traded to the Padres for RHP Colin Rea in the Andrew Cashner deal on July 29, and then back on August 1, 2016, and this is perhaps the most infamous deal in AJ Preller trade lore.

The Reds were the beneficiary of all that foolishness as the traumatized & confused Marlins front office dealt Luis Castillo again a few months later. The tragic end of Colin Rea’s MLB career was the Marlins’ ugly unspoken organizational shame. When ace RHP Jose Fernandez was tragically killed in a boating accident a few weeks later, the Marlins fate was doomed. Soon after, longtime owner & new stadium swindler Jeffery Loria sold the Marlins for a billion dollars in profit, and Project Wolverine was implemented by new ownership.

Getting back to the Reds who have a history of never developing enough quality starters, they have gone the trade route to acquire a respectable rotation, maybe their best ever and this franchise has been in existence since 1869. Ex-Yankee RHP Sonny Gray has been extended through 2023 at an affordable cost, but RHP Trevor Bauer will be a free agent after 2020. The Reds are still a frontline pitched or two short, with big holes in their line-up. The Joey Votto extension ($25M per year 2020-2023, plus a $7M buyout) is their albatross.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been forced into the second-tier of free agency in 2020, after splashing with RHP Jake Arrieta & RF Bryce Harper the past two winters. Those signings already look bad, and it’s still early, which is scary if you are a Phillies fanatic. RHP Zack Wheeler (5/$118M) is their last plunge, and it better pay off, otherwise the Phils are sunk.

They may be sunk even if Wheeler pitches well, as their roster has too many holes in their line-up, rotation & bullpen. Didi Gregorius (1/$11.75M) at SS is risky & an overpay, which is hard to accomplish with a one-year deal, yet the Phils managed to do it. Very poor planning & money management in Philadelphia already has them near the $208M Luxury Tax threshold. They went for it before they were actually ready, and now they are stuck in the middle. Bryce Harper is their albatross.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are the last NL team to discuss. Once again, they are trading their top veteran player, this time it’s CF Starling Marte, who is age-31 and has two years of team control remaining at $24M. The last place Pirates won’t get much for him, and would do best to keep him, but recall this is the organization that traded ace RHP Gerrit Cole to Houston two years ago. Historically, this is the organization that let Barry Bonds walk. The Marlins are the worst team in the NL, with the Pirates not far ahead of them. With the fall of the Cubs, the NL Central is now the weakest division in the senior circuit.

After coveted 3B Josh Donaldson signs, there will be very few impact players left in free agency who can move the needle on any of this. It’s pitching that everyone needs. The challenge, especially for AL teams like the Rays & A’s, is to identify & sign this year’s Charlie Morton. The AL is tougher on pitchers because of the DH. Therefore the AL’s best & brightest GM’s take the top pitchers first, and leave the leftovers for the NL.

Since LHP Madison Bumgarner garners no interest from the Yankees, Astros or Rays, he has diminished value to their competitors. Notice how they weren’t interested in Zack Wheeler either. A mid-level NL team, or desperate AL team will make Madison Bumgarner (and his like) the best offers in the coming weeks of free agency. But it’s actual performance which drives wins in MLB, and it’s mostly diminishing futures for old starters. This much we know, and the rest will play out and reveal itself next season.

Many top teams don’t stick around for the Rule 5 Draft, as they aren’t making selections. Therefore this writer is also signing off on the 2019 Winter Meetings, because there is no Josh Hamilton available. Here’s a MLB preview of the Rule 5 Draft, and I’ll let readers figure the results out for themselves.

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MLB Trade Deadline Notes

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Postscript: Thu 01 Aug 2019 01:16 PM EDT

The only blockbusters of this year’s MLB Trade Deadline were the Zack Greinke & Jake Bauer deals. Both were for controllable, elite starting pitchers, which is what wins the World Series. Houston won this Deadline as a buyer, by getting Greinke for 2+ years which means 3 play-off runs. Jake Bauer is only signed through 2020, and the Reds aren’t a play-off team, so they lose. The San Diego Padres won that 3-way deal, by acquiring the best prospect dealt this trade season, while only giving up a young, cost-controlled slugger– of which they had a surplus. Taylor Trammell is in AA, and has star make-up & tools in CF.

Besides me, only AJ Cassavell, the beat writer for the Padres on MLB.com has reported these facts & goings-on accurately. Only prospect guru Keith Law correctly called this as a big win for the Padres. As outlined below, most ESPN & MLB head writers are too biased to provide any objectivity or clarity on what occurred. They represent fake news in sports.

Once again, San Diego Padres GM AJ Preller pulled off the biggest deal of the MLB Trade Deadline. Cleveland’s RHP Jake Bauer was the best value pitcher who moved this trade season, and San Diego landing center-fielder Taylor Trammell from Cincinnati was the best prospect. That’s the name of the game when you are a seller– get the best prospect(s).

AJ Preller did it again, as the Padres receive lefty-hitting CF prospect (#30 MLB pipeline) Taylor Trammell (below) from Cincinnati. The Reds get Trevor Bauer from Cleveland. The Indians get OF Yasiel Puig & LHP Scott Moss from Cincinnati; OF Franmil Reyes, LHP Logan Allen & A-level 3B prospect Victor Nova from San Diego.

It only cost the Padres slugger Franmil Reyes, who slots better as a DH in the AL. Padres have depth in the corner outfield with Hunter Renfroe having a similar profile and being better defensively. Wil Myers has been benched due to poor performance, with a near-40% strikeout rate. He will now get more starts again, which is needed, but Myers is an expensive problem. The San Diego Padres will have to eat contract to move him, and I imagine he was brought up in proposed trade discussions by Preller. The Padres are again stuck with Wil Myers, and expect him to perform better, otherwise he’ll be benched again. They still have CF’s Franchy Cordero & Travis Jankowski as in-house outfield options.

At this point, I will admit that I was wrong about the famous Wil Myers–Steven Souza Jr–Trea Turner deal. AJ Preller gave up the best player, but it was justifiable. He was looking for a franchise player, and Wil Myers had that potential as a former minor league player-of-the-year. Turner has a more limited upside and is an injury risk due to his style. Trea Turner was the best Padres prospect Preller inherited when he took over as GM in August 2014. The Padres farm system was ranked dead last in MLB. Five years later it is #1, by far. This is one of his few mistakes, but it wasn’t too costly.

Trea Turner currently has 11.0 WAR to Wil Myers 9.7 according the baseball reference, so it wasn’t a huge loss, but still the Padres would be better with SS/2B Trea Turner than OF/1B Will Myers. Turner is two years younger. It’s a gamble AJ Preller lost, and that will happen when you have to turn everything over as the new GM of a sad-sack franchise that has never won anything.

General managers in MLB are judged by their colleagues not in terms of straight “wins & losses” on each deal, but in the aggregate. Actions need to coordinate with overall objectives that improve the organization’s chances of winning a World Series– either this year or in the near future. In these terms with the Padres it’s always the future, but now the future is closer than ever. Each year that AJ Preller can continue to acquire the best prospects, the longer and more open the Padres “window of contention” becomes.

AJ Preller played this deadline beautifully– AGAIN. By that I mean for the 4th year running. Since his legendary performance in 2016, when he acquired SS Fernando Tatis, Jr & RHP Chris Paddack for stale beans to the White Sox & Marlins, AJ Preller has been the leading GM in MLB. He locks up the trade market these days, because he has what every other team covets– top prospects in numbers at all levels.

AJ Preller has that blend of “scout’s eye” for baseball, along with analytic understanding of what it takes to win. He has an owner with deep pockets, who will spend on whatever AJ Preller needs. Every trade deadline, or hot stove season now seems to begin with, “Who can make a deal with AJ Preller for some of his top prospects?” But it never happens. Preller and Padres beat writer AJ Cassavell played this Trade Deadline beautifully, by downplaying & stringing the Mets along on Noah Syndergaard (below) trade rumors, all of which came straight from New York.

For the record, the Padres have acknowledged they would love to add Noah Syndergaard to their rotation, but not at the price the Mets ask. Keep in mind it’s the Mets & the east coast media who have been pushing a Thor deal to the Padres for at least 18 months now. Last year I recall it was SS Fernando Tatis, Jr and a few pitching prospects, Chris Paddack, Cal Quantrill, etc. for the mighty Mets hurler. That was the Mets proposal, or something like that…

Unfortunately Thor contracted Hand Foot & Mouth disease around the 2018 deadline, which killed any idea of that deal. The Mets & company tried again this past winter, but Preller decided to go with his young arms, until it’s time to get a real ace. A good GM goes into that acquisition mode when his team is a threat to win the World Series, which the Padres aren’t in 2019.

Nevertheless, the Mets went hard after the Padres farm system again this Trade Deadline, demanding MLB players & prospects this time around for their superhero pitcher with an 2019 ERA over 4.00. Top hitting prospect 2B Luis Urias & CF Manny Margot were floated in the NY/ESPN media, but there was no way AJ Preller was dealing either of them for 2+ years of Syndergaard. How about ace pitching prospects Mackenzie Gore or Luis Patino? These wishful speculations reflecting extreme east coast bias hooked the NY sports media. Preller & his media team fed them enough to remain hopeful, in order to keep them occupied, while he consummated his three-team deal with Cleveland & Cincinnati.

The Amazin’ Mess

So what are the Mets doing? Acquiring RHP Marcus Stroman from the Blue Jays for their top pitching prospects three days earlier was a head-scratcher. Was it to flip him? Why did the Mets keep Stroman from the NY media until after the trade deadline? How can the Mets expect to flip a pitcher they just acquired, for more than they paid, with only three days with which to do it? Doesn’t make any sense, but these are the Mets, so anything is possible.

Of course the industry responded by collectively sitting on their hands, while the clock expired on the Mets. So much for that idea. Stroman now can’t be traded until after the season, making him less valuable. The people running this Amazin’ Mess, behave similarly to those at the Federal Reserve who believe they can will things to happen– through hype & fiat.

The Mets still have too many expensive starting pitchers, for a team that sits in 4th place in the lackluster (over-rated) NL East. Their bullpen is a disaster, offense inconsistent, and defense one of the worst in MLB. Being in the same division as the Miami Marlins keeps them out of last place, while inflating their deluded expectations. This team has no chance of winning in the post-season, yet they are trying to spin their inability to deal Noah Syndergaard (and the rest) for a boatload of top prospects, as a commitment to “winning in 2019.” And people wonder where fake news comes from, and why it exists.

After the Marcus Stroman acquisition, the Mets traded starter Jason Vargas to the Phillies for 26-yo AA catcher Austin Bossart, to compensate for dealing away their two best pitching prospects. I have no idea what the Mets are doing, but what ever it is, it’s going to fail badly. These deals have no chance of turning out well in the short term, or long term.

By mid-day Wednesday, July 31, 2019, the MLB “Trade Talk” headlines led with “Mets pull Thor off trade market (source).” Noah Syndergaard pitched 7 innings last night against the White Sox in Chicago giving up one run, unearned, in a no-decision the Mets won. Syndergaard in 2019: 7-5, 4.10 ERA in 134.0 IP. That’s not an ace, but his stuff is good enough to be priced as a #2 starter with two years of team-control remaining.

The problem is the Mets publicly value Thor as an ace, when in 5 years he’s never pitched 200 innings in a season. Noah Syndergaard is a huge injury risk, and the Mets have a reputation for mishandling pitching. You can not get the NY media/Mets management to admit to any of these facts, nor rationally discuss what they mean.

An analogy that personifies Mets management in this situation is the high school boy who boasts he will only take the prettiest girl to prom. He arrogantly claims he is the stud on the market, and any girl should be honored to be his date. Of course, it’s human nature to reject such chutzpah. So when prom day arrives, and our self-acclaimed Don Juan still has no date, he proclaims to take himself off the market, because he didn’t receive an acceptable offer. All his loser buddies (ESPN, etc) prop him up, as group-think rules in this crowd.

The Mets think they are stockpiling pitching, for when it becomes a “seller’s market.” The problem is that markets move on, and the Mets are stuck with devaluing assets they don’t need, can’t afford, and can’t get return value in trade– due to their own incompetence & intransigence.

Trade Deadline Conclusions

The second Wild Card has changed the MLB Trade Deadline significantly, to the point where 1) there is just one deadline, July 31; and 2) the fact that so many teams remain in contention that it’s hard to determine who is (and who should be) buying or selling. The San Francisco Giants were out of contention a month ago, but have become hot since. Therefore they aren’t trading their ace LHP Madison Bumgarner. The second wild card is within reach.

It’s the right move to hold on, because the Giants wouldn’t get fair value for him anyways. The ace pitching market values prospects above rentals. Expect the Giants to offer Bumgarner a qualifying offer (QO) in November, and it will be interesting to see if he accepts. It will be ~$18M for one year. If MadBum declines, he could end up like Astros LHP Dallas Keuchel, who had to wait until the following June amateur draft for the draft pick compensation to expire for him to sign a fair “free agent” deal.

I haven’t published on MLB since relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel & starter Dallas Keuchel signed with the Cubs & Braves in June. Here’s the bottom line. Kimbrel is toast, and the Red Sox knew it. Kimbrel still got a 3/$43 from the Cubs, which is another disaster free agent overpay for the northsiders. So far in 2019 Kimbrel is: 0-2, 6.75 ERA in 10.2 IP.

LHP Dallas Keuchel signed with the Braves on June 7 for 1/$13, and is 3-4, 3.86 ERA in 49 IP so far. As you can see, the Braves did better here, but still Dallas Keuchel isn’t anything that moves the needle significantly towards them winning a World Series. That’s why teams didn’t want to give up the draft pick to sign either of these pitchers. That’s the risk a free agent takes these days when he declines a QO. The rule is: you need to be worth MUCH more than that pick to decline, otherwise accept, and become a unrestricted free agent next year. Otherwise the QO-tagged player will get squeezed in free agency. A player can only be made a QO once.

RHP Hyun-Jin Ryu of the Los Angeles Dodgers is an example of someone who understood this situation correctly and is now set for his payday, because he was patient and willing to play one more year at $18 million, in order to become a true free agent next year. Ryu didn’t have to wait out suitors that weren’t calling this past winter like Keuchel, Kimbrel and so many others. Maybe that’s why Hyun-Jin Ryu is having a career year, just when he needs one. It’s like he planned it.

Frontline starters Robbie Ray, Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard, Zach Wheeler, etc were all rumored to be available, and they all stayed put. The fact is all these pitchers have more value to their teams than what they would net in trade return, due to their contracts and/or 2019 performance.

In a last-minute Trade Deadline blockbuster, the Astros acquired Diamondbacks ace RHP Zack Greinke for 1B/OF Seth Beer (Astros’ No. 3 prospect, per MLB Pipeline), right-hander J.B. Bukauskas (No. 4), righty Corbin Martin (No. 5) and infielder Josh Rojas (No. 22). Houston receives $24 million as part of the deal. Greinke has two more years at $35M/year on his contract. The Houston Astros are a smart organization trying to win it again, and this is how you do it. Notice that they held on to their top prospect OF Kyle Tucker. The best GM’s are the ones who can declare certain players & prospects untouchable, and still make deals.

Outside of Stroman, Bauer & Greinke it was the likes of innings-eaters such as Tanner Roark, Daniel Hudson Aaron Sanchez & Drew Pomeranz that led the list of pitchers moved at the deadline. The market had already been set by the Jake Bauer-Taylor Trammell trade, and few teams were willing to or capable of making that kind of deal. That’s why movement in the trade market was so limited.

The truth is that the Mets & Reds had no business obtaining these starters, for what they gave up. These are two 4th-place teams, giving up valuable prospects for one-year pitcher rentals. The Mets decided to make a splash & crapped out, while the Indians & Padres needed a third team to take on Jake Bauer to make their deal. The Reds were there, and they’ll probably be in 4th place next July, shopping Jake Bauer before he leaves as a free agent. That isn’t planning, it’s impulsive buying.

Relievers were also capped by AJ Preller in the form of Kirby Yates (above), the best closer available. For the past two seasons it was Brad Hand. This time, no one made an acceptable offer, so there was no deal for the Padres ace closer. The market followed by going after lower-end relievers at the finish. Lots of middle relievers, bench players, PTBNL & international slot money was exchanged, but few impact players or pitchers. That was the story of this MLB trade season.

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Manny Machado Signs Record Free Agent Deal with the Padres

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This didn’t seem possible a few weeks back, but in the end the San Diego Padres have signed the biggest MLB free-agent prize of this winter. Manny Machado is a SS, but will soon move to 3B when top prospect Fernando Tatis, Jr (acquired James Shields to White Sox) arrives sometime in 2019. Along with prospect hitting-machine 2B Luis Urias, the Padres have a good infield that will be under team control through at least 2022.

Their current outfield mix is young and has upside, with legit prospects in the minors. All their stud pitching is in the minors, and the first wave is set to arrive in 2019. RHP Chris Paddack (Fernando Rodney to the Marlins), & LHP Logan Allen (Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox) will get their first opportunities in 2019.

The Machado signing signals the Padres will be aggressive in bringing their young pitchers up. The Padres haven’t made any free-agent pitching acquisitions in the off season, starter or reliever, that will pitch for them in 2019. The signal is that they believe in their young talent and are ready to promote their top performers to Petco. Padres fans have never seen anything like this in franchise history: a fertile farm system, along with ownership that spends on free agent talent as needed. In the last two off seasons, the Padres have signed the 2 richest free agents: 1B Eric Hosmer $144M last winter, and now SS/3B Manny Machado for 10 years, $300M.

Note that all the arguments & protests made by veteran MLB players & know-nothing media pundits over “collusion,” have now fallen to the wayside. There is no collusion in modern MLB free agency. There is only MLBPA stupidity & blindness, by agreeing to a system that will only reward the biggest stars, and freeze out the rest. Outspoken players should re-direct their anger towards those who agreed to this rotten CBA deal. The word is RF Bryce Harper is about to sign a deal with the Phillies. Whether it is more or less than Machado’s deal is irrelevant, next to the bigger point, which is that no one else will get anything close to what these two get.

Lefty starter Dallas Keuchel & righty reliever Craig Kimbrel remain available, and can be had for a song. The reason they are still available is because they probably don’t have much left, and are high-risk signings that also cost a high draft pick. That’s the value killer. Impending free agents (who aren’t superstars) that are made qualifying offers, need to start taking them.

A player can only be offered a QO once, so by accepting, they become unrestricted free agents the next winter. Otherwise, they’re taking less money under this system. Both Keuchel & Kimbrel refused a $17.9M qualifying offer (QO) offer by their clubs last November. This isn’t collusion, it’s lack of understanding by the MLB players, MLBPA bureaucrats & their agents.

Keuchel won’t get a multi-year deal that matches the AAV of his QO, and Kimbrel probably won’t even get $10M on a 1-year deal at this point. The Red Sox have said they can’t afford him, as he puts them over the luxury tax threshold, which means his salary would cost ~50% more (in MLB penalty taxes) if the Red Sox re-sign him. That’s the only team that doesn’t lose a pick if they sign him, saying they won’t sign him. So who wants him? Answer: No one who spends big money on a closer.

Kimbrel & his agent should have seen this early, and lowered their demands. Now it’s too late, and Kimbrel is at the mercy of the market full of hungry vultures who missed out on the real prizes, and are now bargain shopping. The 6/$80M deal Craig Kimbrel was seeking has not materialized, and now he’ll have to take whatever he can get– just like the rest of the remaining free agents. Those non-superstar free agents who signed early (generally speaking) got the best deals. Those who held out, got left behind. So when the Twins, etc, come a-calling with their low-ball offers, remaining free-agents better be ready to sign.

Pitchers & catchers have been in camp for a week, and by now all the signed players have reported too. When Bryce Harper’s signing is soon announced, every other unsigned free agent officially moves into panic mode. They have to sign and get to camp, otherwise they risk losing the season to someone else who took their spot, simply because they said “Yes” to an offer as the available jobs ran out. That’s the way teams are with veteran free agents these days, and it’s called hardball moneyball.

Remember that Harper & Machado are both age 26, which means they are young and in their prime. They both have Hall-of-Fame arcs, so every franchise that wants to win is seeking to add them. This market fell to the Padres because so many teams have already maxed-out their payrolls. The Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs & Dodgers are big market heavyweights that weren’t in on either superstar this winter. Why? Because they all have high payrolls, and can’t afford either Harper or Machado.

I’m not saying 10 years, $300 million is a bargain (it’s actually crazy money), but I will say that not having any of those 4 aforementioned teams involved kept the cost down, if that seems possible. That’s the only way the Padres were able to get precisely the superstar they needed. Until this deal, it was Ty France at 3B for the Padres.

This adds 5-6 wins to the Padres in 2019, and makes the Fernando Tatis, Jr. transition to the majors a much easier process. Any time you can add a HoFer in his prime to your team, it’s a good move. Especially when you’ve planned so you can afford it. The was a brilliant campaign by Padres GM AJ Preller, who has done it again. What looked like a quiet (but dominant) winter for him, turned into his biggest coup yet. No one seriously thought the Padres would get Manny Machado– myself included. Ownership support is crucial, and anyone can see that management is leading, with ownership on the same page, which is what you want as a fan.

I am a Padres fan, so I’m now officially excited for 2019. I had heard the Machado rumors in the wind, and dreamed on it for a bit, but never took it too seriously– and neither did anyone else. Only a few weeks back, did the buzz start to become more focused on the Padres, who also met with Bryce Harper. The Padres did a great job of staying under-the-radar, and then striking when the time was right, getting exactly the player they needed.

Evidentially, Manny Machado didn’t like the White Sox or the Phillies as much, which says something, because both teams needed him. In the case of the White Sox, it’s the fact that they’re going to be bad for awhile which is the turn-off. For the Phillies, I see them as an organization that can’t make up their mind on what they really need, because you can’t sign both. The Phillies seemed to believe they could. Only the Yankees can do that, and they don’t anymore, as even they have limits.

The Phillies are now the favorites to sign Bryce Harper, as they need him the most (which means they’ll spend the most) among the remaining suitors. They signed RHP Jake Arrieta late last spring to 3/$75M, and the first year was a disappointment, as his ERA was near 4.00, and he faded down the stretch. This team has good young pitchers, but have too many holes to fill. Harper will help them, of course, but he maxes them out on payroll, while still leaving too many positions at replacement level. That’s why the Phillies signing Harper, won’t mean as much as the Padres signing Machado. When you sign a free-agent for this much money, he has to fulfill all your needs, otherwise it will be an overpay and/or bust. Those are the hard lessons of MLB free agency.

San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy (above) announced this would be his last season the other day. He’s won 3 World Series managing the Giants. Bochy lost one (1998 to NYY) as the skipper of the Padres from 1995-2006. He never should have been fired, but the Friars had unstable ownership & constantly-changing management back then. He’s still one of the best, but his team is old. The Padres 2019 win projection before the Machado signing was 76, meaning the NL West is (again) the toughest division in the senior circuit.

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Padres & the MLB Trade Deadline Breakdown

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If you’ve been through a few MLB Trade deadlines (and I have), then you know this is a feeding frenzy. You have two sub-sets of teams; those trading away MLB assets for prospects & young talent, and those competitive teams acquiring winning MLB talent. Everyone is trying to improve themselves, whether the focus is on this October, or the future. The most-coveted MLB asset for championship contenders is top-tier relief pitching, as that’s what October baseball comes down to. Who can get those crucial final outs from their bullpen?

The most coveted return for sellers are top prospects: top-100 MLB prospects, top organizational prospects, top pitching prospects, top left-handed pitching prospects, etc. Position players are added for depth, and to plug holes, but they don’t move the needle towards winning like relief pitching or front-line starters.

The fascinating (and mostly unmentioned) thing about this trade deadline is that Padres GM AJ Preller held aces on both ends of this spectrum, and once again exerted influence & control over the trade market. He dealt coveted lefty closer Brad Hand (and righty set-up guy Adam Cimber) on July 19, 2018 to Cleveland, in return for C Francisco Mejia, their top prospect– ~15th overall in MLB. The Padres needed a catcher, as Austin Hedges is elite defensively, but isn’t the everyday answer. Hedges is an elite caddy in a catching tandem. Padres won’t be dealing Mejia, you can be sure.

As the above screenshot indicates, Francisco Mejia currently ranks 3rd in the Padres stacked farm system– behind SS Fernando Tatis, Jr. and LHP Mackenzie Gore. The list of talent in this top-12 is the envy of MLB. There are more-than-a-few teams in MLB who don’t have a single player in their farm system that is better than any of the Padres top-12 prospects. This represents championship level talent at bargain basement salary, which means you can keep it together. Every savvy GM & organized front office understands that.

This is what put the San Diego Padres in the RHP Chris Archer trade conversation. Any GM of a last-place team needs to look at ways to improve their starting pitching. AJ Preller did this, but what the Rays wanted in return was too high a price. Besides, Chris Archer isn’t an ace. He’s a valuable #2 starter on championship NL roster, and a #3 in the AL.

AJ Preller knows you don’t give up the farm for that, especially at this point in their competitive cycle. Padres don’t need to pay Archer’s (affordable) salary either. So what was Preller doing? He was doing what any good GM in his advantageous position should do, test the market and get an idea of how other organizations value your prospects. It turns out that rival GM’s value Padres prospects very highly. More reason to hold onto them.

There was non-stop speculation from the MLB/ESPN driven media, that the Mets were going to deal their “aces.” Let’s back up for a moment here. First, the only ace the Mets currently have is RHP Jacob deGrom, and the Mets have said repeatedly they don’t want to trade him, unless it’s an offer that’s over-the-top and they can’t refuse. Nothing of the sort was ever presented.

Somehow by mentioning a deGrom trade possibility through the media, the Mets front office reasoned that would make RHP’s Noah Syndergaard (above pic) & Zack Wheeler appear more valuable. It doesn’t work that way with astute GM’s. Let’s examine the true trade value here.

The best pitcher the Mets actually had available was Syndergaard. The problem is he never stays healthy, and he just went on the DL again, this time with hand, foot & mouth (HF&M) disease. HF&M disease is a viral infection, that wipes you out– similar to mononucleosis or hepatitis. No team wants to bring a carrier of a contagious disease into their clubhouse. Yet the MLB/ESPN sports media kept trying to push a trade possibility, and it (curiously) was often linked to the Padres, as they have the prospects to make it happen.

The media also underplayed the causes of HF&M disease, which is poor hygiene, not washing your hands, etc. A responsible MLB GM can’t blow that off as incidental. It says something about who that person is, and their intellect. Unlike a bone fracture or muscle/ligament tear; this could wipe out an entire clubhouse– for a month or more!

The kid may have talent, but his head is a huge question mark, along with the Mets medical staff. Therefore Noah Syndergaard is definitely not worth the gamble of trading away the farm system to obtain. The Padres would rather keep top LHP prospect Mackenzie Gore, and that’s what AJ Preller did.

Zack Wheeler was endlessly floated over the past few weeks as a starter that could help a contender. He’s viewed by GM’s as a #4/5 guy- so that was a non-starter. Wheeler was the beneficiary of possibly the worst umpiring decision in the history of MLB, in a recent start against the Padres at Citi Field.

This trade deadline was most cruel to the New York Mets, who are currently 44-59, sitting 4th in the NL East with a bad farm system, and unable to trade any of their best starters for the prospects they so desperately needed. The Mets team owner is bankrupt, so winter free-agent splashes are probably not an option. That’s an Amazing Mess.

As mentioned, all the serious focus up to the deadline (outside of Chris Archer) was on top-tier relievers. AJ Preller still held the best cards in this market, even after dealing Brad Hand. Reliever Kirby Yates (1.60 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP) is controllable through 2020, and Craig Stammen has a 2.63 ERA, with a 1.11 WHIP. They both have been used frequently, and in high-leverage situations.

Those were (by far) the best available reliever options, as the trade deadline passed. An actual problem at this point for AJ Preller is that no GM wants to trade him any more prospects. They see the Padres future, and they don’t want one of their own to be part of it. This slightly suppressed the value for everyone else, since Yates & Stammen were the top of the bar. After the deadline both are still Padres, despite all the media talk that they would be dealt to contenders.

The best starter available, Chris Archer was eventually dealt by the Rays to the Pirates at the deadline for two young MLB players: outfielder Austin Meadows and right-hander Tyler Glasnow. That’s probably less that what Archer is worth, but the Rays were determined to sell. That’s how you control a trade market, and this isn’t the first time AJ Preller has done it. More importantly, Preller held onto all of his prospects. Below is a screenshot of all the last-minute deals made at the 4:00 PM ET MLB trade deadline, posted at mlb.com. As you can see, beyond Chris Archer it was all low-level stuff:

Wrap-up: The fact is that in another year or two, all of the names on the Padres top-30 prospects list are going to be either: 1) producing in the majors, 2) knocking on the door, or 3) washed out. Not every top prospect makes it, but the level of talent and unbelievable depth in the Padres system makes them the odds-on favorite to become the next Houston Astros. The Padres will be doing it in the easier league, with an AL-type roster and organizational depth built around power pitching & hitting. They are in this position because of their general manager, who is a baseball & organizational genius.

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San Diego Padres In -Season Report

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These were the top free-agent pitchers available last winter and who actually won.

Hu Darvish: signed with Cubs 6yr/$126M, so far: 1-3, 4.95 ERA, 40 IP; currently on the DL with right triceps tendinitis with no timetable for his return.

Jake Arrieta: signed with the Phillies 3yr/$75M. so far: 5-4, 2.95 ERA, 69.2 IP; he’s been the best performer of all the free-agent pitchers. He’s still an injury risk.

Lance Lynn: signed with the Twins 1yr/$12M, so far: 4-4, 5.08 ERA, 62.0 IP; wasted money for the Twins, but not a disaster deal.

Alex Cobb: signed with the Orioles on March 21 [!] for 4yr/$57M, so far: 2-7, 6.19 ERA, 52.1 IP; this was an inexplicable waste of money as everyone stayed away from him, but that’s Peter Angelos– see also Chris Davis.

Sidenote: Orioles should release 1B/DH Chris Davis (.152/.232/.232), which would be addition by subtraction. He’s age-32 and a sunk cost, so “hoping” for things to turn around is futile. It’s hard to eat over $100M, but that’s the best thing the Orioles can do, if they are concerned about making themselves better, and they should be. This is the worst team in MLB, by far. The Chris Davis contract compares to the Pujols (Angels) & A-Rod (Yankees) albatrosses, and is probably actually worse. His best season under this 7-year deal at ($23M/per) was 2016: .221/.332/.459 in 665 PA. This is all on owner Peter Angelos, of course.

On December 27, 2017 Padres GM AJ Preller inked RHP Tyson Ross (above) to a 1yr/$1.75M deal, so far: 5-3, 3.43 ERA, 76 IP; this was the best free-agent pitcher signing of the off-season. Jake Arrieta has been better, but he costs 15x more money. For GM’s it’s about finding value and properly allocating resources. You can’t do better than what the Padres got here, and they really needed it.

Padres also signed 1B Eric Hosmer 8yr/$144M, who has been an invaluable addition. Without Hosmer, the Padres are at least 10 GB, instead of the 5.5 they currently sit. It’s the leadership he brings with the performance, as Padres fans now understand why Royals fans hated to see him go. This guy is a winner, and was the best position player available last winter in free-agency.

The fact that the Padres are still in last place despite these helpful additions, only proves how far back they actually were. This organization has been rebuilt from the ground, since the in-season sell-off of 2016. People are starting to see how this could be a dangerous team, as they have the best farm system in baseball, with a few interesting pieces at the MLB level.

Media rumors about the upcoming trade deadline (7/31) have again floated Padres closer Brad Hand (above) as an acquisition target for a championship contender. This is the same situation as last year, and the year before– actually. If a team is serious about upgrading their bullpen, then it’s Brad Hand. No one else is even close to his value. So far, no one has been willing to pay the Padres what he’s worth.

In 2018: 32.1 IP, 1.95 ERA, 50 K’s, 1.021 WHIP, with 18 saves. This is your basic wipe-out lefty, who gets stronger as the season progresses. Everyone covets that. Salary: $4M in 2018, then $7M, $7.6M; and the option for 2021 is $10M, with $1M buyout. This was yet another great move by AJ Preller this past winter, and he will sell only if the price is right. Until then, Brad Hand will continue to make manager Andy Green’s job easier, and the Padres look better than they really are. I believe Brad Hand is staying in San Diego.

The Padres have one of the best bullpens in MLB, and a manager who knows how to use it. That’s why they’ve been able to hang around in the NL West. Bullpens are really important, and still underrated & misunderstood by most. Today, most games are won or lost by the bullpens. Starting pitching is valuable when it performs and rests the bullpen. There aren’t a whole lot of those starters left, hence this bullpen revolution in MLB.

No one expects the Padres to seriously compete in 2018, but their dugout and front office haven’t given up on the season either. What’s going on is a constant evaluation process in which management is trying to figure out who their best young players are, and which ones they can trade. Roster management and protecting from the Rule 5 Draft are now issues for the Padres. GM AJ Preller thinks way ahead of everybody on these things, so expect him to make to deals before the deadline.

AJ Preller and company have assembled plenty of talent, so the focus is now on player development & injury management. The Padres drafted another LHP in the 1st Round of the June amateur draft, selecting Ryan Weathers a high-schooler, and the son of David Weathers former MLB pitcher. The Padres have more premium pitching talent than any farm system in baseball, and just added to it. If it is kept healthy and develops on track, then the Padres will be a force in the NL West by 2019, 2020 at the latest.

Meanwhile, this is a (mostly) young team that makes lots of mistakes, but doesn’t quit. They aren’t a good team, but they aren’t a joke either, and that’s an improvement. The energy is there, the brains are there, and the talent is coming. Padres fans are excited in ways they’ve never been before, and we’re talking about a franchise with a 50-year history.

They actually have a farm system and a plan to succeed long-term, based on home-grown talent. This never existed before AJ Preller was hired in 2014, and it’s all the difference in the world. Fans don’t mind watching a young scrappy last-place team, that they believe will get better over time. But fans won’t tolerate an old, overpaid team tanking into oblivion, with no hope for next year– see the 2018 Orioles.

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World Series, Free Agents & Padres Off-Season

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No doubt that 2017 was the Dodgers’ year, the same way 2016 was the Cubs’ year. Both were the best teams in baseball, yet one team didn’t win it all. What makes the difference? In 2016 Theo Epstein & GM Jed Hoyer got the relief ace they needed in Aroldis Chapman, from the Yankees for top prospect SS Gleyber Torres. Recall, the Cubs couldn’t have beaten Cleveland in 7 games without Chapman. It was the same way for Cleveland, in obtaining lefty relief ace Andrew Miller. Both teams couldn’t have gotten as far as they did, without those bullpen stoppers.

This year when it was time to get what you REALLY needed for the post-season (7/31 deadline), the best team (Dodgers) balked at the asking price for the most valuable post-season commodity, a lefty relief ace still under arbitration control– which is really nice in February, and invaluable in October. Much of the resistance from teams-in-need was because it was Padres GM AJ Preller selling. So, why didn’t any team make him a serious offer for Brad Hand at the deadline?

Yes, there is the trend towards organizations hanging onto their prospects, but also I suspect an element of collusion (which I can’t prove), in retaliation for what AJP did in 2016. He simply got the best of too many teams & their GM’s last year, which I’ve discussed extensively here & elsewhere. But that’s still no excuse if you are serious about winning.

Instead, the team-to-beat spent about half of what they needed to get Brad Hand, in order to acquire something they didn’t need– in Hu Darvish. By late July, the Dodgers had already won their division, and had plenty of capable post-season starters. What they desperately needed was a guy who was good enough to get outs in the 7th & 8th innings in October. It’s foolish to waste money on what you don’t need, just because it’s more affordable than what you actually need. This is what Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman did & didn’t do in 2017. This was probably the best team the Dodgers will have in this competitive window, and they blew it. Games 2 & 5 of the World Series were both there for LA to win, but manager Dave Roberts couldn’t find a guy in his bullpen to get the outs he needed, because that guy wasn’t there.

American League line-ups are qualitatively tougher than the National League, so whether it was the Astros or Yankees, Dave Roberts needed another reliable bullpen option to close those World Series games out. Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman knew this in July, when he said they were looking to acquire a “wipe-out lefty reliever.” By that he meant (of course), Brad Hand. There was no one else close to his value that was available, and yet no team would make AJ Preller a substantial offer. In other words, no team was willing to pay the price to win in October. Tell me what a GM’s job is again?

The media chimed in, “Hand’s value will never be greater… if the Padres are smart they’ll sell now…” AJ Preller said, “No!” to all that nonsense (again); and now the Gnats, Yankees and Dodgers REALLY regret not acquiring Brad Hand. He could have helped all of those teams get the outs they so desperately needed (when it counted most), instead of coming up short. This is not to say the Astros didn’t have trouble getting the tough outs too, they were just a little better balanced overall. You need luck too, but really it’s money & brains that wins. Astros were a little better at that game, and that was the difference in the fall classic.

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These are the most-mentioned MLB free agents this winter, with my brief comments:

Yu Darvish: This RHP in his prime was a great #2 starter, but never quite an ace. He’s now a #3 starter on a championship team.

J.D. Martinez: The corner OF to get, as he supplies OBP & SLG. He’s likely looking for his payday (longterm 6-8 yrs), which will be too long for most.

Eric Hosmer: He’s 28 and this is his payday– represented by Scott Boras. Look for ~8 years $200M. He’s very good, but not worth that kind of investment.

Lorenzo Cain: Age-31 speedy CF, will need to move to a corner in a year or two– never a good longterm sign. It will be interesting where he lands, and for how much & long.

Wade Davis: The FA closer this winter. That’s big $$.

Mike Moustakas: 3B career: .251/.305/.425. Had one great season in 2015, when they won it, otherwise he’s overrated.

Jay Bruce: OF/DH career (mostly in a bandbox): .249/.319/.472, which means he’s now useless. Cheap bench depth only, otherwise he’s an overpay. I’m sure someone will…

Todd Frazier: 3B career: .245/.321/.459. A little better than his former teammate Jay Bruce, but not much.

Carlos Santana: 1B/DH/C career: .249/.365/.445. Good OBP, but limited SLG, as well as catching anymore. If he stays healthy, he can be an bargain somewhere, probably AL.

Jake Arrieta: This age-31 RHP has a lot of mileage on his arm. Health & medical evaluation is critical here. If Arrieta is healthy, he can be a strong #2 starter over the course of his contract, which is extremely valuable. If his arm falls off, then some team has a huge sunk cost. This will be the highest-risk FA deal this winter.

Alex Cobb: This age 30 RHP is underrated because the Rays always have pitching. In 2017: 179.1 IP, 3.66 ERA. Yankees are interested for sure, and you know what that means.

Zack Cozart: Career SS: .254/.305/.411. He’s age-32, and 2017 was a career year. The Reds have stunk for a long time, because they invested so heavily in many of the free agents on this list. All are losing players, with inflated power stats, due to extreme ballpark effect. All are average-to-poor defenders. Teams have wised-up somewhat, but I still expect Cosart to get a richer deal than his actual worth, as there still are overspenders aplenty.

CC Sabathia: This age-37 LHP still has some gas in the tank, 2017 with NYY: 148.2 IP, 3.69 ERA. His usage needs to be limited, but those are still mostly quality innings from a 3/4 AL starter.

Ichiro Suzuki: RF 2017 with Miami: .255/.318/.332, probably should retire. Career in MLB: .312/.355/.403, 3080 hits. Best defensive RF ever? Ichiro or Clemente. First-ballot HoFer.

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Padres Notes:

The top off-season trade chips for Padres GM AJ Preller are closer Brad Hand & 3B Yangervis Solarte. Hand will likely be dealt, as teams & their fans saw the value of a shut-down reliever in October. The teams that came up short especially saw this, and should be more in the mood to offer what Brad Hand is actually worth this time around. His value is similar to what closer Craig Kimbrel was worth when he was dealt to the Red Sox in the winter of 2015. Wade Davis is the only free-agent closer available this winter, so options are limited in this premium market.

Yangervis Solarte has a lot of value. He’s an everyday 3B, with legitimate utility value, and a switch-hitter. That wins games when used properly, as Padres manager Andy Green has. From a business standpoint in terms of prospects, AJ Preller won’t get the value he’s seeking, as Solarte is generally underrated which cuts his market value. His contract is team favorable, and that leads to the reasons Solarte signed it. His wife had just passed away from cancer, and he appreciated the organizational & fan support. He stated he wanted to finish his career with the Padres. That’s a loyal soldier (but only in SD), and a valuable asset. I don’t think Padres GM AJ Preller trades that away, because most of Solarte’s value is in San Diego, which means you can’t get a fair return. You know what I mean?

AJ Preller has a logjam of young infield talent, but not a MLB SS. Whatever AJP deals, he’ll look to add depth (top prospect or MLB ready) to that position & corner OF. The Padres desperately need a mashing LF. And pitching. Most Padres fans are optimistic about Carlos Asuaje at 2B, but nothing is certain. Luis Urias is a hit-first 2B prospect, with little power. You need to see Manny Margot-type improvement from Urias, before getting too excited there. 2B/3B Cory Spangenberg, CF Travis Jankowski, and even some other relievers (if there’s interest) are the guys AJ Preller will try to deal this winter.

Preller is now running into roster crunch issues, which will only become more acute for the Padres. That alone is a sign of organizational improvement, as their fans have never seen this! AJP will now have to lean more towards protecting his prospects from the Rule 5 draft, instead of making 3 or 4 picks. Since he’s proven he can evaluate the best Rule 5 talent (5 out of 7 selections have stuck), he’ll likely be the best GM at protecting his elite young talent from hungry predators.

This organization has improved, and the bar has been raised, so these are the roster moves the Padres have been making for the upcoming Rule 5 Draft & beyond. This is how the Astros built what just came to fruition. AJP actually has the Padres on a faster curve. Note, not even one 100-loss season at the depths of their rebuilding, which was 2016-17. Padres fans thank Andy Green & Brad Hand for that. Now it’s player development and managing the 40-man roster, with the goal of building a championship team. In the meantime, more low-level FA pitchers & positional fill-ins this winter, with the possibility of a blockbuster deal or two– as it’s AJ Preller. That’s a management plan a fan can see, and go with. It’s what I expect AJP will do.

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San Diego Keeping Andy Green

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Padres extend manager Green’s contract
Skipper’s deal was set to end after 2018; now through ’21

I read this piece, and had to comment. This is what I said, with final thoughts added.

There is no question to this: If Padres GM AJ Preller didn’t extend Andy Green, then some big-spending competitive team would have made him an offer.

More on why this was such a prescient move. Note that a lot of the comments from Padres fans are along the lines of, “They’re a lot better than most people said they would be.” Why is this? It certainly NOT because of the talent on their 25-man roster. Ace lefty reliever Brad Hand is the Padres lone All-Star in 2017.

What makes Hand extra-valuable is manager Andy Green knowing how to use him properly, which steals wins. It’s really hard for Friar’s fans to say who their next-most valuable player is, but it’s probably rookie CF Manny Margot.

This is the youngest roster in MLB, by far. They have carried three Rule 5 players this season, which usually guarantees 100+ losses. Their current winning % is .436, which translates to 70-92. The Padres have overplayed their Pythagorean projection by 8 games, and most of that is due to Brad Hand & Andy Green.

A set-back for the Padres this season has been the performance of 1B Wil Myers. Age 26 & healthy, he’s currently slashing .239/.320/.464. Still good defensively at 1B, but his lack-of-bat seems to have caused some regression there also, as he’s committing more mental errors in the field. The problem at the plate is strike zone judgment. He swings at too many 3-2 pitches that are ball 4, turning them into outs. It’s a team problem as the Padres hit too many solo HR’s (in terms of overall HR-type %), with the worst OBP in MLB. OBP is life in baseball; and pitching, defense & 3-run homers are what win.

As a Padres fan, I suspected trouble when Wil Myers came into Spring Training and stated his personal goal was “40 HR’s & 40 SB’s.”  Myers’ 28 SB w/ 6 CS in 2016, caught many people by surprise. He’s 11 SB w/ 5 CS, so far in 2017. He shouldn’t try to be a SB guy, he needs to stay healthy & mash. His 2018 (and beyond) goals will need to prioritize OBP, if he is to progress as a player.

The Padres invested heavily in Wil Myers this past off-season, so the motivation & resources will be made available. Wil Myers just needs to get his head straight and figure it out. He has all the talent in the world, and that’s why AJ Preller gave up so much to get him, Trading SS/UT Trea Turner & RHP Joe Ross (both currently DL-ed) to the Nationals in a 3-team deal. Rays got RF Steven Souza, Jr, and it’s still hard to know who actually got the best of that deal?  Sometimes it takes 3-5 years to know, and this is one of those cases. Padres need Wil Myers to work out, by being at least above-average production at 1B, otherwise their current rebuilding effort is already starting to crumble.

Final note on handling players. Padres manager Andy Green has done everything he can do with Wil Myers, including recently sitting him for 3 games to “straighten his head out, get a mental break, etc…” September call-ups need to play for the Padres.  As good as their farm system is, Wil Myers may be seeing some more bench time this season– who knows? Stabilizing a young core (with better talent) around him will certainly help. The Padres are definitely doing this, as lefty-hitting 2B Carlos Asuaje may be their most-recent MLB pipeline addition. Acquired in the Craig Kimbrel deal…

Star contracts are a tricky & delicate balance, as ownership/management uses the carrot & stick. The deciding factors always come down to character, motivation & intelligence. The Padres still seem to still believe in Myers, (who at least isn’t whining or venting on teammates), so there’s room for optimism, but there needs to be more tangible progression– soon.  We’ll see…

Hypothetically, a right-handed Joey Votto (career .313/.427/.541), with better defense & base-running should be Will Myers’ player goal. That may be a little lofty comparatively, but it should still be in the area of his goal. What Preller & Green need out of Myers is a durable, championship-caliber 3-hole hitter. That’s the franchise player who drives a lineup, and catapults a team (with any kind of pitching) into contention. It’s what the Padres paid for when they signed him for 6 years $83 M this past winter. How will it pay off through 2022, is a franchise-defining question that hasn’t been answered yet?

From a minor-league standpoint, 2017 has been a huge success for the Padres. Their teams are mostly winning, and their prospects are mostly advancing. AJ Preller has brought in a depth of talent that has transformed this franchise from a joke, into the #3-ranked farm system in MLB. Yankees & Braves are ranked 1-2. Yankees are in the AL, so no worries until the WS– which isn’t happening anytime soon in SD. The Braves have a mess on their ML roster, and their prospects haven’t performed as well as expected, SS Dansby Swanson being the most prominent example. The Padres farm system was 30th (or so), when Preller took over as GM in 2015. Perhaps what’s now most-exciting for Padres fans, is seeing better players (& pitchers) starting to pop-up– seemingly out of nowhere! This is an indication of superior deep scouting, followed-up with proper player development. When you do things right, and stick with it, nice surprises start to happen over & over.

The biggest Padres minor-league organizational set-back of 2017 was RHP Anderson Espinoza blowing out his elbow, necessitating Tommy John surgery. Recall this was the prized pitching prospect, dealt by the Red Sox for LHP Drew Pomeranz in 2016. Pomeranz has since pitched the whole time in Boston, even while AJP was suspended by MLB for “undisclosed anti-inflammatories” in this trade. The irony of all this only deepens for Padres fans.

It still takes awhile for what’s happening here to translate into winning at the MLB level, but the process the Padres are going through is fundamentally correct. If/when it happens, AJ Preller will have turned a hopeless organization into a winner, faster than any GM in modern baseball. In other words, the Padres have to win it all, for Preller & Green to be widely recognized as being the best. Based on their abilities and performance, they’re already at least in that discussion. The GM-manager relationship is the most important to any organization baseball. There has to be 100% agreement on everything between the two, otherwise factionalism & hidden agendas destroy team continuity & chemistry. Time is all that is required for positive proof in San Diego. The enemy is impatience & short-sightedness, which tends to be the preferred perspective of the naysayers & critics, only proving they refuse to understand anything.

Padres Injury Notes & Up-Coming Roster Decisions

AJ Preller took a low-cost free-agency flier on Jered Weaver, to see if he had anything left in the tank. He didn’t, but it didn’t really matter to the Padres season, so there’s no hard feelings. His type of retirement is always a bit awkward, as everyone remembers him as an Angel. Well-handled by the Padres organization & Jered Weaver.

Padres roster decisions GM AJ Preller will have to soon make include: LHP Christian Friedrich, who made $1.8M in 2017, but didn’t pitch at all due to injuries. Left lat muscle & elbow giving him pain. His root issue is lack of hip, back & core strength. Preller & Andy Green will have to decide if he’s worth another go around in arbitration. Preller found better low-cost options last winter, and I suspect he’ll release Friedrich and try a similar strategy this coming off-season. We’ll see how the market plays out after the World Series…

Age 27 LF Alex Dickerson was said to be a “big part of their 2017 plans,” by some in the Padres organization last winter. He of the career 1.0 WAR. I never believed it, especially when rumors surfaced of CF Travis Jankowski & Dickerson being floated as trade bait. Dickerson now has been diagnosed with a bulging disk in his lower back, and has been transferred to the 60-day DL. He’s most-likely finished as a big-league player, and note that this is how many, many sports’ careers come to an end– unnoticed & physically disabled, with pain.

Travis Jankowski (age 26, career -0.2 WAR) hurt his foot, and has been rehabbing in the minors. His 90 PA’s (so far) in AAA El Paso are .263/.378/.355. He still can’t hit lefties, and has no pop. These were the “top prospects” AJP inherited (most of the best of which, he kept), when he took over as GM. Jankowski is still cheap, but is he worth a 40-man roster spot, when better & younger prospects have to be protected (or else exposed) before the Rule 5 draft?

LHP Clayton Richard & RHP Jhoulys Chacin have both said they want to return, and the Padres should do it– if the cost & contract length is agreeable. Nothing more than 2 years, for either, and more-likely, one year. Padres may get priced-out by the big-silly spenders.

RHP Jarred Cosart is a medical case, and now a long-shot at age 27. Padres expect LHP Robbie Erlin to be ready for ST 2018. He’s still recovering from TJ surgery in 2016. RHP Colin Rea finally submitted to TJ surgery in 2017, after blowing his elbow out in his only appearance as a Miami Marlin in 2016. Pitching is so hard to find, and they’re all so very cheap, so the Padres most-likely keep them all.

 

Update [9-2-17]: Padres cut ties with hitting coach Zinter
Friars on pace to finish last in MLB in average, OBP in back-to-back years

Alan Zinter (below) was an organizational hire by AJP, brought in when Andy Green was hired. He was one of Green’s guys from his minor-league managing stint with the Diamondbacks. AJP is calling this move. OBP is their biggest weakness, so it makes sense. I wonder how bench coach Mark McGwire now fits into their plans?

The Padres have overachieved on their pitching, both starting & bullpen. Keep in mind that not much was expected from the rotation. This over achievement is due to Andy Green & Darren Balsley. The results on the offensive side haven’t been as impressive, and it’s not because Andy Green is a klutz when it comes to using his bench or writing in a lineup. It’s because OBP is life in baseball, and the Friars are dead last again. The Padres lineup can’t continue to allow opposing starters to roll through easy innings, with guys swinging themselves into easy outs. More walks put the pitcher in the stretch, which stresses them. This leads to longer innings, more base runners & more runs. More runs means more wins. The failures of Wil Myers & Hunter Renfroe (mentioned in the article) are the tangible reasons Alan Zinter is fired. His replacement will be expected to produce better results from these two & the rest, but especially from Myers as he’s the big contract. He’s got a ton of talent, which we’ve all seen, but he’s also got head problems it seems.

Sportswriter: What’s the best hitting advice you ever got?
Ted Williams: It was from Rogers Hornsby. He told me, “Make them throw you a strike.”

For Myers & Renfroe, new goals for counting stats need to be: more walks & doubles. This will correlate to less strikeouts & more hits. Cuttings down to protect with two strikes is a prudent approach, especially in stressful at-bats against tough pitchers. Both have the power to hit it out with less than a full swing anyways. What’s lacking is strike zone judgment & control. At times it appears there’s also no plan (individual or team) to attack a pitcher. Hitting is probably the most difficult skill in sports, so it’s not like anyone has figured out all the answers, but just seeing more pitches in an AB (even if it still produces an out), has value. The pitcher is throwing more pitches and will become more vulnerable, sooner.

Padres hitters need to take more of a grind approach to every AB. If this is done up & down the line-up (with their power), it will crush most NL pitching. Note– the best grinding line-up (in recent memory) was the 1998 NY Yankees. That was a high OBP, with power 1-9; and the Padres didn’t really have much of a chance against them even with their best team ever. In the NL it’s 1-8, so this can be achieved with less payroll, which is nice. This is the direction that Preller & Green want to offense to go, as this is what’s holding everything back. Once the line-up consistently produces, the young pitching will be ready from the minors.

Another feather in Andy Green’s cap is his use of defensive shifts, which were the most dramatic in MLB in 2016, his first year a manager. The league has caught up to him & the Padres, by increasing their shifting. The point is Andy Green sees all facets of the game, manages them masterfully, and is highly respected by his peers. Bruce Bochy was only the latest to pay his respects, after their last series. Green knows where his responsibilities begin & end, and is in full partnership with his GM. When the Padres actually have a MLB roster, instead of pre-arbs, prospects & Rule 5 selections, it’s going to get a lot better in a hurry. Manny Margot is a stud, and Carlos Asuaje is a possibility. The Kimbrel deal and all the other moves AJP made in 2016, are going to reap huge bounties for years to come, and it started showing in 2017.

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Carpe Diem: LF Ryan Braun to the Padres?

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There are 5 years/$85M (through 2021) remaining on Brewers LF Ryan Braun contract. LF Alex Dickerson (or RF Hunter Renfroe), and a few middling prospects would likely make a deal– if Padres ownership is willing to take on the payroll. Prospect/MLB player value would be comparable to the C Jonathan Lucroy to Texas deal last summer, which wouldn’t hamper AJP’s rebuild. PED-stigma aside, Braun is a HOF-production bat as long as his back is healthy.

The Angels, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins and Padres are the 6 teams the Brewers can deal him to, without asking him to waive his no-trade clause. This gives AJP tremendous leverage in possibly acquiring one of the best right-handed hitters of this era. HOF-ers (and ace pitching) are what win WS.
The best fit of those 6 teams is the Padres. In terms of prospects available to make the deal the Snakes, Halos & Fish are all discounted due to poor farm systems. They simply don’t have the prospects to make a deal.
Positional availability & payroll limitations take effect too, as the Dodgers have an outfield log-jam– with unloading Yasiel Puig as their current priority.
The Giants have out-of-options Jarrett Parker who is left-handed & cheap– which is what they need in LF.  Their bullpen set-up situation is their priority and GM Brian Sabean won’t waste money on something he doesn’t need, unless it falls to replacement level. That’s how you win 3 WS in 5 seasons.

Anyways, the point is: the Padres are the most-logical fit for Ryan Braun. I believe AJP is taking these few weeks in ST to evaluate all his rookie & minor-league talent, in order to determine who is untouchable and whom he is willing to package. Owner Ron Fowler may be “biting his lip for now,” but the headline a few days back read “We’re going to have some fun,” and the article quoted him saying Opening Day payroll would be ~$75M. Right now it’s just under $57M [1]. I forecast the Padres/Brewers are going to make this surprise blockbuster very soon. Shhh!!

Why? 1) Brewers need to move Braun, and the time has come. He’ll be the last piece to be sold off. 2) Braun is undervalued & talented, and AJP covets that. 3) AJP has leverage and Braun fits with SD. Really only the D-backs & Giants could conceivably compete for his services among the 6 listed teams, and they aren’t likely to do so, due to payroll restrictions. 4) Padres owner Ron Fowler has money, and he wants to spend it.

This is a think-outside-the-box situation, an incredible opportunity to move the Padres franchise forward in it’s winning curve. It’s too good for AJP and Fowler to resist, IMO. I know it sounds like I’m out in left-field here [!], but consider this not only as a possibility but as a distinct probability, and watch for any more signs.

More Signs

Yesterday’s Padres headlines [2]:

Padres set with current crop of players
GM Preller doesn’t expect any adds before start of regular season
AJP is quoted, “Then again, never say never.”

Trades aren’t adds.

If Ryan Braun is acquired by the Padres, then this is my piece. If not, then Play Ball!!!

Acquiring LF Ryan Braun solidifies this lineup as competitive with the Giants & Dodgers. Padres lineup: 1) Manny Margot/Travis Jankowski (platoon) CF, 2) switch-hitter 3B Yangervis Solarte, 3) LF righty-masher Ryan Braun, 4) righty franchise player 1B Wil Myers (or reverse 3-4), 5) lefty pop & OBP 2B Ryan Schimpf, 6) power with excellent defense RF Hunter Renfroe, 7) Elite defense, hopefully-he-hits-enough C Austin Hedges, 8) SS will be the last position to be filled, proving the curse of Ozzie Smith as the hardest for the Padres to exorcise; I like the Luis Sardinas & Allen Cordoba mix.

That’s turning over a lineup from Gyorko, Norris, Upton, Upton, Amarista & Kemp!!! Padres team base-running was tops in MLB last season, and it will likely stay there or near. Their defense improved vastly, and will get even better everywhere except LF, with BJ Upton being clearly better defensively than Braun. Braun if healthy is average-to-slightly-below in LF. What he brings to the plate is all the difference in winning by transforming a lineup.

The 2017 Padres starting pitching has been filled out with low-cost, high bounce-back-potential free agents, but is still two notches (at least) below the NL West elite. They need Luis Perdomo to become their #2 starter, then find/develop an ace. The Padres bullpen should be a strength with the Carter Capps fixing his delivery to become the closer, and Ryan Buchter & Brad Hand as dominant lefty set-up men. The bullpen question marks come in with the righty relief corps, and that’s what the AJP-pitcher-round-up this winter was partly about. The dugout brains is there in manager Andy Green, ace pitching coach Darren Balsley and the rest, so most fans are confident they’ll figure it out. There’s tons of pitching talent, deep in their minor-league system.

This now is a 3rd-place team in the NL West, vaulting past the Diamondbacks & Rockies, with an outside shot at being a wild card contender. The Padres competitive window which appeared to be opening around 2019 or so, is now here in 2017. Note that this doesn’t interfere with their organizational rebuild, as the talent pool has been well-stocked and the Preller pipeline is already bearing fruit with Margot, and the last of the Josh Byrnes prospects. There’s plenty more to come, with prospect depth and payroll commitment/flexibility to get the player(s) they’ll need– whenever they’re ready.

This is a hungry organization with a huge chip on its shoulder, because it has never won a WS since its inception in 1969, and has too often been a joke. The conventional baseball wisdom this winter was the teams that improved themselves the most were CWS, SEA, BOS, blah, blah… Now these MLB experts are going to have to rethink and (gasp!) rewrite their narratives & predictions because this changes many things.

To all those I say: find me another GM who can dominate the Rule 5 draft, sign the best low-cost free agent starting pitchers (4 for <$10M), lock up your two best young players in Myers & Solarte with team-friendly deals, then grab the best right-handed hitter in the NL who has 5 years of affordable team control, without blowing your budget? The Padres OD payroll is now ~ $75M. AJP is the best GM in MLB because he works most completely with his organization, from ownership all the way down to his scouts, coaches & players. He even listens to his fans. He sees the big picture (in English & Spanish) better than the rest, and therefore anticipates a situation in which the Padres are going to have maximum leverage to improve themselves, and then he seizes the day.

The Crafty Spider

A crafty spider had very little, so he began spinning a web. He took great care in spinning, making his ties strong and using only the best silk. His web was meager to start, only able to trap smaller prey, but it worked well and consistently nourished the crafty spider. As the crafty spider began to grow in size, it kept spinning more web. Other spiders would look on and remark, “Why do you need such a big fancy web, you’ll never catch anything that large!” The crafty spider ignored all this and quietly and went on spinning. Night & day; day & night. Spinning, spinning, spinning. All kinds of webs were spun; webs that hooked & snared, webs that linked & held stuff together, webs that were shiny & beautiful. Eventually these links not only provided structure & support for the crafty spider, but also became webs of enchantment & deception for others– filled with pitfalls, persuasions & slippery slopes.

Within this larger house, was another spider who possessed one of the juiciest specimens [!] in the entire domain. This delightful morsel contained enough nutritive value to satisfy even the most ravenous appetite, but it came with a limited no-trade clause. This selected against the fiercest competitors within the species, including the dreaded Yankee spider and the hated Red Sox spider– most-toxic & desperately in search of a new Papi. These predators could only watch through the window with snapping jaws, as hunger pangs gnawed at their bellies, as only six lucky spiders would have the opportunity to wrap their legs around this bountiful feast.

The day came when the possessing spider realized that much of his web needed rebuilding. The section of his web with Ryan Braun was strong, but too much of the remaining structure was incomplete & weak. It had also become a luxury which was too costly to maintain. This spider needed fresh raw materials to build a better web, but where would he find them? He visited the webs of five available spiders, but found them to be in a state of disrepair and mostly barren. Some even looked pitifully worse that his own, while the remaining webs simply didn’t have enough space available for such a catch. Until the day finally came when the possessing spider had to bring his prize into the crafty spider’s web, at which point they were immediately caught.

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