MLB 2019 Winter Meetings Round-up

Posted on December 11, 2019 by admin

Here’s the latest analysis on what’s going on in major league baseball this hot stove season.

MLB is pushing the new Red Sox GM to trade ace lefty David Price to the Angels, only they don’t have the prospects to make it happen. No way the Red Sox deal him to the Yankees. The only teams left with the prospects & payroll flexibility are in the NL– namely the Dodgers & Padres. One of these two teams will end up with David Price, if he’s dealt, which could happen this winter.

David Price is owed $32M/year for the final three seasons of his 7-year deal. The Red Sox need to get under the Luxury Tax threshold of $208M by dealing one of their high-payroll stars. Price is the pitcher everyone covets, and thus the easiest asset to deal. This is where having payroll flexibility and a good farm system pays off for contenders.

The Astros are also interested & able, but the Red Sox view them the same as the Yankees, a team in their league who is ahead of them. You can’t help them get better. Thus, David Price needs to be traded to the NL.

The Nationals just resigned ace RHP Stephen Strasburg, so they are done on starters. The Braves need a true ace to move beyond the Divisional round of the post-season, but do they have they the prospects & ownership approval for such a payroll increase? LHP Cole Hamels is probably not enough.

The Chicago Cubs maxed themselves on payroll with RHP Hu Darvish, and busted. The Milwaukee Brewers don’t have the budget for David Price. Neither have the prospects. The Cardinals are similar to the Giants: old, expensive & mediocre, so no one who is great & wants to win goes there.

In the NL West, the rebuilding Diamondbacks just dealt their ace Zack Greinke to the Astros last July, and aren’t in the market, even though they have the prospects. They may yet deal their best lefty starter Robbie Ray this winter. The Rockies are bloated with payroll, and still too many needs, with few prospects. Besides, pitchers never want to go there. I don’t know if David Price has a no-trade clause.

So it comes down to the Dodgers, who are looking for another ace to keep them ahead of the rest of the NL West; and the Padres who are looking to crash their party by establishing themselves as contenders in 2020. If AJ Preller & the Padres land David Price, they will have done that.

Remember that Dave Dombrowski was fired as Red Sox GM last summer. He was the one who made the Craig Kimbrel deal with Preller, for what turned out to be CF Manny Margot, and three other prospects who washed out, in what was hyped as a steal for the Padres at the time. Kimbrel gave the Red Sox everything he had, until his arm went dead in late 2018. Craig Kimbrel helped them win the World Series that year, which deserves respect & gratitude from every Red Sox fan. It was a fair trade in the end.

The other Dombrowski-Preller deal was the now infamous Drew Pomeranz-Anderson Espinoza deal. Many in the Red Sox Nation howled that Dombrowski had been “ripped off again by the Padres” when this deal was announced in summer 2016. A MLB/ESPN media lynch mob was formed to sanction AJ Preller, for “undisclosed anti-inflammatories” in Drew Pomeranz’s medical history with the Padres, as retribution.

AJ Preller even offered to rescind the deal, and take Drew Pomeranz back, but Dave Dombrowski refused, while the east coast media went into overdrive. This is why AJ Preller was suspended by MLB for a month in 2016. RHP prospect Anderson Espinoza never made it out of the minors, and is currently recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. The Red Sox won that trade too, yet many within the organization still complain.

The fact is, you can’t do business with liars & haters. That’s the Padres perspective. The final irony here is the Padres signing Drew Pomeranz to a 4-year $34M deal this winter, to be an ace set-up man. The only thing that makes David Price to the Padres a possibility now, was the removal of Dave Dombrowski as GM. There are still many in the Red Sox organization who harbor hate for the Padres, for making them look bad in how they have abused their clout with MLB.

The lowest point in the Padres-Red Sox relationship was the “Shohei Ohtani Affair” in which the Boston Red Sox used ESPN/MLB hatchet-man Buster Olney to openly tamper, in order to stop AJ Preller from getting Shohei Ohtani in free agency when he was posted from Japan. That’s how the most coveted Japanese two-way player ever ended up as an Los Angeles Angel.

These are the undercurrents of what’s going on in the David Price trade market. Ace lefties are rare birds, and it’s a better value to get them for 3 years, versus paying for 7-9 years in free agency. It cost teams about the same in average annual value, while limiting the long-term payroll commitment & risk. The Dodgers & Padres are all over this, you can be sure.

What’s going on this hot stove season is remarkable, which is why I’m commenting so extensively. It’s clear that teams are trending more towards being open & honest about their off-season plans. Unsurprisingly, honesty makes it easier for teams to accurately judge the market and make deals, whether it’s trades, free agency, or Rule 5 Draft selections. The 26-man roster creates new possibilities for all 30 teams.

As explained earlier, the good teams with strong farm systems are now making their moves at the Winter Meetings, because they are now clear of Rule 5 Draft considerations. The Nationals re-upped with Stephen Strasburg, and then the Yankee inked Gerrit Cole to a new record-breaking MLB 9/$324M deal a day later.

When each team better understands the other’s interests & position, then teams can reach a comfort level in dealing with each other. Conversely, when one is a arrogant, with more money than brains, then one doesn’t think about the other side when dealing SS Fernando Tatis, Jr for a cooked RHP James Shields. Or RHP Chris Paddack for closer Fernando Rodney.

In the past, many teams took a Red Auerbach (deceptive misdirection) approach to their off-season plans, which doesn’t work in a competitive & balanced league like MLB. That only insults the intelligence of the people you need to do business with in today’s world.

The Padres have been open about their intentions, and have followed through on them. They said they were going to trade players they felt had under-performed; and 2B Luis Urias, LHP Eric Lauer, RF Hunter Renfroe, and a few prospects are now gone.

The players they received in return are better, but more expensive & for shorter team control. Preller is winning deals, but he’s not ripping anyone off. Most of these deals look win-win to me, with teams lining up different needs. Preller is dealing from strength, which is his supply of young controllable MLB talent & interesting prospects.

Unloading OF/1B Wil Myers will be his final order of business before Spring Training. Wil Myers has gone from franchise player to clubhouse problem, and needs a change of scenery. The organization is frustrated with his lack of growth & make-up. He has tantalizing hot streaks, where you see the potential come through, then he falls into a funk for two months or gets hurt.

A rebuilding team may target Wil Myers as a buy-low candidate. The Padres will eat salary (3/$61M remaining) to move him. If they can’t deal him, he’ll likely be a utility player. That has value to the Padres, but is very expensive for their needs. That’s their situation, and AJ Preller hasn’t locked himself into anything. That’s how you fix a mistake, without making the bigger situation worse. Hard work, due diligence & patience.

Wil Myers turned 29 on December 10, and hit .239/.321/.418 in 155 games in 2019. His manager Andy Green was fired near season’s end, in a move meant to shake up the organization. It was the performance of Wil Myers and a few others that cost Andy Green his job. Andy Green was an excellent manager in his nearly 4 seasons with the Padres.

Green was put in impossible situations every year, with a weak roster & no depth. He held the Padres together in 2016, and again in 2017, when Preller traded everything he could to rebuild the system. It paid off for the organization, so it seems unfair that Andy Green isn’t a part of what is already a much better Padres roster. Andy Green certainly deserves another shot in MLB as a manager, with a roster that can win or an organization that requires patience.

Jayce Tingler is the new San Diego Padres skipper, following an established trend of young manager hires, which AJ Preller started when he hired Andy Green, after Bud Black was fired in mid-2015. Tingler is bilingual in Spanish, which is another trend you see in new MLB dugout skippers.

As mentioned, the organizations that are masking their intentions, are being left behind. I see the NY Mets as an example of this. They’ve spent so much time waffling back-and-forth on trading RHP Noah Syndergaard, finally stating after the World Series that he’s “off the market,” that they clearly had no “Plan B.” The Mets get a compensation pick from the Philadelphia Phillies for signing free agent RHP Zack Wheeler.

The Mets took forever to hire Carlos Beltran as their new manager, whom everyone loves, but he can only do so much with this roster. They aren’t making big splashes like they did last winter, after it blew up in their face. But they don’t seem to be hunting for mid-level free agent upgrades, or looking to make any serious trades either. They’re hoping for rebound years & better health from what they have.

A wish isn’t a plan. That’s my favorite Herman Edwards (NFL player/head coach/analyst) saying. The Mets have acquired platoon CF Jake Marsnick from the Astros for two prospects. Neither were on their Top 30 list, but they keep making these deals, and are running out of organizational depth. With all the holes they have on their roster, and no ownership commitment for a significant payroll increase, no MLB team is more caught in “no man’s land” than the New York Mets.

I’ve read more than a few articles on MLB’s site (& elsewhere) which cite an “un-named AL executive” and “un-named NL executive” in their analysis. I take this as Yankees GM Brian Cashman & Padres GM AJ Preller. Those are the two sharks running the MLB talent acquisition market this winter. These two teams made their intentions clear, and have followed through, and that sets the market.

Much of the top talent is now off the board, and that helps the free agent market move along. The lessons to players & agents is: when it’s your turn, don’t dick around. The market will make its best offer, and if you don’t take it, they will move on and leave you behind. Draft pick compensation matters, as free agents Mike Moustakis, Dallas Keuchel & Craig Kimbrel all learned the hard way.

The Rule 5 Draft will happen tomorrow morning, and there will be an update here. The Yankees were one team that needed to add 6-8 prospects to its 40 man roster to avoid them being taken in the Rule 5 Draft. That’s why they waited until the Winter Meetings to sign Gerrit Cole.

Among the Padres prospects left unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft were: Esteury Ruiz, Buddy Reed, Trevor Megill, Dauris Valdez and Michael Gettys. None are anything close to MLB ready, and are more like organizational depth, so selecting any one of these players means sacrificing a MLB roster spot for a season, for a long-shot.

With analytics and obsession over young talent, it’s harder to hit on this Rule 5 lottery than in the past. The point is that the San Diego Padres have the best farm system, and the New York Yankees are they deepest organization– and both left very little available.

The final storyline leaving the Winter Meetings is that if you haven’t helped yourself by now, it’s probably too late, as most of the top talent is already gone, as bargains are few in that market. After 3B Anthony Rendon signs, what’s left is second-tier talent– starting with LHP Madison Bumgarner. He’ll be the top QO free agent left, followed by 3B Josh Donaldson who declined Atlanta’s QO. Everyone needs pitching, and Josh Donaldson still puts up numbers, so they’ll both probably sign soon.

It’s OF Marcell Ozuna who may be the one frozen out this winter. The age-29 slugging outfielder declined his qualifying offer from the Cardinals. The Cards still want him back, but at less money. No one else seems to be interested. He’s too similar to Wil Myers, and thus not worth losing the draft pick to every other team outside of St. Louis. Padres GM AJ Preller’s desire to move Wil Myers dramatically affects the market for Marcell Ozuna and all other free agent sluggers.

The hottest markets are starting pitching, relief pitching, and then catching. Organizations now understand catching as a tandem, meaning there needs to be depth at that position. That’s why all the best catchers were quickly signed (or acquired in trade) as free agency opened. More importantly, catching is now understood to be an extension of the pitching staff, so defense really matters. Twenty-six man rosters in 2020 means some teams will go with three catchers.

Teams in need are looking for players that will give them 2+ WAR at a position in free agency. According to MLB’s 2019 metrics among position players: only LF Marcell Ozuna (age 29, 2.6 WAR); CF Brett Gardner (age 36, 3.5 WAR); RF’s Nicholas Castellanos (age 28, 2.8 WAR) & Kole Calhoun (age 32, 2.5 WAR); DH Edwin Encarnación (age 37, 2.5 WAR); 2B Eric Sogard (age 34, 2.6 WAR); and catcher Robinson Chirinos (age 36, 2.3 WAR) meet those qualifications. Note that most of them are old, so none of them will get lucrative long-term deal. Look for the younger players, with better futures to get the better free agent deals.

RHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (age 33, 4.8 WAR), LHP Madison Bumgarner (age 30, 3.2 WAR), and RHP Homer Bailey (age 34, 2.9 WAR) are the only free agent starting pitchers with a 2+ WAR in 2019. Lots of age & mileage on these arms, which is what makes them second-tier. Still, it’s pitching so it should move along, as long as egos don’t get out of control.

It’s when a Craig Kimbrel type of talent brings unrealistic expectations to the market, that things get messed up. Remember Kimbrel wanted 5/$85M or something crazy like that last year, when he was QO-tagged by the Red Sox, who didn’t want him back. After sitting out until the June Draft, and then signing with the Cubs, he was a disaster.

The Cubs re-upped with him at 3/$43M this winter, which doesn’t sound like a winning move for the Northsiders, but now we at least know what Craig Kimbrel is worth in free agency. The few known relievers who could help contenders were snatched up early, and what’s left is a crapshoot. That’s the second-tier reliever market.

No one in MLB wanted a repeat of last winter (or the winter before), where star players & their agents were holding up the market. It appears teams & free agent players/agents have come to an understanding on how the market is to work. This is the primary reason star players have moved much more quickly this hot stove season. It has been largely fan analysis & player push back on this, which has fueled this step forward.

Final Update: Wed 11 Dec 2019 11:35 PM EST

My timing is uncanny, as just after publishing on Wednesday ~6 PM EST, a flood of lower-tier free agent signings occurred as the Winter Meetings wrapped up in San Diego.

Dodgers have deal with righty reliever Blake Treinen (report): 1/$10M
Mets, Wacha agree to deal (source): MLB Network insider Joel Sherman reports Wacha will receive $3 million guaranteed with $7 million possible in incentives
Roark, Blue Jays agree to deal (source): 2/$24M
Crew has deal with KBO MVP Lindblom (source): 3/$9.125M for an age-32 starting RHP

Analysis: This is bullpen desperation for the Dodgers, and back-of-the-rotation rotation filler for the rest, with age-33 RHP Tanner Roark being the most obvious overpay by the Toronto Blue Jays– who are going nowhere. This is an example of the difference between trying to compete, and giving fans the illusion of trying to compete.

Later in the evening, it was reported by MLB that 3B Anthony Rendon agreed to a seven-year, $245 million deal with the Angels.

Analysis: The LA Angels needed to make a splash and improve themselves, and this helps. Unfortunately, they still have no pitching past Shohei Ohtani, who is coming off Tommy John surgery and will surely have innings limits. A six-man rotation is their plan, so they need at least two more quality starting pitchers after acquiring RHP Dylan Bundy from the Orioles.

Even better if they get three, because Dylan Bundy stinks. The problem is quality starters don’t exist in free agency anymore, as the Yanks & Nats ate them up. Look for the Halos to throw desperate money at big-name free agent pitchers, after they fail to land David Price. CF Mike Trout is still the best player in baseball, and he is worth the extension; but 1B/DH Albert Pujols is their franchise albatross since Josh Hamilton’s contract expired in 2017. OF Justin Upton ain’t no bargain either.

Final NL Winter Meeting Wrap-up: There have been a few head-scratchers already, none more than the Miami Marlins, who lost 105 games in 2019, acquiring 2B Jonathan Villar on December 2 from the Baltimore Orioles, after he was non-tendered due to his cost in arbitration, which will be ~$10M in 2020. This replaces 2B Starlin Castro who departs as a free agent, after being the lone MLB return in the Giancarlo Stanton salary dump to the Yankees.

Jonathan Villar is set to be a free agent after 2021, so he is an expensive rental which cost the last place Marlins a lefty pitching prospect. It won’t move them out of last place, and Villar can’t be flipped for more value, so I don’t understand what the Marlins are doing here and I’m not alone.

Righty rotation filler Jordan Yamamoto is the best player the Marlins received for MVP LF Christian Yelich to the Brewers. Top prospect in the deal CF Lewis Brinson is a bust. Twenty-four year old CF prospect Monte Harrison is a bust too. It’s also how quickly (& predictably) they busted which is very alarming to Fish fans. A bunch of nothing for Christian Yelich and his long, team friendly contract.

RHP Sandy Alcantra LHP & Zac Gallen are nice rotation pieces, as the Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis deal was by far their best trade of this teardown, their third or fourth firesale in franchise history going all the way back to 1993. Second baseman Dee Gordon was a salary dump to Seattle, and nothing materialized from the fringy prospects they acquired.

Catcher JT Realmuto was the last All-Star Derek Jeter & Mike Hill dealt, and he apparently netted a decent return from the Phillies. Catcher Jorge Alfaro is adequate and cost controllable, while prized young righty starter Sixto Sanchez is now a top-20 MLB pipeline prospect. The Phillies got an All-star catcher for a lot of years, so they already “won” this deal on their end. How Sixto Sanchez develops determines if the Marlins “win” their end of the deal, as everything else is now knowable. In summary, the Marlins gave away two MVP’s for nothing, and only acquired quality players in the Marcell Ozuna deal, and possibly the JT Realmuto deal.

The Cincinnati Reds keep making noise like they are players, when all they really have to be excited about is 3B Eugenio Suárez & young RHP Luis Castillo, whom they received from the Marlins for meatball pitcher Dan Strally in January 2017. Luis Castillo had previously been traded to the Padres for RHP Colin Rea in the Andrew Cashner deal on July 29, and then back on August 1, 2016, and this is perhaps the most infamous deal in AJ Preller trade lore.

The Reds were the beneficiary of all that foolishness as the traumatized & confused Marlins front office dealt Luis Castillo again a few months later. The tragic end of Colin Rea’s MLB career was the Marlins’ ugly unspoken organizational shame. When ace RHP Jose Fernandez was tragically killed in a boating accident a few weeks later, the Marlins fate was doomed. Soon after, longtime owner & new stadium swindler Jeffery Loria sold the Marlins for a billion dollars in profit, and Project Wolverine was implemented by new ownership.

Getting back to the Reds who have a history of never developing enough quality starters, they have gone the trade route to acquire a respectable rotation, maybe their best ever and this franchise has been in existence since 1869. Ex-Yankee RHP Sonny Gray has been extended through 2023 at an affordable cost, but RHP Trevor Bauer will be a free agent after 2020. The Reds are still a frontline pitched or two short, with big holes in their line-up. The Joey Votto extension ($25M per year 2020-2023, plus a $7M buyout) is their albatross.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been forced into the second-tier of free agency in 2020, after splashing with RHP Jake Arrieta & RF Bryce Harper the past two winters. Those signings already look bad, and it’s still early, which is scary if you are a Phillies fanatic. RHP Zack Wheeler (5/$118M) is their last plunge, and it better pay off, otherwise the Phils are sunk.

They may be sunk even if Wheeler pitches well, as their roster has too many holes in their line-up, rotation & bullpen. Didi Gregorius (1/$11.75M) at SS is risky & an overpay, which is hard to accomplish with a one-year deal, yet the Phils managed to do it. Very poor planning & money management in Philadelphia already has them near the $208M Luxury Tax threshold. They went for it before they were actually ready, and now they are stuck in the middle. Bryce Harper is their albatross.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are the last NL team to discuss. Once again, they are trading their top veteran player, this time it’s CF Starling Marte, who is age-31 and has two years of team control remaining at $24M. The last place Pirates won’t get much for him, and would do best to keep him, but recall this is the organization that traded ace RHP Gerrit Cole to Houston two years ago. Historically, this is the organization that let Barry Bonds walk. The Marlins are the worst team in the NL, with the Pirates not far ahead of them. With the fall of the Cubs, the NL Central is now the weakest division in the senior circuit.

After coveted 3B Josh Donaldson signs, there will be very few impact players left in free agency who can move the needle on any of this. It’s pitching that everyone needs. The challenge, especially for AL teams like the Rays & A’s, is to identify & sign this year’s Charlie Morton. The AL is tougher on pitchers because of the DH. Therefore the AL’s best & brightest GM’s take the top pitchers first, and leave the leftovers for the NL.

Since LHP Madison Bumgarner garners no interest from the Yankees, Astros or Rays, he has diminished value to their competitors. Notice how they weren’t interested in Zack Wheeler either. A mid-level NL team, or desperate AL team will make Madison Bumgarner (and his like) the best offers in the coming weeks of free agency. But it’s actual performance which drives wins in MLB, and it’s mostly diminishing futures for old starters. This much we know, and the rest will play out and reveal itself next season.

Many top teams don’t stick around for the Rule 5 Draft, as they aren’t making selections. Therefore this writer is also signing off on the 2019 Winter Meetings, because there is no Josh Hamilton available. Here’s a MLB preview of the Rule 5 Draft, and I’ll let readers figure the results out for themselves.

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The Business of Winter MLB

Posted on November 19, 2019 by admin

The Major League Baseball (MLB) hot stove season, which starts after the last out of the World Series, begins with rumors. So let’s deal with them directly, as these are the narratives the movers & shakers will be pushing this winter.

Cleveland Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti has been shopping star SS Francisco Lindor, who has two years left until free agency. Lindor is age 26, and in 5 MLB seasons has hit .288/.347/.493. He earned $10.85M in 2019, as will get another nice raise this winter in his final year of arbitration. That’s considered a bargain in MLB for that level of production.

Cleveland won 93 games in 2019, but missed the post-season finishing 8 games behind the Minnesota Twins. Antonetti already dumped RHP Trevor Bauer at the trade deadline for what he could get. More on that below, but of greater relevance here is the Yankees letting SS Didi Gregorious (2019: 82 games, .238/.276/.441) become a free agent, so look for GM Brian Cashman to make a deal. He’s interested for sure. The Yankees won 103 games, but lost in six games to the Houston Astros in the ALCS. With a Lindor type of upgrade at SS, the Yankees are better, especially with the Astros losing ace RHP Gerrit Cole to free agency.

San Francisco Giants LHP Madison Bumgarner rejected his $17.8M qualifying offer (QO), and is now a restricted free agent. He will likely become this year’s Dallas Keuchel, as both are pitchers with excellent pasts, but diminishing futures. No GM pays for past performance anymore. I speculated months ago that Bumgarner was one of these players who would do better to take his QO at season’s end.

That mid-season prediction appears to be vindicated already, as the market for him is lukewarm (at best), with draft pick compensation tied to his signing. Too many mediocre teams would rather have the draft pick, and the really good teams don’t even want him. That’s how an old, but good, player gets “middled” in free agency with a QO.

Madison Bumgarner in 2019: 9-9, 207.2 IP, 3.90 ERA. He’s age 30, with a lot of mileage, and the injuries are starting to accrue. You can’t go long-term on that. Hypothetically: what’s he worth in a 3-year deal? In this market: around 3/$45M if he was unrestricted. But with draft pick compensation tied to him, only a few teams will be interested, and at lower numbers. One year $10M. Two $18M.

Madison Bumgarner believes he’s worth more, and he’s correct; except it’s the owners & GM’s who set the market. Players have to start looking at their contracts (and CBA) in the framework of management interests vs. player interests as a united whole, instead of individually. The MLBPA (players’ union) sold them out with another bad deal that still underpays players in their primes (young stars), then only pays super-elite players in free agency, while short-changing all the rest.

That’s what the qualifying offer has done to MLB free agency, maintaining an illusion of fairness, while serving the interests of ownership & management. The MLBPA agreed to this, and sold it to the players as a good deal. They should have to answer to all the players, but instead they make excuses and deflect.

RHP Zach Wheeler will be age 30 next season, and is another interesting case. For the New York Mets he pitched 195.1 innings, went 11-8 with a 3.95 ERA. His WHIP was 1.259. It was a career year for Wheeler, and the Mets QO’ed him, but he refused it. So now what is Zack Wheeler worth? He is speculation in potential, for sure, and if some silly team (Angels) loves him with their scouting & analytics, they may make a crazy bid.

Everyone needs pitching, but once again it’s the draft pick compensation that bites. Teams like the Phillies have already publicly declared they value their draft picks. Philadelphia has been a huge buyer the last few winters. They won 81 games last year, and 80 in 2018. The Phillies need young talent to give them a shot in the arm, not more expensive veterans that cost them draft picks & young talent. That’s one less team for Wheeler & Bumgarner to go to, so I question the advice these players are getting from their agents.

Twins RHP Jake Odorizzi did the smart thing, and accepted his QO. He’ll be paid $17.8M in 2020 as a reward for his season in 2019 where he went 15-7, in 159 IP, with a 3.59 ERA for a team that won 101 games & their division. He’ll be age 30 next year, and an unrestricted free agent afterwards, which means he’ll be able to get a decent deal at age 31 because he’ll have no draft pick compensation. That’s how to beat the system, and maximize career earnings. You have to set aside your ego, and be patient.

Longtime LA Dodgers RHP Hyun-Jin Ryu accepted his $17.9M QO last November, and had a great 2019 as he went 14-5, with a 2.32 ERA, in 182.2 IP which led the staff. He’ll turn age 33 next March, but he has no restrictions, so anyone can make him an offer and all it costs is money. Any team that is spending in free agency this winter will be interested in signing him. Ryu was (and is) the test case that proves this QO market effect theory, because starting pitching is what has the most value to GM’s.

Of course I must discuss the San Diego Padres. Besides being a fan, why do I discuss them so much? 1) Because there is so much east coast bias, Padres reporting becomes necessary, as a part of comprehensive MLB coverage & fair balance. 2) They have a most-interesting front office; a GM with ambition & brains, along with ownership that is willing to spend, while being relatively “hands off.” I’ve written this since 2016, the San Diego Padres represent the newest Moneyball darling. They are a lot closer to competing for a World Series title than most people think.

Padres GM AJ Preller has declared that RHP Chris Paddack, and top prospect LHP MacKenzie Gore are ‘virtually untouchable’ in trade talks. Last winter it was the same deal with SS Fernando Tatis, Jr., whom everyone “checked in” on. I’ve pointed out repeatedly that AJ Preller controls much of the MLB trade market through his holding tight to his top-ranked farm system.

The Padres won 70 games in 2019, finished last in the NL West again, and fired their dugout manager Andy Green with less than ten games to go. Ownership wants to win & is willing to spend, and AJ Preller is not happy with his 40-man roster. His entire staff had a long season to look at their young players at all levels, as the Padres were aggressive about pushing players forward. It paid off with Tatis & Paddack, who are studs. It also gave management and scouting a chance to get a large sample size for the rest, to decide who is a keeper, and who can be traded. So look for the Padres to be MAJOR players this winter, especially in the trade market.

Preller & Antonetti have made two major deals in the past two years, the most recent a three-way deal that sent Bauer to the Reds. The Padres got a top CF prospect, and the Indians acquired LF/DH Franmil Reyes. Since the Indians are now shopping Lindor, Preller may get involved in another 3-way deal, since he has the prospects.

The Padres are also shopping OF/1B Wil Myers, who is still owed $68.5M over the next 3 seasons. The Padres will eat most of that to move him, as he’s become a liability on their roster. Wil Myers has already been involved in two of the most analyzed trades in the Moneyball era. We’ll see what his third trade brings this winter.The biggest mistake Preller made here was giving Wil Myers the big contract he hadn’t earned yet. That compounded the original error of trading SS Trea Turner.

Catcher Yasmani Grandal was another QO saga last winter. He eventually signed a $1/18M deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. After being eliminated by the Washington Nationals in the Wild Card play-in game, Grandal finally became an unrestricted free agent. A player can only be offered a QO once in his career.

Yasmani Grandal is now age 31, he hit .246/.380/.468 in 2019 which is outstanding for his demanding position. But teams look at his age, and will probably say he’s too old for an expensive long-term deal. Grandal reportedly reject a 4/$60M offer from the Mets last winter, before scrambling to get his deal with the Brewers, and the wisdom & implications of that have already been discussed. Making a mistake in the QO free agent process can set a player back by tens of millions of dollars in career earnings. 3B Mike Moustakis is another example of this.

The Boston Red Sox are shopping star RF Mookie Betts, who made $20M in 2019, and is due a raise in arbitration. Betts is age 27, and has two seasons left until free agency. The Red Sox won 84 games in 2019, after winning it all in 2018. Flags fly forever, but GM Dave Dombrowski was canned by mid-season, and it looks like a re-build may be coming– sooner rather than later– in Beantown. The Red Sox are maxed out on payroll, so signing free agents isn’t a reality. This is an old pitching staff with serious payroll commitments. Good thing they just won it, because it looks like their championship window has closed. The Yankees are younger, better, and more flexible with their payroll– plus they have a much better farm system.

RHP’s Gerrit Cole & Stephen Strasburg are the top free agent prizes available this winter. 3B Anthony Rendon is great, but it’s ace starting pitching that wins a World Series. Both rejected their QO’s, but their greatness makes draft pick compensation an afterthought for teams bidding for their services. You’re either too good for the QO, or the QO is too good for you, in which case that player should accept it. There is virtually no middle ground on this anymore. That’s the QO conundrum summarized.

Update: Thursday 21 Nov 2019 09:06 PM EST

The first big free agent signing happened soon after this publication, and it merits comment. Yasmani Grandal signed a 4/$73M deal with the Chicago White Sox today. I’m always for the player, so I’m happy he finally got his payday. He’s been underpaid up until now. The White Sox won 72 games in a bad division in 2019. They needed a catcher so this does it. Is it an overpay? We’ll see.

To add some context, all 30 MLB teams had to freeze their 40-man rosters by 8 PM ET on Wednesday, November 20. Any unprotected players are now eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft at the end of the Winter Meetings, which happen from December 8-12 in San Diego. The Rule 5 draft is the last day, and many teams punt on selecting, so they will have already gone home. It is considered an opportunity for weaker teams to make a talent grab. It usually busts, but when down, creative GM’s take chances like this. It’s a smart move for the bottom half-dozen-or-so teams every year.

The significance the Rule 5 draft now has on free agency is that elite teams with deep farm systems won’t be making any free agent signings (big or small), or major trades until the winter meetings are over, because they don’t want to have to add a player to their 40-man roster, and thus expose a prospect to the Rule 5 draft, to get their roster back to trim.

Most will wait until after the Rule 5 draft, then players will start to move– in free agency especially. Most free agent signings and trade deals take a few days to clear the MLB office, so deals can be announced during the Winter Meetings, before the Rule 5 draft, with no impact on the rosters.

Note that the White Sox no longer have a deep farm system, so they aren’t concerned with losing a prospect in the Rule 5 draft. Here’s an analysis piece titled “30 intriguing Rule 5 prospects — 1 for each team,” by Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and Mike Rosenbaum. According to the top MLB prospect writers, here’s the best available White Sox prospect in the Rule 5 draft.

“Alec Hansen, RHP (No. 27) – He looked like a steal when he went from the second round in 2016 to leading the Minors with 191 strikeouts in 2017, when he showcased a mid-90s fastball, 12-6 curveball and hard slider. He since has had trouble duplicating that stuff or throwing strikes (103 walks in 103 2/3 innings), and he posted a 5.45 ERA in Double-A when relegated to the bullpen this year.”

That’s obviously a pitcher no one will select and keep on their 26-man MLB roster for all of 2020. Note that MLB rosters expand to 26 players starting next season. Keep in mind these are the #41 guys on each MLB roster according to the prospect geeks, but the point is whomever the White Sox have as #40 and now have to expose is probably just as bad, so he will attract little interest from Rule 5 selecting teams.

Thus the Chicago White Sox got a jump on free agency by striking early, but I’m pretty sure the Reds, Rockies or anyone else wouldn’t have gone that high for that length on a 31-year old catcher.

What this means is that Yasmani Grandal will have little-to-no trade value if the White Sox should decide to change course. The White Sox usually decide to stick with what they’ve got instead of admitting errors & eating contract, as this is still very much a family run team by longtime owner Jerry Reinsdorf. Everything goes through him, as he is the don of the White Sox.

They signed the player they needed early, but at a premium price. You can’t fill every positional hole through free agency, and there are still a lot of holes on the southside: CF, RF, DH and the entire pitching staff behind young righty Lucas Giolitto, and closer Alex Colomé who is getting expensive in arbitration.

Finally for the White Sox, International draft signing from Cuba 1B Jose Abreu was the other player (along with Jake Odorizzi), who accepted his QO in 2019. He hit .284/.330/.503 in 159 games. His $17.8M salary for his age 33 season is a win-win deal– IMO. Have another nice season, and then you’ll get a fair deal, because you’ll be unrestricted. That’s the QO-accepting player’s mindset.

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Trophy Hunting

Posted on October 27, 2019 by admin

All-in-all it’s just Another Brick in the Wall — Roger Waters, Pink Floyd

President Trump needed a political win to enforce his order to remove US troops from northwestern Syria. So killing Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi during a US military raid in northwest Syria last night is a victory, if it indeed happened. Trump tweeted intimations last evening & “confirmed” it this morning in a press conference. He said that after being chased by US troops, air support & dogs, al-Baghdadi blew himself up, along with his three children, using a vest bomb.

Killing the leader of ISIS, with Russian, Syrian, Iraqi, Kurdish & Turkish cooperation gets Trump a win, and an exit plan for Syria. Trump can now declare victory & leave Syria, if that is indeed his plan. Between 200 and 300 U.S. troops remain at the southern Syrian outpost of Al-Tanf, and no one is saying much about that– yet. Either way, there will still be CIA & US special forces involvement with Al-Qaeda terrorists in Syria.

Donald Trump is impulsive & unpredictable, as he zig-zags on issues of global importance over a whim, but his overall foreign policy strategy appears to be open cooperation with Moscow in Syria, in order to make the Democrats look like the fanatical McCarthyists they are.

For the record, Russia’s Minister of Defense has rejected Trump’s boasts of killing al-Baghdadi along with Russian cooperation, so this could very likely be another Trump publicity stunt to win popularity among his supporters. if that’s the case, then Trump just shot himself in the foot again. Like everything involved with Al-Qaeda & US politics, the truth is hard to get at.

One thing is for sure, Trump is no peacemaker, as these troops are being re-deployed somewhere else in the Middle East war zone. Remember, President Trump has a record $750 billion military budget to play with. Overtures by diplomats about leaving some US troops to “keep the oil from Al-Qaeda & others” [?] have been rejected by all the nations involved, along with maintaining these 1,000 soldiers in Iraq.

Reading the deep state’s intent, it appears the “plan” is for the US military is to blow-up Syria’s oilfields before abandoning them to Damascus, creating another disaster on every level. All forces are now pushing in on the Al-Qaeda terrorists, including their former friends.

Syria & Iraq are no-win wars, debacles unfolding in front of the world’s eyes. It appears Trump wants out of Syria, and is letting US intelligence agencies & establishment politicos take the heat for their Al-Qaeda affiliations. Commenters all over the internet now understand this murky situation much better, and are venting their anger towards the fake media & its puppet-masters.

Trump has already been forced to back-pedal several times on withdrawal, as new Defense Secretary Mark Esper seems to be the deep state’s point man for channeling the Don towards the establishment way of thinking, which is keeping US troops in Syria. Mark Esper has been in the media a LOT lately, I’ve noticed. He’s the new kid on the block. One thing about the NKOTB: I don’t have a favorite.

Iraqi Defense Minister Najah al-Shammari, center right, and U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper, center left, stand for their country’s national anthems during a welcome ceremony at the Ministry of Defense, Baghdad, Iraq, Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2019 (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)

The Syrian pullout is feeding protests & insurgencies– globally. Trump & his planners know he needs to appear to get out of at least one of these “endless wars,” to have any hope of getting re-elected in 2020. But deep state Democrats & Republicans want all these wars to continue, and for Trump to be defeated. That’s the conflict in NYC, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, Washington & Langley right now.

Once again, there’s a ton of fake media propaganda flying around on all sides, with every new development. This Syrian situation could start World War III, so it is up up to Trotskyists/socialists everywhere to take class-conscious action. This is the only way fascism & barbarism can be pushed back & defeated.

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Squeezing out Uncle Sam & Al-Qaeda

Posted on October 22, 2019 by admin

There is a furious ongoing diplomacy war being waged internationally through the media. These Reuters headlines (all from today) tell much of the story. On the US deep state side of the propaganda war, the headlines read like this:

U.S aim is for troops pulling out of Syria to leave Iraq eventually: Pentagon chief [1]

US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper is in Afghanistan acting as a representative of the US deep state. As Trump’s lieutenant, he’s in a tight spot, as he clearly supports troops remaining in Syria & Iraq, but what he doesn’t realize or admit is that it’s already a lost cause.

Syria wants its sovereignty back, and Turkey wants the US-sponsored Al-Qaeda terrorists gone from its border. Russia is the new sheriff in town, and if you are a supporter of the US deep state, that really burns your ass.

Kurdish families stuck in crowded schools after fleeing north Syria conflict [2]

This is a human interest piece on innocent civilians & families of Al-Qaeda terrorists who are all impacted by this. They need our help! We must act!! This is a humanitarian crisis, and we can’t abandon our allies!!!

Syrian Kurdish [Al-Qaeda] forces tell U.S. they met truce obligations: U.S. official [3]

“The commander of YPG Kurdish forces in northeast Syria told the United States he had met all obligations set out in a U.S.-brokered truce, a senior U.S. official said on Tuesday, as Washington warned it would punish Turkey if it resumes hostilities… blah blah blah.” Erdogan obviously isn’t impressed…

Turkey replaces four more pro-Kurdish mayors as crackdown widens [4]

The Kurdish separatists are being persecuted, politically & militarily, for their ties to terrorism (PKK). Who will protect them?

For Syrian Kurds, a leader’s killing deepens sense of U.S. betrayal [5]

This entire CIA/Al-Qaeda alliance is murky-murky, all the way back to its inception with the mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980’s. One of the more-recent sordid chapters in this relationship occurred on October 3, 2019, when U.S. State Department representatives visited the Future Syria Party’s headquarters in the Syrian city of Raqqa to meet Hevrin Khalaf and party president Ibrahim al-Kaftan.

“Yes, there was encouragement from the Americans to set up a party,” Kaftan said. Apparently there was much discussion that the Kurdish YPG militia had become too powerful in the region, as Washington was moving towards mediation in Syria. Hevrin Khalaf was killed a few days later during the Turkish offensive into Syria. Murky, murky.

Calling Erdogan a ‘thief’, Syria’s Assad tours Idlib frontline near rebels [6]
This can be read as a western propaganda attempt to inflame Erdogan, and split him from Assad & Russia, but it’s too late.

Iraq says U.S. forces withdrawing from Syria have no approval to stay [7]
The problem for Washington are the 1,000 US troops that Iraq doesn’t want, as this exceeds their already maxed limit of 5,000. What’s become apparent is that treaties signed & agreed to by the US are worthless, as it’s the ever-changing conditions on the ground that determine their interests & insatiable demands.

This is creating a revolutionary upsurge globally, as US imperialism has been exposed as weak & corrupt to its core. There are over 60,000 US troops stationed across the Middle East, and only the Arab absolutist monarchies want them there.

There are US troops in: Saudi Arabia, Turkey (hard to believe, but still a NATO ally), Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar & Afghanistan. Of course Israel is a “special friend” of Washington, and both deep states have infiltrated, and work closely with, Al-Qaeda proxies. These “endless wars” ever end, they just get shifted around to keep people confused. This began in earnest with 9/11.

Smoke pours from the World Trade Center after it was hit by two hijacjked passenger planes September 11, 2001 in New York City in an alleged terrorist attack. (Photo by Robert Giroux/Getty Images)

The five-day truce in Turkey’s cross-border offensive to allow the withdrawal of Kurdish YPG fighters from the border area ends at 10 pm locally– 1900 GMT; 3:00 PM EDT– today. Or 2200 GMT, depending on whom you read. President Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly stated that Turkey will press on with fighting if the YPG remains in that region.

As he flew to Russia for talks on Syria, Erdogan said hundreds of Kurdish fighters remained near to Syria’s northeast border despite the truce demanding their withdrawal. Erdogan has stated that 700-800 YPG terrorists have been evacuated from the “safe zone” but that 1,200-1,300 more remain as of Tuesday morning.

Right now Erdogan is talking with Putin & Assad on how to crush the remnants of Al-Qaeda in Syria, since the US military “cut & ran” from their allies in the northeast. Washington wants another “timeout” to gain time in hiding & redeploying what’s left of its Al-Qaeda proxies.

But this isn’t so easy, because these YPG “allies” now feel betrayed by the US, and are throwing rocks & potatoes at them as they leave. Erdogan is insisting on sticking to the negotiated agreement, and has already stated he’s turned a “new page” in US-Turkey relations.

US imperialism doesn’t need that oil in Syria, it just wants to keep it away from it’s designated enemies– and Russia & Syria are on top of that list. The US war machine need theaters & markets for its existence, but the greater loss here is the exposure of all this imperialist murkiness to a global audience.

Al-Qaeda has nowhere to go, and the US (which created them) doesn’t want to own up to its own responsibility in Syria. The CIA & US imperialism created this Frankenstein, and watching this mess disintegrate so quickly, one gets a sense that blowback is in the future. There are too many hard feelings & double-crosses here, which means there will be repercussions– sooner or later.

Russia Today has been pumping out articles too. Here’s their latest headlines, which again tell much of the story:

Russian & Syrian forces to deploy to northeastern Syria outside Turkey operation zone – Putin-Erdogan agreement [8]

Trump approves $4.5 million in aid to ‘White Helmets’ in Syria [9]

Quoting RT, “Washington pledged $5 million in aid to the group at a conference back in March. Last May, the Trump administration had announced it would stop funding the White Helmets, only to backtrack a month later and send the group $6.8 million… Trump authorized the latest package on Tuesday, calling their work “important and highly valued.”

In reality, the White Helmets are mercenary scum, as this terrorist organization is funded by MI6 & the CIA. You need to keep your head on a swivel to keep up with Trump’s zig-zags.

This $4,5 million can be seen as a rapprochement for Uncle Sam bailing on them in Syria. “Here, forgive us for abandoning you.” This money will forge a closer alliance between Al-Qaeda & Washington until the money runs out, then these terrorists will need & demand more– and get it. This is what the deep state is for. You don’t think these fanatical idiots could exist on their own, do you?

According to RT, “Currently the White Helmets operate solely in the parts of Idlib province controlled by Al-Qaeda militants. Photographs of armed militants with “White Helmets” insignia, participating in the Turkish-backed ‘Operation Peace Spring’ against the Kurds in northern Syria, have appeared on social networks over the past two weeks.”

There is nothing but hypocrisy here, as Erdogan is claiming to be “cleansing terrorists” in his Syrian offensive, but is actually employing the same mercenaries he’s asserted to the world that he’s fighting.

When it gets this murky-murky in real-world covert ops & terrorism, I put on The Octagon (1980), a ninja classic for relaxation. With a LOT of help from his supporting cast, director, and many others, Chuck Norris kicks ass while not being too concerned about the facts, which wear thin on him.

The martial arts are amazing, particularly Richard Norton as Kyo the killer (and also Longlegs the henchman). But the REAL star is Art Hindle as A.J.– the wanna-be sidekick who goes fanatical in his inimitable American kamikaze stupid style– straight into hari kari. There are three leading ladies in this flick, and two of them get killed. Delicious.

The Octagon is a confused mess, with a lot of dangerous & misleading cliches. For instance, the fat Jew fur dealer as the “underbelly of terrorism” according to US intelligence. But it is still an action classic, just as re-watchable as The Terminator (1984) or Robocop 2 (1990). If you agree, then check out my comments on the linked movie for more STUFF!

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Econ 101: Servicing Debt

Posted on October 12, 2019 by admin

When rich people owe money to other rich people, say for instance corporate banks & hedge fund operators owing debt they can’t repay to the Fed & US government– a bailout eventually occurs. That’s because any bourgeois government is a committee of the ruling class.

So when rich people owe money to working people, say in the form of pension fund obligations, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid– financial theft & bankruptcy of those institutions eventually occurs. There simply is no money for a bailout. The “taxpayers” can’t afford it.

When working people owe money to rich people, in the forms of credit cards, student loans, mortgages, auto loans, medical bills, et al– every form of coercion known to man is used to extract full repayment with interest.

When nations go to war, all foreign debts are cancelled by the rich winners, and heaped upon the poor losers.

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Are you critically acclaimed?

Posted on October 1, 2019 by admin

“Critical acclaim” is a nebulous topic in entertainment, by design. Music, film, theater, etc is meant to entertain, and it’s a business first. Never forget that. Anything beyond this is considered a bonus for fans, but often a negative for the industry. When entertainment becomes art, it educates & electrifies the masses, which is something the establishment always seeks to contain. These are the ideological (political) issues which determine access to art.

Critical acclaim is used as an instrument to manipulate public opinion on art. When an artist is blacklisted, such as the Velvet Underground (Andy Warhol) were in the 1960’s, their records don’t sell. When their catalog becomes unavailable in the 1970’s, they become “critical darlings”– because no one else can hear their music, so critics get a monopoly of opinion. It’s about who controls the narrative. Censored artists also have a hard time touring in any era, due to few good opportunities & low pay. It’s a grind, and it’s the reason brilliant bands like the VU break-up the way they did.

Captain Beefheart is another example of an artist who was censored & undercut by the industry, because he was too far ahead of his time. Beefheart was branded “critically acclaimed” with Trout Mask Replica (1969), and that label unfortunately stuck. If revolutionary artists such as the VU, Beefheart, the Stooges, Graham Parker, Wire, the Minutemen, Husker Du, Sonic Youth, Bikini Kill, et al, are never played on classic rock radio (or any other industry-defined format), then how are music fans supposed to find their music?

Where’s the critics’ support for getting these artists on FM radio, so we can randomly listen to them in our vehicles? This “critic support” doesn’t exist, because “critical acclaim” is a fraud. For decades, the music industry had a stranglehold: payola for radio promotion; distribution through record/CD stores & touring for sales; Rolling Stone magazine, et al for media publicity– meaning favorable critical opinion of established major-label performers.

If you weren’t “plugged in” to that network machinery, then you couldn’t exert much influence, or get paid. The significance of the grunge movement (late 1980’s/early 1990’s) was that college radio stations & indie record labels became an influential force outside of industry control. By the late 1990’s, reaction had set in, and nearly all the college stations & indie labels had been bought-up & corporatized.

This is why the internet rules today, because it democratized music availability– when Napster came along. YouTube & Facebook are social media platforms which exchange content & ideas, and despite the worst efforts of corporate ownership to manipulate users with AI & algorithms, it’s now impossible to keep revolutionary music from reaching listeners– young & old. If you want to find something you will, and that wasn’t always the case.

This is why these “critically acclaimed” (ie- suppressed) artists are now finding greater audiences. Being “critically acclaimed” has always been a fallacy, because it’s the critics who most fear & hate revolution, as it threatens their comfy & lazy pencil-pushing existence. When their “expertise” is called into question, there’s nothing left but blabber & smoke. If these phonies are exposed, they may be forced to get a real job, and they don’t want to do that.

A “critically acclaimed” artist has precisely half the weight of critical opinion in support, and the other half hating. This means everything washes out to a net zero in total impact. Who do you believe as a reader, the positive or negative critic? Comparing critical opinions often comes down to who is the better writer, or worse, who is more powerful in the industry. The problem, of course, is the better (or more powerful) author may be prejudiced. If this person becomes editor, he/she controls the flow of many opinions.

If fact, “critical acclaim” is given more generously to those with little-to-no talent, for the opposite effect, but same purpose. This is the hyped garbage which is elevated by the media, and is meant to replace art. Armies of establishment critics universally praise this gobbledygook when solicited by their paymasters. They must, it’s what pays the bills.

These days the industry prefers to produce its superstars, instead of letting them happen out-of-the-blue, which is why Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber, et al dominate the teen music market. These mega-stars are created (and then re-created) by the industry machinery, and rely on it to sustain their success, which makes all of them easy to control. It’s a long way from John Lennon & Mick Jagger, for sure.

Critics pose as experts by using their learned knowledge of human experience, to consolidate bourgeois opinions on art & pop culture through the media. Take jazz music for example. You can’t be a respected critic in this field, unless you bow down to certain sacred cows– Miles Davis, John Coltrane, Charlie Parker, et al. As a critic, you have lists of all sorts in your head; best songs, albums, players, genres, eras, and so forth. These critics are always ready to pounce on any heresy, with pre-formed sound-bites & arguments. These are the sort of fakers which real artists & serious listeners despise.

But to stick with this example in jazz, let’s say something fresh & revolutionary hits, from an unknown artist, which merits that level of reverence. Will that work be immediately recognized as genius by the critics, on the same level as these acknowledged masters? Not a chance. You see, these experienced critics “know” that no one can be that good anymore, so this can’t be a genius of that order.

That is every establishment critic’s “thought process.” The kids & music freaks LOVE this new prodigy, and share it with everybody. The critics will certainly notice this, because true critical opinion comes from the kids; but the critics will not acknowledge it, or at best be cold & demeaning towards it, because it replaces sacred idols. Their lists are set in stone.

If this new artist is indeed the real thing, then the work will hold up, which means more underground fans, but still no mainstream critical acknowledgement, much less praise. What happens over time is that critical opinion changes, as new critics join the field, as long-standing fans of that artist. At this point, the artist is now “critically acclaimed,” despite the fact that 99+% of their support comes from fans.

Conclusion: If you approach art with the goal of pleasing the critics, then you are on a path towards failure. Most critics don’t care, they only pretend to care using sophistry. There is very little passion for art with critics. But it’s that passion which keeps us young, which connects artists to the kids. Nowhere in this equation is the critic helpful, unless they approach art with historical experience & an open mind.

Music as art is all about the artists & the kids. Once the kids are hooked, they become fans for life. My goal as an artist is to reach everybody, but the kids are always first. Are the kids going to like this? Does this send the right message? These are the questions real artists grapple with during the creative process.

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Saudi Oil & Syriana (2005)

Posted on September 16, 2019 by admin

As they say in The Bible, “There are many, many ways to light Europe.” — Christopher Plummer as Dean Whiting in Syriana (2005)

After a devastating drone strike, for which Yemeni Houthi militias claimed responsibility, the Trump administration & entire US political establishment are lining-up behind the narrative that Iran is responsible for these attacks.

Saudi Arabia now spends ~$68 billion annually on its military, the 3rd largest budget after the US & China. Most of this comes in the form of sophisticated weaponry from American corporations.

But these expensive instruments-of-death were unable to stop a coordinated drone attack from Yemeni militias. This calls into question the usefulness of the Saudi Arabia-US alliance, and the sustainability of the global petrodollar market. A bunch of Yemeni militia techies, possibly (?) using equipment they purchased from Iran, just knocked out a vital choke-point in the global oil supply chain.

Productivity from Saudi Arabia is now halved or worse, and when repairs can be accomplished appears to be a matter of weeks or months. There is much censorship by the Saudi monarchy & its partners in the US. This includes corporate, intelligence & military alliances.

A scapegoat is needed, and quickly. Look for an all-out war drive in the media, against Iran, as a cover-up for this disaster. Expect gasoline prices to rise by at least a dollar a gallon within a month, which is another embarrassment for political leaders during an election cycle, and an added expense for everyone else.

The Trump administration is only the latest version of US imperialism which has laid the groundwork for this crisis, with its unilateral sanctions, embargoes & recklessness. This is about regime-change, and controlling the world’s oil market by force.

The problem for them is that US-Saudi vulnerabilities have just been exposed to the entire world. A US war against Iran looks increasingly unwinnable, based on what we have just seen in the Yemeni conflict.

Pile this disaster on top of the ongoing US wars in Afghanistan, Iraq & Syria, which have all been lost, and global consumers and businesses are about to feel repercussions which are all-too-real. The Houthi militia attack on September 14, 2019 is in many ways blowback from 9/11, which was an inside job.

Movie Time: If you really want to understand what’s going on in the Persian Gulf, with all the conflict & geo-politics, then watch Syriana. It runs 128 minutes, and has at least 15-20 characters of depth who add crucial elements to the film, which means it demands your attention.

That means you have to watch Syriana a few times to start getting the full idea. This film is a masterpiece because it reveals dark truths in its many hidden forms. That’s why it wasn’t a box-office hit. Syriana is the exact opposite of a blockbuster movie, a political film as a work of art.

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Anticipating Hurricane Dorian’s Gray Aftermath

Posted on August 30, 2019 by admin

When a hurricane is coming and you are in the swathe of uncertainty, you prepare. Then you wait & hope it doesn’t hit you directly, or that the storm surge doesn’t flood you out. It’s a mixed-emotional experience, because if your prayers are answered, then it’s someone else’s misery.

The problem of problems is that these storms are becoming stronger & more frequent, and we have no coordinated preparation or response. Too many people still deny global warming as its cause, so nothing is done about it. This is why the Amazon rainforest currently has wildfires burning out of control. It’s the hottest year on record, I’m told.

Turn on the local fake news, and it’s a bunch of media hype, telling you to stock up on more stuff you don’t need. That’s why these hurricanes turn into such catastrophes– most of it is man-made.

If you live in central Florida as of this publication (Friday, mid-afternoon), then you have a few more days to prepare for a hurricane. This is no joke, yet many people don’t really take it seriously. Plan A is to ride it out, and keep everybody safe, with everything intact & dry. That’s all anyone wants to think about.

What your home (and neighbor’s home) cost, goes a long way towards determining how hard you will be hit, your ability to withstand, and how long the response will be. If you live in a working class area, then you should always presume there’s going to be an extended power & water outage.

These “blackouts” tend to follow class lines, meaning richer residential areas will get power back sooner, or never lose it at all, while working class areas will suffer extended utility outages. These monopoly corporations have the power & technology to red line these outages, to appear to be the result of a natural disaster, when in fact it is exploitative class warfare.

Expect no FEMA response, as the Trump administration has raided that budget to build his wall at the Mexican border. This means that whatever inadequate responses you’ve seen in the past– including Hurricanes Katrina, Harvey, Irma, Maria & Michael– will be even less this time.

This basically means that Floridians are on their own. No evacuation order has yet been given, as no one is sure where landfall will be as of this time. Anywhere from the Keys to Jacksonville, with West Palm Beach being the current projection. That’s too big of a “cone of uncertainty” to be useful to most Floridians. When you don’t know, the best thing to do is stay put.

Meteorologists are estimating a Category 3 or 4 storm by landfall. I’ve noticed they typically underestimate the storm’s strength, which is crucial data. Less than a week ago they were predicting Cat 1 or 2 strength upon landfall.

You may live in a residence that can survive a Category 2, or weaker Cat 3 hurricane. But if it’s a Category 4, then you have to go. If you know that in advance, it really helps with evacuating. This is the margin that many Florida residents are living on right now.

Florida is a peninsula, and there’s only one way out by land– north. People in high-risk areas need as much warning as possible, and it usually comes too late, with people being trapped on the highways, running out of gas, or unable to get out of their homes.

If you aren’t hit directly by the hurricane eye, then it’s flooding that becomes the main concern. If you are flooded out, then you are homeless, and everything left in it is ruined. Do you own, or rent? I rent, and this is one reason why. The fact is, there is no safe permanent home in Florida anymore. I’ve been here long enough to figure that out.

Check out this sinkhole map above. Florida sits atop an underground shelf of limestone, which acts as a filter for the aquifers underneath. This supplies all the fresh water. When too many homes are built, and too much of the water is sucked out of the ground, the limestone begins to crumble & gives way, into what is called a sinkhole.

Consider sinkholes to be Florida’s version of miniature earthquakes. Entire buildings & homes can be dragged into the earth, never to be seen again. They have become endemic in the Sunshine State. Revolving cycles of intense drought, then flooding rains, makes even more sinkholes.

“Sinkhole alley” extends across much of central Florida, and everywhere swamps have been filled-in to build residential homes & gold courses, sinkholes pop up. The notorious & sprawling luxury retirement community known as the Villages, is a center for right-wing conservatism & is rabidly pro-Trump. Not coincidentally, the Villages daily newspaper, The Sun, is not allowed to mention sinkholes in any of their writings, even though they are a common local epidemic. Florida politics.

When a hurricane is coming, you must prepare for Plan B, which is evacuating your home. What are you going to take with you, if you have to quickly pack up & haul ass? Where are you going to go? Everyone’s situation is a bit different, but the same with a hurricane. Answering these hard questions BEFORE the storm hits, is how to prepare for real.

A hurricane is a serious natural phenomenon & force of nature, but the devastation it wreaks is fractional compared to that inflicted by the heavy-handed government, police & military response to come. This will be coupled with mass neglect & censorship for those stranded without power, water & internet during the aftermath– in the September heat & humidity.

The reality is that many people have to prepare themselves for a grim future, being made a refuge by this storm, knowing that every level of government will exploit this disaster to enrich themselves & inflict more hardship upon them.

The common response from the rest of the population will be relief that they were spared (this time), and a sense of sympathy & solidarity for those who suffer, knowing it could have been them instead. They key to solving this modern hurricane dilemma is uniting socially, for the benefit of all.

Update: Tue 03 Sep 2019 01:41 PM EDT

Hurricane Dorian stalled over the Bahama Islands unleashing sustained winds of 185 MPH– which is unheard of. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale measures a Category 5 beginning at sustained winds of 157 MPH. Winds at 185 breaks that scale, as this was a Category 6 hurricane which hit the Bahamas.

Storm surge of at least ten feet, meant the low-lying islands are entirely swamped by the rain & ocean. Hurricane Dorian still has the Bahamas in it’s outer bands, so relief efforts haven’t even really begun yet.

This is why Hurricane Dorian stalled, and I never saw this weather map on any network news– local, national or internet. The best data I received while tracking this super-hurricane, was from friends on Facebook. I have a few weather-freak, high school friends– so thank you (you know who you are) for posting these helpful & amazing images!

This map above is crucial data, as it’s the High pressure systems which squeezed this hurricane into stationary rotation at its maximum intensity.

Photo credit: Garrett Black, Air Force Hurricane Hunters

The eye of Hurricane Dorian is is still 100+ miles out at sea, and finally about to pass Florida’s eastern coastline as a weakening Category 3. It’s been over a week of fear-of-the-unknown, and non-stop media hype here in Florida. Kinda like an election… and then what comes after.

This map above is what’s going on in the Western hemisphere, right now– big picture. As anyone can see, we are still in the middle of hurricane season, so there will be more to come. What are we going to do about it?

The closest mainland to the Bahamas is of course– Florida. Donald Trump’s immigration war is about to meet a hurricane refugee crisis. This is why Trump cancelled his trip to Poland, so he could play golf in Virginia. Any time Florida is in play, everyone in politics gets excited.

This is a humanitarian crisis to-be-exploited by the Trump cabal, with ICE repression. This is the high-level, closed-door scheming that is going on, as Dorian’s eye passes northward to the Georgia & Carolina coastlines.

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Donald Trump: shyster gangster

Posted on August 21, 2019 by admin

It never ceases to amaze me, how many ignorant people support such a corrupt & ugly individual? But then again, money & fame are everything in today’s media. Having meaningful content & delivering results are not highly considered, and so we have the Bizarro world of bourgeois politics. This is a problem working people need to fix– and soon.

Pundits ask, “How could a 2020 Democrat attack Donald Trump on the economy?” Most “political expertise” in this field quickly disappears in the responses, as the entire establishment can’t seem to come up with anything of substance.

We’re talking about a US President who has called for repeated Fed rate cuts, while consumer interest rates & the cost-of-living have skyrocketed. Rent & mortgages cost more, food is more, and student loans are oppressive debt; but none of this registers with official talking heads.

That trade war the Trumpster & Co. have started with everybody– China, Iran, Venezuela, EU– isn’t helping any real American businesses or workers. Cuts to the EPA, education, Medicaid, et al. aren’t popular either. Neither is this ICE war on Hispanic immigrants, initiated by the Trumpster’s penchant for whipping up racial hate.

But the Democrats don’t really object, so they won’t bring it up– for as long as possible. That’s why the Blue Dog Democrats keep Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on the fringes– and a tight leash. It’s all anti-Russian & MeToo campaigning from their side of the aisle. They’ll stick with that weak stuff, even though it has been widely exposed as deep state lies & propaganda. Something about old dogs…

So now basically all federal discretionary spending is controlled by the Trumpster for the next year-and-a-half. Most of it will go towards the police-military-intelligence apparatus. How this helps regular folks & student youth, is never explained. Instead it’s the Russians, and/or racist/sexist white men as the root of all evil. All this to keep their fascist conman (and the public) in check.

This is tied-in with social media censorship. Search engines filter content on the internet through algorithms, artificial intelligence, & an army of human censors. Much of it is controlled by the anti-Trump element of the ruling establishment, but all of them act against the interests of democracy & the working classes.

The fact is the Trumpster lost the popular vote by ~3 million in 2016, but he won the Electoral College, critically by capturing three battleground states (PA, MI & WI) with razor-thin margins in each. He won’t get that support he needs again, with an economy in the toilet & about to collapse. For most workers, the cost of living is far out-pacing wages. Good jobs are too few and hard-to-find anymore.

The US President typically takes the blame for that during an election year. It’s a slam dunk campaign for the Democrats, and that’s why their most conservative candidate, Joe Biden, has already been assured the nomination. The real race among the rest is for the VP nomination. Kamala Harris is a black woman in Congress, which check a lot of boxes. That’s why she’s been such a media darling of the early Democratic contenders. Look for someone like her to fill the 2020 ticket. It’s the Democrats’ version of Mike Pence.

We know this political fixing happens, like in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was handed the nomination, despite the over-powering popularity of Bernie Sanders, who ran as a “socialist” alternative within the Democratic party. It was WikiLeaks that revealed these facts & mechanisms to the world, through leaks from a DNC staffer– most likely Seth Rich. Certainly not the Russians– as even the Mueller Report proved, finding no criminal conspiracies, despite endless official “theories” on “Russian interference” from Democrats & their media boosters.

Trump supporters love to spin their leader as bulletproof, because that’s what he wants to hear. They are generally brain-dead when it comes to politics, just like the ego-maniacal Trumpster himself, so don’t expect clear answers from them. As far as the Trumpster’s “liberal” critics, they are a bit less deluded in mind, but more cowardly in heart. They hate Trump, but can’t muster the will to do anything more than post memes on social media & petition their congresswomen. Marxists label this phenomenon as lobotomizing oneself into political impotence.

After being mostly out of the news cycle for a week (necessarily so!) during the mysterious Jeffery Epstein death saga, the Trumpster has thrust himself back into the headlines by tweeting that he is working on a deal to buy the nation of Greenland! Here’s a good question. Does the Trumpster keep any of his promises?

Greenland has a population of ~60,000, and a government, which can be seen as an obstacle to acquisition. Importantly, Denmark provides economic & military aid to Greenland. The idea has been dismissed by world leaders as ludicrous, which it is. Greenland’s Foreign Minister, Ane Lone Bagger told Reuters flatly, “We’re not for sale.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen also pointed out that Greenland is not Denmark’s property to sell, which throws another wrench in the Trumpster grand vision. In a tit-for tat diplomacy move, with the style of a crude gangster, US President Donald Trump then cancelled his meeting with the Danish PM, scheduled two weeks from now. The reason was either a tantrum, or “national security.”

The following in italics is a satirical rendition of the Trumpster attempting to acquire Antarctica, since this is the logical sequel to the Greenland affair.

It’s been a slow news week, censorship as usual, and we desperately need a media distraction so I’m announcing my intention to buy Antarctica. I’m not sure it’s for sale, but my team & I are seriously looking into purchasing this valuable piece of real estate for “national security” reasons. Global warming, which is a myth, has opened up new real estate opportunities.

The original signatories of the Antarctic Treaty are seven countries – Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom – each with overlapping territorial claims to parts of the continent. It must cost them all lots of money to maintain, so why not buy it? We’ll have the Federal Reserve print up more fake money to pay for it, and in return I’ll take Antarctica off everybody hands.

The art of the deal– brilliant huh? In the meantime, I’ll be canceling state visits & cutting diplomatic relations, while applying economic sanctions & “maximum pressure” to those governments who refuse to play ball.

Signed– your fearless leader

These are the methods of a gangster. This is a “businessman” who always lies, then defaults. The Trumpster occupies the White House because his methods are those of the ruling class. Savage & insatiable greed are its characteristics. Hate & fear are its motives.

The deep state, with all its control over the police-military-intelligence apparatus, is its weapon. The corporate media, Wall Street, Silicon Valley & Hollywood all work together to protect their privileged class status. Inequality is what they want: the best for themselves & scraps for the rest– if even that.

When the Trumpster goes into battle, he doesn’t say to his opponents, “I’ll see you in hell,” like conquerors of the past. Instead this modern & privileged sociopath tweets, “I’ll see you in court.” Then his lawyers and other “associates” come into the picture– to handle his dirty laundry. If anyone says one thing out-of-line about him (by his judgment), then “You’re fired!” The truth is the Trumpster is nothing but a chumpster without his legions of hired help, yes-men & go-fers.

These bourgeois leaders are sick in every sense. Deluded by their own egos, too afraid to face hard truths with meaningful words & action. This entire global ruling aristocracy, led by the US, is about to topple upon itself in insolvency. It will then loudly & brazenly declare that it must be saved, because what would working people & our future be without them?

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Hyping “hate crimes”

Posted on August 5, 2019 by admin

Introduction: “May God bless the memory of those who perished in Toledo, may god protect them.” — President Donald Trump, August 5, 2019 at the White House press conference he called for in the video below.

There were two tragic mass shootings over the weekend, approximately 12 hours apart. In Texas, 21-year-old Patrick Crusius of Allen, drove hundreds of miles to a Walmart in El Paso to carry out his assault. As of this publication: 20 dead, and 26 injured. He targeted Hispanics, and the site of this shooting makes it political.

“This attack is a response to the Hispanic invasion of Texas. They are the instigators, not me. I am simply defending my country from cultural and ethnic replacement brought on by an invasion.” These are Patrick Crusius words, which are part of his fascist four-page manifesto published on the internet. Crusius surrendered to the police. This brings the death penalty into play, if found guilty.

In Dayton, Ohio, Connor Betts, age 24, fired dozens of shots, killing 9, and wounding 16 others. He was killed by the Dayton police, in a brief shootout. No motive for this massacre has been established yet.

The video embedded above is Donald Trump’s press conference yesterday (Sunday), in which he begins by praising & thanking the police at length. This is his way of taking credit for a tragedy, while solidifying support for the police state, which contains much of his fascist base. Notice how the President of the United States can barely summon any sympathy for the victims, as he stumbles from one talking point to the next.

“It could have been so much worse… the people of these two great cities El Paso & Dayton (in the important electoral states of Texas & Ohio) are wonderful…” He’s spoken with many bureaucrats, etc… “I’ll be making a statement tomorrow at 10:00 AM (after my advisors brief me on what to say). Thank you very much, and I’ll see you there…”

First lady Melania Trump stands silently by his side on the runway in a bullet-proof corset with a forlorn face. Her eyes masked by dark sunglasses, as she stands uncomfortably. It seems a relief for her when they go the “Q&A,” as the camera pulls in tight on Donald Trump and stays there. There’s so much to understand here…

Both of these gunmen appear to have long histories of anti-social behavior, going back to high-school & before. Both were obviously filled with hate, during their rampages. So why is one labeled a “hate crime,” and the other isn’t?

“Hate crime” has no legal meaning, and therefore no place in law. But this is precisely what is being introduced by politicians through the media for propaganda reasons. The same with only labeling the El Paso shooting as a case of “domestic terrorism.” The cold hard truth is that any time someone fires a fully-loaded assault rifle into a civilian crowd, it terrorizes the domestic population. It is all motivated by hate.

Those in Dayton mostly feel the same way the people in El Paso do right now– shocked & disgusted. These vague, legally undefined terms such as “hate crime” & “domestic terrorism” have no real meaning, as they could apply to virtually any of these cases one cares to look at. Yet these terms are hyped as legitimate talking points by the corporate media fake news. The question is: why?

The “domestic terrorism” label evokes 9/11, and the official need for a stronger military-police-intelligence apparatus. We’ve seen & heard this before, and it’s mostly beating a dead horse by now. Most rational people who follow politics understand that 9/11 was an inside job– all the way to the top. The “war on terror” is a Big Lie, from before the start. These ideas, arguments, facts & evidence have been widely exposed & discussed among the population through the internet– despite blanket censorship in the mainstream media. A new arrow is needed in the US propaganda quiver, and thus “hate crimes” are our latest national crisis, from which we require our elected leaders to save us.

Applying the extra emphasis of “hate crime,” amplifies its racial aspect– by design. This works for both Republicans & Democrats, but against the people. For conservative Democrats, the deep state represents the interests of Wall Street, Hollywood & the intelligence apparatus. The “liberal” plank of the Democratic party is now entirely identity politics; which are the reactionary racialism of Black Lives Matter, the hysterical witch-hunting feminism of the #MeToo campaign, and impotent LGBT activism. These snowflakes, ex-radicals & social justice warriors of the upper middle-class, all favor harsher penalties for “hate crimes.”

Donald Trump’s tweets & speeches always reflect the ideology of his consigliere, Stephen Bannon (above) who correctly states, “As long as the Democrats play racial politics, we win.” That’s because the fascists on the far right are much more passionate & militant, than these limp-noodle liberals on the “left.” Trump held his press conference this morning, and besides already forgetting the victims in Dayton, he proposed a two-pronged “solution” to gun violence.

He advocated for the Democrats to sponsor some new anti-gun legislation, and see how it goes in Congress. He urged Republicans to support this initiative (a sure loser), and hand a political victory to Trump when it fails in the end. We’ll see if the Democrats bite on it. It depends on how much Donald Trump needs Blue Dog Democrats to hand him a political victory. The more the Don needs it, the more likely he’ll get conservative Democrat support– even if it costs them the 2020 election. No one cares that much about Joe Biden. Permanent interests.

Trump’s second proposal was to enhance funding for law enforcement & military integration, along with internet censorship. We knew that was coming, right? He’s already been handed a blank check from the Democrats, and can now spend US taxpayer money any way he wants for the next year-and-a-half. There are no more threats of a government shutdown, which made Trump deeply unpopular, and he can build his promised boondoggle wall at the Mexican border. The threat of impeachment, which began in earnest with Trump’s government shutdown, is now gone due to Democratic party capitulation.

Even rising-star liberal (oxymoron) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez played her part in making it all happen. As you can see in her staged immigration camp “protest” at the fence of an empty parking lot, she’s a pretty good actress for a politician. But house majority whip Nancy Pelosi sat her down privately, and explained the rules-of-the-game. AOC clearly got the message, and last month supplied a crucial vote in getting the initiative to come to the floor. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez then tried to covered her political tracks, by voting “No” on a bill she knew would easily pass both houses. It did, and it couldn’t have happened without her help.

Donald Trump and a tiny cabal of fascists now control much of the allocation of the US federal budget, measured in trillions of dollars. This used to be the primary function of Congress, so what’s left for them? A US President hasn’t needed Congress to declare war for a long time now, and they won’t impeach– so seriously, what’s left?

Trump & top Republicans are sociopathic criminals who control much of the military & police apparatus. They have encouraged & enabled countless lone-wolf sociopaths & armed militia goon squads, which they consider to hold in reserve as “shock troops.” This is the Nazi stormtrooper mentality, and it’s no joke when tacitly unleashed upon society.

The flaccid resistance of liberalism has no chance against this fascist machinery & its tools of violence. Unlike fascists, “peaceniks” are paralyzed with fear when it comes to real guns & serious events. The only social force that can resist & defeat this toxic ideology of bankrupt capitalism is an internationally united working class.

The truth is that everything Donald Trump says & does as President is a “hate crime” and “terrorism.” The same applies to the rest of the Republicans, Democrats & ultra-rich. These people are all haters & criminals. The fake media lies for them on all sides, from CNN & MSNBC to Fox & Breitbart. The propaganda they broadcast, poisons the public mind with lies & hate. These are “specialist hate criminals.” They come in all varieties, and always proclaim their innocence. This is the Black Hand, the true master of the Big Lie.

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Ric Size

Songwriter, Musician, Artist

Category Archives: Economics