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Beer & Brats: Padres Hot Stove Discussion
The San Diego Padres have a strong military fanbase, and I love reading soldiers’ comments online, which typically go something like this:
“I’m in the Marines, and this team is what we call FUBAR’d…, this is what’s wrong…., this is what needs to be done…. BOOYAH!!!”
Rarely are the merits of these posts criticized or debated, and the poster often disappears for awhile; all of which I find fascinating.
It’s a very open & democratic forum, and generally laid-back with Padres fans. It’s a relief from being a Rays fan, having to deal with all the Red Sox/Yankees hyper-competitiveness. Here’s what I had to say about the Pads in their MLB forum this fall:
10-29-15: Padres name D-backs’ Green manager
Andy Green is energetic, has managerial experience in the minors, embraces sabermetirics, and is well-respected in the Diamondbacks organization. The San Diego Padres need to rebuild, so I like this hire. [posted on Facebook]
11-02-15: Padres move quickly to bring back Balsley
I too am relieved that Darren Balsley is staying. I wasn’t sure he’d stay with this mess in SD, but this is his home. It appears the Nationals are even worse off in their management situation with the Black/Baker fiasco. Balsley will help rebuild this pitching staff– he’s the best as so many have already pointed out. The fan support in this forum surely helped.
11-13-15: Kennedy, Upton reject qualifying offers
A.J. Preller wins another one for San Diego this week– every little bit helps. Kennedy isn’t worth more than $10/year; he & agent Scott Boras are banking on an overpay deal. We’ll see…
Deal Matt Kemp who had decent numbers in 2015, but needs to be in the AL where he can DH. Shields & BJ Upton are surely on the block too, but Kemp is the priority. So far, so good for Padres fans, the Kimbrel deal is the right idea. Keep adding depth to the farm system, and work on player development; that’s how the Royals, Astros & Cubs did it. No one really knows how any of these prospects are going to pan out. Smart GM’s look for prospects with high upside, and grab as many as they can get.
Note: Teams don’t keep their compensation pick if they re-sign their free agent. They would also have to forfeit the pick should they sign another qualifying free agent and not have a first-round pick to give up (either because they pick in the top 10, or because they sign more than one qualifying free agent and have previously surrendered their first-round selection).
These compensation picks currently sit at # 31 & #32. If the Padres don’t sign a qualifying-offer FA this off-season, these picks will end up in the low 20’s or high teens. They already have the #8 pick, so this will immediately add talent to a depleted system if Preller & Co. make good selections in the June draft. The Padres have historically had a terrible farm system, and this is how you fix it.
Preller has made his share of mistakes in his first year on the job, most noticeably the Matt Kemp trade. However he also stole Wil Myers, who can be a franchise player if kept healthy. Franchise players don’t grow on trees, and this organization is still reeling from losing Adrian Gonzalez, and then giving away Anthony Rizzo. Preller cleaned house and got rid of many assets that were largely fungible. Preller is obviously a stat guy, and his blind spot seems to be baseball tactics and in-game management. He needs to get at least one lefty in the rotation, an adequate (affordable) shortstop, and another LOOGY (Left-Handed One Out Guy) in the pen, so his new manager isn’t handcuffed like Black & Murph were in 2015.
In response to another fan on the board who disagreed with SD trading Trea Turner & Joe Ross for Wil Myers:
How about “acquired Wil Myers? For a 22-YO 2B who ‘hit’ .225/.295/.325 with the Nats in 2015 & a 22-YO potential 2/3 starter in Ross. 24-YO Myers has superstar upside, but he obviously has to stay healthy. His wrist injuries began in Tampa from diving for balls on their artificial turf. Diving for balls in CF last year didn’t help, which was Preller’s fault as much as Myers’. He’s a corner outfielder & stud prospect. It was a great trade for the Padres, and it’s been overlooked because the 2015 Padres were so badly put together.
How’d I do on the rest?
11-20-15: Padres announce Spring Training schedule
Below are the remaining off-season dates of which Padres fans should be aware. The Rule 5 draft is next, and it could be an opportunity for Preller to snag a prospect– depending on the talent available and their roster situation in 2016.
Rule 5 footnote: Organizations may also draft players from AA or lower to play for their AAA affiliates for $12,000; and may draft players from A teams or lower to play for their AA affiliates for $4,000. Most 12/4K picks never approach becoming MLB players, but serve as organizational filler which has value in that they help true prospects develop quicker, and with more success.
Dec. 7-10 — Winter meetings, Nashville, Tenn.
Dec. 10 — Rule 5 draft
2016
Jan. 7 — Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2016 announced (Trevor Hoffman)
Jan. 12 — Salary arbitration filing
Jan. 15 — Salary arbitration figures exchanged
Feb. 1-21 — Salary arbitration hearings
Feb. 18 — Voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players
March 1 — Mandatory reporting date
Any updates on the AFL, winter ball action, or any other Padres buzz are always welcomed by out-of-area fans. Thanks!
11-21-15: Henderson, Yount recount milestone moments
Pete Rose (24 seasons): .303/.375/.409, w/ 198 SB, 149 CS; Tim Raines (23 seasons): .294/.385/.425, w/ 808 SB, 146 CS. Rock was more valuable, and it’s a joke he isn’t in the HoF. Rose should obviously be in too, but that’s another discussion…
11-23-15: Open-minded Green embraces defensive shifts
“He’s open to any idea that’s going to help a team, help an organization get better,” Preller said. “He’s not looking at any idea or a particular statistic as being gospel. I think that’s something we share. You present an idea, he wants to hear it and then he wants to see how it works.”
The GM & manager are communicating, and on the same page. This already makes the Padres better than last season.
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Andy Green has managed in the minors, so he presumably knows how a roster needs to be constructed in order to win. Green needs to be in agreement with A.J. Preller, and vise-versa. That isn’t interfering, it’s called attempting to understand one another so they both can do a better job.
Old-school vs sabermetrics is a misnomer. Statistical analysis is meant to illuminate parts of the game that were traditionally overlooked or had gotten lost. Run production & run prevention are thought of much differently today, than they were 20 years ago. If you fall behind, you get left behind.
Moneyball critics always point to the fact the Oakland A’s under GM Billy Beane have never won (or even reached) the World Series. All that proves is that you need SOME payroll investment from ownership, in order to win it. The TB Rays were the same way, and it was maddening to root for them when team owner Stuart Sternberg didn’t care to invest. Many Rays fans (such as myself) quit the day they traded David Price, and not coincidentally GM Andrew Friedman & Joe Maddon left soon after.
Stats GM Theo Epstein joined the Red Sox in November 2003, and ended their Curse in less than a year, building a mini-dynasty in the process. That’s what happens when you combine a more-than-adequate payroll with moneyball. Ask any true blue Brew Crew fan, “Which do you want: beer or brats?” and they will ALL correctly answer, “Both!” It’s the same way with old-school & sabermetrics.
11-20-15: Report: McGwire in talks for Padres’ bench coach job
Mark McGwire would be an inspired selection for bench coach. He was a power hitter who knew the strike zone. See how much more valuable he is, over a contemporary 1B who didn’t control it as well:
Mark McGwire (16 seasons) .263/.394/.588 1626 H 1317 BB
Cecil Fielder (13 seasons) .255/.345/.482 1313 H 693 BB
They both could mash, and PEDs surely inflated McGwire’s .588 SLG%, but the ability to take a walk is a baseball skill which big Cecil lacked– hurting his value.
It’s Mac’s career .394 OBP that truly separates him as a HoF-level performer.
Mark McGwire acted honorably during the PED show trials of 2005, by quite correctly refusing to answer whether or not he had ever used PEDs– as any answer would have put him in legal jeopardy. He told the committee, “I will use whatever influence and popularity that I have to discourage young athletes from taking any drug that is not recommended by a doctor. What I will not do, however, is participate in naming names and implicating my friends and teammates.”
None of the players were granted immunity in exchange for testimony, which would have allowed them to speak freely. Instead of dealing with the public health crisis of PED usage in young athletes, the congressional hearing cynically entitled “Restoring Faith in America’s Pastime” was an exercise in bipartisan political grandstanding. Rafael Palmiero (lying then finger pointing) & Sammy Sosa (pretending he didn’t understand English) truly disgraced themselves; but no one topped Bud Selig. The commissioner of the Steroid Era, in a snivelling & gutless performance, repeatedly claimed “no knowledge” or was “unable to recall” over a decade’s worth of overwhelming evidence of widespread PED use in MLB. More than anyone else, Allan Huber “Bud” Selig is responsible for MLB’s PED era, which still persists today.
Mark McGwire confessed his steroid use in 2010, with contrition. He is a proud, yet humble man who burns for redemption. New manager Andy Green & hitting coach Alan Zinter are inexperienced at the MLB level, which can be a problem with veteran players. Big Mac’s presence in the dugout & around the hitting cage would be an asset for the Padres, commanding respect from the players, while not challenging Green’s authority. I believe if he is given a fair chance, he will act with integrity & work his butt off to help the Padres achieve their goal of finally winning a World Series. That’s all a fan can ask for.
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Open Letter on the Padres from an outsider’s perspective:
An argument can be made, that the only season the Padres had a true ace was in 1998. That was the only season the Padres had Kevin Brown, and unfortunately they ran into one of the best teams ever in the World Series. Jake Peavy had four seasons of ace-level pitching in San Diego, and is the best career starting pitcher the franchise has ever had. Who is #2? It’s a toss-up between Andy Benes and Andy Ashby.
The franchise all-time MVP pitcher, measured by WAR is closer Trevor Hoffman. The Padres have been in existence since 1969 and their franchise 5-man rotation leaders by IP is: Eric (Win, Lose or) Show, Randy Jones, Peavy, Ed Whitson and Benes; which clearly reveals an Achilles heel that has existed since inception. The Padres must develop (and retain) better starting pitching, or it will never win a World Series.
Another organizational Achilles heel is their failure to recognize the talent within. Consider these players: Dave Winfield (left as FA), Ozzie Smith (traded after 4 seasons), and Roberto Alomar (about to turn 23, and by far the best player in that deal). In 1992 young 3B Gary Sheffield was handed to the Padres by Selig’s Brewers. He became an overnight star, then was shipped to the Marlins who won the WS with him in 1997. San Diego got Trevor Hoffman in the deal, but Sheffield (22 seasons, .292/.393/.514) was worth much more, PED arguments aside. Hoffman is a HoFer because you need a closer, but his overall value is limited by his 1098.1 career IP. For comparison, Tom Glavine (Braves) had 4413.1 IP. More game time means more value towards winning.
Dealing 1B Adrian Gonzalez was another deathblow to a Padres competitive window. He would have been Señor Padre at the end of his HoF career, if they had kept him. Organizations typically don’t recover from that, especially when they squander the trade’s centerpiece by sending 1B prospect Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs for Andrew Cashner. Cash definitely has good stuff, with 2/3 upside if he can figure it out & stay healthy, but who knows how good Rizzo will be? He was age 25, hitting .278/.387/.512 in 701 PA in 2015.
Only RF Tony Gwynn (20 seasons: .338/.388/.459) and Trevor Hoffman (18 seasons: 2.87 ERA) stand out as HoF-level career Padres, and that’s just not enough to win consistently in 47 seasons.
This is the legacy new GM A.J. Preller inherits, so long-time fans (who are understandably frustrated from decades of incompetence) need to cut him some slack. He’s had some missteps, but he’s also proven a quick study. Let’s face it, this entire organization needed an enema. Much detritus has been flushed as the Padres start anew, hopefully with better planning, scouting, coaching, and eventually players. A winning philosophy combines the best of ALL baseball thinking, as this game is too vast to ignore either its historical lessons or its recent innovations.
As far as team president Mike Dee and owner Ron Fowler go, their job is to provide Preller with the necessary payroll, while staying out of the day-to-day operations. The mantra with GM Andrew Friedman while he was in TB was always “trust in the process,” meaning if you are doing things correctly you will eventually see good results. The Rays were a moneyball franchise that never won it all, because they were hamstrung by ownership– competing short-stacked in the AL East, always forced to play for future seasons. “Pile up enough tomorrows and you’ll end up with a bunch of empty yesterdays,” said Robert Preston in The Music Man (1962).
In this era, a MLB team needs a payroll of at least $100-120 million to win it all. Ownership supplies the money, so obviously it is let in on plan, but it shouldn’t be allowed to meddle. If Preller eventually needs a boost in payroll to acquire a player who will put the Padres over the top (as the KC Royals did in 2015 by acquiring Johnny Cueto at the trade deadline), then ownership is obliged to step up. Mike Dee’s job from a baseball standpoint is simply to hire & fire the GM. As team president, his job should mostly focus on revenue acquisition from media, ticket sales, promotions, etc… A winning organization make his job easier.
Padres fans need to be patient, and die-hards understand this all-too-well. It’s a long off-season to go, but don’t have any winning expectations for the Padres until 2018, at the earliest. Obviously things will change as players get traded, new prospects develop, etc… All we can do as fans is understand the process, and speak our voices in forums such as these. Successes need to be understood objectively, and are also the best opportunity for fans to express their emotions. Organizational failures should be pointed out and discussed analytically and rationally, avoiding anger & hysterics– which don’t help. It also doesn’t help to list random, useless stats as an argument. All non-pitchers can be precisely measured using the triple slash stats, AVG/OBP/SLG. If it is a season comparison, provide plate appearances & player age; for careers, provide the number of seasons played and defensive position. Defense is now accurately determined, with advanced metrics replacing traditional errors, put-outs and assists. Pitchers are accurately valued using ERA, IP and K/BB ratios– season & career.
All this is a reasonable fan contract. The more Padres fans get on board with this program, the easier it is for GM A.J. Preller to do his job. The STL Cardinals are a great example of an organization that has everyone in sync, from ownership down to the bat boys/ball girls. Their organization & fans understand when to let an old star go (Albert Pujols), and who to retain (Matt Holliday). They develop their own position players and pitchers. That’s why they are consistently competitive, and win their share of World Series. If this is indeed the model Preller is trying to build, then it deserves fan support.
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2016 MLB HoF Ballot
I don’t have an official vote, but I do have an official opinion.
My 2016 HoF Ballot— Newbies: Ken Griffey Jr. (Mariners), Trevor Hoffman (Padres) and Billy Wagner (Astros).
Holdovers: Tim Raines (Expos), Barry Bonds (Pirates), Roger Clemens (Red Sox), Mike Piazza (Dodgers), Jeff Bagwell (Astros), Edgar Martinez (Mariners) and Mike Mussina (Orioles).
Extra selection because it’s needed here: Curt Schilling (Phillies).
Alan Trammell, Jeff Kent, Gary Sheffield, and Larry Walker all deserve serious consideration.
Players now only get 10 years on the ballot, with grandfather exemptions for Lee Smith (14th) & Trammell (15th). Raines is in his 9th year.
How do guys like Randy Winn & David Eckstein even get on the ballot?
Full ballot at: http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2016.shtml
The HoF selection process is totally FUBAR’d, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Hoffman & Wagner don’t get in this year.
Tim Raines (23 seasons) .294/.385/.425, w/ 808 SB, 146 CS
Pete Rose (24 seasons) .303/.375/.409, w/ 198 SB, 149 CS
As for Sosa, McGwire, etc., I’ve already discussed my thoughts on the steroid era & the HoF, and they haven’t changed.
It is extremely narrow-minded & unfair to blame only the players for the PED-era. Tony La Russa was part of the 2014 HoF class, and deservingly so; but everyone seems to ignore the fact that he was the manager of the Oakland A’s featuring Jose Canseco & Mark McGwire. Canseco is universally acknowledged as the player who brought steroids into MLB, and McGwire was his first protégé. [1] La Russa has a law degree and is very intelligent, so he certainly knew what was going on. Why no shame or HoF ban on La Russa?
Same goes for all the other managers, coaches & training staff, the GM’s, the owners & their commissioner. What about agents who encourage their clients to juice in order to produce better numbers, which translates into more $$$? Nothing tops the hypocrisy of the media & the ‘fans’ who today heap scorn at select star players, for making them dupes; all while ignoring their own failure to investigate and ask questions. All this aided & abetted MLB PED usage, so claiming ignorance rings false; as steroids had been rampant in Olympic competition & the NFL for decades, so it wasn’t anything new to sports.
The point is: all the hits, home runs, strikeouts, wins & championships have been celebrated, and count forever in MLB history. The feats of the PED-players indelibly leave their mark in the record books and there is no expunging them. Sports fans need to absorb the valuable lessons of this tainted epoch, which include: the limits of chemical science, ethics, and the all-powerful corrupting influence of money. If baseball fans can get to this, then they may actually (one day) get a HoF which represents its best players.
Last remark on Pete Rose: He’s paid his dues, make him eligible & he’s in. No use honoring dead heroes. Old-guard MLB elite stiffed a deserving & long-suffering Ron Santo (Cubs) as he was dying of diabetes, and it was despicable. Pete Rose (Reds) is getting old…
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College Radio Promotional Campaign
To the station manager/program directors/dj’s:
This is alternative rock. All tracks are FCC clean. Best alt-radio tracks include: #1 Spirit of the Road, #3 Ridiculous, #5 Anna Rex, and #11 Money Bug.
Questions/comments: ricsize@gmail.com or phone/text 352-xxx-xxxx.
Thanks for your attention!!
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Promotional copies were mailed to these U.S. college radio stations:
KEXP 90.3FM
113 Dexter Avenue North
Seattle, WA 98109
WUNH Music Director
University of New Hampshire
83 Main St, Durham NH, 03824
KRUI-FM Music Director
379 IMU
Iowa City, IA 52242
KALX-FM
26 Barrows Hall # 5650
Berkeley, CA 94720-5650
…><><>< Updated 11-17-15: In rotation at this link: http://kalx.berkeley.edu/programs/next-big-thing …><><><><
WVUA 90.7 FM Music Director
Box 870170
Tuscaloosa, AL 35487
WRTC Radio Station Manager
300 Summit St.
Hartford, CT 06106-3100
WUSB Radio
Attn: Music Director
2nd Floor Union Bldg
Stony Brook University
Stony Brook, NY 11794-3200
KSCU Student Radio
Santa Clara University
500 El Camino Real, #3207
Santa Clara , CA 95053
Attn: Music Department
KVSC 88.1 FM
Attn: Programming
720 Fourth Avenue South
27 Stewart Hall, SCSU
Saint Cloud, MN 56301-4498
WITR 89.7 FM
32 Lomb Memorial Drive
Rochester, NY 14623-0563
WZRD Radio
5500 N. St. Louis Ave
Chicago, IL 60625-4699
ATTN: Music Director
WMSE 91.7
c/o Erin Wolf /Music Department
1025 N Broadway
Milwaukee, WI 53202
Attn: Music Directors, WGTB
432 Leavey Center, Georgetown University
Washington, DC 20057
WVFS Tallahassee
c/o Music Director
420 Diffenbaugh
Tallahassee, Florida
32306-1550
WKDU 91.7 FM
3210 Chestnut St
Philadelphia, PA 19104
KVRX Student Radio
P.O. Box D
Austin, TX 78713
KZSC Radio– Rock Director
UC Santa Cruz, 1156 High St.
Santa Cruz, CA 95064
KAOS Music Dept.
The Evergreen State College
CAB 104
2700 Evergreen Parkway NW
Olympia, WA 98505
WKNC 88.1 FM
Campus Box 8607
343 Witherspoon Student Center
Raleigh, NC 27695
KPSU Attn: Lanny Lieu
PO BOX 751-KPSU/VG
Portland, OR 97207
WOO 91 (WCWS-FM)
Lowry Center – 1189 Beall Avenue
Wooster OH 44691
92 WICB
118 Park Hall
Ithaca College
Ithaca, NY 14850
WSBU-FM
Drawer O
St. Bonaventure, NY 14778
WERS
Music Director
120 Boylston St.
Boston, MA 02116
WPRK
1000 Holt Ave #2745
Winter Park, FL 32789
A promo copy was also sent for press coverage to:
Orlando Weekly
Attn: Ashley Belanger
16 W. Pine St.
Orlando, FL 32801
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Here is the proof of mailing:
These stations were hand-picked, and are probably the best chance Electrified! has of being played on the air. If you are a fan & college radio listener, feel free to show your support by calling in a request. Any stations that add tracks from Electrified! to their rotation will be credited on this site.
Thank you!!
Ric Size/Eric Meeker
President, Infinitelink Records LLC
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Modern U.S. Election History
Constitutional requirements to be eligible for the U.S. presidency:
1.) Be a native-born U.S. citizen, or born abroad to at least one parent who was a U.S. citizen at the time of birth.
2.) Be at least 35 years of age.
3.) Have lived in the U.S. for at least 14 years.
Starting just from this criteria, there are plenty of everyday people who are better write-in candidates than any of this flotsam pictured below :
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John F. Kennedy (D) won a narrow victory over incumbent VP Richard Nixon (R) in 1960, becoming the youngest person to be elected president. He was 43 years old when he was inaugurated.
JFK was assassinated in November 1963, most-likely by a CIA/ deep-state cabal that used Lee Harvey Oswald as a patsy. [1]
This right-wing coup directly preceded the escalation of U.S. dirty wars in Southeast Asia, along with increased FBI surveillance and police activity against its citizens at home.
Albert Thomas (D) was a congressman in Texas for 29 years, credited with bringing the Johnson Space Center to Houston.
Thomas is infamously pictured below, winking to LBJ after his Air Force One inauguration, with a grieving Jacqueline Kennedy in the foreground; lending proof to a vast military-intelligence conspiracy in the JFK assassination:
Significant political shifts by the ruling class are always to the right. Political reaction is triggered by popular reformist surges which are always perceived as a threat to ruling stability; and therefore must be beheaded, stifled, and beaten back with a vengeance.
A more-recent example of reaction in political history was in 1992, when the Democratic party was able to ride a wave of youthful discontent from 12 years of Reagan/Bush as Bill Clinton (D) handily defeated incumbent George H.W. Bush to win the Oval Office. This was followed by a Republican counter-attack in 1994, led by Southern Baptist congressman Newt Gingrich (R-Ga):
Bill Clinton was endlessly witch-hunted during both terms by hard-line Republicans, and the 42nd U.S. president was ultimately impeached by the House of Representatives on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice on December 19, 1998– for lying under oath about an extramarital affair. This first-ever impeachment of a U.S president is best understood historically as a blatant attempt by political conservatives to overturn the results of the 1992 & 1996 elections.
The theft of the 2000 U.S. presidential election was the culmination of a ruling class coup against the American people, as votes for Democratic party nominee Al Gore in Florida were ordered by the U.S. Supreme Court to remain uncounted. Many votes were unable to be counted or miscounted due to electronic voting machine errors, discrimination at the polling stations, and intentionally confusing ballots; the most infamous being the butterfly ballots from Palm Beach County, Florida– shown below:
An army of lawyers, party hacks and goon squads were quickly organized by the Republican party machinery to descend on Tallahassee, FL in order to tip the outcome to Bush:
On December 7-8, the Florida Supreme court listened to arguments from both sides and finally ruled for an immediate recount:
The U.S. Supreme Court then immediately stepped in, halting the tabulation of uncounted ballots, freezing Katherine Harris’ certification of a 537-vote margin in favor of George W. Bush.
On December 12, the U.S. Supreme court ruled in Bush v Gore that votes could no longer be counted due to a fictional constitutional technicality, thus handing Florida’s 20 electoral votes and the U.S. presidency to Bush/Cheney.
The Democratic party registered a mild protest, then vacated any defense of democratic rights, including the right to vote in Al Gore’s concession speech:
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Electronic voting should be monitored by all participants, and video evidence of voting machine irregularities is a valuable document in defense of democratic rights. Watch this video below from 2012, as a voter tries to check Barack Obama (D), but the machine insists on registering a vote for Mitt Romney (R).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzNALjzvuWw
Manipulation of ballot counting now appears to be the norm in presidential politics. The 2004 Edison-Mitofsky national exits polls predicted very different results than the official presidential election results. Bush won the official results by 2.5%, while exit polls predicted a Kerry victory nationally by 3% – a whopping 5.5% difference.
State exit polls predicted a Kerry victory in four states that Bush won – Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada – and a virtually even race in Florida, which Bush officially won by 5%.
The difference between the exit polls and the official results were statistically significant (outside the margin of error) in Ohio and Florida. In Ohio, Kerry lost officially by 2.5%, while winning the exit poll by 4.2%– a difference of 6.7%. Winning either Ohio or Florida would have meant an electoral victory for John Kerry. [2]
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This is how political election spending has evolved since 1990:
Since 2010, Super PAC money rules the campaigns [3]. The graph below shows the popular reaction to the Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission Supreme Court decision; allowing unlimited individual, corporate, and union contributions into election campaigns:
A Gallup poll conducted Oct. 3-6, 2013, revealed 60% of Americans say the Democrat/Republican parties do such a poor job of representing the American people, that a third major party is needed. Only 26% believed the two major parties adequately represent Americans. [4]
Over the decades, state lawmakers from both major parties have developed stringent ballot access requirements to discourage third-party candidates and voter participation in the electoral process. The three largest minor U.S. political parties as of April 2015 are listed below. In reality, they are all just funnels & safety valves for either the Democrats or Republicans:
Libertarian Party: Founded in 1971: conservative (Republican) policy positions including lowering corporate taxes, allowing people to “opt-out” of Social Security, abolishing welfare, etc…
Green Party: Founded sometime in the 1980-90’s, through a series of fits & spasms; this Democratic party off-shoot promotes identity politics– feminism, LGBT rights, and anti-racism; along with greenwashed-for-capitalism versions of environmentalism, non-violence and social justice.
Constitution Party: Republican branch, established in 1991 and originally called the U.S. Taxpayers’ party; they believe the United States is a Christian nation and its moral compass should be the Bible.
The extreme right-wing Tea Party movement emerged in the wake of Ron Paul’s failed 2008 presidential campaign to win the Republican nomination, which eventually went to John McCain. (R-Ariz). Ron Paul is a two-time Republican presidential candidate, and the presidential nominee of the Libertarian Party in the 1988. Paul has been characterized as a kook by his colleagues, as well as the “intellectual godfather” of the Tea Party movement. [5]
Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) remains the Tea Party’s iconic figure:
Donald Trump is whom she most identifies with politically:
According to Richard Winger— editor of Ballot Access News and an expert in the field — there are probably fewer than half a dozen minor parties that will qualify for the presidential ballot in more than five states. “It will be Democrats; Republicans; Libertarian; Green; Constitution; Party for Socialism and Liberation; Justice and Socialist Workers Party; and no others, probably. The Socialist Party has a remote chance of also getting on as many as 5 states.” [6]
Anyone planning on going to the polls on November 8, 2016, should know that due to the Electoral College, voting for president only matters in “swing” states:
The red & blue states are already decided, and/or have too few electoral votes to be of significant value. Once the primaries are over, virtually all the campaigning will be concentrated in the swing states, shown in beige above.
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The truth is, none of the above-mentioned political parties represent the vast majority of Americans who work for a living, and are mostly struggling to make ends meet. Voting for (or lending any other form of support to) this sick farce only perpetuates the problem, which is the capitalist system itself. All these parties and their candidates represent & defend capitalism (with its program of war & austerity) to the bitter end.
Abstention from this demented charade, or writing-in your own candidate, are the only voting options that makes sense for the working masses. In the end, the workers of the U.S. (and the world) will have to form their own independent political party, finally giving a voice to their interests, as well as the greater needs of human society. This political program will have to be socialist & revolutionary in nature, in order to be successful.
Meat Puppets @ Will’s Pub
Meat Puppets played at Will’s in Orlando last night– supersonic loud!!
This is still an amazing band that any rock music fan should see– they tour everywhere.
Their best records were the SST-label releases in the 1980’s, and while their live performance rests heavily on that catalog, the Meat Puppets still make interesting music and play with hypnotic intensity.
Their lineup now includes (Curt’s son) Elmo on guitar, and the impressive beats of Shandon Sahm.
Cool footnote: Shandon is the son of Doug Sahm.
Away…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Questions for U.S. Presidential Candidates
Since the spring of 2015, Democrats & Republicans have begun jockeying for the next US presidency, and there is still over a year before voting on November 8, 2016. As of yet, nothing serious has been discussed by any of these hopefuls– call it a severe case of the Emperor’s New Clothes.
Here is a list of questions that people should ask, since they won’t ever be brought up by the corporate-controlled media which manages this deranged circus. These queries are then answered with an honesty & directness that is unheard of in official political discourse.
Q: What is being done to end this bogus ‘war on terror?’
Nothing. The US military invaded Afghanistan in October of 2001, in response to 9/11; and has been ravaging & terrorizing this part of the world ever since. The latest highlighted atrocity is the willful bombing of a Doctors Without Borders hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan– killing 22, including 12 medical personnel. This is a war crime by any definition.
Photo above by Andrew Quilty
Q: If you are a candidate who insists on maintaining (or increasing) troop levels in the Middle East, with the continued indiscriminate use of violence on the population as a whole; how do you not consider yourself a war criminal?
It is politically incorrect to compare today’s fascists with yesterday’s Nazis. Violence abroad and attacks on democratic rights at home are two sides of the same coin. Police violence against the poor of all races is the domestic extension of this foreign policy.
Q: Why do all Dems/Reps support law enforcement when they murder innocent civilians?
The truth is, Dems/Reps support police/military violence against the American workers because it has increasingly becoming the only way to maintain the current levels of social inequality. The US social safety net has been shredded by decades of budget cuts, so the jackboot of the ruling class is now used to control mass discontent.
Q: How can a campaign that raises so much Super PAC money respond to the needs of ordinary working people who can’t afford to donate such sums?
To ask the question is to answer it. Politicians are bought & paid for, long before the voters go to the polls. The only representation that goes on in Washington is done by high-powered lobbying groups, representing big capital.
Q: What about global warming?
No capitalist candidate wants to seriously address this problem. Unplanned industrialization has led mankind into the downward spiral of climate change, with potentially disastrous consequences. Capitalists are only concerned with this quarter’s profits. This important question, which affects the future of everyone on this planet is always ignored or marginalized by mainstream politicians. They have no answer, because in fact, they represent the problem.
Q: What about the risk of nuclear war with Russia and/or China?
That’s a classified secret. All foreign policy is strictly controlled & monitored by the Pentagon & CIA, with no public input.
Q: Why does Donald Trump get so much press?
Donald Trump is a reactionary bigot. His role in this election cycle is to push all discourse to the right– and down into the muck. The corporate media has fully participated in this degraded celebration of ignorance and personal wealth.
Q: Is there a candidate who can give a fair definition of socialism?
Bernie Sanders (Democrat) is the pseudo-socialist; he supports militarism abroad and an anti-immigration policy at home– which is the polar opposite of socialism. Socialism is the revolutionary transformation of society from private ownership of wealth (capitalism), into public ownership of the means-of-production, via a worker’s revolution. The major candidates and their philistine lapdogs in the media have likely never read Karl Marx, or any other classical Marxist– including V.I. Lenin or Leon Trotsky.
Q: Will my vote count?
Probably not. Elections are manipulated by the puppet-masters who fund campaigns and control the media. The election of a U.S. president can’t be left up to the population, as they may make the ‘wrong’ choice; therefore biased media coverage and electronic voting manipulation will be decisive in determining the next presidency.
Q: So who will get the nominations and eventually the presidency?
The candidates who raise the most money. Hillary Clinton (Democrat) and Jeb Bush (Republican) have the most cash & machinery in place to win (or if necessary, steal) an election.
Q: That sounds like more of the same garbage, what other options are there for working people?
Socialism or barbarism.
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Fan Message #75
Thanks to all of you who have downloaded, enjoyed & shared the mp3s from Electrified! At this point we have still received ZERO press, and have not been offered any venue in which to perform. We’re hopeful this will change soon, but we are not holding our breath.
It is YOU, the fans who truly make it happen. The early response to Electrified! has been sensational, as the number of visits to the site (and downloads!) has jumped dramatically. Anytime you share the songs or direct someone to our site, it helps. If you really love the music & the message– then keep doing this!!
We have just uploaded the entire album onto Spotify, iTunes, Rhapsody, I Heart Radio, etc…. and it should proliferate completely within a week. We don’t expect fans to pay for it (especially when we already have it FREE on this site), but it does help us with distribution & promotion. This is how most people (kids) find new music these days, as the Internet is new radio. Superfans will add us to their playlists, share on social media, forums & blogs, etc…
At this point, as artists, we have done (and will continue to do) all we can to distribute this music as widely as possible. The anti-capitalist themes of this art will continue to keep us blacklisted from corporate-owned media & venues. We leave it up to music lovers everywhere to decide the merits of this art. If you are among those who passionately love this music, then become part of its success. This revolution doesn’t happen without your participation!
Thank you again for all the love & support!!
RicSize/TomP
Electrified! FREE Download, Notes & Lyrics
Download ELECTRIFIED!
Credits:
Tom Pearce: percussion, backing vocals
Craig Roy: bass
Bill Pelick: lead guitar, bass
Jessy Lynn Martens: violin, backing vocals
Rachel Decker: chanteuse
RS: vocal, guitar, bass, harmonica
Recorded at Jay Stanley Productions in Apopka, FL; summer/fall 2013
Produced by TomP
Cover photo is a video still shot by Susan Cameron; layout & artwork by TomP/RS
All tunes Published & Copyrighted: No Cliché Songs/ Infinitelink Records 2015
Electrified! is the soundtrack to this unfinished film:
mp3/blogs from Electrified!
No one buys CDs anymore; the mp3/blog is a self-invented format upgrade– discussed fully here.
All tunes individually credited on their mp3/blog link.
mp3 blog link
Spirit of the Road The Spirit of the Road
Schooldaze The Circus of Dr. Lao & the SOL
Ridiculous The NBA: I Can’t Watch this Game
Atheist Psalm What is Zionism & Anti-Semitism?
Anna Rex Modelling as Art
Old Friends Action Cinema: Keepin’ it Real
Tip of the Cap What is Grunge?
Just Because Why Marxism?
Listen to the Woman Understanding Men & LieSpotting
Brothers Children of Alcoholics
Moneybug Zombieland Redux
Kararak Plutocracy & Marxism
More Like Us? John Lennon: Working Class Hero
ELECTRIFIED! LYRICS
SPIRIT OF THE ROAD
Twin-cam sixteen valve FI
Sunroof down with the crankin’ hi-fi
Out on the road up on I-95
No room to pass only two lanes wide
With the air-bags off no cruise control
Carburetor’s blown check the manifold
Rain pourin’ down at twelve at night
Battery’s dead got no headlights
With my baby by my side it’s such a relief
We’ve got wind in our hair we’ve got bugs in our teeth
At 110 I’m losing my nerve
Suspension is shot and we’re starting to swerve
Six hours on the road and I’m starting to freak
Pull over for gas and to take a leak
Need and oil change the cylinder’s stuck
It’s been fifty thousand miles and we’re pushin’ our luck
Call AAA and get the tow truck here
Brake line’s gone can’t power steer
With three flat tires and a spare in the trunk
Oughta strip it for parts and sell it as junk
That’s my fuel-injected hotrod driving fast around Deadman’s Curve
Road rage behind don’t tailgate me
Rearview check another SUV
Those US cars look sick I note
Guzzle too much gas and drives like a boat
Loaded with gadgets they’ve got all the toys
Expensive options make too much noise
Japanese cars are better for me
Reliably built for efficiency
My Toyota Tacoma she’s a haulin’ machine
My Honda Accord runs super clean
My Toyota Corolla she’s a mini-jet rocket
When she gets up to speed you just can’t stop it
That’s my fuel-injected hotrod driving fast around Deadman’s Curve
MORE LIKE US?
Are there more like us?
Someone you trust
To show you some guts
Are there more like us?
Song of youth, make it rhyme, rock & roll music right in time
Contagious joy infects my soul, I’m in love with rock and roll
Are there more like us?
Show us your stuff
We’re calling your bluff
Do you have enough?
For when things get rough
KARARAK
July 1, 2002
Out of the night their gunships flew
Fifty women and children mowed down that day
By Uncle Sam and his Green Berets
In God We Trust defend our cause
On Eagle’s wings and imperialist claws
Who pulls the strings? We cannot say
Of our Special Forces and CIA
Johnny’s remains were laid to rest
They pinned a medal where he had a chest
How many more must die this way
For the Stars & Stripes of the USA?
OLD FRIENDS
Today is a good day for and old friend to slip away
Promises that we keep, promises we just make
An instinct hard to find a habit that’s hard to break
Today is a good day for an old friend to slip away
An old friend calls me up asks me who I was
Someone he once knew someone she once loved
A dream lost in the past a forgotten point of view
Someone who holds on someone I outgrew
On what I rely it’s just a crutch
If less is more then I’m too much
Who I am is hard to know
This cool facade is just a show
That stays too long when it should go
Living high means sinking low
RIDICULOUS
The ridiculous nature of US life
For most of the people it’s hardship and strife
This hourly grind for our daily bread
We keep falling behind we can’t get ahead
With bumper to bumper everyday
It’s hard to believe we’re living this way
Rush hour crunch in sweltering heat
Drizzling rain freezing cold sleet
This constant rat race is unpaid labor
Why doesn’t it count as work in your favor?
And when you get home there’s a TV to face
To reinforce values put you in your place
That it’s money and power and beauty and fame
And if you don’t have this then you’re not in the game
Creativity and talent they don’t want any here
Too hard to control it’s hype that they cheer
So the new season’s line-up is more pabulum for you
Some really weak stuff it’s the best they could do
So sit with your Friends, Seinfeld and Ed
American Idol live it all in your head
Because you don’t have a life and you’re going nowhere
And you forgot how to think so you don’t even care
Ridiculous/Quit
In central Florida I’m tellin’ y’all
Doc River’s team could not get a call
Heart & Hustle did not mean a thing
It’s size and strength that gets the ring
So the bigger you are the harder you hit
The more that you win well that’s about it
Shaquille O’Neal bull-rush to the hoop
Lacking the skill to set up and shoot
At the charity stripe even money he’ll brick it
Painful to watch for c-notes a ticket!
It’s a wrestling match down in the paint
Grabbing and holding pretty it ain’t
Unwritten rules just part of the game
It’s one of those things no one can explain
How veteran players use all the tricks
To maintain advantage the whole league’s a fix
Bills pile up so you can’t pay the rent
You’re throw in the street to live in a tent
Credit card balance stuffed to the limit
Twenty five percent well who can afford it?
So pawn all the chairs and rummage the table
US economy is highly unstable
The American Dream has bitten the dust
It’s all a big lie In God We Trust
When pension funds and retirement savings
Are stolen and looted for capitalist cravings
A shrug of the shoulders it’s out of our hands
The invisible market a shift of the sands
The working people get only contempt from above
The ruling elite incapable of love
It’s time to organize the laboring classes
An independent perspective of militant masses
To end the corruption in this critical hour
With socialist goals of seizing the power
Because the whole capitalistic system is…
BROTHERS
Two boys from the same home
Raised in the country where the sweet corn’s grown
With baseball games and snowball fights
And flashlight tag of summer nights
So long ago as brothers and friends
In our tree fort and on our bikes
From joy and laughter two brothers start
How did it happen we grew apart?
We had a father with a bottle of gin
Became addiction killed the man within
And all that was left became bitterness and shame
And the roles we played in a twisted game
I played the hero because I came first
Born to succeed with obsessive thirst
But all that guilt became such a cost
For trying to save a family lost
As the scapegoat you took the blame
For an affliction we could not name
That hurt and anger which pushed you away
Remains deep inside up to this day
November wind blows through the trees
These naked branches have lost their leaves
Oh how I long for the boughs of June
And the robin’s nest and iris bloom
Our childhood lost still lives inside
Beneath the loneliness and compulsive pride
It’s not too late if we try hard
We can reclaim who we are
TIP OF THE CAP
This train ride’s a tip of the cap
American music all across the map
So climb aboard we’re moving fast
To show our love celebrate the past
Now modern rock is NYC
And country time Nashville Opry
I’ve got a ticket for that Memphis soul
Stax/Volt/Sun Records rock and roll
It’s a northbound ride for electric blues
Windy shoulders and stockyard crews
Where guitars sting and mouth harps blow
That urban vibe of Chicago
This Mystery Train rolls southbound too
Jambalaya and crawfish stew
Jazz& blues is what it means
Mississippi delta and New Orleans
I’m on that train I’m westward bound
for LA punk and that surf-rock sound
but I’ll jump rail for the riffs I dig
Those lightnin’ leads flash Texas big
Train, train roll down the line
Tune your ear and you will find
that the sound you hear at every destination
is the folk-rock-soul of a heartbeat nation
JUST BECAUSE
Shake
Slither slide snake
No need to fake
Don’t be a flake
Just because
You feel the buzz
Don’t call the fuzz
Act like you was
Get up and dance
Step from stance
This could be your last chance
To snap out of that trance
Hey beautiful– smile
It never goes out of style
Haven’t seen it in a while
Why impose self denial?
Feelin’ kinda groovy
Starring in a crazy movie
Well this flick should have some nudie
With myself and a cutie
SCHOOLDAZE
I think back to schooldaze I think back to fifth grade
My first love a deep crush, how it felt how it stayed
To notice the first time the features in her face
I can’t help to just stare and daydream into space
Her eyes and her lips and her hair are so pleasing
Does she feel the same way or is she just teasing?
In high school a dull day perfume note thrown my way
Such boldness and fashion and humor on display
A quick sketch endowed with a caption that’s asking
Why is it your true love is afraid of unmasking?
I turn to her blue eyes and my nerve is unsteady
A flower in full bloom I don’t think I’m ready
Cute girl I don’t know asked her friend to meet you
Why is it so hard for emotion to break through
Words of confusion advice that is all wrong
Frustration is the rule peer pressure is so strong
Athletic young lady I don’t know your name
Weak stomach and no spine were always my shame
I buried my feelings of true love down inside
With dumb stuff like jealousy machismo and false pride
Music is my love that never was spoken
This song is a gift to the hearts that I’ve broken
What means love is yourself the essence of being
Expression whose life force is vital and breathing
A love that extends through the cosmos and all time
A passion so pure it transcends sublime
ATHEIST PSALM
For bedtime stories of ancient belief
An atheist psalm is welcome relief
A revolutionary theory the Church will dismiss
Made for today we’re ready for this
It’s a vision of God with 20/20 sight
From an unholy roller; Oh I’m feeling it tonight
The power to heal is back in my hands
And control of my fate is in my command
I rely on myself and what is around me
It’s removed all the doubts that used to confound me
It’s cleared the confusion of a head that was reeling
To believe there’s no God is a cleansing feeling
It’s cleared the confusion of a head that was reeling
To say there’s no God is a cleansing feeling
There is no God
Just a theistic clan
Superstitious fraud
Do you understand me man?
Jesus and Allah and Buddha and Yahweh
Tall tales of old help little today
So on guard defense spine up straight
For hysterical attacks of right-wing hate
From an invalid pope in a flowing cape
And a Vatican that harbors bishops who rape
Little boys molested silenced to tears
Intimidated to protect orthodox careers
Priests hide in the closet as pious pretenders
It’s the Holy Roman Church and its sex offenders
They don’t believe what they preach and neither should you
These hypocrites and liars teach little that’s true
So clear the confusion of a head that was reeling
To declare there’s no God is a cleansing feeling
So clear the confusion of a head that was reeling
To yell there’s no God is a cleansing feeling
Because of different faiths
We must kill each other
Doesn’t this seem stupid?
Can I get an “Amen” brother?
Will my life matter to humanity?
How long can I live and fight off insanity?
On the vigor of youth works the grit and the sweat
It weathers my face so I don’t forget
That the strong and the brave with the weak and the measly
Can live just as long and die just as easily
So I keep no illusions concerning mortality
Death is the end the spiritual finality
When I look in the mirror I see the wisdom is there
In the lines in my skin and the strength of my stare
It’s cleared the confusion of a head that was reeling
To know there’s no God is a cleansing feeling
It’s cleared the confusion of a head that was reeling
To scream there’s no God is a cleansing feeling
ANNA REX
Anna Rex what happened to you what makes you see yourself this way?
That beautiful girl, not much left on that skin and skeleton frame
It’s not fair what men expect I wish we all could feel the same
Distorted view is food for thought while the body wastes away
Video killed the brain that’s how it goes it’s such a shame
Supermodels on TV dream of fortune, desire fame
The message to us all: what’s life without sex appeal?
Just illusions of ourselves in a world we can’t see what’s real
Anna Rex how can I help?
I wish I knew just how you felt
Obsession in the mirror reveals the ghost that was your face
Your self-denial robs youthful glow and leaves a husk in its place
The conflict over want and need rages in your mind
Always yearning ever searching for satisfaction it won’t find
MONEYBUG
In America we’re mostly the same
In our cities the pace is insane
In our leisure we must be entertained
That’s why drugs numb all the pain
TV Billy stays up late
In school he can’t concentrate
But there’s a pill to keep him calm and sedate
That his parents feed him twice a day
Moneybug– the cure is a new drug
Moneybug– always with the… / the cost of these… / the side-effects of these… new drugs
Doc, I got a tooth that hurts
If you touch it just makes it worse
Can you give me a prescription first?
Narcotics are what I prefer
Pedro young and gay
He’s sick dying of AIDS
The cost of treatment is beyond his means
With healthcare run by insurance schemes
So he can’t afford the….
Martha disabled and old
Wasting away in a nursing home
With a dozen meds side effects unknown
Would you want this life to be your own?
More research is to find a cure
But it’s a business that’s for sure
Profit & loss is how they keep score
We forgot what we’re fighting for…
LISTEN TO THE WOMAN
The words I say to you will always be true it’s a promise I won’t betray
Kiss me on the lips with a look and a smile, I forget how to play
I love you so much somewhere in my heart for reasons I can’t explain
I listen to the woman even if she’s wrong, there’s something in her way
A toast to our love it will conquer all take away the pain
Believe it in your heart feel it in your soul sear it in your brain
When I became strong I wrote this song it put me on a plain
Stretched me to the limit then I went beyond I’ll never be the same
When I say “I love you”
She knows that I do
What else matters if that’s true?
With infinite patience always in her nature to be warm and kind
A sensing intuition knowing what to say and when to change her mind
She knows herself well, measures all her words in what & how to say
Listen to the woman even if she’s wrong there’s something in her way
MLB General Manager 101
On top of this list are egomaniac owners, with way more money than brains:
Where you REALLY don’t want to be on this chart is near the top & out of the post-season– those team’s CEO’s & GM’s all deserve scrutiny.
MLB teams spent an average of $1,573,000 per win in 2015. In today’s free agent market, teams pay an average of $6M/win. Teams determine player value by calculating the number of wins a player will add above replacement level (WAR), using a blend of scouting and advanced metrics. A championship-level player at any position is 2-3 WAR, an all-star is 4-6 WAR, and a MVP is 8-10 WAR. Finding & signing bargains, while minimizing mistakes, is how you win as a GM.
All players need to be objectively valued, starting with the most important baseball skill– hitting. Hitting is best measured using the triple slash stats of AVG/OBP/SLG which gives a true measure of a hitter’s ability. OBP is life in baseball. It is the most important measure of a hitter’s value, carrying around three times the weight of SLG, which is second in importance. AVG is prone to severe fluctuations, even from season to season, and doesn’t measure the batter’s ability to take a walk– a critical hitting skill.
For reference, 2015 MLB triple slash averages for all players was .254/.317/.405.
Q: What is a batter is trying to do at the plate? A: Create runs. He does this by: 1) not making outs, and 2) hitting for power.
Productive outs are WAY over-rated in most situations. Sacrifice bunts give the other team an out, which is generally bad in terms of winning. Base stealing is also over-hyped, as caught stealing hurts– especially in this modern power-hitting era. Team SB% needs to be >75% to be effective towards winning.
A hitter’s value always needs to be understood in the context of the defensive position he plays. Catcher, shortstop, centerfield, and second base are critical & difficult defensive positions, which must be played competently for a pitching staff to be successful & stay healthy. Power & run production is usually expected from the less-demanding defensive positions: first base, corner outfielders, and third base. Of course, DH has always been about power in the AL, since 1973.
Pitching, as related to winning, is also about power. Pitchers with high K/9 and low BB/9 have the low ERA’s. Strikeout pitchers handle the best hitters with their stuff, and cover up for poor defense. The value of true-ace pitching in the post-season is exponentially higher than in the regular season.
Relief pitching has only the fraction of the value of starting pitching. Most organizations still overpay on closers and set-up relievers. Smart organizations stockpile power arms, then convert them to relievers if they fail as starters, in order to keep payroll costs down.
Defense was the final baseball frontier to be conquered by sabermetrics, begrudgingly earning respect from the old-timers. With the advent of digital video technology in the 2000’s, each player is now more accurately measured for their true defensive value. As recently as the 1990’s, assists, put outs, and errors were the only stats for individual defense; making Gold Glove awards (and any other opinions on defensive ability) highly subjective. Now, Zone Ratings, etc… use statistical analysis to objectify range, accuracy, arm strength, and competence at all positions.
As productive players at premium defensive positions get older, their defensive skills erode necessitating their being moved to easier spots, usually 1B or DH. Baseball history proves that it is nearly impossible to move a major-league player up the defensive spectrum, which runs C-SS-2B-CF-3B-RF-LF-1B-DH.
All this new data gives savvy GM’s (with a competitive payroll) the ability to budget their ball club, from its rebuilding to World Series champion. This is exactly how in 2015, the Houston Astros & Chicago Cubs rose from the ashes into the post-season. The St. Louis Cardinals are an example of an organization that is always competitively-funded & well-run from top to bottom.
Pennants & WS championships are won in the off-season. The deals a general manager makes through trades, free agent signings, and Rule 5 draft acquisitions shape the roster for the field manager. Most big league skippers will manage their talent equally well; and even the best, such as Joe Maddon can only add a few wins to a season’s total. The field manager’s primary value is in the post-season where game-management skills win & lose pennants. That’s why rebuilding organizations punt on experience and often give the manager job to a rookie at minimum salary– because they aren’t too worried about the post-season.
Generally, you need a good manager to win it all, and having a great one really helps. The most infamous example of an incompetent manager winning the World Series was in 2001, when Arizona Diamondbacks skipper Bob Brenly so horribly mismanaged his 2 HOF aces– Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling; along with his bullpen to the point where HOF NY Yankee closer Mariano Rivera was pitching in the bottom of the 9th of Game 7 with a one-run lead. A last-gasp rally started by Mark Grace, and aided by a Rivera throwing error, saved the Diamondbacks from eternal ridicule.
BTW, the Diamondbacks/Yankees 2001 was (IMO) the greatest World Series in the history of the game.
The most important GM questions of each off-season are: What is the payroll budget and where is this organization on the win curve? Understanding where a team is on its win curve determines spending priorities. Is this a team ready to win it all, or does it need to keep building, or rebuild? With an answer fairly determined, spending is then balanced accordingly on MLB payroll and draft/player development. Teams with no shot at winning (<75 wins projected) are well-advised to dump veteran payroll, in order to re-invest in prospects, the draft, and young international free agents.
Looking at basic team numbers can reveal much about where an organization sits on the win curve. Today with two Wild Cards, a team can virtually guarantee a playoff birth with 92-94 wins. Runs Scored (RS) & Runs Allowed (RA) objectify won/loss record, through Pythagorean projections. Intelligent GM’s can look at their roster before the season and use advanced metrics to estimate RS/RA, in order to approximate their team’s final W/L record.
Proof of this is in hindsight too. For instance, in 2015, the NY Mets were 90-72 scoring 683 runs and allowing 613, projecting to an 89-73 record. Most teams fall near their RS/RA projection, but not all. Sometimes teams can be lucky or unlucky in one-run games and/or extra innings– usually these contests are split around 50/50. This can distort a team’s final record, and reflect a false picture of their true talent.
An example of this were the 2015 Oakland A’s, who were 68-94, yet they were only outscored by 35 runs on the season (694-729). OAK’s Pythagorean projection was 77-85, but a 19-35 record in one-run games, the worst winning % in MLB, sunk their season. The good news for A’s fans is that OAK probably isn’t as bad as their 2015 record, and their Moneyball GM Billy Beane knows it.
Other GM’s don’t understand this so well, and they are usually found in organizations that perennially miss the post-season. Managers are hired and fired more often, and with more fanfare. Field managers probably receive too much of the credit & blame for winning & losing, while the GM’s off-season moves have much more impact on a team’s performance & final result.
Fans who don’t know their team’s general manger have very little clue as to why their team succeeds or not. For franchises that continually lose, this is likely the way it will continue to be, until their fans take a closer (and more serious) look at the business of baseball.
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