Category Archives: Economics

Flushing the Mookie Betts salary dump

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Preface: This is my fourth & final piece with “Mookie Betts salary dump” in the title. My initial installment was published on February 1, a few days before the proposed deal hit the media. “Postscript on the Mookie Betts salary dump” was published on February 5, shortly after the deal was announced, and it looked like everything was over. “‘Adjusting’ the Mookie Betts salary dump” was published on February 7, as the fake media went silent on this mega-deal falling apart. These four essays will endure in sports literature as the best analysis of what happened here– in real time.

It looked so clean & elegant when it was first reported in the sports media on Tuesday evening, February 4, 2020:

DODGERS GET: OF Mookie Betts, LHP David Price & ~$48M [!] cash (all from BOS)
RED SOX GET: OF Alex Verdugo (from LAD), RHP Brusdar Graterol (MLB Pipeline’s No. 83 prospect, from MIN)
TWINS GET: RHP Kenta Maeda (from LAD)

…and then the clincher for Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman…

ANGELS GET: OF Joc Pederson, RHP Ross Stripling, OF prospect Andy Pages
DODGERS GET: IF Luis Rengifo

Joc Pederson was to be Andrew Friedman’s salary dump, to keep the Dodgers under the CBT. Pederson is a free agent in November. With Mookie Betts apparently in RF, the Dodgers were ready for a championship run in 2020. For Angels GM Billy Eppler, this was an opportunity to upgrade his outfield, and possibly extend Joc Pederson if it worked out well.

Instead, Joc Pederson had the distinction of going through an arbitration hearing with the Dodgers (which he lost), while believing he was being traded to the Angels. If MLB had any ethics, it would have: 1) suspended the Pederson arbitration hearing until after the proposed trade deal was resolved– one way or another; and 2) set a hard deadline for the deal’s resolution.

MLB did neither.Why? Because it was acting as an agent of the Red Sox to get the deal done on Boston’s terms. The Red Sox kept pushing for more time, but time eventually ran out.

A lot of really diligent & talented front offices worked very hard this winter to make their teams better, only to have it destroyed by Red Sox pettiness, arrogance & greed. What a colossal waste of time! This is now officially, “The greatest baseball trade that never happened.”

The Dodgers were always motivated to get this deal done. In the end it was on them to deal more prospects to Boston. They didn’t, as they felt they had given up enough already, and were probably correct. Here’s a good analysis from their perspective.

In short, the Joc Pederson arbitration hearing was a disaster for the Dodgers, even though the team won the case. They will pay Pederson $7.75M in 2020, but the Dodgers & MLB look really bad. It resembled a Julian Assange hearing in many respects. Kenta Maeda wants to be a starter so he can earn contract bonuses, but is being used as a reliever, especially down the stretch. The Twins would have put Maeda in their rotation. It would have been a great deal for the Twins.

The third Dodgers piece was Alex Verdugo, a high-end young talent in RF. I’ve been wondering why Andrew Friedman had been so willing to part with him. I had speculated in an earlier piece that it could be a core injury which was lowering his value.

But due diligence & sticking with a story eventually brought me here. It’s been alleged that Alex Verdugo was witness to his minor-league teammate, James Baldwin, sexually assaulting an underage girl at a team party in Rancho Cucamunga. There was a police report filed. This is an ugly organizational story. Dealing Alex Verdugo moves a big part of it to Boston. Apparently MLB is aware of all this, but hasn’t taken action. Very murky.

At ~3:15 PM EST, on Saturday, February 8, it was reported by MLB that Brusdar Graterol had been pulled back by the Minnesota Twins from the proposed Mookie Betts blockbuster. This announcement all but killed the deal, along with the concurrent proposed Dodgers-Angels swap.

An hour later, and the news is reverberating through the baseball world. It will soon be announced by MLB that the whole deal(s) is off. So I’m now finally able to publish this piece (which I had already written) at ~4:20 PM EST. This story actually wrote itself is how I look at it. So what the bleep happened?!

Once the Twins pulled back Brusdar Graterol, the Dodgers took back Kenta Maeda. This probably happened on late Wednesday or early Thursday, looking at the fake media reporting, but was kept quiet to try to get the Twins management to change their minds. They rightfully didn’t. This means the Red Sox take back David Price and all of his 3/$96 remaining. That leaves only Alex Verdugo for Mookie Betts at $27M.

All that puts the Dodgers-Angels proposal in jeopardy. You can see how quickly this unraveled. The money the Red Sox were going to eat on Price was never nailed down. It was reported to be “around half” of his remaining deal, but this was still being hotly negotiated after the deal was announced.

This means money, between the Red Sox & Dodgers, was an issue in killing this deal. Once it’s down to Betts-for-Verdugo, the $27M for one season becomes a problem, because this one season is all there is for the Dodgers. Especially when they are giving up a promising, cost-controlled young player to the Red Sox.

That’s why David Price had to be in the deal, for GM Andrew Friedman to part with Alex Verdugo. That’s why Verdugo-for-Betts straight-up doesn’t work. From the Dodgers GM perspective, the Red Sox needed to eat salary on Mookie Betts. The Red Sox wouldn’t (and couldn’t) do this, because this was supposed to be a salary dump in order to get under the CBT. The problem is Red Sox dysfunction, all down the line.

The final story is about the Minnesota Twins [!] taking a stand on medical/player ethics. This is a case of an “unethical medical records leak” in professional sports by the Boston Red Sox, used to gain leverage in trade negotiations. This is now a union grievance with the MLBPA. For the players involved it’s a privacy issue, just like for patients in any doctor’s office or hospital setting.

By today (Saturday), noon EST, Brusdar Graterol’s agent, Scott Boras finally responded to these unethical Red Sox assertions. “To suggest that this player is not healthy going forward, or has any form of substantive medical defect that would in any way damage his career, all of that is false,” Boras told The Boston Globe.

“This is a scant supposition created by medical review, by someone who has never seen him physically. I don’t know Boston’s position on this. I know that people are suggesting that Graterol has some malady about him medically, which is inaccurate. That supposition is false. He is in spring training. He’s ready to throw without limitations going forward through the season. And there’s no suggestion that there’s anything at issue with this player in the current or immediate aspects of his career.”

The medical rule is: don’t discuss patient/player data with outside parties, without their recorded consent. It’s a serious breach of doctor-patient ethics to do so. The same ethics exist for team-player relationships in professional sports.

As a practicing dentist for over 25 years, I know the professional lines in discussing patient information. Basically, you don’t do it. Patients don’t want it leaked, because once it’s out there, it’s public domain. The Red Sox blatantly breached a player’s right-to-privacy in their leaking the confidential medical records of RHP Brusdar Graterol. The Twins fairly deserve some form of compensation from the Red Sox.

Hypothetical question: How would you like another company interested in your services, leaking private medical & personal information to the media, in order to de-value you? This was done by the Red Sox in order to gain advantage in grabbing more assets in the already-agreed-upon Mookie Betts deal.

How do you think Brusdar Graderol felt about being traded to the Red Sox after hearing all this uproar? Terrified, possibly? I think that’s a reasonable assumption. A responsible GM can’t trade a top young prospect under the toxic circumstances created by the Red Sox. It would be unprofessional. What kind of message would it send to all the players in the Twins organization?

Patients (players) don’t care how much you know, until they know how much you care. That’s the golden rule in dealing with human beings. GM’s running their organizations are like doctors running a practice, in that they are responsible for a lot of people. If you throw someone under the bus like that, everyone sees it, and it kills morale.

The Red Sox have no such ethics on this, they only care about winning & whining– in debatable order. They are again about to be sanctioned by MLB, this time over using iPhone watches to stream live center-field camera video of the opposing catcher’s signs to the pitcher. A bench coach under manager Alex Cora would relay it to Red Sox runners-on-base. That’s quite a Fenway advantage, and it puts an asterisk on their 2018 World Series season. Just like the Houston Astros in 2017.

I believe the best deterrence for illegal video usage is fan disgust with this type of cheating. That, and serious MLB investigations & sanctions for proven offenders. Live video used to steal signs totally sucks, because it’s completely unfair to the opposing team. When fans start losing respect for the players & the game, changes must be made. That’s perhaps the biggest storyline in baseball this past winter.

Since the Yankees were also involved in this, and likely originated it, expect the sanctions for the Red Sox to be less severe than they were for the Houston Astros. It’s Carlos Beltran signing with the Astros as a free agent on December 5, 2016, after nearly three years with the Yankees, that helped Houston perfect its system of video cheating. Beltran brought it from the Bronx to Houston.

That’s why Beltran was fired by the New York Mets this winter, after being hired weeks earlier. Carlos Beltran’s career MLB managing record will forever be 0-0. The Yankees don’t want an investigation into their original 2014-16 sign-stealing schemes, so they’ll make a deal with Red Sox wheels in the MLB commissioner’s office to go lightly on Boston, as a quid pro quo for no New York Yankees investigation. That’s east coast bias in action. Watch for it.

Coincidentally, ESPN just published an article implicating an Astros intern as the source of MLB video sign stealing. That’s been the top headlines on MLB & ESPN for the past two days, while the silence on the Betts deal in limbo is deafening. All this immediately confirms my conspiracy theory that the impending Red Sox punishment will be less severe than it was for the Astros. The AJ Hinch apology videos (& Astros players defiance) can all be seen as pro-Red Sox propaganda, to deflect attention from their sins. We’ll see who is correct here, soon enough.

After all this, the Red Sox deserve yet another investigation, this time in breaching player medical privacy ethics for gain in trade talks. There’s lots of corporate media complicity here, so I don’t see this going anywhere. The Red Sox & MLB are a mafia, and they’ve both had difficult winters. More & more fans outside of these inner MLB circles are now understanding the depth of this corruption. I’ve used The Office (2005-13) as a pictorial metaphor for all this corporate dysfunction.

The Los Angeles Dodgers can still get Mookie Betts in free agency, next winter, if that’s what they want. You can be sure that Andrew Friedman & the rest of his GM colleagues don’t want to deal with the Red Sox again anytime soon.

For me as a sportswriter with an outsider’s perspective, it’s been a fascinating story which I’ve been enthusiastic to cover. I understand that I’m strictly censored, but I’ve learned that the truth (when well phrased) quickly gets out to enough of the right people in time to make a difference.

This Mookie Betts deal was so tense, emotional, & tightly wound, that the excess strain from Red Sox meddling caused it to burst apart. Once the Twins pulled back Brusdar Graterol, out of respect for their valued young player & themselves, this mega-deal fell apart. When that happened, all the king’s mouthpieces, and all the Red Sox yes-men, couldn’t put Humpty-Dumpty back together again. The dominoes all tumbled, and the Dodgers, Twins & Angels are left with nothing for all their weeks of time & energy spent.

They, all probably deserve some compensation from MLB over this despicable dealing in bad faith by the Boston Red Sox. All the Red Sox had to do was sign on the bottom line, and it was over. They had a great deal. Their real fans knew it. Just sign it, you bleeping bleep-holes!!

But no, it was unacceptable in its tiniest detail, so management had to insist on more. And now the Red Sox have Mookie Betts & David Price back, and they’re still well above the CBT, which ownership mandated they get below back in November.

Question: Who wants to deal with the Boston Red Sox now? Answer: Nobody. Would you? It’s pitchers & catchers starting next week, so now nothing is possible until July at the earliest, if at all, after especially so much bad blood. By then Mookie Betts will have already earned approximately two-thirds of his 2020 salary. That makes it too late for Boston to dump him, and get below the CBT.

The Red Sox & Dodgers desperately tried all the way to the end to find another trade partner to make this deal go through. If I was Padres GM AJ Preller, I would have gotten both these teams together on a three-way call to pitch a final offer. Something like, “So you both need another player to make this deal work, huh? Wil Myers is available.” Click. Click. LOL!! Call it payback for being suspended by MLB over “undisclosed anti-inflammatories” in the Drew Pomeranz deal. No love lost for the Dodgers either.

How can the GM (& a lot of other people in upper management, medical, legal, media, etc) keep their privileged Red Sox jobs, after blowing the biggest deal this organization had to make, since they traded Babe Ruth to the Yankees? Roughly 100 years after that infamous baseball disaster deal, the Red Sox again grasped defeat, this time after victory had been painstakingly negotiated, They wouldn’t claim it.

Losing sight of one’s primary objective, as badly as Red Sox management has bungled it here, is astoundingly incompetent. In Taipan they would all grade out as shipwrecked galley hands. But I don’t expect any high-level firings in Boston management for this fiasco, because the Red Sox (above all else) take care of their own. They will use their media clout to blame the Twins for not “playing ball,” or the Dodgers for not giving up enough, or some other hateful nonsense meant to acquit themselves.

There were obviously forces within the Red Sox organization, and their rabid fan base, that didn’t want this trade to happen. They did everything to sabotage it. Those are their haters, and they won– again. Any kind of respectable ownership would ruthlessly purge this self-defeating filth from its organization, but not the Boston Red Sox.

And finally, let’s be clear on the role of the corporate media in this sordid, manipulative affair. Every time Buster Olney, Ken Rosenthal, et al, speculated on Brusdar Graterol’s “shoulder injury” over the past few days, they were acting not as baseball journalists, but tools of the Boston Red Sox. These willful & repeated violations of privacy prove these “reporters” have no ethics, and thus no credibility. They are all backed by an east coast mafia, so unfortunately they aren’t going to go away, despite their shameful actions in plain sight.

This is a classic case of the Red Sox being their own worst enemy. Anyone following along, could see it, and did. I commend Twins management & ownership for sticking it to the Red Sox. No one deserves it more than Red Sox Nation, and they’ve have had it a-coming for a long time. It’s the only satisfaction the Twins & all other baseball fans will get here. There was no other reasonable option.

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“Adjusting” the Mookie Betts salary dump

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Here were are at the end of the week, Friday after 5:00 PM EST, and the proposed deal of RF Mookie Betts & LHP David Price to the Dodgers, which was announced Tuesday evening and had everybody buzzing Wednesday morning, has gone into deep freeze mode.

There have been no meaningful updates on this situation by MLB or ESPN on Thursday & Friday. No other stories are being followed by baseball fans, because this was supposed to be the biggest blockbuster of the winter. The eyes of the baseball world have been on this Red Sox salary dump for over three months, and still all we have are possible scenarios & rumors.

Teams are hiding from the media, and no one from these organizations is going on-the-record at this point. The teams involved are the Red Sox, Dodgers, Twins & Angels. Everything you’ve read in the media is from the Red Sox or Dodgers perspective. Let me try to explain the Twins perspective, which is the key here. The Minnesota Twins are a good team who won 101 games last year, but got swept again by the Yankees in the ALDS. They have a smart GM in Thad Levine, and a limited budget.

Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman gave Thad Levine a call a week-or-two ago, and said, “How would you like to trade young righty reliever Brusdar Graterol for starter Kenta Maeda? It’ll be part of the package we send back to the Red Sox for Mookie Betts & David Price.” If you’re Twins GM Thad Levine, you say, “Sure. Sounds great!” Right?

Except it’s the Boston Red Sox, who go into re-negotiation mode every time they look at a young pitcher’s medical records. The Red Sox management line becomes, “We have changed our projections after having had a look at the opposing side’s proprietary medical & player data. We demand another player to make us whole again.” This is how it is presented to the world by Ken Rosenthal and the rest of the baseball media.

What the HELL is Twins general manager Thad Levine supposed to do? He really wants Kenta Maeda in the Twins rotation, with his affordable contract for four seasons. But the problem is the Boston Red Sox have unilaterally decided to de-value Brusdar Graderol– one of their top prospects. Of course the Red Sox still insist they want Graderol (who wouldn’t?), it’s just that he isn’t projecting to be as good as they thought, so therefore the Twins need to cough up another prospect. Say what?!

What do you do if you’re Thad Levine? This is really disrespectful, and respect has currency among GM’s. He was led to believe this was going to be an easy deal on his end, and now his organization being extorted by the east coast sports mafia. If the Red Sox really needed more in this deal (and they don’t), then it’s the Dodgers who should kick in. The trade for Maeda sends Graderol to the Dodgers, who is then sent to Boston for David Price. The Twins have nothing to do with that. But I haven’t read that analysis anywhere in the corporate, pro-Sox sports media. That means the Dodgers are part of this fix to screw the Twins.

Reader comments, on the other hand, overwhelmingly favor the sentiment and reasoning I’ve expressed here. Getting involved with the Red Sox in any major deal comes with bitter poisons, so beware. Teams that break even on deals, get slandered & marginalized by a blatantly biased east coast media, which is all-powerful.

No one else is allowed to win a deal with the Red Sox. Management can get sanctioned by MLB itself, for making too many good deals, because teams like the Yankees & Red Sox control MLB. They staff it’s executive offices with their people. It’s tough for an outsider to get a meaningful job in the MLB commissioners office. Like I said, it’s a mafia.

So right now there is an omerta-like silence among the teams involved, with full cooperation from their media arms. That’s what fear & power does. So much for the fans who follow the game. They would surely like to know what’s going on, but they’re kept in the dark on these conversations, while being blitzed with pro-Red Sox propaganda meant to gain them leverage. Nothing is being reported, which means things are REALLY heated between these clubs.

This is not just about who gets a valuable player in Mookie Betts, it’s now about challenging one team’s ability to renegotiate trades, after they’ve been agreed upon & announced to the media. If the Red Sox had serious questions on Brusdar Graderol’s medical history, they should have asked to see the data before the deal was announced to the media. That’s the issue for the Twins.

Of course, the Red Sox are playing all this as they’ve planned. They didn’t want to make this Mookie Betts trade, so they’ve made as many other people suffer for it as possible. That’s the Red Sox way. Will this deal fall apart? Yesterday when it was first announced there was a hold-up, it was stated that the chances were “slim” that the deal wouldn’t go through. Today it’s “more likely, than not” that it will go through. It’s now officially the weekend on the east coast, and still no word from any of the organizations or MLB…

MLBPA chief Tony Clark just made this announcement at 5:15 PM EST, reported on ESPN. “The proposed trades between the Dodgers, Red Sox, Twins, and Angels need to be resolved without further delay. The events of this last week have unfairly put several Players’ lives in a state of limbo. The unethical leaking of medical information as well as the perversion of the salary arbitration process serve as continued reminders that too often Players are treated as commodities by those running the game.”

Here’s a news flash: pitchers & catchers report next week. Remember that Brusdar Graderol is a pitcher, and it’s really important that he knows which plane to get on when it’s time to report to camp. Stay tuned here for a final update on this drawn out & sordid affair, when a resolution is reached.

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Postscript on the Mookie Betts salary dump

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Well it finally happened. The Red Sox have announced the dumping of RF Mookie Betts & LHP David Price to the Los Angeles Dodgers. It turns out that LA GM Andrew Friedman was willing to give up young RF Alex Verdugo, which is the key piece in the deal. Verdugo missed the last two months of the 2019 season with core & back issues, which is a red flag.

If Alex Verdugo is an injury bust, then the Dodgers may win this trade. Unless Price goes down. That’s the only risk the Red Sox are taking in this deal. If Verdugo comes back healthy & productive, then the Red Sox did well to get what they could in this dump, as he’s under team control through 2024. That’s how the trade rates–meaning it’s wait & see.

The Dodgers also gave up RHP Kenta Maeda, a bargain starter who is locked in at $3.125M per year for the next four seasons, to the Twins for RHP Brusdar Graterol (MLB Pipeline’s No. 83 prospect), who was also sent to the Red Sox.

The Dodgers then sent RF Joc Pederson to the LA Angels, along with OF prospect Andy Pages, for young 2B Luis Rengifo who is still pre-arbitration. This makes room for Mookie Betts in the Dodgers outfield with Cody Bellinger & AJ Pollock.

The problem with these deals from the Dodgers perspective is that it makes them older in the outfield, as compared to Pederson, Bellinger & Verdugo. Plus, the extra productivity they get from Mookie Betts only lasts one season. But the real problem is that AJ Pollock is replacement level, and needed to be dumped. Instead he’s now being made an Opening Day starter for the Dodgers.

When that all washes out, this isn’t as much improvement as one would expect from getting a MVP-type player in Betts. In short, the Dodgers gave up too much to an organization that had no choice but to dump salary. They also took on too much risk in David Price for three years.

The Red Sox accomplished their goal of getting under the Competitive Balance Threshold (CBT) by dumping Mookie Betts & RHP David Price. Reports are the Red Sox will eat around half of the $96M Price is owed over his next three season, and all that money will count towards Boston’s CBT.

So the Dodgers get age-34 David Price, with all his elbow calcifications and other wear & tear. The Dodgers wanted to make a splash, and they did. But does it really help? Once again, time will tell. It’s questionable, for sure.

The other Mookie Betts suitor this winter was the San Diego Padres, who were reportedly engaged with Boston until the end. Padres had no interest in Price. A few proposals the Red Sox were floating through the media were as follows: 1) Padres get Mookie Betts; Red Sox get: C Luis Campusano (MLB’s No. 50 prospect), OF Taylor Trammell (MLB’s No. 57 prospect), OF Josh Naylor, LHP Joey Lucchesi, OF Wil Myers & cash. It was the Padres dumping Wil ‘WAR nil” Myers that made this deal untenable for the Red Sox.

Another rumored trade option was Mookie Betts (& cash) for: C Luis Campusano, OF Manuel Margot & LHP Joey Lucchesi. The problem there was the Padres being asked to give up too much cost-controlled talent for one year of Mookie Betts. Padres GM AJ Preller wisely refused both these scenarios. It’s catching prospect Luis Campusano that everyone wanted from the Padres this winter, after Preller declared top prospects MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patiño & CJ Abrams untouchable.

Sometimes there comes a point where you have to let go of a deal you’ve worked on for a very long time. This is what happened to AJ Preller. He wanted Betts, but more importantly he wanted to dump OF/1B Wil Myers. But that doesn’t mean giving away the farm, and that’s what the Red Sox were demanding. Remember, it’s the Red Sox who had to make a deal. They needed to dump to get under the CBT.

The Dodgers got their superstar for one season, and the Red Sox are now reset on the CBT, so they can go crazy again with payroll next year. Padres GM AJ Preller wanted Mookie Betts, but never lost sight of what was more important. He needs to dump Wil Myers, and therefore has to hold onto enough tradeable talent to make that happen.

If Preller trades for Betts to dump Myers on Red Sox terms, he empties his pool of young talent. That’s not worth one season of superstar production in RF for the Padres. It’s tough to walk away when one is so close, but it’s better than making a bad deal. It’s easier just to bench Wil Myers, and look for another deal. That’s what the 26th man on a roster can be used for now.

Since the Dodgers are in the same division with the Padres, these trades have major NL West ramifications. The Dodgers are again the clear favorite, but they’ve shortened their window of contention with this deal, and added major injury risk in David Price. If they don’t win a World Series in 2020, or if Price needs major surgery, then this deal busted and that’s a tough position to put your franchise in as a GM.

That’s why I don’t like this deal for the Dodgers, but love it as a Padres fan. The Dodgers were already top dogs in the  NL, and didn’t need to take this gamble. They just needed to make the right deal at the July 31 deadline. Andrew Friedman thinks they need help now. Mookie Betts is nice for this season, but David Price is a huge roll of the dice. We’ll see in 2020, and beyond.

The Padres are still much improved this winter. They are at least 10-12 wins better with the moves AJ Preller has made. But the MLB establishment keeps denying Preller the big prize he needs to take the next step up in competitiveness– whether is Shohei Ohtani, Christian Yelich or Mookie Betts. Preller was in on all of these players when they were available, and was in a great position to obtain them all, but got none of them. It’s clear the Padres are expected to give up more than anybody else to get the same player, and AJ Preller doesn’t subscribe to that. That’s why Mookie Betts & David Price ended up with the Dodgers.

Thu 06 Feb 2020 03:00 PM EST

Like the Iowa caucus, this deal has yet to be finalized. Here’s why?

The Red Sox projected hard-throwing righty Brusdar Graterol to be a starter, but now that they’ve seen the Twins medical, they’ve adjusted their projections to him being a reliever. Therefore the Dodgers or Twins [!] have to kick in another prospect, or send money back to Boston. Otherwise the deal is off, and this includes the Dodgers-Angels swap.

This is what it’s like doing business with the Red Sox. Padres GM AJ Preller must be really happy he let it go. Catching prospect Luis Campusano is now untouchable, and the Dodgers have a mess on their hands– either way. I can only imagine what Twins & Angels management are thinking. They thought this was an easy deal for them. Now they’re stuck, while the Red Sox bitch about their return, after their main goal was accomplished in dumping Betts & Price and getting RF Alex Verdugo.

Once again with the Red Sox can’t stop whining, while insisting on cheating everyone. The sports media is in their pocket, so these errors in scouting & evaluation by the Red Sox become an excuse to rescind, or “adjust” a deal they had to make.  Fans are still waiting on their punishment from MLB for sign stealing in 2018. The Red Sox get away with all this, because they are baseball’s equivalent of Joe Biden in politics. Zombies propped up by unlimited cash & idealist nonsense

Here’s my Ken Rosenthal impression on “adjusting” the Mookie Betts-David Price dump. “In a deal of this magnitude, with a lot of pieces moving, there can be glitches. The Red Sox mis-valued a prospect they agreed on, and therefore expect someone else to pay for that mistake. This happens all the time in trades [with the Red Sox].”

What everyone involved (including MLB) needs to tell the Red Sox is: the deal is “as agreed-up,” no changes, otherwise the Red Sox keep Betts & Price. Then what are the Red Sox going to do about getting under the CBT? The organizations involved need to unite and call out this Red Sox media bluff, in order to put an end to these garbage tactics. We’ll see what happens…

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Super Bowl LIV notes

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I skipped the entire pregame programming, and watched the Ice Bowl (Packers-Cowboys: December 31, 1967), and then Super Bowl XI (Raiders-Vikings: January 9, 1977) on YouTube instead. I do this because: 1) I’d never seen the Ice Bowl, and viewing it offers historical perspective on the NFL; and 2) SB XI was the first one I watched, and I still remember a lot of the key plays upon review.

This is much different than going to a Super Bowl party, which is what most people do, but being a sportswriter means one has to take an alternate approach to big events. I tune-in to Super Bowl LIV just as SF kicker Robbie Gould is placing the ball on the tee for the opening kick-off. Perfect timing.

I’m not a gambler, but I am acutely aware that I’ve already missed a few important SB wagers. Heads or tails? Who will win the toss? I’ll have to look those up, if I ever need that info. That’s what you miss when you come late to a Super Bowl.

If you’ve been in Miami these past few weeks, enjoying the festivities as they say, then you can be excused for being late to the game, or missing it entirely– with all the parties, drugs & hookers going on. I know it’s difficult for some people to believe that the championship contest of such a violent ground acquisition game, whose point is to smash the opposition into submission, could be a bastion of hedonism & sexual exploitation, but it’s true.

I’ve never been to a Super Bowl, and have little desire to attend one. I generally keep the volume muted during any Joe Buck broadcast. Fox does that to you.

It was one of the better Super Bowl games. Back & forth, close to the end. That one big pass play (Mahomes to Hill) turned everything around in the 4th quarter. That’s what playmakers do, and that was the difference. Chiefs win 31-20.

I thought the 49ers were more physical, and did a good job imposing their will. But they could never pull away, and once they got behind late it was over, because that’s not who they are. Andy Reid is a great football coach. He had answers when his team was getting smashed in the mouth. His QB Patrick Mahomes delivered the big plays when it counted most.

That’s the game narrative, and it wasn’t too much of a surprise. It rarely is anymore, which says something. There were lots of concussions & other injuries that no one cares about. No controversial missed calls, blown plays, or wardrobe malfunctions– which everyone cares about. The Super Bowl is an annual carnival of madness & debauchery.

I watched a few seconds of halftime show headliners Jennifer Lopez & Shakira, and that was enough for me. I then switched back to the classic Columbo episode “Lady in Waiting” on ME TV. Susan Clark isn’t much of a villain, but it’s always great watching Richard Anderson get shot dead, and then seeing Leslie Nielsen play the boyfriend-caught-in-the-middle.

I did this for all the commercials too with the help of classic M*A*SH episodes and whatever else I could find. Way too much propaganda & virtue signaling at $5.8M per 30-second spot for my taste. I don’t see anything that I want. It’s as if so much fake money exists, that the propaganda & branding becomes more important than selling product. The commercials are all inane, overblown & unappealing. I skillfully missed them. One can get really good at that after 40-something Super Bowls.

Super Bowl hangover: Monday February 3, 2020 10:53 AM EST

Don Meredith was the Cowboys QB in the Ice Bowl. He was their original play-caller, and a party hearty 1960’s NFL star until he retired in 1969. Dandy Don then joined the Monday Night Football broadcast team in the 1970’s. As a color analyst he used to ramble on & say stupid stuff, which makes him comparable to Troy Aikman today.

Meredith was notoriously addicted to booze, pills & women– like so many others of his era. In retrospect, Meredith’s downward spiral can be seen as the reason the Cowboys lost the Ice Bowl to Bart Starr & the Green Bay Packers, as RB Dan Reeves threw the ball better than QB Don Meredith on that bitter cold day.

In the video linked at the top, we see decades later, Meredith still had excuses to blame others as to why the Cowboys lost twice to the Packers– before Super Bowls I & II. In many ways this mirrors the current Dallas QB situation with Dak Prescott, who is about to be franchise tagged by owner Jerry Jones. I don’t know his personal habits, but I do know Dak Prescott isn’t a very good NFL QB. But no matter, he will soon be paid as the “real deal” because he plays for the Dallas Cowboys.

I’ll finish up on the Cowboys by stating that their best QB ever was Roger Staubach, and their best QB to ever turn TV analyst is Tony Romo. Their best head coach was Jimmy Johnson, and their worst was Barry Switzer.

The NFL branded this past campaign as their 100th season with a marketing blitz we’ve never seen before. The NFL has so much history, that it’s easy to put together best-of lists, personal interviews & historical clips to legitimize the game. The NFL & ESPN are good at that. What they can’t hide is the horrible ugliness beneath all the glitz & glory. That’s the annual Super bowl hangover.

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The Mookie Betts salary dump

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First & foremost, Red Sox fans need to realize this is a salary dump coming, which they aren’t used to, but is necessary. Ownership has mandated the new GM get under the Competitive Balance Threshold (CBT). The projected CBT in 2020 MLB is estimated to be just under $228M by Cot’s Contracts. Right now the Boston Red Sox have $236M allocated for 2020. Once players report to camp, the payroll checks start going out, so the Sox need to dump soon.

Here’s another rule in MLB trading. When you dump something, the other side gets to do the same. There’s no way Los Angeles Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman gives up young OF Alex Verdugo for one season of Mookie Betts at $27 million. If the Red Sox eat contract to sweeten the deal, then they defeat the purpose of the dump. The other top Dodgers prospects are too steep a price too, so it’s second tier prospects and no MLB players in return concerning any possible deal for Betts to LA. I don’t see it happening.

Zero interest in LHP David Price by the Padres, Dodgers (and everyone else), since it was reported he has calcifications in his left elbow around his Tommy John ligament. Red Sox will eat all the $96 million remaining on that deal, as well as the rest of their overpaid veterans– Sale, Eovaldi & Pedroia. GM’s would have to be talking Devers or Bogaerts to get significant prospect value in return, so no way, right?

This is about the Red Sox taking Padres 1B/OF Wil Myers and doing something with him. Myers could be worth something, but he needs a change of scenery and the discipline of a winning organization like the Red Sox. I say (as a fan) it’s a perfect fit. It’s the only way the Red Sox can get at the Padres young talent, and it’ll be nothing close to their best. That’s what happens when you put yourself in a jam by spending too much, year after year. Eventually you have to take your medicine, and the Padres are there as the only real suitors– I believe.

This burns Red Sox Nation who have hated on the lowly San Diego Padres since “undisclosed anti-inflammatories” in 2016. Ironically, Drew Pomeranz is now back with the Padres– as a reliever. The Red Sox need to get creative with Wil Myers, and find ways to extract value since they’re gonna be stuck with him, the same way the Padres have done/are doing with Pomeranz & so many others.

It sucks for fans when their franchise has to dump their best player one season before free agency. It used to be only the Marlins did stuff like that, but times have caught up to everybody. Give Padres GM AJ Preller credit for being ready to deal when the Red Sox were most desperate. Preller’s got the best available young talent and the deepest pool, so everybody wants to make a deal with him. That’s what ultimately gets this done, I say.

The Dodgers rumors & scenarios are to create a stalking horse in order to gain the Red Sox leverage in negotiations. Padres fans & management have seen this familiar media game, and understand they have to deal with big-time east coast bias here. Those are all the factors in play. I outlined much of this back in December.

This piece was published as the Mookie Betts trade rumors have reached a fever pitch, so we’ll see what happens in the coming days. Most in the industry now feel it is inevitable, because Red Sox ownership has put a gun to their new GM’s head, and this has to be done for a better franchise future. If it’s “no deal” then it was the Wil Myers’ money (and thus his valuation) which was the sticking point.

Apparently at this point, the Red Sox are willing to take on $30M of Myers remaining $68M owed, with only $4M/year counting against the all-important CBT, due to his average annual contract value of $13.8M. The Padres are pushing towards $45M, which means the Red Sox would pay $15M per year on Myers, with only $9M per counting against the CBT for the next 3 years. That’s what the Red Sox have to take on, to get prospects & young talent, for one season of Mookie Betts at $27M. This is a fascinating baseball deal going down, or at least being seriously discussed.

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Prognosticating Collapse

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What’s difficult for most ordinary people to realize is that if they have a few thousand dollars on hand, with no debt of any kind, then they are worth more than any major bank. JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, BOA, et al, are living off never-ending, cheap money from the Fed. Whatever their “stock market value” is, it’s dwarfed by at least 2-3 times that amount in debt– which they can never repay. Hence they are zombies. This situation applies to most household, corporate & all national debt. That is the crux of this impending financial crisis.

These banks, stock markets & hedge fund investors hold extravagant claims to assets that are 99+% worthless. These are all toxic assets that will all go to zero when the next crash hits. It’s called a Ponzi scheme. Central banks all around the world have this same policy, so no nation will be spared. The capitalist system is about to implode upon itself in every epicenter, in a mountain of bad debt fueled by rampant corruption condoned by the entire global establishment.

This isn’t going to be your regular periodic crash, like in 1987, 1998, 2000, or even 2007-08 which was the biggest shock wave since 1929. This next collapse of corruption is going to call into question the viability of the entire capitalist system on Facebook. It’s going to take riot police & military troops to keep hungry workers from their bank savings. The only way a government can stop people from posting on social media is to shut down the internet. That will anger people, for sure.

This show of force will be deemed necessary for “national security,” as the banks are insolvent, so a military-police state will be needed to maintain “law & order.” If you are not among the elite class, then this will be your fate. ATM’s will not give you cash. and the bank deposits will be inaccessible. “How am I supposed to live?” you may ask. The answer is that you aren’t.

This is class war in the death-throes of capitalism. Through the internet & social media, the youth & workers of the world have been exchanging ideas for over a decade, since the crash of 2007-08. These lessons have been learned & absorbed by a great many.

For the masses, it’s about leadership, in terms of having a vision for the future of humanity along with everything else on this planet. Leadership needs to be revolutionary, with a scientific program for equality & peace. Karl Marx gave civilization that program when he published The Communist Manifesto in 1848, a year of revolution in Europe.

Socialism is best expressed in our modern world in the writings of Leon Trotsky, who should be considered the last classical Marxist; and today through the International Committee of the Fourth International, which publishes the World Socialist Web Site. Trotsky founded the 4th International in 1938, two years before he was assassinated by an agent of Stalin, so this party has a long & impressive political history.

Political leadership is groomed by reading the WSWS, and adopting their line. Opportunities for polemics are plenty, but they are in areas of subjectivity such as opinions on art, and analysis of profound new ideas. Predicting future events by using Marxism & its dialectical method is an invaluable form of leadership that must be cultivated among the working masses.

The revolution of the future needs to be leaderless. When great & courageous individuals become elevated to supreme leader of a movement, they can easily be neutralized by any deep state conspiracy. Think Malcolm X, MLK or John Lennon, who were all assassinated. Great leaders of today don’t seek cult followings & celebrity status, they seek to be understood & influential.

Great leaders are the best listeners & observers. They see & hear things others miss, because they make it a point to be aware of their surroundings. This is sound leadership, because it compliments the survival instinct. We can’t continue to be at war with our planet, and expect to survive as a species. Leaders must understand & weigh all positions.

The root idea of socialism is that leadership is shared. This will allow the best in any field to rise to the top, since everyone will have access. This idea is abhorrent to every capitalist, who prefer monopoly, mass slavery, world war & annihilation– to socialism.

This is obviously sociopathic “thinking,” which is why Donald J. Trump is now the US President who has been given unlimited governmental authority to wage war on socialists. That’s what economic inequality, internet censorship, and war on immigrants while inciting neo-Nazi violence is all about– it’s the political strategy of fascists.

The objective of socialists since Trump was handed the US Presidency on November 8, 2016 is to discredit fascism & the deep state– in order to prevent a world war. It’s over three years, and humanity has now been perilously driven to the brink of world war by these madmen & madwomen.

But the truth is there is no mass support for any of these lunatic semi-corpses anymore. They are ready to crumble, and will, as soon as their supply of free money, media monopoly & military obedience finally fails them as a class.

If there is an election this November, Trump will get less votes this time, because he no longer fools so many people. The situation for most is getting worse, while Trump the conman keeps making speeches on how things are better than ever. That’s the way it is for billionaires.

For the Democrats  it’s their primary season, as Iowa is finally two weeks away, with billions already spent on 2020. Among young, left-leaning voters, Tulsi Gabbard was by far the most popular early candidate, especially after she embarrassed #MeToo & BLM party favorite Kamala Harris as shown here.

Gabbard has been a target of Hillary Clinton, who refers to the congresswoman from Hawaii as a “Russian asset” in the media. We’re talking about a left-leaning, CIA Democrat in Tulsi Gabbard. She has been neutralized at this point, fundraising-wise, but now Bernie Sanders has regained the top spot in many Democratic polls. This deeply concerns the Clinton’s, Barack Obama, John Kerry, and the rest of the deep state.

At this point, any expression of any impulse to the left is dealt with hysterically through the corporate media. Denunciations, censorship & blacklisting are the methods. Hence the term “fake news,” which didn’t exist ten years ago, but is understood by everyone with a functioning brain today.

Serious political discussions need to be ongoing for as long as possible, with the realization that the deep state may eventually block internet access to the masses. This coordinated shutdown of essential services has been rehearsed over & over during “natural disasters” such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods & fires.

The ruling establishment has its hands on all the levers of power, and a playbook from which it never veers. This makes them powerful, but predicable. When you know what the ultra-rich will do in every crisis, then you can be ready with a revolutionary strategy to defeat them. It’s up to the yearning masses to consider all this, and be ready to act when the time comes.

The #1 rule in bourgeois politics is: no socialism. Only Trump is allowed to say that, because he’s a fascist, which is acceptable. Democrats prefer to hide that primary motto, under the guise of pseudo-politics such as feminism & black racialism, which support elite members of those demographics, under the tired lies of class discrimination & social inequality.

Both parties double-down on their reactionary ideologies, because they have no other choice. As the absurdity of their policies became more apparent, their social support erodes even further. Kids don’t believe in politicians anymore, like they used to. There’s too much information, and access to it, which proves them liars. Millennials are smart like that.

Conclusion: These are the outlines of the coming social revolution. The wildfires in Australia and everywhere else will never be contained under capitalism, and that is now apparent on a mass scale. Humanity has reached it’s tipping point, where business-as-usual is about to come to an end. There is too much want & awareness, combined with too much excess & hypocrisy, for things to continue as before.

The deep state can’t behead 21st-century socialist leadership, because it’s now grown to a point where so many advanced workers & youth have become learned & class-conscious that leadership will be able to nurture & replenish itself from within. Socialized leadership for permanent revolution.

Julian Assange is an example of this process, as he sits in Belsmarsh prison outside of London, awaiting a rigged extradition trial. Assange is a courageous whistle-blowing journalist who has been kidnapped & tortured by the US & UK governments & deep states. But even if he dies in prison, WikiLeaks will live on. The point is to get Julian Assange out alive, which protects ALL journalists & whistle-blowers.

The coming Julian Assange trial portends this revolution. While the courts of law are rigged, the court of public opinion is squarely behind Assange & freedom of the press. This up-coming show trial could be the spark that ignites this coming socialist revolution. The ruling establishments fear this, while revolutionaries are preparing for it.

The reason capitalism must collapse and be revolutionized into socialism is because it’s an idea whose time has come. There is no amount of fake media, authoritative coercion & physical violence that can stop an idea whose time has come. That is a fundamental truth of socialism.

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Forecasting professional tennis

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Preface– posted 12-24-2019 on my Facebook page: Australia needs to get their wildfires under control, otherwise there isn’t going to be an event in Sydney. Same for the Aussie Open which follows in Melbourne.

Defending Aussie Open champion & unofficial ATP spokesperson for the players, Novak Djokovic, has voiced concerns about the impact of these wildfires on the tennis season-opening major, saying organizers may have to consider delaying the tournament if conditions around Melbourne deteriorate further, as player health becomes the primary concern. The wildfires have increased the temperatures to well over 40 degrees Celsius in Sydney & Melbourne, creating an oven-like environment across the continent, choked with toxic fumes.

The reply by tournament organizers who are beholden to the sponsors & networks is, “We have three roofed-stadiums and eight indoor courts at Melbourne Park. In the unlikely [!] case of extreme smoke conditions, the roofs will be closed on the three stadium courts and play will continue in their air-conditioned and air-filtered environment. #AusOpen”

As if this omnipresent smoke doesn’t filter indoors where the rich & famous are. That’s how elites view global warming. What about when the players & fans leave the court & go outside? Where do they stay that isn’t unhealthy?

There are 128 men & 128 women competing in singles in this major, meaning there are 254 matches to be played in total, over two weeks. Then there are all the doubles & mixed doubles matches, so we can clearly see through all the smoke & mirrors from the media that the Australian Open is logistically impossible with only 11 courts available,

This assumes these 11 courts will be playable, which they probably won’t be, due to the poor air quality. This sports analogy is a microcosm of the problem, in the refusal of elites to see facts as they are, while trying to carry on with business as usual.

After the Australian Open, the men’s & women’s tennis tour moves to North America, with Indian Wells, CA, and to a lesser extent Miami, FL being the key events. Located approximately equidistant south of Los Angeles & north of San Diego, Indian Wells is a west coast rock star event, located on a resort between the San Bernadino National Forest & Joshua Tree National Park. It’s hard to say what the conditions for tennis will be at Indian Wells from Monday, March 9 to Sunday, March 22, but here’s the California wildfire fire map as of 10-30-19:

Springtime isn’t wildfire season in California (but then again is wasn’t wildfire season when Australia broke out in flames), so the focus of the BNP Paribas Open will be mostly on the silicon valley billionaires schmoozing with the celebrity athletes, making new connections, and learning to see eye-to-eye with each other. Very important off-the-court stuff.

Many of the top ATP & WTA players skip the Miami Open, the final hardcourt event before the clay-court season begins in Europe. Women’s tennis star Serena Williams now literally owns this venue & event, with her financial stake. She’s from the Miami area, and has won this event more any any other player.

Serena Williams is a polarizing figure in professional sports, and many top players who have bypassed this event in the past, have even more reason to do so again, so don’t expect Maria Sharapova to attend.

By being black & female, Serena Williams automatically checks boxes for those with a political agenda, such as the Black Lives Matter or #MeToo campaigns. These were/are deep state Democrat concoctions, and Serena Williams has profited handsomely as a representative. Her TUE use, along with her sister Venus’, is never questioned, or even brought up in the official corporate media, who are in lockstep with all this.

There is SOOOO much money to be made by just obeying the rules of the puppet-masters. Top professional athletes are paid for two reasons: 1) they are the best, and 2) they obey the rules of the game. If you get out of line, you become Colin Kaepernick. In Hollywood, you become Kevin Spacey. In journalism, you become Julian Assange.

Looking ahead to conditions for the upcoming clay court season, I Google searched “European wildfire map,” but nothing recent came up– probably due to algorithms. Then I clicked under People also ask: How many wildfires in the world right now?

Most recent data is 2017: “In 2017, there were 71,499 wildfires, compared to 65,575 wildfires in the same period in 2016, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. About 10 million acres were burned in the 2017 period, compared with 5.4 million in 2016.

And for comparison, “As of one day ago, about 12.35 million acres of land have burned across Australia, according to the Associated Press.”

The clay court tennis season culminates with the French Open in Paris, France, running from Sunday, May 24, 2020 – Sunday, June 7. By this time the movement des gilets jaunes (yellow vests) will be over 18 months in existence, and growing stronger. At this point, this story is virtually censored in all the western media outlets, who never wanted to report it in the first place. The is a leaderless movement of the working people, against the Ancien Régime of capitalism.

The French workers are demanding the overthrow of a despised representative of the elite, Emmanuel Macron. The government response has been media blacklisting & censorship, negative interest rates & money printing for the rich, and massive build-up of the intelligence & police state apparatus– to be used against the population. It’s very difficult to prognosticate what will be the precise conditions at Roland Garros 2020, but it promises to be a fevered environment for sure.

After clay, it’s grass and a quick turn-around to Wimbledon. The French Open lets the players flash their fashion style, especially the women. But Wimbledon is located in London, England, and is all white & always will be.

This traditionally reserved dress code will not be able to cover over political tensions in the UK, which is now being hurled into a hard Brexit by new conservative PM Boris Johnson, a strong Donald Trump ally. Brexit (UK leaving the EU) carries catastrophic & revolutionary consequences.

Fascists such as Trump & Boris will do anything to stay in power, such as keeping courageous whistle-blowing journalist Julian Assange (pic above) in Belsmarsh prison until he’s killed. The Julian Assange rendition hearing is scheduled for February 2020 in London, but the US State Department now seems hesitant to stick to their requested date.

Julian Assange is being slowly murdered in prison, through every means of torture devised by the CIA & MI6, so their play is now to stall for more time. As of this publication, Assange is being heavily sedated, without his consent, or that of his attorney and/or physician.

The deep state mafia dons prefer another Jeffery Epstein “suicide” event, versus facing an open trial, even when the defendant has been deprived of every right to a fair defense. If alive, Julian Assange will win in court, due to massive popular support.

Everyone knows how this sham goes, so it’s indefensible when out in the open. It’s the court of public opinion that matters most, and that’s the one domain the deep state always loses in. No one cheers the deep state, except fanatical patriots & paid representatives.

It’s hard to say if this trial will even be held, and what the status of Julian Assange will be when Wimbledon unfolds from Monday, June 29, – Sunday, July 12. By then, many of these questions will answered, and many new questions will be raised, demanding more answers. All this is literally clouding my ability to prognostic if Rafa will win a 13th French Open, or if Djoker will win another Wimbledon. It doesn’t seem to matter much anymore. I believe many of the players realize this too.

After Wimbledon it’s back the the US, for the remainder of the hard court season, culminating on Monday, August 24 – Sunday, September 13 with the US Open at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York, NY. There will be a lot of things going on in the Big Apple around this time.

Election 2020 will be scheduled to kick into the homestretch, with a multi-billion dollar blitz campaign of advertising, like you ain’t never seen before, which will teach us nothing. This nauseating & never-ending spectacle can only be stopped by a workers revolution which expropriates the capitalists.

The monetary policy of printing free money for the rich goes on at the Federal Reserve, located in Manhattan. It’s hard to say exactly when the financial crash of 2020 will hit, because there is so much manipulation of the tens & hundreds of trillions of dollars in worthless assets, and it is completely opaque to outsiders. But it doesn’t take a weatherman to know which way the winds blows, and any Econ 101 student knows what a Ponzi scheme is, so it’s only a matter of when, not if, in 2020.

It’s politics in the US that is bringing this to a head. With 2020 being a presidential election year, campaigning already began over six months ago. The early returns look awful, with Joe Biden being the choice of deep sate Democrats. This makes it a nail-biter with Trump in November, in which case Trump wins again.

If they ran pseudo-socialist candidate Bernie Sanders as their nominee, the Democrats would sweep the White House, senate & congressional races– but they don’t want that. The Democrats have shifted so far to the right, as to be indistinguishable from conservative Republicans– meaning they are all fascists. The Dems prefer the Reps to do the uncomfortable dirty work of illegalizing immigration & inciting racial hatred.

The final tennis major of the 2020 season, the US Open, will be unusually difficult to prognosticate due to all this. Will Naomi Osaka put it all together and become the next dominant force in women’s tennis? Can Sloane Stephens regain her form? Does Angelique Kerber still have it? Can Petra Kvitova finally capture another major? I gaze at this photo below, and wonder.

Or will we be in the midst of an unprecedented global economic crash & political crisis which leaves humanity with two options: socialist revolution or World War? It’s really hard to know.

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David Stern: Master of Puppets

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Post-publication preface: On Friday, January 3, it was announced that NBA players & referees will wear black bands on their uniforms for the rest of the season to honor David Stern. This symbolism keeps all the actors ethereally tethered to that great basketball commissioner in the sky.

The puppet master of the NBA just passed away yesterday from a brain hemorrhage at age 77. David Stern was the manipulator responsible for bring Patrick Ewing to the NY Knicks; allowing Shaquille O’Neal to travel & brutalize opponents at will for a decade; and always had Joey Crawford ready to fix a crucial game of a play-off series– to make sure the “right” team won. David Stern led the NBA to new financial heights with a leadership style comparable to a mafia don.

I’m the only one writing this in the media, but I’m not crazy. The near-universal praise for David Stern posthumously is from those players, coaches & sportswriters who were taken into his confidence, and always knew how to obey & get in line when “requested” it.

Let’s start with what you know about basketball. Here’s a quick quiz to prove. Who’s the greatest basketball player ever?  The correct answer is Wilt Chamberlain– the most dominant player ever: 30 points, 23 rebounds & 10+ blocks per game for his career. Blocks weren’t kept as a NBA stat until after Chamberlain retired, but 10-12 blocks per game is a fair estimate for his career. Those are silly numbers, and no one else is comparable. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is probably the second greatest basketball player ever (it’s all about the big man in hoops), and he was dominated by Wilt Chamberlain in their few match-ups in the 1970’s.

Wilt didn’t win championships like Bill Russell, because the Boston Celtics were an elite franchise with Red Auerbach as coach & GM, the best of his era, and basketball is a team game. The Big Dipper played on lesser teams, until he joined the LA Lakers for the final 5 seasons of his 14-year NBA career. Chamberlain never fouled out of a NBA game, which is impossible for anyone else.

Wilt Chamberlain still holds over 90 NBA records, 45 years after retiring. He was a Harlem Globetrotter before joining the Philadelphia Warriors in 1959, and he had handles. Wilt Chamberlain led the league in assists, while also leading in scoring & rebounding– another impossible feat accomplished only by The Record Book.

The rule for opponents was, “Don’t get him mad.” If you tried to disrespect, trash-talk, cheat or trip-up Wilt Chamberlain, then you unleashed the beast– which no one could handle. Chamberlain then goes for 60 points, 40 rebounds & 25 blocked shots; which means he totally dominates the game and his team wins 98-57. That happened a few times, and opponents afterwards humbly apologized & promised to never disrespect him again.

If they were sincere & Chamberlain believed them, then he would go back to 30 points, 23 boards & 10 blocks next game, and everybody was happy. Just let him do his thing and prove to everybody that he’s the best, and he’ll let you play too. That was Wilt Chamberlain. There’s never been another player like that, and there never will be. If you didn’t know this already, then you REALLY need to listen to me on what I’m saying about David Stern, because you don’t know hoops.

The rise of the NBA came about because of Magic Johnson & Larry Bird entering the league in 1979-80, and then Michael Jordan’s arrival in 1984. The original 1992 Dream Team was the NBA’s zenith era, as far as quality of play & level of competitiveness. When Shaq bolted from Orlando to LA to join Kobe, and Phil Jackson was brought in to manage them in the late-1990’s, the NBA became a different league.

In this “new school” era, high school players declared themselves eligible for the NBA draft after their senior year. The money had gotten so big, that you had to do this if you were Kevin Garnett, LeBron James or Dwight Howard. The “one & done” NCAA standout becomes commonplace after David Stern institutes an age requirement for the NBA, ending the era of high school players from entering the draft.

Shooting percentages, offensive efficiency, and ratings have all declined since Micheal Jordan retired from the Chicago Bulls after winning their 6th NBA title in 1998. The great players of his era had all retired, or were about to, and the new school game was here to stay. New school means a different attitude, which allows young players who haven’t earned the respect of their peers to act like prima donnas, because they are paid like superstars and have endorsements on television. The term “coach killer” enters NBA lexicon.

In this new era, players are now paid on potential, because all the existing talent has been scooped up. Anything young with basketball potential attracts everyone’s attention, and that’s when the bidding war starts. The latest incarnation of this phenomenon is Zion Williamson, the “one-and-done” Duke Blue Devil, who became the #1 pick last June. He hurt himself early, and still hasn’t made his NBA debut with the New Orleans Pelicans. His contract pays him $9,757,440 for this season, and it’s considered a bargain in the industry. This is the progress David Stern brought.

So the questions are: Is the NBA better because of David Stern? Was Stern the “smartest man in the room,” or a manipulative master of puppets? How much damage did he do to the game from an integrity standpoint? These questions were never seriously raised when he was commissioner, as he squelched all NBA dissent with a wry smile to the media & an iron fist behind closed doors.

This was a powerful, well-connected individual, who acted the role of mafia don, because that’s what he was. The NBA was under his commissionership from 1984 to 2014, and he ruled absolutely. He was there for the greatest explosion in popularity in league history, which was due to its great stars– primarily Michael Jordan, and the advances in technology such as cable & satellite TV– and then the internet. That’s the real reason for the massive increases in revenue for the NBA.

David Stern was the tough-minded businessman who always took the considerations of the owners, sponsors & networks as primary. The players, coaches, & fans came to be treated as tools for manipulation to extract more money.

Many new arenas were built (& re-built) in the David Stern era. Each time the seats became more costly. For those who couldn’t afford front row on the floor, they became more distant & cramped. The games got noisier during time-outs, at halftime, and even during the game. The David Stern approach was the classic business theory of catering to the “casual fan,” which always diminishes the game.

Either you like basketball, and want to see a NBA game, or you aren’t interested. Today, there are enough fans to fill any arena, but if the product has been diluted & degraded by NBA greed & malfeasance, then fans will turn elsewhere– as they have choices. Appealing to the “casual fan” who is more interested in his/her cell phone, than the action on the floor, while delivering an inferior & boring product doesn’t help grow the game.

This is what happened at the end of David Stern’s reign, and it defines many of the NBA franchises today. There are only 4-5 teams that can win a championship in any given season. Since the break-up of Shaq & Kobe in LA, stars group together to form super-teams which can make a run at multiple titles. It was LeBron James going to Miami, then Kevin Durant to Golden State. Everyone else is fodder.

In all of the official sportswriters obituaries, there is no mention of NBA betting scandals & rigged officiating in the playoffs. The Kings/Lakers series in 2002 was the most blatant fix in NBA history– the point where many “old school” basketball fans quit watching. Ridiculous.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMtUutkGgDA

The LA Lakers winning titles means better ratings, and this is a large part of how league revenue grew so much under David Stern’s watch. NBA players & coaches can’t criticize the officiating without getting huge fines. This is the ugly, unreported legacy of David Stern as NBA commissioner. The money got bigger than ever, while the game became unwatchable due to this corruption. ESPN and all the rest looked the other way, and took their cut.

When it comes to true power, it’s the one pulling the strings that matters. Despite the greatness of every NBA superstar from Bird, Magic & Michael to Shaq, Kobe & LeBron; all of them were/are puppets compared to David Stern. It’s the one manipulating the action, deciding which match-ups you will see, and ultimately who wins– that has the the power.

As a society we are fascinated by powerful people, but that doesn’t mean they deserve blind admiration. The fake corporate media censors what you read & hear about the ugly underbelly of the NBA, because its “caretakers” know the depth of this cynicism & corruption. It’s considered “bad for the game” to discuss any of this openly & honestly, because ratings may go down even further. Little-to-no consideration is given to open admission of guilt & sin, allowing the game to heal itself and restore its integrity. These ideas were always an anathema to David Stern & his sycophants.

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Defining Terms

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Bourgeois politics can be confusing, for sure. So here’s a handy Marxist working dictionary of what you need to know when everything crashes.

“Modern Monetary Theory” is unlimited money for the rich, dressed up in post-modernist gobble-de-gook. In short, it’s monopoly capitalism. Capitalism is how a billionaire class can develop, by extracting all the wealth of labor from the workers, and congealing it into money. Marxism is a scientific approach to political economy, with the intent of educating & uniting the global working class in revolution, to overthrow capitalism & establish socialism. Socialism is defined as social equality for all– globally & permanently.

When philistine haters attempt to slander socialism, they usually equate it with Stalinism, which is bureaucratic rule over a state-planned economy. Russian workers & peasants in the army, led by the Bolsheviks of Lenin & Trotsky, overthrew the Tsar & reformists in 1917, and state planning was then implemented. When Lenin eventually died from ill health, due to gunshot wounds he received in an assassination attempt by a liberal party loyalist, there was an ideological struggle for power between Trotsky & Stalin.

Stalin was an unexceptional old Bolshevik bureaucrat, who was kept in the background during the October Revolution because of his centrist tendencies which were correctly considered counter-revolutionary by Lenin & Trotsky. After Lenin’s debilitating strokes, and then final death in January 1924, Stalin stepped forward and defined his theory of “socialism in one country” to attack Trotsky and usurp power for himself, which he eventually did as Trotsky was exiled by 1929.

Stalin played the political game well, and laid many traps for his friends & enemies, eventually liquidating them all. Trotsky himself was one of the last old Bolsheviks to be murdered by Stalin’s agents, in August, 1940 in Mexico City, just as World War II broke out. Trotsky fought mostly with his pen, which is why he remains so powerful a figure in modern politics. Trotskyism is the only genuine expression of revolutionary socialism in the world today, represented by the ICFI and their publishing organ, the World Socialist Web Site.

Stalinism and all of its crimes are directly comparable to Adolf Hitler and his National Socialist party, better known as the Nazis. Nationalism & socialism are diametric opposites in politics. That’s because genuine socialism (Trotskyism) is international in perspective. Nationalism is about racism, religious chauvinism & patriotism, which define they worst instincts of humanity in their ignorance, selfishness & lack of democratic input.

Diametric & dialectic are similar words. The latter is the philosophy of Marxism, which replaces religion and all other forms of mysticism, with the science of opposites & revolution known as dialectics. When water freezes or turns to steam, there are qualitative shifts in the properties of water. What happens to water at 0 & 100 Celsius, is unlike anything in-between or beyond those temperatures. That’s a clear metaphor for dialectics, in that you have to stop thinking linearly and more dialectically, in times of revolutionary flux in order to understand what is happening.

When an army of millions of peasants led by a political opportunist, overthrows an ancient regime after a Second World War, and takes state power into it’s hands, that is called Maoism. When a band of peasants & guerrillas take state power into their hands in a banana republic, because it falls to them, that is called Castroism. When an anarchist leader proclaims, “Power comes from a gun barrel,” and then dies isolated in a third-world jungle, that is called Guevaraism.

The collapse of the Soviet Union from 1989-91 profoundly influenced US militarists, who saw it as an opportunity to reconquer the world. These are the bureaucrats, profiteers & warheads who planned 9/11, and engineered the bank bailouts after the financial crash of 2007-08. This is what is known as the deep state.

Our biggest political problem is the deep state, which is not acknowledged. “Thank God for the deep state” said ex-CIA Director John McLaughlin, to resounding audience approval on October 31, 2019. Up until then, “deep state” was another nutty conspiracy theory, pushed by kooks online such as yours truly. Now it’s vindicated, but still not discussed, except in the most general & glowingly patriotic terms.

The deep state is defined as any powerful institution which no one elects and holds power over US political economy. Every nation has a deep state these days. This institution acts independently of public oversight & democratic input. The Federal Reserve banking system is part of the deep state. So is the CIA, and the rest of the military-police apparatus. They will always lie & slander to hide their own guilt, and will never give up power peacefully. The deep state is the root of all evil under capitalism, and it must be dealt with decisively.

“Quantitative easing,” negative interest rates for big banks, and now the “repo market” intervention by the Fed & Treasury, are injections of newly printed money which has no backing, but is desperately needed to keep this “zombie economy” going. Zombie companies are defined as publicly traded corporations that can’t even pay the interest on their debt– which is massive & unpayable. At least 20% of DJIA & NASDAQ listings are zombies. This endless supply of free money keeps the stock market going up & up to new all-time highs, from which it will eventually crash.

Government is defined as a committee of the ruling class, so if you want social justice, then don’t look towards the two-party system bureaucrats for solutions. They put us in this mess in the first place. The solution in politics is so far beyond reform, that it makes Bernie Sanders look so much like the old windbag he actually is. Liberalism is dead, as it died with Barack Obama and all his vague promises of hope & change back in 2008. Then Hillary Clinton came out stillborn 2016, and the working masses got Russiagate & the #MeToo campaign in retribution for Donald Trump winning the Electoral College.

Journalists are defined as people who report the events of the world. The best ones do it honestly & with deep insight. Julian Assange is a journalist. People who persecute journalists for revealing the truth are fascists. Fascism comes in many forms, through the thuggish brutality personified by Donald Trump, or from the deep state, hidden spook, censorship version– agreed to by all the rest in the US two-party set-up. These are the “adults in the room” we are told by authoritative fake news sources.

Fake news is defined as CNN, MSNBC, Fox, Breitbart, ABC, CBS, NBC, et al. They are all owned by multi-national corporations, who push a pro-capitalist agenda in their interest. Social media including Facebook, Twitter, Google & YouTube is revolutionary in that everyone can now participate, but realize that it has also been tied into the deep state, which manipulates what you see, while selling your content to others without your knowledge. That’s called stealing, creeping, and abusing power. These entities will all become public utilities under socialism, with democratic control by users, which allows for maximum participation & innovation.

“Two-party strait-jacket” means Democrats & Republicans are two sides of the same coin– domestically & in foreign policy. They can’t exist without the other, and therefore are all in it together. Their mission in Washington is to enslave the working class, and rule the world through intimidation & military supremacy. This is pathological madness personified in capitalist politics.

Madness is defined as repeating the same mistakes over & over again, and expecting better results. This is the conundrum which no Ivory Tower, ideological apologist can solve or hide, no matter how eloquent they are in post-modernist sophistry. Capitalism is bankrupt, and must be overthrow dialectically, through the international working masses uniting under the banner of socialist revolution in permanence.

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MLB 2019 Winter Meetings Round-up

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Here’s the latest analysis on what’s going on in major league baseball this hot stove season.

MLB is pushing the new Red Sox GM to trade ace lefty David Price to the Angels, only they don’t have the prospects to make it happen. No way the Red Sox deal him to the Yankees. The only teams left with the prospects & payroll flexibility are in the NL– namely the Dodgers & Padres. One of these two teams will end up with David Price, if he’s dealt, which could happen this winter.

David Price is owed $32M/year for the final three seasons of his 7-year deal. The Red Sox need to get under the Luxury Tax threshold of $208M by dealing one of their high-payroll stars. Price is the pitcher everyone covets, and thus the easiest asset to deal. This is where having payroll flexibility and a good farm system pays off for contenders.

The Astros are also interested & able, but the Red Sox view them the same as the Yankees, a team in their league who is ahead of them. You can’t help them get better. Thus, David Price needs to be traded to the NL.

The Nationals just resigned ace RHP Stephen Strasburg, so they are done on starters. The Braves need a true ace to move beyond the Divisional round of the post-season, but do they have they the prospects & ownership approval for such a payroll increase? LHP Cole Hamels is probably not enough.

The Chicago Cubs maxed themselves on payroll with RHP Hu Darvish, and busted. The Milwaukee Brewers don’t have the budget for David Price. Neither have the prospects. The Cardinals are similar to the Giants: old, expensive & mediocre, so no one who is great & wants to win goes there.

In the NL West, the rebuilding Diamondbacks just dealt their ace Zack Greinke to the Astros last July, and aren’t in the market, even though they have the prospects. They may yet deal their best lefty starter Robbie Ray this winter. The Rockies are bloated with payroll, and still too many needs, with few prospects. Besides, pitchers never want to go there. I don’t know if David Price has a no-trade clause.

So it comes down to the Dodgers, who are looking for another ace to keep them ahead of the rest of the NL West; and the Padres who are looking to crash their party by establishing themselves as contenders in 2020. If AJ Preller & the Padres land David Price, they will have done that.

Remember that Dave Dombrowski was fired as Red Sox GM last summer. He was the one who made the Craig Kimbrel deal with Preller, for what turned out to be CF Manny Margot, and three other prospects who washed out, in what was hyped as a steal for the Padres at the time. Kimbrel gave the Red Sox everything he had, until his arm went dead in late 2018. Craig Kimbrel helped them win the World Series that year, which deserves respect & gratitude from every Red Sox fan. It was a fair trade in the end.

The other Dombrowski-Preller deal was the now infamous Drew Pomeranz-Anderson Espinoza deal. Many in the Red Sox Nation howled that Dombrowski had been “ripped off again by the Padres” when this deal was announced in summer 2016. A MLB/ESPN media lynch mob was formed to sanction AJ Preller, for “undisclosed anti-inflammatories” in Drew Pomeranz’s medical history with the Padres, as retribution.

AJ Preller even offered to rescind the deal, and take Drew Pomeranz back, but Dave Dombrowski refused, while the east coast media went into overdrive. This is why AJ Preller was suspended by MLB for a month in 2016. RHP prospect Anderson Espinoza never made it out of the minors, and is currently recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. The Red Sox won that trade too, yet many within the organization still complain.

The fact is, you can’t do business with liars & haters. That’s the Padres perspective. The final irony here is the Padres signing Drew Pomeranz to a 4-year $34M deal this winter, to be an ace set-up man. The only thing that makes David Price to the Padres a possibility now, was the removal of Dave Dombrowski as GM. There are still many in the Red Sox organization who harbor hate for the Padres, for making them look bad in how they have abused their clout with MLB.

The lowest point in the Padres-Red Sox relationship was the “Shohei Ohtani Affair” in which the Boston Red Sox used ESPN/MLB hatchet-man Buster Olney to openly tamper, in order to stop AJ Preller from getting Shohei Ohtani in free agency when he was posted from Japan. That’s how the most coveted Japanese two-way player ever ended up as an Los Angeles Angel.

These are the undercurrents of what’s going on in the David Price trade market. Ace lefties are rare birds, and it’s a better value to get them for 3 years, versus paying for 7-9 years in free agency. It cost teams about the same in average annual value, while limiting the long-term payroll commitment & risk. The Dodgers & Padres are all over this, you can be sure.

What’s going on this hot stove season is remarkable, which is why I’m commenting so extensively. It’s clear that teams are trending more towards being open & honest about their off-season plans. Unsurprisingly, honesty makes it easier for teams to accurately judge the market and make deals, whether it’s trades, free agency, or Rule 5 Draft selections. The 26-man roster creates new possibilities for all 30 teams.

As explained earlier, the good teams with strong farm systems are now making their moves at the Winter Meetings, because they are now clear of Rule 5 Draft considerations. The Nationals re-upped with Stephen Strasburg, and then the Yankee inked Gerrit Cole to a new record-breaking MLB 9/$324M deal a day later.

When each team better understands the other’s interests & position, then teams can reach a comfort level in dealing with each other. Conversely, when one is a arrogant, with more money than brains, then one doesn’t think about the other side when dealing SS Fernando Tatis, Jr for a cooked RHP James Shields. Or RHP Chris Paddack for closer Fernando Rodney.

In the past, many teams took a Red Auerbach (deceptive misdirection) approach to their off-season plans, which doesn’t work in a competitive & balanced league like MLB. That only insults the intelligence of the people you need to do business with in today’s world.

The Padres have been open about their intentions, and have followed through on them. They said they were going to trade players they felt had under-performed; and 2B Luis Urias, LHP Eric Lauer, RF Hunter Renfroe, and a few prospects are now gone.

The players they received in return are better, but more expensive & for shorter team control. Preller is winning deals, but he’s not ripping anyone off. Most of these deals look win-win to me, with teams lining up different needs. Preller is dealing from strength, which is his supply of young controllable MLB talent & interesting prospects.

Unloading OF/1B Wil Myers will be his final order of business before Spring Training. Wil Myers has gone from franchise player to clubhouse problem, and needs a change of scenery. The organization is frustrated with his lack of growth & make-up. He has tantalizing hot streaks, where you see the potential come through, then he falls into a funk for two months or gets hurt.

A rebuilding team may target Wil Myers as a buy-low candidate. The Padres will eat salary (3/$61M remaining) to move him. If they can’t deal him, he’ll likely be a utility player. That has value to the Padres, but is very expensive for their needs. That’s their situation, and AJ Preller hasn’t locked himself into anything. That’s how you fix a mistake, without making the bigger situation worse. Hard work, due diligence & patience.

Wil Myers turned 29 on December 10, and hit .239/.321/.418 in 155 games in 2019. His manager Andy Green was fired near season’s end, in a move meant to shake up the organization. It was the performance of Wil Myers and a few others that cost Andy Green his job. Andy Green was an excellent manager in his nearly 4 seasons with the Padres.

Green was put in impossible situations every year, with a weak roster & no depth. He held the Padres together in 2016, and again in 2017, when Preller traded everything he could to rebuild the system. It paid off for the organization, so it seems unfair that Andy Green isn’t a part of what is already a much better Padres roster. Andy Green certainly deserves another shot in MLB as a manager, with a roster that can win or an organization that requires patience.

Jayce Tingler is the new San Diego Padres skipper, following an established trend of young manager hires, which AJ Preller started when he hired Andy Green, after Bud Black was fired in mid-2015. Tingler is bilingual in Spanish, which is another trend you see in new MLB dugout skippers.

As mentioned, the organizations that are masking their intentions, are being left behind. I see the NY Mets as an example of this. They’ve spent so much time waffling back-and-forth on trading RHP Noah Syndergaard, finally stating after the World Series that he’s “off the market,” that they clearly had no “Plan B.” The Mets get a compensation pick from the Philadelphia Phillies for signing free agent RHP Zack Wheeler.

The Mets took forever to hire Carlos Beltran as their new manager, whom everyone loves, but he can only do so much with this roster. They aren’t making big splashes like they did last winter, after it blew up in their face. But they don’t seem to be hunting for mid-level free agent upgrades, or looking to make any serious trades either. They’re hoping for rebound years & better health from what they have.

A wish isn’t a plan. That’s my favorite Herman Edwards (NFL player/head coach/analyst) saying. The Mets have acquired platoon CF Jake Marsnick from the Astros for two prospects. Neither were on their Top 30 list, but they keep making these deals, and are running out of organizational depth. With all the holes they have on their roster, and no ownership commitment for a significant payroll increase, no MLB team is more caught in “no man’s land” than the New York Mets.

I’ve read more than a few articles on MLB’s site (& elsewhere) which cite an “un-named AL executive” and “un-named NL executive” in their analysis. I take this as Yankees GM Brian Cashman & Padres GM AJ Preller. Those are the two sharks running the MLB talent acquisition market this winter. These two teams made their intentions clear, and have followed through, and that sets the market.

Much of the top talent is now off the board, and that helps the free agent market move along. The lessons to players & agents is: when it’s your turn, don’t dick around. The market will make its best offer, and if you don’t take it, they will move on and leave you behind. Draft pick compensation matters, as free agents Mike Moustakis, Dallas Keuchel & Craig Kimbrel all learned the hard way.

The Rule 5 Draft will happen tomorrow morning, and there will be an update here. The Yankees were one team that needed to add 6-8 prospects to its 40 man roster to avoid them being taken in the Rule 5 Draft. That’s why they waited until the Winter Meetings to sign Gerrit Cole.

Among the Padres prospects left unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft were: Esteury Ruiz, Buddy Reed, Trevor Megill, Dauris Valdez and Michael Gettys. None are anything close to MLB ready, and are more like organizational depth, so selecting any one of these players means sacrificing a MLB roster spot for a season, for a long-shot.

With analytics and obsession over young talent, it’s harder to hit on this Rule 5 lottery than in the past. The point is that the San Diego Padres have the best farm system, and the New York Yankees are they deepest organization– and both left very little available.

The final storyline leaving the Winter Meetings is that if you haven’t helped yourself by now, it’s probably too late, as most of the top talent is already gone, as bargains are few in that market. After 3B Anthony Rendon signs, what’s left is second-tier talent– starting with LHP Madison Bumgarner. He’ll be the top QO free agent left, followed by 3B Josh Donaldson who declined Atlanta’s QO. Everyone needs pitching, and Josh Donaldson still puts up numbers, so they’ll both probably sign soon.

It’s OF Marcell Ozuna who may be the one frozen out this winter. The age-29 slugging outfielder declined his qualifying offer from the Cardinals. The Cards still want him back, but at less money. No one else seems to be interested. He’s too similar to Wil Myers, and thus not worth losing the draft pick to every other team outside of St. Louis. Padres GM AJ Preller’s desire to move Wil Myers dramatically affects the market for Marcell Ozuna and all other free agent sluggers.

The hottest markets are starting pitching, relief pitching, and then catching. Organizations now understand catching as a tandem, meaning there needs to be depth at that position. That’s why all the best catchers were quickly signed (or acquired in trade) as free agency opened. More importantly, catching is now understood to be an extension of the pitching staff, so defense really matters. Twenty-six man rosters in 2020 means some teams will go with three catchers.

Teams in need are looking for players that will give them 2+ WAR at a position in free agency. According to MLB’s 2019 metrics among position players: only LF Marcell Ozuna (age 29, 2.6 WAR); CF Brett Gardner (age 36, 3.5 WAR); RF’s Nicholas Castellanos (age 28, 2.8 WAR) & Kole Calhoun (age 32, 2.5 WAR); DH Edwin Encarnación (age 37, 2.5 WAR); 2B Eric Sogard (age 34, 2.6 WAR); and catcher Robinson Chirinos (age 36, 2.3 WAR) meet those qualifications. Note that most of them are old, so none of them will get lucrative long-term deal. Look for the younger players, with better futures to get the better free agent deals.

RHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (age 33, 4.8 WAR), LHP Madison Bumgarner (age 30, 3.2 WAR), and RHP Homer Bailey (age 34, 2.9 WAR) are the only free agent starting pitchers with a 2+ WAR in 2019. Lots of age & mileage on these arms, which is what makes them second-tier. Still, it’s pitching so it should move along, as long as egos don’t get out of control.

It’s when a Craig Kimbrel type of talent brings unrealistic expectations to the market, that things get messed up. Remember Kimbrel wanted 5/$85M or something crazy like that last year, when he was QO-tagged by the Red Sox, who didn’t want him back. After sitting out until the June Draft, and then signing with the Cubs, he was a disaster.

The Cubs re-upped with him at 3/$43M this winter, which doesn’t sound like a winning move for the Northsiders, but now we at least know what Craig Kimbrel is worth in free agency. The few known relievers who could help contenders were snatched up early, and what’s left is a crapshoot. That’s the second-tier reliever market.

No one in MLB wanted a repeat of last winter (or the winter before), where star players & their agents were holding up the market. It appears teams & free agent players/agents have come to an understanding on how the market is to work. This is the primary reason star players have moved much more quickly this hot stove season. It has been largely fan analysis & player push back on this, which has fueled this step forward.

Final Update: Wed 11 Dec 2019 11:35 PM EST

My timing is uncanny, as just after publishing on Wednesday ~6 PM EST, a flood of lower-tier free agent signings occurred as the Winter Meetings wrapped up in San Diego.

Dodgers have deal with righty reliever Blake Treinen (report): 1/$10M
Mets, Wacha agree to deal (source): MLB Network insider Joel Sherman reports Wacha will receive $3 million guaranteed with $7 million possible in incentives
Roark, Blue Jays agree to deal (source): 2/$24M
Crew has deal with KBO MVP Lindblom (source): 3/$9.125M for an age-32 starting RHP

Analysis: This is bullpen desperation for the Dodgers, and back-of-the-rotation rotation filler for the rest, with age-33 RHP Tanner Roark being the most obvious overpay by the Toronto Blue Jays– who are going nowhere. This is an example of the difference between trying to compete, and giving fans the illusion of trying to compete.

Later in the evening, it was reported by MLB that 3B Anthony Rendon agreed to a seven-year, $245 million deal with the Angels.

Analysis: The LA Angels needed to make a splash and improve themselves, and this helps. Unfortunately, they still have no pitching past Shohei Ohtani, who is coming off Tommy John surgery and will surely have innings limits. A six-man rotation is their plan, so they need at least two more quality starting pitchers after acquiring RHP Dylan Bundy from the Orioles.

Even better if they get three, because Dylan Bundy stinks. The problem is quality starters don’t exist in free agency anymore, as the Yanks & Nats ate them up. Look for the Halos to throw desperate money at big-name free agent pitchers, after they fail to land David Price. CF Mike Trout is still the best player in baseball, and he is worth the extension; but 1B/DH Albert Pujols is their franchise albatross since Josh Hamilton’s contract expired in 2017. OF Justin Upton ain’t no bargain either.

Final NL Winter Meeting Wrap-up: There have been a few head-scratchers already, none more than the Miami Marlins, who lost 105 games in 2019, acquiring 2B Jonathan Villar on December 2 from the Baltimore Orioles, after he was non-tendered due to his cost in arbitration, which will be ~$10M in 2020. This replaces 2B Starlin Castro who departs as a free agent, after being the lone MLB return in the Giancarlo Stanton salary dump to the Yankees.

Jonathan Villar is set to be a free agent after 2021, so he is an expensive rental which cost the last place Marlins a lefty pitching prospect. It won’t move them out of last place, and Villar can’t be flipped for more value, so I don’t understand what the Marlins are doing here and I’m not alone.

Righty rotation filler Jordan Yamamoto is the best player the Marlins received for MVP LF Christian Yelich to the Brewers. Top prospect in the deal CF Lewis Brinson is a bust. Twenty-four year old CF prospect Monte Harrison is a bust too. It’s also how quickly (& predictably) they busted which is very alarming to Fish fans. A bunch of nothing for Christian Yelich and his long, team friendly contract.

RHP Sandy Alcantra LHP & Zac Gallen are nice rotation pieces, as the Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis deal was by far their best trade of this teardown, their third or fourth firesale in franchise history going all the way back to 1993. Second baseman Dee Gordon was a salary dump to Seattle, and nothing materialized from the fringy prospects they acquired.

Catcher JT Realmuto was the last All-Star Derek Jeter & Mike Hill dealt, and he apparently netted a decent return from the Phillies. Catcher Jorge Alfaro is adequate and cost controllable, while prized young righty starter Sixto Sanchez is now a top-20 MLB pipeline prospect. The Phillies got an All-star catcher for a lot of years, so they already “won” this deal on their end. How Sixto Sanchez develops determines if the Marlins “win” their end of the deal, as everything else is now knowable. In summary, the Marlins gave away two MVP’s for nothing, and only acquired quality players in the Marcell Ozuna deal, and possibly the JT Realmuto deal.

The Cincinnati Reds keep making noise like they are players, when all they really have to be excited about is 3B Eugenio Suárez & young RHP Luis Castillo, whom they received from the Marlins for meatball pitcher Dan Strally in January 2017. Luis Castillo had previously been traded to the Padres for RHP Colin Rea in the Andrew Cashner deal on July 29, and then back on August 1, 2016, and this is perhaps the most infamous deal in AJ Preller trade lore.

The Reds were the beneficiary of all that foolishness as the traumatized & confused Marlins front office dealt Luis Castillo again a few months later. The tragic end of Colin Rea’s MLB career was the Marlins’ ugly unspoken organizational shame. When ace RHP Jose Fernandez was tragically killed in a boating accident a few weeks later, the Marlins fate was doomed. Soon after, longtime owner & new stadium swindler Jeffery Loria sold the Marlins for a billion dollars in profit, and Project Wolverine was implemented by new ownership.

Getting back to the Reds who have a history of never developing enough quality starters, they have gone the trade route to acquire a respectable rotation, maybe their best ever and this franchise has been in existence since 1869. Ex-Yankee RHP Sonny Gray has been extended through 2023 at an affordable cost, but RHP Trevor Bauer will be a free agent after 2020. The Reds are still a frontline pitched or two short, with big holes in their line-up. The Joey Votto extension ($25M per year 2020-2023, plus a $7M buyout) is their albatross.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been forced into the second-tier of free agency in 2020, after splashing with RHP Jake Arrieta & RF Bryce Harper the past two winters. Those signings already look bad, and it’s still early, which is scary if you are a Phillies fanatic. RHP Zack Wheeler (5/$118M) is their last plunge, and it better pay off, otherwise the Phils are sunk.

They may be sunk even if Wheeler pitches well, as their roster has too many holes in their line-up, rotation & bullpen. Didi Gregorius (1/$11.75M) at SS is risky & an overpay, which is hard to accomplish with a one-year deal, yet the Phils managed to do it. Very poor planning & money management in Philadelphia already has them near the $208M Luxury Tax threshold. They went for it before they were actually ready, and now they are stuck in the middle. Bryce Harper is their albatross.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are the last NL team to discuss. Once again, they are trading their top veteran player, this time it’s CF Starling Marte, who is age-31 and has two years of team control remaining at $24M. The last place Pirates won’t get much for him, and would do best to keep him, but recall this is the organization that traded ace RHP Gerrit Cole to Houston two years ago. Historically, this is the organization that let Barry Bonds walk. The Marlins are the worst team in the NL, with the Pirates not far ahead of them. With the fall of the Cubs, the NL Central is now the weakest division in the senior circuit.

After coveted 3B Josh Donaldson signs, there will be very few impact players left in free agency who can move the needle on any of this. It’s pitching that everyone needs. The challenge, especially for AL teams like the Rays & A’s, is to identify & sign this year’s Charlie Morton. The AL is tougher on pitchers because of the DH. Therefore the AL’s best & brightest GM’s take the top pitchers first, and leave the leftovers for the NL.

Since LHP Madison Bumgarner garners no interest from the Yankees, Astros or Rays, he has diminished value to their competitors. Notice how they weren’t interested in Zack Wheeler either. A mid-level NL team, or desperate AL team will make Madison Bumgarner (and his like) the best offers in the coming weeks of free agency. But it’s actual performance which drives wins in MLB, and it’s mostly diminishing futures for old starters. This much we know, and the rest will play out and reveal itself next season.

Many top teams don’t stick around for the Rule 5 Draft, as they aren’t making selections. Therefore this writer is also signing off on the 2019 Winter Meetings, because there is no Josh Hamilton available. Here’s a MLB preview of the Rule 5 Draft, and I’ll let readers figure the results out for themselves.

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