AJ Preller’s Padres: Youth & Upside

Steal City: Jankowski swipes home for 2nd time 8-10-16
The screenshot thumbnail shows what a great athlete CF Travis Jankowski is, as he touches home plate with his right hand, while running nearly full-speed & avoiding the catcher. He would have likely been out, if not mishandled, but it’s his speed which applied the pressure that made PIT crack. That needs to be the limit of his daring on stealing home, as a playoff team would have nailed him. Still: 25 SB, 5 CS is excellent all-around. He’s had a few replay calls turned against him, which proves how fast he is to the umpires on the field.  Padres fans also love his defense and .378 OBP.

CF Travis Jankowski: Padres AA

Jankowski has replaced Jon Jay, beautifully. The Federalist may still be traded, if he can recover from his broken wrist and clear waivers by 8/31.  Padres really can’t QO him, and he doesn’t fit their roster anymore.  Otherwise he’ll remain as a 4th outfielder. We’ll see…

Padres unconditionally release Olivera 8-10-16
Green said Wednesday that he had discussions within the organization to make sure that the Padres’ Minor League affiliates are cognizant of the replay process at the Major League level — even though it doesn’t apply in the Minors.

“We have to really do a better job, even if it costs us at the Minor League level, of holding the bag longer and holding our tags longer, and driving tags through guys,” Green said. “Those are things that you’ve just got to clean up as an organization.”

That’s leadership (Green & Preller) getting ahead of the curve. Great news for an organization that has been mostly behind. It’s why so many Padres fans are excited, despite their current 4th-place record. This team sold off all its contracts at the deadline, and got better!  Padres are younger (upside & cheaper), with better OBP & defense.  More power comes with age and experience.  Solid planning & execution, from Padres ownership & management; through to the coaches, scouts and the rest of the organization.

Hector-Olivera-3B

By officially releasing 3B/OF Hector Olivera, Preller proves this deal was a pure salary dump of RF Matt Kemp to ATL.  Padres eat $28.5M on Olivera. The Braves get shifted $10.5M of the LA Dodgers money (from SD) on Kemp’s deal, and owe the remainder of this year, plus 3 more years at $21.75M/year.

Preller & Kemp

Padres got a season and two-thirds out of Matt Kemp and paid him ~ $15M ($3.25M in 2015 + ~$12M in 2016), plus the $28.5M on Olivera for a total of ~$44M.  That’s an over-pay, (for sure), but not a disaster– due to it’s short length.  The longer an albatross hangs, the more it costs.  Kemp was likely foisted upon Preller, by an over-eager new Padres ownership group in 2014:

Peter Seidler, left, Kevin O'Malley, Tom Seidler, and Brian O'Malley of the San Diego Padres new ownership group

Padres fans thank RF Matt Kemp for his professionalism, and for hitting for the only cycle in franchise history in 2015.  Now, only the Marlins (existed since 1993) have not had a player hit for the cycle.

matt-kemp-padres-celebrates-cycle

Padres remain the only MLB franchise, w/o a no-hitter pitched.

A. J. Preller did a masterful job, dumping a losing player (currently .285 OBP) onto an organization that (obviously) has no idea on winning.  This opportunity came about for the Padres, because the Braves couldn’t handle their own mess.  When Hector Olivera became a PR disaster that wouldn’t go away, Preller swooped in and handled it for them, while dumping the player he HAD to trade– at minimal cost to the Padres.  ATL fans and coaches can argue Matt Kemp’s merits, but they need to realize Braves GM John Coppolella should have made the Padres eat more themselves, instead of just transferring Dodgers money ($10.5M).  Call the Padres’ savings on Kemp, A.J. Preller’s ‘handling fee’ on Olivera, doing what the Braves should have done long ago.

John Coppolella_Braves GM

The Matt Kemp dump may have been the most brilliant deadline deal A. J. Preller made.  It clearly made NYY GM Brian Cashman take a closer look at the A-Rod situation, and arguably influenced the Yankees actions.  The mighty Yankees were getting shown up by a West-coast ‘small-market’ team willing to eat ~$70M to improve themselves.  It was only $27M for the Yankees, who have now done what the Padres already did.   Notice, the Padres have done more, with much less– due to AJP’s skill & creativity.  Of course the Yankees get more hype on this, because they’re the Yankees.

Padres welcome back versatile lefty Richard 8-7-16
This must certainly be better than LHP Matt Thornton (Age 39, 17 IP, 5.82 ERA). Green & Balsley will work on Clayton Richard, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he got a crack at starting in September. Padres need to shut down RHP Luis Perdomo & LHP Christian Friedrich soon, so they’ll need all the arms they can get. Preller is doing his job, acquiring whatever pitching he can get, after trading his staff away for prospects or losing them to injury.  The Edwin Jackson pick-up (waived by the Marlins) has really helped: 3-1 in 5 starts, with a 3.62 ERA in 32.1 IP.

Edwin Jackson_Marlins

Padres may use six-man rotation temporarily

Club hopes to limit innings during 16-game stretch without an off-day   8-7-16

Smart. It’s all about managing injury-risk for pitchers. Opposite of the Marlins.

………….><><><><><><><><……………

Fangraphs 8/11/16: The Padres Are Running Like Crazy People  [1]

San Diego Padres 2015-16 Off-Season Wrap-Up

The MLB off-season is all about the general manager (GM), and what he does to improve the organization. Last off-season, Padres GM A.J. Preller was handed a checkbook by owner Ron Fowler, and he proceeded to make splashes. In hindsight, the only deal that Preller probably regrets is the Matt Kemp trade, although nothing turned out well on-the-field for the 2015 Padres.

Let’s get the Matt Kemp situation straight, and understand what it is. In San Diego, Kemp is a 5th wheel, and he never really fit– which isn’t his fault. The Padres only paid $3.25M of his salary in 2015, with the Dodgers covering the remaining $18M. It’s flipped for the last 4 years, with the Padres owing $73M ($18.25/yr), and LA paying $14M ($3.5M/yr). Preller definitely has to eat contract to deal Kemp, but that was understood when he made the deal for him with a low cost in 2015.

The real question is when will a opportunity present itself for a deal? A high-payroll AL team, desperate to make the post-season, looks at Matt Kemp much differently than the Padres do. If a team like NYY, BOS, DET or LAA (just to throw out examples) thinks he’s the missing piece, then Preller has something they want. At that point, it just becomes a matter of negotiations, with Preller dealing from strength. He’s been doing it all off-season, so there’s no reason why he can’t eventually get it done, to the Padres benefit. It would help if Matt Kemp got off to a hot start and stayed healthy.

Updated 1-17-16

All Padres fans interested in winning agree that Matt Kemp needs to move to the AL where he can DH, because all his value is now in his bat. He can spot-start or fill-in at corner OF (and maybe 1B), but he primarily needs to DH. He’s 31 this season, with a career line of .289/.345/.489, as a CF & RF. Last year it dipped to .265/.312/.443, and much of that can be attributed to being on a bad team, and being asked to field a position he really couldn’t play anymore.

Around two thirds of the teams in the AL are faking it at DH. Only BOS (David Ortiz), KCR (Kendrys Morales), MIN (Miguel Sano!), TEX (Prince Fielder), and TOR (Edwin Encarnacion), have a legitimate DH. One could also add Alex Rodriguez (NYY, age 40) to that list, but he’s a huge regression candidate & injury risk. Notice these are (mostly) competitive teams, that often play deep into October.

As of now, the fakers at DH include: Mark Trumbo (BAL), Adam LaRoche (CWS), Victor Martinez (DET), Evan Gattis (HOU), C.J. Cron (LAA), Billy Butler (OAK), and John Jaso (TBR); with SEA & CLE are still searching.

The only legitimate OF/DH bats left on the free agent market (as of this writing) are Justin Upton & Yoenes Cespedis. After that, DH options drop off to the likes of Ryan Raburn & Jimmy Parades, which is replacement level.  Rule # 1 to winning is, stay away from the replacement level.

There’s room somewhere in here to deal Matt Kemp fairly, while minimizing the damage to the Padres. Matt Kemp is a professional hitter, and a proud player who wants to earn his contract. This isn’t a “Manny being Manny” situation, which gives Preller time & room to maneuver, but this needs to get done sometime in 2016.

Wil Myers

Wil Myers was A.J. Preller’s steal of last off-season, and if he stays healthy he will rake, and be the face of the franchise for years. That’s a big IF, as health is a skill, but also depends somewhat on luck & other factors. A player increases his value if he has the ability to stay healthy. Cal Ripken, Jr. (BAL) is a clear example of durability providing & enhancing career value. A similar player from his era is Barry Larkin (CIN), who could have been the greatest SS ever, if he had had Ripken’s knack for avoiding injury. Instead Larkin spent much of his career on the DL, and that reduced him to merely a HoFer, which only shows just how good he was when healthy.

If we take a closer look at Barry Larkin’s injuries, we find a mixture of reasons for them. He played most of his career on Riverfront Stadium’s astroturf, which leads to more wear & tear vs. playing on natural grass.  That’s something a player can’t control.  Larkin blew out his elbow while participating in the Relay-Throw Contest at the 1991 All-Star game, which was mostly his fault.  MLB has eliminated that silly contest since that incident.  Barry Larkin even had a freak injury where he was struck in the knee by a bat while waiting on-deck; and there’s nothing you can do about something like that. That’s a concise overview & understanding of injury risk.

Barry Larkin

The Padres are definitely a better team as of this writing. Their 2015 opening day starting infield was: 3B Will Middlebrooks, SS Alexi Amarista, 2B Jedd Gyorko & 1B Yonder Alonso which was probably the worst in MLB.  In 2016 it’s 3B Yangervis Solarte, SS Alexei Ramirez, 2B Cory Spangenberg & 1B Wil Myers– which is a fair-to-significant upgrade at every position.  Plus the Padres will start the season with an actual CF (B.J. “he needs a nickname” Upton), who is healthy (recall he started 2015 on the DL w/ turf toe in his right foot).  In LF Jon Jay is not Justin Upton, but he’s left-handed, affordable, and a good candidate for a bounce-back season.  What remains is C Derek Norris & RF Matt Kemp (for now).

The pitching staff is the same at the top with James Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner– minus Ian Kennedy whom they don’t need.  Preller is building the back-end of the rotation & bullpen the correct way: from within the organization, via low-level trades, and by acquiring veteran arms on the cheap.  Buy low/sell high– especially with relievers.

Most Padres fans I’ve interacted with like (or at least are willing to be open-minded about) new manager Andy Green and the coaches he’s brought in.  All Padres fans are ecstatic about retaining ace pitching coach Darren Balsley.

Darren_Balsley

The key to the Padres off-season was (believe it or not) when Ian Kennedy refused their $15.9M qualifying offer. That allowed Preller the financial flexibility to trade 2B Jedd Gyorko for OF Jon Jay, while eating the $7M necessary to make the deal, and then sign Rameriz as a stopgap SS to top prospect Javier Guerra. The Craig Kimbrel trade and the (4!) Rule 5 picks were also huge, but if Kennedy had accepted that offer (as he could have), then Preller would have been handcuffed and this team would now look a lot different–in a worse way.

Trading a player at the 7/31 deadline vs. keeping them (and extending a QO) is a razor’s edge. A.J. Preller hung onto Justin Upton (& the rest of his assets) at the 2015 trade deadline, because 1) he didn’t like what he was being offered in return, and 2) he owed it to EVERYONE (players, fans, etc…) to stick it out. In September, when it was hopeless, many fans still tuned in, and appreciated every bomb J. Up hit. They were electrifying, and win or lose, that still has value. It all depends on what a GM can get, and if its a flooded buyer’s market (like July 2015), then it’s best to hang onto the player and take the two-months value & the QO-compensation pick.

Ian Kennedy

Preller gambled his entire off-season plan on Ian Kennedy refusing the QO, because he WANTED that compensation pick. It’s a tough call & good GM’s play it close-to-the-vest; and that’s why they’re paid what they’re paid.

By avoiding stone-handed SS Ian Desmond (when many MLB ‘experts’ were clamouring for the Padres sign him), Preller sent a message to MLB that the SD Padres are not interested in being suckers in the bloated free-agent market. General managers of Padres past (Josh Byrnes, Kevin Towers, etc.) would surely have handed Ian Desmond a 5-yr/$80M deal, when he isn’t worth 2-yr/$25M. That kind of bad contract kills any chance of winning.

AJ Preller

An efficient GM gets his arbitration players signed quickly, with fair raises because he knows they are underpaid to start. If these players under-perform, they get smaller raises; but they aren’t nickel & dimed, because they are bargains to begin with.  Conversely, a saavy GM avoids handing an overly-generous multi-year contract to an arbitration eligible player who doesn’t deserve it (see Jedd Gyorko), as this hurts the organization too.

When the 2015 season ended, the Padres farm system was universally ranked 30th– dead last. With the young talent already added, along with the bevy of picks Preller has lined up for the June amateur draft, the Padres will probably jump up to a the middle-of-the-pack system by the end of the 2016 season. That’s a solid plan with measurable progress, which is just what Padres fans need.  A.J. Preller had an ‘A+’ off-season, even if the Padres have a worse record in 2016– and he did it without making splashes.  There is a lot more upside with this organization now, and it’s because the Padres finally have a smart general manager.

Final Note to Padres Fans 1-16-16

Before I started posting in the Padres MLB.com forum, I observed the discussions; and it was mostly blame-storming, and always towards Bud Black, Murph, this player, that pitcher, etc…

Every team in sports is operated by a GM, and they are primarily responsible for an organization’s failure or success. They are the ones who must ALWAYS answer the tough questions and solve the difficult problems which inevitably arise. Whether that organization ever wins a championship is mostly on them.

A.J. Preller is definitely running the show for the Padres, and that is a 180-degree turnaround for this franchise, because since inception it’s always been the Show running the Padres.

A fan’s responsibility is to understand as much of what’s going on as possible, and educate other fans. When fans correctly understand when (and why?) to cheer vs. when to call out a mistake, player performance improves because they know they are being watched by intelligent & fair observers. Conversely, when angry fans act out with drunken belligerence, players tend to stop caring. Fans do have an influence, and a big part of it is what YOU share with others & bring to the ballpark.

……………….><><><><><><><>><><><><…………………….