Padres & the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes

Read my preview analysis here

Silence from the Padres on the first day of the 2025 international draft means intense conversations with other GM’s regarding acquiring more bonus money for Roki Sasaki. This may be part of a series of trades AJP is about to make. Increments of $250,000 in international bonus money can now be traded. It’s not the money teams are trading, but the rights to spend that money on signing a player. How it is valued we are about to find out. AJP is a GM pioneer like that.

Consider this, if you were Padres GM AJP and wanted Roki Sasaki more than anything this winter, then you would do whatever it took to impress him, right? Money talks, so AJP is looking for 14 chunks of $250K from teams around the league who have international bonus money to spare. He’s letting all the other top talent get signed so every spender is spent, then AJP can get the international bonus money cheaper.

Timing is surely important to his plan, and that’s why it was so critical to keep East Coast Bias off his back while he executes it. AJP has until January 23 to sign Roki Sasaki before his Japanese posting window closes. Remember, the Blue Jays are the kicker team if MLB blows up AJP’s plan, as he brilliantly neutralized East Coast Bias with Laurentian Bias. It was a masterstroke of baseball GM genius.

By my calculations, the Padres & Blue Jays can acquire up to $3.5M, as no more than 60% from the base amount is allowed. The Dodgers can acquire up to $3M extra. If AJP is running this show, and I have postulated that he has from the start, then the Dodgers & Blue Jays are in no man’s land right now. Unable to act in the international draft in the vain hope of signing the ultimate prize: Roki Sasaki.

Every MLB team had a contingency plan to pivot from Sasaki if their bid failed. Some teams pivoted earlier than others. In many ways, the teams that were never in on Sasaki were the best off, as the weren’t distracted by something they weren’t going to get anyway. A Sasaki level of talent is like a drug that has you in the grips of addiction, you can’t quit as it consumes you. If affects your judgment because it’s so emotional.

Whatever the Dodgers Plan B on Sasaki is, it is slipping away as teams sign the top remaining international talent for 2025. This after they left $2.1M unspent last year on an early Sasaki signing gambit, that was as insulting as it was short-sighted. Andrew Friedman is currently in an impossible situation which he partly put himself in. If he keeps waiting, all the other top talent will have signed elsewhere and the Dodgers risk getting shut out of the 2025 international draft. The same dynamic applies to the Blue Jays, and that’s what happens when you go all in & fall short. If the Dodgers/Blue Jays sign another top talent, it’s a concession they aren’t getting Roki Sasaki. What do you do? Tick, tick, tick…

The only MLB team that didn’t have a Plan B on Roki Sasaki was the Padres. With their current payroll situation, this was simply a matter of failure not being an option for AJP and the Padres. You can follow this action from afar by monitoring which teams are signing the top-50 international prospects, and who still has bonus money to spare. Anticipate some complex 3-way deals trying to line up competing interests for the Padres purpose of AJP acquiring bonus money for Roki Sasaki.

Wed 15 Jan 2025 09:32 PM CST

End of Day 1 summary & analysis

Beyond the SDP, LAD & TOR, other WS contending teams that have been noticeably quiet so far are: NYY, BOS, ATL & PHI. Small market teams have feasted on Day 1 of the MLB international draft. On the big market side, the SFG & NYM each signed a top-5 prospect, but it’s the middle & small market teams that are reaping the early benefit of neutralized East Coast Bias.

Kudos to the Rays, Brewers, Twins, Marlins, Cardinals, etc, who are signing talent and using their pool money early & aggressively to improve their organizations. This is their big chance at low-cost future stars. Every draft class has a few guys who come out of nowhere to become impact players or stars. When the top prize is out of reach, a baseball GM must be realistic and find that talent amongst what remains available. That’s what organizational scouting departments are for.

AJ Preller is the type of GM who has the gonads to say to all of them: “I’m getting Sasaki. Who’s gonna deal me the $3.5M in Monopoly money in their bonus pool so I can pay this kid what he deserves?” It’s better to get it all at once and AJP will eventually find a price he likes in that market.

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro are at the helm in a long-shot situation in Toronto. They certainly know they are the kicker in this AJP deal. When do they act? Or do they just wait & see? Would they dare try to acquire $3.5M in bonus pool money? What would it cost them & what are the chances they will get stuck with it?

How about Andrew Friedman who is in a similar (but different) spot with the Dodgers? That $3.5M in funny money isn’t worth a whole lot, but perhaps it’ll return a better prospect from the Padres system than what was available in the 2025 international draft. Who knows? It will be worth a gamble for some team(s), and it only takes one with the unusable money to make a deal.

Too many teams still have most or all their bonus pool money for this not to be on MLB GM’s minds. Most heavyweights have usually signed a top player or two from this top-50 list by the end of day 1. The pickins’ only get slimmer on day two if you don’t hit the jackpot. From #2-50, only twenty prospects remain unsigned as of this writing. #2-7 are signed, with the Mets paying #3 prospect Elian Peña, SS, D.R. $5M. Other prospects around him got ~3$M. The other top prospects left will go for $1M-$2M. Prospects at the bottom end of the top-50 are going for $800,000+.

Beyond that it is a murky free-for-all, and that’s why it’s so important for an eligible international prospect to be on this top-50 MLB list. Most of the top prospects are from the Dominican Republic, Venezuela & Cuba– in that order. Prospects signed for <$10K don’t count towards the team’s bonus pool, and there are more than a few of those guys every year.

Sometimes the easiest answer to a difficult problem is a direct approach. A Padres three-way trade (as posited earlier) probably involves too many moving parts which can drop out, especially when Black Hand influence is in the midst. It allows for too many media leaks also. AJP needs one team (or two at most) to deliver the money for Roki Sasaki. Then he can sign the coveted ace with the proper financial respect, and all other Padres deals in the works can then be made.

Thu 16 Jan 2025 1:05 PM CST

It is now being reported on MLB dot com that the Padres & Dodgers have been calling other teams about acquiring bonus pool money– which is what I postulated yesterday. The Blue Jays apparently haven’t, which makes sense as I’ve outlined already. As a surprise dark hose, the Blue Jays have to be cautious with all these sharks in the water. The Dodgers are the beast of MLB right now, and clearly Andrew Friedman feels they should be all-in on Roki Sasaki to the end.

It’s a calculated risk based on the premise that Roki Sasaki is infinitely more valuable than any other eligible international draft prospect in 2025. It’s also his competitive nature to not give into the Padres on anything, who at this point are the Dodgers fiercest rival. Giving in is the worst sin.

Hypothetically, if the Padres currently have a 70% chance in these sweepstakes, with the Blue Jays at 20%, and the Dodgers 10%; Friedman would still play this same strategy. Andrew Friedman is (at minimum) trying to drive up the price for AJP to obtain the $3.5M he’s seeking from other teams. The Dodgers can only obtain up to $3M more, as they have a smaller original bonus pool.

Remember, this isn’t money that is being traded, it’s the right to spend that money on signing a player. In other words, the $3.5M (or $3M) these teams are seeking is monetary credit that can be traded and turned into bonus money which that team can pay to a new signee. Other MLB teams are now realizing they can possibly get a prospect in return for their bonus money credit, which both the Padres & Dodgers are seeking. Only one team can use this money to sign Sasaki, so it’s a game of blind-mans’ bluff between the Padres & Dodgers GM’s. If AJP suddenly acquires $3.5M, what does Andrew Friedman do? Or vice versa?

What the value of that bonus pool credit will be is what’s being discussed by these GMs, with other GM’s. The longer the international draft goes, the softer the market becomes for acquiring bonus money. The remaining international prospects aren’t as attractive, so acquiring a Padres or Dodgers prospect for Monopoly money gets teams excited to make a deal. As I wrote earlier, the Padres/Dodgers prospect they could receive may be better than anything left in the international draft, plus it won’t cost that team any real money to acquire that prospect. Nothing gets MLB GM’s more aroused than potentially getting something for nothing.

The Red Sox spent their pool money since my last update, so they are eliminated from this group of teams that have been inactive with possibly this trade strategy in mind. There is more than enough surplus bonus pool money around MLB for both the Padres & Dodgers to acquire their max limit, and even the Blue Jays too ($3.5M) if they were inclined. I don’t believe Andrew Friedman or AJP would give up anything close to a top-30 prospect in a trade market this soft, but it’s still unknown.

What I do know is that if the Black Hand of MLB blocks AJP’s pool money deal, he’s already picked out the Blue Jays prospect he wants for the $3.5M bonus money he has available in his bonus pool. AJP is far ahead of his competitors on this, as Andrew Friedman is stalking AJP’s every GM move.

If you want Roki Sasaki, then you have to go the extra mile and then some. Both Friedman & Preller know what is at stake, while knowing everything about how the system works. The Padres have more money to offer and can add more than the Dodgers. That is a fact. The Blue Jays can’t risk this gamble, which is an appraisal.

Between the Padres & Dodgers, one team is going to bust and go home with nothing in the 2025 international draft. Set-backs like that have rarely happened to the Dodgers under Andrew Friedman, as AJP seeks to level the competitive playing field with his arch-rival by doing whatever it takes to get Roki Sasaki ALL his bonus money.

This process is really about more than the money. It’s about doing your job as a GM to take care of a coveted player’s interests. It’s about proving your organization’s worth to that player to earn his loyalty. The team that does that best will win the Sasaki sweepstakes.

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Colin Rea & San Diego Padres history

Colin Rea just signed a 1yr/$5M contract with the Cubs.

RHP Colin Rea was the other starter in the infamous Andrew Cashner trade deadline deal in 2016. Rea was healthy when the Padres traded him, but Marlins manager Don Mattingly wrecked then-rookie Colin Rea the first day they got him, after which the Marlins front office whined & demanded the Padres take Rea back while returning pitching prospect Luis Castillo, whom the Marlins would later deal to the Reds for junk. In the wake of his heist of Fernando Tatis Jr from the CWS, and Red Sox whining over trades they won (Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz), MLB forced Padres GM AJ Preller to acquiesce to the Marlins demands. GM Mike Hill was a principal part of this sordid Marlins history and a huge reason why they stink today.

Marlins started Colin Rea the day they acquired him, on his normal 4-days rest after a cross-country flight to Miami. The Marlins were more of a max-effort staff, based on ace RHP Jose Fernandez (RIP). Rea, who had 99.1 IP as a rookie starter for a soft tossing stinky Padres staff, went directly into a playoff chase atmosphere where he was expected by everyone in the organization to go max effort to help his team win. It lasted 3.1 IP, before his elbow snapped, as he signaled to manager Don Mattingly he was hurt and needed to leave the game. Before this on Sunshine Sports Network, Marlins GM Mike Hill was raving about how Colin Rea was such an important throw-in to this trade and expected him to help them win for years. The next day, Mike Hill is demanding the Padres compensate the Marlins for their stupidity & reckless handling of a rookie pitcher clearly near his season’s innings limit.

To Colin Rea’s credit, he didn’t let all these murky MLB machinations in 2016 define his career. The Brewers deserve serious kudos for resurrecting Colin Rea as a respectable pitcher, to the point where a big market team in 2025 will pay him $5M to fill out their rotation. Colin Rea as Brewers starter beat the Padres a few years back, and AJP was quoted afterwards, “Who saw that coming?!” This from the GM who was suspended by MLB for a month over all this, No overview of Colin Rea’s MLB career can ignore this fascinating GM history.

Upon returning to the Padres, Colin Rea had his TJ surgery, but the soft-tosser was eventually released by them in November 2018. Rea pitched in Japan for a few years until the Brewers took him on as a reclamation project in 2021. He didn’t pitch in MLB in 2022, but then had two productive years with the Brewers in 2023-24.

As background, in the 2016 J2 (July 2) international) draft, Padres GM AJP spent $70-80M on young Latin talent. Before that, no MLB team had ever spent over $5M in a signing year. Teams got REALLY upset over that, so MLB changed their international draft rules & money allotments due to AJP. All that 2016 international draft madness happened around the time of the Colin Rea trade fiasco, and this is why some baseball people love AJP, and others don’t. He’s definitely not boring, which used to define the Padres. For a long time during AJP’s early years, there was a solid majority among the MLB owners & media that the Padres should be boring.

AJP has made the Padres competitive & relevant and kept them there, which no other GM has ever done. With all the trades AJP made to dump his veteran roster in 2016, the Padres never lost 100 games in a season during their building process. MLB media would endlessly accuse them of “tanking”, as they patiently rebuilt their entire system from within. “Why aren’t the Padres signing free agent Ian Desmond? They need a shortstop!!” These-type hysterics of irrational baseball thought would echo from every MLB & ESPN writer onto AJP. Beating the Dodgers is a monumental task, especially from inside their division. The reality of the all-powerful Dodgers has driven AJP to every extreme, and he has run headlong into the old guard of MLB repeatedly, which has done everything in their power to slow down the Padres, including tampering in AJP’s pursuit of RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani in 2017-18.

Buster Olney of the Red Sox/ESPN was lead hatchet man on that. If the Padres would have signed Ohtani, MLB would have confiscated their record 2016 international draft haul, so AJP kicked Ohtani to Angels GM Billy Eppler because it did the Padres the least harm. East coast bias markets (Red Sox, Yankees & Mets) were violently upset that Ohtani had spurned them for the west coast, and the Padres as an early favorite to land the two-way star was too much for them to stand. That murky chain of events is why no one in MLB can ever explain why Shohei Ohtani ended up with the stinky Angels in 2018.

AJP was then forced by ownership to pivot to 1B Eric Hosmer, who was handed a record free-agent contract whose main purpose was to buy the Padres ownership into the “respectable” club of MLB owners. This status was solidified when they signed 3B Manny Machado next winter. SS/2B Xander Bogaerts was another ownership splash from which AJP now has to recover. When deep-pocketed Padres owner (Peter Seidler) died of cancer in the same year their cable deal with Diamond Sports Group went bankrupt, Preller was forced to cut payroll under new ownership. First Juan Soto to the Yankees, and now Xander Bogaerts is the next contract AJP needs to move.

The Padres have taken extra care to make sure the ‘Ohtani affair’ doesn’t happen to them again in 2024-25 as they prepare to sign Japanese pitching phenom Roki Sasaki. Padres are in on him, as AJP is definitely one of the top-3 GM’s in MLB– along with Andrew Friedman & David Stearns. After Roki Sasaki makes his decision this week, the Padres will become hyperactive in the trade & talent acquisition market.

The Roki Sasaki countdown:

Mon 13 Jan 2025 06:50 PM CST

It was just reported on ESPN & MLB dot com that Roki Sasaki has narrowed his list to three MLB teams: San Diego Padres & Toronto Blue Jays, who have a $6,261,000 bonus pool this year, and the LA Dodgers at $5,146,200. No one has picked the Blue Jays, and some could view this as a respectful nod to Canada. Blue Jays fans should feel delighted they made the final list, over their rivals in New York & Boston, but they aren’t signing Roki Sasaki.

The Dodgers have been picked as the favorites in the Sasaki sweepstakes from the start, and conventional wisdom favors it. But there was a revealing sign the Dodgers are being played, or at least out-of-the-loop, when it was reported they had left $2.1M in their 2024 international bonus pool to sign Roki Sasaki early in the posting period, if possible. The Baltimore Orioles also played this losing strategy, leaving $1.9M in their pool which expired December 15.

On Wednesday morning, 9:00 AM EST, the new international signing period opens and Roki Sasaki can be signed for maximum bonus pool money, and teams can make trades to increase their signing bonus allotment by up to 60% from their initial figure.

In the last two international signing periods, the Padres have given all their money to sign the top prospect on the first day: C Ethan Salas in 2023, then SS Leodalis De Vries in 2024. AJP will give all his pool money to Roki Sasaki in 2025, save possibly a few hundred thousand dollars to sign a kid (or two) he likes from Latin America.

Mon 13 Jan 2025 08:42 PM CST

Toronto is a brilliant third choice finalist. It neutralizes the Yankees & Red Sox from messing with AJP’s business. If MLB ruins his deal now, he’ll encourage Roki Sasaki to sign with the Blue Jays and see how fans like that in New York & Boston. No one wants the Dodgers to get Roki Sasaki except Dodgers fans, so it creates acceptance from MLB towards the Padres, which AJP couldn’t get back in 2018 when he got jerked by East Coast Bias on Shohei Ohtani. Very well played by AJP.

One ironic note, the tip-off article on the Dodgers & Orioles leaving bonus money to potentially sign Roki Sasaki early in the posting period was written by Buster Olney, and posted in the Padres ESPN page. No mention of the Padres in that article [!], so why did Olney put it in the Padres ESPN news feed?

Tue 14 Jan 2025 11:23 AM CST

Roki Sasaki has cooled the MLB Hot Stove for weeks now, until he can sign for maximum bonus money starting tomorrow. This is what top talent does, it freezes the market until a decision is made. Until then everyone has hope & anticipation, and ideas based on that, but nothing to act on. Reducing the field to three still doesn’t resolve much, even for the 27 teams on the outside, because they need partners to trade with and the Padres are MLB’s leading trade partner. The Dodgers make deals too, but notice they’ve already been active in the free agent market before the Sasaki sweepstakes started coming to a head. The Dodgers weren’t as sure on Sasaki as the Padres, so they signed Blake Snell early. Andrew Friedman is no dummy.

After Roki Sasaki signs, I see Xander Bogaerts to the Yankees who are looking for another middle infielder. Both GM’s know what they are doing and have made mutually beneficial trades in the past, namely the Juan Soto deal. AJP needs to move contract with Bogaerts and get something in return, which may involve throwing-in another good player– or pitcher. I don’t see AJP dealing any prospects at this point. C Luis Campusano needs a change of scenery and is another trade chip for AJP this winter. Perhaps the most valuable Padres trade chip is ace closer Robert Suarez who is due $10M in 2025 and team controllable through 2027. Yankees already snatched ace closer Devin Williams from the Brewers, leaving free agent Tanner Scott & trade candidate Robert Suarez as the top remaining closer options for contending teams to acquire this winter. RHP Dylan Cease is yet another AJP blockbuster trade candidate. Padres need to fill holes (or upgrade) at C, DH, 1B & LF if they want to beat the Dodgers in 2025, and that’s assuming they sign Roki Sasaki. AJP has a plan, and Sasaki (& the international draft) come first.

Tue 14 Jan 2025 12:40 PM CST

This will be my final installment of this piece. I’ve predicted & explained Roki Sasaki to the Padres, before it happens, because I’ve seen this before from AJP. At no time during this process did I believe AJP wouldn’t get Roki Sasaki. AJP is controlling the market until he gets what he wants. He does it consistently, and as a fan, it’s always exciting to witness– even when he gets screwed by MLB.

Not this time, I’ve predicted. Too many aware eyeballs on the process this time prevents Black Hand machinations in the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes. The illusion of the Sasaki sweepstakes is that it was an open process to all 30 teams. In reality, only a handful were allowed to be considered and East Coast Bias had a word on which teams would be best for MLB.

Can you imagine what MLB would do if Roki Sasaki agreed to sign with the Reds or Pirates? [!!] That isn’t good for baseball according to those who own & run baseball, and on that they have a point, but when it comes to directly interfering with the amateur free agent process through East Coast Bias leverage with the MLB commissioner’s office, that needs to be called out as tampering. In 2018, the Red Sox & MLB tampered with the Padres in their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani. That lesson hasn’t been forgotten by AJP and his Padres organization, or their fans. May the best team win the Sasaki sweepstakes!

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NCAA, NIL, and US politics

College sports have exploded since the landmark Ed O’Bannon v NCAA decision in 2015, which now allows NCAA student athletes to earn NIL money for themselves. This came into reality by 2020, and since then it’s been the NCAA trying to self-regulate NIL payments to athletes, followed by student athletes challenging these new rules in court– and often winning.

A well-written recent ESPN article by Dan Murphy titled “Texas senator aims to help NCAA regulate athlete payments”, indicates that Capitol Hill lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are ready to give the NCAA what it wants.

What’s at stake is big money. According to this ESPN article, “the Big Ten and SEC each raked in more than $850 million in their most recent fiscal year, leaving even their power conference peers in the ACC ($706 million) and Big 12 ($511 million) significantly behind.”

The core issue is collective bargaining rights for NCAA student athletes. The NCAA (& US lawmakers) are against it, while most student athletes don’t understand its revolutionary implications. To have collective bargaining rights, means you must be an employee that earns for an employer. Athletes that play big-time NCAA sports do just that, yet the NCAA insists their student athletes aren’t employees.

When such an impasse is reached in bourgeois politics, this is when its lawmakers & courts get involved, by crafting legislation into laws that don’t violate basic rights as defined by the judiciary– in theory at least. This is always a biased process, colored by class & personal interests.

It is worth recalling the only American institution which is exempt from federal antitrust laws is Major League Baseball (MLB). In 1922, the US Supreme Court made one of its more reactionary rulings which still stands, in Federal Baseball Club of Baltimore v. National League, ruling that baseball was a “purely state affair” and not interstate commerce. The court concluded that profiting from local “human effort and skill” in the sport did not constitute interstate commerce. The court found that transporting teams to play in other states was a “mere incident, not the essential thing”.

What was at issue was the ‘reserve clause’, which kept MLB players bound to their club for life. The owners of MLB were granted anti-trust exemption by a business-friendly government, which kept players salaries artificially suppressed. It wasn’t until MLBPA legal representative Marvin Miller (pic below) challenged this in court in the 1970’s that free agency came to MLB, and eventually all the major sports leagues.

These same issues are in play today with the NCAA’s leading universities acting as owners to keep NIL athletes from forming a union and having collective bargaining rights. The NCAA doesn’t consider it’s money-earning athletes to be employees, even though they can be (and are) paid by universities & alumni boosters to make money for them. These athletes clearly work for the NCAA, and if that isn’t the definition of an employee, then what is? The courts have taken this legal position on every NCAA attempt to control NIL-athletes ability to earn, etc, as the courts don’t buy the NCAA’s argument that NIL athletes aren’t employees.

At this point, Congress has been asked to step into the fray, in the form of Ted Cruz (R-TX). Texas is a HUGE football state, and the University of Texas just joined the SEC, making the final four of the 2024-25 CFP. It’s the huge money at stake, in terms of TV revenue for football that is driving all this. Football generates over three times the revenue for the NCAA that basketball does.

NCAA hoops is booming too, particularly on the women’s side, as they finally have regular network TV broadcasts, largely catalyzed by the popularity of Caitlin Clark at the University of Iowa, etc. It’s the Big 10 & SEC that have expanded into super-conferences, who are taking the lion’s share of this revenue, and demanding more in the future. There is a perception among those in-the-know that the NCAA may become a two-tiered system– with elite schools competing for national titles in all the major sports, but especially football– and then all the rest just existing on the fringes. Some would argue that has happened already.

Ted Cruz has been brought in (& bought by) the NCAA to make sure no collective bargaining rights are appropriated to NCAA athletes. And so Congress has been entrusted to work out a system which favors the NCAA in its further exploitation of student athletes. No unionization means not having to pay insurance, health care costs, even pensions, etc, to student-athletes who have earned for the NCAA. Attempts at denying these employee-athletes their right to bargain collectively, and thus be a united fist against the NCAA, violate anti-trust laws and will be open to strong legal challenges in the courts.

This is a revolutionary issue for young student athletes, as this goes down to high school now. The window for elite athletic competition is small and it’s a young man’s/woman’s game. Young athletes need to learn their history and speak to each other on these issues. Today, all sports are designed to bring prestige & money to a NCAA university. Sports has tremendous value. Volleyball, skiing, gymnastics, etc, are now broadcast regularly on the major networks as weekend sports programming. If they don’t have football, then just about any other sport will do.

Regular TV has gone to total garbage, with AI now taking over. Reality TV is now largely sports-competition based, in case you haven’t noticed. That makes sports programming more coveted than ever. The NCAA is attempting to cap it’s cost/university. Right now each university is allowed to spend $20.5M/year in NIL money to its athletes. Of course, for Texas, Alabama, Ohio State & Michigan, that isn’t enough, so alumni boosters kick in another $5-10M annually to give them the competitive edge they insist on having. For all intents & purposes, these university presidents, athletic directors and conference commissioners are the NCAA.

So what we have is a closed loop between the bourgeois politics of Ted Cruz and the NCAA. What has been left out of this political discussion are the athletes voices. This NIL & transfer portal era in the NCAA has become a Wild West of unethical recruiting, broken promises on agreed-to deals, and endless transfers & lawsuits from aggrieved student athletes. What it has done to the product on the playing field is obvious. There are no more programs at these universities– football, hoops, baseball, etc. They are now rotating sports factories designed to make maximum financial profit every year. This applies to the NIL athletes too.

And what we have are a bunch of kids who don’t fully realize the bigger game they are part of. They want to compete at the highest level, and they also want to get paid & go pro. Their competitive nature inherently directs them away from turning to others for help in obtaining their rights as employees of the NCAA. That is the barrier these young men & women must overcome to help themselves. By uniting and joining with others, you become stronger and help yourself in turn.

Final thoughts: Football & men’s basketball are the only profitable NCAA sports. The House Settlement, (named after ASU swimmer Grant House) which allows NIL revenue-sharing with student-athletes (along with back pay for former athletes dating back to 2016), has received preliminary approval from a federal judge. As with every other capitalist institution & setup, there are vast inequalities in this NCAA-NIL system. Of the $20.5M annually currently allowed (set to increase in the future), 90% of it will go towards football ($~15M) & men’s hoops (~$3M). The vast majority of NCAA student athletes don’t have NIL deals, and have been completely unrepresented in the process.

What this will create is a two-tiered layer of athletics across the NCAA and on every campus. The vast majority will be regular student athletes, with an elite layer of NIL-athletes for whom this professionalized system was created. Yes, stars are important to winning and they grab the TV ratings, but in football & hoops you need a TEAM to win. When all the programs become stratified in the manner I’ve described, you don’t have teams anymore– just a bunch of guys with the same-colored jersey. Thus, the competition becomes less compelling on every level.

NIL money for student athletes has the potential to revolutionize athletics for the better, but as anyone can see, it is instead being used by the NCAA & its power conferences to increase their monopoly power over college sports, while enriching only an elite class of athletes. This mirrors how real-world capitalism deals with any social inequality issue– it promotes a thin layer of union bureaucrats, blacks, women, gays, etc, to create the illusion of fairness & equality for all. The logic of identity politics is: Because OJ Simpson became rich & famous, all blacks should be happy– and so on.

Unless student athletes unite and appoint their own legal & media representatives in this fight, then most of them will be excluded from any benefits or compensation. Deion Sanders, head football coach at the University of Colorado has the clout to get his players (including his own son) top NIL deals. LeBron James can get his son a lucrative NIL deal at USC for a year, until he goes pro. These are the people being enriched by NIL money, and it’s an advantage most student athletes don’t have.

Also note that these NIL expenditures didn’t get the Trojans into the NCAA Tournament, or the Buffaloes into the CFP. It turns out you need a group players who are willing to sacrifice for the greater good (along with top talent) to win. NIL deals distort that paradigm. How can a coach create a consistent winning culture & team camaraderie when top players transfer every year? At this point, sports are all about entertainment, with winning & excellence being secondary– especially in the NCAA.

The professionalization of college & high school sports is a modern reality. The idea of sports is that it is fair to all and merit-based, meaning those who are the most-talented & work the hardest will excel above the rest. The reality is that if you don’t have money-backed competitive advantages working for you, you will get crushed by those who do.

Sports academies offer specialized professional training and top competition for aspiring young talent, but they are expensive and out-of-reach for most working class families. College sports is becoming more bourgeois at its roots, because you need these such advantages to compete for NIL deals at top NCAA universities.

On football:

When the NCAA kingpins who rule the Big 10 (now 18 schools) decided it would be a good idea to bring UCLA, USC, etc, into their conference because it benefits Michigan & Ohio State football, that doesn’t work out so well for the other sports whose west-coast athletes now have to fly to Rutgers & Maryland for conference competition. This is one example of the nefarious & destructive influence of football in college athletics.

In many ways football needs to be it’s own entity– apart from universities & education– because it is so powerful it can swallow up any school. It can absorb any evil such as organized crime & gambling in the NFL. The Universities of Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Texas, USC, Alabama, etc, are beholden to football. The power it has over alumni is incalculable.

Football often defines that institution, and in this era of branding & NIL rights, that is more powerful than ever. Football is the PR department for the University of Miami Hurricanes and has been since Howard Schnellenberger. The same goes for FSU under Bobby Bowden, and the Florida Gators under Steve Spurrier & Urban Meyer. UCF in Orlando has become a top-25 football program out of nowhere due to massive financial inputs from the university, alumni & boosters.

The problem of the NCAA & NIL rights can’t be divorced from football. It is an addicting game, but it has a tremendous cost which is largely overlooked. Football ruins the lives of people who don’t even play, but instead bet compulsively on it. Lots of them are former high school/college players who never made it any further, yet somehow believe they have some special insight into the game. They don’t. It’s a physical, punishing game that grinds its participants into retirement. CTE, Parkinson’s, etc, are just a few of the long-term brain afflictions that await football greats when they retire.

These realities need to be widely discussed and accounted for when collective bargaining issues such at NCAA NIL rights are at stake. It’s the athletes who are competing in field hockey, soccer, wrestling, etc, that are being excluded from these discussions. It’s the university athletic directors, presidents & power conference commissioners (based on football), that are running the NCAA in their own interests. The NCAA student athletes need to come together under the banner of collective bargaining to have any voice in their future.

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Blowback ISIS terrorism & US imperialism

A U.S. Army veteran from Texas, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, who was employed by Deloitte is the suspect in the New Year’s Day attack in New Orleans that killed at least 15 people and injured 30 more. Shamsud-Din Jabbar had an ISIS flag flying on the back of the truck he used to ram through crowded Bourbon Street as people were celebrating the New Year around 3:15 AM local time. Jabbar was subsequently killed in a shootout with police.

The driver of a Tesla Cybertruck that exploded outside Donald Trump’s Las Vegas hotel hours later on New Year’s Day has been identified as Matthew Livelsberger, according to media reports. Both suspects are believed to have rented their vehicles from the carsharing company Turo, which brings up obvious questions as to these acts being connected. According to media reports, Matthew Livelsberger & Shamsud-Din Jabbar allegedly served at the same military base.

Significantly– the FBI, the police, and especially president Joe Biden, have nothing to say to the American people on this– all while discouraging the public from coming to their own conclusions. The corporate news media is focusing on the lack of dump trucks as barricades in New Orleans, which possibly could have prevented a vehicle from ramming through the crowd. Meanwhile, virtually zero questions are being critically pursued into the origins of this ISIS terrorism.

In other words, terrorism that is likely the byproduct of US imperialism, is to be used as a future pretext for martial law against the American population. The FBI’s job is to be a black hole, by sucking in all facts & information regarding the events, while revealing nothing (or as little as possible) to the public. The FBI has been expert at this since the JFK assassination.

ISIS relies on US intelligence to covertly supply them with its weaponry, including armor, guns, surface-to-air missiles, and even some aircraft. For example, US-made TOW anti-tank missiles have been supplied by the United States and Saudi Arabia to the Free Syrian Army (ISIS) which finally toppled Syrian president Bashar al-Assad last month.

The well known connections of US intelligence to ISIS/Al Qaeda goes back to the Afghan mujahideen (always referred to as ‘rebels’ in the bourgeois media), who in 1979, who were organized, funded & armed to fight against the Soviet Union’s military invasion of that country. Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former National Security Advisor of the US under Jimmy Carter, wanted to give the USSR their own Vietnam War, bogging the Russians down in an unwinnable conflict in order to bleed the decaying Soviet regime white. This was US Cold War policy, and it’s the current objective in Ukraine.

After the USSR was forced to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan in 1989, this mujahideen was reorganized into Al-Qaeda under the local leadership of Osama bin Laden, a high-level US intelligence asset. Bin Laden was an asset to US intelligence up until the 9/11 attacks, which still haven’t been seriously explained to the American people.

The ensuing US “war on terror” made Osama bin-Laden a wanted man globally, but he still remained under the protective umbrella of US intelligence, hiding in Pakistan (a strong regional ally of the US) for years until his assassination by a US special forces death squad in 2011.

At this point politically, US president Barack Obama had made the foreign policy shift from “war on terror” to his “pivot to China”. Syria was seen as “low hanging fruit” to be plundered by US imperialism with the aid of Islamic terrorist militias, and this was when Al Qaeda became known as ISIS. Their militias, with overt & covert US support, seized key Syrian oil fields and destroyed the Syrian economy, while terrorizing the general population, all in the name of regime change under the banner of “humanitarian intervention”. These ISIS/Al Qaeda/HTS terrorists are often paid in crypto-currency by US intelligence agencies, which is cheap & untraceable.

A review of this history & these facts provides the necessary context for understanding the terrorist actions in New Orleans & Las Vegas on New Year’s Day 2025. Any “investigation” that avoids this is an official whitewash of ‘blowback’ terrorism. The US government spends over a trillion dollars a year on its military, and yet ISIS/Al Qaeda is stronger than ever, and that is no coincidence.

The vast majority of these domestic terrorist acts are committed by people with US military training, which is no coincidence either. When politicians (& Elon Musk) claim, “all options are on the table” for budget cutting, they never mention the military as a possibility, which also is no coincidence. Terrorism & police state spending dovetail with the interests of the ruling class, which wants the population to be subdued into accepting US state propaganda as fact (at gunpoint if necessary) in order to maintain the existing levels of social inequality.

Wrap-up: If you’re a regular reader here then you’re familiar with my discussions the Black Hand and its murky nature. US intelligence & Wall Street finance are the murky forces behind terrorism. They control the mass media who are willing sheep. The NBC Evening News on January 1, 2025 was another example of this. Last night’s broadcast was an extended special edition devoted to propagandizing these terror attacks, as Jimmy Carter’s death (endlessly reported up until then) was dropped.

After 30 minutes of Lester Holt insisting the FBI wasn’t in charge of these investigations, several NBC on-site reporters revealed the opposite, finally forcing Lester Holt to mumble an admission that the FBI was indeed in charge. Anyone with an ounce of political brains already knew this, and that’s when discerning viewers turn off the TV and get onto the internet & social media.

Major news outlets from NBC & Fox to the New York Times & the Wall Street Journal normally have their stories spoonfed to them through political & corporate information gatekeepers. White House & Congressional “contacts, sources”, and so forth… The White House typically tells the press what today’s story is and that’s how the news is made. Any investigative reporting outside those parameters is frowned upon & usually censored.

But when an unexpected event happens, such as these apparently-related New Year’s terror attacks, the mass media is always behind on the story because they are so used to having the entire narrative handed to them. When they have to investigate and provide analysis of a live event, right now, even though they have vast resources to pull from, they are inevitably far behind any serious local reporting & social media updates.

The corporate ideology of capitalism as an unquestionable force of good, blinds any serious analysis from its institutions. Social media is how most people find out what’s going on and share it today. It’s also how these-type events are seriously investigated, as “official” agencies will be hushed & coerced into silence by the Black Hand which feeds them. Just like everything else from JFK to 9/11, it’s murky murky.

The blood-soaked Saudi monarchy, the second-most important ally of US imperialism in the Middle East, provides the rank-and-file raw material for Al Qaeda, ISIS, or whatever you want to call it. These reactionary Islamic fanatics know they must bow to Israel, US imperialism’s most important ally in the Middle East. All these governments & intelligence agencies coordinate these conflicts in their interests, which don’t always coincide to say the least.

And that’s the danger of state-sponsored terrorism which isn’t acknowledged to the public due to “national security”, it can strike anywhere at any time, and ultimately it can lead to an extinction event for humanity. The mass media doesn’t care, so it’s up to the people on social media who do care to inform & lead themselves.

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