MLB 2019 Winter Meetings Round-up

Here’s the latest analysis on what’s going on in major league baseball this hot stove season.

MLB is pushing the new Red Sox GM to trade ace lefty David Price to the Angels, only they don’t have the prospects to make it happen. No way the Red Sox deal him to the Yankees. The only teams left with the prospects & payroll flexibility are in the NL– namely the Dodgers & Padres. One of these two teams will end up with David Price, if he’s dealt, which could happen this winter.

David Price is owed $32M/year for the final three seasons of his 7-year deal. The Red Sox need to get under the Luxury Tax threshold of $208M by dealing one of their high-payroll stars. Price is the pitcher everyone covets, and thus the easiest asset to deal. This is where having payroll flexibility and a good farm system pays off for contenders.

The Astros are also interested & able, but the Red Sox view them the same as the Yankees, a team in their league who is ahead of them. You can’t help them get better. Thus, David Price needs to be traded to the NL.

The Nationals just resigned ace RHP Stephen Strasburg, so they are done on starters. The Braves need a true ace to move beyond the Divisional round of the post-season, but do they have they the prospects & ownership approval for such a payroll increase? LHP Cole Hamels is probably not enough.

The Chicago Cubs maxed themselves on payroll with RHP Hu Darvish, and busted. The Milwaukee Brewers don’t have the budget for David Price. Neither have the prospects. The Cardinals are similar to the Giants: old, expensive & mediocre, so no one who is great & wants to win goes there.

In the NL West, the rebuilding Diamondbacks just dealt their ace Zack Greinke to the Astros last July, and aren’t in the market, even though they have the prospects. They may yet deal their best lefty starter Robbie Ray this winter. The Rockies are bloated with payroll, and still too many needs, with few prospects. Besides, pitchers never want to go there. I don’t know if David Price has a no-trade clause.

So it comes down to the Dodgers, who are looking for another ace to keep them ahead of the rest of the NL West; and the Padres who are looking to crash their party by establishing themselves as contenders in 2020. If AJ Preller & the Padres land David Price, they will have done that.

Remember that Dave Dombrowski was fired as Red Sox GM last summer. He was the one who made the Craig Kimbrel deal with Preller, for what turned out to be CF Manny Margot, and three other prospects who washed out, in what was hyped as a steal for the Padres at the time. Kimbrel gave the Red Sox everything he had, until his arm went dead in late 2018. Craig Kimbrel helped them win the World Series that year, which deserves respect & gratitude from every Red Sox fan. It was a fair trade in the end.

The other Dombrowski-Preller deal was the now infamous Drew Pomeranz-Anderson Espinoza deal. Many in the Red Sox Nation howled that Dombrowski had been “ripped off again by the Padres” when this deal was announced in summer 2016. A MLB/ESPN media lynch mob was formed to sanction AJ Preller, for “undisclosed anti-inflammatories” in Drew Pomeranz’s medical history with the Padres, as retribution.

AJ Preller even offered to rescind the deal, and take Drew Pomeranz back, but Dave Dombrowski refused, while the east coast media went into overdrive. This is why AJ Preller was suspended by MLB for a month in 2016. RHP prospect Anderson Espinoza never made it out of the minors, and is currently recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. The Red Sox won that trade too, yet many within the organization still complain.

The fact is, you can’t do business with liars & haters. That’s the Padres perspective. The final irony here is the Padres signing Drew Pomeranz to a 4-year $34M deal this winter, to be an ace set-up man. The only thing that makes David Price to the Padres a possibility now, was the removal of Dave Dombrowski as GM. There are still many in the Red Sox organization who harbor hate for the Padres, for making them look bad in how they have abused their clout with MLB.

The lowest point in the Padres-Red Sox relationship was the “Shohei Ohtani Affair” in which the Boston Red Sox used ESPN/MLB hatchet-man Buster Olney to openly tamper, in order to stop AJ Preller from getting Shohei Ohtani in free agency when he was posted from Japan. That’s how the most coveted Japanese two-way player ever ended up as an Los Angeles Angel.

These are the undercurrents of what’s going on in the David Price trade market. Ace lefties are rare birds, and it’s a better value to get them for 3 years, versus paying for 7-9 years in free agency. It cost teams about the same in average annual value, while limiting the long-term payroll commitment & risk. The Dodgers & Padres are all over this, you can be sure.

What’s going on this hot stove season is remarkable, which is why I’m commenting so extensively. It’s clear that teams are trending more towards being open & honest about their off-season plans. Unsurprisingly, honesty makes it easier for teams to accurately judge the market and make deals, whether it’s trades, free agency, or Rule 5 Draft selections. The 26-man roster creates new possibilities for all 30 teams.

As explained earlier, the good teams with strong farm systems are now making their moves at the Winter Meetings, because they are now clear of Rule 5 Draft considerations. The Nationals re-upped with Stephen Strasburg, and then the Yankee inked Gerrit Cole to a new record-breaking MLB 9/$324M deal a day later.

When each team better understands the other’s interests & position, then teams can reach a comfort level in dealing with each other. Conversely, when one is a arrogant, with more money than brains, then one doesn’t think about the other side when dealing SS Fernando Tatis, Jr for a cooked RHP James Shields. Or RHP Chris Paddack for closer Fernando Rodney.

In the past, many teams took a Red Auerbach (deceptive misdirection) approach to their off-season plans, which doesn’t work in a competitive & balanced league like MLB. That only insults the intelligence of the people you need to do business with in today’s world.

The Padres have been open about their intentions, and have followed through on them. They said they were going to trade players they felt had under-performed; and 2B Luis Urias, LHP Eric Lauer, RF Hunter Renfroe, and a few prospects are now gone.

The players they received in return are better, but more expensive & for shorter team control. Preller is winning deals, but he’s not ripping anyone off. Most of these deals look win-win to me, with teams lining up different needs. Preller is dealing from strength, which is his supply of young controllable MLB talent & interesting prospects.

Unloading OF/1B Wil Myers will be his final order of business before Spring Training. Wil Myers has gone from franchise player to clubhouse problem, and needs a change of scenery. The organization is frustrated with his lack of growth & make-up. He has tantalizing hot streaks, where you see the potential come through, then he falls into a funk for two months or gets hurt.

A rebuilding team may target Wil Myers as a buy-low candidate. The Padres will eat salary (3/$61M remaining) to move him. If they can’t deal him, he’ll likely be a utility player. That has value to the Padres, but is very expensive for their needs. That’s their situation, and AJ Preller hasn’t locked himself into anything. That’s how you fix a mistake, without making the bigger situation worse. Hard work, due diligence & patience.

Wil Myers turned 29 on December 10, and hit .239/.321/.418 in 155 games in 2019. His manager Andy Green was fired near season’s end, in a move meant to shake up the organization. It was the performance of Wil Myers and a few others that cost Andy Green his job. Andy Green was an excellent manager in his nearly 4 seasons with the Padres.

Green was put in impossible situations every year, with a weak roster & no depth. He held the Padres together in 2016, and again in 2017, when Preller traded everything he could to rebuild the system. It paid off for the organization, so it seems unfair that Andy Green isn’t a part of what is already a much better Padres roster. Andy Green certainly deserves another shot in MLB as a manager, with a roster that can win or an organization that requires patience.

Jayce Tingler is the new San Diego Padres skipper, following an established trend of young manager hires, which AJ Preller started when he hired Andy Green, after Bud Black was fired in mid-2015. Tingler is bilingual in Spanish, which is another trend you see in new MLB dugout skippers.

As mentioned, the organizations that are masking their intentions, are being left behind. I see the NY Mets as an example of this. They’ve spent so much time waffling back-and-forth on trading RHP Noah Syndergaard, finally stating after the World Series that he’s “off the market,” that they clearly had no “Plan B.” The Mets get a compensation pick from the Philadelphia Phillies for signing free agent RHP Zack Wheeler.

The Mets took forever to hire Carlos Beltran as their new manager, whom everyone loves, but he can only do so much with this roster. They aren’t making big splashes like they did last winter, after it blew up in their face. But they don’t seem to be hunting for mid-level free agent upgrades, or looking to make any serious trades either. They’re hoping for rebound years & better health from what they have.

A wish isn’t a plan. That’s my favorite Herman Edwards (NFL player/head coach/analyst) saying. The Mets have acquired platoon CF Jake Marsnick from the Astros for two prospects. Neither were on their Top 30 list, but they keep making these deals, and are running out of organizational depth. With all the holes they have on their roster, and no ownership commitment for a significant payroll increase, no MLB team is more caught in “no man’s land” than the New York Mets.

I’ve read more than a few articles on MLB’s site (& elsewhere) which cite an “un-named AL executive” and “un-named NL executive” in their analysis. I take this as Yankees GM Brian Cashman & Padres GM AJ Preller. Those are the two sharks running the MLB talent acquisition market this winter. These two teams made their intentions clear, and have followed through, and that sets the market.

Much of the top talent is now off the board, and that helps the free agent market move along. The lessons to players & agents is: when it’s your turn, don’t dick around. The market will make its best offer, and if you don’t take it, they will move on and leave you behind. Draft pick compensation matters, as free agents Mike Moustakis, Dallas Keuchel & Craig Kimbrel all learned the hard way.

The Rule 5 Draft will happen tomorrow morning, and there will be an update here. The Yankees were one team that needed to add 6-8 prospects to its 40 man roster to avoid them being taken in the Rule 5 Draft. That’s why they waited until the Winter Meetings to sign Gerrit Cole.

Among the Padres prospects left unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft were: Esteury Ruiz, Buddy Reed, Trevor Megill, Dauris Valdez and Michael Gettys. None are anything close to MLB ready, and are more like organizational depth, so selecting any one of these players means sacrificing a MLB roster spot for a season, for a long-shot.

With analytics and obsession over young talent, it’s harder to hit on this Rule 5 lottery than in the past. The point is that the San Diego Padres have the best farm system, and the New York Yankees are they deepest organization– and both left very little available.

The final storyline leaving the Winter Meetings is that if you haven’t helped yourself by now, it’s probably too late, as most of the top talent is already gone, as bargains are few in that market. After 3B Anthony Rendon signs, what’s left is second-tier talent– starting with LHP Madison Bumgarner. He’ll be the top QO free agent left, followed by 3B Josh Donaldson who declined Atlanta’s QO. Everyone needs pitching, and Josh Donaldson still puts up numbers, so they’ll both probably sign soon.

It’s OF Marcell Ozuna who may be the one frozen out this winter. The age-29 slugging outfielder declined his qualifying offer from the Cardinals. The Cards still want him back, but at less money. No one else seems to be interested. He’s too similar to Wil Myers, and thus not worth losing the draft pick to every other team outside of St. Louis. Padres GM AJ Preller’s desire to move Wil Myers dramatically affects the market for Marcell Ozuna and all other free agent sluggers.

The hottest markets are starting pitching, relief pitching, and then catching. Organizations now understand catching as a tandem, meaning there needs to be depth at that position. That’s why all the best catchers were quickly signed (or acquired in trade) as free agency opened. More importantly, catching is now understood to be an extension of the pitching staff, so defense really matters. Twenty-six man rosters in 2020 means some teams will go with three catchers.

Teams in need are looking for players that will give them 2+ WAR at a position in free agency. According to MLB’s 2019 metrics among position players: only LF Marcell Ozuna (age 29, 2.6 WAR); CF Brett Gardner (age 36, 3.5 WAR); RF’s Nicholas Castellanos (age 28, 2.8 WAR) & Kole Calhoun (age 32, 2.5 WAR); DH Edwin Encarnación (age 37, 2.5 WAR); 2B Eric Sogard (age 34, 2.6 WAR); and catcher Robinson Chirinos (age 36, 2.3 WAR) meet those qualifications. Note that most of them are old, so none of them will get lucrative long-term deal. Look for the younger players, with better futures to get the better free agent deals.

RHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (age 33, 4.8 WAR), LHP Madison Bumgarner (age 30, 3.2 WAR), and RHP Homer Bailey (age 34, 2.9 WAR) are the only free agent starting pitchers with a 2+ WAR in 2019. Lots of age & mileage on these arms, which is what makes them second-tier. Still, it’s pitching so it should move along, as long as egos don’t get out of control.

It’s when a Craig Kimbrel type of talent brings unrealistic expectations to the market, that things get messed up. Remember Kimbrel wanted 5/$85M or something crazy like that last year, when he was QO-tagged by the Red Sox, who didn’t want him back. After sitting out until the June Draft, and then signing with the Cubs, he was a disaster.

The Cubs re-upped with him at 3/$43M this winter, which doesn’t sound like a winning move for the Northsiders, but now we at least know what Craig Kimbrel is worth in free agency. The few known relievers who could help contenders were snatched up early, and what’s left is a crapshoot. That’s the second-tier reliever market.

No one in MLB wanted a repeat of last winter (or the winter before), where star players & their agents were holding up the market. It appears teams & free agent players/agents have come to an understanding on how the market is to work. This is the primary reason star players have moved much more quickly this hot stove season. It has been largely fan analysis & player push back on this, which has fueled this step forward.

Final Update: Wed 11 Dec 2019 11:35 PM EST

My timing is uncanny, as just after publishing on Wednesday ~6 PM EST, a flood of lower-tier free agent signings occurred as the Winter Meetings wrapped up in San Diego.

Dodgers have deal with righty reliever Blake Treinen (report): 1/$10M
Mets, Wacha agree to deal (source): MLB Network insider Joel Sherman reports Wacha will receive $3 million guaranteed with $7 million possible in incentives
Roark, Blue Jays agree to deal (source): 2/$24M
Crew has deal with KBO MVP Lindblom (source): 3/$9.125M for an age-32 starting RHP

Analysis: This is bullpen desperation for the Dodgers, and back-of-the-rotation rotation filler for the rest, with age-33 RHP Tanner Roark being the most obvious overpay by the Toronto Blue Jays– who are going nowhere. This is an example of the difference between trying to compete, and giving fans the illusion of trying to compete.

Later in the evening, it was reported by MLB that 3B Anthony Rendon agreed to a seven-year, $245 million deal with the Angels.

Analysis: The LA Angels needed to make a splash and improve themselves, and this helps. Unfortunately, they still have no pitching past Shohei Ohtani, who is coming off Tommy John surgery and will surely have innings limits. A six-man rotation is their plan, so they need at least two more quality starting pitchers after acquiring RHP Dylan Bundy from the Orioles.

Even better if they get three, because Dylan Bundy stinks. The problem is quality starters don’t exist in free agency anymore, as the Yanks & Nats ate them up. Look for the Halos to throw desperate money at big-name free agent pitchers, after they fail to land David Price. CF Mike Trout is still the best player in baseball, and he is worth the extension; but 1B/DH Albert Pujols is their franchise albatross since Josh Hamilton’s contract expired in 2017. OF Justin Upton ain’t no bargain either.

Final NL Winter Meeting Wrap-up: There have been a few head-scratchers already, none more than the Miami Marlins, who lost 105 games in 2019, acquiring 2B Jonathan Villar on December 2 from the Baltimore Orioles, after he was non-tendered due to his cost in arbitration, which will be ~$10M in 2020. This replaces 2B Starlin Castro who departs as a free agent, after being the lone MLB return in the Giancarlo Stanton salary dump to the Yankees.

Jonathan Villar is set to be a free agent after 2021, so he is an expensive rental which cost the last place Marlins a lefty pitching prospect. It won’t move them out of last place, and Villar can’t be flipped for more value, so I don’t understand what the Marlins are doing here and I’m not alone.

Righty rotation filler Jordan Yamamoto is the best player the Marlins received for MVP LF Christian Yelich to the Brewers. Top prospect in the deal CF Lewis Brinson is a bust. Twenty-four year old CF prospect Monte Harrison is a bust too. It’s also how quickly (& predictably) they busted which is very alarming to Fish fans. A bunch of nothing for Christian Yelich and his long, team friendly contract.

RHP Sandy Alcantra LHP & Zac Gallen are nice rotation pieces, as the Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis deal was by far their best trade of this teardown, their third or fourth firesale in franchise history going all the way back to 1993. Second baseman Dee Gordon was a salary dump to Seattle, and nothing materialized from the fringy prospects they acquired.

Catcher JT Realmuto was the last All-Star Derek Jeter & Mike Hill dealt, and he apparently netted a decent return from the Phillies. Catcher Jorge Alfaro is adequate and cost controllable, while prized young righty starter Sixto Sanchez is now a top-20 MLB pipeline prospect. The Phillies got an All-star catcher for a lot of years, so they already “won” this deal on their end. How Sixto Sanchez develops determines if the Marlins “win” their end of the deal, as everything else is now knowable. In summary, the Marlins gave away two MVP’s for nothing, and only acquired quality players in the Marcell Ozuna deal, and possibly the JT Realmuto deal.

The Cincinnati Reds keep making noise like they are players, when all they really have to be excited about is 3B Eugenio Suárez & young RHP Luis Castillo, whom they received from the Marlins for meatball pitcher Dan Strally in January 2017. Luis Castillo had previously been traded to the Padres for RHP Colin Rea in the Andrew Cashner deal on July 29, and then back on August 1, 2016, and this is perhaps the most infamous deal in AJ Preller trade lore.

The Reds were the beneficiary of all that foolishness as the traumatized & confused Marlins front office dealt Luis Castillo again a few months later. The tragic end of Colin Rea’s MLB career was the Marlins’ ugly unspoken organizational shame. When ace RHP Jose Fernandez was tragically killed in a boating accident a few weeks later, the Marlins fate was doomed. Soon after, longtime owner & new stadium swindler Jeffery Loria sold the Marlins for a billion dollars in profit, and Project Wolverine was implemented by new ownership.

Getting back to the Reds who have a history of never developing enough quality starters, they have gone the trade route to acquire a respectable rotation, maybe their best ever and this franchise has been in existence since 1869. Ex-Yankee RHP Sonny Gray has been extended through 2023 at an affordable cost, but RHP Trevor Bauer will be a free agent after 2020. The Reds are still a frontline pitched or two short, with big holes in their line-up. The Joey Votto extension ($25M per year 2020-2023, plus a $7M buyout) is their albatross.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been forced into the second-tier of free agency in 2020, after splashing with RHP Jake Arrieta & RF Bryce Harper the past two winters. Those signings already look bad, and it’s still early, which is scary if you are a Phillies fanatic. RHP Zack Wheeler (5/$118M) is their last plunge, and it better pay off, otherwise the Phils are sunk.

They may be sunk even if Wheeler pitches well, as their roster has too many holes in their line-up, rotation & bullpen. Didi Gregorius (1/$11.75M) at SS is risky & an overpay, which is hard to accomplish with a one-year deal, yet the Phils managed to do it. Very poor planning & money management in Philadelphia already has them near the $208M Luxury Tax threshold. They went for it before they were actually ready, and now they are stuck in the middle. Bryce Harper is their albatross.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are the last NL team to discuss. Once again, they are trading their top veteran player, this time it’s CF Starling Marte, who is age-31 and has two years of team control remaining at $24M. The last place Pirates won’t get much for him, and would do best to keep him, but recall this is the organization that traded ace RHP Gerrit Cole to Houston two years ago. Historically, this is the organization that let Barry Bonds walk. The Marlins are the worst team in the NL, with the Pirates not far ahead of them. With the fall of the Cubs, the NL Central is now the weakest division in the senior circuit.

After coveted 3B Josh Donaldson signs, there will be very few impact players left in free agency who can move the needle on any of this. It’s pitching that everyone needs. The challenge, especially for AL teams like the Rays & A’s, is to identify & sign this year’s Charlie Morton. The AL is tougher on pitchers because of the DH. Therefore the AL’s best & brightest GM’s take the top pitchers first, and leave the leftovers for the NL.

Since LHP Madison Bumgarner garners no interest from the Yankees, Astros or Rays, he has diminished value to their competitors. Notice how they weren’t interested in Zack Wheeler either. A mid-level NL team, or desperate AL team will make Madison Bumgarner (and his like) the best offers in the coming weeks of free agency. But it’s actual performance which drives wins in MLB, and it’s mostly diminishing futures for old starters. This much we know, and the rest will play out and reveal itself next season.

Many top teams don’t stick around for the Rule 5 Draft, as they aren’t making selections. Therefore this writer is also signing off on the 2019 Winter Meetings, because there is no Josh Hamilton available. Here’s a MLB preview of the Rule 5 Draft, and I’ll let readers figure the results out for themselves.

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MLB GM’s & Annual Farm-System Rankings

Keith Law’s 2017 MLB Farm System Rankings were just released at ESPN.com [1]. This is a cause for much discussion among baseball fans, as Law is a recognized prospect guru and farm systems are what sustain current success stories, while sowing future championships for others. The health of any MLB organization can be measured by (1) W/L record, (2) post-season success, (3) payroll obligations, and (4) the strength of the farm system.

The general manager (GM) is directly responsible for all of this, and the first three criteria listed above are easy enough to measure, it’s a team’s minor-league system which is trickiest to quantify. It’s necessary to do this because the minors are brimming with valuable prospects, which hold the most value in today’s (and tomorrow’s) game. The best GM’s build through their farm system, then deal from strength to fill in needs during a competitive window. They lock up organizational talent early, at a fair rate, and rarely indulge in free agency splashes. Young, cost-controlled talent is king, and pitching is always primary.

With that explained, this piece is a comparison of what the 30 MLB GM’s have done for their organizations in terms of planning & value this winter. It will take Keith Law’s farm- system rankings as generally correct, and weigh the factors mentioned above to appraise chances in 2017, and beyond. Law mentions in his preface that any of the top-three teams could be switched around, depending on scouting preferences. This means the Braves, Yankees & Padres are clearly the best farm systems, a cut above the rest.  Obviously, Opening Day rosters are still not set, meaning payroll is still in flux for most teams. Cot’s Contracts is used as the reference [2].

The 2016 farm rankings are listed in parenthesis, and any rise or drop must be understood in its total context. At what point is this team in it’s competitive cycle? Are they competing for a WS? Are they in decline? Are they rebuilding?  Sometimes a team will drop in the farm rankings for all the right reasons, such as the Cubs here: they fell from 4th to 18th, because their prospects became championship players, and other pieces were also dealt in order to win it. Teams that fall in the rankings AND have a poor W/L records (Angels, D-backs) are scouting & spending poorly. They have the worst 25-man rosters & prospects, and therefore are furthest from competing. If these teams don’t have new GM’s, then their current one should be on the hot seat.

1. Atlanta Braves (1st in 2016); GM John Coppolella has amassed some nice talent from trades (Shelby Miller), and in the 2017-18 J2 draft.  But some fans still wonder why he took on RF Matt Kemp with his hefty contract and low OBP/poor defense?  Off-season pitching acquisitions include: 1/$12.5M for age-44 RHP Bartolo Colon, 1/$8M for age-42 righty knuckleball R.A. Dickey, and $12M (and 3 prospects to STL) for age-30 LHP Jaime Garcia– before he becomes a FA. They will eat innings, but aren’t likely to be very effective. Braves are wasting money all over the place, while they await fruition from their farm system. There is plenty of upside here, but also organizational flaws, which may prevent future success.

2. New York Yankees (13th in 2016); GM Brian Cashman was finally given free reign last summer, and he immediately dealt premier closer Aroldis Chapman and set-up man Andrew Miller for huge hauls. They also went in big on an earlier J2 draft, which is about to pay off in the Bronx. The Yankees signed Chapman to a 5-year deal, and the Evil Empire will be back by 2018 for sure, when A-Rod & CC Sabathia are off-the-books. They still have a propensity to waste money; Ellsbury, Headley… but now have a solid cache of prospects to compliment them.

3. San Diego Padres (20th in 2016); GM AJ Preller is currently the best GM in MLB [3]. He grabbed the top-3 selection in the Rule 5 Draft; including the back-up C and utility SS he was seeking. The rest has been pitching this winter. RHP Trevor Cahill, RHP Jhoulys Chacin ($1.75M) & LHP Clayton Richard ($1.75-2.5M) are all 1-year deals which fill 3/5 of the Padres 2017 rotation. This winter AJ Preller also acquired: age-22 RHP Miguel Diaz from MIL (top Rule 5 selection), age-24 RHP Tyrell Jenkins claimed on waivers from ATL, and age-25 RHP Zach Lee claimed on waivers from SEA; all of whom are pre-Arb, with upside. This money was spent to protect assets Luis Perdomo, Christian Friedrich, Ryan Buchter, Brad Hand, etc… and keep this franchise respectable until the waves of pitching talent start arriving from the minors by 2018. What smart teams understand is that it’s always about pitching, having enough of it and having the best of it. The Padres can’t afford to pay for the best, so they’ve done the next best thing which is acquire depth on their 40-man roster (at a bargain), through hard work & brains. Maintaining payroll & roster flexibility are also critical, which is what AJP has accomplished with the 3B Yangervis Solarte (4/$13M) & 1B Wil Myers (6/$83M) extensions. This organization will be a force to be reckoned with by 2018.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates (8th in 2016); GM Neal Huntington has built this team, but he’s now on the hot seat. The have the stud in CF Andrew McCutchen, but were shopping him (??) this winter, after winning only 78 games in 2017. McCutchen, LF Starling Marte, 3B Jung Ho Kang are a good nucleus, but they need their farm system to come through again. Pirates need to develop a closer, after trading Mark Melancon at the deadline. They also need another starter or two to support their young RHP’s Gerrit Cole & Jameson Tailon. Huntington’s FA splash was 3/$26M for age-30 RHP Ivan Nova, who represents a significant risk with limited upside for the penny-pinching Pirates. Possible fire sale in the Pirate’s future if they tank.

5. Los Angeles Dodgers (2nd in 2016); GM Andrew Friedman since leaving the cost-cutting Rays, has had the highest payroll in MLB. Cot’s Contracts currently has their 2017 payroll commitment to be $222+M, and they still don’t have a second baseman as of this writing. Their farm system is starting to slip for the right reasons, meaning prospects have developed in regulars and All-Stars. Unfortunately it’s still not enough, and this team relies too much on ace LHP Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers basically re-signed everybody they lost to free agency, which significantly raises payroll. Friedman is putting everything on his farm system being the boost that gets them past the Cubs.  I’m skeptical.

6. Milwaukee Brewers (5th in 2016); GM David Stearns traded away franchise favorite C Jonathan Lucroy, and the players that develop from that deal (Lewis Brinson, Luis Ortiz and Ryan Cordell) will likely be his legacy, along with trading RF Ryan Braun.  Young SS Jonathan Villar is currently their best player to build around. There is no pitching for skipper Craig Counsell to manage, because these are the Brewers.

7. New York Mets (16th in 2016); RF Jay Bruce will be age-30 next season and make $13M with a batting line around .240/.300/.420 in Citi Field. Recall when the Mets withdrew prospect Brandon Nimmo on 8-1-16, and the Reds still made the deal; making it clear to everyone they were dumping Bruce’s contract. What makes Mets GM Sandy Alderson think anyone else would be interested in dealing for that?  Mets will have to eat ~$8-10M to move Jay Bruce, and they NEED to move him. This 25-man roster is thin beyond CF Yoenis Cespedes, and their brilliant young pitching which is starting to breakdown.

8. Cincinnati Reds (12th in 2016); The GM situation here is Dick Williams, with Walt Jocketty as the consiglierie. Old-school at work here, and it really hurt when they got raped by the Yankees in the Aroldis Chapman deal. What Yankees GM Brian Cashman received (above the Reds) in flipping Chapman to the Cubs proves how much dinosaurs like Jocketty are hurting their organizations. When opportunities like that are squandered, the Reds end up on the short end and are stuck with 2B Brandon Phillips & SS Zack Cosart, who are viewed as assets by their outdated brain-trust, when they are simply bad contracts to everyone else. This team can’t rebuild until it recognizes sunk costs and moves on.

9. Colorado Rockies (7th in 2016); GM Jeff Bridich signed age-31 Ian Desmond at 5/$70M (career .267/.316/.427) to play 1B. This happened less than a year after no one would give Desmond a multi-year deal at SS. The Rockies finished 2016 with a payroll of $120+M– a team record.  Around $22M went to SS Jose Reyes, who was released and is being paid another $21M by Colorado this season. RF Carlos Gonzalez at $20.4M is an albatross that the Rockies front-office (and their fans) too-much view as a bargain. There’s even been talk of extending him, meaning they must have some really nice bud in the Mile High city. Every dollar this organization spends on bats is a complete waste for the Rockies, who desperately need to acquire & develop pitching. This has been a leitmotif of their existence.

10. Chicago White Sox (22nd in 2016); GM Rick Hahn did what he had to do and dealt ace LHP Chris Sale to the Red Sox for a bounty of top prospects. This and the Adam Eaton deal to Washington are what elevates this farm system and gives their fans some hope for the future. There’s still a lot of work left here, including dealing young lefty Jose Quintana, 1B Jose Abreau, and RHP James Shields– which will require eating contract. That was a really bad trade, giving up 3B prospect Fernando Tatis, Jr to the Padres for a broken-down veteran starter, and it will delay their rebuilding significantly.

11. Minnesota Twins (3rd in 2016); New GM Thad Levine takes over after Terry Ryan was finally fired. Levine inherits one of the worst organizations in MLB as far as ownership commitment and overall talent in the majors & minors. This organization has a reputation for holding their prospects back, and developing pitchers that ‘pitch to contact’ instead of missing bats. Their pitching stinks and age-29 2B Brian Dozier is their best player, with age-23 DH Miguel Sano their sole wild-card. Manager Paul Molitor has a few more 100-loss seasons ahead of him (if he stays), until new management can draft and figure out a new direction. New ownership would help a lot.

12. Houston Astros (17th in 2016); GM Jeff Luhnow & manager AJ Hinch work well together, and are a model for new-school thinking. In today’s game, teams need their dugout manager to listen to the front office, who are supplying the talent. That means managers must understand sabermetrics, as all front offices use this in their decision-making. Payroll matters, and value means production/dollar. Astros 2017 payroll is currently at $104+M, which means they have the flexibility to get what they need at the deadline, and the prospects to make the deal. This is a young exciting team, and Carlos Beltran at DH is a significant upgrade.

13. St. Louis Cardinals (19th in 2016); GM John Mozeliak & manager Mike Matheny are another nice tandem. Unfortunately this team has gotten old, and now their second HOF-er (first Albert Pujols, then Matt Holliday) has left.  C Yadier Molina & 3B Matt Carpenter are still studs, and there’s some young talent to fill in, but no impact players on the foreseeable horizon. Their rotation is still above-average, with depth; but lacks a true ace. Cardinals won 86 games in 2016, but fell short of the post-season. I see one or two more championship runs with this core, but they’ll need some major luck to succeed. They’re capable, and (like the Giants) are always dangerous.

14. Philadelphia Phillies (6th in 2016); GM Matt Klentak saw their system graduate prospects to the big club in 2016, accounting for the drop in their farm rankings. Unfortunately they only won 71 games, so they still need a lot more help and have predictably gone the Andy MacPhail splash route this off-season in acquiring RHP Clay Bucholtz ($12M + prospects), righty set-up man Joaquin Benoit ($7.5M), OF Michael Saunders ($9M) and 2B Howie Kendrick (2/$22M). That gets the Phillies to ~75 wins in 2017, now what?

15. Texas Rangers (9th in 2016); GM Jon Daniels keeps plunging, dealing prospects for the missing link that will win them a WS. Last year it was C Jonathan Lucroy, which was a fantastic deal. This winter it’s ex-Padres RHP’s Andrew Cashner ($10M) and Tyson Ross ($6M), which forebodes disaster. The Rangers have another year or two, before their competitive window collapses from too much payroll and not enough young talent. It’s clear now that much of the scouting & organizational brains left Texas when AJ Preller went to San Diego.

16. Boston Red Sox (10th in 2016); GM Dave Dombrowski (and Orioles GM Dan Duquette) built the Montreal Expos dynasty in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, and the 1994 Expos stand as MLB’s greatest forgotten team [4]. Dombrowski built winners in Florida, Detroit and has now been on the job for over a year in Boston. The early returns in beantown aren’t good, as the Sox were swept in the Divisional round by Cleveland last fall, and HoF DH David Ortiz has retired. Young talent will need to step in and sustain this machine, but Dombrowski has traded much of it away. Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz & Chris Sale are valuable commodities; but Manny Margot, Anderson Espinoza and Yoan Mocanda are all blue-chip prospects in whom the Red Sox had invested tens-of-millions of dollars. This talent will now yield surplus value for the Padres & White Sox instead. If the Red Sox don’t win a WS with the players Dombrowski has acquired, then these trades are busts. That’s how high the stakes are in Boston. Note: the Red Sox were given the chance to reverse the Drew Pomeranz-for-Anderson Espinoza deal with the Padres, due to “undisclosed anti-inflammatories.” The Red Sox declined [5].

17. Cleveland Indians (11th in 2016); GM Mike Chernoff & manager Terry Francona are another winning combination. The LHP Andrew Miller deal was a difference-maker for Cleveland last fall. Recall the Indians almost had Jonathan Lucroy also, who used his no-trade clause to nix the deal. He was then traded to Texas the next day. Young talent in the rotation, bullpen, and on the field make Cleveland a sustainable success story. Their current $111+M 2017 payroll gives them some flexibility, which they’ll need to make another run.

18. Chicago Cubs (4th in 2016); GM Jed Hoyer got busy early this off-season nabbing CF Jon Jay at a bargain (1/$8M), and the arms he needed– including closer Wade Davis from KCR for young OF Jorge Soler. When management drafts & develops talent, it can sustain itself on a budget. The Cubs are a textbook example of this, making them WS favs again in 2017.

19. Tampa Bay Rays (14th in 2016); GM Matt Silverman has overseen the gutting of a once-competitive franchise. Wil Myers and Matt Moore have been dealt with little to show in return. LHP Drew Smyly (the centerpiece of the David Price deal) was just flipped; and coveted starters Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, and Alex Cobb are next. GM’s around MLB are salivating at the thought of stealing one of these valuable arms from this directionless franchise. This organization needs new ownership as much as any MLB franchise.

20. San Francisco Giants (21st in 2016); GM Brian Sabean acquired LHP Matt Moore from the Rays for busted 3B-prospect Matt Duffy and some other junk. The Giants already had aces in Madison Bumgarner & Johnny Cueto, and have now added Mark Melancon to close. This is a championship roster for several more seasons, barring major injuries.

21. Toronto Blue Jays (25th in 2016); GM Ross Atkins is in a tight spot, with a payroll-heavy roster constructed under a previous regime, that probably isn’t good enough to win it. RF Jose Bautista was a tough negotiation for both sides this off-season, as his early 2016 negotiating stance about “knowing his value” definitely soured his market. He’s age-36, and his AVG, SLG and defense have slipped significantly, while becoming injury-prone. In the end the Jays need Joey Bats, and vise versa, so 1/$18M is about right. This winter revealed the Blue Jays have reached their payroll limit. Combine that with a lack of prospects, and I see the AL East in 2017 as Boston & NYY, with Toronto & Baltimore slipping back.

22. Washington Nationals (15th in 2016); GM Mike Rizzo hired Dusty Baker to manage, after Bud Black declined a low-ball contract offer last off-season. The Nationals are currently at $144+M according to Cots Contracts. They made deals this winter with the Padres (C Derek Norris) and White Sox (CF Adam Eaton) to shore up their roster, by dealing prospects. Young phenom Trea Turner moves from part-time CF to full-time SS, as the Nats make another run at a WS. This team may have the most talent in MLB, yet still hasn’t won a play-off series. Someday someone in Washington may point their finger at a manager who doesn’t know how to construct a line-up, or manage a pitching staff.

23. Oakland Athletics (18th in 2016); Moneyball GM Billy Beane (now kicked upstairs) deserves the HOF, but with that said, he had fallen hopelessly behind in his profession. The truth is GM Beane never recovered from the 3B Eric Chavez extension: 6/$66M (2005-10), which blew up with a bad back and financially crippled the franchise. David Forst has taken over as new GM, and he currently has a roster with a payroll at $66+M, which is mostly comprised of fungible position players & fragile arms. This is another team that needs new ownership to have any chance at competing.

24. Detroit Tigers (26th in 2016); GM Al Avila has continued the Dave Dombrowski playbook in Detroit, with predictable results. The LF Justin Upton (6/$132M) splash last winter was predictably a bust, and now it’s time to face the music. Their competitive window is closing, and there’s only one or two more runs before it’s time to rebuild. There are assets here, but also a lot of contracts that will need to be eaten when this happens.

25. Baltimore Orioles (27th in 2016); GM Dan Duquette takes his orders from owner Peter Angelos. That’s how things work in Baltimore. Last off-season it was all about signing 1B Chris Davis for 7/$161M, and giving up a 1st-round draft pick to sign RHP Yovani Gallardo. That didn’t work, so this winter Duquette dealt Gallardo ($13M) to the Mariners for veteran RF Seth Smith ($7M) as a form of salary dump, then re-signed RF/DH Mark Trumbo (3/$37M). This team desperately needs starting pitching, and yet has done nothing this off-season to acquire any. There’s obviously nothing coming from the minors, as evidenced by this farm-system ranking, so no one knows what they are doing to fill their most basic need? Spring Training is less than a month away.

26. Kansas City Royals (23rd in 2016); GM Dayton Moore extended breakout starter age-28 LHP Danny Duffy at 5/$65M which is a win-win deal. I always like GM’s who make those deals, as they lock down talent and build team chemistry, without busting an organization’s budget. I’m just not sold that it will work here. This team could win it all again, or it could bust again. The smart GM has to play for the former, while making contingencies for the latter. After winning the WS in 2015, this franchise is now at a crossroads. Update: Within hours of this publication came the news of age-25 RHP Yordano Ventura dying in a car crash in his homeland of the Dominican Republic. MLB and all fans mourn his passing.

27. Los Angeles Angels (30th in 2016); GM Billy Eppler & manager Mike Scioscia are in no-man’s land, with huge payroll bloat around the best player in the game, CF Mike Trout. They have no effective pitching, starting or bullpen. With ~$150M already committed in 2017, for a second-division team with no prospects, this may be the worst organization in MLB.

28. Seattle Mariners (28th in 2016); GM Jerry Dipoto has made the biggest overall splash this winter, and is the current fashionable GM. His dealings look more like reshuffling chairs on the decks of the Titanic, than actual improvement, as the 2017 Mariners look suspiciously like the 2016 Diamondbacks or 2015 Padres to this observer. There’s not enough pitching to compete with Texas or Houston, much less for a WS. This looks like one last gamble with a veteran core that has never come close to putting it together. Whatever the result, the Mariners are a story in 2017.

29. Miami Marlins (29th in 2016); GM Mike Hill has been criticized for his recent deal-making, and the RHP Dan Straily trade is his latest head-scratcher. Hill already inked RHP Edinson Volquez to a 2/$22M deal earlier this winter, which seemed like an overpay. The Marlins needed another arm, so #2 organizational prospect RHP Luis Castillo (the trade-back in the Colin Rea fiasco with the Padres last July/August) was shipped with 2 others to Cincinnati.  Castillo throws ~ 100 MPH and has a closer profile, but is a long ways away. All that is probably more valuable than a 5th starter whom the Reds picked up on waivers last April. In addition, the Marlins have multiple back-loaded contracts (such as Giancarlo Stanton’s), which are about to balloon. If things go south in 2017, the Marlins are going to have another fire sale, and there’s a significant chance they will. The Marlins can’t possibly replace heart-and-soul inspiration, and ace RHP Jose Fernandez– RIP.

30. Arizona Diamondbacks (24th in 2016); New GM Mike Hazen is a Dombrowski protoge, and he replaces Dave Stewart, which is a relief to D-back fans. Age-33 RHP Zack Greinke (5/$172.5M remaining) may be the biggest current albatross contract in MLB, and the Shelby Miller deal with the Braves last winter was a complete disaster, which is why this farm system is ranked dead last. It’s going to be a long rebuild in Arizona with Grienke, RHP Taijuan Walker, 1B Paul Goldschmidt, and CF AJ Pollock as their only real assets.

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