For a Trotskyist theorist, the task is to be on the cutting edge of historical events with the most precise analysis & revolutionary insights. History is being written every day, so Marxists use historical materialism in their analysis of events. Dialectics is the science of change & revolution. Only the wisest become historical materialist Marxists. The dialecticians in this group are the theorists.
For instance, Patrick Martin of the WSWS analyzed the 2018 US elections and noticed a remarkable increase in former military & intelligence candidates for Congress as Democrats. This was when all the media hype was about AOC & her squad on the fake left supposedly getting ready to take over the Democratic Party and be its future. Patrick Martin dismissed that fake left nonsense and theorized this right-wing militarist caucus was to be of decisive importance for them and thus branded them as CIA Democrats. Trotskyists have since used that correct political definition of this right-wing shift in the Democratic Party. CIA Democrats are all pro-war & pro-police, and so are AOC & Bernie Sanders, which is why Trotskyists correctly refer to them as the pseudo-left.
The value of the Marxist definition of the CIA Democrats is that it precisely explains everything. Everything in the bourgeois media is meant to confuse the masses and it is precisely targeted to your computer or device. It’s streaming live audio & video 24/7 365 to the NSA and the rest of the intelligence/military/police apparatus. We’ve known this ever since 2013, when Edward Snowden gave it to Wikileaks. Today, Julian Assange is still in a London maximum security prison, mostly in solitary confinement. He was abducted by the UK police at the behest of US intelligence & the White House in April 2019 because he told the world the truth.
Since then, things have gotten worse everywhere. A novel coronavirus pandemic which started as a wildlife-human crossover in a Wuhan wet market in late 2019, has now become a forever pandemic. Best estimates are over 20 million dead globally, over a million in the US, and these are acknowledged in the scientific literature to be vast undercounts. Excessive deaths are 50-100% higher than these mortality figures which have been skewed down to minimize the human impact of ‘let it rip’ pseudo-science in politics.
For those who don’t die, Long COVID remains, which means COVID-19 is going to be with us until we unite as a planet to stamp out this highly contagious & infectious virus. It’s possible to do this in 2-3 months with a globally-coordinated effort led by science. The capitalist markets will never allow this, so they must be overthrown. If this coronavirus is allowed to spread unchecked & mutate globally, in 30 years no one will be healthy enough to work anymore. The futures for COVID under capitalism are scary as they indicate that a virus is smarter than humans.
Humanity has to do better in applying science & rationality to every significant problem we face– political, economic & social. There’s too much stupidity & bad behavior that goes entirely unpunished because of privilege & inequality. This only emboldens the most reactionary layers to act even worse. History teaches us this is how world wars begin.
Both fascist Republicans & CIA Democrats want to start WW3. Joe Biden & his rabid anti-communists have their war with Russia in the Ukraine already. The MAGA fascists would prefer WW3 to start in China. Trotskyists reject this madness of MAD, and oppose an international perspective of worker revolution to take power out of the hands of the capitalists and organize a new & equal society on a socialist basis. This means abolishing the police, military & intelligence apparatus. The banks, corporate media & industries need to fall under worker control to have any progressive possibility. As it is under capitalist ownership & management these essential institutions are parasites.
Obviously, none of these realities can be uttered in the corporate media from NPR & CNN to FOX & Breitbart. All these tendencies share common traits: political ignorance, laziness & dishonesty. They all have talking points they stick to firmly, and have no flexibility or chops outside of their pampered bubbles. They embrace the fake media because it validates them.
Crypto is the libertarian expression of this intellectual & ideological poverty. None of the crypto geeks can explain its use value except in terms of laundering money & tax evasion. The FTX collapse in November 2022 led directly to the global banking crisis that has set upon us since Silvergate Bank collapsed & vanished earlier this month. Silvergate was all-in on crypto, and so was Signature Bank.
Silicon Valley Bank was over-leveraged in the bond market, which has collapsed since the Fed started raising interest rates for the first in 15 years. Both markets, crypto & US treasuries, relied on free money from the Fed. As soon as it gets cut off, these banks, venture capitalists, hedge funds, etc, are finished because they are so indebted as bond holders and/or they hold useless crypto– see Elon Musk.
It’s very important to take all this into account when analyzing & theorizing about Election 2024 being the civil war election. First thing to understand is that it’s already started. What have coming in 2024 is a reversed-role re-run of 2020, which sucked– as did 2016. Two right-wing candidates in reversed roles, with the CIA Democrats as the incumbent in the form of a senile & frothing anti-communist and Wall Street pillar, while the Nazis have Trump.
Trump consumed the Republican Party in 2015-16, and then spat it out on January 6, 2021. There is nothing remaining on the right that can compete with Trump, he is their fuhrer. Being from Florida, I can tell you Ron DeSantis doesn’t have a chance against Trump, and that’s why there is a fake campaign to take the Donald out of the running. That’s what the Stormy Daniels sex & hush money scandal is about. It will fail (it’s designed to fail), just as the MeToo campaign shipwrecked itself during the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hearings in Sept/Oct 2018.
Donald Trump led the January 6, 2021 insurrection on the Capitol building where US Congress was going through the formality of certifying the 2020 election, which was their Constitutional duty. Hoards of well-coordinated & armed fascists overwhelmed Capitol police as Donald Trump & his coup plotters refused to send them help. Trump was helping the fascist barbarians. When this plan failed, Trump immediately pivoted to pressuring Republicans to vote “No” on impeachment in the hearings that immediately followed in January 2021. Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell caved to Trump, cowardly fearing the backlash from his fascist supported if he didn’t.
Since then, no Republican or fake left Democrat has seriously challenged Donald Trump by insisting he be arrested & prosecuted for plotting a fascist coup to overthrow the US Constitution and establish himself as dictator. That’s against the law, and a most-serious felony offense. But the Democrats think a stale sex scandal makes a better case, and that’s why Trump is free to run for US President again in 2024, where he will surely defeat Joe Biden. The liberal Democrats & college kids aren’t going to come out for Biden in 2024, and that’s enough to swing it to Trump in the key states he needs to win the Electoral College.
What happens in the weeks after Tuesday, November 5, 2024 can be generally theorized as follows. No matter which side wins, the other side will not accept the result as legitimate. This all started in Florida in 2000, which ended in the Supreme Court voting 5-4 for Bush. Hanging chads, butterfly ballots, uncounted ballots, etc, were hyped to death, but never rationally explained. The Republicans stole that election, and most people didn’t know it, and still don’t. The Democrats made sure of that. The shock & awe of 9/11 came shortly after, and the US political landscape has shifted far-right ever since.
Election 2016 was pathetic, as Democrat front-runner Hillary Clinton was handed a rigged nomination, then lost to Donald Trump in November. She graciously accepted defeat early and hasn’t been heard from since, but her influence is still there. Hillary Clinton is the Black Hand behind the MeToo campaign, featuring Pussy Riot as agents of US intelligence.
I was the first to say fascism won election 2016, the night it happened, and also the first to identify the ‘MeToo campaign’ as a right-wing attack from the CIA Democrats. Its punk protégées were Pussy Riot. These fake rock phonies & CIA stooges never performed live or made any real music, but they do do NFT drops to fund-raise crypto to send to neo-Nazis in Kiev in the name of freeing Russia.
When Putin outed Pussy Riot as foreign agents a few years back on New Years Eve, this Trotskyist theorist was vindicated. The music business’ tie-in to state propaganda is always murky, but this is murky murky. Pussy Riot was a totally fake band (art collective, protest activists, etc) recruited & created by the CIA and hyped as real. They had an AllMusic biography & discography for years presenting them as a legitimate punk rock band. All fake. Since being outed as agents, AllMusic changed (updated?) all the Pussy Riot pages on their site.
Election 2020 was the worst US election ever. No real choice anywhere on the ballot. Just CIA Democrats & Nazis. Anyone with any kind of political sense knows that 2024 is portending to be an even bigger shit-show. It’s lesser-of-two-evilism, a political myopia, that compels so many despairing & politically disoriented people into voting for their favored party of capitalist exploitation without understanding these charlatans are really their class enemies. There’s simply too many clueless old folks who vote either Democrat or Republican and will do so every two years until they die. They can’t be appealed to under the strait-jacket of their two-party mentality because that’s all they know. They mostly need to be retired or put in hospice and get out of serious politics.
Serious politics means revolution. It’s going to be the working masses & the disenfranchised youth that intervene with a Trotskyist program to lead humanity out of this quagmire I’ve just outlined. If we don’t get serious NOW, then Nazis will surely take political power again, and they will never relinquish it until they’ve unleashed all their ugliness, hatred & venom upon humanity & our planet.
Liberals are too lazy & intellectually bankrupt to come up with any serious answers to any serious question, so avoid the DSA, Greens & Bernie in 2024. The Nazis are always ready to fight, in fact that’s what they prefer to do. MAGA fascists want Trump because he’s a perceived leader who enables their racist/homophobic pathological rage.
This is only 2-3% of the total US population, and surely no more than 5%, but they are very dangerous because they are being incubated & emboldened. CIA Democrats & Republican Nazis have created this sick society because it provides them the shock troops needed to attack the working class. They will be unleashed in 2024, and the working class better organize and be ready for them, otherwise… well, we have history to teach us valuable lessons here.
In November 1923, Adolph Hitler led his Beer Hall Putsch, which failed badly and he went to prison where he wrote his racist diatribe Mein Kampf. In January 1933, Hitler was handed the chancellorship of Germany as the Wiemar Republic was in its death throes, under an insurmountable weight of WW1 debt & global economic depression. The choice to the rulers of Germany were either revolution or fascism, and they chose Hitler. Joe Biden & the CIA Democrats will surely do the same thing with Trump in 2024 when push comes to shove.
So that’s what to expect politically in 2024 if there is no organized intervention from the working class. By this I mean mass strikes, economic shutdowns, and increased worker militancy with political class consciousness. This is what is happening across Europe & the Middle East right now in France, Germany, Israel, etc, and it’s coming to the US soon. The decisive question will be Trotskyist leadership within the working class ranks.
The Fed’s policy of raising interest rates is a ruling class strategy to induce a global recession and quell labor cost demands. In other words, the puppet masters want to unemploy tens & even hundreds of millions of workers to create a larger available labor pool, which reduces labor costs. The problem is, the banks & volatile tech industries such as crypto are hyper-sensitive to interest rate increases, necessitating taxpayer bailouts for them into eternity. This is being hidden from the public.
The fake economy is collapsing under mountains of unpayable debt, but it wants to keep plunging. There’s a pathological element of addictive gambling in play among the ruling elites. This aggression can not be allowed to stand, and must be met with a politically armed & united international working class with a socialist program.