In August 1994, MLB players walked out after being provoked by their owners threatening to unilaterally impose a salary cap system. Owner representative & MLB commissioner Bud Selig cancelled the World Series a month later, for reasons discussed in greater detail in an earlier piece. [1]
No one knows who would have won the 1994 World Series, but the Montreal Expos and New York Yankees seemed the most likely match-up. Each were clearly the best team in their league. This piece is an analysis of something that never happened, as MLB has never acknowledged a “Best Team of 1994,” in lieu of its traditional ‘World Series champions.’
It seems necessary to do so, in the name of fairness, especially to a group of fans who saw their team robbed of the best chance they ever had to win a World Series. The great irony of all this was the 1994 MLB strike was provoked by the owners & their commissioner– Bud Selig, in the name “small-market competitiveness.”
The scope of this piece is the understanding of numbers, to determine the superior team. Recognizing the correct numbers (and their integrated weighted values), is where math and baseball knowledge blend. Everything a fan needs to know to solve the 1994-season is provided in the numbers below, which were gleaned from baseball-reference.com.
Final note to ATL fans: the Braves divisional winning streak was broken in this season, as they finished second in the NL East to the Expos. Yes, the season was shortened; and yes there were no playoffs, but the record still stands as the Braves losing the division in 1994. The Braves two consecutive division-winning streaks from this era run: 1991-1993, and 1995-2005.
1994 Montreal Expos
74-40, Finished 1st in NL East
Manager: Felipe Alou
GM: Kevin Malone (Promoted 1/27/1994), Farm Dir: Kent Qualls, Scouting Dir: Ed Creech
Scored 585 runs, Allowed 454 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 70-44
Pos Name Age G PA AVG/OBP/SLG
C Darrin Fletcher 27 94 325 .260/.314/.435
1B Cliff Floyd 21 100 366 .281/.332/.398
2B Mike Lansing 26 106 435 .266/.328/.368
SS Wil Cordero 22 110 467 .294/.363/.489
3B Sean Berry 28 103 359 .278/.347/.453
LF Moises Alou 27 107 471 .339/.397/.592
CF Marquis Grissom 27 110 521 .288/.344/.427
RF Larry Walker 27 103 452 .322/.394/.587
Bench
C Lenny Webster 29 57 166 .273/.370/.448
LF Lou Frazier 29 76 160 .271/.358/.307
2B Juan Bell 26 38 114 .278/.372/.381
LF Rondell White 22 40 109 .278/.358/.464
Starters Age W/L ERA G GS IP WHIP
Ken Hill 28 16 5 3.32 23 23 154.2 1.222
Pedro Martinez 22 11 5 3.42 24 23 144.2 1.106
Jeff Fassero 31 8 6 2.99 21 21 138.2 1.147
Butch Henry 25 8 3 2.43 24 15 107.1 1.090
Kirk Rueter 23 7 3 5.17 20 20 92.1 1.397
Bullpen Age W/L ERA G GF IP WHIP
John Wetteland 27 4 6 2.83 52 43 63.2 1.052
Mel Rojas 27 3 2 3.32 58 27 84.0 1.095
Gil Heredia 28 6 3 3.46 39 8 75.1 1.301
Jeff Shaw 27 5 2 3.88 46 15 67.1 1.218
Tim Scott 27 5 2 2.70 40 8 53.1 1.294
Expos team fielding % of .979, ranked 11th of 14 NL teams
Stade Olympique · Attendance: 1,276,250 (11th in NL)
Total Expos payroll: $26,388,500 (27th in MLB)
1994 New York Yankees
70-43, Finished 1st in AL East
Manager: Buck Showalter
GM: Gene Michael, Farm Dir: Mitch Lukevics, Scouting Dir: Bill Livesey
Scored 670 runs, Allowed 534 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 68-45
Pos Name Age G PA AVG/OBP/SLG
C Mike Stanley 31 82 333 .300/.384/.545
1B Don Mattingly 33 97 436 .304/.397/.411
2B Pat Kelly 26 93 329 .280/.330/.399
SS Mike Gallego 33 89 357 .239/.327/.359
3B Wade Boggs 36 97 434 .342/.433/.489
LF Luis Polonia 30 95 394 .311/.383/.414
CF Bernie Williams 25 108 475 .289/.384/.453
RF Paul O’Neill 31 103 443 .359/.460/.603
DH Danny Tartabull 31 104 470 .256/.360/.464
Bench
IF Randy Velarde 31 77 310 .279/.338/.439
UT Jim Leyritz 30 75 293 .265/.365/.518
LF Gerald Williams 27 57 91 .291/.319/.523
Starters Age W/L ERA G GS IP WHIP
Jimmy Key 33 17 4 3.27 25 25 168.0 1.363
Jim Abbott 26 9 8 4.55 24 24 160.1 1.441
Melido Perez 28 9 4 4.10 22 22 151.1 1.269
Terry Mulholland 31 6 7 6.49 24 19 120.2 1.550
Scott Kamieniecki 30 8 6 3.76 22 16 117.1 1.483
Bullpen Age W/L ERA G GF IP WHIP
Steve Howe 36 3 0 1.80 40 25 40.0 0.875
Bob Wickman 25 5 4 3.09 53 19 70.0 1.157
Xavier Hernandez 28 4 4 5.85 31 14 40.0 1.725
Donn Pall 32 1 2 3.60 26 7 35.0 1.486
Paul Gibson 34 1 1 4.97 30 15 29.0 1.483
NYY had a fielding % of .982, good for 4th of 14 AL teams
Yankee Stadium · Attendance: 1,675,556 (7th in AL)
Total Yankees payroll: $66,208,334 (1st in MLB)
Wrap-up: Interpreting the correct numbers correctly, we see the Montreal Expos were clearly the best team in MLB in 1994, and likely would have won the World Series had there been a full season. If these teams played our hypothetical World Series ten times, the Expos would win seven. Montreal starting pitching was dominant, and so was their bullpen. The ’94 Expos also got on-base (OBP) & mashed (SLG). They were a bit below-average defensively, which was their only weakness.
The Yankees had a great lineup, a notch better than the outstanding Expos. However, Yankees pitching was several notches worse. Compare ERA & WHIP for both staffs. Thin all-around would be the best description for NYY, as they were overly-reliant on veteran lefty Jimmy Key to be an ace. Self-destructive Steve Howe was their closer. After that it was pedestrian arms at best, in the rotation & pen. The Yankees were good, but not great defensively, so that advantage over the Expos would have been minimal.
Both teams had good managers, as indicated by the fact that both overplayed their Pythagorean projections. Both had bench depth. Compare player ages, and notice how much younger the Expos were, as compared to the veteran Yankees. In 1994, the Expos did it purely with scouting & player development; meanwhile the Yankees (again) had the largest payroll in MLB, as only Bernie Williams was homegrown.
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