Category Archives: Sports

Nuances of the Milwaukee Brewers dumping Josh Hader

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David Stearns dealt ace lefty closer Josh Hader to the Padres for a demoted closer, two fringy prospects, and a pitcher they DFA’ed 2 days later. They did this because ownership didn’t want to pay Josh Hader’s final arbitration raise this winter. It’s a chicken shit move, I agree.

The key to this deal (and it’s a long-shot) for the Brewers is LHP prospect Robert Gasser who posted a 4.18 ERA across 18 starts at High-A Fort Wayne this season. Lefty reliever Taylor Rogers isn’t close to Josh Hader, and OF Esteury Ruiz is a bench guy with no pop. RHP Dinelson Lamet needed Tommy John surgery after 2020, but refused and went with platelet rich plasma [quack] treatment instead. It failed probably costing him his MLB career.

“Dinelson [Lamet] has a good arm and was included in the trade to help balance out the deal,” said David Stearns. “As subsequent transactions played out, the roster fit became a little tougher. We are hopeful we will be able to keep him in our system.”

So why did the Brewers trade Josh Hader, only to DFA a guy in that deal two days later?  The answer is that Padres GM AJ Preller made David Stearns take Dinelson Lamet because he wanted to dump him. The GM rule is: if someone dumps to you, you get to dump (something less) back. When someone dumps the best closer in baseball, and you get to dump an arbitration expensive pitcher who has been derailed by injuries, that’s quite a nice gift.

This was a shameless dump by Brewers ownership, comparable to when the Rays dealt ace LHP David Price to the Tigers in 2014. That move deflated the team & killed their season. Rays GM Andrew Friedman left for the Dodgers after that season, and Joe Maddon went to the Cubs. The Mets have been after David Stearns for awhile and this deal may finally convince him to leave. He didn’t want to make it.

It’s the RF Christian Yelich extension ($26M per thru 2028, then $6.5M buyout) that hamstrings them. The Brewers made the same mistake with RF Ryan Braun and didn’t learn. That’s the truth Brewers front office & ownership can’t tell you.

The fans aren’t fooled. David Stearns had been asked by the Yankees, etc, for years about Josh Hader, and he always refused them by putting an exorbitant price tag on his elite, cost-controlled closer. Then Stearns gives Hader to the Padres when no one expects it. What explains that?

When David Stearns was told by team owner Mark Attanasio to trade Josh Hader, he must have realized that this was going to be his end in Milwaukee. David Stearns knew all the consequences, it’s his job to know. Viewed as his last trade deadline as Brewers GM, Stearns made sure the Yankees didn’t get Hader. It was the best he could do. This was a payroll dump to an organization Stearns could tolerate. I believe the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Cardinals & Dodgers were considered intolerable, meaning Brewers fans would never forgive him.

As mentioned, the Mets are interested in David Stearns, and have been for some time. Therefore he couldn’t trade Hader to them, as it could be construed as a conflict of interest down the line by MLB. Stearns had to trade Hader to a team he wasn’t going to potentially interview for this winter. Those were his interests in a deal he didn’t want to make. Knowing all this makes this murky deal much more understandable.

Ownership didn’t care about the return, so it’s the team & fans that lose. It’s yet another reason I’m against private ownership, because roughly 99.9% of Brewers fans hate this deal. The entire team hates the deal. After this season, David Stearns will be allowed to talk to other teams and he will get snatched up by one that has the payroll to win a World Series. The Brewers window to win, which opened in 2018, has now been closed by ownership.

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Universal DH Era

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The MLB players & owners finally came to their senses and their lockout was settled amicably by March 2022. Opening Day was moved back only one week to April 7, with many doubleheaders to come this summer. The big story of the MLB season is the universal DH and the deadened baseball. I like both.

Slugging percentage has been quelled, and in many ways this unofficially ends (or at least suppresses) the steroid era. Owners now have the power to unilaterally manipulate the baseball as the players get stronger. That’s easier than moving the fences back in all 30 MLB parks.

Once again you have to be a true slugger to go opposite-field upper deck, and that’s the way it should be. I’m going to commend both sides, players & owners because it appears each side actually listened to the other. They both found a way to respect the game and move it forward for the fans. Analytics have been a HUGE part of this. Online criticism & commentary gets noticed when the money is this big. It certainly wasn’t the haters in the fake sports media that led the charge for this improvement. All they do is blabber & rant.

Less than two months into the 2022 MLB season I’m christening this the Universal DH era, as this rule change has radically impacted the game in a good way, which is refreshing. Pitchers no longer have to take batting practice, work on bunting, learn batter signs, and ultimately stand in a batter’s box and try to execute.

That’s one less place for them to get injured. The bases are another, as pitchers now don’t have to concern themselves with running the bases, unless they volunteer to be a pinch runner for their manager in need. It creates a completely different dynamic for them to channel themselves and stay healthier.

That’s a LOT off of their workload, as now they can concentrate exclusively on being a pitcher on the mound. Look at how pitchers have done in 2022 by comparing the slashline batting stats from the past five seasons this one inclusive. You would think that with pitchers not batting, the slash lines for MLB hitters would go up, since starters no longer drag down the league average. But it’s the opposite.

MLB  BA  OBP SLG

2022 .238 .309 .383    (thru May 27)
2021 .244 .317 .411
2020 .245 .322 .418   (60 game season, universal DH)
2019 .252 .323 .435
2018 .248 .318 .409

BA is down 6-8 percentage points, OBP is down 8-12 percentage points, and SLG% is down at least 30-40 points. This gives pitchers a chance again. Another thing that has helped pitchers is K-zone technology, which hold umpires accountable. It’s harder than ever to be a good MLB pitcher, or even an average one. Fielding, holding runners, avoiding sign detection, umpire performance, etc, are all measured by MLB front offices, scouts & fans*.

* To be honest, much of the fan interest in analytics is fueled by gambling promoted by ESPN, etc. This gambling addiction explosion started with fantasy sports, and was accelerated when ESPN began broadcasting Texas Hold ‘Em poker, promoting it as a mainstream sport, but I digress.

This analysis of the universal DH rule impacting MLB pitching mostly applies to starters, as relievers don’t hit as a rule, but they had to as they developed. All these distractions of being an incompetent batter are now gone at the highest professional level, so the rules for developing pitchers now change everywhere. It’s more specialized, and you have to commit to a position earlier now. MLB is a global game, with a re-codified international draft, Japanese League transfers, etc.

Now the rules are the same in the AL & NL for the first time in MLB since 1972. That makes sense. This allows pitchers to hang around longer, which is good since they don’t grow on trees. The universal DH also makes the game much easier for the manager in the dugout. No longer will a manager have to consider taking out a strong pitcher with a few innings left, for a pinch hitter. This helps the bullpens of all 30 teams, and keeps relievers healthier. Fans, players & owners like that. It took a lockout that threatened the entire 2022 season for owners & players to get this done.

The idea is that pitchers have needed a break ever since José Canseco. The newly expanded post-season, with a third Wildcard is fine too. The two teams with the best records in each league get byes, while the best-of-three play-in series are entirely at the field of the teams with the better record, or tie breaker winner.

That respects the 162-game season, which hasn’t really happened since 1993, the last season before MLB adopted the Wildcard. Expansion in the 1960’s ushered in the pennant race era from 1969-1993, where you had to win your division (East & West in each league), to get into the post-season. This set up two 7-game league championship series to determine the World Series match-up. It was cruel & elegant. But MLB expansion (Marlins-Rockies, then Diamondbacks-Devil Rays) necessitated a third (Central) division in each league, and thus the Wildcard was stillborn in 1994.

Big-spending franchises that were previously shut out (Red Sox, Giants, Cubs) by perennial powerhouses like the Yankees/Dodgers, benefited from the Wildcard system. It began in 1994, but that season was cancelled by MLB commissioner Bud Selig after his owner colleagues provoked a player’s strike, which denied the owners of their coveted post-season television, attendance and merchandising revenues. The 1994-95 MLB players’ strike was a bitter dispute that dragged on too long. Opening Day wasn’t until Tuesday, April 25, 1995 for the Dodgers-Marlins, and the next day for everyone else.

The fact that both players & owners cooperated to settle their differences (for now), and play ball brings a measure of hope to die-hard fans. They say “hope springs eternal” in baseball, but much of that is naive. Baseball is big business, just like all professional sports everywhere. Championships are won in the off-season, like when the Dodgers acquired RF Mookie Betts. Or when the Nationals let RF Bryce Harper & manager Dusty Baker go, and signed free agent LHP Patrick Corbin and brought in Dave Martinez to manage their dugout in 2019.

On the other end, there’s no hope for the Pirates or Reds in 2022. The Cubs are now almost finished dumping assets for prospects, and will be done by the 2022 trade deadline. The Rockies & Diamondbacks have no chance in the stacked NL West. The Giants, after a swan song for Buster Posey’s final season in his Hall-of Fame career, succumbed to the Dodgers in 2021, and that was that.

The Giants still spend a ton to remain respectable, which is okay, but it’s not enough to win without another HOF-er. Ever since LF Barry Bonds was retired by MLB in 2007-08, the Giants have focused on pitching, drafting & development. That’s how they won 3 WS, 2010, 2012 & 2014, one as a Wildcard. They finished 6 GB the Dodgers in 2014, won the NL West by 8 games in 2012, and by 2 games in 2010. The Diamondbacks won the NL West in 2011. There was much more inter-divisional balance back then.

Now it’s the haves & have-nots. The Brewers are the “haves” in the NL Central as long as their pitching holds up. The universal DH helps Craig Counsell manage his rotation, and gives them a better chance in the post-season where pitching matters most. The Brewers have never won a WS. I predict the Brewers or the Padres are going to be the next MLB team to lose their virginity, so to speak.

The Milwaukee Brewers have the formula with pitching and developing it internally. They get the best out of their starters and keep them relatively healthy. Can they keep it going? The LF Christian Yelich extension cripples the Brewers financially, and they really can’t afford it. His back is injured and this has sapped his power. The Brewers are paying him $26M per season through 2028, with a $6.5M buyout.

That’s why I favor the Padres in this quest to be World Series christened. The Padres have more payroll, and they need it against the Dodgers. People who don’t follow the NL West don’t fully appreciate how the Dodgers win. They have the most talent & money. They draft & develop. They’ve had an international presence since forever. If you’re bad, or even borderline, the Dodgers don’t just beat you, they punish you. It’s demoralizing if you’re trying to develop young players with fragile psyches.

It’s why Padres GM AJ Preller had to trade young LHP Eric Lauer to the Brewers for more experience & consistency in RHP Zach Davies in 2020. After one good season, Davies was flipped to the Cubs for RHP Hu Darvish. The Padres need frontline championship starters who can face the Dodgers. That, and Coors Field with Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, etc, can blow-up a LOT of young pitchers.

That was a real possibility for Eric Lauer (above), so his brilliant GM did the right thing by trading him to a NL competitor for maximum value. The NL Central works better for Eric Lauer, so the trade benefits everyone, both teams, AND all the players involved. That’s rare, and therefore noteworthy.

It is instructive to note that the Brewers & Padres have made many recent deals with the Rays which have benefited all sides. See: SS Willy Adames, 2B/UT Jake Croenenworth, OF Manny Margot, RHP Drew Rasmussen, etc. This is a NL round-up, but I will throw-in that the Rays are a really smart organization, so GM’s need to know what they’re doing when dealing with them, otherwise the Rays swindle the other side even when they are dumping. The Rays are always dumping. Baseball Reference has the Rays around $75M for 2022, which is bottom-five (or close, it’s murky) in MLB payroll again.

The Cardinals are an organization that knows what they are doing, so they will hang around and probably snatch a Wildcard in 2022. This is a franchise that benefits from post-season expansion. This is the final MLB season for 1B/DH Albert Pujols, C Yadier Molina & RHP Adam Wainwright, so the Cardinals are in it to win it for sure.

The NL East is the murkiest division in the senior circuit. I have never believed in this version of the Phillies, as they have too many holes. The Nationals are rebuilding, and made a HUGE mistake re-signing RHP Stephen Strasburg to that crazy extension. He basically hasn’t pitched since, due to injuries, and that was the obvious risk. That may cost them LF Juan Soto.

The Marlins are futile, and new GM Kim Ng busted with her first free agent splash in LF Avisail Garcia. Historically speaking, GM’s don’t get many second chances to spend with Marlins ownership. Clearly, the Mets have the divisional edge in payroll. In March, team owner Steve Cohen said the Mets “probably will” go over a $290M payroll for the 2022 season. Spending over that threshold gets taxed by MLB at 80%. Here are the new CBA numbers on the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT):

Tax tier  Threshold    Tax rate
First        $230 million   20%
Second   $250 million   32%
Third       $270 million   62.5%
Fourth     $290 million   80%

It’s hard to determine exactly how much MLB owners are taxed when their franchise goes over the CBT, as it’s formulated by average annual value of all (multi-year) contracts, salary dumps, etc. Suffice to say I see the $270M threshold (3rd tier) as the divider for many MLB owners who don’t want to pay 62.5% tax on anything. 32% is more doable for a MLB owner willing to spend over $250M, but 62.5% bites hard at $270M. Maybe once as a final plunge, otherwise only the wealthiest, most egotistical owners will spend that kind of money. Usually it’s a bad idea that fails, but uncontrollable egos won’t listen to reason.

The Mets signed FA RHP Max Scherzer, and RHP Jacob deGrom isn’t getting any younger, so the Mets are in World Series-or-bust mode in 2022. The Mets finally have an owner who can afford to spend what their fans expect, but health remains an organizational issue they need to solve to compete for a championship again.

The Braves benefited immensely from the Padres collapse in 2021, as AJ Preller only tried for Max Scherzer at the trade deadline and he lost out to the Dodgers who also acquired SS Trea Turner in their deal with the Nationals. No one else available was worth him trading for, so AJ Preller throwing in the towel on 2021 opened up the acquisition market for GM Alex Anthopoulos, who retooled the entire Braves outfield at the deadline at a bargain, which helped them win the WS. The Braves had been languishing for much of the 2021 season, until they got reinforcements who payed-off bigtime, while the Mets collapsed. The Braves would have been buried in the NL West with the Dodgers & Giants in 2021, and through 1993 that’s where the Atlanta Braves were.

As a reminder, the previous two trade deadlines before 2021, Padres GM AJ Preller had gobbled-up much of the best available talent to surround their young phenom SS Fernando Tatis, Jr who was brought up in 2019. Short outings from their starters, inconsistent defense (Tatis, Jr in particular), and injuries derailed the Padres by August 2021. Their off-season began with Preller firing manager Jayce Tingler, and then snatching Bob Melvin from the A’s, who are again in dump mode. AJ Preller double-dipped (again) by also getting LHP Sean Manaea from Oakland, and added FA RHP Nick Martinez from Japan.

The Padres have RHP Mike Clevinger back from his 2nd Tommy John surgery, but it’s still questionable what they will get out of him. He is currently on the IL with a triceps issue. Rookie LHP MacKenzie Gore is the key for the Padres. With LHP Blake Snell, RHP Joe Musgrove & RHP Hu Darvish, the Padres have 7 starters. They are stacking the 4/5 spots in their rotation on normal rest, while being prepared for the doubleheaders to come. An example of stacking would be Nick Martinez going 5 innings, then MacKenzie Gore going 3. This gets the game to their closer, without using regular relievers.

As a note, the Brewers did this very successfully in 2021 with Eric Lauer. It’s a strategy that wins in the post-season. Bullpens are typically chewed-up by October. The trade deadline can bring in reinforcements, but as a rule, managers should stick with starters, and use 4/5 starters as relievers in the post-season.

Pitchers now must face at least 3 batters per relief appearance, and that can be an eternity when a bullpen guy blows up and loses a championship, like the Astros in 2019 to the Nationals in Game 7. RHP Gerrit Cole will never forgive Astros manager AJ Hinch for that, and he shouldn’t. The metrics have been clear on this since Moneyball (2003). As a manager, don’t use your 3rd-or-4th best reliever in an elimination situation, unless that’s all you’ve got. Starters on short rest are always better.

In conclusion, it’s the National League and this DH rule change that’s the story in MLB in 2022. The NL now has the benefit of the DH. The only other year the NL had this was in 2020, the 60-game pandemic shortened season, and it was understood that it was only for that year. It took the 2021-22 lockout with 100 days of posturing and then finally some serious negotiating by the interested parties to get uniform rules which make the game a bit more fair & interesting. As far COVID-19 goes, it’s still with us, and remains a factor in professional sports. It will be until it is eradicated, and it will take a LOT more than a 100-day stand-off between millionaires & billionaires to get that done.

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Novax the sick Djoke

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Preface: Omicron isn’t mild. That’s a political lie meant to numb you to the dangers of letting the virus rip, which has been the US government’s policy from the start, first with Trump, and then continued under Biden/Harris. We need a Zero COVID strategy, globally, to end the pandemic.

The Novak Djokovic ruling in Australia reinforces an anti-scientific & eugenics stench among the capitalist governments. For those not up-to-date on the situation, tennis star Novak Djokovic who is unvaccinated, has been allowed entry into Australia, despite strict entry requirements– which Novax doesn’t meet. He was allowed to work a deal with the Australian Open organizers and government officials, despite the protestations of the VAST majority of Australians who have been living under some of the toughest COVID mandates in the world. It’s been widely seen for what it is: another generous exception granted to the privileged, while the rest of us have to “live with it.”

Last week, Novax arrogantly posted on Instagram that he had obtained a visa to travel to Australia and would be participating in the Open. This incited a firestorm of opposition among the people of Australia, who have been living under stringent COVID mandates on vaccination, travel, masking, etc, for months in an effort to contain Delta & Omicron. It was this mass eruption of democracy that forced the Australian government to temporarily rescind Novax’s visa when he arrived.

The fake media keeps writing it up as if there was a “mix-up” or some government confusion over their visa policy, etc. The toiling masses can’t be given credit for preventing a corrupt anti-vaxxer from buying (& lying) his way into their country and being allowed to do whatever he pleases because he’s privileged. That’s not a narrative the fake media is interested in, but it’s what happened. The reactionary court ruling to allow Novax entry, overturns the will of the Australian people.

What it confirms is that if left up to the courts, a right-wing agenda will always be validated– from Julian Assange to Kyle Rittenhouse. This can be traced all the way back to Bush v Gore in December 2000. Anti-vaxxers are free to spread COVID as an ideological pillar of class rule. Vaccines, lockdowns, masks, testing, and science in general, are vilified as violations of “individual rights,” while the social rights of the VAST majority are dismissed. Novax is the $220 million martyr for the anti-vaxxers. Oh how they pity him & his suffering! The hypocrisy is staggering.

This situation was turned into a nationalist issue for reactionary purposes. Serbian leader Aleksandar Vucic wrote last week, “Our bodies are doing everything to see that the harassment of the world’s best tennis player is brought to an end, immediately.” Novax’s father, Srdjan Djokovic lashed out at the Australian authorities, claiming his son is a martyr comparable to Jesus Christ, “Our Novak, our pride. Novak is Serbia and Serbia is Novak… They are trampling over Serbia and by doing that, they are trampling on the Serbian people… The leader of that faraway land, Scott Morrison … dared to attack Novak and expel him before he had reached their country. They had wanted to throw him to his knees, and not just him, but our beautiful Serbia… We Serbs are a proud European people. Throughout history, we have never attacked anyone, we only defended ourselves.” Djokovic’s mother Dijana claims her son is a “revolutionary” who was “changing the world.” All this because Novax won’t get vaccinated.

Anti-vax Nazis compared Novax to Julian Assange during this drama, which was ludicrous. Assange is a hero for telling the world the truth about imperialism. Assange is suffering in a real prison for that. Novax is just another entitled reactionary, grandstanding for himself, a symbol of hope for the hopelessly ignorant. Anti-vaxxers all claim “natural immunity” as their defense. If natural immunity was enough to stop COVID, then the pandemic would be over already. But it isn’t.

The anti-vaxxers uncritically accepted Novax’s claim that he had ‘natural immunity’ from COVID, by testing positive on December 16, 2021. It’s now very likely that his ‘positive test’ claim was a lie to get Novax around the vaccine requirements for a visa. The timing couldn’t have been better for an unvaccinated individual wanting to participate in the Australian Open.

A fake positive test can be obtained the same way a fake vaccine passport can be manufactured. If ex-Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Antonio Brown tried it, then why not Novax? One of the requirements for a visa is that you don’t bring danger or harm to any of citizens of the country you are entering. The Australian government wasn’t interested in any of this, or asking Novax about not masking/isolating after his supposed positive test. Those facts & questions would be very inconvenient.

Novax has now been confirmed as unvaccinated by the government of Australia. If he was actually COVID positive on Dec 16th (which is highly questionable), he refused to wear a mask or quarantine himself, as required by Serbian mandates. That’s not a national hero or a martyr, but a selfish & ignorant elitist. Anti-vaxxers & COVID denialists are the political equivalent of flat-Earthers & holocaust deniers. That’s why the vast majority must reject them and their Malthusian ideology.

The bigger issue is that this AO event shouldn’t even be held, until we’ve eliminated COVID. To all the people attending indoor public places & outdoor super-spreader events without a mask, I must insist that you just don’t get it. I’m talking about the BIG picture. This isn’t coming from jealousy or any other form of hatred, but from science. You’re too wrapped up in your personal interests, and this is what is perpetuating & worsening the pandemic.

I am the first person to publicly call this pandemic what it will be known as in history: the Coronavirus War. It’s the war to prevent WWIII. Please step back and look at the big picture, which starts with how WE are going to end this pandemic. It can’t be just a few of us, it has to be the VAST majority of people who have ethics & respect science, along with all those willing to sacrifice for a better world. Join the fight on the good side of the Force, because WE deserve better than 2021.

Fri 14 Jan 2022 09:22 AM CST

Breaking update: Novax’s visa was cancelled a few hours ago, for a second time on the basis that his presence could “excite anti-vaccination sentiment”. His legal team is appealing the decision of Alex Hawke, the Australian immigration minister. Novax will soon be interviewed by Australian immigration officials, with a full hearing to take place on Sunday morning (Melbourne time), the day before the Australian Open begins. The chances of the immigration minister’s ruling being overturned are remote according to legal experts.

The sick Djoke presented false information on his visa form, saying he hadn’t traveled outside Serbia for the 14 days before flying to Australia, but social media has photos of him in Marbella, Spain over the holidays. As a rule of visa law, no one gets away with that. That’s not a “minor oversite” or “mistake” in filling out a visa form, but a false declaration to gain admittance. The political pressure this situation has created for the Australian government has been enormous.

On Monday (Jan 10), Der Spiegel claimed that when it scanned the QR code belonging to Djokovic’s PCR test at 1.19pm German time on December 16, it said: “Test result Negative.” However an hour later, after another scan, it said: “Positive.” Several others – including New York Times journalist Ben Rothenberg – reported the same findings, with Rothenberg also posting a photo of the two different results. When anyone tried on Tuesday it returned universally positive results. It’s now clear that Novax’s ‘positive’ COVID test is surely a fake, as many of us suspected from the start.

Novax always has a convenient excuse for his lies & blatant disregard for the health of others. It gets to the point where no one believes him anymore, just like the little boy who repeatedly cries wolf. If Novax keeps trying to press his luck with his legal appeals, staging fake protests, etc, Australia may decide to ban him for 3 years. Most foreigners would have already received this ban, if they tried to pull what he did. The Australian government doesn’t want to do this, but this sick Djoke was never very good at reading the political situation.

Fri 14 Jan 2022 4:034 PM CST

There’s a lot to digest from all this, and since the verdict is now assured with only a few footnotes to be added, I’ll make my final comments & sign off.

What offends the most from start-to-finish are several things. First is the fanaticism masquerading as seriousness in discussion by the anti-science crowd. Everything is right-wing talking points, junk science & attacks from the anti-vax mob. They don’t want any kind of rational discussion of the facts, they just want to rant & then fight. In a word, they are impossible. These Stalinists & Nazis are working together as the Axis around US/UK imperialism in the Coronavirus War.

My second irritation is with Novax, as all-around this was a shoddy production from him. Sloppy, lazy, ill-conceived & poorly planned. It’s execution could only end in failure & ignominy, with Novak Djokovic being played as a political pawn. From the side of science & democracy, we made an example out of Novax. Didn’t want to do it, felt we owed it to him… He thought because he’s such a great tennis player that he could transcend international politics by doing whatever he wants during a pandemic and get away with it. The people of Australia said, “Fuck you” to that, and Novax will soon be on a plane back to Serbia.

His family back home have been shameless conspirators in this fraud Novax tried to pull off in obtaining a visa. Right-wing nationalist elements all rallied around Novax & his lying family. All of them were in on this conspiracy to obtain an Australian visa by fraud because they all knew Novax was unvaccinated. All the anti-vaxxers supported every Novax legal argument, document & positive test as facts. If I’m the Australian PM, it’s a 3-year ban as stated by law. These transgressions warrant it, as (scientifically speaking) this was an attack on your border.

It’s the smugness that rubs raw with Novax. He expected to get away with it, so he didn’t make sure his COVID test indicated “positive” instead of the actual negative result. Anyone can (& will) check that QR code, and SCREENSHOTS will be the proof. Lazy & stupid people helping this sick Djoke in his camp & at the highest levels of the Serbian government. All because he won’t get vaccinated and can’t admit it. Marxists call that political cowardice. For all the anti-vaxxers reading this, I ask, “At what level does the hypocrisy get so ridiculous that you bail on him?” Intelligence & the far right have a preconceived limit on when to stop talking and start fighting, but they don’t want to admit it or identify where it is.

If your strategy to get into the Australian Open is to falsify documents & a COVID test, then at least do it right. Since your consider yourself a professional, and clearly have the money, then have a serious plan that can succeed or else don’t try. Don’t go out in public maskless after the proclaimed positive date. Stay isolated as mandated, and no one can dispute your story. Don’t travel to foreign countries within 14 days if the rules stipulate against it. For the respect of the Australian people whom you expect to welcome you into their country, it’s not asking too much. It insults EVERYONE’S intelligence when you disrespect people like that.

Once these documents in question were released to the media, it was too easy to investigate and expose all the inconsistencies & lies. It took like half a day, which begs the questions, “Why didn’t the government of Australia figure this stuff out since is wasn’t that hard? Don’t they have people who know how to investigate & handle this stuff at their borders?”

The best explanation here is that this was a backroom pay-off deal Novax set-up with the Australian Open & government officials, that went bad. Cinematically speaking, it compared to the end of La Femme Nikita (1990), except no Anne Parillaud & no style from Novax, who never spoke directly to the media nor answered their questions during this murky affair in which everyone got bloody. It was his lawyers, family and right-wing extremists that spoke for Novax, and they were never believable. That’s why it ends like this.

It’s an election year Down Under, so the 9-time AO champion has to leave in order to soothe the discontent of the Australian voters. A warning lesson from all this is that if Novax hadn’t been so careless & stupid, he could have easily gotten away with it, but it was the power of the people speaking their voices that sent Novax home before the Happy Slam begins.

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The unreality of identity politics in sports

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You don’t think we asked for more money? I mean, what are we screaming about? Nonstop! –– Megan Rapinoe

In case you haven’t noticed, women’s soccer star Megan Rapinoe has been on the offensive in the media. She claims the USWNT deserves equal pay to the men, when it has already been proven in court that the women have been paid MORE than the men in the past decade. This lesbian athlete, now activist, has Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton & Joe Biden behind her, so she’s hard to stop at this time.

Draymond Green is correct in what he says, but politics are there in the media to distort the argument in favor of Megan Rapinoe’s reactionary agenda. All this is being driven by something much bigger than her.

It’s so easy to be bold when the field has been cleared for you. Megan Rapinoe always claims to be so educated, as compared to whomever she’s attacking. Yet she distorts facts, and won’t listen to reason, in any sense. For example, under capitalism (and Rapinoe is surely a capitalist), you are paid as an athlete according to what you can bring in economically. That was Draymond Greens’ central point during his Twitter storm, and Megan Rapinoe never honestly addresses it.

The NCAA basketball tournaments have just concluded for the men & women. Both were broadcast on TV networks & big cable channels. They were also available for free streaming on the internet. Basically, everyone who wanted to watch had access.

The 2021 NCAA men’s basketball championship game attracted 16.9 million viewers to CBS on Monday (April 5), as Baylor beat undefeated Gonzaga 86-70. It wasn’t even that close, as the refs really helped the Zags stay in it. That hurt the ratings as Gonzaga had an Off Night.

This was a 14% decline from the 2019 game. The 2020 tournament was canceled due to the pandemic, and the Virginia-Auburn (2019) championship game went into OT.

The two women’s Final Four games on Friday (April 2) averaged 2.2 million viewers for ESPN, and Sunday’s championship game between Stanford–Arizona brought in 4.05 million viewers. Both are up from 2019, with the semifinals improving by 22%, and the title game by 10.5%.

The men’s Final Four average audience for Saturday’s two games on CBS (11.81 million) was down 14% from 2019. The men’s Final Four suffered smaller drops than the most recent World Series, NBA & NHL finals, and college football’s national championship game.

But as we can see from the raw numbers, even under these media trends (women up, men down), women only draw ~ 20-25% of the viewers that men do. The truth is the interest isn’t as intense for the women sports, unless there’s a transcending superstar such as Mia Hamm, the Williams’ sisters, Maria Sharapova, or Danica Patrick.

Megan Rapinoe isn’t in that class. Being hyped “elite” anymore, ain’t what it used to be. There are egos & big money involved here, so people will be dishonest, but Megan Rapinoe’s appeal is very limited. She’s abrasive, and not beautiful. How do you market that to a mass audience?

In a rare moment of candor she notes, “We are getting obnoxious to ourselves, to be honest.” Think on that for a moment. This is a half-educated individual, with half-baked ideas, fed to her from half-hearted liberal supporters. Megan Rapinoe is a puppet on a string, and the worst kind, in that she doesn’t know it.

She represents a very limited strata of well-paid American athletes who believe they should get more, and are completely oblivious to everyone outside of their own interest group. Megan Rapinoe can tap into the reactionary #MeToo campaign as a woman, AND the LGBTQ…WXYZ campaign as a lesbian. Identity politics is still searching for its Holy Grail, a gay black women who is an athletic superstar. But as the song goes, two out three ain’t bad.

So all of you women teachers, don’t be fooled by this selfish poser. She’s a jock, which means she didn’t study in school, and speaks only for herself & the sponsors. All you women Amazon workers, don’t buy into this feminist crap which only seeks to divide men & women.

Feminists don’t care about workers on the job. You’re supposed to shut up & work, and then cheer for all of them on the weekends. All you girls in school, does that colored-hair phony have anything to say concerning crushing student loan debt? How about COVID-19 in the classroom? Girls are very affected by this.

Megan Rapinoe pontificates, “You know, just generally, the issue that we have with voter suppression in this country, I think everybody and every business and everything should be at the disposal to make sure that we’re influencing those laws in the right way.”

My first questions are: Who are “we,” and in whose interests are the laws to be influenced? She’s certainly not talking about working people, who are the ones that create all the value with their labor. By “we” she means her elitist colleagues. There needs to be more diversity amongst the oppressors. That’s the bottom-line argument of identity politics.

Then there’s is the issue of voter suppression. Socialists are systematically kept off election ballots– by the Democratic Party. This is an inconvenient political fact, which the likes of Megan Rapinoe always ignore. But facts are stubborn things. Any left-wing alternative to the Democratic party is censored & attacked by the deep state apparatus.

It doesn’t matter too much who the President is, because the deep state runs the show. The proof of that is the current US president clearly has dementia, and the VP is a puppet. So who’s running the country?

On October 31, 2019, former Acting CIA Director John McLaughlin (above) said to a live audience with reporters in the room, that he was grateful for the deep state’s role in prompting the Ukraine-gate impeachment of President Trump. “Well, you know, thank God for the deep state,” McLaughlin responded, provoking laughter and applause.

Until that day, those of us who had proclaimed its existence & massive influence were deemed “conspiracy theorists.” The deep state still isn’t completely acknowledged by the liberal media, as a cover-up for this nebulous institution, where all the political & economic levers-of-power are held.

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NCAA basketball tournament notes

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The NCAA basketball tournaments, men’s & women’s, were cancelled in 2020, due to the COVID lockdowns. The back-to-school campaign has many interested aspects, and college sports is certainly one of them. The NCAA men’s basketball tournament has existed since 1939, and predates organized professional basketball & the NBA, which was established post-WW2.

This is arguably the most prestigious NCAA event for many reasons. Virtually every Division I university has a basketball program, as compared to football, which is much more expensive. According to Google, there are 350 schools that are full members of 32 Division I basketball conferences, as compared to 130 varsity football teams.

Furthermore, basketball is now more competitive than ever, especially in the mid-level conferences. The 64 (68) team format allows all the best teams in, with a fair chance to win it all. It’s the toughest tournament to win, and almost impossible to repeat anymore. It’s been like that since John Wooden left UCLA.

Teams want to at least make the NCAA tournament, and if they don’t, coaching vacancies appear. For example, on the eve of the 2021 NCAA tournament, Marquette announced they had fired their head coach Steve Wojciechowski.

A week later they have announced Shaka Smart as their new head coach. There was a $7M buyout from Texas that had to be handled, and it was, since they got bounced by a #14 seed. The top open jobs are now considered to be Indiana, Texas & Oklahoma. In total, there were 37 D1 basketball head coach vacancies when 2020-21 seasons ended. A few more will appear after the tournament ends.

New Marquette basketball head coach Shaka Smart faces some alumni concern. This video above shows Texas up 14 points at home in the second half, when civil war broke out, and West Virginia ended up winning by 2. I know Marquette just hired its first black head coach, and it’s all good feelings after firing Wojo (which was necessary), but this is concerning. A lot of other head coaches are about to become available, particularly Loyola Ramblers’ Porter Moser, but Marquette already took themselves out of that running with this quick hire.

There are a lot of factors that go into such a decision, especially for a school like Marquette which has a long history of losing its head coaches to other schools who are willing to pay higher salaries & invest more into their basketball programs. Marquette has lost Rick Majerus, Kevin O’Neill, Tom Crean & Buzz Williams because of this. All this goes into a hiring process, as it’s as much about hiring someone you think will stay, as it is about getting a good coach.

FYI, Tex Winter, the innovator of the Chicago Bulls triangle offense with Micheal Jordan, Scottie Pippen, etc, was the Marquette Hilltoppers head coach for two seasons, from 1951-53. Marquette basketball has a rich coaching history, so we’ll see. As an alumnus with a rooting interest, I’ll give Shaka Smart a fair chance, but I have my doubts, and I’m not the only one. As the leader, you can’t ever lose control of your ranks.

Then there are the women, who are now televised on ABC & ESPN. They are playing in San Antonio, while the men compete in Indianapolis on CBS & TBS. That’s equal coverage for the women, so it comes down to ratings & ticket demand when comparing their economic value to men.

The coronavirus pandemic has affected tournament logistics greatly. Holding the entire tournament in one city with enough gyms makes sense. Once again, I don’t miss the fans in the stands. I think the officiating is MUCH better without fans to yell, boo & harass the refs into giving their team the call.

All this mask wearing, and then pulling it down to yell, etc, is optics. I watch because I’m starved for entertainment, like everyone else, but I’m not fooled. These events are fundamentally irresponsible during this pandemic. More & more they resemble the last days of bread & circuses during the Roman Empire.

The women’s play has much improved since the NCAA established Title IX in 1972, which prohibited discrimination on the basis of sex in any activity receiving federal funds, such as athletic scholarships to universities. The women’s Sweet 16 teams are all solid in fundamentals & team play, where in the past it was only a few programs, namely Tennessee & Connecticut.

Note that I don’t think the women are anywhere near as exciting as the men in hoops, but I recognize that they know how to play. I spend much of my time evaluating the girls for their hotness. For instance, when it’s Baylor vs. Michigan, I rate the Wolverines as clean-cut, but homelier, with only one or two pretty girls.

The Baylor women are nappy & cuter, but I’m not a fan of their fake eyelashes. Spend more time on your game, girlfriend. Call me old school on that. All this makes me wonder what the girls have been looking at all these years, as we boys take these games so seriously?

I’m on record that I don’t like mascot names, and there’s a double hypocrisy with the Baylor women referring to themselves as the “Lady Bears.” I’m going to let YOU figure that one out.

As far as the Baylor Bears go, this guy’s nickname is “Off Night” because when he guards you, you have an off night. That’s an impressive nickname if you can live up to it, and Davion Mitchell does. He’ll be in the NBA someday, if he stays healthy.

Look at the improvement in his college stats from year-to-year. What the stats don’t show are his elite defensive skills & leadership. Davion Mitchell is a serious baller, with upside, MUCH better than his 1st-team All-American teammate Jared Butler.

In the era of the 3-point shot in the NCAA tournament (1987-present), I’ve never seen a college defender handle the high screen & roll better. Off Night slips below (or above) the screener and closes back to the dribbler in the blink of an eye, before the ball handler can set to shoot. There is no lane to drive on Off Night, who plays defense like a hybrid of Darrell Armstrong & Scottie Pippen.

Furthermore, if the opposition tries some high-low action on the other side, Off Night rotates over and plays the high zone on that side. Baylor attacks with their defense, switching from man-to-man to zone defense on the fly, so effectively, because of Off Night. He always boxes out the closest big when in position. Off Night checked one guy to disrupt their rebounding momentum, then boxed the big, more than once in their win against Villanova. That kind of player is a coach’s dream.

These highlights from that Sweet 16 game against Villanova, mostly show his offensive game, which still needs some polish, particularly shooting 3’s. But with his work ethic & basketball IQ, I expect Off Night to be a top NBA guard in the near future. He’s only a Junior, so he may stay another year, but he’s definitely top-10 talent now, and possibly the best player in this tournament.

Tue 30 Mar 2021 11:19 AM EDT

Averaging close to 17 PPG while shooting 43% from the field, Moses Moody had only 11 points on 2-10 shooting, including 0-4 in 3’s. Moody had 3 TO’s, double his season average. Arkansas lost to Baylor, 81-72, in the Elite 8. You can say he had an Off Night.

After getting called for 3 cheezy fouls in the 1st half, Off Night played the entire 2nd half without picking up another foul. Baylor was only allowed to press at about one-third to one-half their normal intensity, in order to keep Off Night on the floor. Poor officiating kept Arkansas in this game, and CBS approved. Unbelievable maturity, understanding & leadership by Davion Mitchell. Suddenly, it’s unanimous that Off Night is the best college player.

On the women’s side, Baylor’s Lady Bears were edged 69-67 by the Lady Huskies of Connecticut last night, aided by a bad no-call at the end, featured above. DiJonai Carrington was clearly fouled by two defenders, but no whistle. LeBron James tweeted a viral comment, “Cmon man!!! That was a FOUL!!” For background, Lady Bears head coach Kim Mulkey has faced backlash, after calling for COVID-19 testing to be scrapped ahead of the Final Four. So you tell me why there was no foul call?

Officiating is still the biggest problem in hoops. Bad referees can take a superior team out of its game faster than anything else. They can also decide it at game time. I wonder if those Baylor/UConn refs had East Coast bias, or just bias against fake eyelashes? I also wonder how the Oregon State women’s team refers to their mascot name?

Tue 30 Mar 2021 03:20 PM EDT

Davion Mitchell Scouting Report: Off Night leads the Baylor defense by manning-up on the opposition’s best perimeter player to start. If the whistles are fair, he will smother that player within a few minutes. It’s called owning your man on defense, and Off Night is the NCAA standard. Then his quickness, strength & skills go to work on the other end. His conditioning is professional grade, and punishing at both ends. Davion Mitchell has an NBA body already.

On defense, Off Night will switch the Bears to zone as needed, depending on what the opposition is trying to run. For instance, if it’s a three-man weave up top, Off Night will take the head of a 1-2-2 zone. That will stop that. If there’s some action being set-up on either wing, he’ll dive into that (2-3) zone & wreak havoc. He’s always communicating with his teammates, putting them in the right spots, so everything is covered. Then he can turn up the heat with ball pressure.

Most coaches tell their point guards, “Bring the ball up, and then get us into our offense, do this & this…” Off Night negates all that from even starting. He picks up full court, three-quarter court, half court, or minimally before the ball handler gets into shooting range. You must be in a power dribble by then, otherwise he will steal the ball. Players try their best quick moves, but Off Night is quicker. Sometimes too quick for the refs. If you’re a scorer who gives up the ball, he’ll make it difficult for you to get it back.

It gets very demoralizing to know that somebody is this good, and you’re not even close. I’ve only seen 3 games in Off Night’s career, starting with the Wisconsin game in the Round of 32, but it’s easy to see how his nickname has come about. Davion Mitchell has been owning guys for years, and it’s such a traumatic experience, that opposition players typically don’t want to talk about it. As a footnote on semantics, if you match up against Off Night during the day, his name changes to Off Game. Same result.

Here’s a hypothetical opposing high school head coach after a big loss. “Well our star guards who score 30 PPG & 25 PPG were held to single digits each. I don’t think anyone could have imagined that, and one guy can’t cover both of them. That’s impossible. Credit the opposing coach for coming up with a great game plan. Our guys never looked comfortable out there, and our best players each had an off night.” Yada, yada, yada…

Assuming you’ve never seen a player play, or have access to any scouting reports, stats, etc: How can you tell if you are watching a great player, or just someone who is having a great game? You can tell by knowing what goes into making a great player. Great players are aware of things that other players don’t even consider. They share the credit, and are the most selfless leaders, through example. A great player will make his teammates better, and does everything to help his team stay connected. This is how to win, because you can’t do it alone.

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Shaq is Shattered

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Good God, almighty!! The tables are everywhere! People are shattered!! — AEW Dynamite

I’m not a pro wresting fan, but this was Nacho Libre-esque! Shaq invited this mess when he took a swipe at Cody Rhodes’ eyes. Obviously Rhodes has fighting experience, because he immediately retaliated with a finger jab to Shaq’s left eye. It was a “playful” poke, which only temporarily blinded Shaq, but I got the sense Cody Rhodes could have taken his eye out if he had wanted to. You have to train military style for such a lethal/crippling response to be that reflexive & accurate. Then Rhodes showed off his wrestling moves with a horizontal flying body tackle that slammed the mighty Shaq to the ground. OUCH!!

When you throw bad ju-ju out there, over & over, it will eventually find its way back. Then Instant Karma gets you, and payback is a bitch. The screenshot above is Jade Cargill, Shaq’s partner, seconds after he got slammed out cold. She later “won” the match. That’s entertainment, you gotta admit!

Shaq is hurt bad, maybe worse than Tiger Woods, but jacked-up for sure. I’ve been checking, and as of this publication there is still no word. He won’t be wrestling again, as Shaq has been shattered, his spine & hips are in tatters. He did this to himself, by talking trash & disrespecting his opponent and pro wresting in general. Yes, it’s (supposed to be) scripted– part wrestling stunts, part acting, etc.

But if some dumbfuck who wants all the headlines for himself gets off script, then anything [!!] goes. Shaq’s fingernails are claws, as you can clearly see at the end of the video, when he’s out cold on the concrete, after being declared part of the winning team. If you swipe at a man’s eyes with all that, one too many times, this is what happens. When they’re setting-up fall barricades behind you (2 folding tables), a Darwinian light bulb should go on.

She said “I’m fine, I’m okay” cover up your trembling hands
There’s indecision when you know you ain’t got nothing left
Well the good times never stay
And the cheap thrills always seem to fade away (when will we fall)
When will we fall (when will we fall down)

Jump back, got to get out of here
Been too, too long this time babe
Jump back, got to get out of here
When will, when will we fall down?

Toad the Wet Sprocket  “Fall Down”

Finally, when you get eye-gouged, go to your corner. Don’t take the charge. Not enough ring experience for such a tough wrestling circuit. Shaquille O’Neal will be remembered in two sports. In hoops he was the ultimate force of his era out of LSU, but too often a disappointment to his professional teams, coaches & fans. He picked fights with Kobe Bryant, because he was jealous of his pure talent & charisma. He threw Penny Hardaway under the bus in Orlando, even as they were 1996 Olympic “teammates.” That’s why most Orlando Magic fans prefer Dwight Howard.

No one is arguing Shaq doesn’t deserve to be a NBA HoF-er, he is. But he is not the best ever (or second best) at center, as he always claims in his bullying manner. Wilt Chamberlain would have owned him, much like Akeem did, only more. Jabbar was better overall. So was Tim Duncan. Russell knew how to win. They all rate better, and that’s the basketball respect Shaq has earned. Top-10 all-time is really good.

Shaq always wants more than he deserves, and more than he’s earned, constantly grumbling about being disrespected, etc. So here’s some professional respect for Shaq. The other sport Shaquille O’Neal will be remembered for is professional wrestling. It was a short career, and Shaq was the ultimate shooting star. WOW!! It was the most glorious ‘unscripted’ moment ever in pro wrestling, although in retrospect, if you look closely after reading all this, you could see it all coming. It wasn’t Earth shattering, but it was Shaq shattering.

Mon 08 Mar 2021 12:25 PM EST

Epilogue: I noticed Shaq was bent forward at he sat & spoke during TNT’s NBA All-Star game broadcast last evening. Definitely not as bad as Tiger Woods’ injuries, but I imagine it still hurts, as he took damage. Apparently he’s not disabled, but he did receive a serious concussion, beyond the brutal back injury, so who knows? Shaq got all-time posterized in pro wrestling, and that’s the best of what happened.

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Hot Stove Burnout

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This is the final wrap-up of Hot Stove Slow Burn

A few good reasons the Mets didn’t land Trevor Bauer

1) Dodgers offered better money in the first two years. He’s opting out after that.
2) Dodgers are a winning organization, and more scientifically driven.
3) On Thursday evening, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that Bauer had agreed to a deal with the Mets. Six minutes later, Mark Feinsand refutes that report.
4) On Friday, the Mets defeated J.D. Davis in salary arbitration, paying him $2.1 million rather than $2,475,000. That SCREAMS cheap-ass management & ownership.
5) On Friday morning , the Mets set a noon ET deadline for Bauer to make his decision on their contract offer, according to a report from MLB Network insider Joel Sherman, claiming, “they didn’t want to be used to help Bauer gain leverage with the Dodgers.”
6) On Friday afternoon, with their self-imposed deadline expired and still no word, the Mets tune changes. “They are waiting on Bauer’s free-agent decision, but it’s unclear if they’ve given the right-hander a deadline.”

I was wrong about no more big MLB trades this winter, after the SDP acquired RHP Joe Musgrove from PIT. Last week, 3B Nolan Arenado was sent to STL from COL, who eats $51M on a deal they inked with their franchise player only two years ago. Rockies got no serious prospects in return, so this was a straight salary dump. STL jumps to the top of a weak NL Central.

What I said about a lot of free agents returning to their old teams, or having to accept minor league deals, or getting frozen out completely, has happened. The latest reunion is Marcell Ozuna back to ATL at 4/$65M. Once again, it’s because OF/DH Ozuna has more value to ATL than any other team that is spending money. Same with DH Nelson Cruz, who resigned with MIN at 1/$13M, and 2B Cesar Hernandez who re-signed with CLE at 1/$5M.

MIL signed 2B Kolten Wong at 2/$18M to solidify their infield defense. I’m assuming the LAD will re-sign 3B Justin Turner, and that STL will re-sign C Yadier Molina. That means CF Jackie Bradley Jr is the only significant position player remaining in FA. What’s left (that matters) is pitching, and that’s a crapshoot, for sure.

Remaining starters: Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Jake Odorizzi, Rick Porcello, Matt Shoemaker, Rich Hill, Brett Anderson, Jake Arrieta, Cole Hamels, Mike Foltynewicz, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, Aníbal Sánchez and Mike Fiers.

Righty relievers: Mark Melancon, Trevor Rosenthal, Tyler Clippard, Trevor Cahill, Jeremy Jeffress, Tommy Hunter, Shane Greene, Yusmeiro Petit, and Sergio Romo.

Lefties relievers: Oliver Pérez, Justin Wilson, Jake McGee, José Álvarez, T.J. McFarland, Mike Montgomery, Chasen Shreve, and Tony Watson.

MLB salaries have decreased for the past 3 years, for the first time since their union starting keeping track in 1967. The current CBA is set to expire December 1, 2021. MLB players haven’t been happy with this deal since the free agency season of 2017-18, when 2nd-tier free agents saw their value collapse, due to increased use of advanced metrics by GM’s, which proves these players aren’t worth the big contracts they’ve been used to.

The International draft is now the free agent talent hot-spot, because these players are young & cheap. Young players (generally) play better defense, which is valued more accurately now. The International draft reduces the need for traditional free agency in filling roster voids. 1B Jose Abreu of the CWS is a great example of this.

This free agent freeze-out has been compared to “collusion” of an earlier era (1985-87), and technically it is, as all the GM’s agree (pretty much) on player valuation. But it’s not criminal collusion, because it’s out in the open. The fans know it too, and debate it in blogs, chat forums & social media. The smarter players also know it.

Therefore the MLBPA has no grievance of collusion here. This is stupidity in leadership to accept this rotten deal, with no understanding of the direction the game was going. Leadership is supposed to know better than anyone, but instead it’s the furthest behind. Now there’s a coronavirus pandemic on top of all this, and its unprecedented challenges, for which Tony Clark & Company are completely ill-prepared.

The players should fire all their union leadership, and organize amongst themselves, electing leaders of their own, with the ability to recall & replace them at any time, if they fail to serve the interests of the players as a whole. All CBA negotiations need to be open & transparent, with time for all players to debate & understand its meaning & full ramifications.

This needs to include the minor leagues, developmental sites, & international professional leagues, such as those in Japan, Korea & Mexico. With players being posted & signed as free agents from all parts of the world, any MLB players’ labor organization needs to have international representation & an internationalist perspective.

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Henry Aaron & home runs

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Henry (Hank) Aaron, who passed away yesterday at age 86, is best remembered for breaking Babe Ruth’s all-time MLB home run record, finally finishing with 755, to Ruth’s 714. Aaron broke Ruth’s mark in the face of ugly Jim Crow racism in 1974.

His death is somewhat ironic in its timing, as the MLB HoF balloting is to be announced on January 26, which is next Tuesday. On the ballot again is Barry Bonds, who hit 762 HRs, and was the greatest player ever. And there’s Roger Clemens, who went 354-184, to become the greatest pitcher ever, etc.

But old-timers like Hank Aaron have insisted they be kept out due to PEDs. Except that Milwaukee Brewers owner Bud Selig was the “Steroid Commissioner,” and he’s in the HoF, elected by a committee of Hank Aaron’s peers.

Fans need to understand that there were two coffee pots in the clubhouse– regular, and the one spiked with greenies which was called “leaded.” There were bowls full of amphetamines that you could help yourself to, etc. That’s how the players did it in Hank Aaron’s era, so don’t have any illusions when making past allusions. Most sportswriters looked the other way, just like they (& fans) did when McGwire & Sosa were swatting all their bombs.

There’s no merit to these exclusionist objections, and in fact, they’re hypocritical. A bunch of PED users have already gotten in, and once that happens, you have to let them all in, to be fair. Relatively speaking, there’s much more steroid abuse in the NFL & NCAAF, and it’s gone on much longer. Too few sports fans want to be serious about this, which is why these issues persist.

Henry Aaron was the last Negro League player to go to MLB, before they all folded after integration, which began with Jackie Robinson in April 1947. Hank Aaron played for the Indianapolis Clowns in 1952, before being selected by the Milwaukee Braves. Like Jackie, Hank was a very hard man, due to his early-life circumstances. In the end, baseball fans celebrate his talent, determination & extraordinary courage more than anything. RIP Henry Aaron

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Trump pardons Lil Wayne, but I don’t

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Packers fans: Who is better Lil Wayne, or Aikman/Buck?

I took an impromptu straw poll last weekend, and speculated it to be a classic ‘Hillary or Trump’ conundrum, but I learned that Green Bay Packers fans much prefer Buck/Aikman to Lil Wayne. That says something.

Song/video review: Lame beats, stupid rhymes, with no melody hook. All compression in production. Someone tell Lil Wayne this is low-grade dog shit. I’ve heard better music at the ballgame…

He claims he worked on this for three (3) whole days. Lil Wayne says he never takes that long to do a song. Amazing results, huh? How can I be a big rock star like him? If we didn’t have Lil Wayne (and the rest) keepin’ it real, and providing the soundtrack for our lives, what would we have?

Listen to Lil Wayne rap, “Number 12, number 12…”  He probably never heard of Lynn Dickey. No images of him in the video. Typical front-runner fan. Obviously Aaron Rodgers is one of the best NFL QB’s ever, but it’ still disrespectful to ancient Lambeau faithful. There are many of them.

Lynn Dickey was a more-than-adequate QB when he had WR James Lofton, TE Paul Coffman & RB Terdell Middleton. They were a prolific NFL offense for a few years. The problem was their defense & special teams were shit.

Green & gold, green & gold to Trump Tower, baby
Green & gold, green & gold CMB power, baby

Representin’– you know what I mean?

A lot of celebrity rappers apparently bought themselves a pardon. It’s a disgusting lot that was pardoned, in whole. I wonder what Trump wanted for Julian Assange’s pardon? NO support from this gangsta crowd for the WikiLeaks founder. It’s just another reason to dislike Lil Wayne’s latest song, which was only released on YouTube 4 days ago!

      1. Millennial Whoop - Ric Size

 

Donald Trump’s pardoning Lil Wayne and the rest of these black rappers is nothing more than a cash pay-off to Trump, which is how he does business. The white supremacists can’t be happy about this one. Trump has been a very divisive President, no question.

The nuclear football hand-off has been executed and the führer in officially in exile, just like Adolf Hitler after his failed Beer Hall Putsch in November 1923. The political lessons of January 6 won’t be forgotten by the working masses. Fascism is storming the Capitol, then trying to hide from it.

The political question to the fascists from everybody else is, “What is next for your movement?”  Marxists take what Nazis say seriously. You don’t get to use History as a platform, when you don’t know it. Everyone needs to be listening, and very interested in their answer(s).

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Hot Stove Slow Burn

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Mostly nothing has been happening on the MLB hot stove because everyone’s attention has been on the International Draft, which began yesterday, January 15. Young, cheap talent gets all 30 MLB GM’s (& their owners) excited. How each team does here, has a huge impact on an organization’s future. This draft has been moved up from July 2, due to COVID-19.

At the major-league level, only the SDP, NYM, ATL & CWS have made any significant roster upgrades, in an attempt to catch the LAD this off-season. As of this publication, the NYY just re-signed DJ LeMahieu (6/$90M), and reportedly just inked RHP Cory Kluber (1/$11M) to replace Masahiro Tanaka.

This treading water still makes NYY the AL favorites, because the TBR dumped ace lefty Blake Snell to the SDP, and HOU is losing free-agent OF’s George Springer (qualifying offer tagged), Michael Brantley, along with RHP Justin Verlander to Tommy John surgery.

When you look at the free agents the CLE, OAK, MIN, TBR are losing, it’s hard to see any of them making a deep run in 2021, without spending some money now. The CHC dumped legitimate #2 starter, Hu Darvish & their back-up catcher to the SDP, for #3 starter RHP Zach Davies & four prospects– none of them pitchers. That dump turned the NL Central into mush.

PHI, TOR & LAA keep saying they’re going to do something, and they might. Plenty of talent available. Trevor Bauer (CIN), JT Realmuto (PHI) & George Springer (HOU) have a qualifying offer (QO) tag on them, meaning they cost a draft pick to sign with another team. NYY offered DJ LeMahieu a QO, and he refused, which gave the Yankees leverage in their negotiations.

If you’ve ever talked about how losing top picks affects a fantasy draft with friends, they’ll all tell you it’s a killer. It’s the same (x10) in MLB. Most GM’s are averse to losing draft picks now. This really limits the market for free agents.

Qualifying offer compensation depends on a complex formula in the CBA, based on revenues, but a team loses either a 2nd or 3rd round pick, (and possibly a later-round pick too) when they sign a QO-tagged FA. This helps recipient teams have great drafts, which puts those organizations ahead of their competition. Example: MIL needs a catcher, and JT Realmuto would work for them, except: 1) their payroll budget isn’t there; and 2) MIL needs their draft picks even more.

The lesson is that the player should almost always accept the QO. It’s becoming more true each winter. Example: RHP Marcus Stroman is smart for accepting his QO. Otherwise, he would have been waiting until after the June Draft as a QO-tagged FA. At $18.9M for 2021, it’s an overpay by the NYM. Next winter Stroman is an unrestricted FA.

Same deal with RHP Kevin Gausman and the SFG. Both teams (Mets & Giants) probably hoped these pitchers would refuse their QO’s, so they could collect a draft pick, but that wasn’t going to happen either way. Unless TOR signs George Springer to a big deal (and they could use him), he could become the next Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, who were frozen-out of free agency by their QO-tag.

The Achilles heel of the NYY is their predominantly right-handed lineup, and fragile/thin pitching staff. Re-signing DJ LeMahieu doesn’t fix that, it entrenches it. Lefty bats are hard to find, as WAS isn’t trading LF Juan Soto, and the NYM aren’t looking to deal OF Dominic Smith. The NYY are too right-handed, and that’s why smart teams like the TBR can run a bunch of tough right-handers onto mound and beat them consistently in 2020.

NYY are now about $10M below the threshold, which they’ve exceeded the past two seasons. Like the BOS in 2020, the 2021 NYY need to stay under that threshold to avoid a huge MLB penalty tax. They’ll need that $10M for call-ups during the season, and possibly a trade deadline deal or two.

This rules out a reunion with RHP Masahiro Tanaka. The SDP are looking for another starter in free agency, and will probably sign him, unless CIN is serious about dealing RHP Luis Castillo. AJ Preller would love to re-acquire the young flamethrower.

It’s coming down to a team making an offer, to nearly any player, who has no other options. If you’re a GM, it’s a buyer’s market for free agent talent, like never before. The question is, how will MLB owners pay for it?

On the field, the LAD & SDP have what it takes to handle the NYY & HOU, with WAS, ATL, NYM & CWS in the second-tier for 2021. Championships are often won in the off-season, and this winter appears to be no exception. Only a few teams are stacked to win a World Series in 2021. The possibility of a third-tier team winning it all is slim, and for a Cinderella, it’s remote.

MLB still hasn’t made a final ruling on the NL DH for 2021, when it’s already the new rule for 2022 & beyond. The universal DH protects pitchers & staff as a whole. It also allows NL rosters to be more flexible. You need both leagues to play by the same rules for it to be a fair game.

All this needs to be understood under the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic which is raging out of control. Sports stadiums are now being used as mass vaccination centers. Is it ethical to interrupt such a life-saving operation to play baseball?

I have friends as season ticket-holders, and they wonder out loud, “How can owners sell fans tickets to games?” Too many states won’t allow it at this point, with California being the most notable. The Dodgers, Padres, Angels, A’s, Giants, etc, may have to find a new home for 2021, and that’s if there’s even baseball at all. The start of the 2021 MLB season will be delayed for sure, that’s the industry consensus.

Tue 19 Jan 2021 10:30 AM EST

Padres get: RHP Joe Musgrove
Mets get: LHP Joey Lucchesi
Pirates get: OF Hudson Head, RHP David Bednar, LHP Omar Cruz, RHP Drake Fellows from the Padres and C/OF Endy Rodriguez from the Mets

RHP Joe Musgrove was another target of the NYY. Reportedly they were also interested in RHP Luis Castillo, but the Reds GM said he’s not being dealt in a statement on January 17, dedicated to quelling the rabid NY media. The asking price for Luis Castillo was surely too high for AJ Preller. The NYY couldn’t acquire either of these coveted young arms, because they don’t have the prospects. All the speculation on this was fake reporting & east coast bias.

Unlike hired-then-fired manager Carlos Beltran last winter, now ex-GM Jared Porter (pic above) had enough time to leave his mark on the Mets franchise. First there was the Francisco Lindor & Carlos Carrasco for prospects deal with CLE, which has been hyped as the biggest deal of the MLB winter. Really it’s a one-year rental on a star SS, with an expensive 3rd-starter thrown in. It’s a ‘Mookie Betts Lite’ salary dump by comparison, and if the NYM don’t sign Lindor to an extension, the question becomes: What did they give up?

Now the Mets just acquired left-handed 6th-starter Joey Lucchesi from the SDP, just as new GM Jared Porter was fired for sending over 60 explicit emails to women staffers several years ago. This is the Amazing Mess. Who is in charge of vetting, and reviewing resumes for MLB front office & management openings in Queens, NY? Why can’t the Mets keep their pitchers healthy? Why does this high-payroll team finish in the second-division year after year? Why are they so poor defensively? None of these realities are ever taken up seriously by the NY media, in their prognostications, nor by those who own this Amazing Mess.

Sat 23 Jan 2021 1:50 AM EST

MLB great Henry Aaron died yesterday at age 86. Here are my thoughts.

It appears the Joe Musgrove-to-the Padres deal was the final big trade of the MLB winter, the last coveted starter available for prospects. The Reds hoped to deal RHP Sonny Gray (2/$20M remaining), but teams were more interested in Luis Castillo (as discussed), so nothing developed there. This turned GM’s back to free agency, and the market has finally started to move.

Since my last update, CF George Springer signed with TOR for 6/$150M, and OF Michael Brantley re-upped with HOU for 2/$32M. SDP fans are pleased AJ Preller re-signed Jurickson Profar at 3/$21M. BOS nabbed LAD utility player Enrique Hernández for 2/$14M. Notice how position-flexible players like Profar & Hernández are valued today.

The remaining starters in free agency are mediocre, injury risks, and/or old. Masahiro Tanaka is probably the second-best option, after Trevor Bauer. It appears the LAA are going to make the reigning NL CY Young Award winner an offer he can’t refuse. The Angels are the team with money to spend that needs Trevor Bauer most, after recently signing LHP Jose Quintana for 1/$8M.

With the top starters decided, or out-of-reach, the market has turned to relievers. Pedro Baez (2/$12.5M w/ HOU), and Kirby Yates (1/$5.5M w/ TOR) were the most coveted bullpen arms, after closer Liam Hendricks signed a 4/$54M deal with the CWS last week. That shows you what’s left in the reliever market, and how quickly it dries up.

JT Realmuto appears heading back to PHI at ~ 5/$110M, unanimously according to industry sources. Lots of free agents speculated to go back to their old teams. Nelson Cruz (MIN), Marcell Ozuna (ATL), Didi Gregorious (PHI), etc. We’ll see. The Phillies have been slow-played this winter in their quest to re-sign catcher JT Realmuto, to the point where they can’t do anything else until this happens. Realmuto would probably like to sign elsewhere after losing in PHI, but he isn’t getting any other comparable offers.

There are still a bunch of mediocre catchers available, and most teams need depth, but no one can make a move in the catcher’s market until the top guy signs. Until then, just about everyone in need, holds out hope they can get him for cheap. That’s how the Cubs got RF Andre Dawson in 1987 for league minimum salary, if you think it can’t happen.

Now that George Springer & Michael Brantley have signed, the outfielder market will get some movement, for these reasons. But outside of the top remaining players, it’s mostly cheap one-year contracts for these guys at this point. That means it’s time for the Twins, Brewers, Cardinals, A’s, etc, to get active.

Penny-pinching teams are looking for bargains, and veterans are being squeezed out of the game. Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Jay Bruce, etc, aren’t getting MLB deals. It’s minor league contracts for these guys, at best. A lot of veteran sluggers are about to announce their MLB retirements over the next few months, they just haven’t accepted it yet.

Summarizing conclusions: The upshot of this is that EVERY team values talent MUCH differently than they did, even as recently as five years ago. Data-driven analytics, started by Bill James in the 1980’s, has opened up new frontiers in competitive baseball. The SDP are now the sexy franchise model, which combines the best of old-school scouting, with metrics & modern money management.

The LAD are the big-market model, but it’s too expensive for most, so teams have to find a different way to compete, and that starts with talent in the minors. Many fans ask, “What’s left of the minors?” That’s another serious baseball question. COVID-19 has encouraged teams to bring up young talent faster than ever, because, 1) they are cheap, and 2) there may be no tomorrow.

Here’s another new GM rule which is helpful to understand. Teams are targeting specific players, in their needs. This means if the targeted player signs somewhere else, GM’s will often leave that market, because the second option(s) at that position isn’t a good fit for the team/organization. Needs are very specific in terms of age, lefty/righty, switch hitters, power, OBP, defense, utility players, stealing bases, etc, whether it’s at a certain position or bench depth. Moreover, money is now too expensive for any MLB owner to waste.

In the end, the game comes down to which GM’s & scouting departments evaluate talent the best? Right now it’s the LAD, TBR, HOU, NYY, ATL & SDP. Here’s another dirty secret the MLBPA doesn’t want fans & their own players to know: the luxury tax is basically a hard cap. The financial & draft-pick penalties get every owner under it after two years, and they don’t ever go back over with the reset, because it’s HARD to get under without breaking up the team. See the Mookie Betts-David Price deal for BOS.

The NYY have signed minor-league contracts with pitchers which they are bringing into spring training to compete for spots [!] on their 26-man roster. This is a team with a $200M payroll. The waiver wire has also been active this winter.  For example: Padres outfielder Greg Allen went to NYY through waivers, to clear roster room for all their big acquisitions, while low-OBP slugger Hunter Renfroe was waived by the Rays, and signed with BOS for 1/$3M. That’s ironic franchise role reversal, from as recently as two years ago.

The Rule 5 Draft had a lot of selections, which surprised some people, but this is how AJ Preller re-built the SDP from winter 2015 through 2018. Saving money, dumping veterans, accumulating draft picks, investing in young talent, properly valuing defense & relievers, being active in the international draft, etc. Basically, leave no stone unturned when it comes to talent acquisition & getting a fair edge. Think outside the box. Exhaust all the less-expensive options before committing to premium free agents. Everyone in MLB has learned, and is applying this method, mostly out of self preservation in 2021. That explains the free agent hot stove slow burn all winter.

Mon 25 Jan 2021 3:55 PM EST

Postscript: Hand job

This is an interesting case in free agency. Elite reliever Brad Hand had a $10M option with CLE after 2020. In a surprise move, Hand was put on waivers by CLE. But he wasn’t picked up, because no one wanted to pay his 1/$10M contract, so CLE had to buy Brad Hand out for $1M, and he became a free agent. Now Brad Hand reportedly has signed with WAS for 1/$10.5M.

Brad Hand gets the million dollars from CLE for the buyout, but has to pay his agent a fee for the new contract & move, so I don’t think he wins in free agency. Brad Hand’s deal with CLE was an AJ Preller contract he signed with the SDP after 2017.

How well did AJP’s player valuation hold up? He nailed it. Brad Hand was selected by Preller off waivers from MIA in April 2016, just before Mike Hill dealt righty pitching prospect Chris Paddack for Fernando Rodney on June 30, because his team needed a closer. Marlins finally have a new GM, but the damage has been done, and it will be a long climb into serious contention for new GM Kim Ng.

I’ll conclude with the Marlins, because they were so much the story in 2020, in being allowed to cancel & reschedule MLB games due to a COVID-19 outbreak among their players & coaches. Instead of forfeiting these contests, as MLB rules instructed, the commissioners office & MLB executives made things up on-the-fly with new “protocol”, etc. The official forfeit score in baseball is 9-0. In football it’s 2-0, basketball 20-0, and ice hockey 1-0.

In a 60-game season, MIA played about half their games as 7-inning double-headers. They were able to plan their rotation & bullpen strategy far ahead of their AL/NL East competitors, who all had to accommodate the Marlins. This was a deciding factor in sneaking the Fish into the post-season in 2020. But it won’t hold up for 162 games, and neither will MLB in 2021 if COVID-19 is still raging, which by all indications it still will be.

Everything I’ve analyzed above is an industry deluded with the irrational idea that baseball can be safely played in 2021. But rational thought no longer matters in politics, it’s only the opinions of the owners that count as ‘authentic news’. MLB is being faced with survival issues, which has completely disrupted the market, despite the clarity that any independent sportswriter can bring to it.

The Fed can’t keep bailing the MLB owners out forever. Without a bailout, or fans in the stands, how are teams going to meet payroll and other big expenses? There are some owners that feel they can manage it, while others are concerned– to say the least. With all this unrest & uncertainty, there’s a high probability of a labor stoppage in MLB this season, which means the minors too.

HoF voting announced tomorrow: I’m a “small-Hall” guy for everything. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones & Jeff Kent are all Hall of Famers. I maintain my steroid line from 2012 with “No” to Manny Ramírez, Sammy Sosa & Gary Sheffield. Mark Buhrle & Andy Pettitte are my borderline guys. Omar Vizquel, and the rest weren’t quite good enough.

Final nugget, just breaking: NYY trades a reliever, along with $850K, and a prospect to BOS, in return for NOTHING. Red Sox pick up $8.15M left on Adam Ottavino’s deal, and send a PTBNL to NYY. Yankees are dumping salary to stay under the luxury tax threshold. Poor player-valuation by Yankees GM Brian Cashman, as this contract didn’t hold up at all, like so many others.

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