Electoral College Soup 2024

Election 2024 crescendos on Tuesday, and it’s the Electoral College the decides things in the US presidential race. This archaic & anti-democratic set-up is poorly understood by the American people, which is the intent of the ruling political class. The first premise that voters need to understand is that unless you are in a “battleground state” your vote largely doesn’t matter. Most states are baked-in before any of the campaigning starts, especially in 2024 with the strict exclusion of 3rd party candidates.

If we didn’t have the antiquated Electoral College, then we wouldn’t have had 1/6. No one in bourgeois politics wants you to understand that.

The latest Real Clear Politics polling has the Electoral College as stands below, with 270 electoral votes needed to win. Note that anything more than 1.0 points in the polling is too much to overcome at this point, so battleground states like GA, NC, NV & AZ all go to Trump in 2024.

Donald Trump: 268

Kamala Harris: 225

Toss-ups: WI (10) Harris +0.3; MI (15) Harris +0.5; PA (19) Trump +0.3

Maine (4) & Nebraska (5) can split their electoral college votes, and have done so recently (2008 NE, 2016 NE & ME, 2020 ME). I’ve accounted for that in Maine, with 3 electoral votes for Harris, and 1 for Trump baked-in. Nebraska is trickier, with 4 votes going to Trump for sure, but one district is considered a toss-up and that may come into play on election night.

Harris has to win WI, MI & PA just to get to 269 and make NE relevant, or a congressional tie-breaker even possible. If she loses any of the three, Trump wins outright.

If neither candidate gets a majority of the 538 electoral votes (both at 269), the election for President is decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. A majority of states (26) is needed to win. and the Senate would elect the Vice-President with each Senator having a vote. A majority of Senators (51) is needed to win. This scenario was brought up in Season 4/5 of House of Cards (2013-18), when Frank & Claire Underwood steal the election from Republican challenger Will Conway.

In 2024, neither major party will accept the “official” results, as both sides can honestly claim the other cheated & don’t deserve the presidency. If Kamala Harris can’t pull out MI, WI & PA, it’s over on election night. But if she does, this election has the very real possibility of dragging out for weeks, with endless anti-democratic maneuvering behind closed doors to decide the presidency, and Donald Trump as the clear favorite in that murky campaign.The US Supreme Court ruling Bush v Gore in 2000 taught us that.

The most democratic way to elect a president would be for every political party to be given a media voice & ballot status, so the issues could be seriously discussed before the electorate decides by popular vote who their leader should be. But in America we don’t have that freedom. There were no choices allowed in either Dem/Rep primary, and no leftist or anti-war voices were allowed to speak in the mass media, in fact they were attacked and slandered as “antisemites” through a coordinated smear campaign organized by the CIA Democrats with full Republican (Trump) support.

What we have with Election 2024 is American capitalism rotting on its feet, and doing everything in its power to prevent a popular uprising of the working masses & disenfranchised youth. It is this massive social force that must mobilize itself in solidarity to protect itself against the forces of imperialism & fascism that have dominated American politics & Election 2024.

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US Supreme Court v 14th Amendment

The 14th Amendment established birthright citizenship & freed black slaves. It also contains this paragraph below, which specifically applied at the time to President Andrew Johnson who sought to conspire with Southern Democrats after Abraham Lincoln was assassinated. President Johnson attempted to use his veto power to block congressional efforts to carry out the Reconstruction of the South.

“No Person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two thirds of each House, remove such disability.”

As the WSWS has written, ‘This constitutional language leaves little room for interpretation. Trump was “an officer of the United States”— indeed, the chief officer— who took “an oath… to support the Constitution,” but who then “engaged in insurrection or rebellion.” The clause also bars from public office those who have given “aid and comfort” to an insurrection. Donald Trump is therefore barred from holding “any office” by the Fourteenth Amendment, just as Confederate president Jefferson Davis was banned from running for US office after the Civil War.’

FILE PHOTO: U.S. Supreme Court justices Amy Coney Barrett, Neil M. Gorsuch, Brett M. Kavanaugh, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Sonia Sotomayor, Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John G. Roberts, Jr., Samuel A. Alito, Jr. and Elena Kagan pose for their group portrait at the Supreme Court in Washington, U.S., October 7, 2022. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo

Last week the US Supreme Court heard arguments from both sides over a Colorado ruling that Donald Trump should be disqualified from the ballot on the grounds of him violating the 14th Amendment on 1/6/21. The US Supreme Court is packed with far right zealots & Trump appointees, so their decision has already been made– just like ‘Bush v Gore’ in 2000. If the US Supreme Court needed to rule that ‘2+2=5’ then it would find some technicality or distort whatever reality is necessary to confirm that majority opinion. There are no checks & balances on government power, just class interests concealed under the illusion of democracy.

Thousands of MAGA Trumpists swarmed over the Capitol building on 1/6/21 with the purpose of stopping the certification of the 2020 election for Joe Biden. Trumpists attacked Capitol & DC police and were chanting “Hang Mike Pence!” Scores of cops were injured and five people died as a result. Donald Trump told his mob to “Fight like hell or you won’t have a country anymore.” That’s as clear-cut a violation of the US Constitution as it gets, and everyone saw it on live TV. Trumpists act like they are so persecuted, but Joe Biden & his Democrats protect Trump more than anyone.

The State of Colorado’s oral arguments are legally sound, but have been met with hostility & indifference from the justices. Clarence Thomas & Samuel Alito directed a barrage of politically-loaded questions at the attorneys for the State of Colorado, as compared to Trump’s lawyer who rambled technically & incoherently for a few minutes & then quickly signed off with no questions from any of the justices concerning their paper-thin defense [!]. Basically, Trumpists are threatening another insurrection if the Supreme Court upholds Colorado’s decision.

The US Supreme Court is being asked to make a decision it doesn’t want to make– a sure sign it has outlived its usefulness. The State of Colorado (and its voters) are seeking clarity, while the Supreme Court tries to dodge & duck the issue. Justice Clarence Thomas & his wife Ginny were part of the 1/6 insurrection, yet he has not recused himself due to conflict of interest. These are the ethics of the SC, where justices consider themselves (& Trump) to be above the law in a constitutional system of ‘checks & balances’ that is nothing more than out-of-control corruption.

There are six Republican appointed justices and three Democrat appointees on the SC. None of the Democrat appointees are challenging the Trump narrative. No discussion of Trump’s failed coup attempt and what it means. All the Supreme Court wants to do is deflect, split hairs, and keep Trump on the ballot. That’s pre-decided here. The critical question the SC is avoiding is, “Did Trump attempt an insurrection to overthrow the US Constitution on 1/6/21?”

If the Supreme Court refuses to examine the issue of whether Donald Trump incited an insurrection on 1/6/21, then what purpose do they serve except to protect privilege? Two states (Colorado & Maine) have defined Trump’s actions as insurrection. The Supreme Court’s job is to address that issue directly and with impartiality. They are doing neither.

Trump lawyers argue it’s up to Congress to rule on this matter. It’s been three years since the House voted to impeach Trump for insurrection and the Senate acquitted him behind Republican majority leader Mitch McConnell who himself was a target of the Trump mob on 1/6. Nothing since from Congress, or Joe Biden, so it now falls to the Supreme Court. A clear & Constitutionally-sound ruling by the US Supreme Court is required to maintain any illusion of democracy in American politics, yet it will not be allowed to happen. What is being illustrated now is the complete rot & corruption of capitalist politics.

To be fair & balanced, the 25th Amendment, proposed by Congress and ratified by the states in the aftermath of the assassination of JFK provides the procedures for replacing the president or vice president in the event of death, removal, resignation, or incapacitation. Clearly Joe Biden is mentally incapacitated. Disqualification of Donald Trump under the 14th Amendment is entirely justified, just as is removing Joe Biden from the office of President due to his diminished mental capacity. It is entirely reasonable that the people of the Untied States should expect any Presidential candidate to take a mental exam to prove competency, and it is likewise reasonable to bar from public office those who willfully violate the Constitution.

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