The Swift & Sudden Death of U.S. Liberalism

Posted on November 12, 2016 by admin

The collapse of the Democratic party, that was noted here on Election Night, is now in full view for all to witness. With nearly all the returns in, Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. popular vote by a (likely) margin of 1-2 million votes, despite losing the Electoral College which actually determines the presidency. Young people & energized Democratic party supporters everywhere are protesting the unfairness of this whole process, and they certainly aren’t giving any mandate to Donald Trump & the Republican party; yet all the major Democrats from Barack Obama to Hillary & Bernie on down, have pledged their support to an individual they had labelled as “dangerous” and “unfit” for over a year.

The air of unreality that pervades this whole post-modernist political drama makes it difficult for most observers to comprehend what’s going on? We the people are expected to absorb all this, much the way a television drama cuts to a commercial during a suspenseful climax. We are trained to go from watching the near death of our beloved hero, to soap commercials, and not question its rationality or propaganda message. TV leaves you on hold for next week’s episode, promising that by then everything will work out. That analogy applies here.

Class forces are in play, and make no mistake, that is what is ruling the day behind the scenes. The Clinton’s have been hustled off-stage, and escorted (by limousine) into political exile. Their hundreds of millions in money wealth will ease them. Hillary Clinton didn’t even bother to face the camera and speak to her shocked & disbelieving supporters (who needed SOMETHING from her) the night everything went down. That points to her overall class contempt for those who actually work & care, as well as her own personal gutlessness & banality. Not a serious thought in her head, really. [1]

The same goes for bourgeois feminism, black racialism (BLM), and LGBT activism; all of whom have nothing helpful to add. At this point identity politics must be seen for what it is; a middle-class construct meant to enable fear-mongering of sexism, white racism, and homophobia– all meant to stranglehold any class-conscious political discussion.

To be a socialist, one must understand events from a class perspective. Regardless of how the average U.S. voter decided (Dem/Rep), they are going to be the ones paying the bill under Trump’s capitalism. The working class vote for this demagogic billionaire was a Molotov cocktail thrown at the ruling establishment, but the only victory most of his supporters will get is similar to the vicarious pleasure of watching a favorite team win the Super Bowl. You get bragging rights and you can wear some paraphernalia to show others you are superior, but it really doesn’t help your everyday situation. You’re on your own for that, buddy.

That was the deal in voting for ANY capitalist party candidate, including the Libertarians & Greens. The plurality of the eligible electorate actually didn’t vote of either major party, as you can see here [2]:

This “Silent Plurality” remains ignored by most bourgeois commentators. When accounting for the billions of dollars that were utterly wasted on this entire ‘Election 2016’ campaign, it must be recognized for what it was, which is the worst boondoggle in political history in terms of cost & content. Nothing was ever seriously discussed, from domestic jobs & living standards to global warming & militarism. The corporate media was complete filth on every channel, and online, from start to now.

Any remaining energized Democratic party supporters that are still protesting, must soon come to the conclusion that their party is dead. The Democrats were set-up to win, yet collapsed in the face of economic realities. They offer no resistance to fascism, and in fact are now in league with them. They always were.

The best elements of the youth, workers, and all these above-mentioned disparate & shattered movements must find the correct political orientation, otherwise they will end up as worker ants without a queen, atomized & left to perish without leadership.

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Fascism Wins Election 2016

Posted on November 9, 2016 by admin

A political earthquake has just struck, as fascist billionaire and Republican candidate Donald Trump has won the 2016 U.S. presidential election. In what was supposed to be a victory party for long-time Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton, turned into an exposure of what she truly is– the biggest loser in modern political history. [1] This is a woman who married for power, stood beside her President husband after he was impeached in 1998 for lying about his extramarital affairs, then lost the 2008 Democratic primary (in which she was heavily supported & supposed to easily to win) to up-and-comer Barack Obama. Hillary played it smart & surrendered gracefully in ’08, settling for Secretary of State from 2009-13, authorizing & condoning war crimes in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya & beyond…

This ‘2016 Election’ was to be hers, but it kept hitting snags from the start. Bernie Sanders challenged Hillary from the left, and won 13+ million votes by identifying himself as socialist, meaning he stumped against the corruption of the Clinton’s & their like. Wikileaks dumps later revealed that high-ranking operatives in the Democratic party manipulated funding away from Sanders and towards Hillary Clinton in the primary. This may have been decisive for the Clinton campaign in outlasting Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination.

If Bernie Sanders had won, he likely would have easily defeated Donald Trump (by 12-15 points according to polling), or any other Republican candidate (Rubio, Cruz, Bush…) by a closer but comfortable margin. Sanders shilled for Hillary Clinton after his concession at the Democratic convention, but most of his supporters abandoned him and his ‘new’ message. Many of Sanders’ primary supporters switched to Donald Trump in the general election, on the basis of BOTH their appeals to the working poor, which acknowledged the bad economy for most laborers.

The most-cited reason for young & newly-registered voters in choosing Donald Trump was their intense hatred of Hillary Clinton. The message to the ruling class was, when you put every resource in politics (Wall Street, the military/intelligence apparatus, Hollywood, etc…) behind the most obvious phony ever, the American people say “Fuck you!” and ‘choose’ a fascist bigot instead. Since there was no other choice, frustrated working people figured this would make a lot of rich people unhappy, and maybe feel some of their pain. It’s not so much stupidity, but class spite that motivated so many. The message has been received. Stock markets around the world have been sent roiling, as this is considered a disaster around the world.

Americans should step outside of themselves for a moment and start considering this (and other matters) from an internationalist perspective. A dangerous person has just become President of the United States. Make no mistake, Trump’s fervid supporters are among the most ignorant & brazen forms of human scum. Racists, bigots & haters are about to be set loose under Trump’s mandate. This is equivalent to Adolf Hitler being appointed chancellor of Germany on January 30, 1933. Even a few days ago it didn’t seem possible, and yet the impossible has now happened. [2]

The only positive that comes from this is that it is now obvious (to most) that human civilization has reached a crossroads. The necessity for organization, militancy and action among workers & youth everywhere just became much clearer. If Hillary Clinton had won, there would still be too many self-satisfied pseudo-intellectuals (feminists, black racialists, gay rights activists, etc…) posturing as progressives, while living as opportunists– protecting their own comfortable existence & nurturing their idealist fantasies. They have been a source of too much political confusion for too long, and in many ways they are most responsible for Donald Trump becoming president. Their blind support for Hillary Clinton (lesser-of-two-evils nonsense) in spite of her vast criminal record was unconscionable. These liberals ‘study’ the issues carefully before the election, check their ballots, then expect everything to be taken care of one way or another. Hillary was to be the answer to all their illusions, which have now been smashed on the rocks of sexist hypocrite Donald Trump.

Marxists remain objective in their assessment for the prospects of these liberal supporters, who have no explanation for what just happened. For many, their biggest disappointment in all this is the denial of their vicarious pleasure of this final feminist conquest. Many will be heartbroken for days over this.

For serious people, these are now serious times. The Clock on Humanity which was already been ticking, has now been sped up. A socialist revolution will be the objective task for the near-future, as there is nothing left resembling respectability in bourgeois politics. This ‘election’ was a disgrace on every level, as one fascist ego-maniac has smashed both political parties in 18 months time, proving the decrepitude of the existing U.S. two-party system.

It’s now the Wild West in Washington. The military, intelligence agencies and Wall Street will now begin to act more autonomously as President-elect Trump much resembles Hitler’s personality in his inability to think clearly and remain focused. Power vacuums will pop up like mushrooms everywhere, and power brokers will battle for political influence behind the scenes in an administration headed by an unstable, yet all-powerful individual.

Neither side was going to accept this ‘election’ result, so now the real war begins. For those interested in the fate of humanity, now is the time to strengthen political consciousness & resolve with Marxism. Socialism is the only solution, and anyone who says differently is a traitor to humanity. The traditional Republican party is now openly fascist, while Democratic liberalism is dead. Strikes, walk-outs, sit-downs and any other labor unrest needs to be wildcat in nature, meaning the trade union bureaucracy (controlled by the Democratic party and enforced by the mafia) must be cast aside & thrown out. Workplaces & factories need to begin organizing and uniting, as a massive police-state repression looms on the horizon. There is no running from this fight. The intention of Donald Trump and his supporters is clear, no respect for humanity or anything else. This must be met with resolve and physical force, as these people understand nothing else.

This become the fight for human survival: socialize or perish.

Final Update 2-25-17:

Whatever Donald Trump’s ego and unpredictability may bring, it’s no match for deeper class forces which are bearing down with full force upon his presidency. In his first month, Trump has proven himself highly sensitive to any criticism, which makes him extremely vulnerable to manipulation. His fascist aides (Sean Spicer in particular), now appear to have total influence on his decision-making. Trump’s only counter to this is the threat of their removal, which seems unlikely as he completely relies upon them. Remember, this is a president with no actual brains or scruples, only cunning avarice & delusions-of-grandeur, who is considered a ‘loose cannon’ by significant sections of the deep state. In this, he much resembles Adolf Hitler in that: 1) he can’t focus and is defined by his volatility; 2) he initiates high-level power struggles, then allows them to fester out-of-control at the cost of destabilizing the state; and 3) both were/are led-by-the-nose by their propaganda minister– Sean Spicer/Joseph Goebbels.

If we have fascism in America (and we certainly now do), then Donald Trump is obviously Adolf Hitler. The important Marxist theoretical question becomes, who is Joseph Goebbels? It is now clear that the propaganda-manipulating mastermind connecting Donald Trump to the deep state is White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer.

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“Election 2016” & Upcoming Political Tasks

Posted on November 5, 2016 by admin

Less than a week before Election Day, and a New Times/CBS poll reveals 82% of voters primarily feel disgusted about the 2016 campaign, while only 13% claimed to be excited. [1]

The primary vehicle for Hillary Clinton securing this election was hitching her campaign to Wall Street & the Pentagon, along with the vast intelligence apparatus including the NSA & CIA. In “Election 2016” (it was a TV show), the Democratic candidate attacked a fascist Republican billionaire from the right [!].

The red-baiting of Donald Trump (through unsubstantiated Russian connections meant to deflect damaging Wikileaks dumps) was their most-successful strategy, as Hillary Clinton has held her lead, despite all the content (which is never actually discussed in mainstream media) exposing her criminality in everything from rigging the Democratic primary against Bernie Sanders, to war crimes as Barack Obama’s Secretary of State from 2009-13.

Facts are stubborn things (Lenin), but during “Election 2016” they are merely whisked away by a servile corporate-controlled mass media and its partners all the way down to PBS. Even Facebook (arguably the most influential social media tool) manipulated its trending, in order to help Hillary Clinton. [2]

The most important issue of this political period is the escalating crisis of unending U.S. wars in the Middle East, which has now dragged Russia into Syria. Top Pentagon brass are openly discussing war scenarios with Russia (which all end in mutually assured destruction), and neither candidate (or anyone else!) is ever pressed to discuss a peace option– which is what most people want.

The issue domestically is the Great Recession, which continues to get worse for 90+% of the people. Polls show at least 82% have it on their minds, yet we never hear any believable, concrete proposals that will make anything better. What’s assured is more unemployment & job insecurity, less healthcare with higher premiums & deductibles, more student loan & credit card debt, with a lower quality-of-life, etc…

Not a single serious discussion occurred on global warming during the entire (~18 months) of this presidential campaign. It’s still here, and only getting worse. Only complete human madness would allow this rule of ignorance to continue.

Hillary Clinton will surely ‘win’ on November 8th. This was decided long ago, behind closed doors, where the ‘deep state’ decides what’s best for everyone.

The ‘deep state’ is the Black Hand, the hidden puppet-master, which must be ultimately addressed after “Election 2016.” They control both political parties, the military & intelligence apparatus, finance capital, the police, organized labor, crime & religion. They are the Godfathers, and they are ruthlessly determined to maintain the status quo. They will have to be defeated ideologically, spiritually, then physically.

This means it’s now time for workers & young people everywhere to begin their own political dialogue. Socialism means workers own the means-of-production, which necessitates taking control of the workplace from the capitalists. In revolution, this occurs by any means necessary. Peaceful methods are always best and those options should be explored & exhausted before before moving in force. The ruling class fears this above all else, as the working masses outnumber them decisively.

It doesn’t take much insight to realize the police & military are mostly composed of working-class soldiers. This is where socialist propaganda should be intensified, with the goal of united the working class and the best elements of a disenfranchised military/police force, into a fighting militia of the working people.

Trotsky’s Theory of Permanent Revolution means society is constantly revolutionizing & harmonizing itself, to the fulfillment & benefit of all. Young people must become more aware of worker struggles & strike activity around them, for if they don’t the reality of wage concessions & give-backs to corporate shall become the only job market they will ever face.

This is the only program for youth & workers to defeat capitalism.

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Notes on ‘Soft Power’

Posted on October 24, 2016 by admin

Gleaned from ChangingMinds.org [1]

Power is the ability to get what you want. As what you want is often constrained by other people, the use of power often includes changing or influencing what others think, believe and do. It is at the heart of many techniques of changing minds.

Understand the power you have, as well as the power of other people. Use your own power carefully. Perhaps the greatest power you can have is to get others to use their power on your behalf.

Beware of sleeping dragons, many people will only use their power when aroused. The most effective power is that used so subtly that people do not realize it is being used.

Power does not have to be used directly: threats are often effective, especially when accompanied by displays of power. Like gorillas thumping their chests, we seldom need to fight.

When we talk about power, we can consider it as somewhere on a spectrum from ‘soft’ to ‘hard’. It can be difficult to define soft power, because it is such a subtle force. A way of defining it, is to start with what it is not.

Hard power

Hard power is, at the hardest, about physical coercion. Incarceration and physical punishment, control of the body is degrading but necessary for those who might otherwise harm others. It is also used in times of physical warfare and for repression of dissent.

Mental coercion, including blackmail and making other threats that create fear, is also hard. Fear is a characteristic of hard power. People comply because they fear punishment or being harmed in some way.

Moderate power

Much power is moderate. It is not hard, nor is it soft. Much of the power in society and in organisations is moderate. There is power from the positions that people are given, power from the resources that are held, and power from the individual influence people have. Yet seldom is this used in a hard way.

Power that might be hard is moderated by rules and regulations that control how it is used. Managers who once might have been rather coercive now have to consider employment law and company values. People in society who once may have threatened others must consider both laws and social norms. In fact most people are considerate of others and would balk at the thought of using hard power.

Soft power is a concept coined by Joseph Nye of Harvard University to describe the ability to attract and co-opt rather than coerce.

A defining element of soft power is that it is passive. It does not seek to persuade. It just is. It envelopes but does not resist when pushed. It goes with the flow, though it does not flee. It follows and stays in touch.

Soft power works not because it seeks to directly influence, but through subtle and indirect means. At best, it is completely undetectable. It goes around obstacles. It seeks inattention. It inveigles its way in through neglected routes. It spreads without notice.

Soft power does not ask. It shows. To create behavior, just act in the way that you want others to act. Seeing your behavior as worthy (and you as worthy), others may hence seek to imitate you.

Soft power works well for transmission of values. I act consistently with what I believe. If others see and appreciate these behaviors they may start to act in similar ways. And, by the principle of consistency, they will consequently change their beliefs in order to sustain internal harmony.

At its best, soft power connects, bonding with others. This connection of identity joins two people as one. When they become as you, then they will align in all ways. Soft power may seem to have little power, yet it can have far greater effect than hard power.

Have you ever been in an organization or a social group where one person is really likeable? They do not seem to ask much but somehow they have a huge effect on the group. Opposite to the effect of a ‘toxic’ personality, they seem to infect everyone around with their calm and positive ways.

In Tai Chi and other soft martial arts, soft power works by connecting so softly with the other person that they cannot feel your touch. In the connection, you sense where they are and hence can avoid their attacks, destabilize them and lead them in any direction of your choosing. Martial arts can also be hard, yet the softer arts, once mastered, are by far the most effective.

Beyond the good cop-bad cop routine, much can be achieved in interrogation through softer methods. Hard methods may break the weaker-willed, but those who know the most will likely be made more resistant by oppressive methods. A better way is to connect with the person, showing sympathy and interest in their lives and breaking through the tough stereotype, getting through to their confidence.

A good public speaker can move millions with soft words that connect and sway opinion. Speeches can also be hard and threatening, but they do not connect the speaker with the audience. The master of soft power in speaking can easily be seen as a saint and gain followers who will follow them to the ends of the earth.

Much use of power is short-term, with immediate or near-term goals. The use of soft power is a long game, with no immediate goals. With the advent of global markets and the Internet, the influence of other cultures and individuals is everywhere. Even if you do not use the internet, you are massively affected by it through the perceptions created in the people around you.

If you have the time and inclination, you can achieve much with the subtle and steady use of soft power.

How do powerful people behave? Here are some of the things they do, and why. In particular powerful people act either to get what they want or simply to sustain and enhance their power.

Using symbols

Powerful people often use the symbols of power to demonstrate to others that they are powerful. They dress in expensive clothes, drive new and powerful clothes. They have powerful friends and let others know this.

Power is often illusory, and is as much about confidence as anything else, with power being ceded by those who believe they have less. Symbols are consequently a part of the tool-kit that ‘powerful’ people use to persuade others that they have more real power than they perhaps have.

Truly powerful people are often understated in how they dress and how they use symbols. By an almost reverse psychology, they say ‘I do not need symbols’ and they live more by their reputation and the quiet knowledge that they can get everything they need. The symbols of power are still significant but in their absence rather than their presence.

Speaking more or less

Depending on whether they have a psychological need to be heard or not, powerful people will speak more or less. The more extroverted people will take the stage and pronounce for a long as they like, quite possibly in a louder voice.

Others will wait quietly then speak briefly but forcefully. Speaking at the end, after others speak is a distinct technique as it allows the person to take account of the useful information gained by listening to others. It also allows the powerful person to praise or criticize other speakers. As others have already spoken, it also allows the powerful person to close the conversation or change topic.

Rule-breaking

When speaking, powerful people will interrupt more. When they want to speak, they will speak rather than waiting politely for others to end. Speaking when they want is an example of how powerful people will break rules.

Powerful people will also touch others, breaking rules of ‘no touch’. This needs to be done with care and within stricter cultural rules, for example touching only on the arm, back and shoulders. Stronger rule-breaking may include patting on the head and gripping the other person.

Rule-breaking may be deliberate, to demonstrate the person’s power. It may also enhance power, for example when they interrupt another person, thus showing they are more powerful, pushing themselves up the hierarchy and the other person down.

Rule-breaking may also be unthinking as the powerful person is so accustomed to getting what they want that without criticism, they may act recklessly, damaging everything around them. On the other hand, they may use it as a deliberate signal, showing that by breaking a rule once they can choose to do it at any time they like.

Trusting more

When less powerful people trust more powerful people they may be putting themselves in danger, as when conflict arises between them, the powerful person will likely win. Less powerful people consequently are less trusting of more powerful people.

In the reverse case, powerful people know they punish others if they are not trustworthy and that they have the means to extricate themselves from a damaging situation. In this consequence there is less risk for them to trust and so they trust more.

Thinking less

People with less power may be harmed by people with power so they think carefully before speaking to powerful people. And because powerful people do not have to worry about what others might think about them, they think less before speaking.

Also, because they have the power to change decisions, they often think less before making decisions. On the other hand, if the decision might affect their power then they will be more cautious. For example a rich person will spend a smaller sum (which seems large to the average person) with impunity, whilst they will be more cautious spending large sums.

Thinking more

People with a focus on power may also think more, deliberately using the methods in this article in order to signal that they are powerful. Power is often ceded by those who perceive they are less powerful, and this response may be purposely prompted.

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Dischord: How to Run a Record Label

Posted on October 13, 2016 by admin

Ian MacKaye is a musical artist and founder of the punk bands Minor Threat and Fugazi.

Both bands were formed in the 1980’s, and both are today considered legendary & seminal by hardcore punks.

Their music is still available, because Dischord Records owner Ian MacKaye retained control of his music. [1]

Instead of selling his catalogue to a major label for big money, MacKaye decided (a long time ago), to put artistic community and free expression ahead of a pile of cash. [2]

The correctness of this approach is in the fact that his tiny independent record label which was formed in 1981, still exists and is thriving. [3]

Dischord Records has an impressive roster of punk bands (current & past), with pressing, distribution & promotion deals for the artists on their label. [4]

It takes brains, guts, and a ton of hard work to succeed the way Dischord Records has.

Now in their 35th year, this is a model for how an artist should manage their career; make great original music, control the copyrights & publishing, record everything when active– then retire on time and build a killer website for promotion & online commerce of the back catalogue.

Discord Records lives on because people always care about great music.

I’m taking a walk on the yellow brick road
I only walk where the bricks are made of gold
My mind & body they’re the only things that I’ve sold
I needed the money cause I’m getting old

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Shittiest Election Ever

Posted on September 29, 2016 by admin

The great Russian revolutionary leader & theorist Leon Trotsky once explained why swearing needs to be checked & controlled. The synopsis is the reason people swear and use obscenity is because they have ceased to think and are acting on rage. This is dangerous behavior in that it inevitably leads to uncontrolled violence in the service of fascism. Trotsky, more than any political figure since Karl Marx needs to be understood in all his wisdom & prophecy.

With that understood, swear words are part of the human language and good writers are always compelled to use the best words– in terms of accuracy & description. In the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the best descriptive of everything that has been brought to the electorate by the ruling class, both political parties, and the corporate-owned mass media is shit.

This shit-show which has been thrown in the American public’s faces every day & night for over a year, is a disgrace to human culture and an abomination of anything decent in civilized history. There are at least 10 million American citizens over age 35, who are better qualified for the office of U.S. president than this shit.

These candidate are human feces. Just look at them physically, and you will see nothing attractive from either one. Just like what you see in the toilet before you flush. What comes out of their mouths, is even worse.

For those who advocate lesser-of-two-evilism, consider this analogy. You’re handed two plates of steaming shit, one conservative & one liberal. Which one do you choose?

When you boil it down to shit, it gets real quickly because everyone understands it. We all have shit, and most of us dump it into religion/politics. That’s why we have all this shit. People need to become active and starting organizing, before this shit gets any more out-of-hand. These shitheads are talking about nuclear war with Russia.

Those who lecture “don’t complain if you don’t vote,” let their brains go to shit a long time ago. They make up the majority of voters. Can’t win against that shit, so don’t play.

Anyone with at least a partially-functioning brain can clearly see the whole capitalist system has gone to shit, with the ‘choice’ down to a fascist business gangster vs. an establishment political gangster. All propped-up and defended with bullshit.

Any so-called ‘3rd party’ candidates funnel into the Republican (Libertarian) or Democrat (Green) party, proving their worthlessness. Same shit, different package. Take notice how quickly the Bernie Sanders ‘revolution’ came & passed. Like shit through a goose.

We need a revolution to avoid a really shitty ending for humanity. Anything less is just turds circling the bowl.

Working people & youth are better than this shit.

It’s time we start handling it.

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Update 11-09-16: Shit hits the fan. Trump eats that bitch for breakfast.

Socialism vs. Third-Party Opportunists

Posted on August 13, 2016 by admin

The World Socialist Web Site has been linked many times in these writings. The WSWS has provided daily political analysis (6 days/week) since 1998, and is the most actively revolutionary website on the Internet. Its archives are rich in classical Marxist analysis of issues ranging from the Bill Clinton impeachment, right up to the present. Their coverage is global, with a daily readership of 50K+. [1]

The Socialist Equality Party (SEP) is the U.S. political branch of the WSWS. The SEP is running Jerry White & Nile Niemuth as their presidential and vice-presidential candidates. [2]

If you vote this November, I encourage you to write them in. Be sure to then photograph your ballot, before submitting it. Who knows how it will be counted?

There are other bourgeois alternatives to Democrat Hillary Clinton & Republican Donald Trump. Here’s a quick update on the two major players– the Greens & Libertarians.

The Greens are arm-chair activists, phony environmentalists, and cowardly middle-class ex-radicals, who insist that government can be reformed & must be part of the solution. The Greens funnel directly to the Democrats in everything.

Here’s “An Open Letter to Bernie Sanders” published on their site:

“We want to congratulate you on the work that you have done to support Bernie Sanders’ campaign for president. You self-organized to phone bank and reached 75 million voters. You created a social media machine that overcame the commercial media’s attempts to ignore the campaign. You created cool swag, wrote songs and cooked ‘Feel the Bern’ hot sauce. You painted your cars, your houses and giant murals with the words and likeness of Bernie. It was amazing.” [3]

Not a word on Bernie Sanders’ capitulation to Hillary Clinton’s right-wing machinery, nor any serious discussion of the U.S.-led wars raging in the Middle East, and beyond. Their mailing address proves them as Beltway-influenced as the Democrats:

Green Party of the United States
PO Box 75075
Washington, DC 20013
202.319.7191

How many people knew the Greens just held their convention in Houston, Texas– August 4-7? This is noteworthy in the lack of media coverage. Political alternatives to the Democrats & Republicans are strictly censured by capitalism.

The Libs are to the Reps, as the Greens are to the Dems. Both act as safety valves when these major parties fail to adequately capture their constituency. The Libertarians are a complete mess at this point, which is not surprising considering the state of the Republican party. [4]

Libertarians are ‘loonies’ in mainstream political terms, meaning they are crazy– but considered harmless. Libertarians are never taken seriously, and are only used as pawns by right-wing power brokers. This video below actually happened on 5-29-16 in Orlando, FL at their convention:

Libertarian candidate for president is Gary Johnson:

“My charitable contributions would be negligible — I mean just, really almost non-existent,” the former New Mexico governor told CNN. [5]

The other most-memorable moment in Libertarian party history (founded 1971) happened in 1994, when radio shock-jock Howard Stern bum-rushed the Libertarian convention and secured their nomination for governor of New York.

Stern only withdrew his candidacy in an on-air press conference months later, because he refused to disclose his financial records saying: “I spend 25 hours a week telling you all the most intimate details of my life … One fact I’ve never revealed is how much I make and how much money I have … it’s none of your business.” [6]

The Libertarian Party’s vision is for a world in which individuals can freely exercise the right of sole dominion over their own lives and property. [7]

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AJ Preller’s Padres: Youth & Upside

Posted on August 11, 2016 by admin

Steal City: Jankowski swipes home for 2nd time 8-10-16
The screenshot thumbnail shows what a great athlete CF Travis Jankowski is, as he touches home plate with his right hand, while running nearly full-speed & avoiding the catcher. He would have likely been out, if not mishandled, but it’s his speed which applied the pressure that made PIT crack. That needs to be the limit of his daring on stealing home, as a playoff team would have nailed him. Still: 25 SB, 5 CS is excellent all-around. He’s had a few replay calls turned against him, which proves how fast he is to the umpires on the field. Padres fans also love his defense and .378 OBP.

Jankowski has replaced Jon Jay, beautifully. The Federalist may still be traded, if he can recover from his broken wrist and clear waivers by 8/31. Padres really can’t QO him, and he doesn’t fit their roster anymore. Otherwise he’ll remain as a 4th outfielder. We’ll see…

Padres unconditionally release Olivera 8-10-16
Green said Wednesday that he had discussions within the organization to make sure that the Padres’ Minor League affiliates are cognizant of the replay process at the Major League level — even though it doesn’t apply in the Minors.

“We have to really do a better job, even if it costs us at the Minor League level, of holding the bag longer and holding our tags longer, and driving tags through guys,” Green said. “Those are things that you’ve just got to clean up as an organization.”

That’s leadership (Green & Preller) getting ahead of the curve. Great news for an organization that has been mostly behind. It’s why so many Padres fans are excited, despite their current 4th-place record. This team sold off all its contracts at the deadline, and got better! Padres are younger (upside & cheaper), with better OBP & defense. More power comes with age and experience. Solid planning & execution, from Padres ownership & management; through to the coaches, scouts and the rest of the organization.

By officially releasing 3B/OF Hector Olivera, Preller proves this deal was a pure salary dump of RF Matt Kemp to ATL. Padres eat $28.5M on Olivera. The Braves get shifted $10.5M of the LA Dodgers money (from SD) on Kemp’s deal, and owe the remainder of this year, plus 3 more years at $21.75M/year.

Padres got a season and two-thirds out of Matt Kemp and paid him ~ $15M ($3.25M in 2015 + ~$12M in 2016), plus the $28.5M on Olivera for a total of ~$44M. That’s an over-pay, (for sure), but not a disaster– due to it’s short length. The longer an albatross hangs, the more it costs. Kemp was likely foisted upon Preller, by an over-eager new Padres ownership group in 2014:

Padres fans thank RF Matt Kemp for his professionalism, and for hitting for the only cycle in franchise history in 2015. Now, only the Marlins (existed since 1993) have not had a player hit for the cycle.

Padres remain the only MLB franchise, w/o a no-hitter pitched.

A. J. Preller did a masterful job, dumping a losing player (currently .285 OBP) onto an organization that (obviously) has no idea on winning. This opportunity came about for the Padres, because the Braves couldn’t handle their own mess. When Hector Olivera became a PR disaster that wouldn’t go away, Preller swooped in and handled it for them, while dumping the player he HAD to trade– at minimal cost to the Padres. ATL fans and coaches can argue Matt Kemp’s merits, but they need to realize Braves GM John Coppolella should have made the Padres eat more themselves, instead of just transferring Dodgers money ($10.5M). Call the Padres’ savings on Kemp, A.J. Preller’s ‘handling fee’ on Olivera, doing what the Braves should have done long ago.

The Matt Kemp dump may have been the most brilliant deadline deal A. J. Preller made. It clearly made NYY GM Brian Cashman take a closer look at the A-Rod situation, and arguably influenced the Yankees actions. The mighty Yankees were getting shown up by a West-coast ‘small-market’ team willing to eat ~$70M to improve themselves. It was only $27M for the Yankees, who have now done what the Padres already did. Notice, the Padres have done more, with much less– due to AJP’s skill & creativity. Of course the Yankees get more hype on this, because they’re the Yankees.

Padres welcome back versatile lefty Richard 8-7-16
This must certainly be better than LHP Matt Thornton (Age 39, 17 IP, 5.82 ERA). Green & Balsley will work on Clayton Richard, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he got a crack at starting in September. Padres need to shut down RHP Luis Perdomo & LHP Christian Friedrich soon, so they’ll need all the arms they can get. Preller is doing his job, acquiring whatever pitching he can get, after trading his staff away for prospects or losing them to injury. The Edwin Jackson pick-up (waived by the Marlins) has really helped: 3-1 in 5 starts, with a 3.62 ERA in 32.1 IP.

Padres may use six-man rotation temporarily

Club hopes to limit innings during 16-game stretch without an off-day 8-7-16

Smart. It’s all about managing injury-risk for pitchers. Opposite of the Marlins.

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Fangraphs 8/11/16: The Padres Are Running Like Crazy People [1]

Best Team in MLB 1994

Posted on August 6, 2016 by admin

In August 1994, MLB players walked out after being provoked by their owners threatening to unilaterally impose a salary cap system. Owner representative & MLB commissioner Bud Selig cancelled the World Series a month later, for reasons discussed in greater detail in an earlier piece. [1]

No one knows who would have won the 1994 World Series, but the Montreal Expos and New York Yankees seemed the most likely match-up. Each were clearly the best team in their league. This piece is an analysis of something that never happened, as MLB has never acknowledged a “Best Team of 1994,” in lieu of its traditional ‘World Series champions.’

It seems necessary to do so, in the name of fairness, especially to a group of fans who saw their team robbed of the best chance they ever had to win a World Series. The great irony of all this was the 1994 MLB strike was provoked by the owners & their commissioner– Bud Selig, in the name “small-market competitiveness.”

The scope of this piece is the understanding of numbers, to determine the superior team. Recognizing the correct numbers (and their integrated weighted values), is where math and baseball knowledge blend. Everything a fan needs to know to solve the 1994-season is provided in the numbers below, which were gleaned from baseball-reference.com.

Final note to ATL fans: the Braves divisional winning streak was broken in this season, as they finished second in the NL East to the Expos. Yes, the season was shortened; and yes there were no playoffs, but the record still stands as the Braves losing the division in 1994. The Braves two consecutive division-winning streaks from this era run: 1991-1993, and 1995-2005.

1994 Montreal Expos
74-40, Finished 1st in NL East
Manager: Felipe Alou
GM: Kevin Malone (Promoted 1/27/1994), Farm Dir: Kent Qualls, Scouting Dir: Ed Creech
Scored 585 runs, Allowed 454 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 70-44

Pos Name    Age G   PA AVG/OBP/SLG
C      Darrin Fletcher 27    94   325    .260/.314/.435
1B    Cliff Floyd    21   100 366    .281/.332/.398
2B    Mike Lansing    26    106 435 .266/.328/.368
SS Wil Cordero       22    110 467    .294/.363/.489
3B    Sean Berry       28    103 359 .278/.347/.453
LF    Moises Alou      27    107 471    .339/.397/.592
CF Marquis Grissom 27   110 521    .288/.344/.427
RF Larry Walker    27   103 452 .322/.394/.587

Bench
C Lenny Webster 29       57 166    .273/.370/.448
LF Lou Frazier    29       76 160    .271/.358/.307
2B Juan Bell             26       38 114    .278/.372/.381
LF Rondell White      22       40 109    .278/.358/.464

Starters           Age   W/L ERA G GS IP WHIP
Ken Hill                28    16 5   3.32 23 23 154.2 1.222
Pedro Martinez    22    11 5 3.42 24 23 144.2    1.106
Jeff Fassero 31     8 6   2.99 21 21 138.2    1.147
Butch Henry 25     8 3   2.43 24 15 107.1    1.090
Kirk Rueter 23     7 3   5.17 20 20   92.1 1.397

Bullpen               Age   W/L ERA G GF IP WHIP
John Wetteland    27    4 6    2.83 52 43 63.2    1.052
Mel Rojas             27      3 2    3.32 58 27 84.0 1.095
Gil Heredia           28      6 3    3.46 39   8   75.1    1.301
Jeff Shaw             27      5 2 3.88 46 15 67.1    1.218
Tim Scott     27    5 2    2.70 40 8    53.1    1.294

Expos team fielding % of .979, ranked 11th of 14 NL teams

Stade Olympique · Attendance: 1,276,250 (11th in NL)

Total Expos payroll: $26,388,500 (27th in MLB)

1994 New York Yankees
70-43, Finished 1st in AL East
Manager: Buck Showalter
GM: Gene Michael, Farm Dir: Mitch Lukevics, Scouting Dir: Bill Livesey
Scored 670 runs, Allowed 534 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 68-45

Pos Name Age G PA AVG/OBP/SLG
C Mike Stanley 31 82 333 .300/.384/.545

1B    Don Mattingly      33 97     436 .304/.397/.411
2B    Pat Kelly              26 93     329 .280/.330/.399
SS    Mike Gallego       33 89 357   .239/.327/.359
3B    Wade Boggs    36 97     434   .342/.433/.489
LF    Luis Polonia 30 95     394 .311/.383/.414
CF   Bernie Williams    25 108    475 .289/.384/.453
RF   Paul O’Neill          31 103    443 .359/.460/.603
DH Danny Tartabull    31 104    470    .256/.360/.464

Bench
IF Randy Velarde        31 77     310 .279/.338/.439
UT Jim Leyritz            30 75      293 .265/.365/.518
LF Gerald Williams     27 57       91   .291/.319/.523

Starters Age W/L ERA G GS IP WHIP

Jimmy Key    33     17 4 3.27 25 25 168.0    1.363
Jim Abbott     26       9 8 4.55 24 24 160.1   1.441
Melido Perez       28 9 4   4.10 22 22 151.1 1.269
Terry Mulholland    31      6 7   6.49 24 19 120.2 1.550
Scott Kamieniecki 30       8 6   3.76 22 16 117.1 1.483

Bullpen               Age     W/L   ERA G GF    IP    WHIP
Steve Howe      36        3 0 1.80    40 25 40.0    0.875
Bob Wickman       25        5 4   3.09    53 19 70.0    1.157
Xavier Hernandez 28        4 4 5.85 31 14 40.0    1.725
Donn Pall               32        1 2 3.60     26 7    35.0    1.486
Paul Gibson    34        1 1 4.97    30 15   29.0    1.483

NYY had a fielding % of .982, good for 4th of 14 AL teams

Yankee Stadium · Attendance: 1,675,556 (7th in AL)

Total Yankees payroll: $66,208,334 (1st in MLB)

Wrap-up: Interpreting the correct numbers correctly, we see the Montreal Expos were clearly the best team in MLB in 1994, and likely would have won the World Series had there been a full season. If these teams played our hypothetical World Series ten times, the Expos would win seven. Montreal starting pitching was dominant, and so was their bullpen. The ’94 Expos also got on-base (OBP) & mashed (SLG). They were a bit below-average defensively, which was their only weakness.

The Yankees had a great lineup, a notch better than the outstanding Expos. However, Yankees pitching was several notches worse. Compare ERA & WHIP for both staffs. Thin all-around would be the best description for NYY, as they were overly-reliant on veteran lefty Jimmy Key to be an ace. Self-destructive Steve Howe was their closer. After that it was pedestrian arms at best, in the rotation & pen. The Yankees were good, but not great defensively, so that advantage over the Expos would have been minimal.

Both teams had good managers, as indicated by the fact that both overplayed their Pythagorean projections. Both had bench depth. Compare player ages, and notice how much younger the Expos were, as compared to the veteran Yankees. In 1994, the Expos did it purely with scouting & player development; meanwhile the Yankees (again) had the largest payroll in MLB, as only Bernie Williams was homegrown.

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Best GM in MLB

Posted on July 31, 2016 by admin

The biggest winner at this year’s trade deadline has been the San Diego Padres, as they were involved in virtually every significant deal from mid-June through 7/31. This went all the way back to when GM A. J. Preller sent All-Star closer Fernando Rodney to the Marlins. Since then it was: RHP James Shields (White Sox), LHP Drew Pomeranz (Red Sox), LF BJ Upton (Blue Jays), and RHP’s Cashner & Rea (Marlins), and the final atom bomb– the RF Matt Kemp salary dump to ATL.

Outside of NYY/CHC closer Aroldis Chapman, up until the day of the trade deadline, Preller had the market under his control. This year the trade deadline was extended to 8/1, due to the calendar, and there were 18 deals on that day alone [1], a veritable avalanche of trade activity, finally releasing itself after A.J. Preller dominated the market for 6 weeks.

Nationals land closer Melancon from Pirates 7-30-16
Padres fan here: Great deal for the Nationals. An ace closer is just what they needed. Hopefully the Pirates got value in return. Nats management did its job, now it’s up to Dusty and his players.

Sometime soon, all the baseball ‘experts’ are going to attempt to understand this trade deadline in terms of winners & losers, and will soon come to realize that Padres GM A.J. Preller owned most of this trading season, as he had first skim (Pomeranz), and second skim (Cashner/Rea) at the top prospect cream available, receiving ace-level prospect packages for each.

Rea leaves Marlins debut early with elbow soreness

Velocity dips in 3 1/3-inning start; righty will be evaluated over next couple of days 7-31-16

Really poor scouting & executive decision-making by the Marlins. This was a red-flag injury risk. Colin Rea (a rookie) was at 99.1 IP– his career high, and was struggling to get batters out. Padres were preparing to shut him down, when suddenly he’s sought after by Marlins GM Mike Hill at the deadline. What’s Preller to do? Unfortunately for Rea, Hill was expecting him to be a reliable back-end starter on a contender. That plan lasted 3.1 IP, and now Rea’s on the 15-day DL, with the Marlins back in the market for a starting pitcher. Jared Cosart, perhaps?

It was silly for MIA to rush Rea onto the mound, after he was just dealt the day before. Medical staff- FAIL. Scouting- FAIL. GM- FAIL. This can kill a competitive window for a team on the edge like Miami. By contrast, manager Andy Green & pitching coach Darren Balsley got to look at newly acquired RHP Jared Cosart the same day in a bullpen session, just to get familiar with their latest asset. Their pitching situation is much more desperate than the Marlins, yet the Padres are more patient & thorough. The report was everything checked out, so Cosart starts on 8/2. Meanwhile, he’ll get to know his new teammates for a few days before being asked to go into battle with them, which is nice. He’s pitched only 19 innings this year, and has a live arm w/ sink. Just what the Marlins need.

Final Update 8-3-17: Marlins GM Mike Hill felt compelled to claim ‘damaged goods’ and demanded A.J. Preller to take RHP Colin Rea back, after just one start. The Marlins ordered no MRI on his elbow before insisting, and had no idea to the extent of his injury. Preller defended his position with the arguments given above, at the time of the deal, but felt obliged as ‘good business’ to revisit the deal.

Marlins owner Jeff Loria & GM Mike Hill may have threatened to damage his and the Padres’ reputation, if they didn’t take Rea back. Preller acquiesced on this, and returned A-ball prospect RHP Luis Castillo, who was part of the 7-player deal. Padres immediately welcomed Colin Rea back, despite the abuse his elbow received in his 3-day stint with Marlins. Preller immediately sent for an MRI. If his elbow had no structural damage, then Preller would have immediately won this deal twice. They probably still have regardless, as recovery from Tommy John surgery is now very predictable.

It turns out to be (likely) TJ surgery for Colin Rea, who’s still under team control until 2022. Eighteen months for recovery will put him ready for Spring Training 2018. Young starting pitching proved a valuable commodity on the trade market this year (in case you didn’t notice), so it’s always a good idea to hold onto it.

Final, final updates: After return to SD, Rea to undergo TJ surgery 8-5-16

Padres drawing scrutiny after trades with Marlins, Red Sox by Buster Olney @ ESPN.com 8-6-16 “According to sources [?], the Red Sox have become aware of medical information with Pomeranz that they believe was not properly disclosed during trade talks.”

If the Red Sox & MLB have any evidence, then please reveal it, otherwise this reeks of a smear campaign against the Padres. Would ESPN be part of any East coast bias? A.J. Preller made some great deals for his club this trade season, and MLB is now finally figuring it out. The Marlins GM Mike Hill & owner Jeffrey Loria are children who fail to practice due diligence, and it has cost their organization dearly. This is neither A.J. Preller’s, nor the San Diego Padres’ fault; as they were given complete access to all medical records on Colin Rea. Always consider the source, which is likely Loria here.

In other Padres news…

A.J. Preller handles Braves dirty laundry 7-30-16

RF Matt Kemp dumped to ATL w/ $10.5M, for Cuban OF Hector Olivera, whose $28M/4 years they eat by DFA-ing him, due to a pending misdemeanour assault charge. Padres are eating $40M to move Matt Kemp to ATL, so they can start winning in 2017. This proves a first-rate organization, and Padres fans should be ecstatic, as they now have brains & ownership working together.

Most teams approach the trade deadline, Preller attacked it; as he held his best trade option (RHP Andrew Cashner) hostage, until he was ready to deal him on the best terms possible, at the best time possible. He came at his opposition (all other 29 GM’s) from every angle using: salary dumps (BJ Upton & Matt Kemp) to clog the market for OF sluggers (ex: Jay Bruce blocked, and the Reds got very little for him), while unloading his biggest contract (Kemp $40M), just after trading the top available starting pitcher (Cashner) at ace value.

He tried his best to block C Jonathan Lucroy to Texas with Derek Norris, or at least soften the market. A deal in place with him to CLE was vetoed by Lucroy at the 11th hour, a savior move for the MIL franchise. Their foolish GM David Stearns was about to give away the best position player of the trade season for scraps, because he couldn’t handle the pressure. His emotions must have rose early, in the excitement of finally consummating a deal; then the deflation from the overwhelmingly negative feedback– now realizing he’s made a huge mistake–> only to be rescued by Lucroy vetoing the deal at the finish line. Joy was temporarily restored to Mudville. It just seemed like a lot of work & stress, for NOT trading a player.

Update 8-3-16: Brewers GM David Stearns was rescued again, when Texas approached MIL again on late 7/31, serious about making a deal. MIL ended up getting a much better prospect package with TEX, as compared to the CLE deal for Lucroy. He saved his GM twice.

The best news for Friars fans: outside of LHP Drew Pomeranz to BOS, Preller dealt junk. GM’s and analysts kept trying to wrap their heads around his latest trade & determine what it meant in the market, meanwhile A. J. Preller completely rebuilt his team on-the-fly, gathering top prospects & keeping his best players.

There are two seasons going on in MLB; the one they play on the field from March – October, and the one that goes on year round– which really determines who wins & loses. Padres under A.J Preller & manager Andy Green have revolutionized the game, with their innovative approach to the International draft and now their trade deadline dominance. MLB GM’s are now turning their heads, and the industry will notice.

Padres owner Ron Fowler is the benevolent owner who burns to win, and now fully trusts his GM, and hopefully, there will be no more meddling. This is the best type of MLB-owner that can be hoped for under capitalism.
COO Mike Dee is #2.
GM A.J. Preller is the deadliest of vipers.
First-year manager Andy Green is the Padres squeaky-clean front-man to the media, and already one of the games top skippers.

Padres’ HR streak comes to a halt in loss 7-30-16
The 2016 Padres are an incredible & most unlikely team to share the NL consecutive-game HR mark. They did it while trading away half their team for prospects, which is quite remarkable if you consider it. Real Padres supporters thank them for giving fans something to cheer about on the field.

Final Analysis & Thoughts 7-31-16

Padres sunk costs (2016-17): Jedd Gyorko ($7M), BJ Upton ($17M), Matt Kemp (~$40M), Andrew Cashner ($2M), James Shields ($20M)– if he doesn’t opt out after this season.

Food for thought: there is a strong possibility that Matt Kemp was forced upon newly-minted GM A.J. Preller in 2014 by ownership as he arrived. Call it an organizational rumor. It makes sense, if you consider that Preller is probably much too smart to get sucked into a deal like Matt Kemp’s contract. For that, fans misjudged him as incompetent at first, simply because they didn’t (and couldn’t) know the circumstances.

Whoever was truly responsible for the albatross, it was surely the worst deal in Preller’s name, and he’s over it in less than 2 years, which shows what a brilliant magician he is. Padres fans are excited that ownership can handle it. It’s his creativity & decisiveness in action that currently make him the best GM in MLB. Since last season ended, he has lapped the field, and written a new playbook on baseball front office management. Padres had a top-5 Amateur draft in June, and top-2 International draft in July, and dominated this trade season. Pretty impressive for a first-time GM in his second year.

I project the Padres to finish 2016 at 70-92, which coincides with their current winning percentage. They will likely finish 4th, in front of ARZ who are a complete disaster– sunk by bad trades & the Zack Grienke contract. In 2017 the Padres will easily overtake COL who are perennially in a holding pattern, and challenge the troubled LA Dodgers for second in the division. Giants still project to be superior in the NL West.

>>>>—————–//—————>

Marlins GM’s Mike Hill wasn’t ready for this kind of assault from Preller. He got fleeced and cost his promising team their season, and possibly its future. He deserves to be fired, along with a few other GM’s.

Toronto Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins deserves special mention, for driving the hardest consummated bargain on Preller. BJ Upton was probably the most difficult deal AJP had to swallow, because he was being short-changed on actual value, and the Jays had a huge need in CF. Preller ate $17M out of $23M owed, to dump him & gauge the market which was part of his greater purpose.
White Sox got middled on RHP James Shields, and now have a huge headache with his performance and possible opt-out situation. Preller doesn’t have any time for this, he’s busy building a Padres championship roster.
The Padres turnover is complete, and it’s now time for the ‘baby Pads’ which will feature more plate selectivity, higher OBP, and more SLG– up & down the lineup. Padres will play solid defense, while being aggressively smart on the bases. Preller’s Padres will feature hard throwers from both sides, in the rotation and bullpen. Have you noticed how many pitchers Preller has acquired recently? That’s what carries the most trade value, as we have seen. Systems are surely being put in place for improved injury prevention & rehabilitation.

Preller dumped Upton & Kemp on the market, just as opposing GM’s were hoping to move their own contracts, and start rebuilding with a nice prospect packages. Outfielders Jay Bruce (CIN), Carlos Beltran (NYY), Josh Reddick (OAK) all moved, but didn’t net as much in return as they should have. For example: Reddick had to be packaged with starting pitcher Rich Hill to maximize the return from the LAD.

Notes on Social Media & MLB

Up to half the 30 MLB teams may have been heavily relying on social media monitoring, as a form of ‘advanced scouting’ during this trade season. All teams use this to some degree. Raw fan data is valuable to an organization that listens, and all have access to it. Note that much of this ‘data’ can be manipulated and/or comprised in some essential way, if safeguards aren’t in place. This renders the ‘data’ useless, or possibly worse– vulnerable to a well-laid trap. The thesis here is: far too many unsuspecting organizations relied on social media monitoring far too much this trade deadline, and a few possibly got fleeced for it. Some were rendered impotent and bewildered by a rogue GM, who broke many long-standing rules of the trade deadline.

Bottom-tier front offices can easily be misled by online opinion leaders, whom influence what the majority believe & think. I played my part, by becoming becoming a most-respected commentator in the MLB.com forum in less than a year of activity. This MLB forum is shared by thousands daily, and influences organizational & media opinions by the minute. That’s serious clout.

I began this task by energizing a demoralized Padres faithful, online only, at the end of their miserable 2015 campaign. I engaged ~20-or-so active posters in the Padres.com forum, and won their confidence & trust, by telling them the truth. I demanded accountability in return. The message unconsciously became: we’re now all in this together, it’s a team mission which includes everybody, and failure is not an option.

Now to stay focused & consistent, improving our understanding of what AJP was doing, because no one had ever seen a GM like this before. Example: Four Rule 5 draft picks last December; one was RHP Luis Perdomo, who now projects as a top-of-the-rotation starter. Preller managed to retain another Rule 5 selection, OF Jabari Blash, by making a deal with the Mariners after the Padres could no longer afford to keep him on their 25-man roster. He was then optioned to AAA-El Paso, where he raked, and he’s now replaced Matt Kemp in RF. Jabari Blash is 27 and a long-shot at best, but the point is the process, which is a winning one of rewarding hard work with a deserved opportunity.

I patiently explained setbacks so understanding was quicker, and lessons were deeply absorbed, so everybody could now begin to find their own voice. After awhile, I mostly let the discussions run themselves, because I always knew another forum leader was watching & correcting as needed. I still check daily or so, and if there was something grossly off-track, I still patiently point out mistakes and reveal unseen facets, which empower others. Mostly, I speak with the ‘Like’ button for top comments. Do it that way, and everything flows towards success & love.

I discovered the tremendous power I wield, becoming a dominant commenter in MLB.com fan forum discussions. Everyone respected me instantly, and I was virtually impossible to dismiss, as long as I was polite & respectful. Yankees, Red Sox & Dodgers forums can be intimidating to comment in (as an opponent). I now can consistently drop in on them, make whatever point I need to make (however I need to make it), and then leave with grace & dignity. Sometimes I go back to check, sometimes not. Note: mistakes must always be corrected, as someone always notices and remembers.

At this trade deadline, Padres faithful were a mobilized & alert fighting unit. Not everyone exactly on the same page, but more than enough understood the mission– dump contracts & get top prospects. I live in Florida, and most of the Padres games are late with 10:40 PM EDT starts. I rely on Padres comrades to update me on any latest breaking Padres news. Breaking West coast news sometimes takes an hour or two to travel back east. That keeps me playing from behind at times, and that’s not where you want to be with AJP– in anything.

About 8-10 hardcore Padres fans have been nothing short of invaluable during my self-imposed assignment, as my ‘eyes & ears’ of the San Diego Padres social media world. These fans actually go to the games, or at least watch most of them on TV, supplying first-hand accounts of the games, with their impressions. Many live in San Diego, and share all the local buzz. Minor league reports are now shared & discussed in depth, regularly.

Conversely, I’ve only seen ~ a dozen games this season. I’ve followed more games on MLB Gameday, and it’s a unique view with scouting value, but it’s limited. Padres fans now share everything they know openly, in a dedicated & monitored forum. This forum is not nearly as vulnerable to outside attacks (other team’s fans), as the Padres fan core is now more knowledgeable & resolute.

For example: I fell asleep bewildered on the mentioned BJ Upton to TOR deal (7-26-16). Next morning I entered the fan forum, and joined a lively discussion with everyone (50+ at least) focusing on their reasons as to why AJP made that crazy deal? It didn’t make any sense, with what everyone knew. There’s something we don’t know? Sometimes it’s such a simple answer, you don’t consider it. Leadership, serious purpose, and everyone invested, is what got me what I needed to know in less than an hour.

Upton to TOR was Preller finding out how much the Padres were going to have to eat in order to move Matt Kemp. After the Upton deal, I had estimated $40-45M in the forum, and published an analysis write-up, linked at the bottom. Preller got the best deal he could on the Matt Kemp dump, as he learned the absolute market limits from the Upton deal a few days earlier.

When I figured this out, I immediately dispatched my distillation back into the forum. Now most understand & accept the official Padres line, which is hidden to most. That does make a GM’s job easier. How much? I can’t say, but it is significant, and deserves more study.

The point is, the Padres instantly have 50+ loyalists spreading the word, strengthening the Padres ‘social media trending’ line. Trust me: it’s monitored & manipulated, because it matters; and Preller got all the help he needed (and more), from an energized online fanbase this time around. Opposition fans and data harvesters invade all team’s forums. No longer are they allowed to piss all over the Padres forum, without censure and repercussions. Yankees & Red Sox fans NEVER allow it, why should the Padres?

Final Update 8-4-17: One last serious organization improvement that deserves mention is the addition of Padres beat writer A.J. Cassavell, who replaced Corey Brock during Spring Training. Cassavell’s reporting is more frequent, and has much more thought & depth than his predecessor. That has really helped improve fan dialogue in their forum.

Padres are officially no longer chumps. AJP just revolutionized MLB, much like in Michael Lewis’ sketch of Oakland A’s GM Billie Beane– Moneyball (2003). I have no material proof concerning any of what I have just claimed, other than the content of this piece, which was updated in real-time during the weekend carnage, then finally updated on 8-4-16. It’s accuracy, as related to what actually happened, speaks for itself.

By Monday 8/1 Preller was reclaiming his 26-YO starting pitcher, for a 23-YO A-ball pitching prospect, which satisfied the opposing GM in the deal. This was complete dominance for Preller over many weaker GM’s, who didn’t understand this market and how AJP controlled it up until the next-to-last day. It takes planning & guts to eat $60M in salary, but what truly upped their value was the timing. When played at precisely the correct moment, dumps will also block other teams from getting what they need for similar-type players.

Matt Kemp to ATL was brilliantly timed in the evening of 7/30, as it depressed the OF market just as selling teams had to make a deal. For example: Reds GM Walt Jocketty didn’t have a clue on the market for Jay Bruce, and probably should have kept him, instead of getting reamed by the Mets GM Sandy Alderson. Jocketty also desperately & unsuccessfully tried to trade SS Zack Cozart to the Mariners, but the return was too little even for him.

When it was all over, too many GM’s had enough of Preller’s antics, and no one made a deal for the two most valuable commodities remaining on the market: lefty relievers Ryan Buchter & Brad Hand, both effective and team-controllable for years to come. Preller’s price was too high, so he held on to them, which is what smart GM’s do. When the trade season was all over, about 6-8 buying teams (BOS, TEX, CLE, SFG, WAS, NYM, CHC) got what they needed; a few others didn’t (MIA, CWS, BAL); and too many sellers got short-changed, One GM was ready for more, but it was all over– just as planned. [2]

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The bizarreness of this trade deadline is wrapped up in it’s final deal, Rays sent LHP Matt Moore to SFG for 3B Matt Duffy and 2 iffy prospects. Rays GM Matt Silverman was interviewed before the Rays/Royals game that evening (8/1/16), saying they finished the deal with <10 seconds to go. He should have hung up on the Giants with 20 to go.

The deal wasn’t announced by MLB until ~6:00 PM EDT, nearly two hours after the deadline expired, so therefore Matt Moore (a TJ reclamation with ace stuff), and 3 years of affordable team controllability remaining, is suddenly moved for comparatively less than Pomeranz or Cashner.

Moore (whose velocity & spin-rate are now returning) was the most valuable pitcher who moved in this year’s market, where pitching was they most desperately sought-after commodity. Moore was dealt (squandered) in a last-second rush, by a GM who understands nothing about winning baseball or player value. Silverman is the same GM who dealt Wil Myers for Steven Souza, Jr.– with the Gnats being the intermediary.

Ric Size

Songwriter, Musician, Artist

Category Archives: Economics