How to Build a Record Collection

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Since vinyl is in back in style, I’ll relate my own thoughts & experiences, which have been continuous since middle school. For me it’s been a worthwhile road, but there are many pitfalls. I’ll share some so you can (hopefully) avoid them, or at least recognize them quicker. Start by understanding this truth about human nature: music is emotional. That means it’s like food, money & sex– eliciting powerful responses. The universal human reaction is, everyone likes it and wants the best of their preferences for themselves.

Gain control of yourself by realizing that music is a lifetime choice. That means whatever you are liking as a kid, is what you are going to like as an adult. You don’t (& can’t) “outgrow” it. Whatever format you prefer, music is a lifetime commitment, and the medium is part of the message.

I got ripped off (price-wise) on my first few record purchases, which were at department store racks, and then Musicland in the Park Plaza Mall. Those institutions don’t even exist anymore. Back then, I was quickly informed by a Winneconne classmate that the Exclusive Company was the best place to buy records in Oshkosh, Wisconsin. Their prices were always unbeatable on new vinyl, and probably still are. You need a good record store in order to build a decent collection.

The market has inflated since the 1980’s, when Exclusive Co new-vinyl releases listed mostly at $5.99, with superstars such as Madonna, Springsteen, Prince, etc listing at $6.99. Note, Indie releases were also often listed at $6.99, indicating there was a serious demand for them even back then. Classic vinyl was mostly $4.99, with bargain bins of 3-for-$10 on many classic re-releases.

Selection is always THE issue for the serious enthusiast, so eventually someone behind the Exclusive Co desk showed me their encyclopedia. It had every album still-in-print. For a $1 deposit you could order any record, and it would arrive in a week. It was the only way to acquire punk rock (or anything else outside the mainstream) in the Fox Valley area in the mid-1980’s. Cut-out bins were a method to acquire artists like Brian Eno, Robert Fripp, and others who were (still are) disrespected by so many industry wheels. The public libraries had very little of this, while AM/FM radio & MTV never played it. That was how things were censored back then.

Used records should be the staple of any respectable collection, as it’s just too costly for most (with new vinyl now $20+) to build what you need from entirely fresh vinyl. Many essential records can be purchased for a few bucks apiece, in used record bins across America & beyond. Besides, who wants to be the schmuck who pays $20 apiece for albums that have been sitting in $1-2 bins everywhere since forever? Too much of this makes you an idiot over-spender, and those who know can always tell.

Bookstores often have record bins. How much disorganization, and “is it worth it?” are always considerations when approaching used records. A good rule is, the more disorganized, the less it’s worth it. You may find a pearl (or two), but usually it’s futile with a lot of back-breaking reaching & lifting. In the heat, it better be good– or else forget it. If the vendor hasn’t bothered to organize their bins into (at least) genres, then it is usually because it’s all junk.

As a point in training, first look over everything available and scan the few titles you see for quality of release & condition. Approach the best-looking areas and peel through a bin or two. How fast? Depends on the quality of what you are seeing. More good stuff means SLOW DOWN. Remember, this gets emotional, so look closely at the prices and consider your budget. If it’s all crap, then leave.

If a bin is filled tightly, you can’t really see the jackets, so grab a handful (or two) of records and pull them out. Look through them (on top of the rest), then gently place them somewhere close but out-of-the-way. There may be other people looking through, so stay out of their way too, as a courtesy.  Then go through the rest of the bin, seeing every cover clearly & easily. When finished with the bin, put the removed records back in, and move on. Believe it or not, there is a serious code to all this, and I’m condensing it for you.

When you see a title you like, check the record itself. Look at the label to make sure its title matches the jacket. It sucks when you get burned on that. Then look for scratches & warping. Pass on any significant warping, as it just won’t play. How much scratching you are will to put up with, depends on how much you want the album & the price. Many times, it’s dirt & grime, which can be cleaned off. All used records should be cleaned before playing. I use alcohol & gauze, because it’s cheap & effective. Use a circular wiping motion, and avoid too much excess as it leaves a residue. This will also protect you turntable’s needle, helping it last longer. Scotch tape any rips in the sleeve.

I acquired roughly half my collection from Renningers Flea Market in Mount Dora, particularly from a vendor named Wally Rossell– who is no longer there. He had a whole lot of selection, in difficult-to-find genres including classic rock, punk, reggae, jazz & country. He even had a significant selection of world music. It took me a long time to go through everything he had, and he kept acquiring more. I’m talking years. I eventually left him my phone #, and he would leave me a message when he had something new, which he knew I would like.  He knew what I liked, because we had discussions every time I purchased.

Record people love to talk about this stuff. Many vendors have bigger inventories at home and/or in a warehouse. Wally had been in the business for 40+ years, and will probably only leave it in death. I was always grateful for his efforts in finding amazing stuff, and NEVER argued with any of his pricing. Keep in mind, this is at a flea market in central Florida– where everyone haggles.

Records could only be sold at well-below their actual value from 1990 to ~ 2005, because the vinyl market was destroyed. In that time period, if you could hang on to your collection and had the means to expand it, you could acquire every essential classic record in every major genre for <$5 apiece. That’s what the music industry’s push to compact disc did to vinyl.

For me, it filled out my collection while keeping a budget. Speaking of controlling your spending, bootlegs are budget-busters and they will always cost you extra– no matter who is selling. Wally had more bootlegs than any other vendor I’ve ever come across, and I bought a few from him. Here’s my advice on boots: limit yourself to those artists you truly adore and can’t get enough of. Many bootlegs are live recordings, so have a good understanding of that artist. Are they a good live performer by reputation or personal experience? Also, you are gambling on the sound quality- if you don’t know for sure. A little bit of knowledge can be very dangerous, and stick you with costly lemons. Focus on the artists you love most, who really kill it live, and you’ll avoid expensive disappointments.

As far as what to buy? That’s up you you. Here are some rough guidelines:

1) Whatever you favorite genre is (pop, rock, rap, country,,,) start with the major artists. There’s always a reason they are loved (now) globally, and have lasted. You’ll probably relate to them as well.

2) Trace the roots of your favorite genre(s). A lot of the stuff kids are hearing today came from Charlie Parker, James Brown, the Beatles, Velvet Underground… There’s lots of cool stuff you’ve never heard, waiting to be rediscovered.

3) Expand into different world music genres. If you like rock music, or rap music; understand this music is being created in new forms– globally. The Internet puts it at your fingertips, but you have to know how to find it. First, you have to care.

4) Have fun! This is the most important rule, so I’m putting it last. Don’t be a “collector,” who buys & catalogs their records as museum pieces, but never plays them. Buy records that excite you, and make you want to play them again & again! It doesn’t matter what anyone else thinks, as long as they work for you. When done this way, the pay-off is priceless joy.

Strange as this may sound, I now consider my record collection to be an organic entity, connected to my being. On a daily basis I can go to it, and make a selection that immediately transports me back in time. The dominant medium before 1990 was vinyl, meaning CD and mp3 aren’t the same experience. If you grew up in that time, it’s much easier to understand and relate to what I’m saying.

Regardless, the message we receive from music (however it’s delivered) instantly impacts us, and changes our mood. If I’m feeling down, and I put on a Muddy Waters record, I’m hearing someone relating to me before I was born. That’s a timeless artist influencing others, and that’s the magic in the grooves. Way cheaper (and more helpful) than therapy!

Final thoughts:  My collection is defined as straight rock, lean & mean; < 2000 LPs & < 300 45’s. It’s all pre-1990. After that, I listen on CD or mp3/streaming as (once again) that’s the format of the time. All mentionable rock record collections start alphabetically with AC/DC. Note that if you’re gay or a woman, then ABBA is a more likely starting point. As an illustration, here’s what I have for AC/DC, and how it rates using the hated Rolling Stone magazine 1-5 star system.

High Voltage (1975) Five stars: One of the best-ever rock album debuts. These bad boys from Australia always had issues getting US distribution. Classic rock buffs initially hated AC/DC because they rocked so hard, making them look bad. AC/DC never cared about that shit, which is what won them so many young male fans.

Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap (1976) Five stars: Banned in the US (due to salacious content) for a long while, until Bon Scott’s death in 1980. This record has strong punk influence.

Let There Be Rock (1977) Four stars: The weakest Bon Scott album. Only eight tracks, and one of them is a repeat from Dirty Deeds (“Problem Child”), but most deliver a groove; and a two are deservedly rock-radio classics– “Whole Lot of Rosie” & the title track. This record often gets slagged by AC/DC haters who have too much time on their hands. Even Young, Young & Scott’s worst songs shredded Bob Dylan & the Rolling Stones at that time. That wasn’t allowed to go unpunished by the music industry.

Powerage (1978) Five stars: Their best album, and the last AC/DC collaboration with producers Harry Vanda & George Young. Every song has top-notch songwriting & delivery, with clean & tight production. Cliff Williams on bass is an improvement. There are nine songs on Powerage, and at least eight would have sounded great on radio and become classics if played consistently. It’s a very disrespectful joke that rock radio still only plays “Sin City.”

If You Want Blood You’ve Got It (1978) Four-and-a-half stars: AC/DC could bring it live. The only problem here is there isn’t enough, as this should have been a double album– at least.

Highway to Hell (1979) Four-and-a-half stars: Not quite as good as their 5-star classics, but still essential. You can hear a little more commercial sound in the production, but the band is staying true to their roots. This is the last Bon Scott album, as he died during the recording of Back in Black on February 19, 1980.

Back in Black (1980) Five stars: Brian Johnson took over on vocals, and there was enough remnant songwriting (& inspiration from Scott’s tragic death) to pull off one last masterpiece. This is probably the most classic heavy metal record ever, as every song delivers from beginning to end. It’s also the only good AC/DC album with Johnson singing.

For Those About to Rock We Salute You (1981) Two stars: Only the title cut and a few others groove, the rest is filler. Bon Scott was the genius that propelled AC/DC to the top, and it’s now clear that Brian Johnson has none of his creative wit & intellect. This is where you jump off as a sensible heavy metal fan (oxymoron?), as Van Halen, Iron Maiden, Def Leppard & Night Ranger are all more interesting at this point.

‘74 Jailbreak (1984) This as a 5-song EP of early Bon Scott material. I don’t bother rating EP’s, they’re either cool or they suck. This one is cool.

Guitar Notes: AC/DC was formed by brothers Malcolm & Angus Young. Anyone playing rock guitar since, has been influenced by these two, or else they suck. I rarely see them covered, and it’s because they’re too good and most aren’t up to their standard. Every AC/DC fan picks their favorite guitarist, and most go with Angus for his incomparable lead style– blending blues & classic rock into modern heavy metal. He was also the showman (especially after Scott’s death), parading around stage in his classic reform school outfit. But as much as I love Angus, I’m really a Malcolm protoge. For me, the heart of AC/DC’s sound, is the HEAVY riffing– which is Malcolm Young. One of the best bands ever.

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Is Danica Patrick Retiring?

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I keep commenting in NASCAR forums dominated by haters: “We need more stories on Danica.” Notice how people always have to comment on her when the topic is NASCAR, even when the write-up or conversation hasn’t mentioned her? They’re always VERY passionate about it. They’ll miss her when she’s gone, just like everyone else.

Some thoughts on why Danica Patrick isn’t so excited about Bristol [1]. The #10 car has neither the speed nor handling to stay with the leaders, especially on a round short track. She’ll likely be lapped by Truex (& the rest) early, lacking the horsepower to get back on the lead lap. Maybe a lucky dog, wave around, or caution breaks for her, but that’s not much to hope for.

All this has led to speculation that Danica Patrick will be done with professional racing after this 2017 season. If she does retire, it’s a much bigger story than Dale Earnhardt, Jr leaving as a driver. WAY BIGGER, and it’s hardly being whispered in the media. Junior Nation is moving up into the broadcast booth in 2018, which is awesome, as it keeps everyone in NASCAR happy. Danica (on the other hand) is a global icon, with strong appeal among the New York (ESPN) & the Hollywood elite crowd, so she’s probably gone for good– as far as NASCAR is concerned.

The list of NASCAR top-name drivers retiring (or being retired) in 2017 is noteworthy to hardcore fans. Earnhardt, Jr for sure; with Matt Kenseth, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Clint Bowyer, and now Danica Patrick all likely to not return. Those are two of their biggest stars (Junior & Danica– whichever order you want), and about one-third of the veteran drivers. What about Trevor Bayne at Roush Fenway? The point is, this carnage isn’t over. Race teams are going into cost cutting mode, and drivers salaries are where it starts.

The truth is NASCAR’s Good ‘Ol Boy network underrated, ignored, and intentionally wrecked her– out of jealousy. Danica reaches across class, age, race & gender boundaries like no other athlete; including Tiger Woods, Tom Brady, Roger Federer or Lebron James. I shouldn’t have to tell you why?

Danica Patrick is the only woman to compete against men– in any major sport’s series, for her entire career. And if only one (1) career victory (Indycar) is all she gets, then it’s still good enough in terms of her racing Hall-of-Fame credentials. In Patrick’s case, it’s about her impact on motorsports, which is incalculable.

She was a primary impetus for SAFER barriers. The one thing that could never be allowed to happen (besides her winning), was for her to get killed in a race car. The safety advances she inspired which value women’s lives above men’s is inherently unfair, but pays-it-back by benefiting ALL drivers. If that’s what it takes to make a sport safer & better, then we need more women competing & participating with men. As a parallel, if more women actually participated in war, then we’d have less killing & horrible injuries. Just something to consider…

Danica Patrick handled all the unfairness & cruelty directed at her, as well as anyone could expect. She must have known that her results & competitiveness were being suppressed by male chauvinism & hate. Her driving skills are undeniable to those who competed against her. Open wheel racing, and now NASCAR, are never to be the same again. It used to be “Gentlemen, start your engines!” Who do you think changed all that?

For those who don’t get it: racing is about men competing for the best pussy. When Danica (stunning female) is on the track, and every guy is racing to cut her off, bump & grind her, spin her out, or wreck her– just so they can get off. This is egotistical primal instinct, which ignorance refuses to temper or manage. That’s NASCAR.

Danica Patrick’s elite driving skills rarely get to come into play in NASCAR, as the field is jammed up with dick-weeds, most of whom know they can’t compete, so messing with her is their next best thing. On the other end, the elite NASCAR assholes (JGR) get their wins early in the season, and with their post-season ticket punched, spend much of their remaining time wrecking her– just for kicks. When the Chase starts, she’s not in it, so she’s forgotten. Might this explain why she can’t get enough sponsorship anymore?

As far as retirement goes, her fans will understand. Who needs all this? Danica is a superstar, yet her job sounds like so many of our own work days, filled with joyless drudgery & obligation to others. Where is the time for happiness? Hopefully she’ll find it in retirement, because it’s clear she’s having no fun on the track anymore.

If you missed her career then shame on you, because it’s been really amazing. Beyond beauty, her career is defined by unbreakable determination & underrated intelligence. My personal polling shows Danica Patrick is disliked by most adult women out of jealousy, which is their problem. There are a few women (usually Dale, Jr fans) who say, “Bless your heart!”  For the boys & men, Danica is everyone’s girlfriend (she doesn’t mind, in fact she make a lot of money on it)– and that’s what makes her so awesome.  So (guys), can you can see how there would be some bitch factor hating on her? In short: there is no athlete like her, and no one to replace her.

Footnote: The closest thing NASCAR has to replacing Danica, is Darrell “Bubba” Wallace, Jr– which obviously isn’t the same thing. In case you haven’t noticed, Bubba is black. NASCAR considers this to be very important to their sponsors & ratings, and it’s why they are pushing hard for a team to give him a Cup ride in 2018.

Darrell Wallace, Jr did a nice job filling in for Aric Almirola’s #43 while he was recovering from a broken back. Unfortunately, Bubba’s truck series victory at Michigan last week has been encumbered by NASCAR, after failing post-race inspection. L1 penalty, $5K fine, and crew chief suspension for Bristol. NASCAR and their many of their fans want Wallace in a Cup ride, but this doesn’t help. I hope the kid gets a shot, but he needs to play fair. When you’re a woman or minority (Daniel Suarez) driver in NASCAR, you need to be squeaky clean. And the flipside is: sponsors are OK with cheating, just as long as you aren’t busted. Too much hypocrisy for you?  Welcome to the show that never ends.

Post-Script 9-1-17: Timeline of 2017 sponsors for Danica Patrick

Nature’s Bakery reneges on the remaining 2 years of their 3-year deal with Danica Patrick & SHR in late-January. The only sponsors she had left for the upcoming 36-race season were Aspen Dental for 4 races, Tax Act for 4-6 races, and Mobil/Exxon for 2 races, and Ford for 1-2 races. Many in the industry speculated she wouldn’t make it through the season, with so little time to find new sponsorship. Here is what’s happened since:

Aspen Dental immediately committed to “double–digit” races with Danica Patrick. Aspen soon after became the “official dentist of NASCAR.”

Wonder Woman (2017) opened on June 2, and a huge part of its promotional campaign was Danica. Who else could it have been in NASCAR? Wonder Woman is a bad movie artistically, but it’s a blockbuster hit, as you can see:

Budget $149 million
Box office $806.8 million

It’s not unreasonable to presume that Danica driving as Wonder Woman added tens-of-millions of dollars to the box office.

With a sponsorship shortfall starting to kick in by May, Patrick went the charitable route for several race sponsorships. Code 3 Associates is an animal rescue charity she supports. It also serves as a write-off for her, and when you have her kind of money, you need them. I believe Aspen Dental also picks up part of the bill, as it’s almost always in their blue & white color scheme.

Nature’s Bakery insisted on 2 more races with Danica in 2017, as part of their legal settlement with SHR around mid-season. This is after NB claimed Danica didn’t “represent them well enough” in their lawsuit. Funny how that all turns back around, isn’t it?

Now she’s unveiling her Richmond sponsor: Warrior by Danica, in partnership with the Home Shopping Network (HSN). She’s been moving inventory on HSN for awhile now, after starting her own clothing line last year. Danica Patrick is skilled in sewing, and was motivated by being stiffed by NASCAR on the t-shirt merchandising year-after-year. Her shirts are always the first to fly off the racks, but she has no leverage and accepts whatever pittance NASCAR says they’ll pay her. Now she’s investing in her own sponsorship, and changing the rules– again!

Usually athletes are hustling for someone else. Now Danica is promoting herself, as she has a business plan and the money to do it. That’s what you do when everyone says you’re out-of-options, and nobody does it better than Danica. That’s how you go out, and it’s truly a brilliant move.

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San Diego Keeping Andy Green

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Padres extend manager Green’s contract
Skipper’s deal was set to end after 2018; now through ’21

I read this piece, and had to comment. This is what I said, with final thoughts added.

There is no question to this: If Padres GM AJ Preller didn’t extend Andy Green, then some big-spending competitive team would have made him an offer.

More on why this was such a prescient move. Note that a lot of the comments from Padres fans are along the lines of, “They’re a lot better than most people said they would be.” Why is this? It certainly NOT because of the talent on their 25-man roster. Ace lefty reliever Brad Hand is the Padres lone All-Star in 2017.

What makes Hand extra-valuable is manager Andy Green knowing how to use him properly, which steals wins. It’s really hard for Friar’s fans to say who their next-most valuable player is, but it’s probably rookie CF Manny Margot.

This is the youngest roster in MLB, by far. They have carried three Rule 5 players this season, which usually guarantees 100+ losses. Their current winning % is .436, which translates to 70-92. The Padres have overplayed their Pythagorean projection by 8 games, and most of that is due to Brad Hand & Andy Green.

A set-back for the Padres this season has been the performance of 1B Wil Myers. Age 26 & healthy, he’s currently slashing .239/.320/.464. Still good defensively at 1B, but his lack-of-bat seems to have caused some regression there also, as he’s committing more mental errors in the field. The problem at the plate is strike zone judgment. He swings at too many 3-2 pitches that are ball 4, turning them into outs. It’s a team problem as the Padres hit too many solo HR’s (in terms of overall HR-type %), with the worst OBP in MLB. OBP is life in baseball; and pitching, defense & 3-run homers are what win.

As a Padres fan, I suspected trouble when Wil Myers came into Spring Training and stated his personal goal was “40 HR’s & 40 SB’s.”  Myers’ 28 SB w/ 6 CS in 2016, caught many people by surprise. He’s 11 SB w/ 5 CS, so far in 2017. He shouldn’t try to be a SB guy, he needs to stay healthy & mash. His 2018 (and beyond) goals will need to prioritize OBP, if he is to progress as a player.

The Padres invested heavily in Wil Myers this past off-season, so the motivation & resources will be made available. Wil Myers just needs to get his head straight and figure it out. He has all the talent in the world, and that’s why AJ Preller gave up so much to get him, Trading SS/UT Trea Turner & RHP Joe Ross (both currently DL-ed) to the Nationals in a 3-team deal. Rays got RF Steven Souza, Jr, and it’s still hard to know who actually got the best of that deal?  Sometimes it takes 3-5 years to know, and this is one of those cases. Padres need Wil Myers to work out, by being at least above-average production at 1B, otherwise their current rebuilding effort is already starting to crumble.

Final note on handling players. Padres manager Andy Green has done everything he can do with Wil Myers, including recently sitting him for 3 games to “straighten his head out, get a mental break, etc…” September call-ups need to play for the Padres.  As good as their farm system is, Wil Myers may be seeing some more bench time this season– who knows? Stabilizing a young core (with better talent) around him will certainly help. The Padres are definitely doing this, as lefty-hitting 2B Carlos Asuaje may be their most-recent MLB pipeline addition. Acquired in the Craig Kimbrel deal…

Star contracts are a tricky & delicate balance, as ownership/management uses the carrot & stick. The deciding factors always come down to character, motivation & intelligence. The Padres still seem to still believe in Myers, (who at least isn’t whining or venting on teammates), so there’s room for optimism, but there needs to be more tangible progression– soon.  We’ll see…

Hypothetically, a right-handed Joey Votto (career .313/.427/.541), with better defense & base-running should be Will Myers’ player goal. That may be a little lofty comparatively, but it should still be in the area of his goal. What Preller & Green need out of Myers is a durable, championship-caliber 3-hole hitter. That’s the franchise player who drives a lineup, and catapults a team (with any kind of pitching) into contention. It’s what the Padres paid for when they signed him for 6 years $83 M this past winter. How will it pay off through 2022, is a franchise-defining question that hasn’t been answered yet?

From a minor-league standpoint, 2017 has been a huge success for the Padres. Their teams are mostly winning, and their prospects are mostly advancing. AJ Preller has brought in a depth of talent that has transformed this franchise from a joke, into the #3-ranked farm system in MLB. Yankees & Braves are ranked 1-2. Yankees are in the AL, so no worries until the WS– which isn’t happening anytime soon in SD. The Braves have a mess on their ML roster, and their prospects haven’t performed as well as expected, SS Dansby Swanson being the most prominent example. The Padres farm system was 30th (or so), when Preller took over as GM in 2015. Perhaps what’s now most-exciting for Padres fans, is seeing better players (& pitchers) starting to pop-up– seemingly out of nowhere! This is an indication of superior deep scouting, followed-up with proper player development. When you do things right, and stick with it, nice surprises start to happen over & over.

The biggest Padres minor-league organizational set-back of 2017 was RHP Anderson Espinoza blowing out his elbow, necessitating Tommy John surgery. Recall this was the prized pitching prospect, dealt by the Red Sox for LHP Drew Pomeranz in 2016. Pomeranz has since pitched the whole time in Boston, even while AJP was suspended by MLB for “undisclosed anti-inflammatories” in this trade. The irony of all this only deepens for Padres fans.

It still takes awhile for what’s happening here to translate into winning at the MLB level, but the process the Padres are going through is fundamentally correct. If/when it happens, AJ Preller will have turned a hopeless organization into a winner, faster than any GM in modern baseball. In other words, the Padres have to win it all, for Preller & Green to be widely recognized as being the best. Based on their abilities and performance, they’re already at least in that discussion. The GM-manager relationship is the most important to any organization baseball. There has to be 100% agreement on everything between the two, otherwise factionalism & hidden agendas destroy team continuity & chemistry. Time is all that is required for positive proof in San Diego. The enemy is impatience & short-sightedness, which tends to be the preferred perspective of the naysayers & critics, only proving they refuse to understand anything.

Padres Injury Notes & Up-Coming Roster Decisions

AJ Preller took a low-cost free-agency flier on Jered Weaver, to see if he had anything left in the tank. He didn’t, but it didn’t really matter to the Padres season, so there’s no hard feelings. His type of retirement is always a bit awkward, as everyone remembers him as an Angel. Well-handled by the Padres organization & Jered Weaver.

Padres roster decisions GM AJ Preller will have to soon make include: LHP Christian Friedrich, who made $1.8M in 2017, but didn’t pitch at all due to injuries. Left lat muscle & elbow giving him pain. His root issue is lack of hip, back & core strength. Preller & Andy Green will have to decide if he’s worth another go around in arbitration. Preller found better low-cost options last winter, and I suspect he’ll release Friedrich and try a similar strategy this coming off-season. We’ll see how the market plays out after the World Series…

Age 27 LF Alex Dickerson was said to be a “big part of their 2017 plans,” by some in the Padres organization last winter. He of the career 1.0 WAR. I never believed it, especially when rumors surfaced of CF Travis Jankowski & Dickerson being floated as trade bait. Dickerson now has been diagnosed with a bulging disk in his lower back, and has been transferred to the 60-day DL. He’s most-likely finished as a big-league player, and note that this is how many, many sports’ careers come to an end– unnoticed & physically disabled, with pain.

Travis Jankowski (age 26, career -0.2 WAR) hurt his foot, and has been rehabbing in the minors. His 90 PA’s (so far) in AAA El Paso are .263/.378/.355. He still can’t hit lefties, and has no pop. These were the “top prospects” AJP inherited (most of the best of which, he kept), when he took over as GM. Jankowski is still cheap, but is he worth a 40-man roster spot, when better & younger prospects have to be protected (or else exposed) before the Rule 5 draft?

LHP Clayton Richard & RHP Jhoulys Chacin have both said they want to return, and the Padres should do it– if the cost & contract length is agreeable. Nothing more than 2 years, for either, and more-likely, one year. Padres may get priced-out by the big-silly spenders.

RHP Jarred Cosart is a medical case, and now a long-shot at age 27. Padres expect LHP Robbie Erlin to be ready for ST 2018. He’s still recovering from TJ surgery in 2016. RHP Colin Rea finally submitted to TJ surgery in 2017, after blowing his elbow out in his only appearance as a Miami Marlin in 2016. Pitching is so hard to find, and they’re all so very cheap, so the Padres most-likely keep them all.

 

Update [9-2-17]: Padres cut ties with hitting coach Zinter
Friars on pace to finish last in MLB in average, OBP in back-to-back years

Alan Zinter (below) was an organizational hire by AJP, brought in when Andy Green was hired. He was one of Green’s guys from his minor-league managing stint with the Diamondbacks. AJP is calling this move. OBP is their biggest weakness, so it makes sense. I wonder how bench coach Mark McGwire now fits into their plans?

The Padres have overachieved on their pitching, both starting & bullpen. Keep in mind that not much was expected from the rotation. This over achievement is due to Andy Green & Darren Balsley. The results on the offensive side haven’t been as impressive, and it’s not because Andy Green is a klutz when it comes to using his bench or writing in a lineup. It’s because OBP is life in baseball, and the Friars are dead last again. The Padres lineup can’t continue to allow opposing starters to roll through easy innings, with guys swinging themselves into easy outs. More walks put the pitcher in the stretch, which stresses them. This leads to longer innings, more base runners & more runs. More runs means more wins. The failures of Wil Myers & Hunter Renfroe (mentioned in the article) are the tangible reasons Alan Zinter is fired. His replacement will be expected to produce better results from these two & the rest, but especially from Myers as he’s the big contract. He’s got a ton of talent, which we’ve all seen, but he’s also got head problems it seems.

Sportswriter: What’s the best hitting advice you ever got?
Ted Williams: It was from Rogers Hornsby. He told me, “Make them throw you a strike.”

For Myers & Renfroe, new goals for counting stats need to be: more walks & doubles. This will correlate to less strikeouts & more hits. Cuttings down to protect with two strikes is a prudent approach, especially in stressful at-bats against tough pitchers. Both have the power to hit it out with less than a full swing anyways. What’s lacking is strike zone judgment & control. At times it appears there’s also no plan (individual or team) to attack a pitcher. Hitting is probably the most difficult skill in sports, so it’s not like anyone has figured out all the answers, but just seeing more pitches in an AB (even if it still produces an out), has value. The pitcher is throwing more pitches and will become more vulnerable, sooner.

Padres hitters need to take more of a grind approach to every AB. If this is done up & down the line-up (with their power), it will crush most NL pitching. Note– the best grinding line-up (in recent memory) was the 1998 NY Yankees. That was a high OBP, with power 1-9; and the Padres didn’t really have much of a chance against them even with their best team ever. In the NL it’s 1-8, so this can be achieved with less payroll, which is nice. This is the direction that Preller & Green want to offense to go, as this is what’s holding everything back. Once the line-up consistently produces, the young pitching will be ready from the minors.

Another feather in Andy Green’s cap is his use of defensive shifts, which were the most dramatic in MLB in 2016, his first year a manager. The league has caught up to him & the Padres, by increasing their shifting. The point is Andy Green sees all facets of the game, manages them masterfully, and is highly respected by his peers. Bruce Bochy was only the latest to pay his respects, after their last series. Green knows where his responsibilities begin & end, and is in full partnership with his GM. When the Padres actually have a MLB roster, instead of pre-arbs, prospects & Rule 5 selections, it’s going to get a lot better in a hurry. Manny Margot is a stud, and Carlos Asuaje is a possibility. The Kimbrel deal and all the other moves AJP made in 2016, are going to reap huge bounties for years to come, and it started showing in 2017.

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Gordon Christensen, DDS

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Often when you meet someone in-person you’ve long-admired, it’s a disappointment. Through marketing & public-relations manipulating, people can project themselves as something they really aren’t.  Others burn-out too soon, and become husks reduced to shilling for their audiences.  A lot of musicians & entertainment types fall into that trap.  Also our naivety can lead to lofty, and sometimes unfair expectations. Sport “heroes” often fall into this category.

…and other times our expectations are exceeded! 

If one can mature from naivety into wisdom, without become hard-hearted & cynical, then one can learn to recognize greatness in others. In turn, others will recognize it in you.

The “Father of Modern Dentistry” is G.V. Black, and below is a photo from the cover page of Black’s 1897 classic textbook:

I mention this because every dentist in America (and around the world) knows Gordon Christensen,  who is regarded as the “father of today’s dentistry,” by many, many in the profession. He is highly respected by everyone in the field, for telling them the truth about practicing in the real world [1].  Knowing the difference between what works & what doesn’t, can be a practice saver. It’s also good for one’s sanity. Gordon Christensen has been educating dentists on all this and more, for over 40 years.

Since most of my readers aren’t in the dental profession, I’ll skip the details of Gordon Christensen’s 6-hour presentation (pamphlet above), and instead describe what makes a man great in general terms. I’ll sometimes speak in the masculine gender, but all this applies equally to women. Photo of Gordon Christensen below by Marie Peck:

When a truly significant person is being introduced, they are humble & observant. They seek to use humor, often by poking fun at themselves, to relax their audience. This makes the audience feel their more equal to the performer, which everybody likes.

A natural performer moves through the crowd. First with their eyes, then physically whenever possible. This lets everyone get “up close,” and connects the performer with the crowd. They always command the microphone, especially when taking questions from the audience. They summarize and move quickly, engaging & disengaging often to maintain a stream of fresh content.

Their presentation will be varied, and tailored to each crowd. Every audience is different and a natural performer will read the faces to see what’s working, and (more importantly) what’s not. At the first signs of audience disinterest, the superior performer will recognize and shift gears, transitioning towards more attention-grabbing content.

The genius trick to being an exceptional performer is making it all look easy. The best just keep going, and when it’s all over you (audience) are exhausted, while the performer could have kept going for hours. The best can always keep going, whenever necessary. This is because they are physically & mentally fit, and completely in their niche. They own it, but don’t be fooled: it’s also the product of thorough preparation & hard work.

Even when things go wrong (which is most of the time), the best handle it with grace & ease, blending in their own variety of humor & personal touch. All this is called style, and the best performers & professionals have it.  It’s instantly recognizable, and electrifying to be around. After the initial exhaustion of such an intense experience, audience members are often re-energized for a long time afterwards.

Much of our lives are dull monotony, so when we get the rare privilege of interacting with someone truly gifted & special, it’s a powerful experience. These are the people that change lives through force-of-personality & living example. The best let other people list their credentials and talk about them, because they are too busy working on what’s next to be concerned with promoting themselves.

These qualities of exceptionality are what we need to cultivate more of in ourselves. Dr. Gordon Christensen is so respected in dentistry because he’s the genuine article, which is extremely rare– anywhere. He tells the truth (even when we don’t want to hear it), and leads by example.  That’s the best way to lead, and that’s why so many dentists listen to him.

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Resisting Revolution

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People naturally resist hard work & pain. It starts at birth and ends at death. Truth & love are dialectical opposites; they are what we most want, but also most fear.

Everyone thinks they’re right about everything. When (if) one discovers the error of this “thinking,” it becomes a humbling, but powerful growing experience.

Most Americans are sleep-walking through their days, on an ego trip over themselves. The idea of putting others outside their own ‘world’ before themselves never occurs to these zombies. They live lives of selfish desperation, hopped-up on themselves, full of disorders & ignorance. Whatever addiction is driving them is their sole reason for existence, as their own force of personality ceased to exist long ago. These are the consumerist, brain-dead constituencies for Bush/McCain/Trump & Clinton/Obama/Sanders.

Left-wing liberals of all stripes are a pesky irritant which always resist revolutionary action. Confined to historical impotence by their dearth of thought & lack of backbone, they can only follow along in rhythm with the right wing, as both are attached to the same imperialist carcass. Liberalism is most notorious for its uncanny ability to discern relevant facts in science, literature & art– exactly up to half the truth– then arrive at precisely the wrong conclusion as to its importance– every time.

The reasons for their .000 batting average is their omnipresent & overriding self-interest in capitalism, which provides just enough crumbs to sustain them. This petty-bourgeoisie layer has been carefully selected & cultivated, providing a significant ideological buffer for the ruling elite. Feminism, black racialism & gay politics are tough to get past, as they have armies of zealots in key media positions, with the full backing of the Democratic Party machinery & the deep-state intelligence apparatus. These frauds & charlatans are able to present themselves as credible and thoughtful leaders, far too often.

The right-wing censorship of free speech that affects everyone on the left (outside of the WSWS), actually protects liberalism. By censoring and cutting off all serious political discussion, the farce of liberalism can still promote itself as credible, without having to face its most-whithering opponents– Marxists. Their political strategy can be correctly described as gutless, but prudent.

Everyday people don’t want to believe that any of this is true, or that it even could be true. It’s so much easier, and a much more attractive option, to ignore all this and play the game like everyone else. The problem is, this game is ending. The corporate monopolies have conquered every domain, and most working people have nothing but a life of debt & drudgery ahead of them. Global warming is getting worse, and all the US president (whichever party) ever wants to do is start another war. That’s when people stop resisting, and start embracing revolution.

It is the job of revolutionary socialists to educate and politically arm as many working comrades & youth as possible. The more the working classes of the world have consciously worked out Marxist political theory, the more coordinately & decisively they will strike at the heart of capitalism when the time comes. It is the role of leadership is to share as much as possible with the best elements of the working class & youth [1].

Sharing is another notion that runs contrary to our “everyday thinking.” Helping someone else, without expecting a return, is foolish under capitalism. “This must be done away with,” is the corporate line. Such messed-up ethics are turning us into monsters, which consume & destroy for no good reason. Facing these truths about our “dark sides” is uncomfortable, and too many people have enabled themselves to avoid any such form of discomfort or social distress.

The ongoing obesity epidemic is but(t) one example of ignoring truth, allowing this disorder to continue manifesting itself. It’s now terribly uncool to “fat shame” anyone, when that’s precisely what overweight people need. Of course, it shouldn’t be a public humiliation, but there surely needs to be a sense of guilt in allowing one’s body to become so desecrated with excessive fat. That’s a healthy and natural instinct, which needs to be scientifically cultivated in order to gain control of deteriorating public health in “first-world” nations, the U.S. being foremost.

We live in an era of untruth. People have become so sensitized to their own delusions & disorders, that it’s often impossible to talk to them honestly & constructively. Establishing a healthy equilibrium in this is what people resist the most, but it also contains the revolutionary potential to set them free. Seeing all this is difficult enough, and actually following through is the road less traveled, which most people bypass. The truth is the high road sucks; as it’s long, torturous & full of sacrifices. Those who choose the “easy road” discover (too late) that it’s a dead-end for true happiness. The moral & truth is, the hard road always meets up with us down the path of life, so there’s no use in avoiding it. Embrace it instead.

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Why We Loathe Kyle Busch

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Kyle Busch drives the #18 car in NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup series. His team is Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR), one of the top title contenders year-after-year. Through their manufacturer Toyota, JGR consistently fields some of the fastest cars on the grid, including (below) Kyle Busch’s #18.

Kyle Busch won the (then) Sprint Cup title in 2015, and is one of the winningest drivers remaining on the circuit. And yet so many racing fans dislike this guy and here is why?

These screenshots are all from 8-6-17 at Watkins Glen, NY– which is a road course.  In the first shot below, we have an aerial view of #18 Kyle Busch and #2 Brad Keselowski spinning off the course.

 

There are only two road-course races per season in NASCAR Cup competition, and they are considered ‘wild card’ races, which means they get more heated than usual, as more drivers feel they can actually win this race.

Above is Kyle Busch screaming into his radio, blaming (and threatening) another driver after he himself caused the spin-out, by trying to pass where he shouldn’t have. Drivers can’t pass around the ‘bus stop’ at Watkins Glen, and everyone except Kyle Busch accepts this. But instead of being contrite, Kyle is mad.

Sidenote: The last time Kyle Busch tried to ‘kill’ a Penske driver after a race was here, a few months ago:

In this video (which is hilarious) Kyle Busch was again driving way too aggressively in the corners, pinning a competitor too far down until he spun out. Kyle Busch gets REALLY mad when the wreck he causes spins into him, and causes him to wreck instead!

Professionally, that looks really bad so immediately he flips into spin mode. Whenever he’s yelling at whomever on his radio, it’s all a bleep-show for ScanAll & NASCAR America. Kyle Busch is mad, get out of his way– he owns the road!!

Kyle Busch is actually the worst form of driver, and there are far too many of his imitators out on our public roadways. Joey Logano handled himself beautifully, and I honestly became a bit of a fan for #22 at his “None on me” comment. Also gotta love the ninja skills in action.

Back to Watkins Glen:  Here is the dialogue between Kyle Busch and his crew chief (Adam Stevens), after the caution flag (which he caused) came out:

And here is Kyle Busch’s response:

Then the #18 spotter (Tony Hirschman) tries to settle his driver down, but Kyle Busch isn’t listening. As you can see below, the #18 is already into the #10 car on the re-start, as this conversation is happening…

…and there she goes again!!

If this was a serious racing series, the #18 car would be black-flagged as the race continues under green. Not a chance in NASCAR. In the earlier incident between Busch & Keselowski, the yellow flag was immediately thrown, even though both cars were able to get safely back onto the track. This is because both drivers are NASCAR favorites, and they can’t be allowed to lose valuable track position. There is no such concern for Danica Patrick as far as NASCAR goes, so it stays green as the field zooms by:

Here’s #10 car driver Danica Patrick’s initial response on the radio:

Then a more measured one:

Video is definitive evidence in NASCAR. Here’s the Fox Sports video from which these screenshots were taken.

Final thoughts: What’s the point of running against overgrown babies like Kyle Busch, who have superior cars and the freedom to wreck others? Kyle Busch insists on using dirty tactics whenever it suits him, then denies & blames others, knowing there will never be any serious repercussions from NASCAR. In fact it’s just the opposite, Kyle Busch is constantly promoted as one of NASCAR’s biggest stars.

Honestly, he’s just another reason to tune out.

Bristol Update (race held 8-19-17): Fans understand how much it helps Xfinity & their truck series to have star drivers like Kyle Busch competing in their races, they just aren’t THAT impressed when he clearly has the fastest car in the Cup event on Saturday night. “Crazy fast” was how another Cup team identified the #18 car on ScanAll/Radioactive. So how could minor-league drivers have a ghost of a chance against that package? Great sweep for him, but we’re just not as impressed as NASCAR die-hards & Kyle Busch. Brad Keselowski was right, JGR has been sandbagging. We’re 2 races from the Chase, and it’s showing up for real now.

As far as who NASCAR should hitch their wagon to for the next 10 years or so, it’s age-25 Kyle Larson. Kyle Busch is age 32. NASCAR is getting younger, and Kyle Busch will start seeing more competition from “teammates” Erik Jones & Daniel Suarez, as JGR commits to youth in 2018. If Busch can’t help develop these youngsters into elite drivers (because he’s only concerned with his results), then he quickly becomes a liability to JGR. Slippage will start to show soon at his age, since NASCAR is now becoming more of a sport.

Those who “hate losing more than they love winning” are the biggest jerks, sucking the joy out of everything [1]. It’s what makes them the biggest losers in the end, and it’s why so many loathe Kyle Busch. Yes, he can drive, and he’s active at all levels which is good for NASCAR, I guess? We just don’t understand him taking bows after winning truck-series races, against up-and-coming drivers who know they can’t compete with his far superior equipment & driving experience. It’s shooting fish in a barrel, and sportsmen (& women) don’t respect that so much.

 

 

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Trade Deadline Results & NL Round-Up

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Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make.

Steve Stone as color man to the late, great Harry Carey used to repeat that quote often on WGN Cubs’ broadcasts. Everyone said Padres GM AJ Preller HAD to trade Brad Hand (below). His value would never be higher! He’s useless on a bad team, etc…

The most coveted & valuable player this Trade deadline (now past), is staying in San Diego. The MLB Trade deadline is about competitive teams gearing up for a World Series run. Everyone talks about ace starters, and they are what’s most valuable during the regular season. But they aren’t what’s available, as RHP’s Sonny Gray (A’s) & Yu Darvish (Texas) topped the list of available starters that actually were traded.

Yu Darvish (above) was costly, even as a 3-month rental, but the Dodgers kept their top prospects. RHP Justin Verlander was even dicier for the Tigers, considering his age and contract owed, so he stayed in Detroit. None were more coveted than Padres ace lefty reliever Brad Hand.

As we all know, every post-season comes down to the bullpens. Aces can no longer pitch complete games with any regularity, so it’s constantly a battle of bullpens from the 6th and 7th inning on. It’s the team that gets the toughest outs (late) that wins, and that means premium value for ace set-up pitchers. Brad Hand is Andrew Miller valuable (with a better contract), so Padres GM AJ Preller valued him accordingly. There was a precedent set the year before by the Yankees GM Brian Cashman, to extract something similar to what he received in dealing Miller (below) to Cleveland & LHP Aroldis Chapman (a rental) to the Cubs.

Also notice in this discussion I haven’t mentioned the value of acquiring a hitter at the deadline. That’s because there is very little. The rule is: acquire only to keep a position from falling into replacement level & adding depth. The exception is: Unless a HOF-bat with some peak years left becomes available. There were no HOF hitters available this deadline.

Don’t “acquire a veteran bat” because basically they’re worthless due to bad defense, which means giving up prospects for something that isn’t an upgrade. That’s why OF’s Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, etc… attract so little interest. They’re overpaid, overrated players who perform at (or below) replacement level. Teams like the Mets who don’t understand this get stuck with players like these. One way to screw up a promising pitching core is to pay top dollar to put bad defense behind them, and poor hitters in the lineup. The Braves have the same issue.

AJ Preller controlled the market, by NOT trading the biggest prize. Detroit’s closer LHP Justin Wilson was the best reliever that was actually dealt (to the Cubs).  Baltimore couldn’t deal its lefty closer Zach Britton because of injury issues, as he’s too much of a TJ surgery candidate.  In the end, desperate teams had to scramble back to their second options, or worse. See: Nationals acquire closer Brandon Kintzler from the Twins.

Meanwhile the Padres retained their ace closer for another season– at least. Brad Hand will get a nice raise in arbitration, while still being an amazing bargain, helping the Padres win games they would otherwise lose. Those kind of players are really, really valuable. AJ Preller set a reasonable price, and no one was willing to pay what Brad Hand is actually worth, so no deal was consummated for the plum relief ace of this year’s trade season. Every contender, save one [!] is going to regret not trying a little harder to get Brad Hand at some point this October.

NL Round-Up:

Brewers lost another “must-win” game in their rubber match at Miller Park with the Cubs on Sunday (7-30). Brewers fans can choose to 1) believe in 2017, or 2) notice their righty set-up men all stink, and 3) their starting pitching is breaking down (as usual), with RHP Jimmy Nelson as their only front line horse currently not on the DL. The rest of their starters are mediocre-to-poor. The Brew Crew are also below replacement level at 2B & CF.

Brewers fans love 3B Travis Shaw (from the Red Sox), and especially RF Domingo Santana (above– acquired in the Carlos Gomez & Mike Fiers-to-HOU deal) because they are both young and productive. 1B Eric Thames had a fluky hot start, but has cooled since; proving he’s nothing the Brewers should invest a future in. RF Ryan Braun can’t stay healthy, so GM David Stearns can’t deal him. Braun’s chronic injuries are turning a Hall-of-Fame productive hitter into an albatross contract for the small-payroll Milwaukee Brewers.

There are still too many holes to fill, and neither enough money from ownership to cover to the necessary payroll increase, nor the willingness to pay what it would cost in prospects for Sonny Gray, Yu Darvish & Brad Hand (and that’s just pitching need alone) to stay with the Cubs. The Brewers would be emptying their farm system on what would still be a flawed team, which is a mistake.

The Cubs probably won the NL Central when they acquired LHP Jose Quintana (above) from the White Sox. Acquiring left-handed reliever Justin Wilson and backup catcher Alex Avila from the Tigers at the deadline filled the Cubs bullpen & depth needs. The Cubs have Theo Epstein & Jed Hoyer (below) running the show, which is about as good as it gets for baseball management. They made the best deals to get what they needed at the deadline, and improved themselves the most. Their chances of repeating have increased dramatically, while the cost in prospects was considerable, but tolerable.

The truly bad National League teams all currently reside in last place, and will finish there. These are the Phillies & Reds (no surprise), and the Giants which was unexpected. The Phils & Reds are direction-less, lacking leadership at the top. Don’t expect either of their fortunes to change until there are major front office shake-ups.

The Giants are now facing a complete rebuild, after a successful run in winning 3 World Series championships in 5 seasons. Giants GM Brian Sabean will need to take a long look at his organization this winter, as their championship window appears to have closed. They now have an aging & payroll-heavy roster that needs to be turned over. In many ways they are simliar to the Cardinals, but in a tougher division.

The NL West winner will be the Dodgers, and they will have the best overall record in MLB, which now decides home field advantage in the World Series match-up. More on them below. Both NL Wild Cards will come out of the West, in the Diamondbacks & Rockies– both of which were unexpected.

Of the two, the team more likely to be competitive in 2018-and-beyond are the Diamondbacks, with their ownership commitment and new front office. Arizona’s farm system needs to be rebuilt after the damage former-GM Dave Stewart inflicted upon it, and this limits their ceiling in 2017. They probably don’t have the organizational strength to match the Dodgers or Cubs in October, and will likely have to content themselves with a Wild Card and post-season appearance in 2017. But then again it’s baseball, and stranger things have happened…

The Rockies have a promising young pitching staff, which is carrying them in 2017. They will need to keep it healthy, and (of course) find an ace in order to take the next step competitively. I have my reasons for pessimism, and it mostly centers around Rockies GM Jeff Bridich’s decision making. The Ian Desmond signing (5/$70M) has been a bust for Colorado (-0.9 WAR in 2017, and currently on the DL). Only 3B Nolan Arenado (below), and SS Trevor Story are young enough to build around. The rest are veterans, some of whom are having great seasons (CF Charlie Blackmon & 2B DJ LeMahieu), but will soon be too expensive and in decline. Another example of how poorly the Rockies spend their money is LF Carlos Gonzalez. In 2017: -1.3 WAR (so far) for $20 million. The Rockies are having a great season (by their standards), but don’t expect a repeat of this team’s success in 2018.

As for the rest of the NL, most fit into an amorphic mass of slightly-below-average, veteran-heavy teams including: the Marlins, Braves, Mets, Cardinals & Pirates. Competitively, all these teams are similar to the Brewers as explained above; too many holes in their roster and not enough organizational strength & money to fix them. The Pirates are a typical example. The have the stud in CF Andrew McCutchen (below), but not enough around him. The have some decent young starters, but not enough… I can see how that would be frustrating for a Bucs fan…

The Marlins are impossible to deal with, as long as this team is up for sale. Right now, owner Jeffery Loria (below with NBA star Dwayne Wade) is trying to exploit every advantage in the market to maximize the sale price for his Miami Marlins. That means retaining all valuable assets, so nothing of significant value is moving here anytime soon. This franchise was decimated in 2016 by bad trades, and the tragic death of ace RHP Jose Fernandez.

Padres Update:

The San Diego Padres are again the outliers among the second-division in the NL, but this time in a good way. They are by far the youngest team in MLB, and yet they aren’t the worst. In the spring, the Padres were universally picked by MLB ‘experts’ to end up with the worst record in baseball– ~66 wins projected by most analysts. They currently sit in 4th place in the NL West at 47-58. Their current .448 winning percentage translates into 72.5 wins over 162 games.

The Padres are last in OBP. They have scored only 400 runs, while allowing 533. Their Pythagorean W-L is 39-66, which means the Padres have over-played their W-L record by eight games– so far. Padres are 4-4 in extra innings, and 13-13 in one-run games. Good & bad teams typically split those contests 50-50, which means extreme luck hasn’t been a factor in this over-performance by the Padres.

The reason the Padres record is so much better than their numbers is leadership & coaching. Last season I stated that rookie manager Andy Green was already a top-5 MLB manager. He’s moved up another notch, or two since. Andy Green handled Cubs manager Joe Maddon on Anthony Rizzo’s cheap-shot slide into C Austin Hedges perfectly.

Hedges missed a few days with a thigh contusion, while Cubs 1B Rizzo wasn’t suspended by Joe Torre and MLB. Padres fans weren’t surprised by any of this. Andy Green handled it, by not retaliating. This made headlines as Joe Maddon, Anthony Rizzo and the rest of their supporters looked like a bunch of bush-league blow-hards. Honestly, I was surprised by Maddon’s obtuse commentary & apologetics, after the fact.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB_8-tZLabI

The Padres started the season with three Rule 5 picks on their 25-man roster. All three are still with the team, as SS/UT Allen Cordoba (Cardinals) and C Luis Torrens (Yankees) are earning significant playing time for Andy Green. RHP Miguel Diaz (Brewers) is on the 10-day DL with forearm tightness, and may be shut down for the season. In that event, he’ll only need < 2 weeks with the Padres in 2018, before he’s sent back down to the minors. The point is, all three Rule 5 picks are staying with the Padres, and they won’t lose anywhere close to 100 games, despite what the ‘experts’ proclaimed.

Padres GM AJ Preller signed 4 [!] free-agent starters on one-year contracts this past winter, for <$2M each. Trevor Cahill pitched well-enough to be flipped to the Royals with LHP Ryan Buchter (valuable set-up guy) and Brandon Mauer (useless). In return Preller got LHP Travis Wood to start the rest of 2017 and all of 2018 for $1.5 million, along with a few prospects. That’s called getting ahead of the winter free-agent pitching market, while adding depth to your system.

The Padres always presume they can improve a pitcher’s performance, because they have the best pitching coaching in Darren Balsley (above). LHP Clayton Richard and RHP Jhoulys Chacin have performed as expected; innings eaters who get pounded too often. Only RHP Jered Weaver completely busted, and is probably finished for his career. Three-out-of-four on free-agent starting pitchers is an outstanding return-on-investment.

This is a developmental year for the Padres, and a big part of that is keeping their young starters (RHP’s Luis Perdomo & Dinelson Lamet) healthy by limiting their innings. This goes for Perdomo in particular, who threw 146.2 innings as a Rule 5 rookie in 2016. In that sense, the innings absorbed by Richard & Chacin have helped the franchise immensely, making their contracts a tremendous value to the Padres.

AJ Preller (above) has achieved a stunning organizational turn-around since the end of 2015. New manager Andy Green and longtime ace pitching coach Darren Balsley have worked with Preller in this development of young talent at all their levels. The results are now starting to show in the majors, as the Padres aren’t as bad as everyone claimed and what’s more, they’re also getting better faster than most anticipated. The OBP & SLG they lack in their MLB lineup, along with waves of premium pitching talent, are in the pipeline. Player development, as well as injury management & prevention, will determine this franchise’s fate.

Dodgers & Nationals:

A few weeks after the Rizzo/Hedges slide controversy, Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts completely lost face in this incident, and was suspended one [!] game by MLB for shoving Andy Green as he was walking back to his dugout. Doc Roberts claimed he felt provoked by what Green had said during their discussion with the umpires.

Dodgers fans should be concerned over Dave Roberts’ volatility & decision-making under duress. It’s suspect at best. It’s easy to manage when everything is clicking, so Roberts looks good now and will probably be voted “Manager of the Year” by the sports-writing media. In reality, he’s not even Top-10, if that tells you anything about what you’re told.

The Dodgers’ post-season hopes depend (as always) on a LHP Clayton Kershaw, who is currently on the DL with a chronic back issue. They’ve got a ton of talent and a loaded farm system under GM Andrew Friedman, and have been the best team all season. They won the Yu Darvish sweepstakes, while retaining their top prospects, so its their pennant to win without mortgaging the future. Sent to Texas were 2B/OF Willie Calhoun, who was the Dodgers’ No. 4-ranked prospect, RHP A.J. Alexy (No. 17) and IF Brendon Davis (No. 27). Good deal for both sides.

The Washington Nationals will win the NL East, but their post-season prospects are dimming. Already righty starter Joe Ross has been lost to TJ. Ace RHP Stephen Strasburg is currently on the 10-day DL. Max Schertzer & Gio Gonzalez are holding the rotation together, but another major injury will likely doom their WS chances in 2017.

Nationals starters (and players) are hitting the DL with regularity again. How bad is it?  Veteran RHP Edwin Jackson is now in their rotation due to injury attrition. Meanwhile the Nationals needed relief pitching help more desperately than any other serious contender. They would have had to deal the best of what’s left in their farm system to acquire Brad Hand. Nat’s GM Mike Rizzo instead acquired A’s relievers lefty Sean Doolittle & veteran righty Ryan Madson, along with Twins closer Brandon Kintzler at the deadline. As a rule, quantity over quality doesn’t work, especially in the post-season.

Nationals manager Dusty Baker (above) is once again pushing to get his injured players back sooner, rather than later: “You’ve got to get them back soon enough to be sharp and effective in the post-season,” Baker said. “Because [if they’re] back … just to be back and not sharp, it’s going to be detrimental to us. But we’d love to have them back, as they’re my starters. I’m hoping that we kind of get them back one at a time in chronological order to help us.” [1]

All this rushing (and useless “hoping”?) with the Nationals ahead comfortably, holding a 13-game lead in the National League East! And people wonder how Dusty Baker wrecks so many arms?

In conclusion, the NL post-season will be wide open with the Cubs having the most complete roster & best leadership, while not necessarily being the best team in 2017. I object to the DH, so I’ll leave the AL discussion– until the World Series.

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Google’s Fake Searches

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What I outlined and predicted about the WSWS, was proven true a few days ago. I wrote in March: “By far the most dangerous online organization to the ruling class is wsws.org, the World Socialist Web Site. What deep state planners fear more than anything is a revolution from below. That is a decisive force, which they can not control. Therefore, a ruthless & highly-sophisticated misinformation & suppression campaign must be directed against this site, and any sympathizers.” [1]

That thesis was confirmed on July 27, 2017 when the WSWS published “New Google algorithm restricts access to left-wing, progressive web sites.” This was followed the next day with “Google rigs searches to block access to World Socialist Web Site,” which provides indisputable proof that Google is politically manipulated by capitalism’s paymasters & Black Hand.

Read “Does the WSWS write about Leon Trotsky? Not according to Google,” and try their suggested searches. The WSWS is a well-optimized & mobile friendly site. Huge strides were made in tagging (to improve site searchability) of their older articles during their 15th anniversary year in 2013, in which past articles were reviewed and yearly summaries were written by younger SEP writers. And yet Googling “Trotsky” gets the WSWS a first result on page 13!

The Fourth International (and Ric Size) can only do so much online until they run into capitalist suppression, and this is it. This is fascism, where free expression is censored & slandered, every second of every day. It’s just the precursor to physical violence & annihilation, which is what these sickheads really know & revel in. Trump is their authority (excuse) to use the most venomous attacks, as everything is now flowing from ignorance, fear & hate. Nothing good can come of this madness, and it must be checked with fierce & organized resistance– ASAP.

The only political party in the world that is fit for this task of leadership is the Socialist Equality Party (SEP), which is the US branch of the Fourth International, the political party founded by Leon Trotsky in Paris in 1938. A relentless campaign to expose Google is in order, but what’s needed even more is grassroots organizing, leafleting, and active engagement in the “real world” from supporters of a socialist revolution. This savage censorship of the truth, in the name of combating “fake news,” is just another attempt to throw poison in the eyes of the workers & youth of the world. For the suppression to be this blatant indicates the level of desperation in ruling political circles. This is how much they fear the truth.

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Orlando, FL & Gay Politics

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Orlando’s leading gay activist Billy Manes died yesterday, he was 45.  The cause of death hasn’t been released to the public as of this publication.  On Thursday (July 20, the day before his death), Manes’ husband Anthony Mauss said he had suffered “a serious health crisis.” [1]

The previous Sunday, Billy Manes announced on social media that he had been fired as editor-in-chief of Watermark.  Two years earlier, Manes had left Orlando Weekly (after a long run) to edit this online LGBTQ publication.

This was Billy Manes last Facebook post before his death:

July 16 at 10:04am · Orlando, FL ·

“I was effectively let go on Friday and it wasn’t easy and it wasn’t psychologically easy. I wanted to give Watermark the chance to break the news. Not sure why, but it was fair enough. Best to the future editor and please keep up up the work. I’llnfigure something new. I always do.”

The official eulogies have been declared:

Orlando Sentinel: “Billy Manes, a true original in Orlando History, will be remembered for his witty writing, distinctive style and activism for Orlando’s LGBTQ community.”

Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer (below) saluted Manes as “always a vibrant force of nature with a healthy dose of wit who loved Orlando and helped make our city fiercely unique.”

Orlando City Commissioner Patty Sheehan (below), praised Manes’ work as Watermark editor-in-chief in covering the Pulse nightclub attack last year.

Now it’s my turn. To speak truthfully here is considered inappropriate & beyond impolite, but I’m going to do it anyway.  Billy Manes was a second-rate talent, for a second-rate weekly publication, in a second-rate city.  It is a sick & sad commentary on the degradation of ‘official’ political discourse that Manes is praised by so many as one of Orlando’s finest artistic & activist voices. [2]

All this outpouring of media love & affection is transitory, as these charlatans have short attention spans and little aptitude for seeing what comes next. The city of Orlando was struck by a horrible terrorist act on June 12, 2016, and all that Billy Manes & Co. can come up with is rainbow flags! Not a single question or public inquiry as to the origin’s of Omar Mateen’s military ties, his father’s links to Afghanistan militias, etc….

Of course, all this leads into murky US Special Ops and covert intelligence action, which means “no reporting” in the mass media. Instead we get gay activism, as if ‘gay rights’ can be separated for anyone else’s rights?  The official line is: the Pulse nightclub massacre is to remain an exclusively “gay” issue until the end of capitalism.

The unlearned lesson here is that the struggles of the working classes everywhere must no longer be subordinated to nationalism & identity politics, which always leads into a dead-end. Feminism, black racialism & gay activism are all bourgeois constructs, meant to trap these identity groups and keep them within the confines of capitalism. The truth is, no freedoms & rights can be won for any of these groups, until they come together in class perspective under the banner of revolutionary socialism.

The working people of the world have an interest in seeing that everyone is free to live their lives, with a good education & job, in a manner that fulfills their happiness. Under capitalism, this has become a hopeless dream for far too many, and it’s manifesting itself in many horrible ways. The ongoing opium/painkiller epidemic in the US, is a statement on the failures of capitalism to provide even an illusion of prosperity to its working masses.

Those who spend their lives distorting this reality, by chasing celebrity culture and enriching themselves (monetarily and/or egotistically), deserve our contempt.

In death, a final balance sheet needs to be drawn and in the case of Billy Manes we have yet another liberal apologist, who had some talent, but chose a mostly fictional self-narrative over reality & hard facts.

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Autographs & the Memorabilia Market

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“Can I have your autograph?” That’s a deceptively simple question. Firstly, what is an autograph? It’s a person’s signature on something. Most people sign their names everyday in many different ways, without thinking much about it. As a practicing dentist, I’ve written my signature more times than I care to remember on insurance forms, lab instructions, prescriptions, doctor’s notes, etc. I’ve never had a patient or staff member insist on keeping that piece of paper for the value of my signature.

Then again, I’m not famous, so no one seeks my written signature for its inherent value. If I ever become famous, I will definitely join those who refuse to sign autographs. Oscar Wilde (below) once wrote, “The artist shouldn’t try to become more public, the public needs to become more artistic.” That is correct, so consider what that means and how it applies to autographs.

Autographs and other sports memorabilia collecting can be linked in origin to the baseball card industry, which revved up in the 1980’s and took off in the 1990’s. Before then, baseball cards (like autographs) were a mostly a childhood delight. Kids collect and trade stuff naturally, with sports heroes & other celebrities being among their favorites. Baseball cards have been around as long as baseball itself.

In 1952, Topps decided to sell baseball cards in packs, which led to a massive growth in their popularity. By the 1980’s, a number of new companies began producing baseball cards including Fleer, Donruss and Upper Deck and the market expanded considerably. Since 2000, there has been massive increase in speculation in this industry, attributable to an influx of new collectors with high disposable income. Much of this is comparable to what’s going on in the art world, with forgeries and dirty dealing being the norm.

Today, most signature seekers are actually professional autograph traders, who make their living by selling them, rather than keeping them as personal souvenirs. Celebrities aren’t stupid, and many have found their own ways to deal with this problem:

Basketball star Bill Russell (above), and actors Paul Newman & Greta Garbo all declined autograph requests in their days.

Actor Will Ferrell (above) mocks and taunts fans when they request his autograph. Makes you think twice before asking.

Talk show host Rosie O’Donnell (above) has refused to sign autographs for years, calling adult autograph seekers “sad.”  She’s correct.

Constantly overrun with requests, actor/comedian Steve Martin (above) years ago had business cards with his autograph pre-printed, or cards that read, “This certifies that you have had a personal encounter with me and that you found me warm, polite, intelligent and funny.”  Very creative.

Ex-Beatle Paul McCartney (above) announced in 2010 that he would no longer sign autographs while out, and said that “most people are very understanding because they understand privacy.”  Most do.

Here’s his former band mate, Ringo Starr two years earlier:

Professional golfer Jordan Spieth has recently commented on signing autographs. “We like to sign stuff for charity or for kids — and if you ask anybody universally it’s the same way, it’s just, they (professional autograph hustlers) frustrate us.”

Danica Patrick was recently videoed at Pocono after practice, trying to explain herself to a few merciless autograph hounds, who have no interest in anything except getting the goods for themselves:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OuFkdbAJo0

Bottom Line: No one (not even a handicapped kid) should ever expect an autograph from anyone. An autograph is a gift that a celebrity chooses to donate. Do you go up to other people (you don’t know personally) and ask them for a gift, and actually expect to receive it?  Do you interrupt people while they are working, expect them to do you a favor, and berate them if they don’t comply?  That’s completely selfish.  Athletes are competitors, which means they are wound tightly and they don’t take this kind of crap. When celebrities are provoked by seekers, you will get any of these above reactions, which are all justifiable.

Memorabilia is about making money, not the integrity of their product. And just what is their product, anyways? A signature. A card. A ball or jersey. It produces nothing in value, and is the very definition of a speculative bubble. Dealers, auction houses and industry “experts” talk openly about finding novice buyers, which are required to perpetuate this sham industry. As long as people invest into this, it will continue.

Third-party authentication (TPA) services grade cards and other memorabilia, for a fee. Like any other business, the idea is to make money, and they do that by pleasing their customers. This means authenticating known forgeries from ‘good’ customers. Autographs are commonly sold with certificates of authenticity (COA’s) and letters of authenticity (LOA’s), while trading cards use a grading system. COA’s, LOA’s, and grades are meant to assure the buyer that the signature or item is genuine.

The problem is the entire sports memorabilia and trading card industry is run by a few people with bad reputations and/or criminal records. Third-Party Authentication giants PSA/DNA and JSA have cornered the market as the official “experts” endorsed by the major sports and collectibles auction houses, and even the online auction giant eBay.

PSA/DNA’s lead authenticator, Steve Grad, has a spot on the History Channel’s hit show Pawn Stars as their ‘on-air expert’ for autographed materials. The TPA’s are advertised as the gold standard of an autograph industry fraught with fraud, deception and forgery. The FBI has claimed that over 50% of the signed collectibles in the marketplace are counterfeits [1].

Often the services that do the authentication are also the ones that own the property and are selling it, creating an obvious conflict-of-interest. Shills are routinely used in the auctions to make the prices go up. There is an entirely unregulated industry, full of hustlers & con men.

Industry pioneer Bill Mastro (above) formulated the TPA grading system to help protect himself and his fellow auctioneers. TPA’s have also shielded themselves from any liability by stating that their LOA’s are nothing more than an opinion and guarantee absolutely nothing. Mastro has acknowledged that he trimmed the world’s most valuable baseball card, the T206 Honus Wagner (below) once owned by NHL superstar Wayne Gretzky, greatly inflating its value.

Authors Michael O’Keefe and Teri Thompson present a strong case that the card was actually cut from a sheet of cards, trimmed and altered. It seems that too many people have too much to lose, if this was actually proven, so the facts are conveniently ignored. No owner will allow “The Card” to be removed from its protective case to be re-authenticated, as that would risk losing all it’s value. On October 1, 2016, “The Card” sold for $3.12M in a private auction.

For those not familiar with this story, Honus Wagner was the great shortstop for the Pittsburgh Pirates at the turn of the 20th century. The legend is Wagner objected to his likeness being used to promote tobacco use to children (baseball cards came in cigarette packs back then) and demanded the American Tobacco Company pull the card from the market. The other claim (from researchers) is that Wagner, who chewed tobacco himself and did advertisements for cigars, was actually just holding out for more money. Whatever the reason, only between 75 and 200 Wagner T206’s ever made it to the public, as compared to the “tens or hundreds of thousands” of T206 cards, over three years (1909-11) in sixteen brands of cigarettes, for any other player. There are only ~65 known Wagner T206’s left, and most are in poor condition. Here are a few examples:

The point is, whenever someone brings a ‘newly discovered’ Wagner T206 to the market, it is greeted with both excitement & skepticism. Most of the time they are proven as forgeries. The facts point towards the world’s most valuable baseball card most-likely also being a fake, and that doesn’t bode well for this industry in the long-term. The truth is, this sports memorabilia craze is like all the rest under American capitalism, in which lawlessness & unethical behavior dominate, in order to make money from nothing.

Final point of etiquette: Parents need to teach their kids that when they ask for a celebrity’s autograph, they are making a bargain for life. The celebrity is choosing to give a piece of him/herself to the fan. If it eventually gets sold, then the celebrity isn’t making a fan, but instead feeding the machine. When this happens over & over, celebrities get jaded. All celebrities monitor this nowadays.

The overall message on everything discussed above, is that the current set-up isn’t working for celebrities or the fans.  It’s only benefiting a thin layer of parasites who are ruining things for everybody else.  Most athletes will tell you that they enjoy signing autographs for charity, and especially for the kids. They do it for that look of surprise & joy that only comes from innocent eyes, and makes a fan for life. The problem of problems is that everything under capitalism has to make money, and it’s the bleeping money that ruins everything.

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