NIL Heisman 2025: Arch Manning

Preface: This piece is satire

The Heisman Trophy is traditionally the most-coveted individual award in college football, given to the best player that season. But times have definitely changed, as traditional on-field performance still counts for something, but not as much as in the past. Winning & putting up numbers used to be the sole criteria for Heisman hopefuls, but now Name, Image & Likeness (NIL) deals have entered the equation and can no longer be ignored.

In this era of the transfer portal and 7-year seniors, NIL brings a level of recognition & clout that simply can’t be dismissed. First & foremost, an athlete has to play in a big-time conference to be relevant to the Heisman discussion anymore; meaning the Big 10 or SEC. The Big 12 & ACC are trying to compete, as Texas Tech has spent $28M in NIL money on their football team in 2025, largely driven by oil & gas billionaire Cody Campbell and his Matador Club, in the hopes of making a name for themselves. Currently Texas Tech is ranked #8 and squarely in position to make the 12-team CFP, so there you are.

Money is driving all of this, and Texas is certainly a football state. Billionaire alumni boosters & mega TV contracts strictly define the parameters of the haves & have-nots in the NCAA. Of course the University Texas is a blue-blood football school, and thus by having sophomore QB Arch Manning, they are positioned to make the CFP and compete for a national title.

Less than ever, winning in CFB depends on performance. The level of media attention, referee bias & talent manipulation in the NCAA is unprecedented. Having the top NIL athletes means power programs will get on TV a lot more, and that’s where the money is. Football is almost entirely driven by television revenue. Arch Manning was a big name coming into college, and has only gotten bigger in 2025. Yeah, his numbers and performance are somewhat disappointing, but that’s not too important. The fact that he is being paid $6.8M in NIL makes him an automatic Heisman front-runner for the entire season.

Let’s compare Arch Manning’s football stats to two other QB’s who are considered the top Heisman hopefuls by CFB analysts.

QB Indiana, Fernando Mendoza: 2,342 yards, TD 26, INT 5, QBR 88.1
QB Ohio State, Julian Sayin: 2,491 yards, TD 24, INT 4, QBR 91.1
QB Texas, Arch Manning: 2,123 yards, TD 18, INT 6, QBR 63.1

I know, these stats say Arch Manning isn’t at the level of the other two Heisman candidates, but let’s dive-in deeper and take a look at the only number that really matters in 2025– NIL money.

Manning: $6.8M
Mendoza: $2.6M
Sayin: $2.4M

Once we get down to brass tacks we see that Arch Manning is the man.

Keep in mind, these NIL numbers are subject to change. Fernando Mendoza & Julian Sayin have both picked up a few NIL deals because of their good play, so give them credit. But Arch Manning still leads them all by a wide margin, despite a rough start to his season. Arch Manning’s Texas Longhorns are ranked #10, with a big game at #5 Georgia coming up next.

I’ll declare this here & now: A win for Texas over Georgia ensures the NIL Heisman for Arch Manning, as this game will be on national TV with every college football fan watching. Even if Texas loses badly to the Bulldogs, Arch Manning still probably wins the Heisman, because (in this era) it’s all about getting eyeballs on your program, not necessarily winning. Arch Manning delivers that, and that’s why Texas is on national TV every week. Some people would criticize that as putting hype over performance, and I won’t argue. That’s the way it is now, and I’m just the messenger.

There have been some great QB’s who have won the Heisman in recent memory: Jayden Daniels (2023), Caleb Williams (2022), Joe Burrow (2019), Lamar Jackson (2016), to name a few; but none of them made $6.8M in NIL deals in their sophomore year. Arch Manning is putting up numbers that no other college QB has ever approached, and since money is the only thing that really matters, I fail to see how he isn’t the Heisman Trophy winner in 2025. If you disagree then I must ask: What game are you watching?

When you see the Texas defense dominate, that’s all Arch. When there’s a hand-off to a Longhorn RB for a 50+ yard run, that’s Arch, etc. This is because no one sees this or cares about it without Arch Manning. His teammates all understand this and gratefully defer all major media interviews, glory & future NIL deals to Arch Manning, because he is their meal ticket. That’s the new roster dynamic in college football.

Arch Manning has the potential to play two more years in CFB and make over $20M for himself, while leading his program to national prominence, if not a national title. He may only project as a back-up QB in the NFL, if even that, but his name recognition is what matters. College football in 2025 is all about Arch Manning and if you don’t acknowledge that, then you are behind the times.

To not get this means you’re the type of fan who believes performance actually matters. That kind of outdated, old-school thinking needs to be discarded. And if coaches & alumni complain too loudly about interceptions and bad QB play, Arch Manning will enter the transfer portal, and then where will Texas football be? They certainly won’t be on TV as much, so (as an alum) think twice about being critical of Arch Manning or any other highly paid NIL athlete, because they don’t need your football program or a university education. They need unconditional praise & NIL money.

What I have described above is my new criteria for a Heisman Trophy winner. This means that if an unknown RB gains 6,000 yards in a lesser conference, that’s fine & dandy, but not a Heisman Trophy worthy season, because no one saw it, and it didn’t generate any publicity or revenue as compared to the Arch of Austin Texas.

Postscript: Carson Beck, the former Georgia Bulldogs backup quarterback and part of two national championship teams, transferred to the Miami Hurricanes after withdrawing from the NFL draft after he saw his stock plummet. Back for his senior year of eligibility, Carson Beck is getting an estimated $3.2M in NIL money in 2025, a distant second in the NIL Heisman to Arch. Miami is ranked #16. Note all rankings & stats are ESPN & AP poll through week 12.

Oh, Carson Beck’s on-field 2025 traditional QB numbers are: 2,194 yards, TD 15, INT 9, QBR 78.1. Miami is ACC, a lesser conference, and has two “bad” losses in the eyes of the NCAA. In contrast, Arch could lose them all and there would be no bad losses, only headlines & the transfer portal.

Sources mention that Carson Beck has a degree in sports management from the University of Georgia. This begs the question: What post-graduation degree is Carson Beck pursuing at the University of Miami? Answer: professional football. His diploma is finishing second in the 2025 (& inaugural) NIL Heisman. Note that there’s no actual trophy, as that too has been replaced by money. Instead of graduating with honors, Carson Beck is graduating with millions of dollars. Universities everywhere aren’t what they used to be and neither is college athletics.

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Scholarship Athletes Unite!

Latest update on this story [8-18-15]:  The football players voted on unionization in April 2014, and the ballot box was immediately impounded by Northwestern University & the NCAA. The votes still haven’t been counted, so the reformists don’t know what to do. [1]

Ed O’Bannon won his case, in a ruling that states college athletes can now share in the billions of dollars they generate annually.  The ruling is being appealed by lawyers for the NCAA.

The NLRB decided not to approve the Northwestern University football players request to form a union, and this issue will likely eventually go to the Supreme Court.

ed-obannon-ucla

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The regional director of the National Labor Relations Board in Chicago, Peter Sung Ohr, ruled on Wednesday March 26 that Northwestern University football players are university employees.

Employees are legally entitled to be paid and to bargain collectively.

The NCAA is a billion-dollar entertainment industry, which has had the advantage of virtually free labor for its entire existence.  In a court of law, this brings up anti-trust and worker’s rights legal challenges, which are coming to a head with this landmark ruling by Judge Ohr.  Ohr ruled that the primary function of the Northwestern football players is to make money for Northwestern University.  The Northwestern football players proved in court that the Wildcats coaches have strict control over their schedules and lives. Scholarships are contingent on athletic performance. This defines them as employees, and renders the NCAA definition of ‘student-athlete’ irrelevant.

This case is being merged with the Ed O’Bannon case and other high-profile legal action against the NCAA, in order to address the exploitation of scholarship athletes. It is being limited in scope to private universities and (as of this writing) only includes football & men’s basketball.  If the Northwestern football players win, it would set a precedent that state universities and all of men’s college basketball would have to follow, due to fundamental to free market principles.

Allowing ALL the best high-school athletes in ALL sports to be free agents, with the right to collectively negotiate employer contracts with universities, would be a revolutionary worker’s victory.  What is being crafted is a reformist solution, fronted by Ramogi Huma and backed by the United Steel Workers union leader Leo Gerard.  Gerard is intimately tied to the Democratic Party machine and organized crime.  Unions need to be understood as nothing more than legalized mafias.

Limiting this case to only football and men’s basketball, the two highest revenue-generating sports, is a conscious ruling-class decision designed to keep the process from spinning out of their control. “Limiting this case gives us the strongest case”, Ramogi explained.  What he fails to mention is that lack of strength is not the problem, as most legal experts now agree that Ohr’s decision will be difficult to overturn on argumentative grounds.

The NCAA & Northwestern University have mostly declined comment on any of the legal proceedings, and the few statements from their spokespeople are widely interpreted as red herrings or insubstantial.  This case wins on the same argumentative grounds if it includes all scholarship athletes.

So why doesn’t it?

It’s because the issues involved go to the heart of capitalist values, while touching a nerve of personal interest for sports fans.  Bringing sports into any discussion, especially a political one, generally primes people to begin screaming & cheerleading instead of thinking about what’s going on. That is the nature of sports, and that’s the danger for scholarship athletes; they’ll lose perspective through the hype.

Many U.S. college graduates are passionate alumni.  They particularly cheer its athletics, and many donate to its success.  It’s a primary reason a significant percentage matriculate to a particular institution. In the end, success in football and men’s basketball is a vicarious pleasure for alumni; a point of pride that drives it.  That, and the fact that it makes billions of dollars annually.

College sports is also a job for EVERY scholarship athlete, which they can not quit without losing their benefits.  Basketball, field hockey, lacrosse, tennis, etc.. men’s & women’s; they’re all the same.

The ridiculousness of the NCAA’s insistence on defining scholarship athletes as ‘amateurs’ can be drawn out in an analogy with academic scholarships. Academic scholarship students are allowed to attain employment while in school. Many do. Imagine a math major not being able to accept a private tutoring job, because she is defined by the university as an ‘amateur.’ By NCAA rules, if this hypothetical math genius takes the job and is found out, her scholarship is lost.  Clearly the rules & institutions for college athletics have become archaic, but what do we replace them with?

The modest proposal from what’s left of liberalism, is mostly an attempt to confuse and disorient these young exploited workers.  It’s handling is important to the ruling class because this is happening at institutions of higher learning, where revolutionary ideas & impulses can spread quickly.  Scholarship athletes still largely have open minds, and that is understood as a danger to elite opinion.

If the current agenda of Huma Ramogi and his Democratic Party backers win their way through the courts, then little will change for most university scholarship athletes in football & basketball.  The black market pay-for-play system will simply be converted into an open market pay-for-play system.  The few top recruits that receive large university contracts will make the headlines, but the new revenue sharing deal with the NCAA and the universities will mostly flow to union bureaucrats and machinery. Very little money will flow down to less talented players or to other sports, since they were never part of the discussion.

What needs to be done is the organizing of ALL scholarship athletes, across the U.S. & beyond, into their own union.  Athletes need to be their own leaders and represent themselves, otherwise few of their grievances will be addressed.  What can Leo Gerard & the Steel Workers Union possibly understand about the lives of college athletes?  Can these athletes trust the SWU leader, who has facilitated a list of corporate mergers which have destroyed hundreds of thousands of jobs in the process, to represent their interests? These questions need to be asked & rationally answered, out loud.

University athletic programs will be shuttered whether this case is upheld or overturned, due to the depressed condition of the free market.  This modest proposal as-is will only accelerate that process, as open bidding will allow the biggest conferences to monopolize the best talent. Those smaller conferences and institutions that can’t pay the market rate for athletic talent will wither & die.

Every university should have a competitive athletic program that: 1) fairly compensates athletes with full employee rights; 2) does everything possible to protect athletes from injury; 3) treats the athlete for as long as necessary when injury does occur; 4) allows the athlete time to finish his/her education, even after their playing eligibility expires.

This can only happen if ALL college athletes unite democratically under their own leadership.