Monthly Archives: November 2025

Bitcoin’s latest death spiral

Posted on by

Preface: This is a serial that went one week– Sunday, November 16 through Sunday, November 23. Note that if you see ‘time stamps’ indicating different days of publication, that’s a serial. I don’t know when a serial is going to end, until it ends and I find out about it. There is a lag between when it actually ends, and me finding out, because I’m not privy to the closed-door discussions of the financial & political elites who run the world. I can only know & understand them through the propaganda they disseminate, which must be carefully deciphered to be correctly understood by the kids & working masses. The financial elites have decided (by indicating a December Fed rate cut) that bitcoin can’t be allowed to collapse, as it was doing again this past week. This blog (which specializes in crypto criticism) chronicled the process, and since a new level of “stability” has been reached, this story is over– for now. That’s how this serial ends. Come find me again when the next bitcoin crash happens, it won’t be long now. It won’t be very long.

Bitcoin has had quite a roller coaster run since Trump was elected last November. Exactly one year ago, bitcoin was valued at $89,875.56 on Coindesk’s tracker. It was at $106,188.14 on January 20, when Trump took office for this second term. Trump launched his own crypto, held a crypto summit, and had legislation passed that gave legitimacy & bailout protection to the industry.

Bitcoin peaked at $124,714.85 on October 4, 2025.

Less than a week later, on October 10, President Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on China, on top of the 30% already in place, to be effective on November 1. Bitcoin has been dropping ever since. This, and the reduced likelihood of a December Fed interest rate cut has sent bitcoin plunging. Here’s a recent screenshot of the Coindesk bitcoin ticker over the last year.

Bitcoin now faces a key $94-92K support test, with any dip below that level threatening a deeper fall to possibly $70K (or worse) amid massive liquidity outflows. For some reason, the crypto industry has chosen this price level ($92-94K) as a key point in its development. It may take some time, since there is such strong institutional support at $92-94K, but when this level is breached, apparently there isn’t much institutional support below this level until ~$70-74K. If that happens, all but the biggest crypto whales in bitcoin will be wiped out.

The future existence of crypto is being tested right now. Crypto whales are burning cash (while secretly selling bitcoin) to keep bitcoin afloat, as small investors are being liquidated, while new investors are too few. The entire crypto market is in ‘Extreme Fear’ according to industry analysts. Crypto whale Elon Musk stated less than a week ago that bitcoin & AI were the way out of the US $38T debt. In fact, bitcoin is only the latest manifestation of a problem that has created such an unpayable mountain of debt.

Update: Mon 17 Nov 2025 1:00 PM CST

Right now crypto whales are buying bitcoin, as they burn through their cash trying to prop up its market value. As discussed above, $92-94K is a strong institutional price level. What this means is that crypto whales have all agreed that this price level must be strongly supported with cash infusions when necessary, in order to maintain the bubble.

Holding over 1000 BTC is the definition of a whale. Right now there are 1300-1500 bitcoin whales in existence, but not all whales are created equally. Elon Musk is a huge whale, but his influence has been muted somewhat by his conflicts with Donald Trump, who is now also a whale– along with his family.

Michael Saylor is a very influential crypto whale. According to Coindesk, Michael Saylor now holds “649,870 BTC acquired for $48.37 billion, or $74,433 each.” This explains the $74K price level, discussed above. Whatever the average price a large whale has paid for their bitcoin becomes an institutional price level. No market has ever been more manipulated by insider trading than bitcoin/crypto.

As of this writing bitcoin is ~$92.5K. Under intense downward pressure, crypto whales now have two conflicting strategies. The biggest such as Michael Saylor are burning cash to buy bitcoin. This props up the market and increases their monopoly power in crypto. Some smaller whales are selling their bitcoin. Fear has created panic, so some whales are cashing out.

Instead of big fish eating little fish, which is crypto business as usual, it’s now whales eating whales which isn’t sustainable. Once the skittish whales have sold out, the hardcore whales have a larger stake in bitcoin– with no buyers but themselves. No newbie wants to enter the crypto market when it’s crashing, as it is now. So the question becomes: How long can the crypto whales hold out? That answer depends on their available cash, access to credit, and the willingness of Congress to give them a bailout.

Sun 23 Nov 2025 09:05 AM CST

On Friday November 21, Federal Reserve Bank of New York president John Williams announced a possible rate cut in December. Since then, bitcoin which had plunged to ~$80K, has made a miraculous recovery, now at $86K and rising again. This is how the capitalist market operates, workers who need a loan can’t get one, while the Fed always makes more money available to crypto.

Clearly, the crypto whales have exerted their nefarious influence again, implying if bitcoin goes down, the whole stock market could collapse. That was the content of Bloomberg, Barron’s, etc, articles before a possible rate cut (now estimated at 70%) was announced on Friday. Crypto is intimately linked to AI, so whenever you read about the “AI bubble”, think bitcoin, as big banks & universities (such as Harvard) are in on bitcoin. This episode once again reveals that crypto/bitcoin is the weakest link in the capitalist fake economy.

Top comment I read on Yahoo! during this time-frame: “Something is wrong when $19 Billion in liquidations causes a 20 something percent drop in an “asset” with a $1.9 Trillion market cap. That is only a 1% liquidation. There are much bigger dominoes to fall.”

………<><><><><><><>……..

Arch rivals collide in Athens

Posted on by

Preface: This is the epilogue to NIL Heisman 2025: Arch Manning

Georgia mauled Texas 35-10 last night as the Longhorns were severely outplayed & outcoached. Arch Manning was mediocre in his performance. Clearly, this is still a young kid trying to figure out college football. The expectations he faces, due to his family name, are impossible.

Most glaringly, Arch Manning needs to improve his accuracy & decision making. I also don’t see this ‘great athlete’ scouts have been raving about. He looked slow against that Georgia defense. Arch Manning knows how to play QB & read defenses, those are his strengths along with his physical size & arm strength. But he needs two more years of college play with a lot of improvement before he’s NFL-ready. NIL deals & the transfer portal make that decision easier for Arch Manning.

The satire in my previous piece was not directed at Arch Manning, as much as it was towards the crazy system that now exists in the NCAA. Arch Manning was being hyped pre-season as the top pick in the 2026 NFL draft. Two things influenced that: 1) the family name; and 2) the $6.8M in NIL money. That wins the NIL Heisman, but little else. That gets eyeballs on the TV, but for what? To watch Arch Manning not live up to expectations. That’s called setting someone up to fail, and it’s all for the money, which is a shame.

What Georgia football head coach Kirby Smart is saying above is that it takes a team to win. Georgia, like all the other SEC programs, is spending money, finding NIL deals for its athletes in an attempt to win a national championship. It’s that, or bust every year for these elite programs. But paying one guy $6.8M makes your team all about him, and if he isn’t ready, then you have nothing, as Kirby Smart says.

Note that my satirical pre-game discussion has even more bite after the game. Sports fans were reading my satirical piece, many anticipating a great performance by Arch Manning, but were disappointed. I made no predictions on the outcome, but notice that everything discussed still holds true & maintains its relevance. That’s because what I’m discussing is bigger than the game on the field. These games are more circuses than real competition anymore, so we need to look at them differently than we have in the past.

………….<><><><><><>…………..

NIL Heisman 2025: Arch Manning

Posted on by

Preface: This piece is satire

The Heisman Trophy is traditionally the most-coveted individual award in college football, given to the best player that season. But times have definitely changed, as traditional on-field performance still counts for something, but not as much as in the past. Winning & putting up numbers used to be the sole criteria for Heisman hopefuls, but now Name, Image & Likeness (NIL) deals have entered the equation and can no longer be ignored.

In this era of the transfer portal and 7-year seniors, NIL brings a level of recognition & clout that simply can’t be dismissed. First & foremost, an athlete has to play in a big-time conference to be relevant to the Heisman discussion anymore; meaning the Big 10 or SEC. The Big 12 & ACC are trying to compete, as Texas Tech has spent $28M in NIL money on their football team in 2025, largely driven by oil & gas billionaire Cody Campbell and his Matador Club, in the hopes of making a name for themselves. Currently Texas Tech is ranked #8 and squarely in position to make the 12-team CFP, so there you are.

Money is driving all of this, and Texas is certainly a football state. Billionaire alumni boosters & mega TV contracts strictly define the parameters of the haves & have-nots in the NCAA. Of course the University Texas is a blue-blood football school, and thus by having sophomore QB Arch Manning, they are positioned to make the CFP and compete for a national title.

Less than ever, winning in CFB depends on performance. The level of media attention, referee bias & talent manipulation in the NCAA is unprecedented. Having the top NIL athletes means power programs will get on TV a lot more, and that’s where the money is. Football is almost entirely driven by television revenue. Arch Manning was a big name coming into college, and has only gotten bigger in 2025. Yeah, his numbers and performance are somewhat disappointing, but that’s not too important. The fact that he is being paid $6.8M in NIL makes him an automatic Heisman front-runner for the entire season.

Let’s compare Arch Manning’s football stats to two other QB’s who are considered the top Heisman hopefuls by CFB analysts.

QB Indiana, Fernando Mendoza: 2,342 yards, TD 26, INT 5, QBR 88.1
QB Ohio State, Julian Sayin: 2,491 yards, TD 24, INT 4, QBR 91.1
QB Texas, Arch Manning: 2,123 yards, TD 18, INT 6, QBR 63.1

I know, these stats say Arch Manning isn’t at the level of the other two Heisman candidates, but let’s dive-in deeper and take a look at the only number that really matters in 2025– NIL money.

Manning: $6.8M
Mendoza: $2.6M
Sayin: $2.4M

Once we get down to brass tacks we see that Arch Manning is the man.

Keep in mind, these NIL numbers are subject to change. Fernando Mendoza & Julian Sayin have both picked up a few NIL deals because of their good play, so give them credit. But Arch Manning still leads them all by a wide margin, despite a rough start to his season. Arch Manning’s Texas Longhorns are ranked #10, with a big game at #5 Georgia coming up next.

I’ll declare this here & now: A win for Texas over Georgia ensures the NIL Heisman for Arch Manning, as this game will be on national TV with every college football fan watching. Even if Texas loses badly to the Bulldogs, Arch Manning still probably wins the Heisman, because (in this era) it’s all about getting eyeballs on your program, not necessarily winning. Arch Manning delivers that, and that’s why Texas is on national TV every week. Some people would criticize that as putting hype over performance, and I won’t argue. That’s the way it is now, and I’m just the messenger.

There have been some great QB’s who have won the Heisman in recent memory: Jayden Daniels (2023), Caleb Williams (2022), Joe Burrow (2019), Lamar Jackson (2016), to name a few; but none of them made $6.8M in NIL deals in their sophomore year. Arch Manning is putting up numbers that no other college QB has ever approached, and since money is the only thing that really matters, I fail to see how he isn’t the Heisman Trophy winner in 2025. If you disagree then I must ask: What game are you watching?

When you see the Texas defense dominate, that’s all Arch. When there’s a hand-off to a Longhorn RB for a 50+ yard run, that’s Arch, etc. This is because no one sees this or cares about it without Arch Manning. His teammates all understand this and gratefully defer all major media interviews, glory & future NIL deals to Arch Manning, because he is their meal ticket. That’s the new roster dynamic in college football.

Arch Manning has the potential to play two more years in CFB and make over $20M for himself, while leading his program to national prominence, if not a national title. He may only project as a back-up QB in the NFL, if even that, but his name recognition is what matters. College football in 2025 is all about Arch Manning and if you don’t acknowledge that, then you are behind the times.

To not get this means you’re the type of fan who believes performance actually matters. That kind of outdated, old-school thinking needs to be discarded. And if coaches & alumni complain too loudly about interceptions and bad QB play, Arch Manning will enter the transfer portal, and then where will Texas football be? They certainly won’t be on TV as much, so (as an alum) think twice about being critical of Arch Manning or any other highly paid NIL athlete, because they don’t need your football program or a university education. They need unconditional praise & NIL money.

What I have described above is my new criteria for a Heisman Trophy winner. This means that if an unknown RB gains 6,000 yards in a lesser conference, that’s fine & dandy, but not a Heisman Trophy worthy season, because no one saw it, and it didn’t generate any publicity or revenue as compared to the Arch of Austin Texas.

Postscript: Carson Beck, the former Georgia Bulldogs backup quarterback and part of two national championship teams, transferred to the Miami Hurricanes after withdrawing from the NFL draft after he saw his stock plummet. Back for his senior year of eligibility, Carson Beck is getting an estimated $3.2M in NIL money in 2025, a distant second in the NIL Heisman to Arch. Miami is ranked #16. Note all rankings & stats are ESPN & AP poll through week 12.

Oh, Carson Beck’s on-field 2025 traditional QB numbers are: 2,194 yards, TD 15, INT 9, QBR 78.1. Miami is ACC, a lesser conference, and has two “bad” losses in the eyes of the NCAA. In contrast, Arch could lose them all and there would be no bad losses, only headlines & the transfer portal.

Sources mention that Carson Beck has a degree in sports management from the University of Georgia. This begs the question: What post-graduation degree is Carson Beck pursuing at the University of Miami? Answer: professional football. His diploma is finishing second in the 2025 (& inaugural) NIL Heisman. Note that there’s no actual trophy, as that too has been replaced by money. Instead of graduating with honors, Carson Beck is graduating with millions of dollars. Universities everywhere aren’t what they used to be and neither is college athletics.

……….<><><><><><>………..